MEGA: a Retrospective Assessment

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MEGA: a Retrospective Assessment April 2005 A Mackinac Center Report MEGA: A Retrospective Assessment Michael D. LaFaive and Michael Hicks, Ph.D. A study of the Michigan Economic Growth Authority, the State of Michigan’s primary tax incentive program The Mackinac Center for Public Policy is a nonpartisan research and educa- tional institute devoted to improving the quality of life for all Michigan citizens by promoting sound solutions to state and local policy questions. The Mackinac Center assists policy makers, scholars, business people, the media, and the public by providing objective analysis of Michigan issues. The goal of all Center reports, commentaries, and educational programs is to equip Michigan citizens and other decision makers to better evaluate policy options. The Mackinac Center for Public Policy is broadening the debate on issues that have for many years been dominated by the belief that government intervention should be the standard solution. Center publications and programs, in contrast, offer an integrated and comprehensive approach that considers: All Institutions. The Center examines the important role of voluntary associations, business, community and family, as well as government. All People. Mackinac Center research recognizes the diversity of Michigan citizens and treats them as individuals with unique backgrounds, circumstances, and goals. All Disciplines. Center research incorporates the best understanding of economics, science, law, psychology, history, and morality, moving beyond mechanical cost/benefit analysis. All Times. Center research evaluates long-term consequences, not simply short-term impact. Committed to its independence, the Mackinac Center for Public Policy neither seeks nor accepts any government funding. It enjoys the support of foundations, individuals, and businesses who share a concern for Michiganʼs future and recognize the important role of sound ideas. The Center is a nonprofit, tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. For more information on programs and publications of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, please contact: Mackinac Center for Public Policy 140 West Main Street P.O. Box 568 Midland, Michigan 48640 (989) 631-0900 • Fax (989) 631-0964 www.mackinac.org • [email protected] MEGA: A Retrospective Assessment by Michael D. LaFaive and Michael J. Hicks, Ph.D. __________________________ Copyright © 2005 by the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, Midland, Michigan Permission to reprint in whole or in part is hereby granted, provided that the Mackinac Center for Public Policy is properly cited. ISBN: 1-890624-43-8 S2005-02 Guarantee of Quality Scholarship The Mackinac Center for Public Policy is committed to delivering the highest quality and most reliable research on Michigan issues. The Center guarantees that all original factual data are true and correct and that information attributed to other sources is accurately represented. The Center encourages rigorous critique of its research. If the accuracy of any material fact or reference to an independent source is questioned and brought to the Center’s attention with supporting evidence, the Center will respond in writing. If an error exists, it will be noted in an errata sheet that will accompany all subsequent distribution of the publication, which constitutes the complete and final remedy under this guarantee. MEGA: A Retrospective Assessment The Mackinac Center for Public Policy MEGA: A Retrospective Assessment by Michael D. LaFaive and Michael J. Hicks, Ph.D. Table of Contents Executive Summary.....................................................................................1 An Overview of the Michigan Economic Growth Authority ...........................1 MEGA’s Track Record.....................................................................................1 Direct Jobs .......................................................................................................... 2 Indirect Jobs........................................................................................................ 3 An Econometric Evaluation of MEGA’s Economic Impact ............................3 Potential Explanations for MEGA’s Lack of Economic Impact ......................4 Political and Business Incentives Can Interfere With MEGA’s Policy Goals .... 4 The Inherent Complexity of the Marketplace...................................................... 5 Assumptions in the “REMI” Modeling Employed by MEGA ............................. 5 The Problem of Ensuring MEGA Credits Are Necessary ................................... 6 Policy Recommendations .................................................................................6 End the MEGA Program..................................................................................... 6 Other Reforms..................................................................................................... 6 Introduction..................................................................................................9 MEGA: Origin and Evolution....................................................................9 History ..............................................................................................................9 Structure and Procedure..................................................................................10 MEGA LAW....................................................................................................... 13 Public Act 144 of 2000...................................................................................13 Public Act 428 of 2000...................................................................................13 Public Act 248 of 2003...................................................................................13 Public Act 81 of 2004.....................................................................................14 Public Act 398 of 2004...................................................................................14 MEGA’s Track Record.............................................................................15 The Scope of MEGA Packages ......................................................................15 MEGA Job Projections and Subsequent Results............................................21 Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 21 MEGA Job and Project Performance ............................................................... 22 April 2005 i The Mackinac Center for Public Policy MEGA: A Retrospective Assessment Case Studies ......................................................................................................26 Three Major News Events .........................................................................26 Kmart Corp. ..............................................................................................27 Covisint, Inc. .............................................................................................28 Other Examples.........................................................................................28 Michigan’s Economic Climate Under MEGA...................................................29 Summary of Findings.........................................................................................30 Econometric Evaluation of MEGA’s Effectiveness................................32 Past Studies of Targeted Tax Incentives.........................................................32 Theoretical Considerations in the Model........................................................34 Modeling the Economic Impacts of MEGA...................................................35 Results of the Estimation................................................................................36 County-Level Results.........................................................................................36 State-Level Results ............................................................................................37 Business-Sector Results: Manufacturing, Warehousing and Construction.......37 Summary of Findings .....................................................................................38 MEGA: Explanations ................................................................................39 Technical Considerations in the Modeling Used by MEGA..........................40 Direct Cost of State Tax Relief ..........................................................................40 The Local Incentives in MEGA Deals Are Not Directly Modeled.....................41 The Cost of New State and Local Government Services ...................................43 Differences Between High- and Low-Unemployment Areas .............................43 Failed Employment and Wage Assumptions .....................................................44 The Problem of Ensuring MEGA Credits Are Necessary..............................44 Walden Book Company Inc. ..............................................................................45 Compuware Corp. .............................................................................................45 Owens Corning..................................................................................................46 Complex Human Factors...................................................................................46 A Lack of Data on Rejected Firms ....................................................................46 Survey Data .......................................................................................................47
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