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Rising Tensions in Delta State

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Rising Tensions in Delta State THE FUND FOR PEACE PARTNERSHIPS INITATIVE IN THE NIGER DELTA NIGER DELTA PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVE A Historical Flashpoint: Rising Tensions in Delta State Briefing: September 2016 The current tensions in Delta state between unresolved conflicts in the North and the Niger Delta States, Nigeria the Ijaw, Urhobo and Itsekiri communities Niger Delta regions. can be traced back to the late 1990s and early 2000s, during the period marked by Compounding and fueled by these conflict the Warri Crisis. During that time, disputes drivers, a new wave of militancy has taken over land, natural resource revenues, and hold in Delta state, with groups like the political representation led to widespread Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) attacking and violence and the alleged deaths of blowing up pipelines and oil facilities in hundreds. A tenuous peace has held since Warri North, Warri South, and Warri South 2004, and although there were sporadic West LGAs in May and June of this year. In outbreaks of tension and violence between August, a new militant group associated the ethnic groups for the next decade, with the Urhobo ethnic group, calling particularly in 2013, it was deescalated themselves the Niger Delta Greenland Delta before it reached a crisis point. As of early Justice Mandate (NDGJM), began attacking 2014, however, with the drop in global oil delivery pipelines and other commodity prices and mounting pressures infrastructure in Delta state. Various related to the economy, land ownership, attempts to mediate the issues between the The purpose of this briefing is to provide elections, and the future of the Presidential government and the militant groups has situational awareness to Peace Actors and Amnesty Programme, the risk is becoming seen limited success, with dialogue breaking other concerned parties about the rising more acute. down among communal groups as well as tensions between communal groups in between these groups and the government. Delta State. While incidents of violence Another key driver of the Warri Crisis in the late 1990s and early 2000s was the At the same time, a Nigerian government haven’t worsened as of mid-2016, there is a proliferation of small arms and light military operation, known as “Operation significant risk that they will in the coming weapons into the hands of opposing ethnic Crocodile Smile,” was formally launched in months. This briefing is therefore intended groups. This same dynamic also appears to late August in Delta state, following a to provide a background on the conflict be part of today’s conflict environment in ceasefire between the NDA and the trends in the state and among communities the Niger Delta. According to a report issued government. According to the Army High over the past two years as well as the by the United Nations Regional Centre for Command, “The core mandate of the current state of play as of September 2016. Peace and Disarmament in Africa, and operation is to provide adequate security reported in The Vanguard on August 2nd, for the residents and the strategic national 2016, of the estimated 500 million illicit economic assets of the nation in the small arms and light weapons believed to embattled region.” A few days later, the be in Africa, up to 70% may be in Nigeria. Army Chief of Staff went further to describe The report goes on to say that the heavy the military exercise as aimed at rooting out proliferation of weapons to Nigeria, mainly terrorists in the region who are sabotaging believed to be flowing south from conflicts Nigeria’s economic interests after the in Libya and Mali, have been fueled by NDGJM vowed to fight the operation in a SEPTEMBER 2016: DELT A STATE BRIEFING counter-campaign dubbed “Operation Ethnic/Communal Tensions and Violence, Delta State Crocodile Tears.” Additionally, in a January 2009 – June 2016 September 7th, 2016 letter published online in the popular Nigerian blog, Nairaland, 12 NDA spokesman Mudoch Agbinibo also Incidents Fatalities dismissed the operation and vowed that the 10 group would continue to resist in the form of amphibious warfare, with or without 8 active peace talks. 6 Meanwhile, the continued downturn in the global oil market, combined with the rise of 4 militant groups attacking pipelines and other infrastructure, has only added to the 2 high levels of insecurity already present in the state. Youth, in particular, from the Ijaw, 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Itsekiri, and Urhobo communities, are becoming increasingly agitated about Sources: ACLED and Nigeria Watch formatted on the P4P Peace Map www.p4p-nigerImo.org. perceived injustices. These injustices are often framed in terms of inequitable access to land and resources, including Reported Fatalities, Delta State employment opportunities, based on ethnic January 2010 – June 2016 extraction. As has happened in similar periods of unrest and ethnic polarization in 250250 the Niger Delta, including during the Warri Crisis, youth are particularly vulnerable to 200200 being co-opted into militant and criminal groups if they feel disenfranchised and 150150 aggrieved. According to data from the P4P Peace Map, 100100 one of the main indicators of insecurity in Delta state over the past several years has 5050 been communal conflict based on Group Grievance. The spike in Group Grievance 0 around elections is not unusual as 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 politicians and political parties often manipulate ethnic sentiment for political Sources: ACLED and Nigeria Watch formatted on the P4P Peace Map www.p4p-nigerImo.org. gains, as was seen in April and May 2015 in Delta state. However, according to the PIND IPDU Niger Delta Quarterly Conflict Tracker second quarter of 2016 (April-June), clashes and Ijaw communities also led to violence for Q2 of 2016, the risk of communal between rival youth groups over land, and fatalities. In the second half of 2016, it violence and group-based attacks appeared access to resources, and lack of political appears that these inter-communal to be rising again, and accounted for at least inclusion accounted for at least seven tensions are also affecting Ijaw-Itsekiri twelve deaths during this time period. Of deaths, as well as riots and shootings. This communities, which may be exacerbated by the incidents reported to the IPDU SMS is a continuing trend from the first quarter the rise in militancy and government platform and the P4P Peace Map in the of the year, when clashes between Urhobo military operations in the state. P I ND ND PI 2 THE FUND FOR PEACE SEPTEMBER 2016: DELT A STATE BRIEFING The Role of the Amnesty Programme Looming large over the current outbreak of Concentration of Violence in Delta State insecurity in Delta state, as well as other key December 2015 - April 2016 states in the Niger Delta, is the future of the Presidential Amnesty Programme. Started in 2009, the Amnesty Programme was intended to grant full pardons to all militants that turned in their weapons and ceased hostilities within a two-month period between August and October 2009. The Amnesty Programme also provided a monthly stipend of 65,000 Naira ($327) and offered trainings and educational opportunities in Nigeria and abroad to encourage former combatants to seek gainful employment and reintegration into society. By most accounts, the Amnesty Programme has been a success, with most former militants ceasing armed agitation against the government and international business interests. However, as it was only set to run through 2015, and is closely Heat Map: Concentration of conflict incidents between December 2015 and April 2016. associated with the administration of Source: P4P Map; Nigeria Watch and ACLED data. Data source: Nigeria Watch former President Goodluck Jonathan, last year’s Federal elections brought questions and uncertainties over the future of the revenues from resource distribution. Also, settled and regular payments would Programme and the fate of the many ex- in May of this year, the new federal budget resume, although whether the delay is militants currently on the payroll. signed by President Buhari cut funding to directly correlated with a rise in criminality the Amnesty Programme by approximately and attacks on national and international oil A complicating factor in the current 70%, according to an article and interview infrastructure is yet to be determined. environment, as noted in a June 15 with Boroh in the Financial Times on May 9. interview with the current coordinator of According to Boroh, the budget cuts would With the Amnesty Programme set to run the Amnesty Programme, Brig.-Gen. Paul remove approximately 13,000 former through 2018, albeit at a reduced rate, it is Boroh in The Vanguard, is the sometimes combatants who would not be paid in 2017, unclear as to whether its provisions would unclear line between militancy and although the programme was extended to extend to encompass the current militant criminality in the current conflict run through 2018. Following this groups now agitating in Delta state and the environment in the Niger Delta. According announcement, in June and July, wider Niger Delta. In addition, the to P4P Peace Map data, both militancy and accusations began to surface that the willingness of former militants currently criminality have elevated in Delta state, with government was late in paying former receiving payments under the programme armed robberies and other incidents of combatants as well as the stipends and to stay out of the fray in the current conflict general crime occurring alongside attacks
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