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5.2 Model Establishment of Pedestrian Volume and Flow Distribution Copyright Undertaking This thesis is protected by copyright, with all rights reserved. By reading and using the thesis, the reader understands and agrees to the following terms: 1. The reader will abide by the rules and legal ordinances governing copyright regarding the use of the thesis. 2. The reader will use the thesis for the purpose of research or private study only and not for distribution or further reproduction or any other purpose. 3. The reader agrees to indemnify and hold the University harmless from and against any loss, damage, cost, liability or expenses arising from copyright infringement or unauthorized usage. IMPORTANT If you have reasons to believe that any materials in this thesis are deemed not suitable to be distributed in this form, or a copyright owner having difficulty with the material being included in our database, please contact [email protected] providing details. The Library will look into your claim and consider taking remedial action upon receipt of the written requests. Pao Yue-kong Library, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong http://www.lib.polyu.edu.hk SPATIAL ORGANIZATION AND WALKING SERVICE EFFICIENCY SURROUNDING SHENZHEN TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT (TOD) STATIONS XIN TONG PhD The Hong Kong Polytechnic University This programme is jointly offered by The Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Harbin Institute of Technology 2019 The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Department of Building and Real Estate Harbin Institute of Technology Department of Urban Planning and Management 1. Spatial Organization and Walking Service Efficiency surrounding Shenzhen Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Stations XIN TONG A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy February 2019 CERTIFICATE OF ORGINALITY I hereby declare that this thesis is my own work and that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, it reproduces no material previously published or written, nor material that has been accepted for the award of any other degree or diploma, except where due acknowledgement has been made in the text. (Signed)- - TONG Xin (Name of student) 2. Abstract In the past decades, China’s rapid urbanization has triggered the issue of population concentrates and urban sprawl. The problems brought by the motorized vehicles and increasing demand of bicycle and pedestrian travel have drawn extensive attentions in urbans studies. Walking, as one of the most traditional travel behaviour and lifestyle, is challenged by the modern urban development. Especially in the railway station surrounding areas, pedestrians walking is under threat by heavy transit passengers, dense urban space and the massive amount of passing-by vehicles. How to integrate transit-oriented development (TOD) areas and establish an efficient walking system is a major issue and grand challenge. Therefore, under the background of urban sprawl and the revival movement of walkable city, the research study presented in this dissertation aims to build and apply a quantitative method to discuss the integration correlation between pedestrian flow and urban space. The central goal of this study is to develop an approach to measure walking service efficiency by considering pedestrian flow and spatial coordination, and to analyse their mutual relationship. This can then be put forward to support the planning strategy to encourage the effective walking behaviours around TOD stations. Thus, the objectives of this study are: 1) to identify the issues and evaluation content of walking space; 2) to evaluate the walking service efficiency of TOD areas; 3); to build a quantitative method to analyse the mutual relationship of spatial organization and walking service efficiency; and 4) to better understand the influence mechanism of spatial organization and walking service efficiency in TOD areas. This study applied the pedestrian simulation method based on the Social Force (SF) model to investigate the pedestrian flow movement and its distribution, as well as to conceive planning scenarios and build the statistical regression model to explain the relationship between urban space and walking service efficiency. The big data of ridership records of Shenzhen metro stations, Point-of-interest (POI) surrounding Shenzhen railway stations and the OpenStreeMap (OSM) of street networks were i used to investigate walking and spatial characteristics. An agent-based software, Anylogic, was used to simulate the pedestrian movement and predict the walking distribution of different scenarios. Overall, 253 streets surrounding nine TOD stations were selected as study areas to simulate the walking behaviour and evaluate the relationship. To evaluate the spatial organization of TOD areas, the spatial factors including land-use structure, streets pattern and traffic management were assessed with ArcGIS based on POI, OSM data of 2016 and a field survey conducted in 2017. The spatial organization indicators (land use function, density and diversity, street depth, connect, control, integration, betweenness, road hierarchy, pavement hierarchy, walking distance, spatial organization mode) have been calculated as independent variables. To estimate the walking service efficiency, this study considered the service level and coordination with space as the primary dimension. Four dependent variables (walking speed, pedestrian volume, congestion imbalance and spatial sensitivity) were extracted. To investigate the relationship between pedestrian traffic and urban space, the quantitative measurements of simulation and Partial Least Square (PLS) regression were established. A simulation model was proposed and verified. With scenario simulation and statistical analysis, it compared the change characteristics of walking efficiency under different spatial organization scene. The change rules and key spatial influencing factors were identified from the PLS regression models. This study expanded the walkability concept by efficiency and explored the quantitative way of deciphering walking service efficiency with respect to spatial organization by using simulation and big data methods. The combination of research methods for transportation and computer simulation has solved the problems from huge pedestrian volume and hard-obtaining data of walking movement experienced in previous studies to some extent. It contributed an integrative framework to better understand the mechanism of walking behaviour in TOD areas by analysing the relationship between pedestrian flow and spatial organization. The findings of this study can provide practical reference for planners, designer and policy makers ii regarding how to improve the walking efficiency of TOD area and promote the urban vibrancy. iii Publications arising from the thesis Tong Xin, Dai Donghui, Wang Z. (2018). A Study on Scenario Planning of Walking Space Based on Pedestrian Simulation. Planners 规划师, 12(34): No.276, 109-115. Tong, Xin, Wang Yaowu, Chan, E. H. W., & Zhou, Q. (2018). Correlation between Transit-Oriented Development (TOD), Land Use Catchment Areas, and Local Environmental Transformation. Sustainability, 10(12), 4622. An Dadi, Tong Xin, Liu Kun, Chan, E. H. W. (2019). Understanding The Impact of Built Environment on Metro Ridership Using Open Source in Shanghai. Cities, 93, 177-187. Wang Yaowu, Zhou Q., Tong Xin (2018). Evaluation of Shenzhen Railway Station Areas Based on the Node-Place Model. World Transport Convention 2018 Beijing. Tong Xin, Chan Edwin H. W, Wang Yaowu (2016).Relationship between Walkability and Health in Urban Space——A Comparative Study among Asian Cities. Walk21 2016 Hong Kong Conference. Tong Xin, Wang Yaowu, Zhou Q. (2017). Relationship of Characteristic Factors in Transit-oriented Development Communities based on Point of Interests and Metro Ridership Data – a Case Study of Shenzhen. ISOCARP Congress, Portland, ISBN 978-94-90354-50-3. Tong Xin., Wang, Y., Chan, E. H. W.(2016). International research trends and methods for walkability and their enlightenment in China. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 36, 130-137. Zhengzheng Tang, Zhenkun Han, Tong Xin (2016). The Innovative Talents Training Mode of the Generic Architecture Discipline--Take the Introduction to Soundscape Design as Example. Advances in Computer Science Research, 1, 622-625. iv 3. Acknowledgements I would like to express my gratitude to all those who have helped me during the study. First and foremost, I gratefully acknowledge the help of my supervisor Professor Edwin Chan, who has always offered me valuable suggestion and encouragement. He has walked me through all stages of writing of the thesis. His support has sustained me through frustration and depression. In addition, I would like to thank Professor Yaowu Wang, the joint supervisor in Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen. He has helped me to develop the fundamental and essential academic competence and provided a comfortable learning atmosphere. Without their consistent and illuminating instruction, the thesis would be impossible. I am also greatly indebted to all my teachers, Professor Donghui Dai, Dr. Qingdeng Zhou, Professor Kun Liu and Dr. Zuopeng Xiao, who listened to me and provided me with inspiring advice. My sincere appreciation also goes to all my colleagues in the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen. Thanks for encouraging, accompanying and supporting me during my PhD study, Mr. Linfeng Xu, Ms. Yang Li, Ms. Yuan Gao, Dr. Jiang Xue, Dr. Sun Yao, Dr. Anqi Wang,
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