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Home , Delta State, Itsekiri people, The Guardian (Nigeria), The Nation (Nigeria), Warri North, Warri South

THE FUND FOR PEACE PARTNERSHIPS INITATIVE IN THE NIGER DELTA PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVE A Historical Flashpoint: Rising Tensions in

Briefing: September 2016

The current tensions in Delta state between unresolved conflicts in the North and the Niger Delta States, the Ijaw, Urhobo and Itsekiri communities Niger Delta regions. can be traced back to the late 1990s and early 2000s, during the period marked by Compounding and fueled by these conflict the Crisis. During that time, disputes drivers, a new wave of militancy has taken over land, natural resource revenues, and hold in Delta state, with groups like the political representation led to widespread (NDA) attacking and violence and the alleged deaths of blowing up pipelines and oil facilities in hundreds. A tenuous peace has held since , , and Warri South 2004, and although there were sporadic West LGAs in May and June of this year. In outbreaks of tension and violence between August, a new militant group associated the ethnic groups for the decade, with the Urhobo ethnic group, calling particularly in 2013, it was deescalated themselves the Niger Delta Greenland Delta before it reached a crisis point. As of early Justice Mandate (NDGJM), began attacking 2014, however, with the drop in global oil delivery pipelines and other commodity prices and mounting pressures infrastructure in Delta state. Various related to the economy, land ownership, attempts to mediate the issues between the The purpose of this briefing is to provide elections, and the future of the Presidential government and the militant groups has situational awareness to Peace Actors and Amnesty Programme, the risk is becoming seen limited success, with dialogue breaking other concerned parties about the rising more acute. down among communal groups as well as tensions between communal groups in between these groups and the government. Delta State. While incidents of violence Another key driver of the Warri Crisis in the late 1990s and early 2000s was the At the same time, a Nigerian government haven’t worsened as of mid-2016, there is a proliferation of small arms and light military operation, known as “Operation significant risk that they will in the coming weapons into the hands of opposing ethnic Crocodile Smile,” was formally launched in months. This briefing is therefore intended groups. This same dynamic also appears to late August in Delta state, following a to provide a background on the conflict be part of today’s conflict environment in ceasefire between the NDA and the trends in the state and among communities the Niger Delta. According to a report issued government. According to the Army High over the past two years as well as the by the United Nations Regional Centre for Command, “The core mandate of the current state of play as of September 2016. Peace and Disarmament in Africa, and operation is to provide adequate security reported in The on August 2nd, for the residents and the strategic national 2016, of the estimated 500 million illicit economic assets of in the small arms and light weapons believed to embattled region.” A few days later, the be in Africa, up to 70% may be in Nigeria. Army Chief of Staff went further to describe The report goes on to say that the heavy the military exercise as aimed at rooting out proliferation of weapons to Nigeria, mainly terrorists in the region who are sabotaging believed to be flowing south from conflicts Nigeria’s economic interests after the in Libya and Mali, have been fueled by NDGJM vowed to fight the operation in a SEPTEMBER 2016: DELT A STATE BRIEFING

counter-campaign dubbed “Operation Ethnic/Communal Tensions and Violence, Delta State Crocodile Tears.” Additionally, in a January 2009 – June 2016 September 7th, 2016 letter published online in the popular Nigerian blog, Nairaland, 12 NDA spokesman Mudoch Agbinibo also Incidents Fatalities dismissed the operation and vowed that the 10 group would continue to resist in the form of amphibious warfare, with or without 8 active peace talks. 6 Meanwhile, the continued downturn in the global oil market, combined with the rise of 4 militant groups attacking pipelines and other infrastructure, has only added to the 2 high levels of insecurity already present in the state. Youth, in particular, from the Ijaw, 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Itsekiri, and Urhobo communities, are becoming increasingly agitated about Sources: ACLED and Nigeria Watch formatted on the P4P Peace Map www.p4p-nigerImo.org. perceived injustices. These injustices are often framed in terms of inequitable access to land and resources, including Reported Fatalities, Delta State employment opportunities, based on ethnic January 2010 – June 2016 extraction. As has happened in similar periods of unrest and ethnic polarization in 250250 the Niger Delta, including during the Warri Crisis, youth are particularly vulnerable to 200200 being co-opted into militant and criminal groups if they feel disenfranchised and 150150 aggrieved.

According to data from the P4P Peace Map, 100100 one of the main indicators of insecurity in Delta state over the past several years has 5050 been communal conflict based on Group Grievance. The spike in Group Grievance 0 around elections is not unusual as 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 politicians and political parties often manipulate ethnic sentiment for political Sources: ACLED and Nigeria Watch formatted on the P4P Peace Map www.p4p-nigerImo.org. gains, as was seen in April and May 2015 in Delta state. However, according to the PIND IPDU Niger Delta Quarterly Conflict Tracker second quarter of 2016 (April-June), clashes and Ijaw communities also led to violence for Q2 of 2016, the risk of communal between rival youth groups over land, and fatalities. In the second half of 2016, it violence and group-based attacks appeared access to resources, and lack of political appears that these inter-communal to be rising again, and accounted for at least inclusion accounted for at least seven tensions are also affecting Ijaw-Itsekiri twelve deaths during this time period. Of deaths, as well as riots and shootings. This communities, which may be exacerbated by the incidents reported to the IPDU SMS is a continuing trend from the first quarter the rise in militancy and government platform and the P4P Peace Map in the of the year, when clashes between Urhobo military operations in the state.

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The Role of the Amnesty Programme

Looming large over the current outbreak of Concentration of Violence in Delta State insecurity in Delta state, as well as other key December 2015 - April 2016 states in the Niger Delta, is the future of the Presidential Amnesty Programme. Started in 2009, the Amnesty Programme was intended to grant full pardons to all militants that turned in their weapons and ceased hostilities within a two-month period between August and October 2009. The Amnesty Programme also provided a monthly stipend of 65,000 Naira ($327) and offered trainings and educational opportunities in Nigeria and abroad to encourage former combatants to seek gainful employment and reintegration into society. By most accounts, the Amnesty Programme has been a success, with most former militants ceasing armed agitation against the government and international business interests. However, as it was only set to run through 2015, and is closely Heat Map: Concentration of conflict incidents between December 2015 and April 2016. associated with the administration of Source: P4P Map; Nigeria Watch and ACLED data. Data source: Nigeria Watch former President , last year’s Federal elections brought questions and uncertainties over the future of the revenues from resource distribution. Also, settled and regular payments would Programme and the fate of the many ex- in May of this year, the new federal budget resume, although whether the delay is militants currently on the payroll. signed by President Buhari cut funding to directly correlated with a rise in criminality the Amnesty Programme by approximately and attacks on national and international oil A complicating factor in the current 70%, according to an article and interview infrastructure is yet to be determined. environment, as noted in a June 15 with Boroh in the Financial Times on May 9. interview with the current coordinator of According to Boroh, the budget cuts would With the Amnesty Programme set to run the Amnesty Programme, Brig.-Gen. Paul remove approximately 13,000 former through 2018, albeit at a reduced rate, it is Boroh in The Vanguard, is the sometimes combatants who would not be paid in 2017, unclear as to whether its provisions would unclear line between militancy and although the programme was extended to extend to encompass the current militant criminality in the current conflict run through 2018. Following this groups now agitating in Delta state and the environment in the Niger Delta. According announcement, in June and July, wider Niger Delta. In addition, the to P4P Peace Map data, both militancy and accusations began to surface that the willingness of former militants currently criminality have elevated in Delta state, with government was late in paying former receiving payments under the programme armed robberies and other incidents of combatants as well as the stipends and to stay out of the fray in the current conflict general crime occurring alongside attacks school fees for students currently studying environment is becoming increasingly on infrastructure and national and abroad under provisions of the Amnesty questionable. international oil interests by militant groups Programme. As of August, the government agitating for renewed negotiations on claimed that all back payments had been

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Inter-and Intra-Communal Tensions and the Militancy

In this general environment of increasing At the intra-communal level, there Given these statements and the prevailing insecurity and militancy, inter- and intra- simultaneously appears to be a fracturing environment of distrust among parties, the communal cleavages are becoming more among Itsekiri leaders. In a separate article military operation, “Crocodile Smile,” is pronounced. For example, following a published in The Vanguard on September being met with skepticism if not outright stakeholder’s meeting between the Federal 1st, 2016, Itsekiri lawmaker and member of hostility on the part of many stakeholders Government and a group of leaders from the House of Representatives, Daniel who feel that the deployment of military the Niger Delta in late August on a ceasefire Reyenieju, warned all parties against assets to the region will only exacerbate and plan for the cessation of hostilities, divisionary tactics meant to sow discord current tensions. According to a September conflicting statements emerged almost among and between groups. He went on to 2nd, 2016 article in titled immediately disavowing both the process affirm that the representation of Itsekiri “Fear of War Grips Niger Delta as Military and the . These statements, leaders at the dialogue was legitimate and Deploys Weapons,” the Ijaw Youths Council which were published in a series of articles adequate. Almost immediately, his (IYC) as well as the Ijaw monarch of Seimbiri in The Vanguard on September 1st and 2nd, statement was refuted in a September 2nd Kingdom, Pere Charles E. Ayemi-Botu, came first from the Warri Study Group Vanguard article where the Olu of Warri, the warned that the operation was likely to (WSG), an Itsekiri organization in Delta state. traditional monarch, stated that the current cause further chaos in the region, as well as In a September 1st Vanguard article, the Itsekiri representatives to the talks did not undermine peace talks among all parties. WSG stated that it had no confidence in Ijaw reflect the interests of the wider Itsekiri Chief, Edwin Clark, to represent the community in Delta state. In a statement by When considering the existing conflict interests of the Itsekiri in any dialogue or the Palace Administration, the Olu was dynamics occurring between communities peace talks with the Federal Government. quoted as saying: “The Palace states in Delta state over land ownership and The same article also noted that the Urhobo categorically that while individuals are access, resource distribution, and political Youth Leaders Association (UYLA) had entitled to freedom of speech and representation at both the community level disassociated itself from the process, association, as guaranteed by the Nigeria and within the context of a dialogue meant claiming that it was being driven by an Ijaw Constitution, it has not authorized or to resolve the ongoing militancy, the need agenda that did not take into account the mandated any person to represent either for vigilance is clear. As was seen in the interests of other ethnic communities in the Olu of Warri or at these Warri Crisis that spanned nearly seven years Delta state. The UYLA went further to say meetings. Consequently, those persons who and was characterized by outbreaks of that the continued attacks by the NDGJM on attended these meetings cannot arrogate to violence and deep polarization between and oil pipelines underscored its unwillingness themselves the authority to speak or among communal groups, as well as to participate in a dialogue headed by represent either the Olu of Warri or the between the federal government and local individuals who were not representative of Itsekiri people.” stakeholders, the current prevailing Urhobo interests. conditions in Delta state are amenable to conflict resolution efforts.

Conclusion

Overall, both quantitative and qualitative With the militancy now appearing to take on unchecked and unresolved conflict drivers information points to the fact that ethnicity a deepening ethnic dimension, the situation in Delta State can ignite. However, the and group-based tensions have been a key is one that calls for deep concern amongst resolution of the Warri Crisis may also driver of violent conflict in Delta State in the peace actors and the international provide something of a blueprint, in the role past decade and half, ignited on and off community alike and requires taking a that civil society, traditional rulers, and over a period of time but never truly being proactive role to reduce the ethnic rhetoric government played to navigate the resolved. When mixed with the current as a means of preventing further escalation turbulence and deescalate tensions. We armed militancy and attacks against oil of tensions in the state. If anything, the only hope that this time they act before infrastructure in the region, the result is a Warri Crisis of the late 1990s and early matters get out of hand. situation that could potentially undermine 2000s should stand out as a stark reminder the relative stability of the entire region. of how very fast, and very destructively,

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