Fighter Aircraft Market Update 2015-2016 Introduction
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FIGHTER AIRCRAFT MARKET UPDATE 2015-2016 INTRODUCTION Worldwide, an estimated 4,000 29 countries fighters, valued between $260-$367 This report is intended to provide a billion are forecast to be procured surface-level overview of current over the next 15 years. Despite the global fighter aircraft inventories rapid increase in Unmanned Aerial and to highlight key active Vehicles (UAVs) numbers programmes either rumoured or in worldwide and future plans for development. Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs), the fighter market is still Please note that all information buoyant. Fighter programmes are herein is subject to change. planned to continue well into the Defence IQ endeavours to ensure 2020s in the U.S.A, Russia, China, accuracy wherever possible, but India and Sweden, while Japan, errors are often unavoidable. Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey Information is intended for have plans to enter the fighter reference purposes only. We market with their own indigenous accept no responsibility for the designs. The largest fighter use or application of this programme is the F-35 Joint Strike information. We suggest that Fighter, with over 3,000 of the readers contact the specific aircraft currently planned for government and military delivery to 12 countries. programme offices if seeking to confirm the reliability of any data. Fighter requirements have been identified in 29 countries, while active fighter procurement programmes are also under way in 1 MARKET SUMMARY THE 2015+ FIGHTER LANDSCAPE IN SUMMARY MARKET SUMMARY As underscored at the last Paris Air leaders in this field, including Show (June 2015), many western Northrop Grumman, are also fighter jet manufacturers are in the known to have stood up teams to process of hunting critical export begin research and development deals to avoid having to close work on advanced, optionally- existing production lines early. As it manned platforms. These aircraft stands, beyond the bulk of the will be designed to compete for international market already being orders in around ten years time swallowed by Lockheed Martin F- when the likes of the F-35, Sukhoi 35 commitments, Dassault PAK FA and Chengdu J-20 are all Aviation’s Rafale will take the next expected to have established their (albeit, considerably smaller) slice place in the skies. of the business. Major international military spenders outside of Europe In spite of the many recent – particularly India, Egypt, Qatar procurement decisions, the fighter and Brazil – have already opted for market is anything but ‘sewn up’. Rafale or the Saab Gripen in recent Not only has Dassault only built its deals, leaving the likes of Boeing pace on deals signed within the and Eurofighter in heated past eight months (marking its first competition to win contracts ever export order for Rafale this elsewhere. Failing to do so could year), but several ‘game-changing’ see iconic aircraft such as the F-15, nations remain in positions of F/A-18 and Typhoon become the uncertainty. Internal bureaucracy last of their kind within the next five leaves question marks over years. seemingly done deals while prospects of programme delays are Already, sixth-generation fighters almost a certainty. Likewise, global are absorbing corners of budgets. conflicts – most unanticipated, such The Pentagon, for example, made a as the clashes in Ukraine and the 2015 budget request for studies to surge of ISIL in the Middle East – begin ahead of a projected will also continue to turn this acquisition programme scheduled market on a dime, feeding or for fiscal year 2018. Meanwhile, reducing the need for high-end air several defence and aerospace power. 3 MARKET SUMMARY As the world has moved forward, demands, lifecycle costs have the very purpose of today’s fighter become a fixation for many has evolved. Dogfighting has programme developers. become a diminishing requirement, with air-to-ground/long-range In the words of Lt Gen (Rtd) David bombing becoming the common Deptula, former USAF Deputy Chief task. Future conflicts, under which a of Staff for ISR, “As we move into an more contested battlespace may era with fewer and fewer resources reappear, are predicted to call for into an era where leadership of long-range air-to-air capabilities as countries around the world are sensors and weaponry becoming determining to spend less and less increasingly advanced. At the same on individual security, we need to time, the myriad of demands on the think more about a proactive modern multirole jet has expanded means – or what I call a to include greater provision ‘consortium approach’ – to security towards intelligence, surveillance strategy. We need to explore the and reconnaissance (ISR) missions, carrying of an increasingly complex as well as command and control, global security environment, with electronic warfare, close air budget constraints, to fully leverage support, and even satellite launch. international coalition based While this model can help militaries security solutions. That means, ‘do more with less’, the pressure once again, we've got to look at a continues to build on the completely different paradigm in commercial industry to outfit these terms of the ends, ways and means complex suites into singular, that we conduct acquisitions, lasting, and agile packages. training engagements, policy and Considering the fact that many treaty design and execution.” nations, particularly in Europe, have slashed their fleet numbers in half in the past five years, it is no surprise that on top of these 4 MARKET SUMMARY For the coming years, the market be a service that is guaranteed both will therefore be swayed at home and away. predominantly by the levels of “The answer is to establish a communication, response and relationship and a contract that flexibility offered between the defines the ability and the aerospace and defence industry circumstances under which and the end-user. Many of the industry will meet the support companies already involved in the requirements when and where the fighter domain have a strong agreed circumstances can be met. pedigree, but preference now will It does not mean that industry will be placed primarily on those always be willing or able to meet entities most capable of providing those needs ‘off the bat’. Air forces operational and forward-based will continue to need to provide solutions for operational missions. their inherent support for the first team ‘out of the trap’ and for those Air Chief Marshal Sir Stephen scenarios when the required safety Dalton (Rtd) (Chief of the Air Staff and security requirements cannot 2009-2013 and chairman of the be established or financially 2015 International Fighter afforded!” conference), said: “If an air force ‘decides’ or is directed to use the ‘more cost-effective’ service that industry can provide then it has to 5 MARKET SUMMARY: REGIONAL MARKETS EUROPE The era of austerity has plagued defence budgets in the European continent since the beginning of the fiscal crisis. As one of the main hubs of fighter development and That said, several European-based production, the market has become companies will continue to flourish highly active here in securing as the likes of Dassault andSaab export orders and in efforts to win favour in foreign markets. remain ahead of operational Eastwards, Russia is naturally requirements. The EU continues to pouring resources into fresh and propose efforts to pool and share existing fighter aircraft resources, and top encourage an programmes. Sukhoi has open market that offers lifeblood to dominated the country’s export local SMEs. Outside of the business over the once iconic MiG homegrown Eurofighter Typhoon – aircraft company since the fall of now facing the possibility of ending the Soviet Union, forcing the latter production as original consortium to rely purely on maintenance and countries wrap up their orders – the upgrades of its ageing fleets across introduction of the Joint Strike the world. Fighter will represent the most significant change within the region, with commitments now being fulfilled by Britain, Italy, the Netherlands, and Norway, and other potential customers in line. BRIEFINGS AT INTERNATIONAL FIGHTER 2015 INCLUDE: Air Commodore Ian Duguid OBE Major General Laurian Anastasof Typhoon Force Commander Chief of the Air Staff Royal Air Force Romanian Air Force Lieutenant General Sergei Drozdov Colonel Didier Polomé Commander of the Air Force Chief of Operations Armed Forces of Ukraine Belgian Air Component Major General Jan Śliwka Lieutenant Colonel Stefan Kleinheyer Chief of Polish Air Force Inspectorate Station Commander, Tactical Air Wing 31 Polish Armed Forces German Air Force 6 MARKET SUMMARY: REGIONAL MARKETS NORTH AMERICA The U.S.A. remains the largest spender of military aircraft with a projected expenditure of over $260- bn by 2025 and as the leading budget holder on the JSF, will Canada has yet to officially decide continue to see the biggest slice of on its next fighter despite previously the fighter market revenue in the being set to acquire 65 F-35s. coming years. While Lockheed Controversies surrounding ongoing Martin’s “last manned fighter” has cost overruns on the programme confirmed sales in Europe, the and budget restrictions have Middle East and Asia, its placed the order on hold. (upgraded) F-16 Fighting Falcon will remain in production until at least 2017, having been exported to the UAE and Iraq, and should see continued activity in the second- hand market. Meanwhile, Boeing looks to press as much business as it can from its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet to the foreign market as the U.S. reallocates its budget to the F- 35. BRIEFINGS AT INTERNATIONAL FIGHTER 2015 INCLUDE: Major General Jerry Harris Nathan 'Luthar' Hill Vice Commander, Air Combat Division Chief, CAF Training, Air Combat Command , U.S. Air Force Command , U.S. Air Force 7 MARKET SUMMARY: REGIONAL MARKETS ASIA-PACIFIC The region’s two mega powers – China and India – represent two sides of a coin.