Introduction 1. Dankwart Rustow, “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model,” Comparative Politics 2, No

Notes

Introduction 1. Dankwart Rustow, “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model,” Comparative Politics 2, no. 3 (April 1970): 358. 2. For an elaboration on this, see Roland Paris, At War’s End: Building Peace after Civil Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). See also Simon Chesterman, You the People: The United Nations, Transitional Administration, and Statebuilding (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005). 3. Robert Grenier, “If You Love Lebanon, Set It Free,” New York Times, December 17, 2006. 4. For a discussion, see Carrie Manning, “Political Elites and Democratic State-building Efforts in Bosnia and Iraq,” Democratization 13, no. 5 (December 2006): 724–38. 5. Thomas Carothers, “The End of the Transition Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 1 (2002): 8. 6. I define electoralism as a demonstrated commitment to holding regular, periodic elections. 7. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, “Prone to Violence: The Paradox of the Democratic Peace,” National Interest (Winter 2005/06): 39–45. For the full argument, see Mansfield and Snyder, Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005). 8. Paris, At War’s End. 9. See, for example, Fareed Zakaria, “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy,” Foreign Affairs 76 (November–December 1997): 22–43; Andreas Schedler, “Elections Without Democracy: The Menu of Manipulation,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (2002): 36–50; Nicolas van de Walle, “Africa’s Range of Regimes,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (April 2002): 66–80; Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, “The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (April 2002), 51–65. 158 Notes

Larry Diamond, “Thinking About Hybrid Regimes,” Journal of Democ- racy 13, no. 2 (April 2002): 21–35; Terry Lynn Karl, “The Hybrid Regimes of Central America,” Journal of Democracy 6 (July 1995): 72–86. 10. Richard Joseph, “Africa: States in Crisis,” Journal of Democracy 14, no. 3 (July 2003): 160. 11. Staffan Lindberg, “The Democratic Qualities of Competitive Elections: Participation, Competition and Legitimacy in Africa,” Journal of Com- monwealth and Comparative Politics 42, no. 1 (March 2004): 61–105. 12. Terrence Lyons, “The Role of Post-Settlement Elections,” in Ending Civil Wars, ed. Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild, and Elizabeth M. Cousens (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002), 215–35. 13. George Tsebelis, Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990). 14. Richard Rose and Thomas T. Mackie, “Do Parties Persist or Fail? The Big Trade-Off Facing Organizations,” in When Parties Fail: Emerging Alternative Organizations, ed. Kay Lawson and Peter H. Merkl (Prince- ton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988), 534. 15. Andreas Schedler, “The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections,” International Political Science Review 23, no. 1 (2002): 103–22. 16. A recent volume on electoral authoritarianism addresses the relation- ships between parties and repeated elections quite explicitly. See Andreas Schedler, ed., Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Compe- tition (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006). See especially pieces by Joy Langston, “Elite Ruptures: When do Ruling Parties Split?”; Nicolas van de Walle, “Tipping Games: When do Opposition Parties Coalesce?”; William Case, “Manipulative Skills: How do Rulers Control the Elec- toral Arena?”; Mark R. Thompson and Philipp Kuntz, “After Defeat: When do Rulers Steal Elections?”; and Staffan I. Lindberg, “Tragic Protest: Why do Opposition Parties Boycott Elections?” On Latin America, see, for example, Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully, Party Systems in Latin America (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995); Scott Mainwaring, Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999). On Africa, see Matthijs Bogaards, “Electoral Choices for Divided Societies: Multi-Ethnic Parties and Constituency Polling in Africa,” Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Studies 41, no. 3 (2004): 59–80; van de Walle, “Presidentialism and Clientelism in Africa’s Emerging Party Sys- tems,” Journal of Modern African Studies 41, no. 2 (2003): 297–321; Lindberg, “Institutionalization of Party Systems? Stability and Fluidity Notes 159

Among Legislative Parties in Africa’s Democracies,” paper presented at APSA annual meeting, November 17–20, 2005; Michelle Kuenzi and Gina Lambright, “Party Systems and Democratic Consolidation in Africa’s Electoral Regimes,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 423–44; Sha- heen Mozaffar and James R. Scarritt, “The Puzzle of African Party Systems,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 399–421; Carrie Manning, “African Party Systems after the Third Wave,” Party Politics 11, no. 6 (2005): 707–27. On Eastern Europe, see, for example, Herbert Kitschelt et al., Post-Communist Party Systems (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Richard Rose and Neil Munro, Elections and Parties in New European Democracies (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2003); and Geof- frey Pridham, Stabilising Fragile Democracies: Comparing New Party Sys- tems in Southern and Eastern Europe (London: Routledge, 1996). 17. Larry Diamond, “Introduction: In Search of Consolidation,” in Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien eds., Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges (Balti- more: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997), xxiii. 18. On socioeconomic and demographic change, see R. J. Dalton and M. Kuechler, eds., Challenging the Political Order: New Social and Political Movements in Western Democracies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990); R. J. Dalton and M. P. Wattenberg, eds., Parties without Parti- sans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Oxford: Oxford University Press); Ronald Inglehart, Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Societies (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); L. Karvonen and S. Kuhnle, eds., Party Systems and Voter Alignment Revis- ited (London: Routledge, 2001). On institutional frameworks and party change, see John M. Carey, “Institutional Design and Party Systems,” in Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien, eds., Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997), 67–92, and Larry Diamond and Richard Gunther, eds., Political Parties and Democracy (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001). 19. On Eastern Europe see, for example, Herbert Kitschelt et al., Post-Com- munist Party Systems (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Richard Rose and Neil Munro, Elections and Parties in New European Democracies (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2003); Geoffrey Pridham, Stabilising Fragile Democracies: Comparing New Party Systems in Southern and Eastern Europe (London: Routledge, 1996); Richard Hofferbert, Parties and Democracy: Party Structure and Party Performance in Old and New Democracies (Oxford: Blackwell, 1989); Franz Oswald, The Party 160 Notes

That Came in out of the Cold War: The Party of Democratic Socialism in United Germany (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002); and Ingrid van Biezen and Peter Mair, “Political Parties,” in Paul M. Heywood, Erik Jones, Martin Rhodes, and Ulrich Sedelmaier, eds., Developments in European Politics (New York: Palgrave, 2006), 97–116. On Latin America, see, for example, Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully, Party Systems in Latin America (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995); Scott Main- waring, Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999); Mitchell A. Seligson and John A. Booth, Elections and Democracy in Central America, Revis- ited (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1995); and Todd Eisenstadt, Courting Democracy in Mexico: Party Strategies and Electoral Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). On Africa, see Matthijs Bogaards, “Electoral Choices for Divided Societies: Multi- Ethnic Parties and Constituency Polling in Africa,” Journal of Common- wealth and Comparative Studies 41, no. 3 (2004): 59–80; van de Walle, “Presidentialism and Clientelism in Africa’s Emerging Party Systems,” Journal of Modern African Studies 41, no. 2 (2003): 297–321; Lindberg, “Institutionalization of Party Systems? Stability and Fluidity Among Legislative Parties in Africa’s Democracies,” paper presented at APSA annual meeting, November 17–20, 2005; Michelle Kuenzi and Gina Lambright, “Party Systems and Democratic Consolidation in Africa’s Electoral Regimes,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 423–44; Shaheen Mozaffar and James R. Scarritt, “The Puzzle of African Party Systems,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 399–421; and Carrie Manning, “African Party Systems after the Third Wave,” Party Politics 11, no. 6 (2005): 707–27. 20. Serenella Sferza, “Party Organization and Party Performance: The Case of the French Socialist Party,” in Richard Gunther, José Ramón Mon- tero, and Juan J. Linz, eds., Political Parties: Old Concepts and New Chal- lenges (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), 168. 21. Robert Harmel and Kenneth Janda, “An Integrated Theory of Party Goals and Party Change,” Journal of Theoretical Politics 6, no. 3 (1994): 259–87. 22. Kaare Strøm and Wolfgang C. Müller, “Political Parties and Hard Choices,” in Policy, Office, or Votes? How Political Parties in Western Europe Make Hard Decisions, ed. Müller and Strøm (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), 1–35; Richard Rose and Thomas T. Mackie, “Do Parties Persist or Fail? The Big Trade-Off Facing Organizations,” in When Parties Fail: Emerging Alternative Organizations, ed. Kay Lawson and Peter Merkl (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988). Notes 161

23. See, for example, M. Laver and K. Shepsle, Making and Breaking Gov- ernments (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Peter Mair, “Party Organizations: From Civil Society to State,” in How Parties Orga- nize: Change and Adaptation in Party Organizations in Western Democracies, ed. Richard S. Katz and Peter Mair (London: Sage, 1994), 1–22; Müller and Strøm, Policy, Office or Votes; Kay Lawson, ed., How Political Parties Work: Perspectives from Within (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1994). 24. Angelo Panebianco, Political Parties: Organization and Power (Cam- bridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988); Katz and Mair, “Party Orga- nizations”; Serenella Sferza, “Party Organization and Party Performance: The Case of the French Socialist Party,” in Political Parties: Old Concepts and New Challenges, ed. Richard Gunther, José Ramón Montero, and Juan J. Linz (Oxford: Oxford University Press), 166–90; Hans-Jurgen Puhle, “Still the Age of Catch-allism?” in Political Parties, 58–83; Rose and Mackie, “Do Parties Persist or Fail?”; Tsebelis, Nested Games; Todd Eisenstadt, Courting Democracy in Mexico: Party Strategies and Electoral Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). 25. A notable exception is Cynthia McClintock, Revolutionary Movements in Latin America: El Salvador’s FMLN and Peru’s Shining Path (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1998). There are a handful of case studies, though no comparative studies, that explicitly address party transformation in post-conflict cases. Some are memoirs of wartime commanders or prominent politicians. Most of these, however, are not available in English. See for example Rubén Zamora, La Izquierda Par- tidaria Salvadoreña: Entre la Identidad y el Poder (San Salvador: FLACSO, 2003); Ondoga ori Amaza, Museveni’s Long March: From Guerrilla to Statesman (Kampala: Fountain Publishers, 1998). Other sin- gle-country or comparative studies have sections that address party transformation. Comparative studies include Elisabeth Jean Wood, Forging Democracy From Below: Insurgent Transitions in South Africa and El Salvador (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000); Michael W. Doyle, Ian Johnstone, and Robert C. Orr, Keeping the Peace: Multi- dimensional UN Operations in Cambodia and El Salvador (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Roland Paris, At War’s End: Build- ing Peace after Civil Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004); and Terrence Lyons, Demilitarizing Politics: Elections on the Uncertain Road to Peace (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006). Examples of case studies include David Chandler, Bosnia: Faking Democracy After Dayton (London: Pluto, 1999); Tommy Sue Montgomery, Revolution in El Salvador (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1995); Carrie Manning, The Politics of Peace in Mozambique (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002). There are 162 Notes

a number of post-conflict country case studies, mostly policy-oriented that provide comprehensive overviews of post-conflict challenges in selected countries, as well as volumes addressing the question of post- conflict reconstruction more broadly and in comparative perspective. None of these works touches on party development in more than a per- functory fashion. For examples of the former, see the World Bank’s Eval- uation Country Case Study Series. 26. Charles King, “The Benefits of Ethnic War: Understanding Eurasia’s Unrecognized States,” World Politics 53 (July 2001): 524–52; David Keen, A Political Economy of Famine Relief in Southwestern Sudan, 1983–89 (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press); Mats Berdal and David Malone, Greed or Grievance Economic Agendas in Civil Wars (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2000); William Reno, Warlord Politics and African States (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1998). 27. On two-level games, Robert Putnam’s classic formulation is useful here. Robert Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two- Level Games,” International Organization 42, no. 3 (Summer 1988): 427–60. See also George Tsebelis, Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990). 28. Portions of the empirical chapters have appeared in slightly different form in the author’s previous publications, including “From Rebel Group to Political Party: The Case of Mozambique,” in From Soldiers to Politicians: Transforming Rebel Movements After Civil War (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, forthcoming); “Party-Building on the Heels of Civil War: El Salvador, Bosnia, and Mozambique,” Democratization 13, no. 5 (2007) 253–72; “Armed Opposition Groups into Political Parties: Com- paring Bosnia, Kosovo, and Mozambique,” Studies in Comparative Inter- national Development 39, no. 1 (Spring 2004): 54–77; “Elections and Political Change in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Democratization 11, no. 2 (April 2004): 60–87; “Elite Habituation to Democracy in Mozambique: The View from Parliament, 1994–2000,” Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 40, no. 1 (March 2002): 61–80.

Chapter 1 1. Roland Paris, At War’s End: Building Peace After Civil Conflict (Cam- bridge: Cambridge University Press), 19. 2. See Paris, At War’s End for a discussion of these, as well as Chris Alden, Mozambique and the Construction of the New African State: From Negoti- ations to Nation Building (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001). Notes 163

3. Boutros Boutros-Ghali, An Agenda for Peace, 1995, 2nd ed. (New York: United Nations, 1995), 62. 4. Cited in Paris, 6. 5. U.S. Committee for Security and Cooperation in Europe, “Elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sept. 12–13, 1998,” http://www.house.gov/csce/ bosniaelec.htm. 6. For a discussion, see Carrie Manning, “Political Elites and Democratic State-building Efforts in Bosnia and Iraq,” Democratization 13, no. 5 (December 2006): 724–38. 7. For an overview, see the introduction to that issue, Julia Buxton, “Secur- ing Democracy in Complex Environments,” Democratization 13, no. 5 (December 2006) 709–23. 8. Karin von Hippel, Democracy by Force: U.S. Military Intervention in the Post-Cold War World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000). 9. Elizabeth M. Cousens, “Introduction,” in Peacebuilding as Politics: Cul- tivating Peace in Fragile Societies, ed. Elizabeth M. Cousens and Chetan Kumar (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2001), 12. Hartzell and Walter discuss the importance of providing security (physical, economic, and political) for all participants to the peace process. See Caroline Hartzell, “Explaining the Stability of Negotiated Settlements to Intrastate Wars,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43, no. 1 (February 1999): 3–22; and Bar- bara F. Walter, “The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement,” Interna- tional Organization 51, no. 3 (Summer 1997): 335–64. 10. Michael Brown, “Introduction,” in The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, ed. Michael Brown (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996), 1–32. 11. Buxton, 712. 12. Thomas Carothers, “The End of the Transition Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 1 (2002): 16. 13. Ibid., 16. 14. Ibid., 7. 15. See Samuel P. Huntington, “Will More Countries Become Democra- tic?” Political Science Quarterly 99, no. 2 (Summer 1984): 193–218. 16. See for example Herbert Kitschelt, Zdenka Mansfeldova, Radoslaw Markowski, and Gabor Toka, Post-Communist Party Systems: Competi- tion, Representation, and Inter-Party Cooperation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999). See also Richard Hofferbert, ed., Parties and Democracy (Oxford:Blackwell Publishers, 1998). 17. Michael Bratton and Nicolas van de Walle, Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective (Cambridge: Cam- bridge University Press, 1997). 164 Notes

18. The literature on democratization and institutional design is very large. See for example Arend Lijphart, Democracy in Plural Societies: A Com- parative Exploration (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977); Timothy Sisk and Andrew Reynolds, eds., Elections and Conflict Resolution in Africa (Washington, DC: U.S. Institute of Peace, 1998); Giovanni Sar- tori, Comparative Constitutional Engineering: An Inquiry into Structures, Incentives, and Outcomes (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994); Timothy Sisk, Democratization in South Africa: The Elusive Social Con- tract (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995); Rein Taagepera and Matthew S. Shugart, Seats and Votes: The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989); Ben- jamin Reilly, Democracy in Divided Societies: Electoral Engineering for Conflict Management (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001); Philip G. Roeder and Donald Rothchild, eds., Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2005); Kurt von Mettenheim, ed., Presidential Institutions and Democra- tic Institutions: Comparing Regional and National Contexts (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997); Scott Mainwaring, Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization: The Case of Brazil (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999); Scott Main- waring and Timothy R. Scully, eds., Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995). 19. John M. Carey, “Institutional Design and Party Systems,” in Consolidat- ing the Third Wave Democracies, ed. Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univer- sity Press, 1997), 88. 20. Benjamin Reilly, “Political Engineering and Party Politics in Conflict- Prone Societies,” Democratization 13, no. 5 (December 2006): 812. 21. Ibid., 811. 22. Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Per- formance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), 6. 23. Todd A. Eisenstadt, Courting Democracy in Mexico: Party Strategies and Electoral Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004), 12. 24. Ibid., 16. 25. Paris, 188. 26. Scott Mainwaring, “Party Systems in the Third Wave,” Journal of Democracy vol. 9, no. 3 (January 1999): 68. 27. Ibid. 28. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance; Philip Selznick, Leadership in Administration: A Sociological Interpretation Notes 165

(Berkeley: University of California Press, 1957); Goran Hyden, “Gover- nance and the Study of Politics,” Governance and Politics in Africa, ed. Goran Hyden and Michael Bratton (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1992), 1–26. 29. For a formal treatment, see George Tsebelis, Nested Games. See also Robert Axelrod’s work on uncoordinated repetitive games. Robert Axel- rod, The Evolution of Cooperation (New York: Basic Books, 1984). 30. Dankwart Rustow introduced these points years ago in his seminal piece, “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model,” Compar- ative Politics 2, no. 3 (1970): 337–63. 31. Giovanni Sartori, Parties and Party Systems (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1976), 72. 32. See for example Herbert Kitschelt, Zdenka Mansfeldova, Radoslaw Markowski, and Gabor Toka, Post-Communist Party Systems: Competi- tion, Representation, and Inter-Party Cooperation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999). See also the Hofferbert collection of essays on post-communist party politics. Richard Hofferbert, ed., Parties and Democracy (Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 1998). 33. Buxton, 719. For discussion of party assistance in democracy promotion efforts, see Krishna Kumar, “Reflections on International Political Party Assistance,” Democratization 12, no. 4 (2005), 505–27; Peter Burnell, Building Better Democracies. Why Political Parties Matter (London: West- minster Foundation for Democracy, 2004); Thomas Carothers, “Exam- ining International Political Party Aid,” in Globalising Democratisation, ed. Peter Burnell (Routledge, 2006), 69–87; C. Gershman, “Democracy Promotion: The Relationship of Political Parties and Civil Society,” Democratization 11, no. 3 (2004): 27–35; Peter Burnell, ed., Globalising Democracy: Party Politics in Emerging Democracies (London: Routledge, 2006). 34. Larry Diamond, “Introduction: In Search of Consolidation,” in Consol- idating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges, ed. Larry Dia- mond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997), xxiii. 35. Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1968), 408–10. 36. Diamond, “Introduction,” xxiii. 37. Mainwaring, “Party Systems in the Third Wave,” 67–81. 38. Ingrid van Biezen and Peter Mair, “Political Parties,” in Developments in European Politics, ed. Paul M. Heywood, Erik Jones, Martin Rhodes, and Ulrich Sedelmeier (New York: Palgrave, 2006), 108. 39. van Biezen and Mair, 108–9. 166 Notes

40. Ibid., 113. 41. Vicky Randall and Lars Svasand, “Political Parties and Democratic Con- solidation in Africa,” Democratization 9, no. 3 (Autumn 2002), 47. 42. Gábor Tóka, “Political Parties and Democratic Consolidation in East Central Europe,” Studies in Public Policy, no. 270 (Glasgow: Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, 1997). 43. Joseph Schumpeter, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (New York: Harper, 1942), 269. 44. Ibid., 283. 45. Kaare Strøm and Wolfgang C. Müller, “Political Parties and Hard Choices,” in Policy, Office, or Votes? How Political Parties in Western Europe Make Hard Decisions, ed. Müller and Strøm (Cambridge: Cam- bridge University Press, 1999), 1–35. 46. Sartori, Parties and Party Systems. For a classic example of an organizational approach to the study of political parties, see Angelo Panebianco, Political Parties: Organization and Power (Cambridge: Cambridge Uni- versity Press, 1988). 47. Richard S. Katz and Peter Mair, “The Ascendancy of the Party in Public Office: Party Organizational Change in Twentieth-century Democra- cies,” in Political Parties: Old Concepts and New Challenges, ed. Richard Gunther, Jose Ramon Montero, and Juan Linz (Oxford: Oxford Univer- sity Press, 2002). 48. David M. Olson, “Party Formation and Party System Consolidation in the New Democracies,” in Parties and Democracy, ed. Richard Hoffer- bert (Oxford: Blackwell, 1998), 11. 49. Andreas Schedler, “The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections,” Journal of the International Political Science Association 23, no. 1 (2002): 109. 50. Ibid. 51. Ibid., 118. 52. Lucy Creevey, Paul Ngomo, and Richard Vengroff, “Party Politics and Different Paths to Democratic Transitions: A Comparison of Benin and Senegal,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 472–73. 53. Creevey et al., 480. See also Shaheen Mozaffar and Richard Vengroff, “A ‘Whole Systems’ Approach to the Choice of Electoral Rules in Emerging Democracies: Senegal in Comparative Perspective,” Electoral Studies 21 (2002): 59–74. 54. Eisenstadt, 6. 55. Olson, 11. 56. Schumpeter, 283. 57. Sartori, Parties and Party Systems, 82. Notes 167

58. See Roberto Michels, Political Parties: A Sociological Study of the Oli- garchical Tendencies of Modern Democracy (New York: The Free Press, 1962). See also Gosta Esping-Andersen’s study of socialist parties in Western Europe: Gosta Esping-Andersen, Politics Against Markets: The Social Democratic Road to Power (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1985). For a sampling of the voluminous literature on party system development, see Lewis, Party Development and Democratic Change in Post-Communist Europe; Larry Diamond and Richard Gunther, Polit- ical Parties and Democracy (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2002); Scott Mainwaring, Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1998); Geoffrey Pridham, Stabilising Fragile Democracies: Comparing New Party Systems in Southern and Eastern Europe (London: Routledge, 1996). 59. Sferza, 167. 60. Ibid., 168. 61. See Panebianco, Political Parties; Kay Lawson and Peter Merkl, When Parties Fail (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988); Gunther, Moreno, and Linz, Political Parties. 62. Panebianco, 210. 63. Ibid., 212. 64. Robert Harmel and Kenneth Janda, “An Integrated Theory of Party Goals and Party Change,” Journal of Theoretical Politics 6, no. 3 (1994): 265. 65. Ibid. 66. Frank Wilson, “The Sources of Party Change: The Social Democratic Parties of Britain, France, Germany, and Spain,” in How Political Parties Work: Perspectives from Within, ed. Kay Lawson (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1994), 270. 67. Harmel and Janda, “An Integrated Theory of Party Goals and Party Change,” 267. 68. Ibid., 278. 69. Katz and Mair posit a gradual process of change in parties they studied from 1960 to 1990. Panebianco, by contrast, argued that one powerful shock could be enough to cause significant party change if the right con- ditions existed within a party. See Richard S. Katz and Peter Mair, eds., Party Organizations: A Data Handbook on Party Organizations in Western Democracies, 1960-1990 (London: Sage, 1992) and Angelo Panebianco, Political Parties: Organization and Power (Cambridge: Cambridge Uni- versity Press, 1988). 70. Robert Harmel and Kenneth Janda, Parties and Their Environments: Limits to Reform? (New York: Longman, 1982), 48. 168 Notes

71. Barbara Levitt and James March, “Organizational Learning,” in Organi- zational Learning, ed. Michael D. Cohen and Lee S. Sproul (London: Sage, 1996), 531. 72. Panebianco, 69. 73. Joy Langston, “Elite Ruptures: When do Ruling Parties Split?” in Elec- toral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition, ed. Andreas Schedler (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006), 61. 74. Ibid., 71. 75. Ibid. 76. Panebianco, 208. 77. Sferza, 171. 78. Herbert Simon, “Bounded Rationality and Organizational Learning,” in Organizational Learning, ed. Michael D. Cohen and Lee S. Sproul (Lon- don: Sage, 1996). 79. Panebianco, 210. 80. Ibid., 213. 81. Roberto Michels, Political Parties: A Sociological Study of the Oligarchical Tendencies of Modern Democracy (New York: Free Press, 1962). 82. Panebianco, 60. 83. Wilson, 275. 84. Tsebelis, 103. 85. Levitt and March, 517. 86. Reuven Y. Hazan and Gideon Rahat, “Candidate Selection: Methods and Consequences,” in Handbook of Party Politics, ed. Richard S. Katz and William Crotty (London: Sage, 2006), 110. 87. Ibid., 109. 88. Ibid., 116. 89. Wilson, 271.

Chapter 2 1. See Giovanni M. Carbone, “Continuidade na Renovação? Ten Years of Multiparty Politics in Mozambique: Roots, Evolution and Stabilization of the Frelimo-Renamo Party System,” Journal of Modern African Stud- ies 43, no. 3 (2005): 1–26; Carrie Manning, “Conflict Management and Elite Habituation to Post-War Democracy: The Case of Mozambique,” Comparative Politics 35, no. 1 (October 2002): 63–84. 2. Carrie Manning, “Elite Habituation to Democracy in Mozambique: The View from Parliament, 1994–2000,” Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 40, no. 1 (March 2002): 61–80. Notes 169

3. Histories of this period can be found in Margaret Hall and Tom Young, Confronting Leviathan: Mozambique Since Independence (Athens: Ohio University Press, 1997); Chan and Venâncio, War and Peace in Mozam- bique; José Luis Cabaço, “A Longa Estrada da Democracia Moçambi- cana” in Moçambique: Eleições, Democracia e Desenvolvimento, ed. Brazão Mazula (Maputo: Inter-áfrica Group, 1995): 79–114; Allen Isaacman and Barbara Isaacman, Mozambique: From Colonialism to Revolution, 1900–1982 (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1983); Hans Abrahamsson and Anders Nilsson, Mozambique: The Troubled Transition, from Socialist Construction to Free Market Capitalism (London: Zed Books, 1995). 4. For a fuller discussion, see Carrie Manning, The Politics of Peace in Mozambique: Post-Conflict Democratization, 1992–2002 (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002). 5. Hall and Young, 168–69. 6. For discussion of RENAMO tactics during the war, see William Finnegan, A Complicated War: The Harrowing of Mozambique (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993); Robert Gersony, “Summary of Mozambican Refugee Accounts of Principally Conflict-Related Experi- ence in Mozambique,” Report submitted to Ambassador Jonathan Moore, Director, Bureau for Refugee Programs, and Dr. Chester A. Crocker, Assistant Secretary of African Affairs (Washington, DC: April 1988); Alex Vines, RENAMO: Terrorism in Mozambique (London: James Cur- rey, 1991); Hall and Young, Confronting Leviathan; William Minter, Apartheid’s Contras: An Inquiry into the Roots of War in Angola and Mozam- bique (Johannesburg, South Africa: Witwatersrand University Press, 1994); and Mark F. Chingono, The State, Violence and Development: The Political Economy of War in Mozambique, 1975–1992 (London: Avebury, 1996). 7. One of these was Andre Thomashausen, a German citizen and law pro- fessor at UNISA (University of South Africa) in Pretoria. Personal communication to author from Thomashausen. 8. For example, Bruce Fein, an American, and Andre Thomashausen prepared a draft constitution, together with a seventy-two-page critique of the existing Mozambican constitution entitled, “The Dhlakama Papers.” A third document called for UN administration of government during a transitional period leading up to elections, similar to the UNTAC mis- sion in Cambodia. 9. See Manning, Politics of Peace in Mozambique. 10. For a full discussion of this issue, see Manning, Politics of Peace in Mozambique. 11. Ibid. 170 Notes

12. Agencia de Informacoes de Mocambique (hereafter AIM), “Law on General Elections Procedures,” December 28, 2006. 13. Giovanni M. Carbone, “Continuidade na Renovação? Ten Years of Mul- tiparty Politics in Mozambique: Roots, Evolution and Stabilization of the Frelimo-Renamo Party System,” Journal of Modern African Studies 43, no. 3 (2005): 1–26. 14. In late 2007, Renamo’s wartime information officer and prominent mem- ber of parliament defected to the Frelimo party, citing overwhelming financial problems as the reason. He had previously joined PDD. This was, to author’s knowledge, the first defection to Frelimo of a former national level official from Renamo. Personal communication with the author. 15. Tony Vaux, Amandio Mavela, João Pereira, Jennifer Suttle, Mozambique. Strategic Conflict Assessment DFID/UK (April 2006). Available at http:// www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/strategic-conflict-assessment.pdf. 16. Afonso Dhlakama, letter to Ambassador of Spain in Mozambique, Maputo, July 11, 1995, mimeo. 17. AIM, “Renamo Will Not Boycott Elections,” March 1, 2007. 18. Andreas Schedler, “The Nested Game of Democracy by Elections,” International Political Science Review 23, no. 1 (2002): 103–22. 19. This apt phrase was coined by Michel Cahen, “Dhlakama é Maningue Nice: An Atypical Former Guerrilla in the Mozambican Presidential Race,” L’Afrique Politique (March 1995), Paris: CEAN/Karthala: 119–61. 20. Carrie Manning, “Armed Opposition Groups into Political Parties: Comparing Bosnia, Kosovo, and Mozambique,” Studies in Comparative International Development 39, no. 1 (Spring 2004): 54–77. 21. Joe Hanlon, Mozambique Political Process Bulletin, no. 31 (December 29, 2004). 22. Eric Morier-Genoud, “Shaping Democracy: Frelimo, Liberalism, and Politics in Contemporary Mozambique,” unpublished seminar paper (Oxford, UK, 2007). 23. The main players are the Electoral Observatory (a consortium of NGOs involved in election monitoring), the Catholic church, the Islamic Council, the Christian Council of Mozambique, the Human Rights League, and the Women’s Forum. These organizations contributed members to the civil-society jury for selecting CNE members. AIM, “Civil Society Creates Jury to Establish CNE,” March 15, 2007. 24. AIM, “Law on General Election Procedures,” December 26, 2007. 25. Carrie Manning, “Elite Habituation to Democracy in Mozambique: The View from Parliament, 1994–2000,” Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 40, no. 1 (March 2002): 61–80. Notes 171

26. See Carrie Manning, “Conflict Management and Elite Habituation in Postwar Democracy: The Case of Mozambique,” Comparative Politics vol. 35, no. 1 (October 2002): 63–84. 27. For a full discussion of these elections, see Manning, The Politics of Peace in Mozambique. 28. Manning, “Conflict Management and Elite Habituation,” 75. 29. Ibid., 78–79. 30. Paul Fauvet, “Mozambique: In the Shadow of Carlos Cardoso,” Africa Contemporary Record, 2001-02 (Holmes and Meier, 2004), B784–806. 31. Adriano Nuvunga, Multiparty Democracy in Mozambique: Strengths, Weaknesses and Challenges, EISA Research Report no. 14 (Johannesburg, South Africa: Electoral Institute of Southern Africa, 2005), 13. 32. Joe Hanlon, Mozambique Political Process Bulletin, January 5, 2005. 33. Hanlon, Mozambique Political Process Bulletin, December 2004. 34. Ibid. 35. Inge Ruigrok, “Mozambique’s 2004 General Elections,” Situation Report, Institute for Security Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa, Feb- ruary 3, 2005 This is essentially a replay of the aftermath of the 1999 elections. See Manning, Politics of Peace in Mozambique. 36. George Tsebelis, Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990), 19. 37. AIM, “‘End of Democracy’ Claims Dhlakama,” December 20, 2006. 38. For a full discussion, see Carrie Manning, “Elite Habituation to Democ- racy in Mozambique: The View from Parliament, 1994–2000,” Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 40, no. 1 (March 2002): 61–80. 39. Fauvet, B796. 40. AIM, “Assembly imposes Code of Conduct,” February 27, 2007. 41. AIM, “Deadlock over Electoral Legislation,” April 27, 2006. 42. Hanlon, Mozambique Peace Process Bulletin, December 2004. 43. Ibid. 44. Edwin Hounnou, “Renamo Precisa Andar Mais Depressa,” Zambeze, May 17, 2007. 45. For a more detailed discussion, see Carrie Manning, “Constructing Opposition in Mozambique: Renamo as Political Party,” Journal of Southern African Studies 24, no. 1 (March 1998): 161–89. 46. Ibid., 187. 47. For a fuller discussion of Renamo’s party development in these respects, see Carrie Manning, “Elite Habituation to Democracy in Mozambique: The View from Parliament, 1994–2000,” Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics 40, no. 1 (March 2002): 61–80, and Giovanni M. 172 Notes

Carbone, “Continuidade na Renovação? Ten Years of Multiparty Politics in Mozambique: Roots, Evolution and Stabilization of the Frelimo-Ren- amo Party System,” Journal of Modern African Studies 43, no. 3 (2005): 1–26. 48. Carlos Cardoso, a prominent Mozambican journalist, was investigating a corruption scandal at a recently privatized bank when he was assassi- nated. His trial implicated businessmen close to the Frelimo party, as well as the son of President Chissano, in the assassination plot. 49. Carbone, 434–35. 50. See Manning, Politics of Peace in Mozambique, 201–3. 51. Joao Cravinho, “Mozambique: Recent History,” Africa South of the Sahara (Europa, 2004), 741–45. 52. Ibid. 53. Author interview, Maputo, May 20, 2007. 54. Hounnou. 55. Author interview, Maputo, May 21, 2007. 56. Lusa press agency, September 20, 2006. 57. Author interview, Maputo, May 21, 2007. 58. Author’s personal observation of the conference, Quelimane, November 2004. 59. Jeremias Langa, “Decisao Tomada, Decisao Inconstitucional,” O Pais, May 18, 2007. The ANFP itself subsequently became the subject of con- troversy, with many legal scholars calling it unconstitutional. ANFP extracted the function of regulating the civil service from an existing government ministry and created an entity that was neither fish nor fowl—falling outside of the rules governing state administration. The entity was placed under the control of the prime minister’s sister, Vitoria Diogo. 60. João Cravinho, “Mozambique: Recent History,” Africa South of the Sahara (Europa, 2006), 808. 61. Lusa press agency, September 20, 2006. 62. AIM, “More Defections from Renamo,” September 12, 2006. 63. Carbone, 432. 64. Carbone, 1–26. Notes 173

Chapter 3 1. This group, known as the Peace Implementation Council, consists of fifty-five countries, international organizations, and agencies that con- tribute financial assistance, troops, humanitarian aid, or other support for the peace process. 2. SFOR was preceded by IFOR, or Implementation Force, which had a maximum deployment of around 60,000 troops and lasted from Dec. 1995–Dec. 1996. In 2002, SFOR was streamlined and current troop strength is around 12,000 troops. 3. Carl Bildt, Peace Journey: The Struggle for Peace in Bosnia (London: George Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 1999), 254. 4. Ibid. 5. International Crisis Group, Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, ICG Report no. 16, 22 September 1996, 13. 6. Thirty-first Report of the High Representative for Implementation of the Peace Agreement on Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Secretary-Gen- eral of the United Nations, Wednesday, May 16, 2007, http://www .ohr.int/other-doc/hr-reports/default.asp?content_id=39813. 7. Changes in electoral regulations for the 2000 elections sought to change this. 8. From EASC reports for each election, http://www.oscebih.org. 9. International Crisis Group, Doing Democracy a Disservice: 1998 Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, September 9, 1998, 12. 10. On the importance of studying not only what are the most desirable institutions in a given context but what are the most likely institutions to be chosen by political actors, see Timothy Sisk’s discussion of the South African transition. Sisk, Democratization in South Africa: The Elu- sive Social Contract (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995). 11. International Crisis Group report, “Bosnia’s November Elections: Day- ton Stumbles,” December 8, 2000, 1. 12. OSCE, “Elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina, September 12–13, 1998,” 1. 13. In its 1997 Bonn meeting, the Peace Implementation Council gave the High Representative the authority to punish parties and individual party members for non-compliance with aspects of the Dayton peace process. See “Bonn Peace Implementation Conference 1997: Bosnia and Herze- govina 1998: Self Sustaining Structures,” December 10, 1997 in OHR, Bosnia and Herzegovina Essential Texts (3rd Revised and Updated Edi- tion), October 2000. 14. Details available at the OHR website, http://www.ohr.int/. 174 Notes

15. The use of such sanctions by OSCE over the years is well documented. See OSCE, Electoral Administration Supervisory Commission Decisions, available for each year from 1996–2001 at the OSCE archive, Sarajevo. 16. Author interviews, U.S. embassy personnel, Sarajevo, May 2001; See also Carrie Manning, “Elections and Political Change in Post-War Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Democratization 11, no. 2 (April 2004): 60–86. 17. This by no means meant that all “problem” personnel were put out. Change in this respect was slow and halting. See for example Interna- tional Crisis Group, War Criminals in Bosnia-Herzegovina’s Republika Srpska: Who are the People in Your Neighborhood? Europe Report No. 103, November 2, 2000. 18. These included two separate polls for the collective BiH presidency, the BiH House of Representatives, president/vice-president of the Repub- lika Srpska, the National Assembly of the Republika Srpska, the House of Representatives of the Federation of BiH, and ten cantonal races within the Federation. 19. For the 2004 elections, mayors were directly elected for the first time. 20. Dragan Stanimirovic, “Nationalist Parties Confirm their Dominance in Bosnia’s Local Elections, but a Moderate Party in RS Makes Significant Gains,” Transitions Online, October 4, 2004. Available at http://www.tol.cz/. 21. Interview with Nerzuk Curak, BiH Dani, October 5, 2006. Monitored by Financial Times Info, “Political Analyst Says Outcome of General Election ‘Disastrous’ for Bosnia,” October 10, 2006. 22. For details, see Slobodna Bosna, June 6, 1998, and Oslobodjenje, June 13, 1998. 23. Author interview, Zagreb, June 18, 2001. 24. Author interview with Stjepan Kluic, second president of HDZ-BiH, Sarajevo, June 2, 2001. 25. One good review of HDZ’s early history is available in “Two Eyes in One Head: History of HDZ,” Slobodna Bosna, June 6, 1998. See also “Tudjman’s New Remote Control: Final Split in HDZ-BiH,” Oslobod- jenje, June 13, 1998, and International Crisis Group, Changing Course: Implications of the Divide in Bosnian Croat Politics, Europe Report No. 39, August 13, 1998. 26. See International Crisis Group, Changing Course: Implications of the Divide in Bosnian Croat Politics, Europe Report No. 39, August 13, 1998. 27. Author interviews, Sarajevo, June 2001. 28. Author interview, Sarajevo, May 30, 2001. 29. International Crisis Group, Bosnia’s November Elections: Dayton Stum- bles, Report No. 104, December 18, 2000, 4. Notes 175

30. For accounts of this episode, see for example Roy Gutman, “Bank Job in a Battle Zone,” Newsweek, April 30, 2001; London Times “NATO Sol- diers Back Bosnian Bank Seizure,” April 7, 2001. 31. OHR, Decision of the High Representative, March 7, 2001. Decisions of the OHR are available online at http://www.ohr.int/decisions/archive.asp. 32. Author interview, Mostar, May 22, 2001. 33. Author interview, August 2002. 34. Author interview, Mostar, August 2002. 35. Dragan Stanimirovic, “Nationalist Parties Confirm their Dominance in Bosnia’s Local Elections, but a Moderate Party in RS Makes Significant Gains,” Transitions Online, October 4, 2004. Available at http://www .tol.cz/. 36. “Main Bosnian Croat Party to Take Disciplinary Action Against Three Members,” BBC Worldwide Monitoring, October 27, 2005. 37. Financial Times Information, December 22, 2005. 38. HINA News Agency, November 11, 2005; “Bosnian Croat HDZ Rift Deepens as Incidents Mar Party Session,” BH Radio 1, supplied by BBC Monitoring Europe, January 5, 2006; “European Group to Keep Ban on Bosnian Croat Party Until Leader Resigns,” HINA News Agency, Zagreb, January 16, 2006, supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring, January 16, 2006. 39. “Paddy Ashdown: Bosnia’s Future is in EU,” Vecernji List, January 30, 2006. 40. HRT1 TV Zabreb, supplied by BBC Monitoring Europe, April 7, 2006. 41. HRT1, TV Zagreb, supplied by BBC Worldwide Monitoring, April 7, 2006. 42. 31st Report of the High Representative for Implementation of the Peace Agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Secretary General of the United Nations, May 16, 2007. 43. See Tim Judah, The Serbs: History, Myth and the Destruction of Yugoslavia (New Haven, CT: Yale Nota Bene, 2000). 44. RS total budget that year was $250 million. ICG, “Republika Srpska— Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?” April 6, 1999. 45. Author interview, Banja Luka, August 2002. 46. Author interview, Banja Luka, August 2002. 47. This section is drawn from Carrie Manning, “Elections and Political Change in Post-War Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Democratization 11, no. 2 (April 2004): 60–86. 48. Author interviews, Kalini´cand Cavi´ ˘ c, Banja Luka, June 2001 and August 2002. 176 Notes

49. Confidential author interviews with SDS party officials, Banja Luka, August 2002. 50. For details, see International Crisis Group, Implementing Equality: The ‘Constituent Peoples’ Decision in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Balkans Report no. 128, (16 April 2002). 51. Author interviews with Kalinićand Cavić,˘ Banja Luka, August 2002. 52. Office of the High Representative, “Decision Removing Dr. Dragan Kalinić from his Positions as Chairman of the RSNA and as President of the SDS,” June 29, 2004. 53. For details, see the text of OHR’s June 30, 2004, decisions, http:// www.ohr.int/decisions/archive.asp?m=&yr=2004. 54. Bosnian Serb news agency SRNA, supplied by BBC Worldwide Moni- toring, September 29, 2005. 55. Ibid. 56. Agence France Presse, “International Envoy Lifts Freeze on Funding for Serb Nationalist Party,” October 28, 2005. 57. “SDS Violates HR’s Decision: OHR,” ONASA News Agency, supplied by Financial Times Information, September 15, 2005. 58. “Bosnian Serb President Under Attack from His Own Party,” Nezavisne Novine November 5, 2005, supplied by Financial Times Information, November 9, 2005. 59. Financial Times Information, April 18, 2006. 60. Thirty-first Report of the High Representative for Implementation of the Peace Agreement on Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Secretary-Gen- eral of the United Nations, Wednesday, May 16, 2007. Available at http://www.ohr.int/other-doc/hr-reports/default.asp?content_id =39813. 61. Interview with Dragan Cavić,˘ BiH Dani, October 27, 2006. 62. Thirty-first Report of the High Representative for Implementation of the Peace Agreement for Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Secretary Gen- eral of the United Nations, May 16, 2007. 63. Author interview, Prime Minister of Canton 8, May 28, 2001. 64. These regulations are the result of a case brought before the constitutional court regarding the constitutional status of Bosnia’s three ethnonational groups. See “Constituent People’s Decision of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina,” in Official Gazette of BiH, no. 23/00, September 14, 2000. 65. Author interviews with party leaders and elected HDZ cantonal and municipal officials in Western Herzegovina and Central Bosnia, June 2001. According to HDZ regional party board leaders, this practice of Notes 177

separate administration was abandoned by 2002, but its spirit lives on particularly in Mostar. 66. Author interviews with Croat government officials in Canton 7, 8, and 10, May 2001. 67. In 1996, HDZ had an absolute majority of votes in four cantons. In three of those four, its share was above 80 percent. In 1998, it again dominated the vote in four cantons, though with slightly lower majori- ties. In both 2000 and 2002, HDZ won majority vote shares in only two cantons, with vote shares in both falling slightly from 2000 to 2002. 68. Author interview, Banja Luka, June 15, 2001. 69. Nina Casperson, “Contingent Nationalist Dominance: Intra-Serb Chal- lenges to the Serb Democratic Party,” Nationalities Papers 34, no. 1 (2006): 64. Detailed accounts of politics in the Republika Srpska can be found in several reports by the International Crisis Group. See ICG, Bosnia’s November Elections: Dayton Stumbles, Report No. 104, Decem- ber 18, 2000; ICG, Bosnia’s Municipal Elections 2000: Winners and Losers, Report No. 91, April 27, 2000; ICG, Republika Srpska—Poplasen, Brcko, and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out? Report No. 62, April 6, 1999; ICG, The Wages of Sin: Confronting Bosnia’s Republika Srpska, Report No. 118, October 8, 2001. Other accounts of Serb politics in Bosnia are in Robert Thomas, Serbia under Milosevic: Politics in the 1990s (London: Hurst and Company, 1999), and Tim Judah, The Serbs: History, Myth, and the Destruction of Yugoslavia (New Haven, CT: Yale/Nota Bene, 2000). 70. OSCE RC Sarajevo field report, August 22, 2003. Refers to Cantons 6 and 7. OSCE field reports are available at OSCE archives, Sarajevo, Bosnia. 71. OSCE RC Mostar field reports, October 3, 2003, and September 26, 2003. 72. OSCE RC Mostar field report, September 12, 2003. 73. OSCE RC Sarajevo field report, January 3, 2003. 74. Field report, Regional Coordinator, Banja Luka, January 3, 2003. 75. OSCE RC Mostar field report, November 21, 2003. 76. OSCE RC Mostar field report, November 14, 2003. 77. OSCE RC Mostar field report, November 7, 2003. 78. OSCE, Special Audit Review, 2004, 1. 79. OSCE SDS audit 2004, 3. 80. OSCE RC Mostar field report, March 7, 2003. 81. OSCE RC Mostar, September 5, 2003. 82. OSCE RC Sarajevo field report, July 27, 2001. 83. Personal observation. 178 Notes

Chapter 4 1. “El Salvador: FMLN Vows to Reverse Neo-liberal Measures if Wins Elections,” Panama City ACAN-EFE, September 1, 2003. 2. Terry Lynn Karl, “El Salvador’s Negotiated Revolution,” Foreign Affairs 71, no. 2 (1992): 147–64. 3. Gerardo L. Munck, “Beyond Electoralism in El Salvador: Conflict Res- olution through Negotiated Compromise,” Third World Quarterly 14, no. 1 (1993): 76. 4. Cynthia McClintock, Revolutionary Movements in Latin America: El Sal- vador’s FMLN and Peru’s Shining Path (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1998); Elisabeth J. Wood, “Civil War and the Trans- formation of Elite Representation in El Salvador,” in Kevin J. Middle- brook, ed., Conservative Parties, the Right, and Democracy in Latin America (Baltimore:, MD Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000); Elisa- beth J. Wood, Forging Democracy from Below: Insurgent Transitions in South Africa and El Salvador (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000). 5. McClintock, 90–91. 6. Ibid., 83. 7. CD was a coalition of MPSC (Popular Social Christian Movement), PSD (Social Democratic Party), and UDN. 8. McClintock, 83–85. 9. Karl, 152. 10. Ibid. 11. Gerardo L. Munck, “Beyond Electoralism in El Salvador: Conflict Res- olution through Negotiated Compromise,” Third World Quarterly 14, no. 1 (1993): 75–93. 12. See Munck (1993), McClintock (1998), and Karl (1992). 13. Interpress Service News Agency, “El Salvador: Former Rebel FMLN Has Real Chance of Winning,” June 19, 2003. 14. Niko Schvarz, “La Perspectiva Electoral del FMLN Salvadoreno,” La Republica em la RED, August 13, 2003. 15. “Nueve Partidos en Contienda,” La Prensa Grafica, March 12, 2000. 16. Author interview, UNDP representative for local governance issues, San Salvador, September 22, 2004. 17. Wood, “Civil War and the Transformation of Elite Representation.” 18. For the 2006 legislative elections, FDR allied with another leftist party (UDC) to create Democratic Change, which is also known as CD. 19. “Flores Concerned FMLN Could Hinder US–Salvadoran Relations,” El Diario de Hoy, June 5, 2003. Notes 179

20. Jack Spence, “Post War Transitions: Elections and Political Parties in El Salvador and Nicaragua,” prepared for presentation at the Latin Ameri- can Studies Association Congress, Guadalajara, Mexico, April 17–19, 1997. 21. Spence, 18. 22. Wade, “From Rebel Movement to Political Party in El Salvador: the FMLN.” 23. Ibid., 12. 24. Spence, 23. 25. Rubén Zamora, La Izquierda Partidaria Salvadoreña: Entre la Identidade y el Poder (San Salvador: FLACSO, 2003), 128–131. 26. Wade, 10–12. 27. “Cisma en el FMLN: Facundo deja coordinacion,” La Prensa Grafica, March 16, 1999. 28. Author interview, Santa Tecla, September 20, 2004. 29. Zamora, 126. 30. Ibid., 81. 31. Ibid., 128. 32. Ibid. 33. Tim Campbell, The Quiet Revolution: Decentralization and the Rise of Political Participation in Latin American Cities (Pittsburgh, PA: Univer- sity of Pittsburgh Press, 2003), 149. 34. Ibid. 35. Ibid. 36. H. Baldersheim et al., eds., Local Democracy and the Process of Transfor- mation in East-Central Europe (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1996). 37. Christopher Sabatini, “Decentralization and Political Parties,” Journal of Democracy 14, no. 2 (April 2003): 140–41. 38. Interview in La Prensa Grafica, March 21, 2003. 39. Author interview, Santa Tecla, September 20, 2004. 40. Author interviews with local government program officer, USAID, San Salvador, Sept. and with local government program director, RTI, San Salvador, September 2004. 41. Ben Crosby et al., “Democracy Sector Assessment: El Salvador,” San Sal- vador: Management Systems International, May 1997, p. 12. 42. Author interview, Research Triangle International representative, San Salvador, September 2004; author interview, USAID official responsible for local government programs, San Salvador, September 2004; author interview, UNDP official for decentralization programs. 43. Zamora, 83. 44. “El Terreno en Pugna del FMLN,” El Mundo, July 24, 2004. 180 Notes

45. Author interview, Santa Tecla, September 20, 2004. 46. “Ortiz: La Dirigencia del FMLN Deberá Ir Cambiando,” La Prensa Grafica, March 21, 2003. 47. “Handal: Voy a Estar en el Partido Hasta que Muera,” La Prensa Grafica, March 21, 2003. 48. “El Salvador: Race Wide Open,” Latin America Monitor: Central Amer- ica Monitor 20, no. 7 (July 2003): 1–2. 49. Ibid. 50. El Diario de Hoy, Especiale Elecciones 2004, http://www.elsalvador .com/especiales/2003/elecciones2004/fmln/nota1.html. 51. “Resultados Electorales y Lucha Interna en el FMLN,” Realidad Lati- noamericana y Caribena, http://www.caritaspanama.org/incidencia/realidad _lc/resultados_electorales_fmln.html. 52. Alberto Arene, Salvadoran political analyst interviewed by Interpress, June 19, 2003. “El Salvador: Former Rebel FMLN has Real Chance of Winning.” 53. “Ortiz Apuesta a Desplazar de la Escena a Handal,” El Diario de Hoy, June 18, 2004. 54. Christine Wade, “From Rebel Movement to Political Party in El Sal- vador: the FMLN,” in From Soldiers to Politicians: Transforming Rebel Movements After Civil War, ed. Jeroen de Zeeuw (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2008). 55. Ibid. 56. Processo, weekly news bulletin of the Center for Information, Documen- tation, and Research Support of the Central American University, May 28, 2003, no. 1050.p 57. “El Salvador: Facundo Guardado Says Half the FMLN Does Not Want Handal to Win,” El Diario de Hoy, November 27, 2003. 58. Ibid. 59. Zamora, 132–33. 60. Author interview, San Salvador, September 15, 2004. 61. Ricardo Córdova Macías and Leslie Quiñonez Basagoitia, “La Situación Actual del Asociacionismo Local: El Caso de COMURES,” Documento de Trabajo, Serie Descentralización y Gobierno Municipal 98-1 (San Salvador: Fundacion Dr. Guillermo Manuel Ungo FundaUngo, 1998), 6–7. 62. Alberto Enriquez and Marcos Rodriguez, “Participacion Ciudadana y Construccion de Alianzas para el Desarrollo Local,” Desarrollo Local y Descentralizacion en Centroamerica: Primera Conferencia Centroameri- cana, ed. Funder-Fundaungo (San Salvador: Funder-Fundaungo, 2001). 63. Author interview, Morales UNDP, September 2004. Notes 181

64. Córdova Macías and Quiñonez Basagoitia, “La Situación Actual.” 65. Author interview, San Salvador, September 15, 2004. 66. Author interviews with USAID, Research Triangle, and UNDP officials responsible for local government development. San Salvador, September 15–18, 2004. 67. “El Salvador,” in Political Handbook of the World 2007, ed. Arthur S. Banks, Thomas C. Muller, and William R. Overstreet (New York: McGraw Hill, 2006), 368–73.

Conclusion 1. Christine Wade, “From Rebel Movement to Political Party in El Sal- vador: The Case of the FMLN,” in From Soldiers to Politicians: Trans- forming Rebel Movements after Civil War, ed. Jeroen de Zeeuw (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2008). 2. Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, “The Rise of Competitive Authori- tarianism,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (April 2002): 53–54. 3. Andreas Schedler, “Democratization by Elections: The Menu of Manip- ulation,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (2002): 113. 4. For that matter, our investigation raises questions about the implications of internal party democracy for party adaptation to democratic rules, or indeed for party adaptation to environmental challenges more generally. Internal democracy appears to have little connection to whether or not a party commits to democratic rules and procedures governing inter-party competition. Selected Bibliography

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Adaptation, by parties: 8, 9, 10, 23, 29, party formation in, 84–92; HDZ 34, 38, 53, 153 and electoral competition, 99–101, Africa: 3, 6, 17, 21–22, 24, 45–46, 141–154; SDS party formation, 48–49, 51–52, 81, 146 92–98, 105–107, 141–154; SDS ARENA: 119–123, 126, 132–133, and electoral politics, 101–102, 107, 135–136, 139 111; Local politics in, 102–111, Assembly: of Republic in Mozambique 122–123 (AR), 50, 55–56, 60–61, 64, 67, 70; Boutros-Ghali, Boutros: 14 RS National Assembly in Bosnia, 81, Boycotts: electoral by Renamo, 44, 52, 83, 89, 95–97, 104, 107; Legislative 57–59; of parliament by Renamo, Assembly in El Salvador, 118, 120 44, 52, 57–58, 60; of elections by Autonomy: of party leaders, 35–36; of HDZ, 90; of cantonal government Renamo parliamentary delegation, by Bosniak politicians, 107; of 44, 61, 65, 154; of ethnonational inauguration of Saca, 133 groups in Bosnia, 87, 103; of local Breakaway parties: 92, 102, 123, 126, government in Bosnia, 103, 122; of 138–139, 152 local government in El Salvador, 122, 135, 136, 138; of constituent Calderón Sol, Armando: 120 organizations of FMLN, 127; of Candidate-based elections: 115, 147 municipal candidates in general, Candidate selection: 38–41, 147; in 147, 153 FMLN, 129–131, 134, 139 Belgrade: 74, 150 Canjura Rene: 133 Belligerents: 7, 43, 76, 154; see also Cantonal government in Bosnia: 82, 89, Rebels and Guerrillas 90, 92, 100–101, 103–107, 112, Bosnia: 2, 7, 10, 15, 39, 72–73; History 148 ˘ of conflict in, 74–75; Dayton Peace Cavi´c, Dragan: 98 Agreement, 74–80, 86–88, 92–99, CD: 118, 120, 122–123, 128, 132, 138 102, 111–112, 150, 152, 155 (See CDU: 123, 138 also Dayton Peace Agreement); Ceasefire: in Mozambique, 47; in El Constitution of, 75, 77–78; Salvador, 118 Electoral system, 77–78; and Centralization: of parties, 35–36, 43, international actors, 79–81 (See also 47, 50, 61, 69, 95, 107, 127, 151 OSCE and OHR); Environmental Challenges: for party leaders in general, complexity in, 81–84; HDZ and 7–11, 13, 26–29, 32, 34–43, 144, 194 Index

Challenges—continued Dayton Peace Agreement: 74–80, 83, 148, 150–152, 154; for Renamo 86–88, 92–99, 102, 111–112, 150, leadership, 49–50, 56, 60, 67, 69, 152, 155 71; for SDS and HDZ, 74, 83–4, Decentralization: in Bosnia, 103, 110, 86–88, 93, 99–102, 107, 111–112, 122; in El Salvador, 122, 128 115, 120–124 Democracy: 1–3, 5–6, 8, 10, 13–17, Collective incentives: 30, 88, 101–102 20–27, 33, 37, 40–41, 47, 49, 55, Communist Party, El Salvador: 57, 62, 70, 91, 113, 129, 134, 138, 116–117, 125 141–147, 154–155 Competitiveness, electoral: 3, 8, 29, 30, Democratization: 1–3, 5–6, 14–18, 22, 24–25, 29, 39, 52, 91, 110, 141, 32, 123, 146, 147, 154 143–144, 148, 153, 155 Complexity: environmental 20, 29–30, Democratizers: 10, 16, 17 33, 43, 55, 76, 81, 83–84, 122–123, Deputies: Renamo, 45, 50, 51, 56, 58, 144–147, 151, 154; organizational, 60–61, 63–64, 67; HDZ, 91; SDS, 20, 151 96; FMLN, 121, 126, 129, COMURES: 132, 135, 136 133–134, 148. See also Conference, party: Renamo, 64; SDS, parliamentarians and legislators 94, 96 Dhlakama, Afonso: 44–70, 133, 147, Consolidation, democratic and parties 151 3, 22, 25, 27 Divisions: in political parties, 25, 27, Constituencies: for reform within 30, 33, 137, 142; in Renamo, 54, parties: 8, 20, 23, 26–27, 33, 38, 41, 78, 152; in HDZ and SDS, 84–85, 71, 77, 81, 84, 88, 90, 94–95, 121, 97; in FMLN, 125–127, 134, 138, 142, 144, 147–148, 151–155, Dodik, Milorad: 82–83, 94, 95, 97, 155 148, 148, 151, 151, 152, 152, 153, Dominant coalition: 30, 33, 147; in 153, 154, 154, 155 Renamo, 30, 33; in HDZ, 74, 85, Constitutional: design, 6, 142; reform 86, 99; in SDS, 74, 93, 99, 102 in Mozambique, 48; Court in Domingos, Raul: 45, 51, 55, 61, 64, 69 Mozambique, 59, 67; framework in Donors: 9, 22, 25, 3 3, 142, 143, 146, Mozambique, 50, 55; reform in 149; in Mozambique, 47–49, Bosnia, 92, 107; Court in Bosnia, 51–53, 57, 62, 70; in Bosnia, 80, 76, 97; framework in Bosnia, 75–78, 81, 84, 95; in El Salvador, 129, 130, 90–92, 100–103, 111, 150; in El 135, 136, 137 Salvador, 121, 142 Duarte, Jose Napoleon: 117, 120 Convention, party: HDZ, 91; SDS, 98; Economy: 7, 16, 66, 70, 100, 120, 132 FMLN, 127. See also Conference, Elections: and democratic statebuilding, party 1–10, 142–155; and party COPAZ: 119 development, 13–32, 142–155; in C˘ovi´c, Dragan: 91, 92 multiple political arenas, 32–36; and Croatia: 7, 10, 73, 74, 76, 85–88, challenges to party leaders, 37–40; in 91–92, 100, 141, 152 Mozambique, 43–70; in Bosnia, Cuellar, Javier Perez: 118 73–112; in El Salvador, 112–138 Index 195

Electoralism: 2–3, 7–8, 13–16, 20–22, Frelimo: 43–46, 48–71 24, 38, 40, 73, 93, 95, 112–113, 138, 150, 153 Gonzalez, Medardo: 133 Elites: 3, 17, 21, 23, 28, 36, 63, 88, 89, Governance: of parties, 15, 25, 32, 37; 99, 102, 115, 116, 118, 129, 141 participation in, 147, 142, 144, 146; El Salvador: 7–10, 22, 114–48; Impact in or by Renamo, 44, 50, 56; in of electoralism on parties in, Bosnia, 75, 92, 102, 109–110; in El 115–116, 124–135; Civil war, Salvador, 121–122, 127–130, 135, 116–118; Formation of FMLN, 136 116–118; Peace agreement, Governors: 58, 121, 128, 135 118–119; Election results in, General Peace Accord (GPA), 119–121; Constitutional framework, Mozambique: 43, 57 121–122; Party system, 121–122; Guardado, Facundo: 126, 127, 129, 134 Environmental complexity for Guebuza, Armando Emilio: 51, 54, FMLN, 122–124; Local government 59–60, 70, 154 and FMLN, 135–138 Guerrilla: 51, 115, 124 Environment: parties’ external: 4–6, 15, 18, 21, 28–31, 33–37, 143–147, Habituation: 7, 141 150, 151, 154; Renamo’s, 41–44, Hague: 87 53–55, 70; for HDZ and SDS, 74, Handal, Schafik: 116, 126, 131–134, 81, 83–4, 88; for FMLN, 122–123 137 Ethnonationalism: 79, 110 Hardliners: 93, 95, 118, 144, 149 Ethnonationalist: 73, 88 HDZ: 7–9, 69, 73–78, 81–94, 99–112, European: 22, 33, 52, 75, 91, 98, 103, 123, 134, 138, 141, 144, 147 152 HDZ-Croatia: 87–88, 91 Executive office: 4, 18, 33, 50, 80, 94, Herceg-Bosna: 76, 86, 100 104, 110, 128, 136 Hercegovacka: 89 Extremist: 15, 79, 96 Herzegovina: 72, 74–75, 77, 83, 85–86, 90–91, 97, 99, 101, 103, 105, 109, Factions: 1, 23, 30, 32–33, 36, 38, 147, 139, 152 152, 155; of Renamo, 46, 53; in Herzeg-Neretva: 107 HDZ and SDS, 90, 95, 96, 109–111; in FMLN, 123–124, 132, Identity: party collective, 9, 13, 21, 27, 139 30, 38–40, 141–2, 147, 149, 153, Farabundo Marti Liberation Front: 7, 155; Renamo party, 54, 66; HDZ 115, 141. See also FMLN and SDS party, 102, 105, 110, 112; FDR: 133, 138 FMLN party, 116, 123–126, 134 Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Ideological: 14, 21, 23, 115–117, 75–76, 80, 82–83, 86, 88–90, 92, 125–127, 154 100–101, 103–109, 150 Ideology: 9, 30, 124–127, 132, 137, Flores, Francisco: 124, 136 155 FMLN: 7–10, 69, 115–139, 142, 144, Incentives: 3, 13, 19, 23–24, 26, 30, 147–155 32–33, 37, 53, 69, 77, 80, 88, FPL: 117, 124, 125 101–103, 129, 143, 145–146 155 196 Index

Incumbent: 2, 4, 9, 24–25, 27–28, 32, 121, 126, 128–129, 135–137, 139, 34–37, 40, 52, 62, 83, 86, 110, 112, 142, 147, 148. See also Assembly 120, 126, 133–134, 138–139, 145, Legitimacy: 2, 9, 15, 21, 30, 44, -49, 148, 150, 153, 155 53, 133 Independence: 45, 62–63, 97, 150 Legitimation: 142 Indictees: 87 Leverage: 40, 48, 55, 58, 61, 62, 68, 80, Infrastructure: 32, 45, 54, 121–122 85, 99, 107, 143, 147 Institutionalization: 3, 13, 19, 23, Liberalization: 3, 19, 52 35–36, 39, 112, 151 Ljubic, Bozo: 91–92 Insurgency: 45, 46, 117, 121 Majority: 43, 44, 50, 52, 54–55, 58, 60, Intellectuals: 64–66, 117 63–64, 75–76, 8–83, 89–91, 94, 96, Interests: 2, 5, 16, 20, 21, 23–24, 56, 100, 104, 127, 146 64, 77–78, 83, 85–88, 94–95, 99, Maputo: 50, 59, 64, 65 102, 104, 107, 111, 129, 135–137, Marxist: 117 147–49, 155, 155 Massacres: 46, 109 Inter-ethnic: 106 Mayors: 32–33, 148; in Mozambique, Interparty: 4, 8–10, 24–25, 29–30, 55; in Bosnia, 82, 104, 1–110; in El 4154, 56, 70–71, 84, 89, 103, 112, Salvador, 120–122, 126, 138 142, 144, 148, 150, 153–155 Media: 4, 8, 10, 13, 15, 17, 18, 19, Intervention: 8, 15–16, 18, 49, 79, 20–21, 23, 25, 27, 29, 31, 33, 35, 80–81, 84, 88–89, 111, 136, 149 37, 39, 40, 41, 47, 58, 66, 68, 75, Intraelite: 63, 89 86, 93, 106, 131, 138 Intraparty: 25, 31, 71, 112, 125, 131 Mediators: 8, 13, 15, 19, 21, 23, 25, 27, Iraq: 15 29, 31, 33, 35, 37, 39, 41, 75, 86 Ivanić, Mladen: 95 Merdzo, Josip: 90–92, 123 Jelavić, Ante: 87, 89, 90, 91 Mexico: 2, 18, 25, 32–33, 116 Militants, party: 24, 105, 118, 125–126 Kalinić, Dragan: 95, 96, 101, 108 Minority: 15, 32–33, 57, 75–76, 80, Karad˘zić: 75, 93, 96, 97 86, 88, 96, 99, 120 Kosovo: 150 Mocambique: 62 Krajina: 86 Mocimboa da Praia: 62 Mocuba: 62 Leftist: 117, 134 Moderates: 77, 79, 83, 125–126, 155 Legacies: 8, 17, 142 Momade, Ossufo: 65 Legislation: 37, 52, 55–56, 60–61, 75, Mondlane, Eduardo: 64, 67 100, 104, 135–136 Mostar: 80, 89, 101, 105, 107 Legislative: 4, 18, 21, 32, 43–44, Mozambican: 46–49, 51–52, 54, 82, 47–48, 50–51, 55–56, 58, 61–62, 148 64–65, 77, 82, 90–91, 93, 118–127, Mozambique: 7, 10; Civil war in, 131–132, 137–138, 151, 153 45–50; Renamo party formation and Legislators: 112, 133–134, 146, 148, development in, 48–50, 63–71; 151. See also Deputies Peace agreement, 47–50 (See also Legislature: 9, 44, 50, 51, 55–57, 60, GPA); Constitutional framework, 63, 70, 93, 96, 104, 115, 119, 120, 50–51; International actors, 51–53 Index 197

(See also donors); Environmental Paramilitary: 108, 117 complexity for Renamo in, 53–56; Parliament: 4, 9, 24, 26, 28, 32, 33, 39, Impact of electoralism on party 44, 45, 47, 49–51, 53, 54–61, development, 56–63, 68–71; 63–71, 91–96, 104, 126, 129, 131, Renamo behavior in Assembly of the 133, 143, 148, 152, 154 Republic in, 60–61 Parliamentarians: 39, 51. See also Mulembwe, Eduardo: 61 Deputies and Legislators Multiethnic: 18, 73, 76, 83, 85, 103, PCN: 120, 122 109 PCS: 117 Multiparty: 16, 43, 47, 57, 60, 66–70, PDC: 120–122, 132 112, 149, 154 PDD: 55, 68 Municipal government and elections: PDP: 82, 95, 97 28, 32, 47, 50, 62, 70, 75–76, Peace-keeping: 76 80–84, 87, 89, 90, 91, 100–138, Personalized: 21, 36, 43, 44, 47, 61, 68, 147–148, 153 69, 151 PMR: 126 Namburete, Eduardo: 67 Polarization: 18, 24, 53–54, 60, 62, 69, Nationalism: 79, 83, 92, 98, 110, 141, 70, 105, 123, 127, 145, 149 149 Polarized: 8, 20, 4, 122, 151 Nejapa: 120, 133 Polls: 57, 60, 63, 81, 97, 118, 121, 131, Neoliberal: 16 131, 149, 149 NGOs: 45, 51, 55, 61, 64, 69, 130, Portugal: 47, 49, 65 136, 137 Presidential: 32, 33, 47, 50, 51, 60, 62, NHI: 82, 152 68, 116, 119, 121–127, 132–134, Ninkovic: 108 138 Primaries, party: 127, 131, 132 observers: 39, 47, 58, 59, 65, 73, 120, Privatization: 109, 116 130, 132, 134 Prlic, Jadranko: 152 office-maximizing: 124, 155 PRTC: 117, 124, 125 OHR (Office of the High Representative): 73, 75, 77, 79, 80, Quelimane: 67 83, 84, 89, 90, 96–98 Quezaltepeque: 129 Opposition: 3, 4, 7, 8, 10, 18, 19, 24, 25–26, 33–34, 43, 44, 49, 52–55, Rebel: 1, 49, 62, 118–119, 122 58, 60, 61, 64, 65–68, 70, 74, 75, Reconstruction: 14, 121–122 93, 96, 102, 107, 111, 112, 117, Recruitment: 38–39, 65, 110 122, 123, 136, 137, 138, 141–147, Reformist: 9, 68, 80, 91, 95–96, 98, 150, 153, 154 116, 124–126, 129, 130–133, Orthodox: 9, 116, 124, 125–127, 137–138, 148–149, 152–155 131–134, 137–138, 148, 152 Refugees: 45, 75, 95 Ortiz, Oscar: 126, 129, 130–133 Renamo: 7–10, 31, 35, 43, 44, 45, 46, OSCE (Organization for Security and 47, 48, 49, 50–71, 92, 101, 123, Cooperation in Europe): 73, 75, 77, 133, 134, 138, 141, 144, 147, 148, 78, 79, 80, 82, 84, 89, 106, 107, 151–154 108, 109 Renovadores (wing of FMLN): 126 198 Index

Republika Srpska: 75, 82, 86, 92, 94, SNS: 77, 82, 83, 93, 94, 95, 97, 98, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 147, 154 111, 144, 152, 155 Resources, party: 6, 9, 10, 13, 16, 21, SNSD: 77, 82–83, 94–98, 111, 144, 22, 27, 28, 31–34, 48–49, 52, 54, 155 88, 92–93, 102, 112, 121, 128, 130, Socioeconomic factors: 6, 17, 24, 54, 137, 142–143, 145, 150 79, 94, 125, 145 Responses, party leaderships’: 13, 26, Sofala: 46–47 36–41, 56, 133 Soviet: 6, 20 Rightist: 121 Soyapango: 135 Rule-making: 20, 30, 69 Spain: 52 Rule stability: 33, 84, 123, 142, 144, Split, with party: 25, 32, 33, 82, 85, 93, 94, 104, 123, 125, 126, 127, 151, 150 152 Ruling party: 24–26, 43–44, 55, 57, 58, Spoilers: 34 60, 61, 64–68, 70–71, 96–97, 106, STAE (Technical Secretariat for the 112, 115, 122, 135, 142, 145, 149, Administration of Elections— 151, 153 Mozambique): 56 Saca, Antonio: 132–133 Structural factors: 6, 16, 17, 18, 54, 74, Sant’Egidio: 47 145, 149, 150, 153, 155 Sarovic, Mirko: 97, 108 Tambara, Almeida: 68 SDS: 7–9, 39, 69, 73–77, 81–85, Transformation, party: 3, 20, 48–49, 91–112, 123, 138, 141, 144, 147, 57, 131, 155 148, 150–155 Security dilemma: 94–102 UNOMOZ: 47 Selective incentives: 32 USAID: 121, 130 Selectorate: 38 Villalobos, Joaquin: 124 Senegal: 25 Voting: 5, 38–39, 53, 57–59, 62, 77, Serbs: 7, 10, 39, 73–79, 82–83, 86, 99, 109, 120, 123, 145 92–101, 103–104, 108–109, 111–112, 141, 149, 150 Zambezia: 46–47, 59 Serbia: 7, 10, 39, 73, 74, 76, 92, 93, 95, Zimbabwe: 45 100, 112, 141, 150 Zubak, Kresimir: 86, 87, 152