Notes Introduction 1. Dankwart Rustow, “Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model,” Comparative Politics 2, no. 3 (April 1970): 358. 2. For an elaboration on this, see Roland Paris, At War’s End: Building Peace after Civil Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). See also Simon Chesterman, You the People: The United Nations, Transitional Administration, and Statebuilding (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005). 3. Robert Grenier, “If You Love Lebanon, Set It Free,” New York Times, December 17, 2006. 4. For a discussion, see Carrie Manning, “Political Elites and Democratic State-building Efforts in Bosnia and Iraq,” Democratization 13, no. 5 (December 2006): 724–38. 5. Thomas Carothers, “The End of the Transition Paradigm,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 1 (2002): 8. 6. I define electoralism as a demonstrated commitment to holding regular, periodic elections. 7. Edward D. Mansfield and Jack Snyder, “Prone to Violence: The Paradox of the Democratic Peace,” National Interest (Winter 2005/06): 39–45. For the full argument, see Mansfield and Snyder, Electing to Fight: Why Emerging Democracies Go to War (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2005). 8. Paris, At War’s End. 9. See, for example, Fareed Zakaria, “The Rise of Illiberal Democracy,” Foreign Affairs 76 (November–December 1997): 22–43; Andreas Schedler, “Elections Without Democracy: The Menu of Manipulation,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (2002): 36–50; Nicolas van de Walle, “Africa’s Range of Regimes,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (April 2002): 66–80; Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, “The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism,” Journal of Democracy 13, no. 2 (April 2002), 51–65. 158 Notes Larry Diamond, “Thinking About Hybrid Regimes,” Journal of Democ- racy 13, no. 2 (April 2002): 21–35; Terry Lynn Karl, “The Hybrid Regimes of Central America,” Journal of Democracy 6 (July 1995): 72–86. 10. Richard Joseph, “Africa: States in Crisis,” Journal of Democracy 14, no. 3 (July 2003): 160. 11. Staffan Lindberg, “The Democratic Qualities of Competitive Elections: Participation, Competition and Legitimacy in Africa,” Journal of Com- monwealth and Comparative Politics 42, no. 1 (March 2004): 61–105. 12. Terrence Lyons, “The Role of Post-Settlement Elections,” in Ending Civil Wars, ed. Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild, and Elizabeth M. Cousens (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2002), 215–35. 13. George Tsebelis, Nested Games: Rational Choice in Comparative Politics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990). 14. Richard Rose and Thomas T. Mackie, “Do Parties Persist or Fail? The Big Trade-Off Facing Organizations,” in When Parties Fail: Emerging Alternative Organizations, ed. Kay Lawson and Peter H. Merkl (Prince- ton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1988), 534. 15. Andreas Schedler, “The Nested Game of Democratization by Elections,” International Political Science Review 23, no. 1 (2002): 103–22. 16. A recent volume on electoral authoritarianism addresses the relation- ships between parties and repeated elections quite explicitly. See Andreas Schedler, ed., Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Compe- tition (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006). See especially pieces by Joy Langston, “Elite Ruptures: When do Ruling Parties Split?”; Nicolas van de Walle, “Tipping Games: When do Opposition Parties Coalesce?”; William Case, “Manipulative Skills: How do Rulers Control the Elec- toral Arena?”; Mark R. Thompson and Philipp Kuntz, “After Defeat: When do Rulers Steal Elections?”; and Staffan I. Lindberg, “Tragic Protest: Why do Opposition Parties Boycott Elections?” On Latin America, see, for example, Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully, Party Systems in Latin America (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995); Scott Mainwaring, Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999). On Africa, see Matthijs Bogaards, “Electoral Choices for Divided Societies: Multi-Ethnic Parties and Constituency Polling in Africa,” Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Studies 41, no. 3 (2004): 59–80; van de Walle, “Presidentialism and Clientelism in Africa’s Emerging Party Sys- tems,” Journal of Modern African Studies 41, no. 2 (2003): 297–321; Lindberg, “Institutionalization of Party Systems? Stability and Fluidity Notes 159 Among Legislative Parties in Africa’s Democracies,” paper presented at APSA annual meeting, November 17–20, 2005; Michelle Kuenzi and Gina Lambright, “Party Systems and Democratic Consolidation in Africa’s Electoral Regimes,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 423–44; Sha- heen Mozaffar and James R. Scarritt, “The Puzzle of African Party Systems,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 399–421; Carrie Manning, “African Party Systems after the Third Wave,” Party Politics 11, no. 6 (2005): 707–27. On Eastern Europe, see, for example, Herbert Kitschelt et al., Post-Communist Party Systems (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Richard Rose and Neil Munro, Elections and Parties in New European Democracies (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2003); and Geof- frey Pridham, Stabilising Fragile Democracies: Comparing New Party Sys- tems in Southern and Eastern Europe (London: Routledge, 1996). 17. Larry Diamond, “Introduction: In Search of Consolidation,” in Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien eds., Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies: Regional Challenges (Balti- more: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997), xxiii. 18. On socioeconomic and demographic change, see R. J. Dalton and M. Kuechler, eds., Challenging the Political Order: New Social and Political Movements in Western Democracies (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1990); R. J. Dalton and M. P. Wattenberg, eds., Parties without Parti- sans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies (Oxford: Oxford University Press); Ronald Inglehart, Culture Shift in Advanced Industrial Societies (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1990); L. Karvonen and S. Kuhnle, eds., Party Systems and Voter Alignment Revis- ited (London: Routledge, 2001). On institutional frameworks and party change, see John M. Carey, “Institutional Design and Party Systems,” in Larry Diamond, Marc F. Plattner, Yun-han Chu, and Hung-mao Tien, eds., Consolidating the Third Wave Democracies (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1997), 67–92, and Larry Diamond and Richard Gunther, eds., Political Parties and Democracy (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2001). 19. On Eastern Europe see, for example, Herbert Kitschelt et al., Post-Com- munist Party Systems (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002); Richard Rose and Neil Munro, Elections and Parties in New European Democracies (Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2003); Geoffrey Pridham, Stabilising Fragile Democracies: Comparing New Party Systems in Southern and Eastern Europe (London: Routledge, 1996); Richard Hofferbert, Parties and Democracy: Party Structure and Party Performance in Old and New Democracies (Oxford: Blackwell, 1989); Franz Oswald, The Party 160 Notes That Came in out of the Cold War: The Party of Democratic Socialism in United Germany (Westport, CT: Praeger, 2002); and Ingrid van Biezen and Peter Mair, “Political Parties,” in Paul M. Heywood, Erik Jones, Martin Rhodes, and Ulrich Sedelmaier, eds., Developments in European Politics (New York: Palgrave, 2006), 97–116. On Latin America, see, for example, Scott Mainwaring and Timothy Scully, Party Systems in Latin America (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995); Scott Main- waring, Rethinking Party Systems in the Third Wave of Democratization (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999); Mitchell A. Seligson and John A. Booth, Elections and Democracy in Central America, Revis- ited (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1995); and Todd Eisenstadt, Courting Democracy in Mexico: Party Strategies and Electoral Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). On Africa, see Matthijs Bogaards, “Electoral Choices for Divided Societies: Multi- Ethnic Parties and Constituency Polling in Africa,” Journal of Common- wealth and Comparative Studies 41, no. 3 (2004): 59–80; van de Walle, “Presidentialism and Clientelism in Africa’s Emerging Party Systems,” Journal of Modern African Studies 41, no. 2 (2003): 297–321; Lindberg, “Institutionalization of Party Systems? Stability and Fluidity Among Legislative Parties in Africa’s Democracies,” paper presented at APSA annual meeting, November 17–20, 2005; Michelle Kuenzi and Gina Lambright, “Party Systems and Democratic Consolidation in Africa’s Electoral Regimes,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 423–44; Shaheen Mozaffar and James R. Scarritt, “The Puzzle of African Party Systems,” Party Politics 11, no. 4 (2005): 399–421; and Carrie Manning, “African Party Systems after the Third Wave,” Party Politics 11, no. 6 (2005): 707–27. 20. Serenella Sferza, “Party Organization and Party Performance: The Case of the French Socialist Party,” in Richard Gunther, José Ramón Mon- tero, and Juan J. Linz, eds., Political Parties: Old Concepts and New Chal- lenges (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), 168. 21. Robert Harmel and Kenneth Janda, “An Integrated Theory of Party Goals and Party Change,” Journal of Theoretical Politics 6, no. 3 (1994): 259–87. 22. Kaare Strøm and Wolfgang C. Müller, “Political Parties and Hard Choices,” in Policy, Office, or Votes? How Political Parties in Western Europe Make Hard Decisions, ed. Müller and Strøm (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999), 1–35; Richard Rose and Thomas T. Mackie, “Do Parties Persist or Fail? The Big Trade-Off