Niger Delta Quarterly Conflict Trends April to June 2016 Sustainable peace and security remains a state and Local Government Area (LGA) Contents key challenge in the Niger Delta region. levels. Data sources include ACLED Recent trends in violence have shown (www.acleddata.com), Nigeria Watch Context and Risk Profile 1 significant rise in conflict incidents and (www.nigeriawatch.org), NSRP Sources (focused on Regional Patterns and Trends 2 violent fatalities since February 2015. violence against women and girls), as well as According to data formatted from the Peace the IPDU SMS early warning system, and State-level Patterns and Trends Map, in April-June 2016 (Q2), the number of others. Abia 3 fatalities is at the highest point since the Akwa Ibom 4 end of the 2009 militancy. To ensure that these trackers are Bayelsa 5 comprehensive, please contribute your Cross River 6 The conflict landscape in the Niger Delta is knowledge by reporting any verified Delta 7 layered and complex, involving communal incident of conflict to the IPDU Early Edo 8 tensions, political competition, organized Warning System by texting a message to Imo 9 criminality, and resource-based conflicts; 080 9936 2222. Kindly include the relevant Ondo 10 exemplified by militancy, piracy, cultism, state, LGA, town, date, and brief description Rivers 11 election violence, armed robbery, of the incident. To read the latest monthly About Us and Contact Us 12 kidnapping, and land disputes varying at tracker, please visit: www.p4p-nigerdelta.org Context and Risk Profile This quarterly tracker looks at the trends information to inform that process of and dialects (Source: www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/ and patterns of conflict risk factors and analysis and joint planning to promote files/AFR_110929_Niger%20Delta_0113.pdf). incidents of violence, and their pressures on sustainable peace in the Niger Delta. peace and stability in the Niger Delta. It is Fishing and farming are historically the main not designed as a conflict analysis, but The Niger Delta comprises 185 out of the occupations in the region. The region rather, it is intended to update stakeholders 774 local government areas, and covers 9 contains vast reserves of oil and gas, which on patterns and trends in conflict risk and out of the 36 states of Nigeria namely; Abia, play an important role in the Nigerian violence. Understanding the deeper conflict Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, economy and global energy security. In drivers, implications, and mitigating options Imo, Ondo and Rivers. With over 30 million spite of these abundant natural resources, requires a robust participatory, qualitative people (according to a 2006 population the Niger Delta is marked by poverty, analysis of these trends by local census) and an estimated population economic underdevelopment, inequality, stakeholders in affected communities, density of 265 people per square kilometer, and environmental degradation. Historical including women, traditional authorities, the region accounts for more than 23 grievances and a proliferation of armed political leaders, youths, private sector percent of Nigeria’s population. The region groups (militant, criminal, and ethno- actors, and others. We hope that these is highly heterogeneous with over 40 ethnic sectarian) contribute to many of the conflict trackers provide such stakeholders with groups who speak more than 100 languages dynamics described in the following pages. NIGER DELTA QUARTERLY CONFLICT TRENDS: APRIL — J U N E 2 0 1 6 Regional Patterns and Trends in Conflict Risk — April to June 2016 Conflict risk and violence in the Niger Delta reached its highest level in 2016 Q2 since late 2009. During this quarter, the security situation in the region deteriorated considerably with increasing incidents of conflict fatalities, including political violence, protests, land disputes and communal conflict, criminality, and gang violence. There was rise in attacks on oil and gas infrastructure by new militant groups such as the Niger Delta Avengers, particularly in Bayelsa and Delta states. There was also a significant rise in cult-related violence and criminality across the nine states, partly due to ongoing clashes between the Icelanders and Greenlanders which caused dozens of deaths in Q2. Overall, the state has seen progressively worsening in both reported violent incidents and subsequent fatalities, despite mixed progress by the state. Abia, cult and political violence and criminality. separate attacks on oil pipelines and energy Akwa Ibom, Ondo, and Rivers all had The second most violent was Delta, with infrastructure. In Yenagoa, violent incidents declining levels of violence this quarter, fatalities associated with militancy and related to militant attacks on pipelines, while the rest of the states experienced communal violence. In Bayelsa, there was a violent crime, and cult-related and increased levels of violence. Imo had the rise in criminal violence, as well as incidents communal violence. largest increase in conflict incidents, and and fatalities related to militancy and piracy. Other regional trends in conflict across Cross River had the biggest jump in states in Q2 include the pro-Biafran cause fatalities, the highest for the state since The most violent LGAs per capita were with protests reported in several states to 2012. Emuoha and Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni (Rivers) mark the movement’s 49th Anniversary; as followed by Yakurr (Cross River), and well as ongoing inter-communal land Rivers was the most violent state in the Nembe (Bayelsa). In Warri South, there were disputes between pastoralists and farmers. region this quarter with a significant rise in numerous fatalities by mobs and five Incidents and Fatalities, Niger Delta Conflict Fatalities, State Level Conflict Fatalities, LGA Level Quarterly, 2016 Per Capita, 2016 (Apr-June) Per Capita, 2016 (Apr-June) 500 0.004 0.03 0.0035 0.025 400 0.003 Worse 0.02 0.0025 Worse 300 0.002 0.015 200 0.0015 0.01 0.001 Better Better 100 0.005 0.0005 0 0 Bayelsa Rivers Delta River Cross Edo Imo Ondo Abia Akwa Ibom Ohaji/Egbema Emuoha Ogba/Egbema Yakurr Nembe South Warri Gokana Ughelli North Mun. Calabar 0 Yenagoa 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Incidents Fatalities Data for map and bar charts from ACLED and Nigeria Watch formatted and integrated on P4P Peace Map www.p4p-nigerdelta.org PARTNERS FOR PEACE | FOUNDATION FO R PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVES IN THE NIGER DELTA | THE FUND FOR PEACE 2 NIGER DELTA QUARTERLY CONFLICT TRENDS: APRIL — J U N E 2 0 1 6 Regional Patterns and Trends in Conflict Risk — Abia State The second quarter of 2016 saw a drop in within the Ohafia, Akanu, and Okun Political Protests violence in Abia state, following the spike of communities. conflict incidents and fatalities in January In May, over 5,000 members IPOB reported- and February 2016. On a per capita basis, In May, two Igbo butchers in Aba were killed ly took to the streets in Aba South to conflict risk and violence were most in a clash with soldiers over a dispute with a advocate for recognition of a Biafran state. prevalent in Aba South LGA. Incidents trader. This event triggered a mass protest In the same month, Movement for the reported in 2016 Q2 included ethno- in June, with protesters marching towards a Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra sectarian tensions, violent criminality and Mosque and Hausa settlement area in Aba (MASSOB) staged a protest in Umuahia reported fatalities involving publics security South before being dispersed. North, which resulted in one man being forces and protesters. shot by police and 19 arrests. Violent Criminality In June , protesters staged a demonstration Communal Tension and Violence in Umuahia North following the June 28th In April, soldiers reportedly killed two Federal High Court decision to annul the In April 2016, five Hausa-Fulani commercial kidnappers and rescued two victims in 2015 election of Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, motorcyclists were reportedly kidnapped Osisioma Ngwa, while in Bende police killed based on tax evasion charges. and murdered by alleged members of the one armed robber and captured another Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in during a shoot out. In June, a kidnap kingpin Isuikwato. In May, an inter-communal clash was shot dead during a robbery by a police between Hausa and Igbo traders left at least ambush. three dead. There is increasing tension Incidents and Fatalities, Abia State LGA Level Fatalities, Abia State Quarterly Trends Per Capita, 2016 (Apr-June) 35 Communal/Ethnic Conflict Other Violence 30 25 20 Worse 15 10 Better 5 Isuikwuato Aba North Ngwa Osisioma Aba South 0 Bende 2015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42016 Q12016 Q2 Incidents Fatalities Data for map and bar charts from ACLED and Nigeria Watch formatted and integrated on P4P Peace Map www.p4p-nigerdelta.org PARTNERS FOR PEACE | FOUNDATION FO R PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVES IN THE NIGER DELTA | THE FUND FOR PEACE 3 NIGER DELTA QUARTERLY CONFLICT TRENDS: APRIL — J U N E 2 0 1 6 Regional Patterns and Trends in Conflict Risk — Akwa Ibom State Akwa Ibom was the least violent state in the Violent Criminality Protests Niger Delta during Q2 2016, based on reported incidents of conflict risk. Reported In April, it was reported that a 14-year old In April, ex-militants reportedly barricaded conflict-related fatalities within the state boy was killed in a cult-related incident in the entrance to the state governor’s office decreased significantly in Q2 compared to Uyo. The female head of the Pathology over issues related to the Presidential the previous quarter, though the number of Department at a hospital was killed by a Amnesty Program. In May, youth from the reported incidents remained at a similar gang at her home in Uyo in April. A truck Ibeno community reportedly protested at level. Uyo LGA had the highest levels of driver was reportedly shot dead by a the office of an oil company in Uyo over an violence in the state during the period.