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Weekly Strategy Monday, June 03, 2019 FBMKLCI: 1, 650.76 THIS REPORT IS STRICTLY FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY* WWeeeekkllyy SSttrraatteeggyy Market View, News in Brief: Corporate, Economy, and Share Buybacks Kaladher Govindan Tel: +603-2167 9609 [email protected] www.taonline.com.my Market View “Trump Factor” Could Lead to Profit Taking Last week, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) bucked the weak external market trend as month-end window-dressing lifted the index up to close at a fresh two-month high. This is despite the inclusion of Malaysia in the US Treasury Department’s expanded monitoring list for currency manipulation, and as global markets and crude oil prices tumbled amid worries over the worsening US-China trade tensions. For the week, the FBM KLCI jumped 52.44 points, or 3.28 percent to 1,650.76, with most of the gains contributed by Tenaga (+RM1.16), Public Bank (+RM1.08), DiGi.com (+41sen), Axiata (+24sen) and Petronas Gas (+RM1.28). Average daily traded volume improved mildly to 2.13 billion shares, compared to the 2.02 billion shares the previous week, while traded value rose to RM2.57 billion, against RM1.71 billion average the previous week, as trading activity focused on the higher priced blue chips space. As external news flows continue to paint a negative picture on the global economic outlook, the FBMKLCI’s ability to sustain last week’s rebound will be tested this week, ahead of the two and half days of Hari Raya festive holidays. With President Trump threatening to impose tariff on Mexican goods last Friday, China vowing to retaliate on the banning of Huawei by pursuing similar action on US companies (China was supposed to release a white paper on its stance on trade war yesterday and provide more clues on its next course of action with regards to trade war) and yield of short-term securities at key economies like the US climbing at the expense of long-term bonds and unnerving investors, profit taking pressure is likely to increase in this holiday-shortened trading week. With the first quarter earnings season coming to a conclusion without any significant positive surprises, the focus on the local front this week could be on the April trade data as it is regarded as an important barometer to gauge the impact of the ongoing US-China trade war. Consensus expectations are for both exports and imports to contract by 1.3% year-on- year (YoY) and 0.3% YoY respectively, which will lead to a lower surplus of RM12.5 billion versus RM14.4 billion in March. However, actual data could outperform expectations if April imports data for Malaysia’s largest trading partner, China, is used as a gauge. Despite weaker exports, China’s imports for the month outperformed expectations with imports rising by 4% from a year ago, compared to a contraction of 7.6% YoY in March, as the government’s stimulus measures to shield the economy from trade war showed some results. However, the effectiveness of these measures could wane off without further boosters after the US more than doubled tariff in May and look set to impose harsher penalties on remaining imports from China, most likely in June. This reality was reflected in its May Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, which dipped lower to 49.4 versus 50.1 in April. Page 1 of 10 3-Jun-19 Any signs that Malaysia is benefitting from the trade war, albeit likely to be short-term in nature, could help to offset some selling pressure ahead of the festive holidays. The Nikkei Malaysia Purchasing Managers’ Index for May that will be released today as well should have the same impact, if it shows an expansion after recording 49.4 in April, slightly below the growth threshold of 50 points. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing data for May will be released today as well. It may remain flat on a month-on-month basis as demand for stocking up activities cushion the impact of trade war on factory activities. With its core Personal Consumption Index for April hovering around 1.6%, investors will be watching the non-farm payroll data this week to gauge the possibility of a rate cut later this year or next. Disclaimer The information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Its accuracy and/ or completeness is not guaranteed and opinions are subject to change without notice. This report is for information only and not to be construed as a solicitation for contracts. We accept no liability for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use of this document. We, our associates, directors, employees may have an interest in the securities and/or companies mentioned herein. Kaladher Govindan – Head of Research TA S ECURITIES HOLDINGS BERHAD (14948-M) A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad Menara TA One 22 Jalan P. Ramlee 50250 Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel: 603 – 2072 1277 Fax: 603 – 203 2 5048 www.ta.com.my Page 2 of 10 3-Jun-19 News In Brief Corporate Petroliam Nasional Bhd 's (Not Listed) 1Q19 revenue and net profit increased 7% YoY and 9% to RM62bn and RM14bn, driven by higher sales volume for petroleum products and LNG, coupled with the effect of the weakening ringgit against the USD. (The Star) Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB)’s Chief Executive Officer Amir Hamzah Azizan said it is too early to tell if the issue of overcharged bills would have any financial impact on the group. TNB could only make a conclusion after finding out the amount of refunds to be made. (Bernama) Sime Darby Plantation Bhd ’s managing director Tan Sri Mohd Bakke Salleh will retire on 30 June 2019 after serving the group for close to 9 years. He would be succeeded by his deputy, Mohamad Helmy Othman Basha. (The Star) Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd (Not Rated) has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with PT Bintan Alumina Indonesia (PT BAI) to negotiate a proposed acquisition of a 25% stake in PT BAI. This would allow the group a secure long-term alumina supply, as PT BAI is currently building a million-ton alumina refinery plant and accompanying facilities in Galang Batang in the Riau Islands, Indonesia, with plans for a second phase. (The Edge) Telekom Malaysia Bhd said its chairman Rosli Man deferred the appointment of a new Chief Executive Officer (CEO) at the behest of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). The group said he had informed its Board of Directors in early March 2019 about the PMO’s request. It was confirmed that the Board of Directors had recommended current acting CEO Imri Mokhtar as its Managing Director and CEO to the Ministry of Finance. (The Edge) CB Industrial Product Holding Bhd (Not Rated) expects its plantation business to break even next year. Managing Director Datuk Lim Chai Beng said that yields from the oil palm trees are increasing steadily. (The Star) Star Media Group Bhd (Star) has been served with a writ of summons and statement of claim by JAKS Resources Bhd (JAKS) (Not Rated). This is in relation to Tower A, a 15- storey office block in Pacific Star Business Hub in Section 13, which JAKS is to deliver to Star. Among others, claims include a declaration that the completion period for JAKS to deliver Star’s entitlement under the sale and purchase agreement is on 20 June 2020, a declaration that Star has breached the SPA, as well as sum of RM545mn to be paid as liquidated and ascertained damages and loss of proceeds from corporate fund raising exercises. Star would be taking the necessary actions to respond to the claims. (Bursa Malaysia) Comment: We are keeping our estimates for Star unchanged until further developments as the group would be responding to the claim. Note that the ordeal has been on-going since early 2018. Maintain Sell on Star with a TP of RM0.69/share based on 0.6x P/BV. Mitrajaya Holdings Bhd ’s (Not Rated) wholly owned subsidiary Pembinaan Mitrajaya Sdn Bhd has agreed with Medini Development Sdn Bhd to mutually terminate a contract to undertake a superstructure works for an office tower development at Bandar Medini, Iskandar Malaysia, Johor, with a contract value of RM159.4mn. (The Edge) New Hoong Fatt Holdings Bhd (Not Rated) has allocated RM30mn as capital expenditure for FY19 to raise production. Managing Director Chin Jit Sin said in FY18, the capex amounted to RM39.4mn, 30.4% lower compared to RM56.6mn in FY17. (Bernama) Page 3 of 10 3-Jun-19 Opcom Holdings Bhd ’s (Not Rated) executive chairman Tan Sri Mokhzani Mahathir resigned due to personal reasons. He was appointed to the group’s board 10 years ago. Separately, Kedah Menteri Besar and brother to Mokhzani, Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir, disposed of 2.6mn shares, trimming his stake to 21.68%. (The Edge) DBE Gurney Resources Bhd (Not Rated) will jointly develop an affordable housing project in Perak with a gross development value of RM100mn with Silver Homes Development Sdn Bhd, a company controlled by the group's major shareholders. (Bernama) Tanco Holdings Bhd (Not Rated) and Eduspec Holdings Bhd (Not Rated) have entered into a 20-year land lease agreement to lease a freehold commercial land in Negeri Sembilan for Eduspec to construct and operate the edutainment theme park. Dubbed STEM EduPark, the theme park aims to introduce science, technology, engineering and mathematics-based education to the public. (The Edge) HPMT Holdings Bhd (Not Rated), which is en route for a Main Market listing on 12 June 2019 said the shares it made available for public subscription under the initial public offering has been oversubscribed by 7 times.
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