Appendix S2 Detailed Results from Species Distribution Models

Appendix S2 Detailed results from species distribution models.

Considering test data for models with climatic or geographic variables, respectively, three and one species (1.7 and 0.6%) had AUC values lower than 0.5, while 52 and 68 species (29.2 and 38.2%) had AUC values lower than 0.7 (Table S2.1). Comparing taxonomic groups, for models with climatic or geographic variables respectively, only three and one arthropods species (4.5 and 1.5%) had AUC values lower than 0.5 (for models considering climatic variables – Crotchiella brachyptera, Drouetius borgesi centralis, Megaselia leptofemur – and geographic variables – Orchestia chevreuxi – respectively). For climatic predictors, the highest number of AUC values lower than 0.7 was in arthropod species (19 species – 28.8%) while for geographic predictors it was in vascular plants (26 species, 53.1%).

Table S2.1 Number of species with AUC values lower than 0.7 and/or lower than 0.5 (values in brackets are the corresponding percentages). Test Data Climatic predictors Geographic predictors n total n AUC < 0.5 n AUC < 0.7 n AUC < 0.5 n AUC < 0.7 Bryophytes 50 0 (0.0%) 15 (30.0%) 0 (0.0%) 14 (28.0%) Vascular plants 49 0 (0.0%) 15 (30.6%) 0 (0.0%) 26 (53.1%) Molluscs 13 0 (0.0%) 3 (23.1%) 0 (0.0%) 8 (61.5%) Arthropods 66 3 (4.5%) 19 (28.8%) 1 (1.5%) 20 (30.3%) Total 178 3 (1.7%) 52 (29.2%) 1 (0.6%) 68 (38.2%)

Table S2.2 Species included in the SDMs analyses, number of samples (n) of each data set used for modelling, AUC values of training (Tr) and test (Te) data, and selection or rejection of species for subsequent analysis (see section 2.3 for details). AUC values lower than 0.5 and/or 0.7 are shaded in gray; AzE: Azorean endemism; CS: conservation status (bryophytes conservation status was based on the Azorean Biodiversity Portal – http://www.azoresbioportal.angra.uac.pt/). Modelling results with Modelling results with climatic variables geographic variables AzE CS Comments AUC n Tr/Te AUC Tr n Tr/Te AUC Tr AUC Te Te Bryophytes

Acanthocoleus aberrans No R 16/4 0.946 0.987 16/4 0.883 0.766

Acrobolbus wilsonii No V 94/23 0.928 0.905 48/11 0.870 0.878

Alophosia azorica No R 287/71 0.682 0.683 133/33 0.837 0.763

Andoa berthelotiana No R 848/212 0.612 0.570 655/163 0.633 0.650

Anthoceros caucasicus No R 117/29 0.824 0.738 98/24 0.791 0.769

Aphanolejeunea azorica No V 159/39 0.811 0.771 158/39 0.737 0.686

A. madeirensis No R 67/16 0.930 0.900 67/16 0.826 0.773

A. sintenisii No V 312/77 0.744 0.728 289/72 0.748 0.750

Asterella africana No V 63/15 0.792 0.699 9/2 0.799 0.526

Bazzania azorica Yes R 301/75 0.818 0.854 260/64 0.796 0.756

Breutelia azorica Yes R 176/44 0.848 0.829 125/31 0.823 0.817

No R 32/8 0.884 0.869 32/8 0.827 0.878

Modelling results with Modelling results with climatic variables geographic variables AzE CS Comments AUC n Tr/Te AUC Tr n Tr/Te AUC Tr AUC Te Te Bryoerythrophyllum inaequalifolium Calypogeia azorica No R 93/23 0.895 0.839 87/21 0.845 0.853

Campylopus shawii No R 107/26 0.871 0.902 60/15 0.905 0.883

Cephalozia crassifolia No V 267/66 0.800 0.795 203/50 0.792 0.792

Cheilolejeunea Yes V 84/21 0.936 0.954 70/17 0.916 0.908 cedercreutzii Colura calyptrifolia No RT 379/94 0.793 0.794 301/75 0.786 0.757

Cyclodictyon laetevirens No R 164/41 0.842 0.837 142/35 0.853 0.856

Daltonia stenophylla No V 133/33 0.914 0.926 133/33 0.879 0.914

Dumortiera hirsuta No R 427/106 0.690 0.661 200/50 0.774 0.726

Echinodium renauldii Yes V 135/33 0.843 0.866 47/11 0.757 0.767

Fissidens asplenioides No R 482/120 0.625 0.618 299/74 0.696 0.612

F. monguillonii No R Lack of data Excluded Final map with F. sublineaefolius No R Lack of data for SDM occurrence points Grimmia lisae No R 431/107 0.686 0.686 225/56 0.731 0.728

Herbertus sendtneri Yes R 217/54 0.855 0.844 168/42 0.813 0.766

Heterocladium wulfsbergii No T Lack of data Excluded Heteroscyphus No R 292/72 0.764 0.764 48/12 0.820 0.745 denticulatus Hypnum uncinulatum No RT 552/137 0.699 0.668 414/103 0.706 0.720

Isopterygium tenerum No E 52/12 0.849 0.727 52/12 0.834 0.740

Synonym: Isothecium prolixum No R 489/122 0.724 0.708 328/82 0.734 0.748 Echinodium prolixum Lejeunea eckloniana No R 253/63 0.739 0.744 122/30 0.795 0.688

L. flava subsp. moorei No R 213/53 0.759 0.787 133/33 0.723 0.687

L. hibernica No R 144/36 0.840 0.804 49/12 0.939 0.848

Leptoscyphus azoricus No V 64/16 0.935 0.905 52/12 0.925 0.917

Microcampylopus No R Lack of data Excluded laevigatus Mnioloma fuscum No R 159/39 0.855 0.849 103/25 0.908 0.836

Neckera intermedia No RT 318/79 0.695 0.683 170/42 0.724 0.618

Pallavicinia lyellii No V 158/39 0.869 0.846 100/25 0.844 0.837

Plagiochila longispina No V 92/22 0.859 0.852 68/16 0.910 0.881

Porella canariensis No T 362/90 0.699 0.645 300/75 0.647 0.663

Pseudotaxiphyllum No R 160/39 0.868 0.824 112/28 0.886 0.849 laetevirens Ptychomitrium nigrescens No RT 353/88 0.693 0.599 173/43 0.682 0.694

Radula carringtonii No R 535/133 0.666 0.656 395/98 0.665 0.663

R. holtii No R 152/38 0.821 0.745 151/37 0.744 0.705

R. nudicaulis No R 64/15 0.940 0.880 54/13 0.895 0.912

R. wichurae No V 221/55 0.712 0.621 127/31 0.714 0.627

Rhamphidium purpuratum No V 169/42 0.755 0.705 116/29 0.826 0.812

Telaranea azorica No V 212/53 0.870 0.845 203/50 0.809 0.760

T. europaea No R 324/80 0.781 0.763 273/68 0.799 0.798

Tetrastichium fontanum No R 496/123 0.658 0.623 268/67 0.679 0.643

T. virens No R 310/77 0.667 0.554 181/45 0.727 0.689

Synonym: Thamnobryum alopecurum No R 286/71 0.714 0.694 248/61 0.719 0.649 Thamnobryum maderense Tylimanthus laxus Yes V 196/49 0.865 0.843 143/35 0.825 0.853

Vascular plants

Agrostis azorica Yes 10/2 0.831 0.951 10/2 0.765 0.969

Yes Lack of data Excluded

Modelling results with Modelling results with climatic variables geographic variables AzE CS Comments AUC n Tr/Te AUC Tr n Tr/Te AUC Tr AUC Te Te A. congestiflora subsp. congestiflora Final map with A. congestiflora subsp. Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence oreophila points A. gracililaxa Yes 145/36 0.833 0.789 144/36 0.822 0.684

Ammi seubertianum Yes Lack of data Excluded

Synonym: A. trifoliatum Yes 65/16 0.877 0.855 65/16 0.866 0.776 Ammi hunti Angelica lignescens Yes 58/14 0.923 0.906 58/14 0.850 0.802

Final map with Arceuthobium azoricum Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points Azorina vidalii Yes 139/34 0.868 0.866 136/34 0.867 0.841

Begonia grandis Yes Lack of data Excluded

B. herbacea Yes Lack of data Excluded

Bellis azorica Yes 81/20 0.845 0.825 81/20 0.825 0.745

Cardamine caldeirarum Yes 416/103 0.765 0.727 416/103 0.683 0.698

Carex hochstetteriana Yes 613/153 0.697 0.720 548/137 0.682 0.652

C. pilulifera subsp. azorica Yes Lack of data for SDM Excluded

C. vulcani Yes 726/181 0.733 0.752 695/173 0.650 0.626

Chaerophyllum azoricum Yes 33/8 0.914 0.820 32/7 0.873 0.885

Corema album subsp. Yes 24/5 0.890 0.858 23/5 0.912 0.714 azoricum Daboecia azorica Yes 177/44 0.844 0.811 177/44 0.795 0.796

Daucus carota subsp. 1426/35 Yes 1433/358 0.601 0.608 0.592 0.590 azoricus 6 Deschampsia foliosa Yes 700/175 0.746 0.759 700/175 0.671 0.656

Dryopteris azorica Yes 782/195 0.709 0.706 782/195 0.658 0.648

D. crispifolia Yes 119/29 0.847 0.824 119/29 0.809 0.819

2301/57 Erica azorica Yes 2308/576 0.551 0.569 0.539 0.529 5 Euphorbia azorica Yes 622/155 0.716 0.718 416/104 0.776 0.776

E. stygiana stygiana Yes 212/53 0.863 0.870 67/16 0.882 0.878

Final map with Euphrasia grandiflora Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points Festuca francoi Yes 821/205 0.723 0.717 820/205 0.661 0.667

F. petraea Yes 766/191 0.695 0.652 734/183 0.715 0.717

Frangula azorica Yes 879/219 0.705 0.677 643/160 0.661 0.668

Gaudinia coarctata Yes Lack of data Excluded

1693/42 Hedera azorica Yes 1696/423 0.585 0.570 0.557 0.567 3 Holcus azoricus Yes 140/35 0.800 0.802 140/35 0.744 0.658

1488/37 H. rigidus Yes 1492/372 0.613 0.614 0.581 0.559 2 Hypericum foliosum Yes 1519/379 0.596 0.614 818/204 0.601 0.607

Ilex perado subsp. azorica Yes 1313/328 0.639 0.627 969/242 0.645 0.640

1004/25 Juniperus brevifolia Yes 1007/251 0.660 0.646 0.622 0.621 0 Lactuca watsoniana Yes 89/22 0.934 0.917 89/22 0.883 0.803

1321/33 Laurus azorica Yes 1325/331 0.577 0.577 0.577 0.546 0 Leontodon filii Yes 102/25 0.896 0.876 102/25 0.862 0.836

L. rigens Yes 64/15 0.915 0.937 64/15 0.905 0.918

Lotus azoricus Yes 76/18 0.862 0.817 76/18 0.852 0.771

Luzula purpureosplendens Yes 953/238 0.685 0.669 953/238 0.647 0.649

1349/33 Lysimachia azorica Yes 1351/337 0.630 0.618 0.596 0.594 7

Modelling results with Modelling results with climatic variables geographic variables AzE CS Comments AUC n Tr/Te AUC Tr n Tr/Te AUC Tr AUC Te Te Myosotis azorica Yes Lack of data Excluded

M. maritima Yes 95/23 0.872 0.852 88/22 0.870 0.885

Pericallis malvifolia subsp. Yes 342/85 0.719 0.736 316/79 0.702 0.685 malvifolia Picconia azorica Yes 978/244 0.652 0.660 974/243 0.612 0.610

Final map with Platanthera azorica Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points Final map with P. micrantha Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points Polypodium azoricum Yes 685/171 0.622 0.640 680/170 0.589 0.561

Prunus azorica Yes 61/15 0.853 0.861 61/15 0.724 0.798

Rubus hochstetterorum Yes 608/152 0.756 0.744 607/151 0.656 0.634

Rumex azoricus Yes Lack of data Excluded

Sanicula azorica Yes 75/18 0.904 0.847 75/18 0.793 0.778

Scabiosa nitens Yes 286/71 0.792 0.779 284/71 0.771 0.750

Silene uniflora subsp. Yes 8/1 0.996 1.000 8/1 0.993 0.994 cratericola Smilax azorica Yes 156/39 0.814 0.754 128/31 0.755 0.640

Spergularia azorica Yes 146/36 0.819 0.797 145/36 0.835 0.828

Tolpis azorica Yes 534/133 0.755 0.739 534/133 0.721 0.717

1350/33 Vaccinium cylindraceum Yes 1351/337 0.631 0.633 0.597 0.565 7 Viburnum treleasei Yes 713/178 0.731 0.753 711/177 0.661 0.626

Molluscs

Acanthinula azorica Yes 118/29 0.840 0.795 64/15 0.740 0.813

Azorivitrina brumalis Yes 257/64 0.724 0.725 228/56 0.711 0.692

Lauria fasciolata Yes 509/127 0.653 0.641 364/91 0.647 0.592

Leiostyla fuscidula Yes 193/48 0.692 0.720 193/48 0.699 0.573

L. rugulosa Yes 83/20 0.821 0.828 64/16 0.761 0.799

Leptaxis drouetiana Yes 27/6 0.918 0.900 9/2 0.826 0.837

Moreletina horripila Yes Lack of data Excluded

M. vespertina Yes 135/33 0.860 0.903 36/8 0.811 0.764

Napaeus delibutus Yes 47/11 0.826 0.815 47/11 0.734 0.590

N. forbesianus Yes 52/13 0.915 0.911 12/2 0.775 0.831

Oxychilus minor Yes 40/10 0.794 0.866 40/10 0.748 0.644

Plutonia atlantica Yes 218/54 0.756 0.691 184/45 0.707 0.654

Punctum azoricum Yes 91/22 0.822 0.677 90/22 0.744 0.660

Spermodea monas Yes 73/18 0.849 0.868 45/11 0.727 0.698

Zonitoides azoricus Yes Lack of data Excluded

Arthropods

Acorigone acoreensis Yes 51/12 0.902 0.899 51/12 0.923 0.889

Agabus godmani Yes Lack of data Excluded

Alestrus dolosus Yes 39/9 0.903 0.872 39/9 0.894 0.912

Aphrodes hamiltoni Yes 81/20 0.880 0.858 81/20 0.878 0.883

Aphrosylus calcarator Yes Lack of data Excluded

Argyresthia atlanticella Yes 372/92 0.665 0.623 362/90 0.691 0.674

A. minusculella Yes Lack of data Excluded

Ascotis fortunata azorica Yes 347/86 0.661 0.651 339/84 0.649 0.686

Atlantocis gillerforsi Yes 36/9 0.815 0.895 36/9 0.754 0.654

Final map with Bembidion schmidti Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence mequignoni points Brachmia infuscatella Yes 42/10 0.833 0.833 11/2 0.799 0.986

Modelling results with Modelling results with climatic variables geographic variables AzE CS Comments AUC n Tr/Te AUC Tr n Tr/Te AUC Tr AUC Te Te Brachypogon griseipennis Yes Lack of data Excluded

Final map with Calacalles droueti Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points C. subcarinatus Yes 104/26 0.775 0.689 104/26 0.754 0.627

Calathus extensicollis Yes Lack of data Excluded

Canariphantes acoreensis Yes 15/3 0.968 0.988 15/3 0.912 0.995

Final map with Cedrorum azoricus Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence caveirensis points Cerodontha bistrigata Yes Lack of data Excluded

Final map with Chaetophiloscia guernei Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points Chironomus annularius Yes 8/1 0.871 0.920 8/1 0.768 0.953

Chrysotus elongatus Yes Lack of data Excluded

C. polychaetus Yes Lack of data Excluded

C. vulcanicola Yes Lack of data Excluded

C. xanthoprasinus Yes Lack of data Excluded

Final map with Cixius azopicavus Yes Cave species occurrence

points Final map with C. azopifajo azopifajo Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points C. azoricus azoropicoi Yes 44/11 0.963 0.934 44/11 0.882 0.778

Coenosia testacea azorica Yes Lack of data Excluded

Conocephalus chavesi Yes 64/16 0.885 0.854 40/9 0.913 0.855

Final map with Crotchiella brachyptera Yes 9/2 0.535 0.442 9/2 0.745 0.751 occurrence

points Culiseta atlantica Yes Lack of data Excluded

Cyclophora azorensis Yes 356/88 0.691 0.614 281/70 0.677 0.718

Final map with Drouetius borgesi centralis Yes 11/2 0.606 0.222 10/2 0.752 0.563 occurrence

points Elipsocus azoricus Yes 130/32 0.768 0.610 116/28 0.798 0.763

E. brincki Yes 140/35 0.765 0.701 112/27 0.740 0.741

Emblyna acoreensis Yes 154/38 0.791 0.708 153/38 0.702 0.742

Encarsia estrellae Yes 24/6 0.950 0.922 24/6 0.931 0.979

Ensina azorica Yes Lack of data Excluded

Eucyclops agiloides Yes Lack of data Excluded azorensis Eudonia interlinealis Yes 270/67 0.714 0.668 181/45 0.714 0.550

E. luteusalis Yes 109/27 0.869 0.844 77/19 0.844 0.935

E. melanographa Yes 112/28 0.830 0.764 80/19 0.806 0.699

Eukiefferiella gracei Yes Lack of data Excluded

Eupteryx azorica Yes 82/20 0.795 0.725 13/3 0.827 0.712

Gibbaranea occidentalis Yes 228/57 0.719 0.648 213/53 0.735 0.699

Graphania granti Yes 31/7 0.903 0.843 16/3 0.944 0.903

Hemerobius azoricus Yes 116/28 0.779 0.777 92/22 0.789 0.684

Hermanniella incondita Yes Lack of data Excluded

Heteroderes azoricus Yes Lack of data Excluded

Hipparchia azorina azorina Yes 224/55 0.845 0.828 133/33 0.846 0.804

Final map with Homoeosoma picoensis Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points Hyadina agostinhoi Yes Lack of data Excluded

Hydroporus guernei Yes 90/22 0.830 0.805 20/4 0.937 0.853

Modelling results with Modelling results with climatic variables geographic variables AzE CS Comments AUC n Tr/Te AUC Tr n Tr/Te AUC Tr AUC Te Te Lasaeola oceanica Yes 108/26 0.791 0.809 107/26 0.738 0.716

Liacarus angustatus Yes 32/8 0.775 0.708 32/8 0.799 0.774

Limnephilus atlanticus Yes 48/12 0.933 0.922 28/7 0.956 0.912

Lithobius melanops borgei Yes 10/2 0.950 0.969 10/2 0.956 0.936

Final map with L. obscurus azoreae Yes Cave species occurrence

points Macrocera azorica Yes Lack of data Excluded

Final map with Megaselia leptofemur Yes 9/2 0.703 0.330 9/2 0.826 0.728 occurrence

points Meloboris longicauda Yes Lack of data Excluded

Mesapamea storai Yes 235/58 0.722 0.696 235/58 0.686 0.636

Micrurapteryx bistrigella Yes Lack of data Excluded

Minicia floresensis Yes 42/10 0.923 0.913 42/10 0.921 0.902

Neomariania oecophorella Yes 38/9 0.928 0.846 12/3 0.833 0.645

N. scriptella Yes 14/3 0.812 0.833 14/3 0.841 0.647

Neon acoreensis Yes 64/15 0.766 0.676 64/15 0.831 0.755

Noctua atlantica Yes 303/75 0.627 0.628 270/67 0.649 0.619

N. carvalhoi Yes 71/17 0.792 0.725 71/17 0.700 0.743

Orchestia chevreuxi Yes 84/21 0.776 0.818 5/1 0.917 0.407

Parapetrobius azoricus Yes Lack of data Excluded

Pardosa acorensis Yes 401/100 0.645 0.580 192/47 0.715 0.714

Phloeosinus gillerforsi Yes 18/4 0.843 0.664 18/4 0.925 0.854

Phloeostiba azorica Yes 23/5 0.866 0.712 23/5 0.880 0.824

Phlogophora cabrali Yes 88/21 0.765 0.698 88/21 0.735 0.590

P. furnasi Yes Lack of data Excluded

P. interrupta Yes 242/60 0.725 0.715 203/50 0.710 0.719

Pieris brassicae azorensis Yes 844/210 0.646 0.636 779/194 0.626 0.636

Pinalitus oromii Yes 100/25 0.860 0.964 85/21 0.865 0.806

Pisaura acoreensis Yes 134/33 0.846 0.834 113/28 0.900 0.869

Porrhomma borgesi Yes 26/6 0.957 0.935 26/6 0.933 0.941

Final map with Pseudanchomenus Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence aptinoides points Pseudechinosoma Yes 41/10 0.848 0.832 25/6 0.809 0.965 nodosum Final map with Pseudoblothrus vulcanus Yes Cave species occurrence

points Pseudosinella Yes 16/4 0.817 0.820 16/4 0.749 0.765 ashmoleorum Final map with P. azorica Yes 11/2 0.725 0.620 11/2 0.685 0.547 occurrence

points Rugathodes acoreensis Yes 136/33 0.826 0.796 136/33 0.818 0.689

Final map with R. pico Yes Cave species occurrence

points Sancus acoreensis Yes 104/25 0.887 0.894 104/25 0.842 0.807

Savigniorrhipis acoreensis Yes 139/34 0.839 0.846 138/34 0.856 0.764

Scaptomyza impunctata Yes Lack of data Excluded

Schoenomyza litorella Yes Lack of data Excluded major Sciapus glaucescens brioni Yes Lack of data Excluded

Scoparia aequipennalis Yes 345/86 0.672 0.718 243/60 0.698 0.686

S. carvalhoi Yes 20/5 0.786 0.815 20/5 0.831 0.913

S. coecimaculalis Yes 188/46 0.815 0.801 155/38 0.750 0.791

Modelling results with Modelling results with climatic variables geographic variables AzE CS Comments AUC n Tr/Te AUC Tr n Tr/Te AUC Tr AUC Te Te S. semiamplalis Yes 133/33 0.805 0.765 112/27 0.766 0.748

Sphaerophoria nigra Yes Lack of data Excluded

Strophingia harteni Yes 92/23 0.784 0.730 79/19 0.761 0.788

Syrphoctonus morio Yes Lack of data

Final map with Tarphius acuminatus Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points Final map with T. gabrielae Yes Lack of data for SDM occurrence

points T. picoensis Yes 12/2 0.944 0.951 12/2 0.824 0.562

Telmatopelopia nemorum Yes Lack of data Excluded

Tipula macaronesica Yes Lack of data Excluded

Final map with Trechus montanheirorum Yes Cave species occurrence

points Final map with T. pereirai Yes Cave species occurrence

points Final map with T. picoensis Yes Cave species occurrence

points Trigoniophthalmus borgesi Yes 36/8 0.920 0.907 36/8 0.918 0.937

Udea azorensis Yes 123/30 0.781 0.656 106/26 0.742 0.721

Walckenaeria grandis Yes 24/6 0.946 0.940 24/6 0.926 0.964

Xanthandrus azorensis Yes Lack of data Excluded

Xanthorhoe inaequata Yes 220/54 0.784 0.764 190/47 0.755 0.701