Sugar Industry

Baker Library – Harvard Business School

Prepared for Alvaro Baltodano, Integra Capital Group Prepared by B4B Research/Sue Emery

[email protected] www.alumni.hbs.edu/b4b 617-495-6040

© 2017 Baker Library – Harvard Business School

Table of Contents

Table of Contents ...... 1 Executive Summary ...... 2 Findings ...... 2 Resources ...... 18 Project Summary ...... 19 Client Request ...... 19 Search & Discovery Strategy ...... 20 About Baker for Business ...... 22

Sugar Industry Executive Summary

Global sugar production is currently approaching a deficit stage, down from a production peak in marketing year 2012/2013, as global consumer demand increases and overall production has slowed. Global sugar stocks from over-supply in prior years are starting to decline, although global production appears to be rebounding. • Brazil and India are the top sugar producing countries and Brazil is the leading exporter, followed by Thailand. • Central America is growing in importance as a sugar producer, primarily due to Guatemala.

Government policy is an important factor, shaping sugar production and prices in each country. Government subsidies, tariffs, quotas, agricultural support programs, ethanol mandates and other regulations influence national production and exports with a subsequent impact on the global market. • Brazil, as the dominant player, has the most potential to impact the global sugar market, but activities in other regions (like the EU’s decision to abolish sugar quotas) can add significant volatility to the global market.

Note: Most sources define marketing year as the start of the sugar harvest in major supply regions or October 1. Marketing years are usually designated with the beginning and end year dates (example 2014/2015) unless abbreviated, in which case 2014 refers to the marketing year 2014/2015. Findings

Sugar Production

Global Sugar Production

• Over the past 10 years, global sugar production has ranged from about 150 to 180 million metric tons. Global sugar production peaked in the 2012/2013 marketing year, spurred by improved industry efficiency, favorable climate conditions and bio-ethanol policies favoring sugar production over other crops. A production slow-down began in 2013 as a result of cultivation cutbacks in Europe, adverse weather conditions (notably in India and Thailand) among other factors. A concurrent increase in demand, especially in emerging countries in Asia and Africa, led to the first global sugar deficit in six years in 2015/2016. Since then, higher yields and increased cultivation in Europe have driven production slightly higher but still below peak levels earlier in the ten year period.1

1 Richard D. Taylor, “2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026,” Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, March 2017, Südzucker 2017 Annual Report and Sugar Industry of Belize, ASR Report.

Sugar Industry

Sugar Yields and Area Harvested, by Country

• About 120 countries produce sugar worldwide. Area harvested and sugar yields vary considerably by country based on many factors, including level of agricultural technology, government support, capital accessibility, climate conditions, energy costs/reliability and land development opportunities. Most sugar producing countries rely primarily on sugar cane crops; sugar beets typically account for about 20% of total global sugar production.

• Below are charts2 showing Area Harvested and Yield for the following countries: Belize, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cote d’Ivoire, El Salvador, Ghana, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Senegal, US. Note: FAO Dataset’s most recent data for these countries is 2014.

2 FAOSTAT Database, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Sugar Industry

Note: ha=hectare, hg=hectogram (1 ton=10,000 hectograms)

Sugar Industry

To Access Interactive charts and maps for FAO sugar data (see above) use this link: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-map-of-sugar-cane-yields

Sugar Production Forecasts

Global Sugar Production Forecast

• Global sugar production is expected to increase over the next decade, sustained by growth in demand and a reduction in stocks. According to an OECD/FAO report:

o “Over the ten-year period, the growth in production is foreseen to average 2.1% per annum, with production reaching 210 Mt by 2025, an increase of around 39 Mt over the base period (2013-2015). Most of the additional production will originate in countries producing sugarcane rather than sugar beet, and the main drive for output growth is area expansion, notably in Brazil, even though yield improvements are foreseen for sugar crops and sugar processing in some other producing countries (India and Thailand).” 3

3 OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Sugar Industry

Average 2013-15est: Data for 2015 are estimated. tq : tel quel. HFCS: High fructose corn syrup. 1. Raw sugar world price, ICE contract No11 nearby, October/September. 2. Refined sugar price, White Sugar Futures Contract No. 407, Euronext market, Liffe, London, Europe, October/September. 3. United States wholesale list price HFCS-55, October/September. 4. Excludes Iceland but includes all EU28 member countries. Note: Marketing years for sugar are defined as staring with their harvest in major supply regions or October 1. If marketing year is abbreviated as 2014 it refers to marketing year 2014/2015

Source: OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Sugar Industry

Sugar Production Forecasts by Country

• Sugar production forecasts by specific country were available for only some of the target countries. Additional research could discover more sources (i.e., country specific government organizations, consulting/research firms) but there may be translation efforts and/or fees to obtain the data. We may want to prioritize the countries before proceeding with any additional research • Mexico: o The Mexican sugarcane industry is highly unionized; 2 unions represent 95% of all growers. 4 The unions are politically powerful and have a large influence on production and prices. Growers are paid by millers according to a reference price, usually above international prices. In return for technical support and chemicals, all growers enter into contracts with mills. o Mexican sugar cane plantations are small by global standards, thereby compromising overall efficiency. Eighty percent of growers own plantations of less than five hectares. 5 o Mexico’s 2026 production is forecasted to increase by 15.6% compared to the 2014- 2016 average and exports are expected to increase by 73.3% for the same period.6 A trade export conflict with the US could affect US export demand, but Mexico is expected to remain a major global exporter despite any fluctuation in US exports. Production in Mexico is also vulnerable to storms during the hurricane season. 7 o Mexico sugar production is forecasted to reach 6,686,000 tons in 2020. o For more details on Mexico’s sugarcane industry see: The Mexican Sugarcane Industry: Overview, Constraints, Current Status and Long-Term Trends • India: o India’s 2026 sugar production is estimated to increase 21.3% from the 2014-2016 average. Net exports are expected to increase by 149.4 % for same period.8 • Colombia: o Colombia’s 2026 sugar production is forecasted to increase by 0.5% compared to the 2014-2016 average. Net exports are expected to increase by 4.1% for the same period.9 • Central America: The region’s top sugar producer is Guatemala, and the country is expected to remain the largest producer for the near future. The 2013/2014 season was below expectations due to widespread drought throughout the region; climate is a production risk factor as well as relatively inefficient agricultural practices. Overall, Central America’s sugar production is expected to grow at a reasonable pace over the next few years.10 o Guatemala:

4 Mexico Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 5 Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI 6 Richard D. Taylor, “2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026,” Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, March 2017 7 Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI 8 Richard D. Taylor, “2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026,” Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, March 2017 9 ibid 10 Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

Sugar Industry . Guatemala’s 2026 production is estimated to increase 7.0% compared to the 2014-2016 average. Net exports should increase by 2.1% for the same period.11 . Sugar production should increase from 2,975,000 tons in 2015 to 3,000,000 in 2020, driven primarily by increased yields from the adoption of more productive sugarcane varieties.12 o Belize: . Sugar production is forecasted to increase from 120, 000 tons in 2015 to 122,000 tons in 202013 . The cost of energy highly influences agricultural development in Belize and is often volatile due to reliance on foreign imports. For example, in 2012, a heavy reliance on energy imports from Mexico resulted in unusually high energy costs that year. For more details on Belize sugar industry see Sugar Industry in Belize ASR Group Report. 14 o Other Central American countries : . Costa Rica: • Sugar production expected to increase from 465,000 tons in 2015 to 475,000 in 2020 . El Salvador: • Sugar production expected to increase from 777,000 tons in 2015 to 760,000 in 2020 . Honduras • Sugar production expected to increase from 515,000 tons in 2015 to 600,000 . Nicaragua • Sugar production expected to increase from 271,000 tons in 2015 to 310,000 in 2020 . Panama • Sugar production expected to increase from 175,000 tons in 2015 to 190,000 in 2020 • US

o Government policy heavily influences US sugar production and pricing. The domestic market relies on regional trade agreements, quotas, tariffs and other government support to remain profitable for US farmers. USDA’s Commodity Credit Corporation controls production and encourages millers to keep production levels up to 85% of total consumption. 15

o US 2026 sugar production is projected to increase by 8.6% compared to the 2014-2016 average.16

11 Richard D. Taylor, “2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026,” Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, March 2017 12 Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2017 Business Monitor International 13 ibid 14 ibid 15 OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris. 16 Richard D. Taylor, “2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026,” Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, March 2017

Sugar Industry • Nigeria17: o Domestic sugar production is dependent on government agricultural funding. Government regulations have been established to stimulate Nigeria’s sugar industry but industry observers believe that implementation has not been uniformly successfully. Challenges include insufficient public sector support and agriculture infrastructure, electricity costs, inability of farmers to find industrial buyers, which leads to wasted crops and investments. o The average production? growth from 2016-17 to 2020-21 is expected to be 12.8%.

Historical Sugar Producer Prices

Global Prices

• Sugar prices are impacted not only by supply and demand dynamics but also by regional trade agreements, exchange rates and government policies such as export subsidies, import tariffs, tariff rate quotas, domestic price supports to protect local markets and ethanol mandates. Additionally, as the world’s dominant sugar producer and exporter, Brazil’s production costs and other national events influence world prices. All of these factors contribute to the sugar market’s volatility and make sugar one of the most difficult commodities to trade.18 • World sugar prices increased from 27.0 cents/lb in 2010 to 32.0 cents in 2011 before falling to 16.8 cents in 2014, and 13.4 cents /lb in 2015. Prices rebounded to 16.6 cents/lb in 2016.19 • The international raw sugar price (Intercontinental Exchange No. 11 contract) is projected to reach US 15.5 cts/lb) in 2025. World white sugar price is projected to reach USD 19.2 cts/lb in 2025.20 • The European Union’s decision to abolish sugar quotas and price supports in 2017 and India’s deregulation of sugar sales are expected to impact near-term sugar prices (and production) but may have an overall stabilizing effect on world prices.

17 Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q3 2017 Business Monitor International 18 CommodityBasis.com 19 Richard D. Taylor, “2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026,” Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, March 2017 20 OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Sugar Industry

Source: Thomson Reuters EIKON (International Sugar Organization)

Sugar Industry Country Producer Prices (in $US)

• The FAO compiles historical sugar cane producer prices for some of the target countries (see chart below)

Sugar Cane (US $/ton) 1985 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Belize 32.5 21 Colombia 21 14.5 18.5 36.5 26.9 Costa Rica 23.9 24.5 34.1 Cote d'Ivoire 17 19 Honduras 11.6 15.4 14.1 India 23.1 13.2 17.2 Mexico 19.3 27 33.3 49.1 30 Nigeria 169.9 Pakistan 16.3 Senegal 14 11.2 15.2 US 26.7 30 29 31 46

• Other countries: o Cote d’Ivoirie: . Sugar #11: 18.2 cents/lb in 2016 (ave) and 17.6 c/lb forecasted for 201821 o Pakistan: . Sugar #11: 18.2 cents/lb in 2016 (ave) and 19.3 c/lb forecasted for 201822

Top Sugar Producing Countries, Exporters and Importers

• Top Producing Countries: o The top 10 countries typically produce 75-80% of global production. Brazil is the world’s largest sugar producing country, followed by India. In the EU, the third largest global producer, France produces the most sugar, followed by Germany. The rankings shift slightly when looking at sugar cane vs. sugar beet production. • China, the 5 largest producer and one of the largest consumers, is expected to increase sugar production 24% by 2025.23 Despite low productivity and high labor costs, new

21 Cote d’Ivoire Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI 22 Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI 23 OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Sugar Industry government policies should stimulate the country’s ability to meet its growing local sugar consumption. • In Africa, sugar production is projected to increase by 4% per year to 2025 based on expected increases in farm and processing production capacity, increased trade opportunities and stronger domestic demand.24

Source: International Sugar Organization http://www.isosugar.org/sugarsector/sugar

• Top Exporting Countries: o In most years, over 70% of world sugar production is consumed domestically and the remainder is exported. 25 Brazil is the leading exporter and is expected to hold this position over the next decade as global sugar exports continue to remain highly concentrated. Analysts expect Brazil may start losing some market share as the country prioritizes ethanol production over sugar and as sugar exports expand in other countries with modernized sugar industries, such as Australia, EU, and Thailand.26 . As of September 30, 2017, the fixed quota system will be abolished in the EU meaning that companies are not tied to production caps and can export as much as desired o Note about International Sugar Organization’s 2016 Statistical Bulletin – has detailed export/import data for 2012-2014. (give link)

• Top Importing Countries: o Compared to exports, sugar imports are much less concentrated and more dispersed globally as an increasing number of countries begin importing to meet local demand. The largest importers of sugar are China, Indonesia, and the US. While China is one of the leading producers of sugar, it is also a leading importer and consumption demand is

24 OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris. 25 Richard D. Taylor, “2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026,” Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, March 2017 26 OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Sugar Industry expected to increase. Industry experts foresee the strongest growth in sugar demand in Asia and Africa, with a resulting influence on regional imports. By 2025, Indonesia is forecasted to become the world’s leading sugar importer.27 . US imports are predominantly from Mexico, and to a lesser degree Brazil, Guatemala, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador

Source: Sudzucker AG Annual Report 2016/2017

27 OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Sugar Industry For additional detailed information on exports and imports by country see the International Sugar Organization Statistical Bulletin February 2016

Principal Sugar Producers

• Most of the leading sugar companies are industrial conglomerates with sugar farming and processing subsidiaries in multiple locations worldwide. For example, Sudzucker has 100 production locations in 31 countries. • Other leading sugar producers are either wholly or partially state-owned (for example, China) or are joint ventures/partnerships with foreign entities. o Example: Singapore based Wilmar, the largest raw sugar producer in Australia formed a 50:50 joint venture with Raizen, Brazil’s largest producer in 2016

Source: ESN Südzucker Analyst report, Statista

• Information on production growth and areas harvested are not easily available for individual companies. Some anecdotal information can be found in company annual reports, assuming the company is publicly traded and provides segment details. Examples of anecdotal data include: o Sudzucker’s sugar beet cultivation area grew 10% in 2016 compared to the prior year, reaching 385,000 ha. YOY growth in sugar yield was 6.8% reaching 12.8 t/ha in 2016 and total sugar production reached 4.7 million tons in 2016, a yoy increase of 11.2%28 o Raizen, Brazil’s largest producer and the world’s largest exporter, typically produces 4.2 million tons of sugar and 2.1 billion liters of sugar cane ethanol annually29

Use of Sugar in Biofuels

• The United States and Brazil are the largest producers of ethanol, accounting for 73 per cent of global production.30 US ethanol is primarily maize based while Brazil produces ethanol from

28 Südzucker 2017 Annual Report 29 Raizen web site http://www.raizen.com.br/en/about-raizen/raizen-numbers

Sugar Industry sugar cane. Brazil has initiatives in place to increase the country’s share of sugarcane devoted to ethanol production from 20.7% to 22.3% by 2025.31

Source: Second Generation Biofuel Markets: The State of Play, Trade and Developing Country Perspectives, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 2016

• Global ethanol production is projected to increase slightly from 115 Bln L in 2015 to 128.4 Bln L by 2025 with Brazil accounting for half of the growth in production.32 Government policies on

30 Second Generation Biofuel Markets: The State of Play, Trade and Developing Country Perspectives, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 2016 31 CommodityBasis.com

Sugar Industry alternative fuels and country initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions play a large role in shaping the future of the ethanol and biofuel industry.

32 OECD/FAO (2016), “Sugar”, in OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Sugar Industry • While US, Brazil, Canada, EU, Australia, China, India and Thailand have all used biofuel blends for many years, Brazil is considered an innovator in developing a sustainable biofuels economy.33 The country has no light vehicles that are purely run on gasoline. • Brazil exports ethanol primarily to the EU, South Korea, US and Japan.34 • According to the OECD-FAO: o “Ethanol use in developing countries is divided into fuel and other uses, with non-fuel use often taking the largest share. Biofuel consumption is driven by blending targets or mandates. In China, fuel ethanol use is expected to expand by 1 Bln L…A number of emerging economies, using ethanol in low level blend, are planned to remain at those levels or increase them marginally in part because the assumed oil prices. Examples include Columbia, India, the Philippines and Viet Nam. Blending use in Thailand is projected to increase, the government currently promotes the use of E20 and E85 gasohol by means of subsidies, by 2025 it is projected that fuel ethanol use will reach 2.8 Bln L.”35

Source: OECD/FAO, “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook”

33 New Zealand Biofuel Association 34 CommodityBasis.com 35 “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, Special Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa,” OECD-FAO, 2016.

Sugar Industry Resources

Jennifer Nyberg, “Sugar International Market Profile,” Background paper for the Competitive Commercial Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (CCAA) Study, FAO, 2008

Sugar: World Markets and Trade, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, May 2017

Second Generation Biofuel Markets: The State of Play, Trade and Developing Country Perspectives, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 2016

Richard D. Taylor, “2017 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2016-2026,” Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies, North Dakota State University, March 2017

Pakistan Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

India Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

Central America Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

Colombia Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

Ghana Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

Cote d’Ivoire Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

Mexico Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

Nigeria Agribusiness Report Q3 2017, BMI

Mexico Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

El Salvador Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Costa Rica Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Colombia Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Guatemala Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Honduras Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Nicaragua Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

Pakistan Sugar Annual GAIN Report 2017, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

“Sugar Industry of Belize: Transforming Sugar Production in Belize into a Modern, Sustainable, Green Model, Contributing to Jobs, Growth and Energy Security,” ASR Group.

Südzucker 2017 Annual Report

Sugar Industry “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024,” OECD/FAO (2015)

“OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2016-2025, Special Outlook Sub-Saharan Africa,” OECD/FAO (2016)

Wilmar 2017 Annual Report

International Sugar Organization Statistical Bulletin, February 2016

“Projecting World Raw Sugar Prices,” USDA, January 2015

The Mexican Sugarcane Industry: Overview, Constraints, Current Status and Long-Term Trends

USDA, Foreign Agriculture Service Database

OECD/FAO Database

International Sugar Organization

Project Summary Client Request

Global sugar industry

Producer prices of sugar cane, sugar beet and/or refined sugar: . Last 5, 10, 15 and 30 years . Geographies: Global, India, Pakistan, Colombia, Central America, Mexico, US, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana (pending energy research)

Production of sugar cane, sugar beet and/or refined sugar over the last 10 years as measured in: . Area harvested . Yield . Geographies: Global, India, Pakistan, Colombia, Central America, Mexico, US, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana (pending energy research)

Production forecasts for sugar cane, sugar beet and/or refined sugar: . Time horizon: next 5 years . Geographies: Global, India, Pakistan, Colombia, Central America, Mexico, US, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana (pending energy research)

Principal producers of sugar cane, sugar beet and/or refined sugar globally . Growth of producers in terms of land and production . Location of producers

Sugar Industry Top sugar cane, sugar beet and/or refined sugar producing countries and importing countries . Amount of sugar produced and/or imported . Which producers serve these markets

Use of sugar in biofuels . Growth over the past 5 years . In which countries it is most popular

Search & Discovery Strategy

B4B will search for and summarize information on the global sugar industry from sources which include:

• Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) • US Department of Agriculture (USDA) • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) • International Sugar Organization (ISO) • International Trade Centre (ITC) • Financial news sources including the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal • Market research databases like Emerging Markets Information System (EMIS)

Sugar Industry Privacy, Use of Information & Copyright

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Sugar Industry