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Downloads/Bryce Smallsats 2019.Pdf Bugaenko, A Promoting the Belt and Road Initiative and 17 + 1 Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe, from the Perspective of Central and Eastern European Countries Coordinators: Flavius CABA-MARIA Alexandru GEORGESCU Liviu MUREȘAN Radu-Cristian MUȘETESCU © Editura EIKON București, Calea Giulești 333, sector 6 cod poștal 060269, România Difuzare / distribuție carte: tel/fax: 021 348 14 74 mobil: 0733 131 145, 0728 084 802 e-mail: [email protected] Redacția: tel: 021 348 14 74 mobil: 0728 084 802, 0733 131 145 e-mail: [email protected] web: www.edituraeikon.ro Descrierea CIP este disponibilă la Biblioteca Națională a României Promoting the belt and road initiative and 17 + 1 cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe, from the perspective of Central and Eastern European countries / coord: Flavius Caba-Maria, Alexandru Georgescu,Liviu Mureșan, Radu-Cristian Mușetescu. – București: Eikon, 2020ISBN: 978-606-49-0389-1 I. Caba-Maria, Flavius II. Georgescu, Alexandru (coord.) III. Mureșan, Liviu (coord.) IV. Mușetescu, Radu-Cristian (coord.) 656 32 Editor: Valentin Ajder Promoting THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE and 17 + 1 Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe, from the Perspective of Central and Eastern European Countries Coordinators: Flavius CABA-MARIA Alexandru GEORGESCU Liviu MUREȘAN Radu-Cristian MUȘETESCU Center for China Studies Bucharest, 2020 5 CONTENTS Executive Summary.................................................................................................................. 11 PART I: THE STATUS OF THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE AND 17+1 COOPERATION Chapter 1. The Current Strategic Initiatives ......................................................17 1.1. The Belt and Road Initiative as a “Project of the Century”? ............17 1.2. An Overview of China’s Strategic Initiatives in Central and Eastern Europe ...............................................................................................................33 1.2.1. China and Public Diplomacy in the Central and Eastern European Region ........................................................................................39 1.2.2. Perceptions of the Belt and Road Initiative and 17+1 Format among the Central Eastern European Countries ............................42 1.3. The 17+1 Format and Energy Cooperation – a Case Study ...........51 1.4. The Main Achievements of the Initiatives ...........................................66 1.5. A Critical Assessment of the Initiatives and their Implementation ..................................................................................71 PART II: THE CUrrENT CONTEXT’S INFLUENCE ON THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE AND 17+1 COOPERATION Chapter 2. Evolution of the Wider Security and Economic Environment ....................................................................87 2.1. The Current Systemic View ........................................................................87 2.2. Strategic Trends .............................................................................................93 2.2.1. Technological Trends ..................................................................................93 2.2.2. Economic Trends .........................................................................................96 2.2.3. Political Trends............................................................................................101 2.3. The Impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic on China’s Initiatives .....105 Chapter 3. The Challenges of Going Global – the Belt and Road Initiative Perspective ............................................................116 3.1. China in the World .......................................................................................116 3.2. China and the United States ...................................................................122 6 3.3. China and Europe........................................................................................137 3.3.1. The European Union, China, and Environmentalism ....................149 3.4. China and Russia ..........................................................................................151 3.5. The Perceptions of Central Eastern European Countries on the 17+1 Format, in the New International Context ...............................157 3.5.1. The US-China Rivalry and the US as a Security Provider ............158 3.5.2. The 5G Dilemma ........................................................................................159 3.5.3. SARS-CoV-2 ..................................................................................................160 3.5.4. Twitter Diplomacy .....................................................................................161 3.5.5. Conclusions ..................................................................................................162 3.6. Challenges to Cooperation between China and its Central and Eastern European Partners ....................................... 164 3.7. China and the Black Sea – Eastern Mediterranean Sea Perspective .............................................................170 3.8. The Middle East – a Linchpin between the Belt and Road Initiative and 17+1 Format ........................................................................172 3.8.1. Opportunities .............................................................................................. 174 3.8.2. Challenges ..................................................................................................176 3.8.3. Prospects ......................................................................................................178 3.8.4. Conclusions ..................................................................................................181 PART III: TOWARDS A BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE 2.0 (BRI 2.0) Chapter 4. Potential Projects with Expanding Dimensions.......................193 4.1. The Opportunities for Sub-Regional Cooperation .........................193 4.2. Critical Infrastructure Protection – the Key for Cooperation .......199 4.3. Security Oriented Development .......................................................... 207 4.4. Partnerships for Crisis and Emergency Situations .......................... 209 4.5. Space Cooperation as a New Dimension for Belt and Road Initiative ..........................................................................................................211 Chapter 5. Proposals on Economic Cooperation ...........................................218 5.1. The Synergy between 17+1 Format and the Middle East under the Grand Plan of Belt and Road Initiative ............................218 5.2. Pursuing Synergies with Other Regional Initiatives ....................... 222 5.2.1. Synergies with the Danube Macroregional Strategy ....................224 5.2.2. Synergies with the Three Seas Initiative ...........................................225 7 5.2.3. The South-East European Connector for the Belt and Road Initiative ........................................................................................................226 5.3. Leveraging China’s Internal Economic Reform and the Impact on the Belt and Road Initiative ....................................... 228 5.4. New Models for “Going Global” ............................................................ 229 5.4.1. The Danube-Black Sea Canal as an Industrial and Logistics Hub ..............................................................................................233 5.5. Towards an Organization of Energy Transit Countries .................. 237 5.6. Further Developing the 17+1 Format ................................................... 240 5.7. New Dimensions of Digital Cooperation .......................................... 250 5.7.1. The Belt and Road Initiative and Blockchain ....................................253 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 259 List of Contributors (in alphabetical order) ..................................................................265 8 FIGURES Figure 1: The Belt and Road Initiative and its main branches, in one interpretation .............................18 Figure 2: The Belt and Road Initiative projects by May 2019, arranged and counted by sectors of activity ...........................................................................24 Figure 3: The infrastructure investment needs by region and sector .....................................................25 Figure 4: The infrastructure financing gap ............................................................................................25 Figure 5: Map of the Central Eastern European region with the 17+1 members highlighted ................36 Figure 6: Map of the EU Member States and their views of China ..........................................................43 Figure 7: Map of the EU Member States and their positions on Chinese investment .............................43 Figure 8: Number of masks sent abroad by China as part of “coronavirus diplomacy” ........................106 Figure 9: Number of medical personnel sent abroad by China as part of “coronavirus diplomacy” .......... 106 Figure 10: A map of countries receiving debt relief and emergency financing from the International Monetary Fund .............................................. 112 Figure 11: The results of distressed loan negotiations in the researched sample .................................120 Figure 12: The three Arctic sea routes ....................................................................................................129
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