Variability of Voting Pattern among Ethnic Nationality in the 2015 Gubernatorial Elections of Delta State IKENGA, F. A. Department of Political Science Faculty of the Social Sciences Delta State University, Abraka, Delta State. E-mail: [email protected] pp 352 - 360 Abstract he study assessed the variability of voting pattern among the different ethnic groups in the 2015 governorship election in Delta State. Data was Tcollected in respect of the votes from the 8 major ethnic groups in the state, and was analyzed accordingly. The hypothesis formulated was tested at 5% level of significance with the aid of the Kruskal- Wallis test. Findings indicate that there was no significant variation in the voting pattern of Deltans across the different ethnic groups. This simply indicates that ethnicity did not influence the results of the 2015 governorship election in Delta State. Given this result, the study recommended that the winner of the 2015 governorship election should form an all-inclusive government and ensure that no ethnic group experience any form of marginalization. Government should also strive to sustain unity among the various ethnic groups in the State by ensuring good governance at all facets and levels. Key words: Voting Pattern, Ethnicity, Election, Delta State, Governance Nigerian Journal of Management Sciences Vol. 6 No.1, 2017 353 Introduction the total votes casted in their ethnic localities. Several The problem of ethnicity/ culture is a global issue and analysts have argued that the political behaviour of not a Nigerian phenomenon. It has been and is still some Nigeria is influenced heavily by the hyperbolic been experienced in both developing and developed assumption that one's destiny is intrinsically and nations. In Nigeria the impact of ethnicity is more exclusively 'inked with one's ethnic linguistic. devastating as it has hindered national development Ethnic based politics deserves a complete research and Nigerian leaders and people are more committed with the aim of ascertaining if it is one of the root to their ethnic group more than to the nation. The 2012 causes of underdevelopment in nations as the report of the national opinion survey of international researcher proposes that voting along ethnic ties foundation for electoral system (IFES, 2012), promotes corruption and breakdown of social Washington DC on independent survey of public cohesion which may have wreaked havoc across opinion in Nigeria, state that ethnicity is the strongest various states in Nigeria and Delta State in particular. type of identity among Nigerians. According to Bearing this in mind, this research investigate the Salawu and Hassan (2011), the correlation between variability of voting pattern among the various ethnic ethnicity and electorate is identified on aggregate and groups in Delta State in order to establish the effect of this shows that an electorate has the tendency to ethnicity on the results of the 2015 gubernatorial concentrate his/her vote along discernible ethnic line. election in Delta State. Delta State is a rich mix of ethnic nationalities and has Objectives of the Study often been referred to as a mini Nigeria. It is made up This study was carried out to achieve the following mainly of several ethnic groups with Oshimili, specific objective: Aniocha, Ndokwa, Ika, Urhobo, Ijaw, Itsekiri and i. Ascertain the variability of voting patterns Isoko as the major ethnic groups. It is quite and establish if the voting behaviour and unfortunate that ethnicity is perceived to have trends of the 2015 gubernatorial electorates continuously bedeviled politics in most states of was influenced by ethnic divide. Nigeria. This is why, Agba (2008), opine that Nigerian politicians may have learnt nothing and may Hypothesis Statement have forgotten nothing since after many years of Based on the objective, a hypothesis was formulated independence; the country's politics is still crammed to guide this study: with issues of ethnic trauma. Ethnic based politics is said to have been bequeathed to us from early Ho: There is no significant variability in the voting misguided politicians who shaped most states' pattern among ethnic nationality in the 2015 creation and this has serious effect on the political gubernatorial elections of Delta State integration of most states in the country, Delta State inclusive. Conceptual Clarification Ethnicity The avalanche of ethnic crisis that ravaged the Ethnicity is considered to be shared characteristics peaceful co-existence of Niger Delta unity, such as culture, language, religion and traditions ethnocentrism, tribalism, persecution and which contribute to a person or group's identity prebendalism has played a visible role in Delta State (Otite, 1990). Ethnic groups has been defined as politics. Kins selective altruism had made its way into groups that regards themselves as distinct community Delta state politics to concentrate state power to a by certain characteristics distinguishable from the particular ethnic group of interest. In the present other group from the surrounding community (Otite, Fourth Republic, ethnic politics/voting pattern has 1999). They are categories of people characterized by been less prominence. This may be due to the culture, language, value system and normative informal rotation and zoning arrangement of behavior. It is the contextual discrimination by principal political offices in Delta State among the members of one ethnic group against the others on the three senatorial districts. Amongst all of these, there is basis of some exclusive criteria such as political and no doubt that most people tend to cling to the socio-economic development. To another scholar, communal ties that brings them to their senatorial ethnicity is perceived as a social problem district leading them to cast their votes along characterized by competition among ethnic ethnocentric divides during elections. nationalities (Okolo, 1980). From Okolo's review, Nnoli sees these ethnic groups as social formations The 2011 general elections in Delta State gave a differentiated by boundaries, membership, language clearer picture. The outcome of the governorship and culture; where the language is perceived as the election shows a pattern of vote that was deeply ethnic most important variable. both Uduaghan and Ogboru have more than 80% of 354 Variability of Voting Pattern among Ethnic Nationality in the 2015 Gubernatorial Elections of Delta State Problems of Ethnicity in Delta State He adds that at this point the key Political parties by Ethnic rivalry in Delta State cannot be 1953 were associated with the different ethnic overemphasized. However, problems of ethnicity are nationalities and the leadership, structured along the not peculiar to Delta state alone. In fact it is also a ethnic cleavages. He concludes by calling for the re- Nigerian problem. Some of these problems include: structuring of the country with the re-orientation of a. Breeding of disunity among the ethnic the people on what nationhood entails. nations in Delta State. b. It resulted in the rival claims of ownership of Nnabuihe, Aghemalo and Okebugwu (2014) state Warri and followed by conflicts. that ethnicity has destroyed Nigeria's Politics. They c. It breeds marginalization of the minority assert that evidences have shown that ethnicity directs ethnic groups by the majority economically, voting choice and patterns. They maintain that the politically, socially, job placement. choice of Nigerians in any election are ethnically d. It causes democratic and governance crisis coloured just as the emergence of Political parties are e. It causes violence and physical displacement motivated ethnically, consequently, parties that and relocation emerged from the dominant ethnic group over- f. It serves as medium for politicians of shadows the said region and 2/3 majority in elections questionable characters to win election. become difficult to attain, except by coalition. They g. It breeds divide and rules that brings about examine the history and Nigerian voting behaviour sectional development and opine that the First and Second Republic had h. It encourages corruption and embezzlement ethnic colouration. They identify institutional (Osaghae, 1994). structures that encouraged ethnicity in Nigeria to the detriment of our democratic consolidation. They Minority issues and Rights in Delta state conclude by showing that ethnicity remains the key A numbers of scholars have traced the disadvantaged factor affecting the establishment of a truly position of the minorities in electoral democracy in democratic state Delta State to the obnoxious colonial divide and rule policy of indirect rule which not only aimed at Noko (2017) states that ethnicity in Nigerian cultural distinctions of the diverse ethnic (minority) government and politics has been a burning issue in groups but enforced a deliberate policy of separatism. the system since the beginning of democratic Gurr (2000), identifies several conditions that have government in Nigeria, and it deserves an attention. contributed to the mobilization of ethnic minorities He opines that in Nigeria, there had been treats to grievances since 1945, which include: (i) unequal national political development; and since the time of treatment of minority communities by the dominant colonial dominance one geo-ethnic group has tried to or mainstream group (ii) competition with other establish hegemony over the remaining geo-ethnic groups for accesses to power in the state (iii) the groups. He adds that