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Country Report 2Nd Quarter 1996 © the Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 2 Iraq

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Country Report 2Nd Quarter 1996 © the Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 2 Iraq COUNTRY REPORT Iraq 2nd quarter 1996 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 40 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through specific research reports, whether for general release or for particular clients; through electronic publishing; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent Street The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, USA Hong Kong Tel: (44.171) 830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.171) 499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 Electronic delivery EIU Electronic Publishing New York: Lou Celi or Lisa Hennessey Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Fax: (1.212) 586 0248 London: Moya Veitch Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 This publication is available on the following electronic and other media: Online databases CD-ROM Microfilm FT Profile (UK) Knight-Ridder Information World Microfilms Publications (UK) Tel: (44.171) 825 8000 Inc (USA) Tel: (44.171) 266 2202 DIALOG (USA) SilverPlatter (USA) Tel: (1.415) 254 7000 LEXIS-NEXIS (USA) Tel: (1.800) 227 4908 M.A.I.D/Profound (UK) Tel: (44.171) 930 6900 Copyright © 1996 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0269-5502 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK Iraq 1 Summary Iraq 2nd quarter 1996 May 3, 1996 Political and economic structures Pages 2-3 Outlook: Unidentified enemies within Saddam Hussein’s own circle will pose more of a threat to him than the exiled opposition, which, despite additional backing from Jordan, will remain badly split. Oil-for-food arrangements will create dilemmas both for Iraq and the USA. Food shortages could bring an outburst of unrest. UNSCOM’s lack of progress means that sanctions will re- main in place and the EIU expects no economic recovery before 1997. Pages 4-6 The political scene: National Assembly elections in March had a predictable outcome. The killing of the defector, Hussein Kamel, and his relatives after his homecoming from Jordan has been followed by other reports of “score- settling” by Saddam’s son, Udai, and the isolation of key members of the regime has increased. An opposition group has opened an office in Amman and US fighter planes have been stationed in Jordan. Syria has hosted an opposition congress. Russia is keen to re-establish itself in Iraq. Pages 6-10 Iraqi Kurdistan: Turkey has extended the mandate for Operation Provide Comfort to protect the Kurdish enclave but only until June. The PUK has called for dialogue with the KDP, which has met with the PKK, raising further ques- tions about the PUK-KDP ceasefire agreed in Dublin last year. The USA has tried again to bring Kurdish factions together and distance them from Iran. The enclave is to receive some EU aid. Pages 10-12 Iraq-UN relations: Iraq and the UN started talks about an oil-for-food deal under Resolution 986 in February and were still talking three months later. Arrangements for supplying food to the Kurds has proved a serious sticking- point, with the USA and the UK determined to cede no role at all to Baghdad. Plans for using the oil pipeline through Turkey have been agreed between Baghdad and Ankara. The work of UNSCOM inspectors has been obstructed and long-term curbs on dual-use technology have been approved. Iraq is sus- pected of having used biological weapons against Iran. Pages 12-16 Economic policy and the economy: The dollar has staged a sharp recovery and the authorities have managed to accumulate fresh funds. Further revenue- raising measures have been introduced while some food prices have been cut. Food stocks have fallen precariously low and steps have been taken to boost local production. Iraq has shown its displeasure at the reduction of exports from Jordan. France has discussed future trade, and aid has been provided by the EU and China. Pages 16-19 Statistical appendices Pages 20-21 Editor: Naomi Sakr All queries: Tel: (44.171) 830 1007 Fax: (44.171) 830 1023 EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 2 Iraq Political structure Official name: Republic of Iraq Form of state: Arab socialist republic based on provisional constitution of 1968 Legislature: National Assembly of 250 members, elected from 56 constituencies; last elections were held on March 24, 1996 Head of state: president, currently Saddam Hussein, elected by the Revolutionary Command Council (RCC), the highest national authority Executive: cabinet chosen by the president, who regularly replaces individual ministers Main political parties: Arab Baath Socialist Party; Democratic Party of Kurdistan; Kurdistan Revolutionary Party. Opposition parties (illegal): Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), comprising six Shia parties; Iraqi Kurdistan Front (IKF), comprising seven Kurdish parties including the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK); Iraqi Communist Party; Democratic Gathering; Iraqi Socialist Party; Independent Nationals Prime minister & interior minister Saddam Hussein Deputy prime ministers Tariq Aziz Taha Yassin Ramadan Mohammed Hamza al-Zubaidi Ministers & ministers of state agriculture Abdullah Hamid Mohammed Salih awqaf & religious affairs Abdel-Muneim Ahmad Salih culture & information Abdel-Ghani Abdel-Ghafur defence General Sultan Hashim Ahmed education Abdel-Jabbar Tawfiq Mohammed finance Hikmat Mezban Ibrahim foreign affairs Mohammed Said Kazem al-Sahhaf health Umid Midhat Mubarak higher education & scientific research Himam Abdel-Khaliq Abdel-Ghafur housing & reconstruction Maan Abdullah Sarsam industry & minerals Adnan Abdel-Majid Jasim interior Mohammed Zimam Abdel-Razzaq irrigation Mahamoud Diyab al-Ahmed justice Shabib Lazem al-Malki labour & social affairs Latif Nusayyif Jasim military affairs General Abdel-Jabbar Khalil Shanshal oil Amr Rashid trade Mohammed Mahdi Saleh transport & communications Ahmed Murtada Ahmed Khalil Central Bank governor Isam Rashid Huwaish Speaker of the National Assembly Saadoun Hammadi EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 Iraq 3 Economic structure Latest available figures Economic indicators 1986 1987 1988 1989a 1990ab GDP at current market prices $ bn 49.42 59.86 57.36 66.19 35.00 Nominal GDP growth % –1.1 20.5 –3.7 15.4 5.0 Consumer price inflationa % 35.0 45.0 40.0 45.0 45.0 Populationa m 16.1 16.3 17.3 18.3 18.3 Exports fobc $ bn 6.97 11.52 11.05 14.60 9.50 Imports cifc $ bn 6.36 5.06 7.15 7.68 5.10 Current accountc $ bn –3.04 2.30 –0.14 2.85 –0.90 Net position with BIS banks $ bn –5.98 –5.81 –6.42 –4.96d –4.32e Total external debtf $ bn 17.00 20.41 20.11 22.78 22.71 Oil productionc m b/d 1.88 2.36 2.74 2.79 3.00 Exchange rate (av) ID:$ 0.311 0.311 0.311 0.311d 0.311d May 1, 1996 ID720:$1 Origins of gross domestic product 1989 % of total Agriculture 5.1 Oil 61.3 Industry 11.6 Services 22.0 Total 100.0 Principal exports 1989a $ bn Principal imports 1989a $ bn Crude oil 14.5 Civilian 5.0 Total incl others 14.6 Military 2.7 Total 7.7 Main destinations of exports 1990g % of total Main origins of imports 1990g % of total USA 28.5 Germanyh 13.3 Brazil 9.9 USA 10.7 Turkey 9.8 Turkey 9.2 Japan 7.8 France 8.7 Netherlands 7.4 UK 8.4 Spain 4.6 Japan 4.5 France 3.5 Italy 4.5 Italy 3.0 Brazil 3.1 a EIU estimates. b January-June. c OPEC figures. d Actual. e End-1990 actual. f OECD figures. g Period prior to August invasion of Kuwait. h Includes former East Germany from July. EIU Country Report 2nd quarter 1996 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 1996 4 Iraq Outlook Saddam’s position will Despite recent clashes between his sons and other members of his extended become ever more family, the president, Saddam Hussein, remains capable of holding on to precarious— power in the short term. The murder in February of the president’s two sons-in- law, together with their father, children and others, was portrayed in the official Iraqi media as tribal vengeance, driven by the desire to cleanse the family honour from the stain of the defection to Jordan of the two sons-in-law, Hussein Kamel and Saddam Kamel, in August 1995. Saddam did nothing to prevent the killings and immediately afterwards placed most of the rest of his family under tight security.
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