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The Vaccine War | Chemtrails, Not | Houdini | Conjuring | MUFON & Bigfoot | Mysterious Marks

the Magazine for and Reason Vol. 40 No. 6 | November/December 2016

40TH ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION PART II Eugenie SCOTT ODYSSEYS IN Christopher C. FRENCH Wendy GROSSMAN SCIENTIFIC Richard SAUNDERS Michael MARSHALL

NUCLEAR POWER and the of Evaluating Risk MICHAEL MANN and the Climate Wars INTRODUCTORY PRICE U.S. and Canada $5.99 Masquerading as Science

Published by the in association with the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Robyn E. Blumner, CEO , Research Fellow     Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or Benjamin Radford, Research Fellow , Senior Research Fellow , Research Fellow ODYSSEYS IN www.csicop.org SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM 40th Anniversary Celebration Fellows James E. Al cock*, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe In sti tute; Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA Mar cia An gell, MD, former ed i tor-in-chief, No bel lau re ate Lor en Pan kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health New Eng land Jour nal of Med i cine Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. Sci en ces Univ. IV, MD, ; author; Newton, MA David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and re searcher at Barbara Robert L. Park, professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Steph en Bar rett, MD, psy chi a trist; au thor; con sum er ad vo cate, Ann Kar manos Cancer Institute and chief of breast surgery Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Al len town, PA section, Wayne State University School of Medicine. Astronomy and director of the Hopkins Willem Betz, MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first editor, Observatory, Williams College Ir ving Bie der man, psy chol o gist, Univ. of South ern CA The Skeptic magazine (UK) John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. Sus an Black more, vis it ing lec tur er, Univ. of the West of Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and Clifford A. Pickover, scientist, au thor, editor, IBM T.J. Watson Eng land, Bris tol Sci en ces, professor of phi los o phy and professor Re search Center. Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York Times of Law, Univ. of Mi ami Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, science correspondent Harriet Hall*, MD, physician; investigator, Puyallup, WA City Univ. of New York–Lehman College , physicist, Sandia National Laboratories, David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Stev en Pink er, cog ni tive sci en tist, Harvard Univ. Albuquerque, NM Columbia Univ. Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer; au thor; ex ec u tive Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., di rect or of CI CAP, It a ly Pleasantville, NY Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist; pro fes sor emer i tus James L. Powell, geochemist, author, professor; executive direc- of Eng lish, Univ. of Utah Doug las R. Hof stad ter, pro fes sor of hu man tor, National Physical Science Consortium; retired college and un der stand ing and cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ., Montreal museum president, Buellton, CA Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Pro fes sor of Phys ics and pro fes sor Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, Univ. of CA, Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. Sacramento City College; writer Santa Cruz Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist; vice president for science Ray Hy man*, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Or e gon Donald R. Prothero, paleontologist/geologist, Natural History education, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Madison, WI Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus; Museum of County, Los Angeles, CA Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; founder and chairman, science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of Public Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Committee Recycled Energy Development, Westmont, IL Policy, Washington, DC for Skeptical Inquiry John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist; ed i tor, Na tion al Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for James “The Amazing” Randi, magician; CSICOP founding Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, NY member; founder, Educational Foundation K.C. Cole, science writer; author; professor, Univ. of Southern Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go California’s Annenberg School of Journalism of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept.; Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny John Cook, climate communication research fellow for director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Richard Saunders, president, ; educator; the Global Change Institute at the Univ. of Queensland, Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer; di rect or, investigator; podcaster; Sydney, Australia Australia. Grif fith Ob ser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for Science and Society Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic; pro fes sor emer i tus Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer Eu ge nie C. Scott*, phys i cal an thro pol o gist; chair, advisory of Eng lish, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; council , Na tion al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. No bel lau re ate in phys ics Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer Ge of frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia Stephan Lewandowsky, psychologist, School of Experimental Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Mountain View, CA Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, Univ. of Utrecht, Psychology and Cabot Institute, Univ. of Bristol, UK the Neth er lands Scott O. Lil i en feld*, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ., , GA , science writer; broadcaster; UK Dan i el C. Den nett, Aus tin B. Fletch er Pro fes sor of Phi los o phy Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) Dick Smith, entrepreneur, publisher, aviator, adventurer, Terrey Hills, N.S.W., Australia and di rect or of Cen ter for Cog ni tive Stud ies, Tufts Uni v. Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; professor of Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Cosmos Studios, Eliz a beth Loft us*, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, Univ. of CA, Ir vine human development and applied psychology, Uni v. of Ithaca, NY , author, editor of Junior Skeptic at Skeptic maga- Toronto Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist zine (US), artist, Vancouver, B.C., Canada *, linguist; skeptical investigator; writer; Association and Rationalist International Da vid Marks, psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don podcaster , professor, Complementary Medicine, Peninsula Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, Mex i co City Jill Cor nell Tar ter, as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, Moun tain View, CA Medical School, Universities of Exeter and Plymouth, Car ol Tav ris, psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA Exeter, UK Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Brown Univ. Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Cen ter Da vid E. Thom as*, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, Socorro, NM Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Cen tral Con nec ti cut State Univ. Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Neil de Gras se Ty son, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, Hay den Plan e tar i um, Krista Federspiel, science journalist, expert on complementary Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI and , Vienna, Austria. , mathematician, Waalre, Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, TV and podcast host, Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, SE Louisiana Univ. The Netherlands and opera singer, San Francisco, CA An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, Los Al tos Hills, CA Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Med aille Col lege Stuart Vyse, psychologist, former Joanne Toor Cummings ’50 professor of psychology, Connecticut College; author Kend rick Fra zi er*, sci ence writer; ed i tor, S    I   *, MD, assistant professor of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine of Believing in : The Psychology of Superstition Christopher C. French, professor, Department Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, Nye Labs Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine con trib ut ing ed i tor of Psychology, and head of the Research Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of James E. Oberg, sci ence writer Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, Univ. of Julia Galef, host of the Rationally Speaking podcast; Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), Tex as at Aus tin; No bel lau re ate cofounder, Center for Applied Rationality, Berkeley, CA Mar burg, Ger ma ny E.O. Wil son, Univ. pro fes sor emer i tus, organismic and evolu- Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia (); Paul Offit, professor of pediatrics, director of the Vaccine Educa- tionary biology, Har vard Univ. research fellow of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group tion Center, the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Hert ford shire, England Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Victoria Naomi Oreskes, geologist and professor, departments of the Benjamin Wolozin, professor, Department of Pharmacology, Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand History of Science and Earth and Planetary , Boston Univ. School of Medicine

* Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion on ly.)

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COLUMNS ODYSSEYS IN FROM THE EDITOR SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM Skeptics’ Odysseys and 40th Anniversary Celebration ’s Voyages ...... 4 NEWS AND COMMENT Burzynski Update: Texas Hearings End, 35 Judges Sifting Evidence / Chemtrails? In First Peer-Reviewed Published Survey, Bigfoot and I: Reflect÷ns on Atmospheric Scientists Say No / Study Forty Years of Skepticism Reveals How Harms Economies EUGENIE SCOTT / ‘Ghostly’ Image at Haunted Stanley Hotel / Animas River Spill Spawns Conspiracy Theories / Woman Dies Searching for 37 Monster / Apollo Astronauts Claimed to My Personal Odyssey Hear ‘Space Music’ ...... 5 in Skepticism INVES TI GA TIVE FILES HARRIET HALL Dispelling Demons: Detective Work at The Conjuring House JOE NICK ELL ...... 20 39 VIBRATIONS From Tiny Acorns . . . MUFON Gets into CHRISTOPHER C. FRENCH the Bigfoot Business ROBERT SHEAFFER ...... 25

41 THE SCIENCE OF SCIENCE COMMUNICATION Spreading Skepticism Winning the Vaccine War WENDY GROSSMAN MATTHEW NISBET ...... 27 SKEPTICAL INQUIREE 43 ‘M’ Is for Mysterious Marks A Glimpse Backward—and BENJAMIN RADFORD ...... 30 Forward—at Skepticism’s NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD Big Tent Houdini and the Cancer BENJAMIN RADFORD of Superstition MASSIMO POLIDORO ...... 32

45 LET TERS TO THE ED I TOR ...... 62

How I Got Hooked on THE LAST LAUGH ...... 66 the Skeptical World SUSAN GERBIC

47 SPECIAL REPORT The Day the World 14 Changed . . . for Me Superstition Masquerading RICHARD SAUNDERS as Science RACHEL AMMIRATI, SCOTT O. 49 LILIENFELD, AND DEAN MCKAY Skeptical Activism from the Bottom Up MICHAEL MARSHALL ARTICLE INTERVIEW 56 17 51 Michael Mann and and the Climate Wars Committee for Skeptical the Psychology of MARK BOSLOUGH Inquiry Timeline, 2001–2016 Evaluating Risk DANIEL A. VOGEL Committee for Skeptical Inquiry ™ “... promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use Skep ti cal In quir er of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.” THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON EDI TOR Kend rick Fra zi er DEPUTY EDI TOR Ben ja min Rad ford MANA GING EDI TOR Julia Lavarnway [ FROM THE EDITOR ASSISTANT EDITOR Nicole Scott ART DIRECT OR Chri sto pher Fix PRODUC TION Paul E. Loynes Skeptics’ Odysseys and Star Trek’s Voyages WEBMASTER Matthew Licata PUBLISH ER’S REPRE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr

e conclude our fortieth anniversary celebration of the S I- EDI TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Harriet Hall,  and the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry with eight invited Ray Hy man, Scott O. Lilienfeld, , Joe Nickell, Steven Novella, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. essays in this issue by noted skeptics collectively labeled “Odysseys in Scott, Karen Stollznow, David E. Thomas, W Scientific Skepticism.” Eugenie Scott, Harriet Hall, Christopher French, Wendy Leonard Tramiel CONSULT ING EDI TORS Sus an J. Black more, Grossman, Ben Radford, Susan Gerbic, Richard Saunders, and Michael Mar- Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E.C. Krupp, shall share their personal journeys into scientific skepticism. I think you’ll be Jay M. Pasachoff, Rich ard Wis e man impressed with the many different paths they found. Following that, we present CONTRIB UT ING EDI TORS D.J. Grothe, Harriet Hall, Kenneth W. Krause, David Morrison, James E. Oberg, a detailed update of the CSI(COP) historical timeline. Preparing it, I was sur- Massimo Pigliucci, Rob ert Sheaf fer, David E. Thomas prised how much has happened in the past twenty years. Published in association with * * * Our first feature article about nuclear power is not by a nuclear engineer or a CHAIR Edward Tabash nuclear advocate (or nuclear opponent). It is by a psychologist, Daniel A. Vogel, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Robyn E. Blumner who began his exploration of this crucial topic by wondering if part of the oppo- PRESIDENT Ronald A. Lindsay sition to nuclear power is psychological—rooted in problems with how we eval- CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Barry Karr uate risk. Our cover article, “Nuclear Power and the Psychology of Evaluating CORPO RATE COUNSEL Nicholas J. Little, Risk,” is the result. I think it is a good first step in helping all of us use the tools Brenton N. VerPloeg BUSINESS MANA GER Pa tri cia Beau champ of scientific skepticism to understand our own thinking, good and bad, about FISCAL OFFI CER Paul Pau lin energy and risk. SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER Jacalyn Mohr * * * COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo DIRECT OR OF LIBRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga I write this on the day Star Trek passed the fifty-year milestone since the first VICE PRESIDENT FOR PHILANTHROPY Martina Fern episode aired in 1966. With this anniversary and all the Star Trek movies (the DIRECTOR, COUNCIL FOR SECULAR HUMANISM thirteenth opened this past summer) and follow-on TV series (the seventh starts Tom Flynn DIRECTOR, CAMPUS AND COMMUNITY PROGRAMS in 2017) Star Trek is again getting tremendous attention. I saw that first episode Debbie Goddard when it originally aired on NBC and was immediately hooked by the freshness, DIRECTOR, AFRICAN AMERICANS FOR HUMANISM originality, optimism, and vision of the series. Not to mention the memorable Debbie Goddard BOARD OF DIRECTORS, Edward Tabash (chair), characters and multiethnic crew, including Spock, the epitome of logic and ra- Brian Engler, Kendrick Frazier, Barry A. Kosmin, tionalism. I was soon calling up friends and having them come over to watch Y. Sherry Sheng, Leonard Tramiel. Honorary: Rebecca Newberger Goldstein, the next week’s episode. Star Trek creator Gene Roddenberry and his writers Susan Jacoby, Lawrence Krauss. brought to television an optimistic vision of the future that resonated with me and millions of others. The Apollo program had us on the path to the moon, and all things seemed possible. The new series was a brilliant extension of the science fiction I’d grown up with by Heinlein, Bradbury, Clarke, Asimov, and countless others. It was thoughtful. It was philosophical. It had deep humanity. Like all good science fiction, it raised complex social issues and exposed them in an entirely new light. An example is the episode in which two races on a planet are trying to annihilate each other because they think they are so fundamentally different. One race is black on the left side, white on the right; the other, just the opposite. Our noble characters saw instead only similarities, not differences, and on that point the story progressed. Star T rek , as science and exploration does generally, gave us a sense of possi- bilities, of a future better and more exciting and awe-inspiring than we knew. I think we’ve all lost something of that sense, and I think it is important we get it back. We skeptics embrace science, and that includes not just We continue our fortieth anniversary celebration with essays by eight noted skeptics on their “Odysseys in but that adventurous quest for new knowledge and new discoveries that Star Trek Scientific Skepticism” and a fifteen-year update and its successors so powerfully dramatized. of the CSI(COP) timeline. Our feature article consid- ers “Nuclear Power and the Psychology —K  F  of Evaluating Risk.” [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Burzynski Update: Texas Hearings End, Judges Sifting Evidence

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August 2016 saw the end of argu- ments in the administrative hearing following disturbing allegations by the Texas Medical Board about Stanislaw Burzynski’s Houston cancer clinic. Burzynski, the discoverer, manufac- turer, sole U.S. prescriber, and sole U.S. dispenser of a cancer treatment he calls “antineoplastons,” has been treat- ing patients with his unproven ther- apy for forty years. For the past two decades, Burzynski has administered his drug under the auspices of dozens of FDA-approved clinical trials, none of which has been able to answer whether or not antineoplastons are effective. Participation in the trials, which are and protested outside the State Office admitting no evidence that was not al- generally not covered by insurance, can of Administrative Hearings, as they ready in the record. Burzynski’s lawyers cost patients hundreds of thousands of have done many times in the past when moved to have the Board’s entire clos- dollars. (See “The Burzynski Battles: Burzynski found himself in legal trou- ing argument struck from the record for Four Decades of Unproven Cancer ble. Just before Christmas 2015, during violating the page-length requirements; Cure Claims,” SI, March/April 2014.) a planned hiatus before Burzynski put the ALJs denied the motion. A complaint was filed in December forward his case in January, Burzynski The case file closed on August 15. 2013 by the Texas Medical Board fol- was diagnosed with Acute Coronary According to transcripts of the hear- lowing an FDA investigation, which Syndrome (99 percent occlusion of one ings, the judges have sixty days to sift found the clinical trials in a breath- artery, according to his doctor’s note to takingly poor state. The original com- through some 75,000 pages of exhib- the court). The final leg of the hear- plaint was expanded to some 200 pages its that were submitted into evidence. ing was postponed until May, when of allegations in July of 2014, though When the ALJs issue their findings they have since been pared down for Burzynski’s legal team made their case. of fact, those charges will be brought concision. The Board staff alleged that Final arguments were submitted to the Texas Medical Board, which Burzynski failed to meet the standard in writing to the administrative law will decide whether or not Burzynski of care with nontherapeutic prescrib- judges (ALJs) overseeing the hearing. will be allowed to continue to practice ing, abetted the practice of medicine by A seventy-five-page limit was placed medicine. The sheer number of aggra- unlicensed personnel, denied patients on these documents. The Board staff vating factors in this long, complex case informed consent, failed to disclose asked for a relaxing of the restriction on suggests that the Board staff will seek relevant pharmacy and lab ownership length, as their revised complaint alone to strip Burzynski of his license. Disci- interests to patients, billed improperly was fifty pages. The closing argument, plinary proceedings against other mem- and demanded retainers, practiced de- they argued, would also have to incor- bers of the Burzynski Clinic’s staff, ceptive marketing, committed a host of porate their evidence, and they bore the three (including Burzynski’s failures to protect patients, kept inad- burden of proof in the case. The ALJs son, Greg) and a physician’s assistant, equate records, and failed to adhere to disagreed and held the page limit to are scheduled to begin later this year. protocols in his clinical trials. seventy-five. When the final briefs were Robert Blaskiewicz is assistant professor The hearing proper began in No- submitted, the Board held their closing of critical thinking and first-year studies at vember 2015, when Board experts who argument proper to seventy-five pages Stockton University. He appears on the live had previously been deposed were cross and included eighteen pages of citations Virtual Skeptics web show (Wednesdays at -examined by Burzynski’s lawyers. Nu- and seven appendices—spreadsheets 8PM EST, virtualskeptics.com) and founded merous Burzynski supporters, includ- that chronologically listed the dates and ing a handful of former patients and types of infractions alleged to have been The OTHER Burzynski Patient Group web- their families, attended these hearings committed by Burzynski but crucially site.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 5 Chemtrails? In First Peer-Reviewed Published Survey, Atmospheric Scientists Say No

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The news undoubtedly won’t faze com- who should know. The in chem- ries—but rather to establish a source mitted “chemtrail” believers who long trails seems to parallel increasing pub- of objective peer-reviewed science ago barricaded themselves behind an lic distrust of elites and institutions, as that can inform public discourse in the future by seriously addressing impenetrable wall of conspiratorial shown in earlier social science research. the underlying concerns of science, thinking. But the rest of us—including Christine Shearer and Steven J. governance, and public trust. some who may have wondered, just a Davis of the Department of Earth Sys- little bit—now have some authoritative tem Science at the University of Cali- The idea of such a secret spray- scientific word. fornia, Irvine, both also affiliated with ing program, commonly referred to as

The debate will now no longer be a scientific one, if it ever was, but only a continuing argument among dedicated believers.

What the authors say is the first the Carnegie Institution of Science, and “chemtrails,” is believed to be true or peer-reviewed expert response from at- colleagues Mike West and Ken Cal- partly true by 17 percent of people, ac- mospheric scientists about chemtrails— deira conducted a survey of two groups cording to one international survey ref- if they existed—has been published in of experts—atmospheric chemists with erenced in the paper. A number of web- a scientific journal. Specifically, the au- expertise in condensation trails and sites promulgate such ideas. Despite the thors surveyed experts to scientifically geochemists working on atmospheric claim’s prevalence, there have been few evaluate the popular claim, advanced by deposition of dust and pollution. attempts to seriously and scientifically Their paper, “Quantifying Expert a small but vocal group of people, that evaluate the conspiracy theory. In 2000, Consensus against the Existence of there is a secret large-scale atmospheric the U.S. Environmental Protection program involving widespread chemi- a Secret, Large-Scale Atmospheric agency, Federal Aviation Administra- cal spraying from high-altitude aircraft. Spraying Program,” was published in tion, NASA, and the National Oce- Not true, the scientists say: there is no the August 10 Environmental Research anic and Atmospheric Administration such evidence. Letters (available online at iopscience. posted a fact sheet to assure the public The condensation trails, or con- iop.org) and announced in an August trails, of condensed moisture that peo- 12 news release from UC, Irvine. that the government is not operating ple see behind high-flying airliners and Say the authors: such a large-scale spraying system. But until now, no peer-reviewed studies in other aircraft are just that. They aren’t We find broad scientific consen- “chemtrails.” sus against the existence of a secret the scientific literature had addressed The debate will now no longer be a large-scale atmospheric spraying the claims. scientific one, if it ever was, but only a program. Our goal is not to sway Shearer, Davis, and colleagues used those already convinced that there the ISI Web of Science to identify au- continuing argument among dedicated is a secret, large-scale spraying pro- believers who, no matter what, won’t gram—who often reject counter-ev- thors of the most cited peer-reviewed trust or accept the word of the scientists idence as further proof of their theo- publications covering condensation

6 Volume 40 Issue 6 | [ NEWS AND COMMENT

trails and atmospheric deposition of dust and particles onto Earth’s surface. A total of seventy-seven experts com- pleted the authors’ surveys. All were told the survey would be confidential; “Our survey found little agreement in the scientific the paper lists all participants’ names community with claims that the government, and affiliations, but responses aren’t at- tributed to specific experts. the military, airlines, and others are colluding in In response to the survey’s general a widespread, nefarious program to poison the question of whether they have ever en- countered evidence that indicates the planet from the skies.” existence of secret large-scale atmo- — Steven J. Davis, spheric spraying programs, seventy-six of the experts responding (98.7 per- study coauthor cent) answered no. They were all shown four photos that believers contend show evidence of chemtrails and asked whether se- cret, large-scale atmospheric spraying across evidence of a secret, large-scale ence at UC, Irvine. “Our survey found was the simplest explanation. In each atmospheric spraying program. None little agreement in the scientific com- case, 100 percent of the respondents thought any of the four photos in the munity with claims that the govern- answered no. They offered instead a survey were best explained by chemical ment, the military, airlines, and others variety of probable scientific explana- spraying. are colluding in a widespread, nefarious tions. Longer and shorter contrails, for The study’s experts noted that there program to poison the planet from the example, can be attributed to different are more contrails than there used to skies.” humidity/atmospheric conditions, dif- be. But there has been steady growth in Davis ended with this reasoned as- air travel in recent decades, which leads ferent altitudes, and so on. Swirling sessment: “We don’t imagine that we’re airplanes to fly higher where contrails trails can be attributed to wind shear/ going to sway the beliefs of hardcore are more likely to form and remain in advection and high-altitude winds, air- adherents to the chemtrails conspiracy craft circling in a holding pattern, or the sky. Also, engines are larger and fuel efficiencies better, leading to cre- theory with this study. But we thought military or acrobatic aircraft flying in it was important to go on the record looping patterns. ation of cooler water vapor. with fundamental scientific facts to re- They were also asked about claims of The authors conclude in their paper: fute claims that the government is de- aluminum, barium, and strontium being While we understand that many of liberately spreading harmful chemicals found in pond sediments or in snow. The the fears underlying [chemtrail] the- most common answers were that the ories may be legitimate, the evidence from aircraft.” as evaluated here does not point to What’s been the reaction? Coauthor concentrations are typical and of natural a secret atmospheric spraying pro- Davis told the S I: origin. Barium, copper, and magnesium gram. Changes in aircraft technol- in airborne particles could be attributed to ogies may be causing contrails to “The response has been expectedly industrial pollution or are typical concen- persist longer than they used to, mixed. There have been emails from trations of natural origin. and changes in industrial develop- people calling me names and calling the ment could potentially be increasing They also asked the deposition ex- aerosol deposition in some areas. paper ‘junk science,’ and there was even perts about the advice of one chemtrail But the focus on a secret, large- someone who’d taken what looked to website on how nonspecialists can col- scale atmospheric spraying program be a lot of time assessing our methodol- lect samples of surface water to obtain may be taking attention away from ogy, survey wording, and makeup of the relevant evidence of “aerosol engineer- real, underlying problems that need addressing. group of expert participants. But on the ing,” another name for the chemtrails flip side, I’ve also gotten an even greater idea. Most of the experts disagreed or “The chemtrails conspiracy theory number of emails expressing apprecia- disagreed sharply with the instructions, maps pretty closely to the origin and tion and gratitude for our taking up the saying the steps would lead to contam- growth of the internet, where you can topic and publishing the paper at all, ination (and, hence, likely false-positive still find a number of websites that pro- saying they thought it would be useful.” results). mote this particular brand of pseudo- Kendrick Frazier is the editor of the S - For the contrail survey, no ex- science,” said study coauthor Davis, an pert thought he or she had ever come associate professor of Earth system sci-  I.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 7 Study Reveals How Witchcraft Harms Economies B  R

Africa, notes: Witchcraft, as an ideology and as a practice, is a development issue in the sense that it hampers economic prog- ress as people, afraid of being accused of practicing witchcraft, refrain from any activity that may make them appear more successful in life than others. . . . Fear of witchcraft often inhibits people from undertaking any productive activity in areas where this is often most needed. As a result, ambitious young people will move away and start businesses elsewhere. In South Africa witchcraft accusa- tions are often made against those who initiate development projects or otherwise try to improve their con- ditions of life. Throughout much of Africa, being Belief in magic is connected to a lack called a “witch” is not merely an insult. of economic growth in Africa and else- In some cases, the mere accusation can where, new research shows. A 2010 lead to ostracism, persecution, or even Gallup poll found that belief in magic death at the hands of an angry mob. is widespread throughout sub-Saharan Belief in magic may Women and the elderly are especially Africa, with over half of respondents vulnerable because they are believed to saying they personally believe in witch- seem quaint or harmless, be more closely associated with black, craft. African witch doctors are con- but it can have serious or malicious, magic than male witches. sulted not only for healing diseases but And it’s not just Africa; Gershman also for placing blessings on businesses consequences ranging writes: and curses on rivals. from witch hunts to Evidence from societies beyond For many Africans, magic is rou- Africa shows that in preindustrial tinely used for personal and financial murder. It harms communities where witchcraft is gain. Belief in magic may seem quaint economies as well. believed to be an important cause of illness, mistrust and other antisocial or harmless, but it can have serious con- traits are inculcated since childhood. sequences ranging from witch hunts to Furthermore, second-generation murder. It harms economies as well. immigrants in Europe originating A new large-scale economics study, from countries with widespread the first of its kind, explores witch- interpersonal relationships and in eco- witchcraft beliefs are generally less trusting. craft—defined as the use of the su- nomic development; for example, a pernatural to harm others or acquire business owner is unlikely to enter into Gershman suggests that increased edu- wealth—and its role in the erosion of contracts with others if he or she doesn’t cation may help solve the problem as a social capital such as trust. Boris Gersh- trust those partners to fulfill their obli- scientific worldview replaces a super- man, an economics professor at Amer- gations. Gershman found the same lack stitious one. The research, “Witchcraft ican University, examined survey data of trust in other metrics of social capital, Beliefs and the Erosion of Social Capital: from nineteen countries in sub-Saha- including charitable giving and religious Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa ran Africa and found “a robust negative participation. and Beyond,” appeared in the May association between the prevalence of Gerrie ter Haar, a professor of reli- 2016 Journal of Development Economics. witchcraft beliefs and multiple measures gion, human rights, and social change, of trust.” writing in Imagining Evil: Witchcraft Benjamin Radford is the deputy editor of Trust is an essential ingredient in Beliefs and Accusations in Contemporary the S  I.

8 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

‘Ghostly’ Image at Haunted Stanley Hotel B  R

A visitor to a famous—and famously zarre and double images (see, for exam- body parts, double exposures, objects haunted—hotel in Colorado claimed to ple, a Tumblr account titled “Panorama behind people seemingly coming out have captured a ghostly image in April Fail”). Biddle notes: of their heads, and so on. Usually they 2016. According to an April 18 news When looking at a close up of the are ignored or deleted, unless the pho- story on CNN, “Tourist Henry Yau alleged and second ghost (to tographer (or someone else) decides recently took a picture at the Stanley the left of the more solid looking that there’s some reason why the photo Hotel in Estes Park, Colorado, which figure), we see that the features of might be of something supernatural. both figures match up: the hair, the appears to show two ghostly apparitions The photo was taken at a doubly standing on a staircase. In the photo, a spaghetti-strap top, the height of the head, shoulders, and the top of the famous hotel—not only did it inspire woman can be seen at the top of the dress. This is a double image of the the horror classic The Shining, but it’s stairs in a period outfit with a child same person, not someone else. This also claimed to be one of the most beside her.” effect was caused by the low light haunted hotels in the country and pro- environment, slower scanning speed As expected, several amateur ghost motes itself as a ghost hunting desti- hunters weighed in suggesting it’s un- due to the camera trying to take in more light, and the movement of this nation. To some degree, we see what explainable. Others, however, have person as they rounded the corner. we want or expect to see—and that can a pretty good idea of what it is. Re- include . People who are aware searcher Kenny Biddle of the Geeks & Yau claims that he doesn’t remem- of a building’s haunted reputation are Ghosts podcast examined the photo and ber seeing anyone at the top of the more likely to take many photos, and noted that Yau used the panoramic fea- staircase when he took the photo, but ture on his iPhone to capture a full view it’s quite possible that he simply didn’t anything odd or even potentially mys- of the grand staircase. This is important notice the woman as she appeared and terious in those photos is likely to be because in panorama mode, the camera turned at the top of the stairs, because considered evidence of ghosts. A person doesn’t just take one photo but instead he was trying to hold the camera steady could take an equal number of similar scans across the scene rapidly. and take the photo. Upon closer inspec- odd photos at a location not assumed to Biddle noted in a Facebook post: tion there is nothing remarkable in the be haunted, and the odd photographic artifacts would not be as closely exam- Panoramic images are not taken image; it’s a perfectly ordinary blurry, in the same fraction of a second as double image common in long exposure ined or interpreted as anything myste- normal images are. They take several and panoramic iPhone photographs. rious, just as flaws in the photos. seconds . . . which would allow Yau Had it been taken in any number of The second contextual factor is to start taking his panoramic image other locations, it would not likely of course that the Stanley Hotel and at one end of the room, and another guest or two to hit the halfway point have attracted such attention. So why others like it have a vested economic down the stairs, turn the corner, and was this image played up as a mystery? interest in promoting such photos as begin the second set of stairs to the Context plays two roles in the cre- ghostly—or at the very least main- floor as Yau ends his panoramic ation of “spooky” photos. Most people taining an agnostic stance about them. image on the other side of the room. routinely take photos that are flawed There is no publicity to be gained by Odd glitches using the panorama in some way or that have odd or un- casting any doubt on a claimed ghost function on cameras are common, and usual images in them, including flash photo taken in their hotel that’s making many websites display hundreds of bi- reflected “orbs,” odd shadows, blurry news.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 9 We’ve made giving a damn surprisingly a ordable

rom time to time we conduct reader surveys. to promote (If you’ve completed one, thank you.) When understanding results come in, two items of interest always among Americans Fjump out. of di ering beliefs. One is that readers like you do not lack in We’re there to intelligence. You’ve probably noticed that we don’t ensure that the growing “dumb down” our articles. ere’s no need. population of “Nones” is no longer overlooked. e other is that you give a damn. You give a damn about things like bettering the world, Not only that. We give science teachers tools standing up for science and reason, and promoting for teaching evolution, help provide schooling for human rights and secular values. Kenyan orphans, unite skeptics and freethinkers in problem-solving forums, stir things up with our We give a damn, too. Many of our readers are popular podcast on science, surprised to learn the extent to which the Center , and politics, and more. for Inquiry works on the front lines, over and above publishing magazines. To maintain this level of activism, we hold operational costs to the minimum. Our lean, And we’re winning. first-rate staff does the work other organizations e Food and Drug Administration recently spread among many more people. As a result, invited CFI to testify about the dangers and abuses you’d be amazed at how far we make even the of . We didn’t stop there. Right now smallest contribution stretch. we’re busily following up to see that positive action If, like many of our readers, you give a damn follows. and long to help make a difference, here’s great Perhaps you’ve heard of writer-activist Shammi news: the step from giving a damn to taking Haque. It was the Center for Inquiry that helped action costs next to nothing. With our bare-bones her escape from her native Bangladesh, where approach, a pledge of as little as nine dollars a her name had landed on a notorious hit list. More month—c’mon, we know you can spare nine secularists in the Middle East are in danger, and we bucks—makes a BIG dierence. If you can manage need to be there for them. more, you’ll make all the more dierence. You probably know that the U.S. Supreme Court Please do more than care. Visit struck down a horrible Texas law designed to make centerforinquiry.net/damn and click “Donate” legal abortions there all but impossible. What you to see how aordable bettering the world can be. may not know is the role the Center for Inquiry You’ll be helping spread knowledge, inuence played. e amicus brief we led with the Court legislation—and, yes, even save lives. did a thorough job of exposing the aws behind the ank you state’s arguments and its in advance. e so-called experts. best time to visit Right now we’re centerforinquiry.net/ participating in a new, Click on “Donate” at centerforinquiry.damn damn is now, while it’s national program designed or contact Rosemarie Giambrone on your mind. Phone: 800-818-7071 ext. 300 Email: [email protected] [ NEWS AND COMMENT

We’ve made giving a damn Animas River Spill Spawns Conspiracy Theories surprisingly a ordable B  R rom time to time we conduct reader surveys. to promote (If you’ve completed one, thank you.) When understanding On August 5, 2015, contractors working results come in, two items of interest always among Americans for the U.S. Environmental Protection Fjump out. of di ering beliefs. Agency (EPA) accidentally released about three million gallons of polluted One is that readers like you do not lack in We’re there to mine wastewater into Colorado’s Animas intelligence. You’ve probably noticed that we don’t ensure that the growing River. The stew of toxic elements tempo- “dumb down” our articles. ere’s no need. population of “Nones” is no rarily turned the river orange and caused longer overlooked. concern for wildlife, farmers, tourism, e other is that you give a damn. You give and those who depend on the river for a damn about things like bettering the world, Not only that. We give science teachers tools drinking water. Tests conducted three standing up for science and reason, and promoting for teaching evolution, help provide schooling for weeks after the spill found no harmful human rights and secular values. Kenyan orphans, unite skeptics and freethinkers levels of any contaminants in the river, in problem-solving forums, stir things up with our though many are concerned that the riv- We give a damn, too. Many of our readers are popular Point of Inquiry podcast on science, er’s sediments may be toxic and remain surprised to learn the extent to which the Center religion, and politics, and more. so for years to come. for Inquiry works on the front lines, over and above Accidents and disasters—especially publishing magazines. To maintain this level of activism, we hold life-threatening ones, though the Ani- operational costs to the minimum. Our lean, mas spill is not known to have harmed And we’re winning. first-rate staff does the work other organizations anyone—often spawn conspiracy theo- e Food and Drug Administration recently spread among many more people. As a result, ries. The most popular theory claims that invited CFI to testify about the dangers and abuses the EPA purposely polluted the river as age of mine waste might result in water you’d be amazed at how far we make even the being backed up and releasing on its own of homeopathy. We didn’t stop there. Right now a way to obtain extra funding available smallest contribution stretch. for cleanup; under this classic “follow the accidentally; as Taylor stated in an Au- we’re busily following up to see that positive action If, like many of our readers, you give a damn money” scenario, the EPA decided the The stew of toxic elements gust 13 interview with Breitbart News, follows. “That’s one thing about the government. and long to help make a difference, here’s great best way to get free money for Superfund temporarily turned the Perhaps you’ve heard of writer-activist Shammi sites—as this could potentially be desig- They never gave any thought to the pos- news: the step from giving a damn to taking river orange and caused sibility this thing could blow.” Haque. It was the Center for Inquiry that helped nated—was to create a disaster. As one action costs next to nothing. With our bare-bones typical conspiracy commenter opined concern for wildlife, Furthermore, a careful reading of the her escape from her native Bangladesh, where approach, a pledge of as little as nine dollars a (at http://tinyurl.com/okww4an), “I am letter (which can be found at http://www. her name had landed on a notorious hit list. More month—c’mon, we know you can spare nine thinking there were multiple reasons for farmers, tourism, and silvertonstandard.com/news.php?id=847) secularists in the Middle East are in danger, and we bucks—makes a BIG dierence. If you can manage something like this—funding, but also those who depend on the clearly states that the EPA’s hidden agenda is not—as the conspiracy theo- need to be there for them. more, you’ll make all the more dierence. Agenda2—re-wilding of the west—they want most all of the US to be ‘NO HU- river for drinking water. rists claim—gaining access to Superfund You probably know that the U.S. Supreme Court Please do more than care. Visit MANS ALLOWED’ . . . plus if people money through creating a natural disas- struck down a horrible Texas law designed to make centerforinquiry.net/damn and click “Donate” get sick/die from the heavy metals in the ter by poisoning a river but instead “con- legal abortions there all but impossible. What you process, it’s the sacrifice that must be struction of a treatment plant” for treat- to see how aordable bettering the world can be. written by retired geologist Dave Taylor may not know is the role the Center for Inquiry made (from their perspective).” ing existing mine waste. In fact, Taylor You’ll be helping spread knowledge, inuence published about a week before the spill in If this conspiracy is true, EPA Ad- explicitly states that “with a budget of played. e amicus brief we led with the Court legislation—and, yes, even save lives. a regional Colorado newspaper. The let- did a thorough job of exposing the aws behind the ministrator Gina McCarthy made an $8.2 billion and 17,000 employees, the ank you incredible sacrifice of her agency’s cred- ter seems to predict that the EPA is up to EPA needs new, big projects to justify state’s arguments and its something nefarious. Ironically, the letter in advance. e ibility—and potentially her own career— their existence.” In other words, accord- so-called experts. actually contradicts key claims made by best time to visit to secure extra government money for ing to the geologist, the EPA’s struggle Right now we’re her agency. This is akin to claiming that the conspiracy theorists who promote it. is not getting more money but using the centerforinquiry.net/ It does not predict an intentional spill participating in a new, police are committing crimes in order to money it already has. Cherry-picking Click on “Donate” at centerforinquiry.damn damn is now, while it’s inflate the crime rate and justify bigger of mine water into the Animas (or any evidence is of course classic conspiracy national program designed or contact Rosemarie Giambrone on your mind. budgets. As evidence of this conspiracy, other river) by the EPA but instead that theorist behavior, and any tiny nugget of Phone: 800-818-7071 ext. 300 Email: [email protected] proponents point to a letter to the editor well-meaning efforts at preventing seep- information that might conceivably be

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 11 twisted into evidence is gleefully shared. ing to keep cancer cures off the market spectrum endorse some version of con- It may seem odd that an obvious and push disease-causing vaccines on the spiracy theory. In their book American environmental accident would prompt public for the sake of profits. Conspiracy Theories, Joseph Uscinski and conspiracies, but there are several reasons Another element is the paradoxical as- Joseph Parent, both associate professors for this. In the world of conspiracies, as sumptions that conspiracy theorists make at the University of Miami, note that the saying goes, “there are no accidents.” regarding government competence: On latent conspiracy thinking among the Princess Diana’s death in a car “acci- one hand they believe that no one would public only becomes “widely activated in dent,” for example, was in fact a cleverly be stupid or careless enough to “acciden- a context where the belief helps a group disguised assassination by the British in- tally” trigger a breach in a retaining lake balance against threats. Conspiracy the- telligence agencies (or those upset at her of mine waste with heavy equipment, but ories are weapons of the weak to recover romance with an Arab man, etc.). Even on the other hand they claim that the hurricanes, wildfires, tsunamis, and other government sloppily leaves clues about from losses, improve [social] cohesion, obviously natural disasters, including the what they’re up to—for those clever and coordinate resistance.” In other 2010 Haiti earthquake, are suspected of enough to find them (such as those who words, the conspiracy theories surround- being part of a dark conspiracy. And, of misread Taylor’s letter to the editor). ing the Animas River allowed people to course, conspiracy theories abound on the Rumors, whether true or not, are vent their frustrations and distrust of the subject of health, with many convinced popular in part because they serve a social government—whether they really think that doctors and Big Pharma are collud- purpose. Many people across the political the spill was intentional or not.

Woman Dies Searching for Monster B  R

A young woman was killed in April 2016 the bridge, but the woman was hit and house near a cemetery. She and a friend outside of Louisville, Kentucky, when she dragged, soon dying at the scene. were trespassing, and she was critically and her boyfriend were walking along ele- A news story in The Courier Journal wounded when the homeowner mistook vated train tracks in search of a legend- reported that the pair had come to the the two for vandals. ary monster reputed to dwell there. The area from Dayton for a ghost hunt of the In an incident eerily similar to the couple—both from Ohio—were searching Waverly Hills Sanatorium and decided to Pope Lick death, a man in neighboring look for the Pope Lick monster in their for a beast called the Pope Lick monster. North Carolina was hit by a train in 2010 spare time. The Pope Lick monster is Roquel Bain, twenty-six, and her boyfriend while on the tracks at a rural bridge. The said to be part human, part goat, and were on the tracks when a train arrived; man was part of a ghost-hunting group part sheep. It is one of many part-hu- who hoped to see the ghost of a train the conductor saw them, sounded the man monsters of regional lore across the horn, and applied the brakes, but it was rumored to appear on the anniversary of country, including the Maryland Goat- an accident. Instead of a spectral train, too late. The man survived by dangling off Man and the Donkey Lady said to haunt a real one appeared from around a bend a bridge outside of San Antonio, Texas. and killed one man when he couldn’t get Though ghost- and monster-hunting out of the way in time. is depicted on television shows as harm- Unfortunately, Bain’s death will in- less—if fruitless—fun, the dangers are real even if the subjects of the searches evitably become part of the Pope Lick aren’t. No one searching for Bigfoot, the monster legend, whether she believed chupacabra, or the Loch Ness monster in it or not and whether the creature is has ever been injured or killed by one, real or not. Legends of vanishing hitch- just as generations of girls have bravely hikers and hook-handed escaped serial attempted to summon the legendary killers can make for spooky fun around mirror-dwelling ghost/witch Bloody Mary a campfire, but those who seek real-life without serious incident. thrills should be careful. No one should Deaths and serious injuries are not lose his or her life over a rumor or leg- common, but they do happen. In 2006, end, and the death of Bain and others is for example, an Ohio girl was shot while neither spooky nor funny but tragic and exploring legends about a haunted preventable.

12 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Apollo Astronauts Claimed to Hear ‘Space Music’

B  R

A show that aired in February claimed music that had appeared in popular cul- by the crew during debriefings back on that the Apollo 10 mission encountered ture used to evoke an outer-space setting, Earth—as they should have been, as a mysterious music or an alien signal while such as perhaps the theremin instrument fundamental safety principle of exam- ining all anomalies for indications of on the dark side of the moon. in The Day the Earth Stood Still or The threatening malfunctions. According to a Discovery News Thing from Another World or countless story, “The astronauts who flew the other radio plays or television shows such The idea that the astronauts discussed dress rehearsal for the first lunar land- as The Twilight Zone and The Outer Lim- whether or not to tell NASA about ing reported hearing mysterious ‘outer its and so on, which were broadcast de- the sound is nonsensical, since all their space-type music’ while flying behind cades before the Apollo 10 mission. transmissions and conversations were the moon in May 1969. The case of the What the Science Channel show re- being recorded. The discussion was not odd, unexplained whistling noise is un- fers to as “an unsettling incident on the whether to engage in a conspiracy to hide covered during an upcoming episode of far side of the moon” was in fact de- what they heard (as Oberg notes, some the Science Channel series, NASA’ s Un- scribed as merely a “whistling sound” at of it was being broadcast live, and in any explained Files.” the time, and sensationalizing TV writers event even if it weren’t, NASA would The Apollo 10 astronauts can be expanded it into something far more sig- find out sooner or later when the record- heard on the tapes mentioning the odd nificant, including “strange otherworldly ings were reviewed). Instead the discus- sound, which lasted nearly an hour. music.” Despite it being casually referred sion was whether the odd sound might Some reports even suggested that there to as “music,” there’s no mention of indicate a severe enough communication was an attempt to keep the event a secret: the sound having any characteristics of problem that Mission Control should be “The Apollo 10 astronauts—Tom Staf- music: no melody, rhythm, or form, for notified. ford, John Young and Eugene Cernan— example. In short, there’s no evidence Some doubted that the sound could can be heard on recordings from the that it was anything other than as de- have been ordinary radio interference. flight talking about the strange sound, scribed: a constant whistling or “wooooo” Pilot Al Worden—who was not on the and whether to tell NASA about it.” sound. So what could it be? Apollo 10 mission and didn’t hear the This speculation—predictably—spurred James Oberg, a CSI fellow and vet- sound firsthand—is quoted in the show conspiracy theorists who claim the re- eran of Mission Control, told me in an as believing that “The Apollo 10 crew is cordings as the latest smoking gun evi- email: very used to the kind of noise that they should be hearing,” suggesting that had dence of a UFO coverup. [The mystery] is created by conceal- So what can we tell about the odd ing fundamental features of the event, it been interference, the crew would event? First, it’s clear that the sound— such as the highly significant fact that have clearly recognized it as such. While whatever it was—originated in the cap- the “space music” weird noises occurred it is true that the crew would be famil- sule as part of the mission, not outside during formation flying by the Apollo iar with the sound of interference, that Command Module and the Lunar doesn’t mean that all interference would it. In the 1660s, British scientist Robert Module landing vehicle, as the astro- Boyle demonstrated that sound waves nauts talked by radio from ship to ship. necessarily sound exactly the same. The must be carried by a medium (such as air), The noises were clearly some sort of fact that the astronauts didn’t recognize and therefore cannot travel in a vacuum interference between the two radios the sound and couldn’t identify its origin or near vacuum (such as space). separated by tens of kilometers, and is not surprising. As Oberg notes, “No they were heard again on the follow- astronauts had ever experienced interfer- Another curiosity is that the sound ing mission. was described as “outer-space type music,” ence with this particular hardware, espe- which is an artifact of a psychological Oberg noted that the claim that cially behind the moon, ever before.” phenomenon called “priming.” This in- NASA and the astronauts tried to hide Different conditions create different volves how our ideas about the world in- or cover up the mystery is false. In fact, sounds, and a low, monotone “wooooo” fluence our interpretations of audio and astronaut Michael Collins reported the sound coming over a radio is far more visual phenomena, especially ambiguous same sound on Apollo 11, which he likely to be interference than, say, alien stimuli. No one knows what music from described in his 1974 book Carrying the music. While providing fodder for the outer space sounds like, since no extrater- Fire: An Astronaut’s Journey. According to mystery-mongering UFO crowd (not restrial music has ever been heard or re- Oberg: to mention Pink Floyd fans), the fact is corded. Without some basis for compar- The noises were discussed in real time that the Apollo 10 mystery sound is not quite so mysterious when all the facts are ison, it’s clear what the astronauts meant by the astronauts over radio links that I was that it reminded them of composed were broadcast live, and in more detail examined.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 13 [SPECIAL REPORT

Superstition Masquerading as Science Psychiatrist Makes Devilishly Weak Case for Demonic Possession

RACHEL AMMIRATI, SCOTT O. LILIENFELD,  DEAN MKAY

n essay by Dr. Richard Gallagher, a psychiatrist who purports to be “a man ena that he cannot explain using con- of science,” was featured in the July 1, 2016, online Opinions section of the ventional knowledge. He then relates AWashington Post. The essay elicited strong reactions from many quarters; for the following observations regarding example, it has drawn over 2,800 online responses as of this writing. Although this woman’s behavior: the title of Gallagher’s essay is alarming enough—“As a psychiatrist, I diagnose She could tell some people their mental illness. Also, I help spot demonic possession”—his grasp of science is even secret weaknesses, such as undue more troubling. In his essay, Gallagher claims to be able to identify individuals pride. She knew how individuals who are demonically possessed and to help exorcists distinguish them from she’d never known had died, includ- people suffering from genuine mental illnesses. As clinical psychologists, two ing my mother and her fatal case of ovarian cancer. Six people later of whom are members of the Public Education and Media Committee of the vouched to me that, during her Society for a Science of Clinical Psychology (SSCP), we are deeply concerned exorcisms, they heard her speaking that his approach to explaining human behavior has the potential to damage the multiple languages, including Latin, profession and contribute to harmful mental health practices. completely unfamiliar to her outside her trances. At the outset, Gallagher tries to problems” such as “a medical disor- persuade readers that he is a skeptic. der; mental illnesses,” suggestibility, or He describes himself as “inclined to “fraud.” Logical Problems skepticism” and notes that he once told There are several serious inferential an exorcist, “I wasn’t likely to go in for Gallagher’s Observations problems with Gallagher’s arguments a lot of hocus pocus.” He argues that Nevertheless, Gallagher’s apparent skep- (see also Novella 2016 for a critique “respect for evidence,” among other vir- ticism dissolves once he recounts the of Gallagher’s claims). First, “undue tues, guides his approach to psychiatry, story of his first encounter with a woman pride” is hardly a rare or idiosyn- teaching, and evaluating claims con- whom he concluded was possessed by a cratic weakness. Second, Gallagher cerning demonic possession. Further, . He describes her as a “self-styled neglects to consider the possibility that he asserts, reasonably, that in most high priestess” who “called herself a witch the woman’s apparently preternatural cases behaviors attributed to possession and dressed the part, with flowing dark awareness could merely be the result can be accounted for by “more prosaic clothes and black eye shadow around to of . Cold reading consists her temples.” It is unclear if the wom- of a set of techniques, such as making an’s prototypical appearance influenced educated guesses based on population his conclusion that she was “possessed” base rates or providing highly general- (see Tversky and Kahneman 1974 for ized descriptions that apply to almost a discussion of the representativeness everyone (the P.T. Barnum effect), heuristic), but almost certainly other which are routinely exploited by for- elements of her behavior did. Shortly tune-tellers, , magicians, and after touting his many Ivy League affil- others who wish to persuade people iations (which in science should carry that they possess abili- less weight than the ability to think ties (Hyman 1977; Rowland 2001). critically and a commitment to bas- Third, some of what appears to be evi- ing arguments on high-quality data), dence of this woman’s psychic abilities Gallagher builds suspense by telling could also or alternatively reflect hot readers that he has witnessed phenom- reading, that is, obtaining informa-

14 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer tion about a target using nonparanor- secondhand eyewitness testimony. In their commitment to employ only mal means, such as reading newspaper addition to the great potential for er- standard, peer-reviewed treatments obituaries or searching the Internet. rors in memory, might those who re- that do not potentially mislead (a definite risk) or harm vulnerable Fourth, the assumption that a person port witnessing levitation be unduly patients. But careful observation of could speak multiple languages only motivated to see it? Might they be mis- the evidence presented to me in my while in a “trance” is dubious at best. interpreting another behavior, such as career has led me to believe that cer- Did Gallagher entertain the hypoth- erratic jumping, as levitation? Indeed, tain extremely uncommon cases can esis that she simply hadn’t advertised Gallagher neglects to note that skep- be explained no other way. having learned these languages previ- tics have debunked similar apparent To say that something “can be ex- ously? And how do we know that her episodes of levitation (“yogic flying”) plained no other way” suggests that Latin was especially accurate? Fifth, among people practicing transcenden- Gallagher, a “practicing Catholic” and it is unclear why, given what is widely tal meditation, demonstrating that they author of a book about demonic pos- known about the limits of eyewitness reflect little more than unimpressive session, has fallen prey to confirmation testimony (Arkowitz and Lilienfeld bias, the ubiquitous tendency to attend 2009), Gallagher would be so will- only to evidence that supports one’s be- ing to believe the “vouched” reports liefs and to neglect evidence that does of a group of eyewitnesses, especially not (Nickerson 1998). Yet confirmation those who are presumably motivated to bias is exactly what the tools of science believe in demonic possession. Logical fallacies are help us to overcome. Furthermore, it is The “self-styled high priestess” worrisome that Gallagher seems almost whom Gallagher discussed reported that also evident in many to scoff at the dedication of some men- she had connections to Satanism, going of Gallagher’s key tal health providers to using treatments so far as to identify herself as Satan’s arguments. that do not mislead vulnerable patients. “queen.” Yet the accuracy of her report Logical fallacies are also evident in should be highly suspect given psycho- many of Gallagher’s key arguments (see logical research on memory. For exam- Novella 2016). After noting that many ple, laboratory research indicates that cultures believe in possession and the individuals who report experiencing paranormal, he states, “despite vary- past lives (Meyersberg et al. 2009) and ing interpretations, multiple depictions alien abductions (Clancy et al. 2002) hops (Carroll 2011). Moreover, when of the same phenomena in astonish- display higher rates of false recall and asked why he and others have been un- ingly consistent ways offer cumulative commit more recognition errors than able to produce more compelling evi- evidence of their credibility.” Here, do comparison participants. dence of levitation, Gallagher offers an Gallagher commits the bandwagon Gallagher further offers levitation, answer that smacks of a common sign fallacy—the erroneous assumption extreme strength (which can be caused of , namely, evasion of that widespread belief in a claim con- by excess cortisol and adrenaline surg- peer review: “One cannot force these stitutes sufficient evidence for it. Or, ing through the bloodstream; Wise creatures to undergo lab studies or sub- as psychologists often say, reliability 2009), and “statements of astonish- mit to scientific manipulation; they will (consistency) should not be confused ing venom and contempt for religion” also hardly allow themselves to be easily with validity. His assertions also seem (which do not require a paranormal ex- recorded by video equipment, as skep- to court the argumentum ad antiqui- planation) as compelling evidence that tics sometimes demand.” tatem fallacy—the erroneous assump- demonic possession is real. Without Although Gallagher claims to en- tion that a belief must be true because a doubt, evidence of levitation with- gage in “careful observation of the ev- out assistance would be extraordinary; idence” related to demonic possession, it has existed across long stretches of however, we shouldn’t assume it is due his conclusions regarding the possibility time. More likely, the fact that belief to demonic possession. Notably, Gal- of being a “sophisticated psychiatrist” in the paranormal has been “astonish- lagher acknowledges that “I have not who in demons reveal his bi- ingly consistent” across cultures says witnessed a levitation myself, but half ases: more about the nature of human cog- a dozen people I work with vow that nition (i.e., that there is something they’ve seen it in the course of their Most of my scientific colleagues and about the brain that renders us sus- friends say no, because of their fre- exorcisms.” Thus, his most impressive quent contact with patients who are ceptible to supernatural beliefs) than ostensible evidence for the existence deluded about demons, their general about the existence of demons. Later, of demonic possession again relies on skepticism of the supernatural, and Gallagher commits the logical fallacy of

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 15 false equivalence—assuming that two for demonic possession, however, ap- sets the stage for other practitioners to things are the same when in fact they proaches the realm of the extraordinary. do more harm than good. At a bare are not—when comparing evidence minimum, clients deserve mental health for demonic possession to evidence for Implications for Mental Health Practice practitioners who understand the nature of science and appreciate the value of George Washington’s crossing of the Finally, it should be noted that many Delaware. He contends that “in both critical thinking skills, demonic posses- practicing mental health professionals I sion be damned. cases, written historical accounts with occasionally encounter nonpsychotic numerous sound witnesses testify to individuals who express concerns about References their accuracy.” Perhaps had historians the possibility of demonic possession, Arkowitz, H., and S.O. Lilienfeld. 2009. Why claimed that George Washington levi- , sightings of long-de- science tells us not to rely on eyewitness tated across the Delaware, Gallagher’s ceased individuals, and other implau- accounts. Scientific American Mind (January). comparison might be defensible. Yet Available online at http://www.scientific sible phenomena. Indeed, large swaths american.com/article/do-the-eyes-have-it/. even if this hypothetical scenario were of the population believe in these and Carroll, R. 2011. The Skeptic’s Dictionary: A true, it would not change the fact that related paranormal claims (Rice 2003). Collection of Strange Beliefs, Amusing Deceptions, and Dangerous Delusions. New York: John Gallagher is again relying on anecdotal At the end of his piece, Gallagher Wiley & Sons. testimony. asserts: Clancy, S.A., R.J. McNally, D.L. Schacter, et al. 2002. Memory distortion in people reporting Those who dismiss these cases unwit- abduction by aliens. Journal of Abnormal tingly prevent patients from receiv- Psychology 111: 455–461. ing the help they desperately require, Hyman, R. 1977. Cold reading: How to con- After initially advertising either by failing to recommend them vince strangers that you know all about them. his “skeptical” approach for psychiatric treatment (which most The Zetetic [S I] 1: 18–37. clearly need) or by not informing Lebow, J. 2006. Research for the Psychotherapist: to evaluating claims of their spiritual ministers that some- From Science to Practice. New York: Taylor & Francis. thing beyond a mental or other ill- possession, Gallagher Meyersberg, C.A., R. Bogdan, D.A. Gallo, et ness seems to be the issue. For any al. 2009 False memory propensity in people commits the common person of science or faith, it should reporting recovered memories of past lives. be impossible to turn one’s back on a Journal of Abnormal Psychology 118: 399–404. error of confusing skep- tormented soul. Nickerson, R.S. 1998. Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises. ticism with cynicism. To the contrary, rigorous skepticism Review of General Psychology 2: 175–220. is not equivalent to denying a suffering Novella, S. 2016. A psychiatrist falls for exor- cism. NEUROLOGICblog. Available online individual care. Furthermore, as a psy- at http://theness.com/neurologicablog/ chiatrist, Gallagher is not obliged to index.php/a-psychiatrist-falls-for-exorcism/. confirm or disconfirm his client’s belief Rice, T.W. 2003. Believe it or not: Religious and other paranormal beliefs in the United After initially advertising his “skep- in demonic possession. Rather, his job tical” approach to evaluating claims States. Journal for the Scientific Study of is to improve his or her psychological Religion 42: 95–106. of possession, Gallagher commits the adjustment. Some well-meaning mental Rowland, I. 2001. The Full Facts on Cold Reading common error of confusing skepticism (2nd ed.). London, England: issuu.com. health professionals, in an effort to en- Tversky, A., and D. Kahneman. 1974. Judgment with cynicism. He states, “while the hance their clients’ functioning, “join the under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. American Psychiatric Association has resistance” by engaging in discussions Science 185: 1124–1131. no official opinion on these affairs, the Wise, J. 2009. When fear makes us super- regarding the veracity of their claims, human: Can an extreme response to fear field (like society at large) is full of un- however fantastical they may be (Lebow give us strength we would not have under persuadable skeptics and occasionally 2006). At some point, however, respon- normal circumstances? Scientific American doctrinaire materialists who are often Mind (December). Available online at sible psychotherapists should begin to http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ oddly vitriolic in their opposition to all explore ways in which the client may extreme-fear-superhuman/. things spiritual.” Unwillingness to en- hold such beliefs while still function- tertain a remarkable claim (cynicism) ing adaptively. In other cases, therapists differs greatly from demanding evi- may need to encourage their clients to Rachel Ammirati is assistant professor, dence that is as remarkable as the claim consider alternative explanations for Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral (skepticism). A skeptical thinker could, their bewildering thoughts and experi- Sciences, Emory University. Scott O. Lilien- in principle, be persuaded to consider ences. By endorsing a set of paranormal feld is Samuel Candler Dobbs Professor, the possibility of demonic possession beliefs, embracing what is more akin to Department of Psychology, Emory Univer- sity. Dean McKay is professor, Department A-10 jets like those whose flight with their bright formation lights on caused the first sighting. if the data were overwhelming. Noth- an antiscientific mind-set, and going be- ing that Gallagher offers as evidence yond joining with the client, Gallagher of Psychology, Fordham University.

16 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer INTERVIEW] Michael Mann and the Climate Wars MARK BOSLOUGH

Physicist and CSI Fellow Mark Boslough interviewed noted climatologist and geophysicist Michael Mann, who will be speaking at CSICon Las Vegas.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 17 cause deniers mistook you for easy pickings?

M: That’s right. Interestingly, much of the focus was on me alone, rather than my two senior coauthors, Ray Bradley and Malcolm Hughes. I suspect the reason was twofold. I was the first author and was quoted in most of the media coverage, so I was the scientist most directly associated with the research. But additionally, I was viewed as far more vul- nerable to attack, as I was only a postdoc at the time, a far cry from the job security of a tenured faculty position—which both of my coauthors had. The denial ma- chine wanted to bring me down, to destroy my professional Michael Mann career before it even got going, to make an example of me for other younger scientists who might too consider speaking MARK BOSLOUGH: To anyone who has followed the “climate out about climate change. In The Hockey Stick and the Cli- wars,” your name is a household word. Deniers even coined mate Wars, I refer to this as the “Serengeti Strategy.” the phrase “Mann-made global warming” in an attempt to make it synonymous with their belief that global warming is BOSLOUGH: Seems like this strategy backfired spectacularly an elaborate hoax. From my vantage point as a scientist and in your case. Have they successfully destroyed anyone else’s skeptic, you seem to be the person they love to hate more career? Are they still pursuing the Serengeti method, or did than anyone else except perhaps Al Gore. Why do you think they learn their lesson? they have singled you out from the scientific community as their poster child for sustained vilification? M: Well, yes—I like to think the hyenas tangled with the wrong zebra. M  M: Well—there are certainly other leading climate But unfortunately, this tactic continues to be deployed. scientists who have been frequent targets of climate change Over the past year, the Republican chair of the House deniers. But I suppose there are a few things that are differ- Science Committee, Lamar Smith of Texas, a recipient of ent in my case. For one, I am directly associated with one considerable fossil fuel money, has initiated a campaign of the most prominent graphs in all of climate science, the of persecution against leading climate scientists at NOAA “Hockey Stick” curve that my coauthors and I published back and elsewhere, abusing his authority by serving them with in the late 1990s. That curve became an icon in the climate vexatious subpoenas demanding their internal email corre- change debate. It told a simple story—that the warming of spondences and other such items, simply because he and the planet we’re experiencing is unprecedented. That made the fossil fuel interests who fund his campaigns don’t like it a threat to fossil fuel interests and, as I detail in my book the conclusions of their research. This has sent a collective The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars, it made me a direct chill throughout the entire climate science community, and target of the industry-funded climate change denial machine. it speaks to the fact that the Serengeti Strategy is very much The Eye of Sauron was fixed on me. Rather than shrink from still alive and well. the battle, I chose to fight back—by defending my work in the public sphere and by devoting myself to public outreach and education. That no doubt further antagonized climate change BOSLOUGH: You say deniers. Ultimately, they provided me a platform for inform- ing the public discourse over what is arguably the greatest challenge we have faced as a civilization. I consider that a blessing, not a curse.

BOSLOUGH: As you say, you weren’t the only author of the 1998 Mann, Bradley, and Hughes “Hockey Stick” paper that made such an impact. You were just an up-and-coming postdoc and your coauthors were already prominent. I was Republican chair of the House taking a paleoclimatology course at the time and had never Science Committee, Lamar Smith. heard of you, but we were using Bradley’s textbook. A couple of years ago I attended a dinner for the Climate Science Republican Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma. Legal Defense Fund, and two guests sitting at my table in- troduced themselves as “Et and Al.” They were Bradley and Hughes, and the joke was a reference to their having been they are still going after leading climate scientists. But as I eclipsed by you. Do you think you were the main target of pointed out in my NCSE review of your Hockey Stick book, Sauron’s initial wrath because you were first author or be- even hyenas know to attack the smallest and weakest mem-

18 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer bers of a group. Is Smith really trying to destroy these sci- cally motivated attacks. It’s unfortunate that this is now part entists, or is he just trying to waste their time and discredit of the job description of doing science, but it’s a good thing them in the eyes of his campaign donors and scientifically that scientists are recognizing this and rising to the occasion. illiterate constituents? The stakes are simply too great—we cannot lose the battle against the forces of unreason and inaction. The silver lining M : Evil is as evil does. The motive, in the end, is personal is that we are now creating a whole generation of scientist destruction. It is to make cautionary examples of individual communicators who are not only doing great science but are scientists for others who might think about playing a promi- effectively communicating the science and its implications to nent role in the public discourse over climate change. Here’s the general public. what will happen to you if you too put your head above the parapet! Now, whether it is the politicians like Lamar Smith, James Inhofe, or Ted Cruz themselves who are driven by this BOSLOUGH: Did I hear that you have motive, or whether they are just being loyal foot-soldiers of another book coming out? the fossil fuel interests who have this motive is, in the end, M : The Madhouse Effect represents a collaboration be- in my view immaterial. We must judge them by their actions, tween myself and the Pulitzer Prize–winning editorial cartoon- and we must recognize them for the threat that they repre- ist of the Washington Post, Tom Toles. We attempt to use sent to society. humor and satire, as embodied in Tom’s cartoons over the years (and a number of new cartoons exclusive to the book) BOSLOUGH: Maybe there’s a selection bias involved in my to ridicule the absurdity of modern day climate change deni- perceptions. Am I only aware of the fittest survivors whose alism. There is no better tool than satire to expose hypocrisy, reputations within the scientific community were actually and nowhere is there greater hypocrisy than the ongoing enhanced? Are there examples of climate scientists who campaign by fossil fuel interests and their hired hands to couldn’t take it and quit? Or is it more subtle, with young deny the well-established science of human-caused climate scientists dissuaded from entering the field or keeping their change. Indeed, climate change denial would be humorous heads down in a way that makes them invisible? if the stakes weren’t so great. The book takes the form of an annotated compendium of Tom’s cartoons, which we use to M : I suspect the real impact of the attacks is more diffi- explore everything from the fundamentals of science and how cult to detect. On the one hand, scientists coming into the it works to the scientific evidence behind climate change, the field now appear to be more mobilized, more willing to con- predicted impacts, the campaign to deny climate change, front misinformation and disinformation head on, more will- the hypocrisy of denialism, the dangers of geoengineering, ing to engage in the public discourse, whether through social and, finally, the path forward. Ironically enough, we end on a media or other means. But what I worry about are the young cautiously optimistic, forward-looking note. scientists we are losing to other fields, scientists confronted by a choice between those areas of science perceived as “safe” (e.g., dark matter, quarks, and black holes) and “un- BOSLOUGH: Since this interview is for skeptics, I have to ask safe” (e.g., climate change and other areas of environmental one more thing. Why do some members of the media still research) from attacks by vested interests and the politicians refer to individuals who reject the scientific method and who do their bidding. mainstream climate science as “skeptics” even though they embrace the pseudoscience of denialism? How can we edu- cate the general public about what skepticism really means? BOSLOUGH: I’m guessing you had no formal training in how to deal with political assaults on your science and had to learn M : Yes—this continues to irk many of us. We need to it on the fly. Can those skills be taught to young scientists restore the term skeptic to its rightful place in the scientific who are working in fields that make them vulnerable to discourse. In The Madhouse Effect, we mock—with a great attack? new Tom Toles cartoon exclusive to the book—the laughable manner in which climate change deniers attempt to claim the M : Indeed, I did not. They don’t train you for this in grad- mantle of Galileo, when they are the very opposite of Galileo, uate school science programs. Perhaps we need to add a or Einstein, or any of the great paradigm breakers in scientific boot camp experience to our graduate training. Not only can history. Galileo was a talented, well-trained, mainstream sci- we teach young scientists how to function in the increasingly entist, versed enough in prevailing scientific thinking to iden- hostile environment they may find themselves, we must tify subtle holes therein. He wasn’t a crank, so poorly versed teach them to do so. Fortunately, there is growing educa- in the science that he didn’t understand the basics—that’s Republican Senator James Inhofe of Oklahoma. tional infrastructure for this within the scientific community. what most climate change deniers are. Faux skepticism, i.e., At meetings like the American Geophysical Union annual fall denialism masquerading as skepticism, is another one of meeting—the largest member society in the earth sciences— those aspects of the climate change debate that is so absurd there are now numerous workshops and sessions focused on that satire and ridicule is really the only way to address it science communication, the law, and other subjects that are properly. And that’s what we do in The Madhouse Effect. I critical to the defense of science from politically or ideologi-

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 19 [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is a skeptical demonologist. His many books include The Science of Miracles and The Science of Ghosts.

Dispelling Demons: Detective Work at The Conjuring House

he horror movie The Conjuring thirty to forty years. Then there was denly appear on their property, while (2013) focused on the “demons” the influence of Ed and Lorraine War- others make harassing phone calls at T that allegedly plagued the Perron ren—“demonologist” and “clairvoyant,” night. There have even been Internet family—Roger, Carolyn, and their respectively—who made a dubious ca- discussions about destroying the eigh- five daughters—at their Rhode Island reer of convincing such troubled peo- teenth-century residence because “it’s farmhouse. The movie was a major ple that they were plagued by demons so full of evil”—among other outrages box-office success. while seeking book deals and encour- (Sutcliffe 2015–2016). In an article in the S I- aging their coauthors, some admit, to Norma invited me to visit her eigh-  (Nickell 2014) and in the book fabricate elements to make the books teenth-century property in mid-June American Hauntings (Bartholomew and “scary” (Nickell 2014, 23). 2016 to see for myself much of the rest

There have even been Internet discussions about destroying the eighteenth-century residence because “it’s so full of evil”—among other outrage.

Figure 1. Norma Sutcliffe stands at her historic home, now made notorious by the movie The Conjuring (2013), which bears little resemblance to the truth. The barn in the background never saw a hanging. of the evidence behind the fictionalized and fantasized story. Guided by her, I Nickell 2015, 57–77), I analyzed the Norma Sutcliffe, who with her hus- toured the historic Arnold-Richardson Perrons’ claims of demonic activity and band, Gerry, acquired the property in house and property, visited old ceme- showed that they were consistent with 1987 and has lived there until the pres- teries in the area, and searched archival the effects of strong winds, mispercep- ent (Figure 1), reports no demonic ac- records in the Harrisville town hall and tions, schoolgirl pranks, vivid dreams, tivity. Yet the two have been plagued library—all helping to further dispel simple suggestion, role-playing, and by a “Conjuring-instigated siege of their the falsehoods and exaggerations that other factors—including one child’s property,” according to legal papers have been used to promote this utterly having had an imaginary playmate— filed in their lawsuit against Warner bogus case of demonic activity and and the effects of memory after some Bros. Studios. Uninvited people sud- demon possession.

20 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Revealing Tour occasion, two girls were playing with the next move.” She concluded: “It was Norma walked me through the historic a board in an attic room when far more than infestation. It was man- house—from cellar to attic—where I they were unaccountably locked in— ifestation.” In time, “inexplicably, the saw the locations of many occurrences ostensibly by evil entities (Perron 2013, phantom flies disappeared,” she said, reported by the Perrons that were sup- 24–25). Actually, the door has the same but years later Lorraine Warren “would posed to give evidence of demonic type of latch as the cellar door, and if arrive and explain that the flies were presences: the door had been pulled unthinkingly there with purpose and reason, as the Dark Passages. With what the Per- or had been allowed to swing after harbingers of things to come.” Andrea rons would come to think was an omi- the girls entered, the latch bar would would call them “the devil’s pets” (Per- nous warning, the previous owner told bounce upward as the door closed and ron 2011, 83–94, 265–266). In fact, Roger, “For the sake of your family, then drop down and engage, “locking” clues to the real explanation are found leave the lights on at night” (Perron the girls inside the room. No demons in her own words (“winter,” “clusters,” 2011, 45). But Norma found that a were needed. etc.), which indicate that the infestation light would have been needed down- Dead People in Walls. Young Cindy was probably caused by housefly-looka- stairs so family members could get Perron claimed she could feel the spir- likes called “cluster flies” that behave as to the bathroom in the middle of the its in her bedroom, insisting there were night from their far-flung bedrooms described (see “Ask the Orkin Man” on two floors—requiring treks through 2016). They are explained by science, multiple rooms that were dangerously not demonology. dark. The man obviously had given Kitchen Phenomena. Several suppos- practical advice—not a warning of su- edly supernatural events occurred in the pernatural entities, which, in fact, he kitchen (now the dining room), “Con- made no mention of. sidered one of the most active rooms Apparitions in Carolyn’s Bedroom in the house” (Perron 2011, 448). For (now a study). Carolyn Perron once example, Andrea once witnessed a pot stirred from sleep to feel a “presence” of meatballs “go flying off the surface of and see a grotesque female figure loom- the stove without the assistance” of her ing above her while she was “immobi- father. Actually, her mother disagreed, lized” (Perron 2011, 185–187; Johnson and in fact Roger Perron was at the 2009, 70–71). Clearly, she experienced time “seething with anger” and had not a common waking dream that occurs only “touched” the pot handle but even between sleep and wakefulness, coupled followed up by “kicking the pot past his with sleep paralysis since her body was daughter.” It seems absurd therefore still in the sleep mode. And this was Figure 2. Norma Sutcliffe points out the cellar well where— to postulate a “kitchen witch” (Perron not the only waking dream to occur according to unfounded accusations—Bathsheba Sherman 2013, 235–238). among the Perrons (Nickell 2014; Bar- supposedly drowned her children. In fact, she never lived in the house. On another occasion, Carolyn started tholomew and Nickell 2015). peeling an orange when she saw blood Opening Cellar Door. This had a trickling from it. She first thought she habit of partially opening during the had nicked herself with the knife but night, “Even after the family remem- “seven dead soldiers buried in the wall” could find no wound. To keep her bered locking it” (Johnson 2009, 48). (Perron 2013, 279). However, the walls youngest daughter from wandering in Also when someone walked past the were only seven inches thick—we mea- and becoming frightened, she hastily door, it might suddenly open behind cleaned the blood from the sink and the person’s back (Perron 2011, 149). sured—so that could never have hap- floor and threw the “bloody orange” in Norma explained that the door was a pened. (She also perceived “a whole the trash (Johnson 2009, 545–555). The bit warped so that the antique latch did bunch of people eating in our dining not fully engage. Thus, temperature room” and several “little ghosts”—“na- most likely explanation here, I think, is fluctuations (such as the house’s wood tive children”—playing in a nearby pine that she had mistakenly gotten hold of a and metal cooling at night) could cause grove [Perron 2013, 69–70, 164–165].) California blood orange. Some of these the latch to release and the door to pop Her claims were surely only the imag- can resemble ordinary oranges but yield open. (It was never actually “locked,” inings of a child who exhibited many of a deep, blood-colored juice—hence, the only latched.) Or when someone walked the traits associated with fantasy prone- fruit’s name (“Blood Oranges” 2016). by, depressing the floorboard, the latch ness (Nickell 2014, 23). Many more examples could be could again release and the door open. Fly Infestation! Andrea Perron wrote given, but these are sufficient to show Norma and Gerry had the door fixed pages about “houseflies” in their home, how the Perrons repeatedly suggested after they moved in and discovered the appearing unaccountably “in the middle supernatural explanations for mundane problem (Sutcliffe 2015–2016). of deep winter.” There were “clusters of events—even before they found them- Locking Attic-Room Door. On one them huddled together, as if plotting selves under the spell of the Warrens.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 21 Deaths Multiplied 1 Burrillville town records give the cause 1911)—not at the Arnold-Richardson Numerous people have allegedly died of death as “paralysis.” Her obituary in house as alleged by Perron (2014, 182). tragic deaths at the Arnold-Richardson The Burrillville Gazette (May 29, 1885) Still other alleged deaths on the his- house—an implication being that their corroborates the cause as “a sudden toric house property have no known basis unrequited spirits haunt the place or attack of paralysis”—almost certainly in fact. These include the infant whom that they have somehow been trans- a stroke. Her funeral service was con- Bathsheba Sherman allegedly killed, formed into malevolent entities or ducted by Rev. A.H. Granger, a Baptist the wound “presumably inflicted with demonic presences. But what are the minister, one of various facts belying a needle” through the base of the skull facts about the deaths of the people the claim that she was a witch. (Perron 2011, 384–385; Johnson 2009, allegedly involved? Historical research But if Bathsheba Sherman did not 51), and one or more of Bathsheba’s reveals the eye-opening truth. hang herself in the Arnold-Richardson own children, whom she is “rumored” The central figure is a reputed witch barn, maybe it was instead Susan Ar- to have drowned in “the basement well” named Bathsheba Sherman. Based on nold, age ninety-three, as later claimed (Figure 2) (Johnson 2009, 51). amateurish “research” of local records by Carolyn Perron (Perron 2011, xx, However, there is no available docu- and lore and later confirmations by 102). Alas, despite the Arnold sur- mented record of Bathsheba (or anyone “psychics,” Carolyn Perron focused name, her suicide was at her home else- else, for that matter) having killed an on Bathsheba, allegedly accused but where on Harrisville Road. According infant. Had any such documentation acquitted of murdering an infant as to a newspaper clipping (“Burrillville” been known, it would likely have been

Numerous people have allegedly died tragic deaths at the Arnold-Richardson house. But what are the facts about the deaths of the people allegedly involved? Historical research reveals the eye-opening truth.

Figure 3. Author researching a compendium of deaths, known as The Black Book of Burrillville. (Author’s photos) 1866), Susan was the fifty-year-old recorded in what is known as The Black wife of John Arnold. She locked her- Book of Burrillville, a list of the unusual self in an attic storeroom where she was deaths in the township of Burrillville, part of a ritual sacrifice, “a deal struck found hanging “from a wardrobe hook from 1806, compiled by historians with the devil” (Perron 2011, 298–299, with a very small cord.”2 (Matthewson n.d.). 321–325). It was even said that Bath- Other Arnold deaths wrongly as- In light of what we have seen so far, sheba had hanged herself in the barn signed to the famous house include consider the following quotation—in near the Perron home (Johnson 2009, those of Prudence Arnold in 1849 and which every single statement but one 43–46, 51; Perron 2011, 404). The Johnny Arnold (son of Edwin, who is false: time came when the “demons” were did once own the property) in 1911 The Black Book of Burrillville, the consolidated, when “Mrs. Warren re- (Johnson 2009, 50; Perron 2011, xxi). town’s former public records book, ferred to the God-forsaken spirit as the Prudence was not yet twelve when reveals that over the course of its lone demonic presence in their house, she was murdered—her throat slashed existence the property has been host calling her by name: Bathsheba” (Per- by a jilted suitor—at the home of her to two suicides by hanging, one sui- cide by poison, the rape and murder ron 2011, 328). stepparents in Uxbridge, Massachu- of eleven-year-old Prudence Arnold In fact, as we shall see later, no re- setts (“The Inquest” 1849; “Uxbridge by a farmhand, two drownings,3 cords are known to confirm any of the Tragedy” 1849). And a despondent and the passing of four men who allegations against Bathsheba Sherman. fifty-seven-year-old John A. “Johnny” froze to death, in addition to other She is buried next to her husband, Jud- Arnold committed suicide by taking “a tragic losses of life. (“The Conjuring Filming Location” 2016) son, in the Riverside Cemetery in Har- dose of paris green” (commonly used risville, where her tombstone records as an insecticide and rodent poison) One man, Jarvis Smith, did die of her date of death as May 25, 1885. The “at his home near Tarkiln” (“Obituary” exposure on the property on March 20,

22 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer JOE NICKELL INVESTIGATIVE FILES]

1901 (Matthewson n.d.). Otherwise, that has been reported to enter houses, a lot of time upstairs (Perron 2014, none of the previously listed deaths sometimes through chimneys (“Ball 183–184): “Day after day, for hours occurred there; neither was Prudence Lightning” 2016). and hours she waited, speaking to him Arnold raped, judging from the official Elsewhere in volume three we read gently. . . . How could April bid him report (“The Inquest” 1849). And the of an interesting apparition of a woman a fond farewell if he refused to come Black Book—which I personally exam- that appeared only to Christine at night make his presence known? In spite of ined from beginning to end (Figure and always in a window as an accompa- her prompting he was a no show on the 3)—is not “the town’s former public niment to her reflection. She found it stage of life and afterlife.” records book.” disturbing. Andrea gives a secondhand What had happened? Such entities The problem is not the Black Book account (Perron 2014, 13–14): are unknown to science—except as the of course but of numerous shoddy re- . . . [S]he’d glance at a window, only familiar “imaginary companion” with searchers compiling bogus claims, to see the woman standing behind whom certain young children interact misinterpretations made by them and her own reflection in the glass. The as if the entity is real. The phenome- others, and attributing the false infor- spirit was always the same. So much non seems to be rather more frequent taller than the youngster, she stood mation to sources they have misread or out in the crowd. . . . No optical among lonely or unsociable children or never seen. illusions involved, no mistaking it those who have difficulty in their family for something else beyond the glass, relationships (Goldenson 1970, I: 597– Clues at Hand this was an entity. As if standing 598). April now says she often “felt like at the mirror, there she was, right an abandoned child” who had to spend Volume three of Andrea Perron’s behind the kid, gazing at the glass much of her time alone. Also, “our wordy, repetitious, self-published tril- with her . . . just watching Christine mother appeared depressed most of ogy, House of Darkness House of Light watching her. the time and our father was just angry” (2014), continues to relate anecdotes Having researched something like (Perron 2014, 339). It seems that, as from the Perrons’ residence in the this before, I think it was indeed an typically happens with imaginary com- 1970s. The accounts provide clues as to “optical illusion”: a double reflection panions who become outgrown as the what really took place. of the girl, despite Perron’s haste to child finds different ways of meeting In the first volume (Perron 2011, convince readers otherwise. Note that his or her emotional needs (Golden- 243–244), much was made of a “solid the second image was that of a female, son 1970, I: 598), “Oliver” simply went blue tubular beam of light” that shot taller, and always fixed in the same po- away and could no more be reclaimed down the chimney into a room, then sition relative to her. Everyone has seen than April could herself turn back time retraced its route and disappeared. Car- his or her image reflected in a window, and become that little girl again. olyn “would speculate about the effects especially at night. Actually, both the of the light for many years to come.” front and back surfaces of the glass Conclusions Hearing about it, Lorraine Warren in- reflect an image, but these are usually sisted that, writes Perron, it was super- so close together as to go unnoticed. The evidence mounts that the Perrons natural, “manifesting as a beam of Cos- Seeing a reflection from an angle could were a dysfunctional family. They were mic Light traveling through space and enhance the separation, but an even not preyed upon by “demons” (whose time, then entering a specific portal; more intense effect can be produced by existence is not supported by science), delivering a message received by mortal wavy old glass such as that at the Ar- but rather they believed in such due to souls who have witnessed its affect [sic] nold-Richardson House. I had occa- religious and paranormal propaganda, yet remain unable to discern its mean- sion to duplicate and photograph such as evident throughout Perron’s books. ing”—perhaps a “blessing” or a “curse” an effect to explain Abraham Lincoln’s The merest noise or other odd happen- (Perron 2011, 244). having once famously seen his double ing was treated with the illogic of what Reportedly, the phenomenon hap- image in a mirror (Nickell 2001, photo is known as an argument from igno- pened twice more (Perron 2011, 244). on p. 11). rance: “We don’t know what caused Current resident Norma Sutcliffe also Quite another entity was partial it, so it must have been paranormal.” once saw a blue light shoot across the to April, the youngest of the Per- A “demonologist” and a “clairvoyant,” bedroom, but she is quick to say that ron girls, who was only five when the Ed and Lorraine Warren, were anxious she does not attribute any such odd family moved into the house. Sup- to convince them that demons—and a happening to the supernatural. And in posedly, April often communicated book deal—were lurking in the shad- volume three, Perron (2014, 332) now telepathically with a little boy named ows. In the final volume of her trilogy, concludes that—while the light was the Oliver whom she could find “always Andrea Perron (2014, 216) tells how “most amazing thing” she ever saw in upstairs in the chimney closet.” She Lorraine Warren eventually proposed the old house—it was really “a tube of believes he is still there (Perron 2013, just such a deal to her mother Carolyn. blue lightning.” That is consistent with 93–99). However, during their final Carolyn’s five daughters appear to the rare phenomenon of ball lightning week at the house in 1980, April spent have followed her lead: with the judg-

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 23 Notes ments and imaginations of children, Goldenson, Robert M. 1970. The Encyclopedia of they were soon competing for much- 1. The death register (vol. 1A, 1854–1900) Human Behavior, in two vols. Garden City, gives her name as Bathsheba Greene, apparently NY: Doubleday & Co. needed attention, reporting every “de- after a later marriage, but she is buried beside “The Inquest.” 1849. Inquest held at Uxbridge, her first husband, Judson Sherman, with his monic” occurrence. When their father MA, by coroner Aaron Burden; text in surname. Roger doubted much of the phenom- 2. The determined woman had in the room “Uxbridge Tragedy” 1849. ena and denounced the Warrens as with her a gun, knife, and vial of mercury. Also Johnson, Keith. 2009. Paranormal Realities. “a pair of two-bit charlatans” (Per- she had laid out on a bed in another room “all the Privately printed: New England Anomalies clothes for her burial.” Research (i.e., Keith and Sandy Johnson). ron 2013, 263), Carolyn felt that he 3. Andrea Perron (2011, 472–475) refers to Matthewson, J.C. N.d. The Black Book of questioned her integrity and the girls two Bakers, a father and son, who “reportedly Burrillville. Manscript “copied from the drowned on this property.” However, the Black original by John Smith.” Updated in 1999. stood “squarely in her camp” (Perron Book (Matthewson n.d.) relates only a single 2011, 112; 2013, 195). Eventually, he Baker drowning, the suicide of Chester A. in Lodged in archives at Jesse M. Smith Memorial Library, Harrisville, RI. seemed—at least after suffering es- 1949, “in Harrison Mill Pond.” Nickell, Joe. 2001. Real-Life X-Files. Lexington: trangement and divorce—to acquiesce References University Press of Kentucky. in favor of family harmony. ———. 2014. “The Conjuring: Ghosts? “Ask the Orkin Man.” 2016. Available online at It is no wonder that hysteria came to www.orkin.com/ask-the-orkin-man/large- Poltergeist? Demons?” S I reign and “demons” were ever-present, slow-moving-flies/; accessed July 5, 2016. 38(2) (March/April): 22–25. “Ball Lightning.” 2016. Available online at “Obituary of John A. Arnold.” 1911. Unidentified or that things have since quieted with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ball_light- clipping (Sutcliffe 2015–2016). the thirty-year tenure of Norma Sut- ning; accessed July 15, 2016. Perron, Andrea. 2011. House of Darkness cliffe, who does not believe in demons. Bartholomew, Robert E., and Joe Nickell. House of Light, Vol. 1. Bloomington, IN: 2015. American Hauntings: The True Stories AuthorHouse. Still, the quiet has been disrupted by the behind Hollywood’s Scariest Movies—from The Hollywoodization of the old farmstead Exorcist to The Conjuring. Santa Barbara, ———. 2013. House of Darkness House of Light, Vol. 2. Bloomington, IN: AuthorHouse. and the misrepresentation of truth by CA: Praeger, 55–77. “Blood Oranges.” 2016. Available online at ———. 2014. House of Darkness House of Light, shoddy research, misperceptions, exag- www.calif-citrusspecialties.com/blood_ Vol. 3. Bloomington, IN: AuthorHouse. geration, probable mischief, suggestion, orange.htm; accessed July 7, 2016. Sutcliffe, Norma. 2015–2016. Communications and more, including the power of the “Burrillville.” 1866. Unidentified newspaper with author including in person at her home clipping (Sutcliffe 2015–2016). June 15–16, 2016, together with sheaf of almighty dollar. We see that the major “The Conjuring Filming Location.” 2016. photocopied and annotated documents. “demons” were Ignorance, Superstition, Available online at https:roadtrippers.com/ us/harrisville-ri/points-of-interest/the-con- “Uxbridge Tragedy.” 1849. Clipping from and Greed, and they still hold some in Woonsocket Patriot, week of February 9, 1849 I juring-filming-location?lat=40.80972&l- their power. ng=-96.67528&z=5; accessed July 7, 2016. (Sutcliffe 2015–2016).

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24 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER Sheaffer’s “Psychic Vibrations” column has appeared in the S  I for forty years. His new book, Bad UFOs, is available through his blog, BadUFOs.com. His website is www.debunker.com.

MUFON Gets into the Bigfoot Business

he Mutual UFO Network UFOs to discover the true nature of the It serves up a healthy dose of Bigfoot, (MUFON) is the largest and best- phenomenon, with an eye towards sci- along with UFOs and other “myster- T known organization of its kind in entific breakthroughs, and improving ies,” with a little observational astron- the United States (and probably in the life on our planet; and III. Educate the omy mixed in. They are already being world). Founded in Illinois in 1969 by public on the UFO phenomenon and its filmed for a History Channel show Walt Andrus and others, it was orig- potential impact on society.” about Dugway, Utah, allegedly the site inally known as the Midwest UFO You’ll find nothing in there about of secret underground bunkers, convoys Network. MUFON is now riding Bigfoot, Nessie, or other crypto-beasts. of mysterious black sedans, mysterious high with its show Hangar 1 on the Strickler, noting the sensationalism and lights, etc. Paranormal claims abound in so-called History Channel, which even fabrications in MUFON’s Hangar 1, Utah, and I suspect Unexplained Utah most serious UFO proponents reject notes, “It doesn’t add to the organiza- will become a major player in the For- due to its sensationalist approach and tion’s credibility when we learn from a tean game. deceptive use of fabricated government MUFON state director and one of the * * * documents (see this column, January/ presenters on Hangar 1 [John Ventre February 2016). of Pennsylvania] that the missing Ma- Patty Greer (no relation to mega-UFO MUFON has now announced that laysia Airlines Flight 370 was abducted promoter Steven Greer) might be called it is getting into the Bigfoot business. by extraterrestrials or makes a statement the “Queen of Crop Circles” these days. MUFON’s executive director, Jan C. on a radio talk show that he believes She gave a talk at this year’s Contact in Harzan, announced that its West Vir- malevolent extraterrestrials are actually the Desert UFO Conference, set in the ginia state director and longtime Big- demons.” middle of California’s Mojave Desert foot investigator Fred Saluga has been Strickler, obviously bristling at his during the hottest time of the year (with named to the new position of “Cryptoid new competitors, concludes: much of it outdoors at a time when Studies Coordinator” (MUFON people nearby Palm Springs was reporting 115 love titles and positions; they have cre- By adding other aspects of investigat- degrees). Greer posted a photo to her ated lots of them). Harzan said, “We re- ing the paranormal, it seems to me, and others who have raised doubts, Facebook page on June 12 showing her alized, over time, that a small percentage that MUFON seeks to increase speaking on the outdoor stage, flanked of our cases mention odd creatures that membership and revenue by becom- by two security men. What gives? She cannot be identified. . . . Adding Cryp- ing the Mutual Unidentified Flying wrote: Object and Other Unexplained toid Studies to our investigation strategy It was my first time pulling a is part of MUFON’s on-going goal to Phenomena Network. Every serious paranormal and cryptid enthusi- ‘Steven Greer move’ with security. expand how we review and study UFO ast should take note. Do you want Unfortunately, the people that are cases. Please welcome me in congratu- MUFON to stockpile any evidence, hiding my first 4 films from the lating Fred for taking on this important anecdotal or physical, that would world were there and they were quite creepy. We had armed security, mind study” (http://goo.gl/U3Rv2S). otherwise be directed to dedicated control security, and psychics throughout Fortean researchers and investigators? But some people are not too happy the crowd. Many of them had cam- I say HELL NO! Hey MUFON . . . about this. Lon Strickler, author of the eras and were watching/filming them. stick to flying saucers and spacemen! We are all still wondering why gaia/ Fortean Blog Phantoms & Monsters, (http://goo.gl/yG90qD) points out that MUFON’s mission gaiam and scientology were allowed statement states: “I. Investigate UFO And in other MUFON-related news, to be there? This is a spiritual event! (Emphasis added.) sightings and collect the data in the its former Utah state director, Erika MUFON Database for use by research- Lukes, has resigned and formed her own Her comments about a “Steven Greer ers worldwide; II. Promote research on organization named Unexplained Utah. move” refers to certain “security theater”

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 25 tricks at Contact in the Desert in 2013. while paranormal researchers should ularly interesting (and telling) to see Steven Greer showed up with armed se- be saddened by the unfortunate pass- how the protection and ecology of the ing of the two men, it is unlikely that curity guards, who proceeded to stand in they were victims of an organized planet ‘appears’ in the testimonies of the the exits while he gave his speech. Not movement to purge the field. children when Mack questioned them, to be outdone, David Wilcock brought while this theme was not present in the Noory closes with the reminder that not only his own guards but also what narratives collected by Cynthia Hind.” “Coast Insiders can check out the he claimed was a bomb-sniffing dog, This strongly suggests that Mack was and Wilcock’s guards actually prevented 3/12/2014 edition of C2C where disclo- sure activist Stephen Bassett discussed “leading” the children to create narra- people from leaving during his talk! (See tives matching Mack’s own beliefs and this column, January/February 2014.) his concerns over a spate of prominent concerns. Lator had observed in 2011 Given the degree of paranoia rampant UFO researchers dying due to fast-act- that “The boy is coaxed to imagine a in , many attendees take such ing cancers.” (For more on Bassett and rationale, then transpose it into the real charades seriously, not recognizing them “Disclosure,” see this column, Septem- world in the next question. A manipu- as silly theatrical stunts intended to cre- ber/October 2016.) ate the illusion that certain speakers are At this year’s Contact in the Desert, lation that is hidden by the editing of in constant danger because they “know much of the discussion involved Blue short sequences in the video. John Mack too much about flying saucers” (or per- Avians. David Wilcock has been pro- is caught red-handed encouraging the haps about crop circles). moting the wild stories of alleged con- child to confabulate, integrate imagi- But it seems that the evil Men in tactee Corey Goode, who claims that nation into reality.” (More details about Black (or whoever) have failed to squelch there not only is a secret space program this incident, and sources, are on my Bad Ms. Greer’s latest film, Crop Circle Dia- but it is fighting a secret war with evil UFOs blog at http://goo.gl/8ck3Wj.) ries, which she is now promoting: aliens (http://goo.gl/IznWtn). Giant Fernandez notes that while much re- blue spheres, some as large as Neptune search has gone into developing proce- Journey to the UK epicenter of (and others as small as Earth’s moon) the Crop Circle phenomena with dures for interviewing children, neither have been entering our solar system. award-winning filmmaker Patty Hind nor Mack use anything resembling They are inhabited by Blue Avian beings Greer. After visiting dozens of UK proper procedures: Crop Circles she had a “Contact” (more accurately, Blue Avian Aliens), experience in a 2007 formation that and they are up to no good. As if we The child must be interviewed indi- altered the course of her life for- didn’t have enough problems to worry vidually (again following proper pro- ever! She “Listened” (the secret of about here on Earth. cedure). Now, in the video-recorded telepathic communications) and 8 excerpts above, it is striking to see movies were co-produced in record * * * that children are interviewed in a time with no training or previous “line” from four to six. Sometimes experience. Crop Circle Diaries offers Did sixty-two children actually see a other children are in the background an accumulation of Greer’s most landed UFO at the Ariel School near and listen to a child being questioned. astounding experiences in more than The adults talk to each other or 100 UK Crop Circles. (http://goo. Harare, Zimbabwe, in 1994? According “debrief ” while the children are still gl/6LFZUp) to many UFOlogists they did, and the case has since gone on to become some- very close and present. . . . Cynthia Speaking of the Men in Black, thing of a classic. The children were Hind conducting the interview is constantly interrupting the chil- George Noory, host of the late-night first interviewed by Cynthia Hind, a UFO and conspiracy radio show Coast dren and not allowing the free nar- local UFO investigator and writer. The rative. . . . There was also a session to Coast AM, has suggested that two re- Harvard psychiatrist and UFO abduc- where the children were invited [by cently deceased paranormal researchers tionist Dr. John Mack (1929–2004) Hind] to draw on the board this time “may have been murdered” (http://goo. visited Zimbabwe two months after around and not just on paper. . . . It is gl/kyLbII): “Concerns are magnified by the incident and spent two days at the still in my opinion a methodological the fact that [Max] Spiers passed away school interviewing the children and the error: the child is placed as in a school exercise status, “forcing him to pro- only a few days after prominent Indian school staff. paranormal researcher Gaurav Tiwari duce” for adult authority and waiting Recently, the French UFO skeptic for something. . . . John Mack also, also died.” But then in true sensational- Gilles Fernandez, who has a PhD in two months later, invited children to ized clickbait fashion, Noory then back- cognitive psychology, reviewed those draw. . . . tracks and explains: investigations and interrogations. He The most cogent observation so far on A reasoned examination of the situa- built upon the earlier investigations of tion suggests that the two researchers the case by another French skeptic “Nab the Ariel School case is the one made were probably not the victims of a Lator,” who first successfully de-blurred on my Bad UFOs blog by Richard vast conspiracy. . . . Murdering both the placard and busted the “Roswell Ernsberger: “This all reminds me of the men would have required a con- siderably complex conspiracy, since Slides” last year (see this column, Sep- McMartin preschool case only without Tiwari died in his native India while tember/October 2015). people going to jail and having their I Spiers passed away in . So Fernandez noted that “it is partic- lives needlessly destroyed.”

26 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer [ THE SCIENCE OF SCIENCE COMMUNICATION MATTHEW NISBET Matthew Nisbet is associate professor of communication at Northeastern University and a Committee for Skeptical Inquiry scientific consultant. From 1997 to 1999, he was public relations director for CSI.

Winning the Vaccine War Focus on Community-Based Strategies and Avoid Denigrating Parents

ince the 1960s, high rates of child- at or above 90 percent. At such rates remain strong in the great majority hood vaccination in the United that approach “herd immunity,” it is of U.S. communities, suggesting that S States have led to dramatic difficult for infectious diseases such as vaccine doubts among parents are not declines in cases of polio; measles, measles to spread, enabling outbreaks translating into a national-level prob- mumps, and rubella (MMR); chicken to be contained. But according to 2015 lem. Yet in some communities, child- pox; and other diseases. The benefits estimates, some states and communities hood vaccination rates are danger- to society have been overwhelming. remain dangerous outliers. In Arizona, ously below herd immunity levels. To Over the past two decades alone, vac- it is estimated that only 84 percent of counter these trends, research suggests cines have prevented an estimated 322 infants are vaccinated for MMR. In that a nationally focused education and million disease cases, 730,000 early Michigan, only 59 percent are covered media campaign could create awareness deaths, and $1.4 trillion in related costs for rotavirus. Moreover, across states, among parents of a false “controversy” (Whitney et al. 2014). poor communities tend to have dispro- that backfires by generating greater Government-led vaccination pro- portionately low rates of infant vacci- doubt and concerns (see Nyhan et al. grams have been so effective that many nation (Elam-Evans et al. 2014). At 2014). Americans aged forty-five and younger the other end of the spectrum, in some Instead, what are needed are care- have little to no comprehension of the wealthy communities in California, the fully evaluated communication strat- lethal threats that these diseases once rate of vaccination for kindergartners is egies tailored to the dynamics of doc- posed, contributing to their doubts only 50 percent (Yang et al. 2016). tor-parent interactions and to specific about vaccine safety and their oppo- Overall, these statistics paint a com- communities, regions, and school dis- sition to government mandates. In plicated portrait. Vaccination rates tricts that have high rates of non-vac- a 2015 national survey, 41 percent of eighteen- to twenty-nine-year-olds and 35 percent of thirty- to forty-nine- year-olds said that parents should be able to decide whether to vaccinate their children. In comparison, only 23 percent of fifty- to sixty-four-year-olds and 20 percent of those sixty-five and older said the same. These differences are likely partially explained by the comparatively greater proportion of younger Americans who believe that vaccines are unsafe (Pew Research Center 2015). Yet despite these troubling trends, in 2015 the rate of vaccination for infants and kindergartners in the great major- ity of states and communities remained

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 27 cination. Policy measures, such as cines during the first two years of life parents and their children (Opel et al. changes in state laws and programs (34 percent); that vaccines might cause 2013). that make it more affordable or easier fevers (32 percent); that vaccines may Others argue for a “participatory” to access vaccination services, are also cause learning disabilities and autism approach in which health care pro- needed. In each approach, the com- (30 percent); and that the ingredients in viders actively volunteer to address plexity of parent attitudes and decisions vaccines are unsafe (26 percent) (Ken- any concerns or questions that parents needs to be carefully considered. Sim- nedy et al. 2011). might have about vaccination. Research plistic characterizations of parents as When asked which sources they are suggests that this approach results in a either “deniers” or pro-sci- most likely to turn to for advice, 85 lower vaccination rate than the pre- ence “believers” are misleading and percent of parents mentioned health sumptive strategy, or may delay vacci- counterproductive. care providers, and 80 percent said nation as parents put off the decision for a later visit. But advocates of the participatory approach argue that it reduces feelings of possible alienation or distrust among parents and avoids a possible backlash against overly pre- Apart from the communication approach used sumptive health care providers (see by health care providers, other strategies are Hendrix et al. 2016 for discussion). Apart from the communication ap- needed to increase vaccination rates among proach used by health care providers, children from low-income households. other strategies are needed to increase vaccination rates among children from These may include eliminating co-payments low-income households. These may for vaccination-related doctor’s visits. include eliminating co-payments for vaccination-related doctor’s visits, im- plementing home visits by health care providers, providing vaccination ser- vices at day care facilities and schools, and including vaccinations as part of other government benefits provided Health Care Providers that they trusted their advice. No other to low-income women and children and Access to Services source came close. Surprisingly, despite (Community Preventive Services Task Force n.d.). Not surprisingly, the most relevant fears about the spread of misinforma- population to target from a communi- tion online, parents were far less likely cation standpoint is parents with young to say that they turn to the Internet. Engaging ‘White Privilege’ Communities children. In this case, a 2010 nationally The authors of the study conclude that Several studies have identified the representative survey of parents pro- “the Internet probably supplements, socio-demographic correlates of those vides several tentative insights. That but does not replace, direct commu- outlier schools or districts with high rates year, more than 80 percent of parents nication with a health care provider or of parents seeking vaccine exemption with children under age six said that other trusted individual” (Kennedy et for religious or philosophical beliefs. For they had already vaccinated their chil- al. 2011). these parents, cost or access to health dren, and another 11 percent said they Given the central role that health care is not the problem. Indeed, belief planned to vaccinate their kids with all care providers play, there is some debate exemptions are most likely to occur in recommended vaccines (Kennedy et al. over the best approaches they should communities of so-called “white privi- 2011). adopt in communicating with parents. lege,” defined by their economic affluence Despite a high rate of reported com- Some experts argue for a “presumptive” and overwhelmingly white populations. pliance, only 23 percent of parents said approach in which health care providers For example, in California, between that they had no concerns about child- assume during routine visits that par- 2007 and 2013, the percentage of re- hood vaccines. Many, even if deciding ents agree to the recommended sched- ligious and philosophical exemptions to vaccinate their children, harbor a va- ule of vaccinations. In the presumptive for children statewide is estimated to riety of questions, concerns, and even approach, providers broach the topic have increased from only 1 percent to doubts. Top concerns included that it by simply saying, “Well, we have to do 3 percent, but some suburban commu- might be painful for children to receive some shots,” and may follow by add- nities in the state are estimated to have so many shots (38 percent of parents); ing, “So, we’ll do three shots and the exemption rates close to 50 percent. that children were receiving too many drink. Is this okay?” Research suggests Within these mostly white communi- shots in one doctor’s visit (36 percent); that this approach results in the highest ties, non-vaccination rates tend to be that children are getting too many vac- rate of vaccination compliance among highest in smaller private and charter

28 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer schools. Studies have found similar cor- likely to be legally challenged and may policy in the United States. American journal relates of nonexemption rates in several reinforce distrust and alienation among of Public Health 106(2): 273–278. Kennedy, A., M. Basket, and K. Sheedy. 2011. Midwest areas (Yang et al. 2016). parents. An alternative is to require that Vaccine attitudes, concerns, and information There is no silver-bullet approach parents opting for a belief exemption sources reported by parents of young chil- to shifting the views of parents in these pay an annual processing fee, set at a dren: Results from the 2009 HealthStyles affluent communities. Each needs to sliding scale based on income. The goal survey. Pediatrics 127(Supplement 1): S92– be more carefully studied, identifying is to make a belief exemption by parents S99. the specific parental concerns and be- less convenient and more burdensome. Nyhan, B., J. Reifler, S. Richey, et al. 2014. liefs unique to each context. Research The strategy is not only likely to in- Effective messages in vaccine promotion: A randomized trial. Pediatrics 133(4): e835– should also examine how information crease vaccination rates but also gener- e842. about vaccination is shared among par- ate revenue for vaccine education and Opel, D.J., J. Heritage, J.A. Taylor, et al. 2013. ents within the community, including outreach programs. More analysis of The architecture of provider-parent vac- the role of local health care provid- this strategy is merited (Billington and cine discussions at health supervision visits. I ers, schools, churches, parent groups, Omer 2016). Pediatrics peds-2013. elected officials, the news media, and Pearlstein, J. 2016. California’s pro-vaccina- References tion law may be working. Wired (January social media. 21). Available online at http://www.wired. Several legislative and policy strate- Billington, J.K., and S.B. Omer. 2016. Use of fees to discourage nonmedical exemptions com/2016/01/californias-pro-vaccination- gies are perhaps even more likely to be to school immunization laws in US states. law-may-be-working/. effective. For example, in 2015 Cali- American Journal of Public Health 106(2): Pew Research Center. 2015. Americans, fornia joined other states in no longer 269–270. Politics, and Science Issues. Washington, Community Preventive Services Task Force. allowing parents enrolling their chil- DC. Available online at http://www.pew N.d. Increasing appropriate vaccination: internet.org/2015/07/01/chapter-5-public- universally recommended vaccinations. The dren in schools and day cares to claim views-about-biomedical-issues/. a religious or philosophical exemption. Guide to Community Preventive Services. Available online at http://www.thecommu- Whitney, C.G., F. Zhou, J. Singleton, et al. Following the adoption of the rule, the nityguide.org/vaccines/universally/index. 2014. Benefits from immunization during percentage of vaccinated kindergart- html. the Vaccines for Children Program era— ners entering the state’s schools was the Elam-Evans, L.D., D. Yankey, J.A. Singleton, United States, 1994–2013. Morbidity and et al. 2014. National, state, and selected highest in a decade (Pearlstein 2016). Mortality Weekly Report 63(16): 352–355. local area vaccination coverage among chil- Yang, Y.T., P.L. Delamater, T.F. Leslie, et al. dren aged 19–35 months—United States, More research, data, and time are 2016. Sociodemographic predictors of vac- needed to fully assess the impact of 2013. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 63(34): 741–748. cination exemptions on the basis of personal the California mandate and similar ac- Hendrix, K.S., L.A. Sturm, G.D. Zimet, et belief in California. American Journal of Public tions in other states. Such mandates are al. 2016. Ethics and childhood vaccination Health 106(1): 172–177.

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Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 29 [ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of nine books, including Bad Clowns.

‘M’ Is for Mysterious Marks

I was talking with a friend who lives in another state with her husband and fourteen-year- old daughter, M. She said M has had some strange paranormal things happening to her, and others have witnessed it. Strange blue marks appear on the walls throughout the house. It’s : not paint, marker, pen, or chalk, but magic eraser takes them off the walls. And no, it’s not Q their daughter, as some of the places where the marks appear are up way too high. They had a clergyperson bless the house, who also suggested that this “presence” is following the daughter since it’s happened in more than one house. I’m pretty much at a loss of what even to suggest to my friend. Do you have any suggestions?

I got the above question I replied to K: “I don’t know how from an acquaintance you want to handle this. The marks whom I’ll call “K.” At on the wall were probably made by a : the time, I was on my right-handed person, most likely M way to Los Angeles for but maybe someone else, I suppose. A a TV show and couldn’t The fact that they first appeared at address it right then, but after examin- isn’t surprising. It’s not un- ing a half dozen photos of the mysteri- common for ‘ghost’ events to occur in ous blue marks she sent (see Figure 1), households with teenagers, and many I asked her to forward the following are done for attention by teenagers. questions to her friend: “Is the daugh- I don’t have enough information to ter right-handed? Does anyone actu- know 100 percent if that’s what’s going ally see the blue marks being made, or on here but it’s very likely. I under- do they appear when no one is around? stand how a family would not want to Are there any objects in the home that think that a teen is faking it—and I’m are the same color blue that could have not accusing anyone—I’m just telling been used to mark the walls?” you what the most likely explanation is A few days later the answers were based on my research and experience. waiting for me upon my return, for- The marks didn’t simply appear on the warded through our mutual friend: Figure 1. wall by themselves: something—or “Yes, M is right-handed. We have someone—made them. Obviously I never seen the marks made, but they can’t drop what I’m doing to fly out appear in other rooms when we are there and conduct a full investigation, and they are at a loss to explain it. nearby and we have all been together but I do have a technique that will The marks first appeared on October in the same room. Some of the marks very likely prevent it from happening looked like they were sprayed. Other 30 and 31.” K also mentioned that M again: Buy one or more cameras to re- marks looked like finger streaks. Two was adopted and her home life had not cord what happens in the house. They of my brothers and husband have tried been stable; that and other issues had cost between $60 and $150. Set up to figure out what has made the marks led to family tensions. the cameras in places where the writ- 30 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer BENJAMIN RADFORD SKEPTICAL INQUIREE ]

ing has appeared before; if it happens again, then whatever, or whoever, made it will be on tape. After that, they have three options: 1) Make sure M knows that the Doing real investigation into seemingly mysterious cameras are being put in (in which case if it’s her, the writing will happen in phenomena takes time, preparation, effort, other places, but if it’s not her then pre- and sometimes a significant amount of money. sumably the writing will paranormally appear); Some investigations I’ve done have taken only a few 2) Don’t tell M that the cameras are minutes, while others take days or even weeks. there (in which case it’s likely that she will be seen doing something suspi- cious); or 3) Tell M that one camera is being put in at one location, and put others in very close eye on things and think more I never heard back (nor did I ex- three or four different locations to see towards her causing it if and when it pect to), but this case highlights a if something odd happens there (obvi- happens again.” ously they’d have to be different types/ stark distinction between how scien- It was not clear why she was cer- brands of hidden cameras). tists and skeptics approach anomalous tain that the mysterious blue marks If this is done and they get any sort phenomena and how ghost hunters do. appeared while M was gone, though it of mysterious, unexplained footage of If there was a specific location where writing on the walls or anything else, seems possible that they might be dis- the known principles of science did I’ll be happy to look at it.” covered while she was out of the house, not seem to apply—say, a given build- K asked me if she could simply for- and the family assumed that they had ing or public area where demonstrable ward my response to M’s mother in- appeared shortly before their discovery. paranormal activity was believed to stead of summarizing or paraphrasing After all, she acknowledges that no one occur—scientists would return to the my advice. I replied, “Sure, that’s fine saw the marks being made and there- spot daily for months, years, or de- with me. I’m not trying to embarrass fore without before-and-after photos cades (however long it takes) to study, anyone or catch anyone, but the fact is of all the walls there would be no way examine, and document this amazing that troubled teens have been known to to be sure exactly when the marks ap- anomaly. Ghost hunters, however, fake paranormal activity for attention; peared. It’s entirely possible that M even when they are seemingly confident could have surreptitiously made a mark it’s a documented fact. Probably the that they have experienced or recorded on a wall in an inconspicuous place that most famous case was the 1984 Co- something ghostly or paranormal at a might not be noticed for hours, over- lumbia Poltergeist case, where troubled , often leave the place night, or perhaps days. teenager Tina Resch faked ghost phe- satisfied with their ambiguous evidence I replied to K that “Yes, that was the nomenon [I included a link to informa- and don’t return unless it’s for a specific response I was expecting: ‘It can’t be tion on the case]. My concern is that event, such as Halloween or another the person it most likely is, and we’re the family has enough on their hands ghost hunt. dealing with interpersonal issues with- not interested in putting in the time Doing real investigation into seem- out having to fear that their home is and money to prove what’s going on....’ ingly mysterious phenomena takes time, haunted. I understand that the writing The fact is that if what they’re saying preparation, effort, and sometimes a is not the only thing they claim is going is true—that the writing appears mys- significant amount of money. Some in- on there, and that’s not uncommon; but teriously when no one is around—then vestigations I’ve done have taken only a if the ghost writing isn’t real then it’s they could get very rich by recording that unlikely the rest of it is either.” happening; they could sell it to TV sta- few minutes, while others take days or About a week later, I got the follow- tions and probably have a movie made even weeks. A few have taken months, ing forwarded reply from K: “I was ex- about it. Seriously, they could make tens and a handful—such as my chupacabra pecting this response. Tell Ben thanks of thousands of dollars if they had clear, research—took several years. Often a for the time and thought he put into genuine video of marks or writing ap- mystery remains unsolved for the sim- it. Our first thought was that it was pearing on walls in their home. If that’s ple reason that people don’t put in the M, but it couldn’t be her with the cups really what’s going on—and it’s not a time and effort required to find solu- flying out of the cupboard, and some hoax or a prank by someone for atten- tions. If you give up before you find the of the blue marks appeared when she tion—then a $100 hidden camera would answer (or don’t even bother to look), was gone. We really can’t afford to go be the best investment they could make. then of course the “unexplained” will I out and buy cameras. . . .We will keep a I hope it all works out.” remain so.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 31 NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD] MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and cofounder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

Houdini and the Cancer of Superstition

t is one of those discoveries long in the magazine, and within its pages thought impossible: an unpublished had already published two short stories Imanuscript, commissioned by Harry (likewise written by others): “The Hoax Houdini to H. P. Lovecraft, has finally of the Spirit Lover” and “The Spirit resurfaced. It’s actually a thirty-one Fakers of Hermannstadt.” page typescript titled The Cancer of In 1924, for his third story, which Superstition and it went to auction in would be titled “Under the Pyramids” Chicago for Potter & Potter April 9, (later changed to “Imprisoned with 2016, where it fetched $28,000. the Pharaohs”), Houdini told Jacob C. But how did the King of Magicians Henneberger, editor of the magazine, and the writer who would get enor- that the events in it actually happened, mous (posthumous) fame as the master and he wanted someone to work it out of weird fiction get together in the first as a real story. The editor then turned place? to Lovecraft as a possible coauthor. In short, Houdini claimed that Prisoner of the Pharaohs during a trip to Australia he had Houdini never had a formal education stopped in Cairo, Egypt, where he was and, although a prolific reader, did not kidnapped by two Bedouins and locked have the ability to write the books he talents of H.P. Lovecraft—then an inside a pharaoh’s crypt under the des- wanted to author. For this reason, he unknown writer of modest means in ert. From here, he had managed to es- used some very skilled ghostwriters, Providence, Rhode Island—Houdini cape only after going through a most such as Walter B. Gibson (who later was so struck that he commissioned a “hideous experience” that he could not created the character of The Shadow), book. At that time, Lovecraft wrote for disclose (Silverman 1996). Albert Guissart, Clinton Burgess, and Weird Tales, a popular magazine de- In a letter to a friend, Lovecraft Bernard M. L. Ernst. voted to horror and science-fiction sto- explained that his job would be to But when he chanced upon the ries. Houdini had a profit-sharing plan “invent” the episode and color it with the most macabre undertones. He was quite astonished by Houdini’s intention to pass the story, “worthy of a Mun- chausen,” as an actual adventure. “He’s supremely egotistical, as one can see at a glance,” Lovecraft wrote. But, even- tually, he accepted the job for the sum of $100 (around $1,400 in present-day dollars). “I think I can come up with something pretty hellish. . . ” (Selected Letters 1976).

The Most Nameless Slithering Horror After devoting a lot of time and effort Left to right: , H.P. Lovecraft, and Clifford Martin Eddy, Jr. to writing an exciting and, as far as

32 Volume 40 Issue 6 Skeptical Inquirer it was possible, realistic adventure, that I can do business best within sight only through mental indolence of those Lovecraft lost the only copy of the of my native town’s Georgian steeples” who reject modern science.” manuscript on the train that was taking (Selected Letters 1976). However, in the text they also strug- him to New York, where he was going But Houdini suffered a blow in Oc- gle to balance this primitivist theory of to get married. tober 1926, in Detroit, and was rushed the development of superstition against So, just after the wedding he was to the hospital. evidence of what was really a cross-cul- under the gun to rewrite the story, as- “Just now,” Lovecraft added, “I note tural “scourge” surviving among their sisted by his wife, who typed it (certainly in the paper that Houdini has had a contemporaries, even the well educated, an unusual way to spend a honeymoon!). breakdown—which must have occurred introducing citations of early twenti- “Boy, that Houdini job!” he wrote to just after the last letter he sent me—so eth-century studies on superstitious his friend. “It strained me to the limit.” I fancy there will be a lull in negotia- beliefs among students and faculty at He had solved the problem by treat- tions. I’ll send him a line of sympathy prestigious American universities. ing the kidnapping in Cairo realistically, to jolly him along. Poor Eddy, who with The typescript is divided into three and then for the part under the pyra- my aid has been doing some revision sections, “The Genesis of Superstition,” mids, he unleashed “the most nameless, for the nimble wizard, is quite worried “The Expansion of Superstition,” and slithering, unmentionable HORROR about his unexpected intervention of the “The Fallacy of Superstition,” situ- that ever stalked cloven-hooved through gods.” ating superstition among an array of the tenebrous and necrophagous abysses The Eddy referenced was Clifford pre-modern belief systems, including of elder night” (Selected Letters 1976). Martin Eddy Jr., a Lovecraft collab- animism, fetishism, beliefs, To make sure that the story could be orator. It appears, in fact, that when witchcraft, and black magic. adapted to the character of the popular Houdini wanted to start working on the Even though the text was written showman, he then watered it all down Superstition book, he hired both Eddy by C. M. Eddy and typed by his wife, with the formula: “It was all a dream.” and Lovecraft. Houdini gave them a it still originated from some ideas by “It must have been a dream,” said the sketchy outline of what he wanted—a Houdini and was edited and annotated protagonist of the story, Houdini of work on the origin, growth, and fallacy by Lovecraft. It would probably have course, at the end, “or the dawn would of superstition—and furnished Eddy made a thin book if those few dozen never have found me breathing on the with voluminous notes and ideas that pages (two are lost, but the surviving sands of Gizeh before the sardonic he wanted incorporated in the book. He include two pages of bibliography at dawn-flushed face of the Great Sphinx.” also suggested that perhaps Lovecraft the end) was all that was written. But, Lovecraft’s story is actually con- could put the notes into shape so that had it been published, today we would sidered among the best written up to Eddy could work from an outline Love- probably look at it as a “classic” Hou- this time, and the fantastic and grue- craft prepared. dini work, ghostwritten by none other some end is among his most effective However, the unexpected took place: than H.P. Lovecraft. surprise endings. Houdini was so im- Houdini died on October 31, 1926. It may be interesting, in closing, to pressed that he thought of Lovecraft The project, which had just begun, had note that even if Lovecraft considered as a regular contributor for his future to be stopped. Bess, Houdini’s widow, Houdini “incredibly self-centered” projects, including a book tracing the was approached and asked if she wanted and with a “general lack of culture,” he anthropology and psychology of super- Houdini’s book to be finished, but she also credited him with being “incred- stition that would be called The Cancer said no. An attempt was made to trans- ibly honest in his research” and noted of Superstition. form the work already completed into an that, concerning the capacity of men for article, but no publisher was found. The self-deception, he had “a tremendous text was forgotten. amount of penetrative skill and work- The Cancer of Superstition I Until a few months ago, it was be- able erudition” (Silverman 1996). “My neo-Bush is our slippery friend lieved that only a few pages from this Houdini, who was here early in the work were written, but the manuscript Note month,” wrote Lovecraft, “and rushed that went to auction, with its thirty-one For more information on The Cancer of me to hell preparing an anti-astro- Superstition manuscript, see these two excellent leaves, showed that this was not the case. logical article to be finished before blogs on Houdini: www.wildabouthoudini.com and harryhoudinicircumstantialevidence.com; his departure—a matter of five days; A ‘Classic’ Houdini Book for more on the Lovecraft connections, see for which I received the not wholly wormwoodiana.blogspot.it. despicable remuneration of seven- In the manuscript pages, Eddy, ty-five actual dollars. He says he has Lovecraft, and Houdini try to build a References a devilish lot more for me to do, and theory where superstition is defined H.P. Lovecraft’s Selected Letters II: 1925–1929. has been trying to get me to meet him as an “inborn inclination” traceable to 1976. Sauk City, Wisconsin: Arkham House Publishers. in Detroit at his own expense to talk “primitive races . . . utterly ignorant of Silverman, Kenneth. 1996. Houdini!!! The Career things over—but I have maintained the laws of Nature,” that now “persists of Ehrich Weiss. New York: HarperCollins.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 33 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration This is the FORTIETH ANNIVERSARY YEAR of the COMMITTEE FOR SKEPTICAL INQUIRY and the SKEPTICAL INQUIRER.

In this issue we continue the fortieth anniversary celebration of the Skeptical Inquirer and Committee for Skeptical Inquiry with eight invited essays by notable skeptics on their personal “Odysseys in Scientific Skepticism.” We follow that with a fifteen-year update of the CSI(COP) history timeline.

34 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Bigfoot and I: Reflections on Forty Years of Skepticism EUGENIE SCOTT

needed a work-study job, and the new physical anthro- You have to think with your pologist reportedly was coming to the University of head, not with your heart. IWisconsin–Milwaukee with a large skeletal collection of I received my PhD and taught biological anthropology for several monkeys, which with luck would need a handy work-study years before becoming a nonprofit student to clean and organize. director at the National Center It was the fall of 1965, and I malayas that were claimed to be for Science Education, which op- was a junior in college, majoring Yeti scalp but which could be just posed the teaching of the pseu- in physical anthropology. I got about anything. This was well be- doscience of creation “science.” the job; there weren’t many work- fore DNA analysis put to rest the These activities connected me to study students willing to wash, claims of hair and skin as being CSICOP, and I was made a fel- sort, and label slightly smelly and from unknown primates. Tappen low in 1988. Then and now, the somewhat greasy monkey bones was small but tough and wiry. He question of how to identify a fifteen hours a week. Prof. Neil had stalked those now-skeletal claim as potentially valid is at the Tappen not only hired me and, monkeys through the jungles and core of scientific skepticism. over time, taught me a whole lot shot them out of the trees. He Then, as now, I recommend of science, he gave me my first was a good field biologist who a classic article by the physicist lesson in skeptical thinking. could handle himself outdoors. I James Trefil (“A Consumer’s Did I mention I was a physical pressed him, “But if you had the Guide to Pseudoscience,” Sat- anthropologist? Did I mention chance, wouldn’t you go on an ex- urday Review, 1978, pp. 16–21) that every physical anthropologist pedition to find a Yeti?” that helped me think about the secretly wishes that Yeti and Big- He just looked at me with relationship between science and foot were real? Of course we do! what I hoped was patience, but pseudoscience. Sometimes offbeat Back in the 1960s, Bigfoot it might have been exasperation. ideas turn out to be correct, so you and Yeti cropped up in the tab- “I’ll be first in line for the second can’t just toss aside anything that loids even more often than they expedition,” he commented and isn’t mainstream. And any scien- do today, along with then went on his way. tist will tell you even more quickly and alien visitations. One after- Right. If Yeti or Bigfoot truly than a purveyor of woo that we noon while we were waiting for were real, someone would have don’t yet know everything about class, a fellow student brought up found some really good evidence how nature or people work: there’s Yetis, which quickly turned into a by now. Once some actual evi- a lot left for science to discover. So could-they-be-real conversation. dence existed, Neil indeed would how do you distinguish the useful “Well, maybe they’re out there have been first in line to pack up ideas, the potentially good ones, but really good at hiding them- his field gear and head off into and the worthless? selves,” and so on. Prof. Tappen the wild to study this strange new Trefil suggests thinking of the happened by and, as he was the primate—but given the combined content of science as being com- primate expert, we asked him his improbability of its existence and posed of three concentric circles opinion. Were there undiscovered the lack of good evidence, he (see Figure 1). In the center are giant primates living in the wild? wasn’t going to waste his time. the core ideas of science—the tried Would anyone find them? Just because the idea of giant pri- and true, repeatedly tested, and se- “Highly improbable,” was his mates in relict environments is cure explanations that we rely on. answer. The claimed evidence really cool and you truly want it Heliocentrism is here to stay. So is was some dodgy footprints and to be real, it can’t be wished into evolution, thermodynamics, CO2 some pieces of leather in the Hi- being. as a warming gas, and lots more.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 35 Next is the frontier, where ergy” machines (you can invest fringe forever as violating too many explanations are being proposed in them on the Internet!) violate core understandings of mammalian and actively tested. These are the the principles of thermodynam- population biology. How many hypotheses that university and ics—like all perpetual motion individual Yetis would be required industry scientists are working on machines, physicists don’t invest to maintain a breeding population now. Any science journal’s table in them. ESP? No mechanisms for the last ten or twenty million proposed, but worse, no unqual- years—without a single fossil, ified demonstrations of the phe- bone, carcass, or reliable sighting? nomenon. What are the caloric requirements One marker of a fringe idea of a large primate, much less a is that professional scientists breeding population—and where aren’t spending time on it; they is that food going to come from in know it is very unlikely that a place such as Bigfoot’s northwest ideas contradicted by core scien- coast forests? Unlike bears, another tific explanations are going to be large mammal, Bigfoot, as a pri- useful. The fringe is the land of mate, is physiologically incapable amateurs, and not necessarily in a of hibernation. What’s it going to Figure 1. good way. Occasionally (rarely?), eat during the winter? Yeti has the a fringe idea will make its way same problem—only squared. The quickest, back-of-the- envelope way to start analyzing a One marker of a fringe possible pseudoscience is to see, first, if professional scientists are idea is that professional spending time on it. If none are, scientists aren’t that’s a significant sign in itself. But maybe the idea is too new spending time on it. and, yes, scientists tend to be con- servative, so professional scientific disregard isn’t a deal-breaker in itself. But what is a deal-breaker is if the idea is incompatible with a well-accepted, core idea of science. Of course scientific explanations can change—but remember, the definition of a core idea is that it of contents can provide dozens into the frontier. Even less often, is so well tested that it’s not worth of unsolved problems. Most of it will be demonstrated to be a continuing to test it. A core idea is the solutions, alas, will not pan keeper. Continental drift was a used to build new hypotheses and out: mostly you get pebbles, and decidedly fringe-y idea when first explanations. We doubtless still some of the shiny stuff turns out proposed, but gradually evidence have things to learn about the solar to be mica, not gold. If the ex- built up, and it moved to the fron- system, but that the Sun is at its planation is a good one, though, tier. For decades scientists tested center is not going to change with it will work its way into the sci- and built on the idea, and plate new data or theory. entific consensus and into the tectonics is now a core idea of core. Otherwise, well, there’s the geology. Mostly, however, fringe If someone comes up with an outermost concentric circle, the ideas deserve to stay there. But explanation or concept that flies fringe, full of ideas with serious science is open to new ideas—it’s in the face of really solid science, don’t waste your time. Wait for problems. not a closed shop. Still, to make I Fringe science is incompati- the grade, the explanations have the second expedition. ble with one or more core ideas to be valid: your crazy idea has to Eugenie Scott, a physical anthro- of science. Flood geology, the actually help explain nature. pologist, is founding executive creationist idea that Earth’s sed- And my friend Bigfoot? Well, director of the National Center for imentary deposits are the result some manifestations of the story Science Education. She is a fellow of the waters of Noah’s flood, are wildly improbable: that Yetis and member of the Executive Coun- violates a very long list of core and Bigfoots are relict Giganto- cil of the Committee for Skeptical principles of geology. “Free en- pithecus is going to stay on the Inquiry.

36 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer My Personal Odyssey in Skepticism HARRIET HALL

discovered the S I shortly after its name rectly hurt anyone, but false beliefs change from The Zetetic. It changed my life. I had already about health regularly kill people. Irejected religion after reading atheist writings, but I was Anti-vaccine activism threatens everyone’s public health. Des- still open to belief in UFOs, ESP, and all sorts of other weird perate, vulnerable cancer patients things, simply because I had never come across anyone who are victimized by charlatans who questioned those beliefs. It was a revelation to learn that persuade them to give up treat- there were other explanations for those phenomena. And ments proven to cure or prolong it was a revelation to learn about the human psychology survival, get them to empty their of how our thinking can lead us astray. Regular reading of bank accounts and mortgage their homes to pay for treatments that S I educated me: it was equivalent to tak- don’t work, and get the dying to ing a college course in critical thinking. squander their last days in Mexico Most people hate to admit it ing, and it developed into a whole getting coffee enemas instead of at when they are wrong; I don’t. One new career. By my count I have home spending quality time with of the things I most love about now had thirty articles and re- their loved ones. skepticism is the opportunity to views published in SI. Beliefs in bogus treatments find out I was wrong about some- I continue to be overwhelmed are as strongly held as religious thing. It means I have learned and astonished at the unexpected beliefs. One of the lessons I something and have a better grasp course my life has taken. I have have learned is that evidence on reality than I did before. I feel spoken at skeptical conferences in and reasoning have no impact on smarter, and I find that very sat- five countries. I am an editor of true believers. I don’t write for isfying. the Science-Based Medicine blog. them. I write for the inquirers I wanted to know more. I read I have written for , and the fence-sitters. Just as I skeptical authors voraciously. I Skeptic magazine (where I have had never questioned ESP until attended CSICOP conferences as a regular column as The Skep- I read authors who questioned it, a sort of groupie, wanting to see Doc), online publications, medi- patients are not likely to question and hear in person the luminaries cal journals, and even briefly for whose books I had read, the intel- O, The Oprah Magazine! I have lectual giants who had become my coauthored a textbook on con- idols. Never in my wildest dreams sumer health and appeared in did I imagine that I would be on several anthologies. And none of the same stage with them some this ever would have happened if day. It never occurred to me that I hadn’t subscribed to S I might have anything to contrib- I way back when. ute. Then, in 2002, I attended My main area of focus has CSICOP’s Skeptic’s Toolbox been medicine, alternative medi- workshop, and cine, and , because that’s and encouraged me where I have something to con- to try my hand at writing. I had tribute from my background as never written anything before. a physician and because I think When my first article was pub- medicine is the most important lished in S I in issue for skepticism today. Belief 2003, I was ecstatic. I kept writ- in Bigfoot and UFOs doesn’t di-

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 37 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration

alternative medicine and ment to the Executive Council As long as humans are hu- quackery if all they have access was icing on the cake. It’s still mans, promoting critical think- to is what the proponents have hard for me to believe that I have ing will be a never-ending Si- written. My aim is to put correct become one of those people. syphean task. But I prefer to information out there where As a woman in the male-dom- see the glass as half-full: I am seekers can find it to counteract inated fields of medicine, avia- encouraged by what the skepti- some of the misinformation tion, and the military, I frequently cal movement has accomplished they are bombarded with. The encountered sexist attitudes and over these past forty years. Skep- culmination of my efforts is a unfair treatment. I wrote about tical information is widely avail- free ten-part video lecture series my struggles in my book Women able; skeptical organizations have on YouTube (http://web.randi. Aren’t Supposed to Fly: The Mem- sprung up all over the world;

The proudest moment of my life was when I became a CSI fellow. It validated my work and meant I had been accepted into the company of the people I had so long admired.

org/educational-modules.html) oirs of a Female Flight Surgeon. I conferences have multiplied and produced by the James Randi never had any such struggles in are well attended; the media Educational Foundation. In it, the skeptical community. I was know who to call for the skepti- I distilled everything I’ve learned warmly welcomed and appreci- cal response to a story; religious about science-based medicine ated, and no one even thought to belief is declining. On the occa- and alternative medicine into the mention my gender. I was always sion of this fortieth anniversary, essential information that I want treated as an equal, as a skeptic, I want to congratulate CSICOP/ everyone to know. not as a “woman skeptic.” I felt CFI and S I The proudest moment of my that I had found my true home for all they have done to make life was when I became a CSI and family. I’ve been very dis- the world a better place. And fellow. It validated my work and tressed by recent reports of sex- I can’t thank them enough for meant I had been accepted into ism in the skeptical community making my own life more ratio- the company of the people I had because it is so at odds with my nal, more meaningful, and more so long admired. My appoint- personal experience. productive. I am bursting with pride to have made some small I contribution to their efforts.

Harriet Hall, MD, is a former Air Force flight surgeon, licensed pilot, and family physician. She critiques bad science and pseudoscientific thinking in alternative medicine and promotes critical thinking. She is a fellow and member of the Exec- utive Council of CSI.

38 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer From Tiny Acorns . . .

CHRISTOPHER C. FRENCH

was delighted to be invited to contribute to this for- this time, my interest in skep- tieth anniversary issue of S I. The ticism was very much a hobby, Imagazine first came to my attention when I read James something that I pursued in my own time purely for my own Alcock’s wonderful book, : Science or Magic? enjoyment. But I decided that I (Oxford/Pergamon Press, 1981) back in the early 1980s. I knew enough about the area to confess that, prior to reading Alcock’s book, I believed in give a two-hour lecture on para- quite a number of paranormal claims. psychology as part of a “Theoret- ical Issues” module that I taught Indeed, I can even remember a whole new world was opening in. This time, my presentation presenting an entirely pro-para- up for me. I also purchased and was much more skeptical. My normal session on parapsychol- read many classic skeptical books interest in all things skeptical, ogy to a class of adults at a local by the likes of , but particularly the psychology of community college as part of an James Randi, and Philip Klass. paranormal belief and ostensibly introductory psychology course. I bought and read in its entirety paranormal experiences, contin- In my defense, back then skep- the mammoth volume A Skeptic’s ued to grow, and after a few more tical critiques of parapsychology Handbook of Parapsychology (Paul years I was even publishing the were even rarer than they are Kurtz, Prometheus Books, 1985). odd paper in this area. (I am sure now, and all the books I used in In 1985, I got a job as a lec- you all read my first empirical re- preparing the lecture were uncrit- turer at Goldsmiths College, port in the Australian Journal of ically pro-paranormal—but I still . Up until Psychology.) cringe inside to recall that ses- sion. Apart from opening my eyes to the fact that there were skep- tical books out there (if you knew where to look for them), Alcock’s book also contained numerous references to a publication called the S I, which I had never heard of up until that point. I cannot remember how I came to learn that Mike Hutchin- son was the U.K. distributor for the magazine, but somehow I did and I took out a subscription. I used to eagerly await delivery of the magazine and immedi- ately read every issue I received from cover to cover. It felt as if

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 39 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration

In 1995, I decided I knew really fascinated me. In 2000, I ning magazine devoted to pro- enough to present an entire set up the Anomalistic Psychol- viding a skeptical perspective on module on “Psychology, Para- ogy Research Unit at Goldsmiths the paranormal. psychology, and Pseudoscience” (APRU; http://www.gold.ac.uk/ The skeptic scene is currently as an optional final year module apru/) to provide a focus for re- thriving in the as part of Goldsmiths’ BSc pro- search activity in this area. I made at all levels. Within academia, gram in psychology. It proved a conscious decision to focus all of anomalistic psychology is increas- to be a popular option with the my research efforts in the area of ingly taught at universities as an students, and I loved teaching it. anomalistic psychology. optional course, and the number The range of topics I could cover One of the APRU’s aims was of academic publications in this

The range of topics I could cover was very wide, from entertaining subjects such as the techniques used by psychic con artists to the most profound questions facing humanity such as the possibility of life after death.

was very wide, from entertaining to raise the profile and academic area increases year to year. At the subjects such as the techniques respectability of anomalistic psy- grassroots level, there are around used by psychic con artists to the chology, and I like to think we fifty branches of Skeptics in the most profound questions facing have had some success in achiev- Pub up and down the country humanity such as the possibility ing this. We generally publish our and numerous conferences such of life after death. The module research findings in high-quality as those organized by Centre for also provided a fantastic training peer-reviewed journals and edited Inquiry–UK and the wonderful in critical thinking, helping the academic volumes. However, we annual QED conference co-or- students to understand why some are also keenly aware of the value ganized by Merseyside Skeptics forms of evidence, such as prop- of public engagement for uni- and Greater Skep- erly controlled scientific studies, versities, and therefore we take tics. The APRU has certainly are so much more credible than every opportunity to provide an played a role in achieving this others, such as anecdotes and per- informed skeptical perspective healthy state of affairs—and it is sonal experience. on a wide range of paranormal fair to say that the APRU would Over the next few years, more topics via the media and public probably never have existed if I and more of my research was in events. Last year, for example, had not read ’s book the area of anomalistic psychol- Goldsmiths hosted the European all those years ago and been in- ogy, but I certainly felt that my Skeptics Congress. The APRU spired to take out a subscription I interest in the “weird stuff” was also organizes an Invited Speaker to S I. only tolerated as long as I also Series and the Greenwich branch published in what were per- of , both of Christopher C. French is Head of the ceived to be more “academically which are open to members of Anomalistic Psychology Research respectable” areas of psychology. the general public and regularly Unit, Department of Psychology, I obliged for a while, but I was draw in large attendances. For Goldsmiths College, University of becoming increasingly aware that a decade, the APRU edited The London. He is a CSI fellow. it was anomalistic psychology that Skeptic, the U.K.’s longest-run-

40 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Spreading Skepticism

WENDY GROSSMAN

ecently, the science writer John Horgan took skeptics consider probabilities. to task in Scientific American (http://blogs.scientifi- Some people are born to skep- R camerican.com/cross-check/dear-skeptics-bash-ho- ticism, some achieve it, and some have it thrust upon them. I think meopathy-and-bigfoot-less-mammograms-and-war- I was born this way. (“Everything more/) and at the Northeast Conference on Science and I say, there’s always an argument,” Skepticism for focusing too much on weak problems at the my mother used to say.) As a Cor- expense of strong ones. As examples of soft targets he listed nell student from 1971–1975, I ESP, heaven, homeopathy, Bigfoot, and disbelief in vaccines watched friends experiment with and climate change; among hard ones, multiverses, the transcendental meditation (TM) Singularity, overtreatment and overtesting for cancer (nota- and Erhard Seminars Training (est). I became a professional bly, mammograms), overmedication for mental illness, and folksinger and spent the rest of the deep-roots theory of war. He contended that tribalism is the 1970s encountering adher- served by our self-indulgence with “weak” targets. ents of “old knowledge”—witch- Horgan was quickly advised tic about skepticism.” In 2013, a craft, palmistry, and other beliefs how varied skepticism really is. Cochrane survey noted that the that would shortly be reframed as Outside the United States, wide- most reliable studies indicate that “New Age.” Particularly memo- spread belief in homeopathy mat- screening does not overall reduce rably, someone once told me he ters much more if governments breast cancer mortality but does investigated a reincarnation claim decide to include it in publicly cause much unnecessary treat- and found the true explanation funded, cash-strapped national ment (http://www.cochrane.org/ was genetic memory. Inwardly, health services at the expense of CD001877/BREASTCA_screen- I was like, “That’s absurd,” but more effective treatments. Here, ing-for-breast-cancer-with-mam- I didn’t want to have to sleep in Bigfoot can only wish for such mography). It’s not a good target my car. In January 1981, I called importance. But, as the late jour- for skeptics in general, however, a friend and said, “Let’s do some- nalist Simon Hoggart said, even because most of us are not med- thing new and different for my seemingly insignificant beliefs ical experts capable of mounting birthday.” “I can’t,” he said. “I create “a distracting background trials. have to go write up this lecture/ interference with the truth.” This goes to the heart of demonstration.” I said, “So I’ll As for mammograms . . . what, for me, skepticism is about: come to that.” The first time I heard a sci- things we can test. Probably ev- “That” was James Randi, entist question the value of eryone knows at least one woman showing psychic surgery and screening mammograms was in who knows that a mammogram metal bending, critiquing TM, in 1988, when Dr. Petr saved her life with early detec- and so on, and I thought he was Skrabanek outlined to me the tion. We can’t test this any more . . . amazing. Here was someone arguments he made in his 1985 than we can test whether the who could provide a reasoned letter to The Lancet. Skrabanek, heavy weight pressing on some- basis to all those “Seriously?” mo- whom I met a year and a half one’s chest in the middle of the ments. That Martin Gardner and after founding Britain’s The Skep- night was sleep paralysis, an alien Isaac Asimov, whose work I knew tic magazine, was my first “skep- visitor, or a ghost. We can only from middle school, were Randi’s

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 41 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration

cofounders made CSICOP an or- “foreigners” can maintain our In my technology writer ca- ganization worth following. distance from matters of faith in pacity, the Singularity is an un- In late 1986, the then execu- ways that the U.S. “mother ship” testable claim. Perhaps artificial tive director of CSICOP, Mark cannot. intelligence will outstrip human Plummer, was pushing people to In 1991, I turned to special- intelligence, continue to im- start local groups and suggested izing in what was then a barely prove exponentially, and solve all I start what became The Skeptic. born subject of interest: com- our intractable problems. Many The first responses were both ex- puters, freedom, and privacy or, start-ups (such as the U.K.’s hilarating and sad. Exhilarating as I often say, “the border wars DeepMind, acquired by Goo- because people really wanted the between cyberspace and real life.” gle in 2014) hope that’s true. To magazine—people such as later As the Internet increasingly be- date, experience has shown that editors Toby Howard and Chris came a political football, I began we can’t solve social problems French. Sad because so many to notice the distinct trend to- by throwing technology at them. wrote of their personal isolation. ward policy-based evidence The only available test is to wait I think Horgan’s complaints making, particularly in the areas and see.

Internationally, skepticism looks very different than in the United States, where the religious right has built huge controversies about evolution and reproductive rights, which are practically politically dead elsewhere.

would have been more accurate of copyright, cryptography, and However, the goal of the skep- then, when we all seemed to cycle surveillance, where dissenting ev- tical movement was never—or through a relatively narrow range idence is no more welcome than not for me—to debunk specific of common beliefs. In 1998, it is to an astrologer (“I know as- beliefs. Instead, it should be to when I began my second stint trology is true,” an acquaintance spread critical thinking on what- as editor (I had handed it off to said recently. “It’s mathematics.”) ever subject is shoved in front Toby Howard and Steve Don- The FBI’s recent effort to com- of us. For me, the most exciting nelly in 1989), ’s pel Apple to hack one of its own thing is to look around Britain work suggested it was essential to phones was a great example of and see all the skeptical activi- broaden our canvas to include technological magical thinking. ty—The Skeptic magazine under scientific controversies such as Dozens of mathematicians cited the editorship of , climate change, science fraud, the laws of mathematics; many more than 100 Skeptics in the and education. How many times politicians refuse to believe there’s Pub groups, the QED confer- can you debunk astrology and stay no “middle ground.” Over the ence, ASKE—and to know the interested? past five to ten years, what were magazine helped make that hap- pen. My greatest wish is that it Internationally, skepticism separate interests have converged, I looks very different than in the and in London it’s common to will survive me. United States, where the religious see my technical friends speak- Wendy Grossman is the founder and right has built huge controversies ing at Skeptics in the Pub meets twice editor of the U.K. magazine about evolution and reproduc- and skeptical friends becoming The Skeptic. A technology writer liv- tive rights, which are practically computers, freedom, and privacy ing in London, she is a fellow of the politically dead elsewhere. We activists. Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.

42 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer A Glimpse Backward—and Forward—at Skepticism’s Big Tent

BENJAMIN RADFORD

he Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and S she had no expertise, as she was I are celebrating forty years of organized neither a scientist nor an investi- T modern skepticism—though of course skepticism gator. “What do you do?” I asked, and she replied that she was an itself has a long and honorable tradition, as practiced by optometrist—a job she assumed Harry Houdini, Benjamin Franklin, Reginald Scot, David had no connection to skepticism. Hume, and others. I mentioned several claims related As it happens I have been One of CSI’s strengths is its to eyes and vision, including opti- closely involved with CSICOP/ broad array of expert contrib- cal illusions and something called CSI for half of its existence, and utors from seemingly disparate the “,” which rather therefore much of my adult life disciplines. When I give talks improbably claimed to not only (had I been told at ten what I’d on skepticism, I often emphasize improve eyesight through eye be doing at forty, I’d have consid- that people from any background exercises but also chronic illness ered that an extraordinary claim can contribute meaningfully to and tuberculosis. She left my talk indeed). In some ways, the de- our mission. I remember speak- with a scribbled page full of notes cades seem to have passed in the ing to one woman who was inter- on skeptical subjects within her blink of an eye, and in other ways, ested in my investigations but felt purview. it has taken an eternity. I wasn’t there in the early years: the heady seventies when astrol- ogy was rampant and Uri Geller was cranking out the woo trying to stay one step ahead of James “The Amazing” Randi. My entry to skepticism came in the mid-1990s when I began writing for S-  I after seeing a back issue (with a cover article by Randi) debunking a certain famously am- biguous and wily French author. A few years later at conferences, I got to meet both Randi and Carl Sagan, and with the encourage- ment of those two pillars of skep- ticism and others—as well as a for- tunately timed editorial vacancy at S I—I joined the organization.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 43 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration

I have yet to have a person differences unrelated to skepti- Gardner, and others too numer- name an occupation or hobby cism. ous to name. that doesn’t have some angle My main interest has always Sagan’s indispensible book The into pseudoscience or paranor- been in investigative skepti- Demon-Haunted World: Science as mal claims. An auto mechanic cism—specifically, applying sci- a Candle in the Dark opens with can write about wild claims entific methods to “unexplained” the quote, “It is better to light of improved fuel efficiency of or seemingly mysterious phenom- one candle than to curse the dark- “breakthrough” gas additives or ena. I’ve spent more than fifteen ness.” To me this reflects not only devices; a dentist can examine years researching all manner of the goal of science and skepticism alarmist claims about the dangers putatively unexplained phenom- but humanism itself: Instead of of fluoridated water or amalgam ena, including ghosts, chupaca- merely complaining about prob- fillings; and so on. Anyone with bras, miracles, crop circles, UFOs, lems we face, we should work to a willingness to learn and share and much more. It’s a subspe- solve them; we should investigate is welcomed. The fundamentals cialty in a rarefied field; there’re to understand the world and use of skepticism are not difficult to only a handful of people in the learn, but they are often counter- world who do these science-based that information to make the intuitive and require study. investigations and conduct exper- world a better place. Sometimes that involves explaining to the public why alternative medicines I have yet to have a person don’t work (even when they ap- pear to); sometimes that involves name an occupation or hobby comforting a terrified family by explaining that their home’s that doesn’t have some angle strange nocturnal sounds are not into pseudoscience or evil spirits. Skepticism benefits the world in innumerable ways. paranormal claims. Today, astrology is a bit of a relic, and Uri Geller has finally (if tacitly) admitted he’s a ma- gician. But as longtime skeptics know, our work is never done. Discredited ideas and fanciful fallacies never go away but in- stead reappear as old wine in new Skepticism is inherently mul- iments testing paranormal claim- bottles, repackaged in fashionable tidisciplinary, and that is one of ants. There are other equally terms for a gullible new genera- the things I find most intriguing important roles in skepticism, tion. Pseudoscience, superstition, about it. Magicians and psy- but this is the one I’ve adopted— chologists help explain how we along with my writing, editorial and nonsense will always be with can be fooled—and how we fool work, and public outreach. us in some form, wasting human ourselves. Folklorists help us un- Any contributions I’ve made resources (money, time, effort) derstand how myths and legends to skepticism and science literacy and preying on the vulnerable. As influence our lives and inform are owed in no small part to my long as there is darkness, skeptics will be there to fight for the light our worldviews. Scientists help being able to draw upon the wis- I design, conduct, and publish re- dom and expertise of exceptional amid a chorus of curses. search that tells us what’s true colleagues. Through my work about the world. Skepticism is a at CFI, I’ve met a constellation Benjamin Radford is a research fel- big tent, and there’s room for ev- of amazing people and personal low with CSI, deputy editor of S - eryone when people focus on the heroes, including Randi, Sagan, work rather than sowing discord Elizabeth Loftus, Jan Brunvand,  I, and author, coauthor, over real or imagined ideological Phil Klass, Carol Tavris, Martin or contributor to over twenty books.

44 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer How I Got Hooked on the Skeptical World SUSAN GERBIC

rowing up in Salinas, California, during the 1970s, if people to each other even though you wanted to know anything, the outlets for find- I knew no one. They must have G ing it out were minimal. We relied on the newspaper, been quite amused. I had never been surrounded by such smart radio, and a couple of TV channels for our information. If people before. I should have been you wanted more detail, there was always the Encyclopedia completely intimidated, but they Britannica and the public library. Finding anything critical were so nice. My confidence of the paranormal back then was difficult. (completely faked) and their re- If it was mentioned, it was one. My subscription began with action to it allowed me to find my inevitably sensationalized—either the September/October 1997 people, and I had never before felt advocating for the phenome- issue. Inside I found answers to so accepted. non or leaving you with “no one lots of questions—about ghosts, After that weekend, I was in- really knows. . . .” I was extremely psychics, Bigfoot, all that fasci- vited by Carol and Ben Baumgart- gullible and naive, had no one nated me. I learned about things ner to attend Ray Hyman’s to ask, and the Cold War was in I had never thought of, and upon Skeptic’s Toolbox (a CSICOP full swing. It was a time of badly reading some articles I thought, workshop held in Eugene, Ore- wanting to believe in the para- “People believe that?” Other arti- gon), and after that weekend in normal, life after death, and that cles made me say, “Wait, that isn’t August 2002, I was completely a caring deity would not allow real?” In early 2002, I received a hooked on this world. WWIII to happen. That is just flyer from CSICOP (now CSI); Fast-forward a few years, and what life was like then. only an hour drive away there everything completely changed; When I discovered S- would be a gathering of skeptics. the Internet became popular and  I magazine in 1996, I walked in and decided to change nearly everyone had email. The it was eye-opening. I believe the my life. I acted as the hostess, in- James Randi Educational Foun- first issue I picked up was the viting people to sit at a large table dation (JREF) forum allowed me January/February “Star Cradle” I had chosen and introducing to meet other local skeptics, which

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 45 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration

allowed me to cofound Monterey millions of people I will never ence, grief . I have or- County Skeptics in 2007. Then meet. GSoW has been about ganized several projects (again Facebook expanded the commu- the people in our community. calling on our community—look nity even further. JREF cruises I wanted to support those who up Operation Bumble Bee, Op- were without Internet, which were doing the science, writing eration Ice Cream Cone, and forced us to sit and talk for long the articles and books, lecturing, Operation Tater Tot for more hours. I met more amazing peo- and podcasting. Not only so that information). ple, again building even stronger when they are in the public eye I want to thank CSI for giv- communities. Finally, I attended readers will have something to ing me an opportunity to speak a lecture where was see, but because I want people to to you; I would never ever have speaking about Wikipedia and know our history, to be inspired imagined that my name would be why skeptics should care about by our spokespeople as I am. printed in the pages of S- it. Months passed and I finally My personal focus in the  I as it has been sev-

GSoW has been about the people in our community. I wanted to support those who were doing the science, writing the articles and books, lecturing, and podcasting.

started making small edits, community mostly has been to eral times. Sometimes I think I’m completely self-taught. I started support people and projects—to still faking the confidence and mentioning on Facebook what I find, train, and motivate people you are just too nice to call me on was doing, and people asked me to do more to make our com- it. Congratulations on forty years questions. When people asked if munity stronger and grow. I’m a of amazing work, S I might talk to their group and major advocate for conferences, I; I hope we can tango I then more people were inter- as I know from personal expe- together for many more. ested, eventually I had to take it rience that great things hap- seriously; that was the birth of pen when people meet face to Susan Gerbic is founder of the Guerrilla Skepticism on Wiki- face. Share a glass of something Guerrilla Skepticism on Wikipedia pedia (GSoW). and learn together. Outside of (GSoW) project and cofounder of The project is, and always has GSoW, I try to remain relevant, the Monterey County Skeptics. She been, about more than repairing to be a thorn in the side of my is a CSI Scientific and Technical Con- Wikipedia in order to educate favorite purveyors of pseudosci- sultant.

46 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer The Day the World Changed . . . for Me RICHARD SAUNDERS

hen I was twelve years old, UFOs were real. More Guide to UFOs by Brian Bell. As than that, they really were from other planets and I write this, I am flipping over to W piloted by real aliens. There was a real monster liv- Google search and looking at the cover. How the memories flow ing in Loch Ness and real tracks were left behind in the back! snow by the real Bigfoot. Some people had ESP, and oth- At one stage for a school art ers could really bend spoons with psychic power. What an project, I screen-printed a draw- incredible world it was for me in 1977. ing of a UFO, classic saucer shape, onto a T-shirt with the By the time I was thirteen or words “Watch the Skies.” thereabouts, inspired by TV se- I was happy with my limited ries such as Leonard Nimoy’s In capacity to research these matters: Search Of . . . and books on UFOs, I had my books (a few more could I created a questionnaire sheet be found in the school library), (using a template from a long the odd TV show, the odd news forgotten magazine or book) for report of a sighting, and of course my friends to fill out if they had stories and legends. really seen a UFO. My memory Then everything changed. tells me I ended up with ten or It was 1980 or maybe 1981, so reports. The questions were and I was home on a Sunday af- something like “What time of ternoon to watch a popular TV day was it? Were you alone at the show of the time, Great Myster- time? Can you draw what you saw ies of the World, which more or in the space provided?” It was so less combed the world looking interesting. No, it was much for other TV documentaries on more than just interesting—it was anything strange and under sixty deeply fascinating. minutes (including commercial Interests come and go during breaks). On this particular Sun- the teenage years, but somehow day, the documentary aired was the paranormal remained when James Randi in Australia produced other fads faded from my mind. by Dick Smith. Apart from re- Mostly it was UFOs, with my membering him from an episode parents happy to indulge this pas- of Happy Days and seeing live the sion—at least I was reading! For time he was thrown off an Aus- someone with mild dyslexia (why tralian TV talk show (search the is that word so hard to spell?), Internet for Don Lane and James reading anything was a positive Randi to find it), this was the first move for me. One of the titles I time I’d seen Randi in action as remember was A Young Person’s it were. So, I sat there and over

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 47 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration

the next hour watched Randi who also deeply believed things? and a life member of Australian and Smith put a number of water It’s one of those coincidences, Skeptics and a fellow of CSI, I dowsers to a test in a field “on the the ones that many New Agers have tested many, many dows- outskirts of Sydney” (the field has insist are “fate,” that around the ers and others for not only the long since gone, replaced with same time Carl Sagan’s Cosmos Australian Skeptics prize but also modernity). It was all very inter- TV series was broadcast in Aus- for the JREF $1,000,000 prize, esting and entertaining, and in tralia. It was the one-two punch played a part in the downfall of the end the results showed clearly of reason. The episode featuring Power-Balance, produce a skep- that all the dowsers had failed. the Betty and Barney Hill UFO tical podcast, and (now in its thir- Then came the moment, and story was particularly powerful. teenth year) perform a skeptical

People might well be wrong or right, but testing them to find out for sure is even more interesting and engaging than I could ever imagine. It was for me the gateway to science.

for me it was life-changing, when Mysteries and claims of the science show for school students. Randi turned to the assembled paranormal held such a fascina- That’s what you get from watch- dowsers and said, “Of the dowsers tion for me, but now there was ing Randi and Sagan when you’re who are here today . . . I’d like to a new aspect, a new perspective fifteen! see a show of hands. How many for me to consider. People might I highly recommend you take still believe in ?” All the well be wrong or right, but testing forty-four minutes and watch hands shot up. What? What them to find out for sure is even James Randi in Australia on You- just happened? What? I just saw more interesting and engaging Tube. One day I’ll tell you the them all fail, without question all than I could ever imagine. It was story of how in 2001 I found the fail . . . but . . . they all still be- for me the gateway to science. only known copy, recorded by lieve in dowsing? This moment So it wasn’t photos of Mars famed Australian Skeptic Barry really struck a chord with me. It (although they were very cool), Williams off the TV onto VCR I was and still is one of the best new discoveries about biology, or in 1981. examples of how humans believe the promise of solar power that things and keep believing no mat- tipped me, led me to having an ter what. understanding of the method of Of course, the way I believed science. It was James Randi and Richard Saunders, a CSI fellow, is in things did not suddenly change his testing of a paranormal claim the host and producer of The Skep- (apart from seeing that water and Carl Sagan’s soothing tones. tic Zone podcast from Australia, life dowsing was a delusion), but at I wonder how many other people member of Australian Skeptics, and least for a start I could see how can report the same? performer with the Mystery Investi- the dowsers fooled themselves Now I look back over the past gators science show for schools. He and how they could be wrong, all sixteen years of my heavy involve- loves to travel to skeptical events of them. And if they could be so ment with the international skep- around the world not only to speak wrong, then why not other people tical movement. Twice president but to learn as well.

48 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Skeptical Activism from the Bottom Up MICHAEL MARSHALL

or someone who may well be the only full-time skepti- U.K. government’s support for cal investigator in the United Kingdom, my exact route homeopathy in the National F into skepticism is somewhat hard to recall. Lacking Health Service (NHS) to the tune of some £4 million, nearly any previously unshakable belief in something entirely $6 million). unsubstantiative, there was no Damascene moment of dra- The stunt itself was nothing matic volte-face for me. Instead, my discovery of the skep- new: taking a homeopathic “over- tical movement came piecemeal, in what is doubtlessly a dose” in order to highlight that the story familiar to many people: watching a TV show led to remedies contained nothing but finding a podcast, which opened up a world of skeptical sugar. What made our plan differ- ent from previous, similar stunts media, which prompted me to search for local skeptics and, was the scale: we aimed to have soon, to set up a skeptics society. skeptics all across the country tak- When I cofounded the Mer- making the barrier to entry as low ing a public “overdose” at precisely seyside Skeptics Society in early as the ability to find an adequate the same time, at 10:23  (the 2009, Skeptics in the Pub groups venue and to book a suitable time being a reference to the Avo- had only recently begun to spread speaker. This openness has un- gadro constant, which can be used beyond the well-established Lon- doubtedly done wonders for the to explain the inert nature of ho- don event, with groups in Oxford rapid growth of the U.K. skeptical meopathic products). To achieve and Leicester before our own in community in the past decade. this goal, we needed to convince . If numbers tell a story The inevitable downside to a skeptical groups around the coun- of success, the growth in the movement with no center is a lack try to get behind our plan and to Skeptics in the Pub movement is of a figurehead to drive activism join us. Fortunately, as I’ve seen on encouraging: seven years on, there and direct enthusiasm into effective many occasions since, when you are over forty active local groups. pursuits, meaning opportunities to approach a skeptical group with In effect, there’s barely a town in counter pseudoscience directly and an appeal for support rather than a the country that doesn’t have a publicly sometimes pass by, with prescriptive diktat, you invariably nearby skeptical presence. local groups focusing their energies find a passionate, enthusiastic, and The organic growth of the on their own local activities. warm response. More often than U.K. skeptical scene arguably This downside is certainly not not, skeptics want to help and demonstrates both the strength insurmountable if approached want to be part of an idea they can and weakness of a bottom-up, correctly. In fact, within a year of see the value of. decentralized movement. Appar- the formation of the Merseyside Our 2010 10:23 Campaign ently uniquely across the skeptical Skeptics Society, we had started was an overwhelming success, world (or certainly across Europe the 10:23 Campaign—a series of with 300 skeptics in thirteen and North America), there is no publicity-raising stunts designed cities swallowing sugar pills in official organization at the head to drive home to the public illustration of the cause. The of my country’s skeptical efforts. the inefficacy of homeopathic stunt garnered national attention, With no central body determin- remedies (a pseudoscience that remaining the top story on the ing what can and can’t be done, carries a particular embarrassment BBC website for the whole day local chapters run autonomously, for British skeptics, given the and appearing in every national

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 49 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration

newspaper. So successful was the once-synonymous with a cause meopathy funding in the city as a campaign that in 2011—aston- drift away as real life and other direct result of our campaigning. ishingly, in retrospect, less than interests take precedent. We intend to keep that pressure two years after we first founded The ability to circumvent that up around the rest of the coun- the Merseyside Skeptics So- fatigue is one of the real strengths try, and having the time and the ciety—we took the campaign of having a dedicated and pro- manpower to stay on top of this worldwide, approaching every fessional skeptical body, which is issue gives us a genuine chance skeptical group we could find, why I was so delighted to become of a positive outcome. And, nat- offering the same appeal for en- possibly the country’s only full- urally, our chances of success are thusiasm, aid, and action. On time skeptic when I became the amplified enormously by having February 6, 2011, 1,700 skeptics project director of Simon Singh’s the support of a vibrant and pas- in seventy cities across thirty-two charity The Good Thinking So- sionate skeptical community. countries—including a research ciety in 2014. Among the many If our chances of dislodg- scientist in Antarctica—collec- projects we’ve undertaken in the ing homeopathy from the pub- tively took part in a stunt that was past two years has been to system- lic purse once-and-for-all give dreamt up by a small, local group atically chase up and challenge me cause for cautious optimism, we certainly can’t afford to be complacent. Skepticism is still a It is the skeptic’s lot to growing movement, accelerated by the advent of social media but repeatedly tread old still finding its feet as a broader social phenomenon. There have ground, as long-debunked been growing pains, and to a de- ideas require constant gree those are inevitable. Some skeptical positions even appear to re-skewering. have penetrated the mainstream: when I first became an active skeptic in 2009, it seemed like the public overwhelmingly conflated the term homeopathic with herbal or natural—indeed, this was the in Liverpool one afternoon. As the funding of homeopathy by very point the 10:23 Campaign one illustration of the effect, sales the NHS, going deeper into the aimed to address in the public of homeopathic products across specifics of funding agreements, consciousness. These days, come- all of Poland fell by 17 percent health policies, and commission- dians have entire routines based after the 10:23 Campaign made ing processes than any voluntary on the nonsensical tenets of ho- the national news there. skeptic has had the time, interest, meopathy—and popular routines at that. As successful as the 10:23 and expertise to do in the past. Perhaps the skeptical mes- Campaign was, NHS funding of In doing so, we’ve been able for sage is starting to break through. homeopathy in the United King- the first time to accurately expose Or, perhaps, that may simply be dom was far from defeated. This, where in the country public funds confirmation bias. I’ll withhold perhaps, is the biggest downside are spent on homeopathy and to judgment until I have more data. to an autonomous and decentral- work with lawyers to bring legal I After all, I am a skeptic. ized skeptical community: only so challenges against regional fund- much can be achieved with lim- ing decisions with encouraging Michael (“Marsh”) Marshall is the ited volunteer time, and volun- signs of success. project director for the Good Think- teers rightly focus their attention The space to methodically and ing Society, a U.K. charity headed up and activism where their interest tactically investigate has, for per- by Simon Singh. He is also the vice takes them. It is the skeptic’s lot haps the first time, put homeopa- president of the Merseyside Skep- to repeatedly tread old ground, thy’s place on the National Health tics Society, lectures at a number of as long-debunked ideas require Service under genuine pressure, U.K. universities on journalism and constant re-skewering. For some with our first real major victory ethics, and regularly interviews pro- skeptics, this same-old familiar- coming in June of this year when ponents of pseudoscience for the ity can breed fatigue, and names NHS Liverpool agreed to end ho- Be Reasonable podcast.

50 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Timeline, 2001–2016

For the twenty-fifth anniversary observance of CSICOP (now CSI) and the Skeptical Inquirer in 2001, we published “A CSICOP Timeline: A Capsule History in 85 Easy Steps” in our May/June 2001 issue. You can find it on our website at http://www.csicop.org/si/show/csicop_timeline. The timeline covered a series of highlights, among them our founding at SUNY Buffalo April 30–May 1, 1976, and publication of the first issue of SI (initially called The Zetetic) that fall; news in 1978 that CSICOP was generating “tremendous enthusiasm” among scientists, scholars, media, and the public; the start of construction of a new building, the Center for Inquiry, in Amherst, New York, in 1990; court sanctions imposed against Uri Geller in 1992 for prosecuting a “frivolous” case against CSICOP; CSICOP’s campaign calling for newspaper astrology-column disclaimers; various announced expansions of our mission; adding the subtitle “The Magazine for Science and Reason” to the Skeptical Inquirer in 1994; our increase from a quarterly to bimonthly publication and from digest-size to magazine-page size in 1995; asteroids Skepticus 6630 and Kurtz 6629 named for CSICOP and its founder Paul Kurtz in 1996; cover stories on CSICOP investigative delegations to China in 1988 and 1996; SI’s first “Science & Religion” issue in 1999; our January/February 2000 cover story on ten outstanding skeptics of the twentieth century; and reports on our many CSICOP conferences over the years, national and international. Here now, in observance of our fortieth anniversary, is an update of that timeline adding key events over the most recent fifteen years. 2001 confidence games and financial scams, Los Angeles. Druyan’s remarks become July evolution and , urban a cover article, “Ann Druyan Talks About S  I republishes Ray legends, fringe psychotherapies, space Science, Religion, Wonder, Awe . . . and Hyman’s classic “Proper Criticism,” long age pseudoscience, plus concurrent Carl Sagan,” in the November/December an influential guide to good skeptical sessions that challenge attendees’ 2003 SI. investigation. choices and flexibility. November 23–26 September September CSICOP conference “Hoaxes, Myths, and Second SI “Science & Religion” issue On the first anniversary of the 9/11 Manias” is held over four days in Albu- includes articles by Arthur C. Clarke, terrorist attacks on New York and Wash- querque, New Mexico, with sessions on James Lovelock, Steven Weinberg, and ington, DC, SI’s cover article, “A Skeptical Internet scams, urban legends, Planet Neil deGrasse Tyson. Look at September 11” by Clark R. Chap- X hoaxes, and the Bible Code. Speakers man and Alan W. Harris, examines reac- include Eugenie Scott, Kenneth Feder, October 3–5 tions to the attacks and calls for evaluat- Robert Carroll, Jan Harold Brunvand, Wal- CSICOP and the Russian Academy of Sci- ing such situations more rationally so as lace Sampson, Phil Plait, Dave Thomas, ences cosponsor a special international not to multiply the damage by inducing and Eric Krieg. Ray Hyman is presented conference in Moscow on “Science, irrational fears. The article invoked tre- CSICOP’s In Praise of Reason Award. Anti-Science and the Paranormal.” mendous controversy. It is republished CSICOP’s Paul Kurtz cochairs with two in The Best American Science and Nature 2004 distinguished Russian scientists, Valerii Writing 2003, edited by Richard Daw- March Kuvakin and Edward Kruglyakov. A ple- kins, who in his introduction says the SI publishes its third special “Science nary session adopts a formal resolution article “far from denigrating the tragedy, & Religion” issue, including articles by “Against Antiscience, Charlatanism, and offers hope” and is “a type specimen of Pascal Boyer, Paul Kurtz, Taner Edis, Irrationalism in Russia,” published in the how the scientific way of thinking might Susan Haack, and Walter Isaacson. July/August 2002 SI along with articles influence our lives for the better.” by Kurtz, Kruglyakov, and Russian as- CSICOP Fellow Elizabeth Loftus is elected tronomer Yuri N. Efremov. 2003 to the National Academy of Sciences; March CSICOP Fellows Steven Pinker and Jill A Quarter Century of SI Covers, 1976– S  I subject index is im- Tarter are among Time magazine’s 100 2001, displayed. proved and placed online. most influential people in the world; and CSICOP Fellow Neil deGrasse Tyson is 2002 June 21 set to host a four-part NOVA miniseries, June 20–23 Ann Druyan and Elizabeth Loftus speak Origins. Nearly 500 people attend CSICOP’s at a small conference “The Assault on Fourth World Skeptics Congress in Bur- Reason” marking the opening of the new October 8–10 bank, California. It features sessions on auditorium of Center for Inquiry–West in Fifth World Skeptics Congress, spon-

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 51 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration sored by CSICOP and its Italian counter- June new Office of Public Policy on Capitol Hill part, CICAP, is held in Abano Terme, Italy, CSI’s second Robert P. Balles Prize in in Washington, DC. near , “in the land of Galileo,” with Critical Thinking goes to Ben Goldacre for a sold-out attendance of 500. The theme his weekly column, “Bad Science,” in The May–September is “Solving Mysteries.” Galileo’s legacy Guardian (UK). With the cover article “Global Climate shines throughout with special event Change Triggered by Global Warming” “The World of Galileo Galilei,” featuring September by NASA scientist Stuart A. Jordan and Italian physicists and historians discuss- On the thirtieth anniversary of first publi- a news report on the latest IPCC Climate ing his contributions and demonstrating cation of the S  I, philos- Report showing “unequivocal” warming, his experiments. Another highlight is “A opher and CSICOP founder and chairman SI begins its coverage of—and enters Magical Evening with James Randi,” an Paul Kurtz does a major review and into the fray over—climate change and extended on-stage conversation between reappraisal of SI and its impact, “Science the resistance to climate science. Nega- Randi and protégé and SI columnist Mas- and the Public: Summing Up Thirty Years tive reader reaction begins immediately. simo Polidoro. of the S  I.” Many who email and write are furious, others “disappointed”; they say they 2005 November wanted SI to “debunk” climate science, January SI publishes a special issue on “Science not support it. In an editor’s column in CFI announces a 13,600-square-foot + Art,” dealing with the science of art, the the next issue, SI’s editor says science expansion of its Amherst, New York, art of science, science in art, and art in goes where the evidence leads and the headquarters; a New Future Fund capital science, all guest-edited and introduced magazine will continue to present and campaign funds it. by Austin Dacey. The lead article is by evaluate the “best evidence” on climate Steven Pinker. change. In a special five-page Follow-Up November section in the September/October issue, SI publishes a special issue on “Evolution 2007 SI publishes a number of those critical and the Intelligent Design Wars” with January letters, some cancelling their subscrip- eleven articles, commentaries, reports, CSICOP’s Executive Council announces tions, plus several supportive letters and statements. that the organization’s name has been and a lengthy reply from author Stuart shortened from Committee for the Jordan. September 17–18 Scientific Investigation of Claims of CSICOP cosponsors (with CFI and Pensar the Paranormal (CSICOP) to the Com- October 13–15 magazine) the First Ibero-American mittee for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI). CSI’s World Congress on Scientific Inquiry Conference on Critical Thinking in Buenos mission statement is also revised to and Human Well Being, cosponsored by Aires, Argentina. replace “investigation of paranormal and CFI and the Chinese Research Institute fringe-science claims” with the broader for Science Popularization, is held in 2006 “investigation of controversial or extraor- Beijing, China. Eminent speakers include March dinary claims.” The changes (approved CSI Fellows Paul Kurtz, Murray Gell- A special event celebrating CSICOP’s at an Executive Council meeting Sep- Mann and Sir Harold Kroto (both Nobel thirtieth anniversary and the dedication tember 27, 2006, in Oak Brook, Illinois) laureates), Daniel Dennett, Lawrence of CFI’s new building in Amherst is held are announced and elaborated on in the Krauss, and Lin Zixin. China’s speakers there March 31–April 1, 2006. January/February 2007 SI. Reasons include geographer and climatologist stated include the desire for a shorter Qin Dahe, a member of the IPCC Working SI hails U.S. District Judge John E. Jones name, dislike of association with the Group I on the physical science basis of III’s landmark Kitzmiller v. Dover ruling word paranormal, and a determination climate change, who had just learned of that intelligent design is not science and to emphasize “critical inquiry, scientific the group’s cowinning the 2007 Nobel that teaching it is unconstitutional. We thinking, and the scientific outlook.” Peace Prize. publish extended excerpts from his rul- Founder and chairman Paul Kurtz adds ing. CSI Fellows Barbara Forrest and Eug- an editorial, “New Directions for Skepti- November enie Scott are among those instrumental cal Inquiry. ” SI publishes a special three-article sec- in bringing about that reasoned outcome. tion on Vaccines and Autism: Myths and March Misconceptions. May SI publishes a special expanded issue CSICOP announces winners of its first on “Science, God, and (Non)Belief,” 2008 Robert P. Balles Prize in Critical Thinking: opening with the new CFI Declaration in January Ray Hyman, Joe Nickell, and Andrew Defense of Science and Secularism and SI publishes a three-part report on Chi- Skolnick for articles in the May/June with articles by, among others, Frederick ropractic and Homeopathy: Under the 2005 S  I on “Testing the Crews, Alan Dean Foster, Michael Ruse, Microscope. Girl with X-Ray Eyes.” Daniel C. Dennett, Mark Newbrook, and the late Carl Sagan. June Ken Frazier’s “In Defense of the Higher CSI’s third Robert P. Balles Prize in Crit- Values” commentary, based on his talk March 31 ical Thinking goes to New York Times at the CSICOP thirtieth anniversary obser- Members of the CSICOP Executive science writer Natalie Angier for her book vance, is published in the July/August SI. Council speak on “Restoring Scientific The Canon: A Whirligig Tour of the Beauti- Integrity” at a morning session in CFI’s ful Basics of Science.

52 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Pseudoscience, is published by Pro- longtime CSICOP Executive Council December 2008 metheus Books. Three broad areas are member and SI columnist, dies at age Ronald A. Lindsay, a PhD philosopher covered: Science and Skeptical Inquiry; ninety-five; the September/October SI and a lawyer, is named president and Critical Inquiry and Public Controversies; publishes fifteen pages of tributes. CEO of the Center for Inquiry, home to and Understanding Pseudoscience, In- CSI and the Council for Secular Human- vestigating Claims. July ism (CSH). Founder Paul Kurtz remains CSI’s Balles Prize in Critical Thinking goes chairman of all three organizations for July to New Yorker staff writer and author the time being. Thus begins a difficult CSI’s fourth Balles Prize in Critical Think- Michael Specter for his book Denialism. three-year period of transition to a per- ing goes to physicist Leonard Mlodinow manent new leadership structure for the for his book The Drunkard’s Walk: How October 9 combined organizations. Randomness Rules Our Lives. CSI Executive Council meets for the first time in several years in Los Angeles and October 9–11 discusses plans for increasing reach and 2009 CSI sponsors a three-day workshop on visibility of CSI and SI. January “UFOs: The Space-Age Mythology” in Countering a contention that UFOs are Tucson, Arizona. Fall passé, SI devotes most of its January/ CFI branches and numerous skeptics February issue to “The New UFO Interest: November groups celebrate the thirtieth anniver- Scientific Appraisals,” beginning with SI publishes a special issue on “Skepti- sary of Carl Sagan’s Cosmos and the sec- “UFOlogy 2009: A Six Year Perspective” cism 2.0” guest-edited and introduced ond Carl Sagan Day (November 9) with a by Robert Sheaffer and followed with by Ben Radford with essays by a new variety of events around the country. articles by David Morrison, James Oberg, generation of skeptics: Daniel Loxton, Dave Thomas, Andrew Fraknoi, James Reed Esau, D.J. Grothe, Tim Farley, Jeff 2011 McGaha, Kingston A. George, and three Wagg, Blake Smith, Karen Stollznow, January French scientists on thirty years of offi- Timothy Binga, Justin Trottier, Barry Karr, CSI and CFI issue a joint statement about cial UFO studies in France—plus UFO-re- and Heidi Anderson. In another first, an Walmart’s “irresponsible marketing and lated regular columns by Joe Nickell and alternative version of the cover is posted promotion” of ineffective homeopathic Sheaffer. The articles touch a nerve with online. “flu medicine” Boiron Oscillococcinum. UFOlogists, who pillory our authors with a series of online personal attacks. November March SI begins publication of its first regular CSI announces election of twelve more February humor page, “The Last Laugh.” Ben Rad- fellows from five countries. The S  I Facebook page, ford edits. edited by Barry Karr, is started. It soon April 1–2 becomes a leading online source of 2010 CSI Executive Council, meeting in news on science and skepticism; Karr January Denver, establishes “A Pantheon of begins an SI feed the next month. CSI collects eighteen S  I- Skeptics”—a roster of twenty-seven dis-  articles by or about Carl Sagan tinguished deceased fellows of the Com- April and places this entire “Carl Sagan Collec- mittee for Skeptical Inquiry. They include CFI’s Twelfth World Congress is held in tion” on its csicop.org website. Isaac Asimov, Steve Allen, Francis Crick, Bethesda, Maryland, with a session on Martin Gardner, Carl Sagan, Glenn T. Sea- Darwin, Lincoln, evolution, and ID and March borg, and B.F. Skinner. The Pantheon is talks and other sessions on defending Fifteen notable figures in science and published in the July/August SI and on science against political interference, skepticism are elected fellows of the the csicop.org web site. the history and future of the universe, Committee for Skeptical Inquiry—the the science of climate change, skep- largest number of new fellows elected at July ticism and science, and the future of one time since the Committee’s original Steven Novella, MD, of Yale University skepticism. Major awards are presented founding. James Randi returns as a CSI School of Medicine is honored with CSI’s to Paul Kurtz, James Randi, and Law- fellow. Robert P. Balles Prize in Critical Thinking rence Krauss. “for your tremendous body of work June including the Skeptics Guide to the Uni- May In an editorial, “The Winter of Our Discon- verse, Science-Based Medicine, Neuro- SI publishes noted climatologist Ste- tent,” SI’s editor begins, “This has been logica, your S  I column phen H. Schneider’s succinct “Climate quite a winter of discontent for climatol- ‘The Science of Medicine,’ as well as your Change: Skeptics vs. Deniers,” presaging ogists and climate science. Seldom has tireless travel and lecture schedule on a statement signed by a majority of CSI an entire scientific field been subject behalf of skepticism.” fellows six years later. to such a concentrated barrage of bad news and external attacks. . . .” SI publishes four articles on “9/11 Con- June spiracy Theories: Ten Years Later.” An anthology of thirty-nine articles from May 22 the S  I, Science Under Martin Gardner, one of the revered Robert Sheaffer publishes a book of his Siege: Defending Science, Exposing founders of modern skepticism and SI “Psychic Vibrations” columns from

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 53 ODYSSEYS IN SCIENTIFIC SKEPTICISM: 40th Anniversary Celebration

1977–1997, titled Psychic Vibrations, June doctorate, her ninth, from Chapman Uni- with cartoon illustrations from SI by Rob CSI’s Balles Prize in Critical Thinking goes versity for her “work . . . in advancing the Pudim. to Richard Wiseman for his book Para- public understanding and acceptance of normality. evolution.” September SI publishes the first of a three-part September October 24–27 series on “Civilizations Lost and Found: SI publishes a special issue on “Art and The CFI Summit, a joint conference of Fabricating History” by CSI Fellow Ken- Skepticism,” edited by Ben Radford. Ten CFI and its affiliate organizations CSI neth Feder and three anthropologist/ contributors represent a variety of ap- and CSH, incorporating CSICon 3, is held archaeologist/historian colleagues. proaches to science, skepticism, and art. in Tacoma, Washington. The keynote speaker is Bill Nye. Others include Susan October 27–30 October 20 Jacoby, Eugenie Scott, Richard Wise- CSI launches a new conference series Paul Kurtz, founder of CSI, CSH, and CFI, man, and Leonard Mlodinow. Eugenie with CSICon 2011 in New Orleans, ded- philosopher, prolific author, and inter- Scott is presented the CFI/CSI Lifetime icated to “scientific inquiry and critical national leader of the modern skeptical Achievement Award. thinking.” Bill Nye is keynote speaker and humanist movements, dies at age and given the “In Praise of Reason eighty-six. A subsequent memorial ser- November Award,” CSI’s highest award. Previous vice on the Amherst campus of the State Kendrick Frazier’s commentary “Why We recipients include Carl Sagan, Murray University of New York at Buffalo hears Do This: Revisiting the Higher Values of Gell-Mann, Stephen Jay Gould, Martin dozens of friends and colleagues speak Skeptical Inquiry” is published in the No- Gardner, Ray Hyman, and James Randi. and lasts an entire day. Twelve pages of vember/December S  I. Executive Director Barry Karr later re- tributes from colleagues are published ports attendees’ comments have been in the January/February 2013 S  2014 “amazingly positive and overwhelmingly I. June enthusiastic.” Paul Offit, MD, noted medical scientist October 25–28 and vaccinations proponent, receives CSI’s second CSICon conference, ded- CSI’s Balles Prize in Critical Thinking November icated to founder Paul Kurtz, is held in for his book Do You Believe in Magic? In a report “Culling Non-science from Nashville. Richard Wiseman emcees. The Sense and Nonsense of Alternative Scarce Medical Resources,” authors Speakers include Lawrence Krauss, Medicine. Eugenie V. Mielczarek and Brian Engler Anthony Pratkanis, Carol Tavris, David examine all research by the National Gorski, Sara Mayhew, Chris Mooney, Jon June Center for Complementary and Alterna- Ronson, Elizabeth Loftus, Massimo Po- CFI launches new “Keep Health Care Safe tive Medicine and find no discoveries lidoro, Indre Viskontas, and Joe Nickell. and Secular” campaign with the goal of that justify spending further taxpayer Plus a live two-hour taping of Skeptics keeping pseudoscience and religion out dollars to maintain its existence. Their Guide to the Universe podcast with Ste- of health care. results are published as cover article ven Novella and colleagues. “Measuring Mythology” in the January/ July February 2012 S  I. 2013 The first SI “Science and Religion” issue January in seven years opens with “Would the 2012 Physician Harriet Hall and Steven No- World Be Better Off Without Religion? January vella join CSI’s Executive Council. Five A Skeptics Guide to the Debate,” by With no fanfare, the S  I new CSI fellows are elected. and Rachel Ammirati. It begins publishing in full color on inside generates strong reader response. Other pages. June articles are by Barry Kosmin, Harriet Biomedical engineering professor and Hall, Ryan Shaffer, Mark Rubinstein, and May 18–20 Forbes columnist Steven Salzberg and Charles M. Wynn Sr. The Sixth World Skeptics Congress, co- CSI Senior Research Fellow Joe Nickell sponsored by CSI, the European Council each receive CSI’s Robert P. Balles Prize September of Skeptical Organizations, and the Ger- in Critical Thinking, announced in June SI publishes two interviews with Ann man skeptics group GWUP, is held in Ber- and presented at the CFI Summit in Druyan, hailing the new television series lin. Participants include Eugenie Scott, October. Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey, which Ray Hyman, James Alcock, Harriet Hall, she and collaborators created, wrote, and , Simon Singh, Massimo Three CSI fellows receive prestigious produced. It wins four Emmy Awards. Polidoro, Chris Mooney, and Amardeo national awards: The American Psycho- Sarma. A joint resolution expresses deep logical Association awards its 2013 Gold November concern about “the growing tolerance, Medal Award for Life Achievement in the SI announces it will celebrate the acceptance, and even promotion of Science of Psychology to Elizabeth Lof- centennial of Martin Gardner’s birth by pseudoscientific and ideas and tus; NASA awards its NASA Exceptional republishing some of his classic S - practices within scientific, academic, Achievement Medal to David Morrison  I columns. It begins with his and educational institutions.” “for exceptional achievement in ex- first, “Lessons of a Landmark PK Hoax,” posing the 2012 doomsday hoax”; and from Summer 1983, about James Ran- Eugenie C. Scott receives an honorary di’s Project Alpha.

54 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer December CSI announces $25,000 challenge to Eight more CSI fellows sign “Deniers Are “Deniers Are Not Skeptics” statement, Heartland Institute about reality of cli- Not Skeptics” statement, bringing the signed by forty-eight CSI fellows and mate change, if thirty-year moving aver- total to fifty-eight, plus four CSI Scientific issued by CSI, generates worldwide dis- age of global land surface temperatures and Technical Consultants. cussion. It calls on news media to stop is not higher at the end of 2015 than at using the word skeptic for those who end of 2014. Heartland doesn’t take up February refuse to accept the reality of climate the challenge. S  I improves and ex- change. pands its digital availability. SI is now July available via Apple Newsstand and also 2015 Two CSI Balles Prizes in Critical Thinking on all other major platforms through the January are awarded: one to the creators, produc- Pocketmags app. Subscribers can now Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and its ers, and writers of Cosmos: A Spacetime access full issues of S  I sister organization Council for Secular Odyssey and one to CSI Fellow and and download the appropriate app for Humanism formally merge into Center chemist Joe Schwarcz for his book Is their devices either online or through for Inquiry, both becoming programs of That a Fact? iTunes or other apps. CFI. No change to CSI’s mission or SI’s content. August 17 February In comments filed with the FDA, CFI The twenty-fifth anniversary of CSI March again urges the FDA to subject homeo- newsletter Skeptical Briefs in its current Ronald A. Lindsay announces he will pathic drugs to the same testing require- format; Barry Karr edited through 2000; step down at end of 2015 as CFI pres- ments as conventional drugs. Ben Radford has coedited or edited ident and CEO; later in the September/ since then. October SI, he writes an upbeat article September 25 on the future of the organization as a The Associated Press announces a March leading and much-needed advocate of change in its widely used AP Stylebook CFI brief to the U.S. Supreme Court critical thinking and inquiry. as a result of CSI’s December 2014 argues that alleged expert scientific “Deniers Are Not Skeptics” statement. testimony used in implementing Texas’s An extended Commentary, “Organized Those who don’t accept climate science restrictions on abortion rights is “flawed Skepticism: Four Decades . . . and Today” or dispute man-made global warming pseudoscience” that the court cannot by Kendrick Frazier, gives perspective should no longer be called “skeptics,” constitutionally rely on. on forty years of scientific skepticism the AP said, but “climate change doubt- worldwide. ers or those who reject mainstream April 30–May 1 climate science.” The announcement The fortieth anniversary of founding of April specifically refers to the Committee for CSICOP, now CSI. Drawing on expertise from CSI medical Skeptical Inquiry’s concerns that non- experts, Michael De Dora presents CFI’s scientists who reject mainstream cli- July invited testimony at an FDA hearing in mate science have improperly usurped CSI reports results of first professional Washington urging the agency to regu- the word skeptic. The stylebook change reader survey of S  I late homeopathic products. becomes a major worldwide news story. subscribers in years. They show strong reader approval for our credibility, inter- May November est, and usefulness and “several things SI publishes special issue on “Medical CSI announces election of ten more to be concerned about.” Misinformation.” Six articles deal with distinguished scientists and scholars promotion of dangerous pseudoscience as fellows. October as medicine by anti-vaccination people, Fortieth anniversary of publication of Vol. quack health gurus, scientific journals, In an SI cover article, CSI Fellow Larry Kus- 1, No. 1, Fall/Winter 1976, of S  and even entire governments. che revisits the Bermuda Triangle “Mystery I (initially named The Zetetic). Delusion” he decisively debunked with a June classic book forty years earlier. CSICon Las Vegas conference, October CFI “Reason for Change” conference held 27–30. Speakers include Richard Daw- at founding site, Amherst, New York, CFI Library receives the Henry Gordon kins, Lawrence Krauss, Elizabeth Loftus, blends scientific skepticism and secu- collection of books on magic and conjur- Eugenie Scott, James Randi, Maria Kon- larism/humanism. Featured sessions on ing from the family of the late CSI fellow. nikova, Jill Tarter, and Paul Offit. GMOs, Crank Anthropology, Alternative Medicine, Climate Change, and Philoso- 2016 phers on Science . . . and God. January Robyn E. Blumner, head of Richard Daw- CSI Executive Council meets at conclu- kins Foundation for Reason & Science sion of CFI conference in Amherst—a (RDFRS), is appointed CEO of the Center public session in the morning, a busi- for Inquiry; also announced is that the ness meeting in the afternoon. RDFRS will merge with CFI. Ronald A. Lindsay stays on as CFI president during —Compiled by Kendrick Frazier the transition period. and the editors of S  I

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 55 Nuclear Power and the Psychology of Evaluating Risk Could it be that opponents of nuclear energy contribute to worsening global warming by failing to evaluate its risk rationally?

DANIEL A. VOGEL

56 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer ith climate change and environmental devastation can consider this question even while we remain environmentalists who oth- threatening the quality of human and nonhuman erwise support attempts to overcome W life, our minds inevitably turn to energy, in partic- global warming through large-scale development of renewables, overcom- ular to alternatives to fossil fuels. Since the Cold War, en- ing dependence upon petroleum and vironmental movements have had a tendency to lump nu- gas, improving conservation, reducing clear energy with the horror of nuclear weapons. (Websites energy use, protecting wildlife, and ex- ploring ways to reduce population and for Friends of the Earth, , and Sierra Club, for consumption. Most of us who read sci- example, publish reports only on how “dirty” and “danger- ence articles and journals are aware that ous” nuclear power can be, without considering any oppos- nuclear energy produces waste, and we know that it is radioactive rather than ing evidence.) This despite the fact that many green think- gaseous, the latter typically including ers, well aware of nuclear energy’s potential dangers, have such pollutants as carbon dioxide, sul- fur, or mercury (Barett 2014). attempted to argue for its at least short-term benefit in the I am thus intrigued that even evi- face of the global warming challenge (including George dence-based people discuss this issue Monbiot, Ansel Adams, Mark Lynas, Patrick Moore, Ted in a hush, looking around to make sure nobody is listening. Could it be that Nordhaus, , Jeffrey Sachs, James Lovelock, the psychological effect of a word such and Daniel Blumstein to name just a few). as radioactive somehow seems so much harsher than that of words such as mer- Laypeople such as myself who read favorably or neutrally about nuclear cury, even though the latter contami- science journals and attempt to keep power; Bernie Sanders, a significant nates fish (but, on the friendlier side, at an open mind about complex political promoter of renewables, has opposed it; times fills our teeth); sulfur, even though realities are aware of several accidents Republicans, on the other hand, speak it is a dangerous air pollutant (but then at nuclear plants but are also facing the mostly in its favor and also support again is also in our antidandruff sham- scientific evidence that nuclear power drastic deregulation of environmental poo); and carbon dioxide, even though is, on average, extremely safe, envi- protection and remain mostly, but not it comprises 82 percent of our green- ronmentally clean, and plays virtually completely, deniers of global warming house gas emissions (National Research no role in heating up our planet (Bi- science itself). Council of the National Academies ello 2013). It is difficult to maintain a It is thus reasonable to wonder if 2010) but is also what we breathe out skeptical position with so many ongo- part of the opposition to nuclear energy and is that which plants trade for our ing opposing stances among our lead- is psychological in nature—rooted in valuable oxygen. I was puzzled that the ers (among Democrats, Hillary Clin- problems about how we evaluate risk United States had 100 nuclear power ton has spoken at various times either itself rather than entirely rational. We plants producing only 19 percent of its

We could of course attempt to balance the scary side of that word nuclear with the truly miraculous side, the one that saves lives thanks to X-ray and CT scans and radiation therapy for cancers.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 57 energy yet is planning to build only six gage in all the time, I became curious sediment, or plant samples. Quoting a more by the 2020s despite the threat of as to how we evaluate risk when we 2008 article by the American Nuclear global warming from fossil fuels. think of what is, after all, a flower of Society, the website further states that However, to many people just the scientific genius born of the quantum “the average radiation dose to people word radioactive seems to connote mechanical revolution of the twentieth living within ten miles of the plant was nothing at all nice. We think of Na- century. Human psychology renders eight millirem, and no more than 100 gasaki and Hiroshima and of Marie politics very complex, since arguments millirem to any single individual. Eight Curie, the first female Nobel Prize win- are often fueled by emotion (Weston millirem is about equal to a chest X-ray, ner who died of exposure to that which 2007), by poor logic that does not rely and 100 millirem is about a third of the she studied. The terrifying thought of a on statistics to support itself, and by average background level of radiation nuclear explosion or bomb must so ig- numerous biases such as the confirma- received by US residents in a year.” nite our existential fear of death that we tion bias in which people who hold a The Chernobyl accident, seven find it hard to separate it in our minds strong opinion will tend to promote all years later in 1986, was vastly more from nuclear energy, a form of power the apparent evidence that props it up destructive and is indeed considered generation with the potential to pro- without weighing that evidence against the most severe nuclear power disaster mote life, if only by eliminating the var- the facts that tear it down. of all, Fukushima included. Statistics ious threats to it that fossil fuel–based The Three Mile Island accident was provided by scientists of the United energy poses to it at all times. We could the worst nuclear accident on United Nations (World Health Organization of course attempt to balance the scary States soil, occurring in 1979, now more 2005; 2006) who evaluated the damage side of that word nuclear with the truly than a third of a century ago. In sum- to human and nonhuman life show that miraculous side, the one that saves lives marizing the effects, an Environmental twenty-eight workers in the plant died thanks to X-ray and CT scans and radi- Protection Agency (EPA) website says within a few months, and more than ation therapy for cancers, or that helps “the accident did not raise radioactiv- a hundred others developed radiation us determine the age of archaeological ity far enough above background lev- injuries. Initially 115,000 people in artifacts, can kill germs in sewage, and els to cause even one additional cancer the immediate area were evacuated in even treat our drinking water. death among the people in the area, 1986 with a subsequent evacuation of As someone in the clinical psycho- but measures of beta radiation were not 220,000 from Belarus, the Russian Fed- logical field who is aware of the various included” (Perham 1980). The EPA eration, and Ukraine. Up until 2005, cognitive distortions we humans en- found no contamination in water, soil, there were around 6,000 reported cases of thyroid cancer of children or adoles- cents from those latter three locations Human psychology renders politics very who had been exposed at the time of the accident (as a side note, the American complex, since arguments are often fueled by Cancer Society [2015] reports that five- year survival rates are near 100 percent emotion and by poor logic that does not rely for stages I and II, 93 percent for III, on statistics to support itself. and 51 percent for IV). However, this nightmarish outcome seemed due in part to failure of the then-Soviet Union to follow proper safety protocols, as the apparent main cause of increase in the rate of thyroid cancer was the ingestion of milk containing abnormally high lev- els of iodine radionuclides. This should not have been, and in most civilized countries would not have been, permit- ted once the accident occurred. (With such statistics, we should also be mind- ful that they should be compared with the average expected cancer rate, rather than assuming all cancer was attribut- able to the same source; see the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation 2008.) Of 600 workers at the plant that fateful day, 134 received high doses; twenty-eight died within a few months,

58 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer and nineteen more died from 1987 to had just twelve fatalities in 2012 in climate change trends and that other 2004. While all workplace-related America (Boden et al. 2013) but re- renewables may not be able to suffi- deaths are tragic and should be mini- sulted in roughly 60,000 concussions ciently accomplish that, which would mized through improved safety stan- (Saal 1991). Driving cars on the high- be the risks of worsening climate dards, as industries learn from their way caused 35,200 car fatalities in 2015 change (frequent heat waves and heavy mistakes, surely even these mortality in the United States (National High- downpours, reduced water supplies, figures from one of the world’s only two way Traffic Safety Association 2016). increased wildfires, insect outbreaks, serious nuclear plant accidents appear Drinking alcohol resulted in 88,000 tree die-offs, threats to agriculture and infinitesimal when compared to the an- nual mortality rates of other industries. In 2014 alone just in the United States, 248 people died in crop production, An over focus upon these three accidents 156 in animal production, 181 in min- ing, 874 in construction, 341 in man- while omitting the safety of the millions of ufacturing, 159 in landscaping, and so days of use of the several hundred other on (Bureau of Labor Statistics 2014). We also need to consider the projected plants is a bias with potentially serious effects of global warming in likely af- fecting millions. consequences for our planetary future. Unlike in Chernobyl, no fatalities seemed to have resulted in Japan from overexposure to radiation from the 2011 Fukushima plant accident. How- ever, cancer risks were assumed to in- crease in the years to follow (Nebehay 2013). We must remember that it was a post-earthquake thirteen-meter-high tsunami that overcame the ten-meter- high power plant wall that contributed the most to this accident, a very seri- ous—but clearly relatively avoidable— issue of construction location and one not likely to affect the vast majority of today’s plants. (Japan’s prime minister later condemned building the nuclear power plant so close to the coast.) There are many more both rela- fatalities in the 2006 to 2010 period in food supply, flooding of coastal regions, tively reassuring as well as relatively the United States (Centers for Disease and soil erosion, according to Karl et catastrophic accounts of the effects of Control and Prevention 2015). Hav- al. 2009, disregarding their virtually in- this latter disaster on marine life. My ing sex causes 0.6 percent of all sudden calculable economic costs). Those risks goal is not to minimize the impact of deaths in the United States from such need to be compared with such costs as the prior two major nuclear power plant causes as subarachnoid hemorrhages, the tragic but relatively minimal effects accidents, all of which were highly un- aneurysm ruptures, or sudden cardiac to human life and environment of three fortunate and should be intensely stud- arrests (Banerjee 1996). Climbing a prior nuclear accidents (which have in ied scientifically to maximize safety ladder resulted in 111 fatalities in 2011 turn produced valuable information protocols of existing and future plants. in America (Centers for Disease Con- leading to enhanced safety protocols My intention instead is to highlight the trol and Prevention 2014). and improved reactor technologies). human problems in evaluating risk that It seems that when people evalu- In fact, an over focus upon these three may potentially and seriously impede overall safety. ate the risks of nuclear energy, which accidents while omitting the safety of How about comparing such risks as I have described certainly exist and the millions of days of use of the sev- with other activities with which we are should not be denied, they are often eral hundred other plants is a bias with most familiar? Crossing the road had not evaluating the comparative risks potentially serious consequences for our 4,735 fatalities in 2013 in the United upon climate change of not increasing planetary future. States (National Highway Traffic nuclear energy even with those risks, One bias commonly employed in Safety Administration 2014). Sending assuming that it may play an import- this context is referred to as the “defor- our teens to play American football ant role in slowing down or reversing mation professionnelle,” in which peo-

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 59 ple tend to believe everything shared by stating that far too many antinuclear tistics, such as the few I have peppered their profession. However, in this case energy proponents meet the technical throughout this article in an attempt to the term is being employed to mean definition of an ideologue (defined generate a comparative sense of dangers that shared by their political perspec- on merriam-webster.com as “an often between the risks from prior nuclear tive. In the 1970s and 1980s, for exam- blindly partisan advocate or adherent accidents and rates of other fatalities ple, before the end of the Cold War, of a particular ideology”). Increas- that occur each and every year. That is antinuclear weapon activists tended ingly today with our understanding of how we may evaluate whether flying in to similarly include nuclear energy as human psychology, we are beginning to a plane above the clouds, which often antilife, let alone anti-green. An omis- appreciate the fact that particular ideo- feels precarious (and has had its share sion bias seems at play too, focusing on logical positions on events can express of serious accidents), is vastly safer than the extremely rare but potentially very only partial truths precisely because of driving in a car on solid ground (even dangerous accidents and ignoring the the confirmation bias involved. People including those accidents). In this vein, benefits of all those times when nuclear who over-identify with ideologies but former President Bill Clinton stated energy plants worked well, which is are poor in evaluating the benefits and that “the problem with any ideology is most of the time. For example, France weaknesses of their arguments tend to that it gives the answer before you look presently produces 75 percent of its en- blind themselves to any of the strong at the evidence” (Hungrycoyote 2012). ergy from nuclear, has done so peace- stances against their own positions, op- Germany is one of the industrialized countries (along with Japan) to have de- commissioned nuclear power use as a response to its very vocal and large anti- nuclear movement. This has resulted in an apparently impressive development of renewable energy but an increased reliance on coal, adding significantly to its production of carbon dioxide, which it has pledged to reduce by 40 percent (Wilson 2014). In this case at least, an- tinuclear green rhetoric finds itself wors- ening rather than reducing our planetary woes, and thereby undermining its claim to the term green. Anti-nuclear activists are surely not planning to boycott trains because thou- sands of Irish and Chinese lost their lives laying down their tracks in the United States in the 1860s, far more than died in the Chernobyl disaster that often feeds existing desires to boycott nu- clear energy. The same may be said of There are risks millions of us take every the hundreds who have died even into day that vastly surpass that of operating modern times building skyscrapers. There are risks millions of us take every Chernobyl and Fukushima on their worst days. day that vastly surpass that of operat- ing Chernobyl and Fukushima on their worst days, including riding highways to work or taking powerful medications with known benefits and costs. Numerous books exist about the sci- fully, is the world’s greatest exporter of position that they may find emotionally ence of nuclear energy that may act as energy, and makes three billion euros a threatening. antidotes to public misinformation. A year doing so. Seventeen percent of its This is why, as Daniel Kahneman, good one is Prescription for the Planet energy is actually from recycling nuclear recipient of the 2002 Nobel Prize (Blees 2008). It discusses not only the fuel. In that sense, nuclear is an excel- in Economic Sciences, has argued integral fast reactor, which can recycle lent renewable source (World Nuclear (Kahneman 2011), humans would more and generate vast amounts of energy Association 2015). closely approach the truth by allowing safely from all existing nuclear waste I hope I am not being too strong in their judgments to be informed by sta- (the buildup of which is often the pri-

60 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer mary reason for opposing nuclear), but Banerjee, A. 1996. Coital emergencies. Postgrad Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: National Medical Journal 72(853): 653–656. Academies Press. also the plasma converter that has the Barett, J.T. 2014. The differences between nuclear Nebehay, S. 2013. Higher cancer risk after potential to solve our garbage problem. power and fossil fuel-burning power plants. Fukushima nuclear disaster: WHO. Reuters Both sides of the political spectrum Available online at http://classroom.synonym. (February 28). Available online at http:// com/differences-between-nuclear-power- seem to entertain blind spots that frus- www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/28/us-japan- fossil-fuelburning-power-plants-21387.html. nuclear-cancer-idUSBRE91R0D420130228. trate growth in this area. The Right/ Biello, D. 2013. How nuclear power can stop Perham, C. 1980. EPA’s Role At Three Mile conservative wing tends to deny the very nuclear warming. Scientific American (December Island. Available online at https://www.epa. 12). Available online at http://www.scientific science of climate change while the Left/ gov/aboutepa/epas-role-three-mile-island. american.com/article/how-nuclear-power-can- Saal, J.A. 1991. Common American football liberal wing tends to deny the very science stop-global-warming. injuries. Sports Medicine 2(2)(August 12): 132– of atomic energy, as it tends at times to Blees, Tom. 2008. Prescription for the Planet: The 147. Painless Remedy for Our Energy and Environ- United Nations Scientific Committee on the do in other areas such as vaccines. Some mental Crises. Seattle: BookSurge Publishing. Effects of Atomic Radiation. 2008. The liberals may associate vaccines with the Boden, B.P, I. Breit, J.A. Beachler, et al. 2013. Chernobyl accident. Available online at http:// corporate world (for example Big Pharma Fatalities in high school and college football players. American Journal of Sports Medicine 41: www.unscear.org/unscear/en/chernobyl.html. or corporate farming), which it tends to 1108–1116. Weston, D. 2007. The Political Brain. New York: see as an unregulated enemy of the peo- Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014. Census of fatal Public Affairs Books. Wilson, R. 2014. Why Germany’s nuclear ple, much as some conservatives may as- occupational injuries. Available online at http:// www.bls.gov/iif/oshcfoi1.htm. phase out is leading to more coal burning. sociate climate change with governmen- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2014. The Energy Collective (January 20). Available tal regulation, which it tends to see as an Occupational ladder fall injuries-United States online at http://www.theenergycollective. enemy of free trade. 2011. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/ com/robertwilson190/328841/why-germanys- mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6316a2.htm. nuclear-phase-out-leading-more-coal-burning. Promoting nuclear energy as a valu- ———. 2015. Alcohol use and health. Available World Health Organization. 2005. Chernobyl: able option is not silencing the advo- online at http://www.cdc.gov/alcohol/fact- The true scale of the accident. Available online cacy of other renewables such as solar, sheets/alcohol-use.htm. at http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ Hungrycoyote. 2012. President Bill Clinton: releases/2005/pr38/en/. wind, geothermal, bioenergy, hydro- ‘The problem with any ideology.’ Daily Kos ———. 2006. Health Effects of the Chernobyl gen, ocean (tidal and temperature), or (September 21). Available online at http:// Accident and Special Health Care Programmes. of improved energy storage and con- www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/21/ Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organ iza- 1134679/-President-Bill-Clinton-The- tion Library. servation. Psychological science can problem-with-any-ideology#comments. World Nuclear Association. 2015. Nuclear power assist such hard sciences as well in the Kahneman, Daniel. 2011. Thinking, Fast and Slow. in France. Available online at http://www. realm of human behavior, for example New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/ Karl, T.R., J.M. Melillo, and T.C. Peterson. Countries-A-F/France/. in curtailing the mindlessly addictive 2009. Climate Change Impacts in the United acquisition and consumption of goods States. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Daniel A. Vogel is a that are not likely to increase our hap- Press. Available online at https://nnsa.energy. gov/sites/default/files/nnsa/inlinefiles/karl%20 clinical psychologist piness, in reducing our population, and et%20al%202009.pdf. at a Chicago hospi- in promoting ways of living based on National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. I tal. He maintains an meaning and wisdom. 2016. NHTSA data shows traffic deaths up 7.7 percent in 2015 (July 1). Available online interest in the health References at http://www.nhtsa.gov/About+NHTSA/ psychology of acute Press+Releases/nhtsa-2015-traffic- care as well as in the American Cancer Society. 2015. Survival rates deaths-up-07012016. for thyroid cancer. Available online at http:// ———. Pedestrians. 2014. Available online at application of psy- www.cancer.org/cancer/thyroidcancer/over- http://www.nhtsa.gov/Pedestrians. chological principles to political and phil- viewguide/thyroid-cancer-overview-survival- National Research Council of the National rates. Academies. 2010. Advancing the Science of osophical issues.

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Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 61 [ LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

SI Reader Survey | Trump’s Conspiracies | Trust and Science | Zika Fears | Map of Heaven? | ESP Review | Obesity the most basic moral principles moves across the sky to where Warming Is True,” Bulletin of in any religion or ethical social it is viewed in the constellation Science, Technology and Society, the Magazine for Science and Reason Vol. 40 No. 4 | July/August 2016 system. Astrologers tap this prin- Pisces, wouldn’t it, if it has any pp. 1–4, 2016, and in SI, “The ciple as bait using slogans such as influence at all, influence every- Consensus on Anthropogenic “as above, so below” and “stars one, not just those born years Global Warming,” November/ incline, they do not compel.” As- ago when Pisces was in the same December 2015). Powell argues trologers use the bait of a caring place? An instructor of mine, that scientists who study climate cosmos of stellar relationships fifty years ago, called astrology change and publish in the climate underscored by mythological a “pseudoscience,” and nothing literature implicitly accept the

Does E=mc2 themes to invite their clients into has happened to change my mind consensus view that such climate Imply Mysticism? a conversation with “the God” since. change is real. Why would they A Skeptical Response Geocentrism to Science Denial Documentary Deceptions or “the Universe” that speaks be working in this field if they Skeptical Carolyn Munn Modern Art through the astrologer. A curious did not accept this basic premise? Published by the Center for Inquiry in association with the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Hayford, California client will likely find any number Powell’s analysis focuses, there- of useful or agreeable suggestions I’m mystified as to why critiques fore, on the few published papers and insights—a few good ones of astrology never seem to in- that contradict this consensus Astrology’s Bait are enough to justify the cost clude what, to me, seems to be view. Depending on the assump- of a Caring Cosmos So, what’s the harm? The the most obvious one: Where tions he makes, the frequency of harm becomes apparent when did astrologers come up with such dissent is well below 1 per- Geoffrey Dean’s SI article “Does the mask of authority falls off the their cause-effect relationships cent and arguably as low as 0.1 Astrology Need to Be True? face of a charlatan posing as the in the first place? For example, percent. A Thirty-Year Update” (July/ voice of the universe. Then the what first led anybody to believe Cook has led the efforts in August 2016) got me thinking client wonders what nonsense he that Venus had any influence Australia to explain and defend back to the early 1980s when or she may have absorbed after over one’s love life? And how did climate science, and he has been I learned to set up horoscopes so many often-expensive sessions they go about verifying that hy- subject to considerable abuse using an ephemeris. I learned to with an astrologer: Have I been pothesis? Shouldn’t the burden from climate deniers. Maybe 97 debunk the art of reading some- acting like a Virgo with an Aquar- of proof for making such claims percent is good enough when one’s chart soon after, but Dean’s ius ascendant because my chart be on the people making them? battling those who deny any SI article by the same title thirty under one system said I was one? Show your work, astrologers! scientific consensus, but readers years ago was a great help. Did my parents in India agree to of SI deserve a more nuanced I noticed when doing a read- Richard S. Russell arrange my marriage to an abu- discussion. From the published ing or having one done that as- Madison, Wisconsin sive man based on an astrologer’s trology’s complicated richness literature, the dissent from the opinion? Turning to astrology is in variables allows for just about Climate Change climate change consensus is never neutral. It is an influence anything in interpretation. My nearly zero. AGW deniers, like game with a host of labels and and Science Denial conclusion was that a seasoned evolution deniers, may make a suggestions that can change be- astrologer will never be wrong if John Cook (a fellow of CSI) has lot of noise in the press, but they havior for better or for worse but that astrologer understands that used an analysis of the peer-re- are very rarely to be found among under a constricted worldview. It the goal of a reading is to satisfy viewed scientific literature to the scientists actually publishing is like pretending to pour the cos- a client through agreement. Cli- estimate the degree of acceptance research. mos into a bottle and serving it ents of astrologers reminded me of anthropogenic global warm- David Morrison up during a reading—something of volunteers performing for a ing (AGW) among publishing (CSI fellow) I have called metaphysical snake stage hypnotist. The latter en- climate scientists. His estimate Saratoga, California tertainer requires people on stage oil. Unlike the licensed therapist, was 97 percent, a number that willing to comply with sugges- the astrologer’s art lays the entire has been widely quoted and that Scientists present information tions whether they enter a trance responsibility on the client and he continues to defend. The about global warming in an un- or not, trance being relative to her relationships with the stars. problem is that (1) most of his convincing fashion. We oversell. how much peripheral awareness Thus, the astrologer can beg us evidence is based on polls with We have seen consensus before. remains in the volunteer. The to not blame the messenger if small responses and not all from Milk alleviates stomach ulcers, horoscope with all its angles, things do not work out based on climate scientists; (2) the correct while eggs are bad, and margarine symbols, and signs provides a dis- the message. way to find out what scientists is good. Doctors (authority fig- traction, a place to focus aware- Joe Szimhart say is to use the scientific litera- ures) get it wrong, so why should ness in a cosmic playground that Birdsboro, Pennsylvania ture; and (3) scientists in mature climatologists be believed? feeds into narcissistic traits—it is fields are unlikely to state their We also undersell what we re- all about you that the starry sky Finishing “Does Astrology Need adherence in their papers, the as- ally know. CO2 is visually trans- universe cares about. to Be True?” I’ve thought of an- sumption on which Cook bases parent but absorbs and emits Any caring person wants the other reason for doubt. his 97 percent estimate. some infrared (IR) radiation. universe to care for them and talk Every day, the sun, moon, James L. Powell (also a CSI Some of the emitted radiation to them whether through lan- stars, etc., shine down on us all fellow) has published a much escapes, but the rest heats the guages of religion or science. We equally. That also includes cos- more realistic analysis of publi- atmosphere and Earth’s surface. coax nature to yield her remedies mic rays, solar wind, gravity, plus cations in climate science (“Cli- CO2 effectively acts likes an insu- and she often does. This may be whatever else might be coming mate Scientists Virtually Unan- lator. We know that adding more an artifact of reciprocity, one of our way. If Saturn, for example, imous: Anthropogenic Global CO2 will warm Earth, but deter-

62 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer mining by how much is harder. of climate change and the scare Climate Change were twenty physics.” Is it significant? Earth’s sur- tactics of political activists posing times more likely to underestimate Regarding the first headline, face has an average temperature as scientists—or scientists engag- rather than overestimate climate greenness and blueness are re- of about 290°C above absolute ing in political activism. impacts. garded as secondary properties in zero. The estimated warming is Locke’s sense, are private sensory Taras Wolansky Wolansky also agrees with 1°C now, or less than 0.5 per- experiences, and are generally re- Kerhonkson, New York Robert Clear, who argues that cent. Can a trace gas really block consensuses have been wrong in garded as nonmaterial nowadays enough IR to make this big a dif- the past so why should we trust (although getting any two philos- John Cook replies: ference? Consider the following. the consensus on climate change ophers to agree on something is Paint containing 0.0002 ounces S I received now? We can rely on the consensus like pulling teeth). per square inch of pigment is a number of letters in response to on human-caused global warming Regarding the second ex cerpt, nearly opaque; a column of air my article about consensus. Inter- because its foundation is a consil- the billions of K mesons (aka above a one-inch square contains estingly, we were accused of both ience of evidence—many inde- “kaons”) out there will surely 0.14 ounces of CO2. overestimating and underestimat- pendent observations pointing to take umbrage at Hassani’s ex- We know enough about the ing the level of scientific agreement a single, coherent conclusion. clusion of them from physics, as factors that affect climate to rea- that humans are causing global However, Wolansky does raise they have been particles in good sonably conclude that the warm- warming. an important point—we need to standing ever since their discov- ing we have seen is due to human In claiming we underestimate distinguish between the science of ery in 1947. activity, but future projections the consensus, David Morrison ac- climate change and political activ- In fact, Hassani means to still cover a wide range. Do we cused us of assuming that scientists ism. The science of climate change exclude Zen koans from physics, wish to continue sailing on our who agree with the consensus will can be found in the peer-reviewed which he systematically misspells present course when we already state it in their published research. scientific literature. This is the ap- as “kaons.” In view of the incom- see clouds, and the forecast indi- We make no such assumption and proach we took in our analysis of patibility of quantum mechanics cates that there may be a storm? in fact explicitly explore the issue peer-reviewed studies of global cli- and general relativity theory, na- of “no position” papers in Cook mate change, which found 97 per- ture may well be posing her own Robert Clear koans to us, and they’re pretty Berkeley, California et al. (2013). Naomi Oreskes cent agreement on human-caused (2007) predicted that as a consen- global warming. tough ones. In his article “A Skeptical Re- sus strengthens, the proportion of References Douglas M. Stokes sponse to Science Denial” (July/ no position papers should increase. Ann Arbor, Michigan Anderegg, W.R.L., J.W. Prall, J. Harold, et al. August 2016), John Cook writes, Our analysis confirmed this pre- 2010. Expert credibility in climate change. “We found a number of stud- diction. Proceedings of the National Academy of I read Sadri Hassani’s article, but Sciences of the United States of America ies . . . consistently finding a Nevertheless, it is important 107: 12107–12109. when I got to the conclusion I 97 percent consensus among to avoid the incorrect assumption Carlton, J.S., R. Perry-Hill, M. Huber, et al. was confused. He says “The E 2015. The climate change consensus extends publishing climate scientists on that every scientist who publishes beyond climate scientists. Environmental of E=mc2 is always the energy of human-caused global warming.” a “no position” paper about climate Research Letters 10(9): 094025. material particles that can either Cook, J., D. Nuccitelli, S.A. Green, et al. 2013. Setting aside the inherent wigg- change must endorse the consensus. Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic produce the mass on the right or liness in concepts such as “pub- This assumption of near-univer- global warming in the scientific literature. be produced by the latter.” But Environmental Research Letters 8(2): throughout the article, Sadri kept lishing climate scientists” and sal consensus necessarily leads to 024024+. “human-caused global warm- a conclusion of near-universal Doran, P.T., and M.K. Zimmerman. 2009. emphasizing that the mass of a Examining the scientific consensus on cli- photon is zero. If photons have ing,” this is like somebody in 99.9 percent consensus—a cir- mate change. Eos, Transactions American 1600 claiming that 97 percent of cular finding that conflicts with Geophysical Union 90(3): 22-23. zero mass, then the photon’s philosophers agree Jesus Christ is Freudenburg, W.R., and V. Muselli. 2010. Global energy is zero (multiplying zero direct surveys of the climate science warming estimates, media expectations, and divine. “What about the other 3 community. A number of studies, the asymmetry of scientific challenge. Global by anything—even a number as percent?” “Oh, the Inquisition Environmental Change 20(3): 483-491. big as the square of the speed using a variety of sample sizes and Oreskes, N. 2007. The Scientific Consensus hasn’t caught them yet!” methods, find around 3 percent on Climate Change: How Do We Know of light—is still zero). And we We’re Not Wrong? Climate Change: What If dissident climatologists are dissension among climate scientists know that photons have energy. It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our New Agers absolutely love solar being intimidated into silence— (Anderegg et al. 2010; Doran and Grandchildren. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. power. So—given that Einstein’s and there is ample evidence they Zimmermann 2009; Carlton et equation is arguably the most are—then the 97 percent figure al. 2015). recognizable in the world—the becomes about as meaningful as Taras Wolansky implied that E 2 and Mysticism only logical conclusion is that a North Korean election return. we overestimated the 97 percent = mc photons do have mass. There is I’m old enough to remember consensus because “dissident cli- The banner (large type) excerpts the population scare of the late no mention in the article about matologists are being intimidated in Sadri Hassani’s article “Does rest mass, momentum, relativity, 1960s and early 1970s. In the E=mc2 into silence.” The numbers actually Imply Mysticism?” (July/ and quantum effects—or a more end we learned that while pop- August 2016) state: “It makes point in the opposite direction, complicated version of Einstein’s ulation growth was real enough, as much sense to say that energy with intimidation of climate sci- equation that uses velocity and it was not so much the “Popula- is nonmaterial as to say that the entists resulting in their down- momentum. I don’t blame mys- tion Bomb” that was supposed greenness of grass or the blueness playing the implications of their tics for being confused. to have destroyed civilization by research. Freudenberg and Muselli of sky is nonmaterial” and “De- now. In the same way, we need to (2010) found that predictions by spite its primacy in mysticism Robert Felten distinguish between the science the Intergovernmental Panel on there is no room for kaons in Los Gatos, California

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 63 2 The E = mc article was easy to energy of an object that has mass SI Reader Survey ence Watch,” “Obesity: ‘Fat understand for me, an “artist” of Chance’ or Failure of Sincerity?” (any mass). It should be thought In the July/August 2016 issue, the mechanical engineering per- July/August 2016). of as stating the possibility of ex- our esteemed editor expresses suasion and occasional scientist. I share Krause’s skepticism tracting E amount of energy out of surprise at the comparatively A young man I often talk with about explanations for obesity m kilogram of mass. One kilogram low levels of interest in the tra- has been rather deep into East- that point to genetics, addictions, of uranium sitting in a stockpile ditional subjects of SI, such as ern philosophy. I have found a and or other biological causes, has no energy. But when it is made UFOs, , etc. How- way to start communication. He to enter in nuclear interactions, its ever, when we keep in mind the but I find his focus on weakness often uses the word energy other mass can turn into energy, which high educational achievements of will equally unsatisfying. None than as Mr. Newton would have is carried away by the nuclear par- of the readership, this should of these theories provides an ex- suggested. It occurred to me to ticles produced in the interaction. not be surprising: the traditional planation for the surge of obesity suggest to him that our disagree- A photon is always moving (by subjects have been so thoroughly in recent decades. ment was really only one of “se- definition, at the speed of light) explored that they no longer According to the Centers for mantics.” We were simply using and therefore carries motional en- intrigue. Climate change, false Disease Control, today approxi- that word, and others, with dif- memories, alternative medical mately one third of U.S. adults ferent definitions in mind. That ergy. This energy is, by the way, modes, and others that attract are obese (body mass index of very quickly aided our commu- imparted to the photon when it more interest are all subjects that 30 or greater). Throughout the nication without making him is created. For example, when a are less familiar and require more 1960s and 1970s, this figure was think his belief was under attack. neon atom emits a red photon (as data and more rigorous analysis. less than 15 percent. What has We need more of that sort of in a red laser pointer), it transfers Of course these attract higher in- changed? persuasive technique at the level some of its internal energy to the terest. Biological explanations don’t others will accept, please—not by photon. So, how does one explain But what will the next survey, account for this trend because abandoning the good technical the energy of a photon? We cannot 2 ten years from now, yield? our physiology does not change content of SI, just enhancing our use E = mc because this equation, as mentioned above, is good for that quickly. Similarly, an ex- ways of helping communication Hewitt White planation that rests on personal a bit. Wishful thinking? objects at rest. It turns out that al- Falcon Heights, Minnesota though E = mc2 is the most famous choice and decision-making sug- Lindley “Lin” Manning equation in physics, it is not the I appreciated finding out the gests today’s Americans are mor- Reno, Nevada most general. There is another rel- stats on the readership. I’m won- ally or constitutionally weaker ativistic equation, which includes dering whether the low scores on than those of previous genera- tions. I doubt this is true. Sadri Hassani replies: the velocity v of the object, and conspiracy theories, superstition, therefore applies to all particles UFOs, cryptozoology, and ghosts A more plausible explanation I appreciate Mr. Stokes’s comment whether they are moving or at rest are due to the fact that, compara- for the increase in obesity would on the two excerpts in my article. (the equation reduces to E = mc2 tively speaking, those things have acknowledge the many changes in My point of emphasizing the when v is zero). This more gen- less chance of ever being proven. our economy and culture. Since nonmateriality of energy—as a eral equation tells us that the en- I know I’m painting with a broad the 1970s we have continued the property of a material object—was ergy E of a particle that has mass brush, but if someone claimed a transition from a manufacturing to debunk the mystics’ propaganda (any mass) becomes infinite if the novel way of moving items with to a consumer economy. Today that the material mass can turn particle moves at the speed of light. one’s mind or predicting future our economy depends on people into the nonmaterial energy. As Therefore, no object with any mass events, that just seems more selling things to each other, and the next to the last sentence of my can reach the speed of light. A pro- likely (however slightly) than a lot of those things turn out to article clearly indicates, a material ton with a mass of 0.00…00167 anyone producing a verifiable be high in calories. Federal farm object does not turn into energy but kilogram (26 zeros) has been ac- ghostly phenomenon. In other subsidies targeting grains (rather into other material objects carry- celerated to 99.9999991 percent words, some things aren’t just old than fruits and vegetables) help ing energy. of the speed of light in the Large hat, they’re ancient hat. keep the cost of unhealthy foods As for “kaon” versus “koan,” Hadron Collider. And no physicist I bought the whole set of SI’s artificially low. Corn growers are I have to admit that it was an expects these protons to reach light some time ago, and it’s taken the biggest benefactors of subsi- oversight on my part, which nei- speed regardless of how much they awhile to start reading from the dies (over seven billion in federal ther my dyslexic eyes nor my spell are accelerated further. So, if even beginning. Delightful to read dollars in 2014), and some of this checker caught! Nevertheless, the the tiniest particle with mass can- Hyman, Randi, and others, both subsidized corn comes back to us second paragraph of the first quote not reach the speed of light, how good friends and just merely ac- as high fructose corn syrup sweet- on page 48, the context in which can a photon move at the speed of quaintances, back when we were eners and feed for meat animals. I subsequently used the word, and light? The answer is that photon all so young. Part of the reason the five-dollar value meal is so cheap is that our my frequent use of the word “par- has no mass, because if it did, ac- Steve Bauer taxes have already underwritten adox” as a substitute for “koan” cording to the equation mentioned Portland, Oregon should have indicated that my above, it would have an infinite some of the cost. intention was Zen Buddhists’ amount of energy, and that is not On Obesity It is also true that we are less technique and not the elementary acceptable. active. We can buy our value particles discovered in the 1950s. Therefore, even though a pho- Kenneth W. Krause takes on the meals and other fast foods at the Mr. Felten brings up an im- ton carries energy, it cannot have important issue of obesity and drive-thru window without get- portant point concerning the mass any mass because it moves at the comes to the conclusion that the ting out of the car. But many of and energy of a photon, which speed of light. In fact, any particle obese need to make better deci- us who remember the 1960s and was not emphasized in my article. that moves at the speed of light is sions: “The power to choose is 1970s understand how much eas- The equation E = mc2 is the rest necessarily massless. ours—at least for now.” (“Sci- ier it was to be good back then.

64 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer We were thinner because daily ble for their actions—as if they about eating, difficulty dealing by physicists working in the field of life involved more movement had free will. But an appeal to with stress and distress (includ- nuclear physics but by electrochem- and we had fewer high-calorie bad choices as an explanation for ing from weight stigma), lack ists working with batteries or power temptations. Cheap delicious human behavior may be a theory skills for effective life manage- supplies and liquids—scientists food was not the pervasive cul- based on a fiction. ment, are often trauma or abuse extending their work outside their tural phenomenon that it is survivors, have dysregulated their Stuart Vyse zone of competence. today. metabolism by chronic dieting, Stonington, Connecticut While the main lesson from this A focus on weakness of will and have low self-worth. More- experience is indeed that science also has the effect of freeing the As the author of seven books on over, considering “that 70% of was utilized to sort things out, just rest of us from any sense of re- eating and weight and a psycho- the variation in peoples’ weights as Flam also pointed out, there are sponsibility to assist our fellow may be accounted for by inheri- therapist with more than thirty other very valuable lessons in this citizens. Many public health tance” (Rethinking Thin by Gina years of experience treating story: Scientists working outside problems could be approached Kolata, Picador Press, 2007, p. dysregulated eaters with high their areas of expertise can make this way—for example, smoking weights, I’m disappointed that 123), most of what we weigh is huge blunders; theoretical physicists and opioid abuse. We could just Kenneth W. Krause is promot- genetically predetermined. This can “prove” just about anything say that, like the obese, these peo- ing the concept that discernment is a far more complex subject ple have just made bad decisions. of benefits and risks in the envi- than Krause portrays. (some notable physicists did rush in But this approach ignores the ef- ronment is going to change the to try and explain the Fleischmann fects of a person’s social and eco- Karen R. Koenig-Loring and Pons results); it is not wise to thinking and behavior of this Sarasota, Florida nomic environment on behavior. population. The truth is that announce scientific advances at Finally, it seems worth point- while they might be highly ratio- press conferences, and so on. ing out that recent scientific evi- nal in other areas, when it comes Tips on Trusting Science David Clark dence challenges Krause’s sugges- to biological imperatives such as In “The Do’s and Don’ts of Trust- Garland, Texas tion that we still have—or ever eating, we cannot and should ing Science” (July/August 2016), did have—the power to choose. not expect rationality. People author Faye Flam writes: “In the The question of free will has been don’t have mindless or overeating late 1980s, physicists claimed to [FEEDBACK debated for centuries, but a num- problems because they lack the have found a groundbreaking new ber of recent studies by psychol- ability to discriminate between The letters column is a forum on form of energy known as cold fu- matters raised in previous issues. ogists and neuroscientists suggest what is healthy and unhealthy for sion.” The notorious duo “Fleis- Letters should be no longer than that our intuitive feeling of free them or whether or not they’re chmann and Pons” were chemists, 225 words. Due to the volume choice is an illusion. It is prob- being manipulated by culture or not physicists, so Flam’s claim of letters we receive, not all can be published. Send letters as ably an adaptive illusion, and as the environment. should be regarded as a mischar- email text (not attachments) to a result there may still be good The hundreds of eaters I’ve acterization. That is, the infamous [email protected]. In the subject reasons to hold people responsi- treated have irrational beliefs press announcement was not made line, provide your surname and in- formative identi fication, e.g.: “Smith Letter on Jones evolution article.” In- There’s much more available on our website! clude your name and address at the end of the letter. You may also mail your letter to the editor to 944 Deer Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122. Skep ti cal In quir er Here’s just a sample of what you’ll find: Return of the Grief Wikipedia whiz Susan Gerbic takes a closer look at celebrity psychic medium Tyler Henry and his claims of talking to the dead in her special article. Scoping the Sciences LaRae Meadows examines how scientists and skeptics are using the social media app Periscope as a tool for making the ravine between scientific ignorance and scientific knowledge narrower in an effort to improve public understanding.

Skeptical Inquirer | November/December 2016 65 [ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD, EDITOR

SKEPTICAL ANNIVERSARIES by Tim Farley November 4, 1936: After Richard S. Lambert was said to be “off his head” for believing in the bizarre Gef the Talking Mongoose case and other paranormal topics, he brings—and wins—a slander case in London High Court. November 9, 1966: According to one version of the “Paul is dead” legend, Paul McCartney dies in a car accident on this day and is replaced by an (improbably talented) impostor. November 15, 1966: Five people driving by the West Virginia Ordnance Works see what is now known as the cryptid Mothman. November 24, 1971: The famous unsolved “D.B. Cooper” hijacking occurs on a Northwest Orient airplane over southwest Washington State. November 30, 2006: The Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims of the Paranormal (CSICOP) officially changes its name to Committee for Skeptical Inquiry (CSI). December 6, 1986: The first New Zealand national skeptics convention begins (a few months after the founding of the group) in Christchurch. December 10, 1986: court case Edwards v. Aguillard is argued before the United States Supreme Court. December 11, 2006: The International Conference to Review the Global Vision of the Holocaust begins in Tehran, Iran. Many holocaust denialists attend; the United States, Great Britain, the Vatican, and other governments condemn the gathering. December 13, 1976: The first of a two part New Yorker article titled “Microwaves” by Paul Brodeur raises doubts about the safety of microwave radiation, sparking fears nationally. December 15, 2006: The Hungarian national skeptics group Szkeptikus Társaság Egyesület is founded.

Tim Farley is the creator of the website whatstheharm.net. and blogs at skeptools.com. He is a past fellow of the James Randi Educational Foundation.

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66 Volume 40 Issue 6 | Skeptical Inquirer Scientific and Technical Consultants CENTERS FOR INQUIRY www.centerforinquiry.net/about/branches Gary Bauslaugh, Univ. of California at Berkeley Richard H. Lange, Tim Printy, writer and editor, MD, Mohawk Valley Physician amateur astronomer, UFO skeptic, former Luis Alfonso Gámez, TRANSNATIONAL Victoria, B.C., Canada science journalist, Bilbao, Spain Health Plan, Schenectady, NY Navy nuclear reactor operator/division chief, Manchester, NH 3965 Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228 Richard E. Berendzen, Sylvio Garattini, William M. London, Tel.: (716) 636-4869 astronomer, Washington, DC California State Univ., Los Angeles Daisie Radner, director, Mario Negri Pharmacology AUSTIN prof. of philosophy, SUNY Buffalo Martin Bridgstock, Institute, , Italy Rebecca Long, PO Box 300036, Austin, TX 78703 senior lecturer, School of Science, Susan Gerbic, nuclear engineer, president of Georgia Robert H. Romer, Tel.: (512) 454-0977 Griffith Univ., Brisbane, Australia Council Against Health Fraud, Atlanta, GA prof. of physics, Amherst College founder and leader of the Guerilla Skepti- CHICAGO Richard Busch, cism on Wikipedia (GSoW) project John R. Mashey, Karl Sabbagh, [email protected] magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, PA Laurie Godfrey, computer scientist/executive (Bell Labs, then journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England INDIANAPOLIS Silicon Valley), analyst of climate-change Shawn Carlson, anthropologist, Univ. of Massachusetts Robert J. Samp, 350 Canal Walk, Suite A, Indianapolis, IN 46202 denial, contributor to DeSmogBlog and Society for Amateur Scientists, assistant prof. of education and Tel.: (317) 423-0710 Gerald Goldin, Skeptical Science, Portola Valley, CA LOS ANGELES East Greenwich, RI mathematician, Rutgers Univ., NJ medicine, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison Thomas R. McDonough, Roger B. Culver, Steven D. 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C Y E The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are independent and autonomous. N I R T U E Q Representatives of these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Amherst NY 14226-0703. R F O R I N International affiliated organizations listed at www.csicop.org.

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