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The Weekly Shot Biotech Issue a Weekly Summary of Healthcare Industry Valuation and Near-Term Catalysts June 17, 2010

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The Weekly Shot Biotech Issue a Weekly Summary of Healthcare Industry Valuation and Near-Term Catalysts June 17, 2010 Small Cap The Weekly Shot Biotech Issue June 17, 2010 A weekly summary of healthcare industry valuation and near-term catalysts The Weekly Shot: Overview and Comment - Small Cap Biotechnology Next week's sector highlights include LGND’s Thursday analyst event at the Eventi - Pharmaceuticals and Large Cap Biotech Hotel in NYC. The company on 6/15 announced updated 2010 revenue guidance of approx $25M, op ex of approx $30M, and expects to finish the year with $30M - Generics and Specialty Pharmaceuticals in cash (vs approx $43M as of 1Q10). Management will likely focus on partner GSK’s progress with add’l trials of Promacta (for ITP), which could potentially expand the drug’s label to Hep C, AML, and MDS (LGND receives <10% royalty from GSK). Investors should focus on pipeline plans following LGND’s opportunistic 2008/09 M&A activity. Key pipeline programs include LGD-4033 (ph.I, SARM candidate from PCOP) and RG7348, partnered with Roche (ph.I, Hep C candidate from MBRX). We do not expect major data announcements at the event. FDA’s Pediatric Drugs Advisory Committee will meet Monday to discuss pediatric safety reviews of multiple approved drugs, including Kogenate, Casodex, Apidra, NovoLog, Arimidex, Desmopressin, Prevacid, Nexium, Aciphex, Priolex, OraVerse, Zemuron, and Suprane . While important from a public safety perspective, we do not anticipate regulatory activity to be announced. Brian Lian, Ph.D. Small caps biotechs rebounded mid-week as elevated volatility continued across 212.500.6646 [email protected] the broader market. Investors are struggling to balance economic data supporting a modest recovery against concerns on EU debt loads, financial reform legislation, and aggressive govt rhetoric on BP’s oil spill. Despite the volatility, the NBI index Meridian Equity Partners closed Weds at 859, up approx 2.4% from Friday’s 839 close. In an encouraging st 5 Hanover Square, 21 Floor sign, financing activity in small cap biotechs was strong this week, suggesting risk New York, NY 10004 appetite remains steady for some investors. Speculative names HRBR, DSCO, 212.500.6650 GTCB, SNGX all announced deals. In the large caps, both GENZ and TEVA offered www.meptraders.com new debt. We view this as a positive undertone to investor attitudes re: risk here. PLEASE REFER TO Two banking conferences next week include Piper Jaffray’s European Healthcare IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Conf, Tues – Thurs in London (agenda NA), and the Wells Fargo Securities ON PAGE 15 OF THIS Healthcare Conf, Weds – Thurs in Boston (agenda: REPORT. https://www.wellsfargoresearch.com/Conferences/Conference%20Invitations/2010HealthcareSchedule.pdf Nasdaq Biotech Index NBI Russell 2000 Small Cap Index RUT Nasdaq Composite Index 1000 2600 750 950 2500 2400 900 700 2300 850 650 2200 800 2100 600 750 2000 550 1900 700 1800 500 650 1700 600 450 1600 Last 859.0 668.8 2305.9 Weekly change 6.8% 8.2% 6.8% YTD 1.8% 6.9% 1.6% 52 week range 644 - 964 413 - 693 1499 - 2432 © 2010 Meridian Equity Partners | [email protected] | Wednesday, June 16, 2010 1 Sector cash multiples have ticked up since late May; NBI index up 1.8% YTD Small cap biotech valuations have increased slightly from late May but remain depressed from April levels. The overall sector currently trades at approx 4.3x cash vs 4.2x at the end of May, and 4.9x in mid-April. Years of cash on hand have decreased to 2.4 from 2.8 in mid-April, likely reflecting updated figures following the 1Q10 reporting period. Average cash per share in the small cap space is approx $1.97 vs $2.11 in April. As a reminder, our data include small cap biotechs from approx $2B down to approx $20M market cap, excluding those trading >35x cash. Similar to what our database suggests, the NBI index, comprised of mainly small to mid-cap names, has contracted approx 10% since mid- April, while the broader Russell 2000 Small Cap Index RUT has fallen by approx 7%. The data suggest that the caution among investors in late May has followed through into June. While not yet a concern, further market turmoil resulting in tighter financing opportunities could lead to reduced cash levels into 2H10. This could potentially discourage certain investors from considering small caps. As discussed on page one, however, the financing window remains robust at this point; a positive sign. We continue to believe that many small caps represent attractive values for investors with longer-term horizons who can ignore the volatility observed in recent trading. Focusing on names with cash runways over 18-months without company-defining binary events could be an attractive means of gaining exposure to the sector and capturing a market turnaround. Lowest 20 Cash Multiples in the Small Cap Biotech Space Per our normal practice for the Small Cap Biotech Issue, we are highlighting those companies in the space trading at valuation extremes as measured by cash multiples. The bottom 20, by cash multiple, are listed below. As in our last Small Cap Biotech issue, of interest in this list is IRWD. The company is approaching a 4Q10 release of key phase III data for linaclotide, for irritable bowel syndrome with constipation. If successful, IRWD and partner FRX would file in mid- 2011. With approx $300M in cash and a runway of nearly 3-years, the approach of data release (and ultimately a positive trial outcome), could result in upside from current levels. The overhang on the stock is due to a large tranche of VC-owned shares that convert to common shares, which could potentially lead to significant dilution. Other interesting entrants in this list include MYRX, which recently announced a corporate restructuring, VNDA, and CAPS. Each has ample cash to avoid financing surprises, and all trade well-below the 4.3x sector average. Market Cash Cash per Cash Yrs of Company Ticker Price cap ($M) ($M) share multiple Burn cash Novogen Ltd ADS NVGN $0.75 $15 $27 $1.32 0.57 $16.6 1.6 Adventrx ANX $1.91 $27 $33 $3.22 0.59 $12.8 2.6 Myriad Pharmaceuticals MYRX $3.84 $96 $159 $6.37 0.60 $44.0 3.6 CombinatoRx, Incorporated CRXX $1.43 $127 $55 $0.62 0.66 $12.4 4.4 Molecular Insight Pharm'ls MIPI $1.82 $46 $64 $2.55 0.71 $47.6 1.4 Ironwood Pharma IRWD $12.18 $233 $307 $16.00 0.76 $105.7 2.9 Insmed Inc INSM $0.75 $98 $125 $0.96 0.78 $0.0 - Capstone Therapeutics CAPS $0.69 $28 $33 $0.81 0.85 $9.1 3.6 Adolor Corp ADLR $1.49 $69 $73 $1.57 0.95 $42.6 1.7 Amicus Therapeutics FOLD $2.81 $78 $81 $2.95 0.95 $53.7 1.5 Vanda Pharmaceuticals, Inc. VNDA $6.96 $194 $203 $7.27 0.96 $19.3 10.5 Marshall Edwards MSHL $1.51 $11 $11 $1.54 0.98 $10.3 1.1 Trimeris Inc TRMS $2.18 $49 $48 $2.13 1.02 $2.0 24.2 GTC Biotherapeutics GTCB $0.42 $13 $12 $0.41 1.03 $23.5 0.5 Poniard Pharmaceuticals PARD $0.86 $40 $39 $0.82 1.05 $33.4 1.2 harbor BioSciences HRBR $0.31 $11 $10 $0.29 1.06 $5.6 1.9 Prana Biotechnology Ltd. PRAN $1.45 $34 $13 $1.34 1.08 $5.9 2.3 MediciNova Inc. MNOV $5.06 $63 $56 $4.52 1.12 $22.4 2.5 Maxygen Inc MAXY $5.81 $180 $159 $5.10 1.14 - - Telik TELK $0.77 $41 $35 $0.65 1.18 $17.8 2.0 Sector averages - - $262 $88 $1.97 4.30 $32.4 2.4 © 2010 Meridian Equity Partners | [email protected] | Wednesday, June 16, 2010 2 Highest 10 Cash Multiples in the Small Cap Space In contrast to the table above, the following table highlights the ten highest cash multiples in the small cap space. Excluded from this list are those companies trading above 20x current cash levels. Such firms, which often do not trade on major exchanges, are included in the tables on the following pages. High cash multiples can indicate a variety of issues, such as extreme distress due to low cash levels (CUR), expectations for future growth (BSTC), and high investor interest in pipeline progress (PCYC). However, some investors may use high multiples to identify potential short plays. Market Cash Cash per Cash Yrs of Company Ticker Price cap ($M) ($M) share multiple Burn cash MDRNA MRNA $1.05 $51 $5 $0.05 20.38 $17.6 0.3 Neuralstem Inc CUR $3.44 $146 $8 $0.18 19.38 $8.5 0.9 GeoVax (1) GOVX $2.90 $45 $3 $0.17 17.44 $3.6 0.7 SIGA Technologies SIGA $6.89 $300 $17 $0.40 17.40 $12.7 1.4 Repros Therapeutics RPRX $0.50 $16 $1 $0.03 16.28 $4.6 0.2 Cleveland BioLabs CBLI $3.18 $85 $5 $0.20 16.28 $0.6 8.1 Advanced Cell Technology (1) ACTC $0.08 $74 $5 $0.01 14.22 $11.7 0.4 BioSpecifics Technologies BSTC $24.40 $153 $11 $1.80 13.57 - - Pharmathene PIP $1.50 $45 $3 $0.11 13.53 $17.5 0.2 Pharmacyclics Inc. PCYC $6.51 $332 $27 $0.55 11.90 $13.8 2.0 Oculus Innovative Sciences OCLS $2.18 $57 $5 $0.21 10.54 $6.8 0.8 Peregrine Pharmaceuticals PPHM $3.09 $159 $17 $0.33 9.44 $13.0 1.3 Oxygen Biotherapeutics (1) OXBT $2.90 $67 $7 $0.32 9.18 $8.4 0.9 Corcept Therapeutics CORT $3.50 $235 $26 $0.38 9.10 $23.5 1.1 Rexahn Pharmaceuticals RNN $1.15 $86 $10 $0.13 8.85 $4.2 2.3 Provectus (1) PVCT $1.20 $94 $11 $0.15 8.18 $10.4 1.1 Cardiome Pharma CRME $8.38 $508 $64 $1.05 8.00 $15.8 4.0 Protalix BioTherapeutics PLX $6.62 $535 $69 $0.86 7.72 $35.8 1.9 Keryx Biopharmaceuticals KERX $4.18 $245 $32 $0.55 7.64 $14.4 2.2 Gentium GENT $4.50 $67 $9 $0.60 7.55 $18.3 0.5 Sector averages - - $262 $88 $1.97 4.30 $32.4 2.4 Banking and investor conferences next week Piper Jaffray European Healthcare Conference; Tues – Thurs, London.
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