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Spotlight a Gravitational Shift to Shibuya November 2017

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Spotlight a Gravitational Shift to Shibuya November 2017 Savills World Research Japan Spotlight A gravitational shift to Shibuya November 2017 savills.com.jp/research Spotlight | A gravitational shift to Shibuya November 2017 Savills World Research Japan Spotlight A gravitational shift to Shibuya November 2017 Spotlight A gravitational shift to Shibuya savills.com.jp/research “Shibuya is undergoing transformational development that may change the power SUMMARY dynamics in the C5W. A substantial increase in Shibuya is going through a large redevelopment office and retail space, as well as infrastructure phase which could boost the area’s presence and improvements, will bring more people, capital, competitiveness. and vibrancy to Shibuya.” Total office and retail stock will expand by over 800,000 sq m through 2023, adding space larger than Roppongi Hills, and potentially generating significant current strong investment climate, it is Preface footfall. Tokyo’s real estate market continues essential to take local macroeconomic variables into account and consider its upward cycle at a gradual pace. A Shibuya has been a hub for rapidly growing and a long-term investment horizon. combination of slow but gradual rental high-flying startups and technology companies. The Considering these factors, Shibuya’s growth and a large inflow of capital is area enjoys a desirable tenant profile. pushing up asset prices and limiting significant redevelopment projects and favourable fundamentals are likely to affordable investment opportunities. The retail customer base is likely to widen to make it an attractive investment target. Given robust pre-leasing activity in include more young professionals with stronger newly developed buildings, gradual spending power. growth is likely to continue, at least Shibuya transformation Shibuya is currently undergoing a toward the end of 2018. Tokyo is Demographic trends are favourable, showing expecting a large upcoming office transformative redevelopment phase, improving income levels in Shibuya and increasing supply toward the Tokyo Olympics rivalling Roppongi Hills in terms of young populations in neighbouring wards. in 2020, though impact is expected floor area. New projects expected to to vary by submarket. Under the complete between 2017 and 2023 MAP 1 Shibuya development projects, 2017–2023 Projects GFA (sq m) Completion 1 Shibuya Cast 35,000 2017 3 1 6 2 Hulic &New Shibuya 2,000 2017 8 2 7 3 Shibuya Koen-dori Project 5,000 2017 4 Shibuya Stream 117,000 2018 11 5 Nampeidai Project 47,000 2019 6 Udagawa-cho Project 38,000 2019 10 7 Miyashita Park TBD 2019 8 Parco Part 1 & 3 65,000 2019 9 4 9 Dogenzaka 1-chome Station Front 59,000 2019 12 5 10 Shibuya Scramble Square 181,000 2019 11 Miyamasuzaka Building 15,000 2020 2017 after 2017 12 Shibuya Sakuragaoka-guchi District 253,000 2023 Source: Press releases, Savills Research & Consultancy savills.com.jp/research 02 Spotlight | A gravitational shift to Shibuya November 2017 total over 800,000 sq m of GFA. GRAPH 1 Tokyu Corporation is spearheading Office supply in Shibuya, 2010–2023 projects close to Shibuya Station, and their positive impact should Historical avg. Forecast avg. spread throughout the market. Further 250,000 redevelopment along Inokashira- dori and Koen-dori, including old 200,000 Parco sites, will revitalise the north- western area of the ward. The recent development of retail neighbourhoods 150,000 along Meiji-dori should also improve connectivity of Harajuku and Shibuya Shibuya Hikarie NRA (sqm) and could significantly increase footfall 100,000 between the two areas (see our November 2017 Retail Spotlight). 50,000 Redevelopment additionally includes infrastructure improvement which will 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-23 enhance connectivity and walkability, especially within and around Shibuya Source: Sanko Estate, Bureau of Environment, Savills Research & Consultancy Station. New passages, decks, and GRAPH 2 open squares will be introduced both above and below ground and Grade A office rents by ward, Q4/2009–Q3/2017 significantly improve access between Shibuya Chiyoda Chuo Minato Shinjuku buildings and stations, which used to 45,000 be an issue. Rapid office rental increases 40,000 have preceded the wave of new 18% developments. Average Grade A 35,000 rents in Shibuya have grown by 51% between Q1/2012 and Q3/2017 (Map 30,000 2). Overtaking Shinjuku, Chuo, and 37% Minato, Shibuya has become the JPY / tsubo / month second most expensive ward in Tokyo 25,000 and has quickly narrowed the rental gap between it and Chiyoda. 20,000 Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3 Shibuya Hikarie opened in 2012, 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 17 just as the ward was beginning its Source: Savills Research & Consultancy MAP 2 Grade A rents by submarket, Q3/2017 vs Q1/2012 Grade A buildings, average passing rent + CAM per tsubo in thousand JPY. Coloured areas for illustrative purposes only. Source: Savills Research & Consultancy savills.com.jp/research 03 Spotlight | A gravitational shift to Shibuya November 2017 rental climb. Hikarie is one of the pun on the translation of Shibuya GRAPH 3 largest office buildings in Shibuya, – literally “bitter valley” – and the IT worker growth, 2005–2015 with about 38,000 sq m in NRA and IT term “bit”. Shibuya’s vibrant and currently achieves the market’s top innovative culture was bolstered by rents. Shibuya has a shortage of such arriving fashion, music, publishing, and large offices, and an influx of new advertising industries and attracted Minato 20% large-scale, high-spec buildings should ambitious entrepreneurs. Although boost the area’s competitiveness as the Bit Valley movement lost steam an office market. By 2020, the stock of after the global internet bubble Shibuya 20% large offices that Savills monitors in our burst and competition from other survey is expected to increase by 35%. submarkets intensified, Shibuya’s Chiyoda 9% entrepreneurial sprit endured and the Shibuya’s tenant profile city has remained popular among One of the forces driving changes startups. Shinjuku 8% in Shibuya’s office market is the technology companies concentrating The number of IT workers in Shibuya in the area. has grown by about 20% between Chuo -2% 2005 and 2015, significantly The first wave of IT companies arrived faster than in the other central five -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% in Shibuya in the mid to late 1990s. wards except Minato. Companies Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication, Savills Research & Consultancy The ward was called “Bit Valley”, a such as CyberAgent, DeNA, and MAP 3 GMO Internet have headquarters Domestically listed IT companies, 2017 near Shibuya Station, and group companies are creating clusters in the vicinity (Map 3). Major developers including Mitsubishi Estate and Mitsui Fudosan are creating incubation offices and are actively trying to attract tenants in promising Shibuya Station fields such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and robotics. Shibuya offers landlords an edge in such recruiting efforts because the ward’s environment naturally attracts startups and rapidly growing companies. Shibuya also attracts talent due to its excellent accessibility. Shibuya Station is serviced by nine train lines and contains multiple universities within a short radius. The steady growth of Ebisu Station young populations in neighbouring wards implies that Shibuya has reliable talent pools to support further workforce increases. For example, most commuters to Shibuya come from Setagaya Ward, which saw the largest net migration Company Revenue (JPY billion) Operating profit (JPY billion) Establishment year of 20 to 29 year-olds between 2014 and 2016 in Tokyo. Shibuya has also CyberAgent 311 37 1998 seen the highest increase in taxable JAE 210 12 1953 income among all of Tokyo’s 23 wards, likely because Shibuya houses better mixi 207 89 1999 paid, higher income earners. This in D.A. Consortium 185 7 1996 turn probably led to the development of additional upscale residential NOF 174 24 1949 properties, creating an even more DeNA 144 23 1999 favourable environment for attracting talent. GMO Internet 135 17 1991 Trend Micro 132 34 1989 The factor that is holding back the office market in Shibuya is a shortage Source: © OpenStreetMap (www.openstreetmap.org/copyright), Nikkei, Savills Research & Consultancy of office space. Compared to other savills.com.jp/research 04 Spotlight | A gravitational shift to Shibuya November 2017 central wards, Shibuya’s office market and should increase the number of Shibuya has the second highest ratio is much smaller and its Grade A stock workers coming to the city. This will of overseas visitors to total lodging represents only 7% of the C5W. Large, make the city’s demographics and guests in the C5W, and is especially high-spec offices in the pipeline should retail clientele more mature. The popular among western tourists, for absorb currently unaccommodated change should diversify the retail whom the Japanese government has demand and possibly win over tenants customer base in Shibuya, and the earmarked a budget to attract for previously lost to other submarkets. city should benefit from increases in diversification. According to the Japan Rental levels of new projects near consumers with more spending power. Tourism Agency, Shibuya’s budget and Shibuya Station are rumoured to be city hotels were nearly 90% occupied strong, and pre-leasing activities are Inbound tourism may be another in 1H/2017, and 48% of total guests also going well. tailwind for Shibuya’s retail market. were overseas tourists. Shibuya is a hub for startups and will remain one going forward. For GRAPH 4 instance, according to Tokyu Research 20-29 y.o. net migration (2014–2016) vs commuters Institute, Shibuya has the most coworking locations in the C5W and to Shibuya (2015) almost doubled its figure from 37 Net migration (LHS) Commuters to Shibuya (RHS) 18,000 30,000 locations in 2013 to 72 locations in 16,000 2017. Many coworking offices host 25,000 networking events and study sessions 14,000 Commuters to Shibuya for like-minded entrepreneurs and are 12,000 20,000 helping develop Shibuya’s grass- 10,000 roots innovative culture.
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