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Challenging Political Dominance in Montenegro

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Challenging Political Dominance in Montenegro Challenging Political Dominance in Montenegro Master Thesis For the award of the academic degree of Master of Arts (MA) at the Karl-Franzens-University of Graz Submitted by Alberto SARTORI at the Centre for Southeast European Studies Supervisor: Ass. Prof. Dr. Hrvoje PAIĆ Graz, 2019 Abstract Much research on Montenegro’s political system focuses on the outstanding longevity in office of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), often granting limited attention to opposition parties’ role within such competitive authoritarian regime. This thesis aims at filling the gap with a case study addressing how political party opposition strategies impacted on DPS dominance in post- independence Montenegro. It starts by reviewing how DPS skewed competition to establish and maintain dominance from the first multiparty elections within the electoral, parliamentary, and executive arenas of party competition. It then looks into how non-governing political parties expressed their opposition after independence, through the analysis of their strategic behaviour in comparison with successful opposition strategies from other competitive authoritarian regimes (i.e. activist recruitment, creation of a ‘regime cleavage’, coalition building, and reliance on local level office). It finds opposition parties in Montenegro are engaged in competing against each other rather than pooling resources and efforts against the dominant, behaving as alternation in office solely depended upon external actors or DPS internal divisions. Rather than fragmentation, ceaseless intra-opposition competition represents the crucial problem when it comes to political party opposition strategies in post-independence Montenegro: it undermined their credibility in the eyes of the electorate and other actors, as well as evidenced limited ability to learn from past mistakes. Thus, this thesis points to political party opposition strategies as crucial in accounting for continued DPS dominance, facilitating its reproduction in all the arenas of party competition. Keywords Montenegro; political parties; political opposition; dominance; competitive authoritarian regimes. 1 Table of Contents Abbreviations ....................................................................................................................................... 3 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 4 Chapter 1 – Research Structure and Approach .................................................................................... 5 1.1 State of the Art ........................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Research Question and Objectives ........................................................................................... 11 1.3 Theoretical Approach ............................................................................................................... 12 1.4 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 18 Chapter 2 – A Review of DPS Dominance ........................................................................................ 21 2.1 Montenegro’s Political Monolith: 1990 - 1997........................................................................ 21 2.2 (Re-)Configuring Dominance through Controlled Liberalisation: 1997 - 2006 ...................... 26 2.3 Maintaining Dominance after Independence ........................................................................... 34 2.4 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 41 Chapter 3 – Challenging the Dominant: Political Party Opposition Strategies ................................. 42 3.1 Post-referendum: Re-alignment and Coalition Attempts (2006-2012) .................................... 42 3.2 From Great Ambitions to Atomisation: The Season of Lost Chances (2012-2015) ................ 52 3.3 Fragmented Cohabitation: Gradual Progress or Hopeless Failure? (2015-2019) .................... 64 3.4 Opposition Strategies and their Impact on Dominance ........................................................... 78 3.4.1 Outlining Montenegrin Political Party Opposition Strategies .......................................... 78 3.4.2 Impact on Electoral, Parliamentary, and Executive Arenas of Party Competition ........... 88 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 94 Bibliography....................................................................................................................................... 98 Media Sources .............................................................................................................................. 105 Appendix A – Data Collection Questions ........................................................................................ 122 2 Abbreviations BS – Bosniak Party DEMOS – Democratic Alliance Democrats – Democratic Montenegro DF – Democratic Front DNP – Democratic People’s Party DPS – Democratic Party of Socialists EU – European Union LSCG – Liberal Alliance of Montenegro MANS – Network for the Affirmation of Non-governmental Sector NOVA –New Serb Democracy NS – People’s Party NSS – People’s Socialist Party OSCE/ODIHR - Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe - Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights PCG – Positive Montenegro PzP – Movement for Changes RP – Worker’s Party SD – Socialdemocrats SDP – Socialdemocratic Party SFRJ – Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia SKCG – League of Communists of Montenegro SL – Serb List SNP – Socialist People’s Party SNS – Serb People’s Party UCG – United Montenegro URA – Citizens’ Movement of United Reform Action 3 Introduction Although leading the Western Balkans’ ‘regatta’ race for EU accession, Montenegro remains trapped in “stabilitocracy”.1 Among the salient traits of this political system, the most striking one is the extraordinary longevity in office of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), led by the charismatic and controversial Milo Djukanović. This “quintessential political survivor” steered the DPS through several critical turns and pragmatically transformed the party’s policy orientations, to ensure its continued stay in power since 1991.2 Through the “exploitative reconstruction of the state”,3 this fully-fledged dominance forestalled alternation in power and represents a serious constraint for a genuine democratic transformation in the small Adriatic republic.4 Spring 2018 presidential and local elections marked another electoral victory for the incumbent: Djukanović himself was elected President of Montenegro at the first round with an absolute majority of preferences, while his party colleagues won May 2018 local elections in 10 out of 11 municipalities, including the absolute majority in the city council of Podgorica.5 Although from the end of Montenegro’s ‘political monolith’ in 1997 old and new opposition parties were consistently unsuccessful against the incumbent coalition, the worst defeat since 2002 arrived after some years in which DPS rule seemed losing its previous stability. The consequences of the global economic crisis, scandals, EU conditionality, and cracks within the long-standing incumbent coalition seemed to offer chances for increased opposition efficacy. Recent electoral results tell as much about opposition parties failures as about DPS successes, calling for a serious reflection on opposition strategies, if these actors maintain a genuine intention to threaten the incumbent.6 Such a verdict, however, is not a novelty at all. After 2006 independence 1 Pavlović, Srdja. 2016. Montenegro’s ‘Stabilitocracy’: The West’s Support of Đukanović is Damaging the Prospects of Democratic change. EUROPP – European Politics and Policy, 23 December 2016. Available at: http://bit.ly/2ihqgrs (accessed: 17 April 2019). 2 Morrison, Kenneth. 2009. The Political Life of Milo Djukanović. Südosteuropa. Journal of Politics and Society 2009(1), 25. 3 Vuković, Ivan. 2010. The Post-communist Political Transition of Montenegro: Democratization Prior to Europeanization. Contemporary European Studies 2(1), 62. 4 See Bieber, Florian. 2010. The Party System of Montenegro, in Party Politics in the Western Balkans, edited by Stojarová, Vera. Abingdon/New York: Routledge, 119–130; Džankić, Jelena and Soren Keil. 2017. State-sponsored Populism and the Rise of Populist Governance: The Case of Montenegro. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies 19(4), 403-418; Kajošević, Samir. Biber: Crna Gora sa Đukanovićem teško može u EU. Vijesti, 2 May 2018. Available at: http://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/biber-crna-gora-sa-dukanovicem-tesko-moze-u-eu-986787 (accessed 17 April 2019). 5 Tomović, Dušica. Montenegro Opposition Licks Wounds After Poll Disaster. Balkan Insight, 30 May 2018. Available at: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/montenegro-opposition-licks-wounds-after-poll-disaster-05-30-2018 (accessed 17 April 2019) 6 Murić, Darvin. Opozicija u ambisu jer greške DPS-a pretvaraju u svoju štetu. Vijesti, 3 June 2018. Available at: http://www.vijesti.me/vijesti/opozicija-u-ambisu-jer-greske-dps-a-pretvaraju-u-svoju-stetu-991223 (accessed 17 April 2019); Kajošević, Samir. Bez saradnje opozicije nema dizanja iz nokauta. Vijesti, 12 June 2018. Available
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