Commercial / Industrial Development Strategy for The R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Commercial / Industrial Development Strategy for The R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Prepared for:
Vicki Blanchard, Economic Development Officer Municipality of Greenstone 1800 Main Street, P.O. Box 70 Geraldton, ON P0T 1M0
Date
April 22, 2013
Submitted by:
LPS Aviation Inc. One Antares Drive, Suite 250 Ottawa, Ontario CANADA K2E 8C4
Tel: (613) 226-6050 Fax: (613) 226-5236 e-mail: [email protected] Web site: www.lpsaviation.ca
Executive Summary The Municipality of Greenstone commissioned LPS AVIA Consulting to prepare a Commercial / Industrial Development Strategy for Nakina Airport in 2012. The Municipality’s two airports, the R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport and Greenstone Regional Airport (Geraldton) provide the closest air access points from the provincial highway system to the Ring of Fire region of Northern Ontario. Based on research, consultations and preliminary findings, the study outcomes were broadened to identify new economic and long-term sustainability opportunities for Greenstone and neighboring First Nations communities. The Commercial / Industrial Development Plan first focused on Nakina Airport. Tasks included: data collection and facilities inventory; aeronautical forecasts and demand / capacity assessments; airfield operational requirements; facility requirements; preparation of an Airport Development Plan; identification of environmental and economic impacts; a community involvement program; and an airport financial analysis. Air services development tasks included: catchment area research; opportunities identification; destinations analyses; assessment of competing airports; a strategic planning workshop and consideration of a marketing strategy. Nakina Airport currently generates 30 full-time equivalent employment positions with revenues of $7.4 million yearly in the community. The airport generates a further 29 full-time equivalent jobs through indirect and induced expenses for a total employment stimulus of 59 full-time equivalent positions. The airport’s financial performance is relatively good; however annual losses have escalated recently. The Municipality currently collects all fees typically charged by other airports albeit on a small scale. Research and consultations revealed the relative attractions of various airports and incumbent air carriers in Northern Ontario. Key findings are that: Most existing mines are located relatively close to roads or airports in northern Ontario; Ring of Fire exploration and development is the dominant economic focus for industry and government for the future; Ring of Fire mining opportunities are located on First Nations’ traditional lands; Few First Nations communities are served by year round or all season roads in the area affected by the Ring of Fire; Most First Nations communities have airports supported by the Government of Ontario, Remote Airport Program; First Nations may construct new aerodromes to support Ring of Fire activities (e.g. Aroland in the south and at other northern locations); New exploration and development projects will be supported by the lowest cost combination of ground and air transportation services; Resource company logistics plans recommend use of Pickle Lake, or Greenstone’s two airports. Nakina Airport cannot be expanded for large aircraft to support mine construction and operations.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy i R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Given the limitations of Nakina Airport and a potentially uncompetitive environment, it is unlikely to attract a major share of new air transportation services. It will attract increased activity if a local mining or processing operation were developed. Construction of a road or railroad to the Ring of Fire will provide increased airport use as regional exploration activities expand. It is well-suited for smaller aircraft types typically filling the exploration role, including helicopters. Based on mining logistics strategies, Geraldton Airport has the necessary runway size and development capability, as well as commercial lands availability to support large-scale industrial activity. At Nakina Airport, it is recommended that small developments be triggered by demand. Phase 1 projects should include development of commercial lots north of Apron I, relocating the fuel storage and staging lots, and providing access and municipal services. Phase 2 projects could include expansion of Apron I, construction of a second taxiway, and development and servicing of additional airside commercial lots. Phase 3 could include construction of a secondary apron to access commercial lands east of Apron I. In the short term it is recommended that an Automated Weather Observation System be installed and that a Non-Precision WAAS approach be developed to improve airport availability and safety. Nakina Airport’s financial performance is relatively good; however, in recent years annual losses have increased. Based on the airport’s operating revenue and expenditures, capital projects associated with airport development will require outside funding.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy ii R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table of Contents 1 Introduction ...... 1-1 1.1 Approach ...... 1-1 1.1.1 Commercial/Industrial Development Plan ...... 1-1 1.1.2 Air Services Development Plan ...... 1-2 1.2 Community Consultations ...... 1-3 1.2.1 Airport Physical Development ...... 1-3 1.2.2 Air Carrier Service ...... 1-3 1.2.3 Airport Operations ...... 1-3 1.2.4 New Aerodrome Development ...... 1-4 1.2.5 Mine Road ...... 1-4 1.2.6 Stakeholders ...... 1-4 2 Air Services Development ...... 2-1 2.1 Catchment Area Research ...... 2-1 2.2 Destinations Analysis ...... 2-3 2.1.1 Nakina – Thunder Bay ...... 2-3 2.1.2 Nakina – Remote Communities ...... 2-3 2.1.3 Nakina – Mine Sites ...... 2-3 2.1 Airport Opportunities ...... 2-3 2.3 Strategic Assessment ...... 2-4 2.3.1 Nakina Airport ...... 2-4 2.3.2 Geraldton Airport...... 2-6 2.3 New First Nations Airport ...... 2-7 2.4 Area Airports Analysis ...... 2-8 2.4 Air Services Development Plan ...... 2-10 3 Aeronautical Activity Forecast ...... 3-1 3.1 Airport Role ...... 3-1 3.2 Forecast Assumptions ...... 3-1 3.2.1 Mineral Development ...... 3-1 3.2.2 Regional Airport Development ...... 3-2 3.2.3 Economic Conditions ...... 3-3 3.3 Forecast Methodology ...... 3-5
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy iii R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
3.3.1 Modeling Approach ...... 3-5 3.3.2 Operations Forecast ...... 3-6 3.3.3 Passenger Forecasts ...... 3-7 3.3.4 Operations Forecasts...... 3-7 4 Airfield Requirements ...... 4-1 4.1 Airfield Infrastructure ...... 4-1 4.1.1 Runway 09-27 ...... 4-1 4.1.2 Aprons ...... 4-2 4.1.3 Taxiways ...... 4-3 4.1.4 Airside Capacity ...... 4-3 4.2 Airfield Electrical ...... 4-6 4.2.1 Visual Approach and Landing Aids ...... 4-6 4.2.2 Electronic Navigation and Approach Aids ...... 4-6 4.2.3 Field Electric Centre...... 4-6 4.2.4 Airfield Lighting ...... 4-6 4.2.5 Meteorological Observations ...... 4-6 5 Facility Requirements ...... 5-1 5.1 Air Terminal Building ...... 5-1 5.1.1 Deficiencies ...... 5-1 5.1.2 ATB Assessment Methodology ...... 5-1 5.1.3 Requirements ...... 5-2 5.2 Commercial Facilities ...... 5-3 5.2.1 Current Inventory ...... 5-3 5.3 Access Roads and Parking...... 5-3 5.3.1 Access and Approach Roads ...... 5-3 5.3.2 Terminal Frontage and Parking ...... 5-3 5.4 Utilities and Services ...... 5-4 5.4.1 Water Supply and Sanitary Sewage ...... 5-4 5.4.2 Electrical and Communications ...... 5-4 5.4.3 Building Heating ...... 5-4 5.5 Aircraft Services ...... 5-4 5.5.1 Fuel Facilities ...... 5-4 5.5.2 Aircraft De-icing ...... 5-5
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5.6 Access Control and Security...... 5-5 5.6.1 Airfield ...... 5-5 5.6.2 Air Terminal Building ...... 5-5 5.7 Emergency Response ...... 5-5 5.8 Airport Maintenance ...... 5-5 5.8.1 Services ...... 5-5 5.8.2 Facilities ...... 5-5 5.8.3 Equipment ...... 5-6 6 Airport Development Plan ...... 6-1 6.1 Development Strategy ...... 6-1 6.2 Development Plan ...... 6-2 7 Environmental and Economic Impact ...... 7-1 7.1 Environmental Impact ...... 7-1 7.1.1 Environment ...... 7-1 7.1.2 Noise ...... 7-1 7.2 Economic Impact ...... 7-1 7.2.1 Methodology ...... 7-1 7.2.2 Nakina Airport Economic Impact ...... 7-3 8 Airport Financial Plan ...... 8-1 8.1 Financial Performance ...... 8-1 8.2 Revenue Streams ...... 8-1 8.2.1 Background ...... 8-1 8.2.2 Airport User Charges ...... 8-2 8.3 Aeronautical Revenue ...... 8-2 8.3.1 Aircraft Landing Fees ...... 8-2 8.3.2 Aircraft Parking Fees ...... 8-3 8.3.3 Airport Improvement Fees ...... 8-3 8.3.4 Fuel Concessions ...... 8-3 8.4 Non-Aeronautical Revenue...... 8-4 8.4.1 Airport Land Leases ...... 8-4 8.5 Revenue and Expenditures Forecast ...... 8-4 8.5.1 General ...... 8-4 8.5.2 Model Assumptions...... 8-5
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9 Conclusions and Recommendations ...... 9-1 9.1 Conclusions ...... 9-1 9.2 Recommendations ...... 9-2 Appendix A – Surface Wind Analysis...... A-1 Appendix B – Activity Forecasting ...... B-1 Appendix C – Financial Plan ...... C-1
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List of Figures Figure 2-1 – Nakina Location Map ...... 2-1 Figure 3-1 – Northern Ontario Airport Operations vs. Real Ontario Gross Domestic Product...... 3-6 Figure 3-2 – Movement Forecasts for the Nakina Airport ...... 3-7 Figure 3-3 – Passenger Forecasts for Nakina Airport ...... 3-8 Figure 4-1 – Geraldton Airport Wind Rose ...... 4-2 Figure 4-2 – Airport Site Plan ...... 4-4 Figure 4-3 – Airport Physical Zoning ...... 4-5 Figure 6-1 – Nakina Airport Development Concept ...... 6-3
List of Tables Table 1-1 – Nakina Airport - Stakeholder Consultation List ...... 1-5 Table 2-1 – Ring of Fire – Supporting Airports Comparison ...... 2-9 Table 2-2 – Ring of Fire – Supporting Airports Fees Comparison ...... 2-10 Table 3-1 – Forecasts for Growth of the Real Gross Domestic Product of Canada ...... 3-4 Table 3-2 – Forecasts for Growth of the Real Gross Domestic Product of Ontario ...... 3-4 Table 3-3 – Historical and Projected Growth of Real GDP ...... 3-5 Table 5-1 – Levels of Service - Systemized Terminal Expansion Program ...... 5-2 Table 5-2 – STEP Air Terminal Characteristics ...... 5-2 Table 6-1 – Airport Commercial Land Management Strategy ...... 6-1 Table 6-2 –Airport Development Plan ...... 6-2 Table 7-1 – Operations and Economic Impacts at Community Airports in Canada ...... 7-3 Table 7-2 – Forecasts of Economic Impact of Nakina Airport ...... 7-4 Table 8-1 – Nakina Airport Financial Performance ...... 8-1 Table 8-2 – Nakina Aircraft Landing Fees ...... 8-2 Table 8-3 – Nakina Aircraft Parking Fees ...... 8-3 Table 8-4 – Nakina Fuel Cost ...... 8-3 Table 9-1 – Phased Development Projects ...... 9-3
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy vii R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
1 Introduction
1.1 Approach Part 3: Airfield Requirements - Based on consultations and forecasted aircraft activity, the The Municipality of Greenstone commissioned scope of airport improvements required to meet LPS AVIA Consulting to prepare a Commercial / the medium growth scenario was identified. Industrial Development Strategy for Nakina Airfield elements considered included, but were Airport in 2012. The Municipality’s two airports, not limited to, runways, taxiways, apron, the R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport and navigational aids, meteorological service, Greenstone Regional Airport (Geraldton) provide maintenance, and aircraft refuelling. the closest air access points from the provincial Part 4: Facility Requirements – Airport facilities highway system to the Ring of Fire region of including the Air Terminal Building and Northern Ontario. Maintenance Building were reviewed to It was proposed that the strategy be undertaken determine any future expansion requirement in two phases, a Commercial/Industrial based of the forecasted passenger and aircraft Development Plan and an Air Services activity. Development Plan. Based on research, Part 5: Airport Layout Plan - Alternate airfield, consultations and preliminary findings, the study apron, groundside and commercial developments outcomes were broadened to identify new were considered where appropriate to address economic and long term sustainability facilities deficiencies and growth requirements. opportunities for Greenstone and neighboring One concept was prepared with respect to First Nations communities. overall cost and benefit to the airport. 1.1.1 Commercial/Industrial Development Part 6: Environmental Impact and Economic Plan Impact – A summary level assessment of potential environmental issues, or potential Part 1: Airport Data Collection and Facilities impacts which may impact the airport Inventory – A site investigation was undertaken Development Plan was completed. Also, an to examine the existing facilities at the airport, elementary economic impact analysis for the identify adjacent land uses, and interview local Nakina Airport was performed that isolates direct, personnel familiar with airport operations. indirect and induced impacts of airport Additionally, data including aircraft movement development. records and financial statements were provided by municipal officials. Part 7: Community Involvement Program – Community involvement in the Part 2: Aeronautical Activity Forecast and Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy was Demand Capacity Assessment – Passenger and achieved using two methods. Comprehensive aircraft movement statistics were examined and stakeholder consultations were held in Nakina, were used to forecast aircraft and passenger Geraldton, and Thunder Bay. Also, LPS activity to the planning horizon. High, medium participated in the Grow Greenstone Expo to and low level growth scenarios were produced to present draft findings to municipal official, illustrate the potential impact of events and industry representatives, and the general public. developments related to mineral exploration and mining in the region.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 1-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Part 8: Airport Financial Plan – Order-of- Strategic Planning Workshop – A strategic magnitude capital cost estimates were prepared planning meeting was held via teleconference to for the recommended facilities and infrastructure discuss study findings from the preceding tasks improvements considered in the development presented in an interim project update. At that plan. Operating expenditure and revenue point it was agreed that the work plan was to be estimates for the future were also considered. amended to replace the Marketing Strategy with more valuable components, including 1.1.2 Air Services Development Plan participation in the Grow Greenstone Expo. Task 1: Catchment Area Research – In Tasks 5, 6 and 7: Marketing Strategy – The coordination with Phase 1 of the proposal included tasks focussed on the Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy, development of a marketing strategy, action plan, interviews and consultations were held with key and marketing materials. Consultations revealed personnel and existing data sources, including that many of the potential airport tenants relevant previous studies, were reviewed to gain including charter operators and resource a thorough understanding of Nakina Airport’s air companies are based in the region and are service environment. aware of the advantages and disadvantages of Task 2: Opportunities Identification – Based on operating at Nakina Airport. For this reason, it interviews and consultations with local was agreed that a direct marketing strategy could businesses, resource sector companies, regional be replaced with more valuable components. air carriers and industry leaders, potential Additional Tasks development opportunities were identified for Nakina Airport. Conference Participation – At the request of the Municipality, LPS participated in the Grow Task 3: Destination Analysis – An analysis of Greenstone Expo to support the Municipality in destinations of travelers to and from the presenting the proposed development plan for Greenstone region and points within the the Nakina Airport. Participation also involved catchment and service area was performed. discussions with industry representatives, These were in part determined through municipal officials, and independent consultants interviews with local and regional airlines. supporting a number of ongoing Greenstone Task 4: Competitive Airports Assessment SWOT projects. – Using standard measures for comparing competitive airports, charts were prepared showing competitive operational and technical infrastructure, aviation services, and financial rates and charges. A strategic Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis of Nakina Airport and Greenstone Regional Airport was completed for use in developing the most appropriate development strategy.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 1-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
1.2 Community Consultations 1.2.2 Air Carrier Service Scheduled passenger services to and from To promote community involvement in the study Nakina are currently provided by Nakina Air and to gain an in-depth understanding of the Service using 9 passenger PC-12 aircraft. Nakina issues from the perspective of the community Air Services also serves Fort Hope, Lansdowne, and other groups with interests in the Airport, a Ogoki Post, Thunder Bay, and Webequie. series of consultations were conducted in person Consultations suggest that the majority of A number of issues were identified through the passengers using the scheduled services are consultation process. Issues of general concern residents of remote communities and the majority are identified below. of Greenstone residents elect to travel instead by road for cost-savings and convenience reasons. 1.2.1 Airport Physical Development A requirement for improved passenger services A variety of ideas for future physical development for either Nakina or Geraldton was not identified were brought forward during the stakeholder during the consultation process. consultation process. Although a few airport 1.2.3 Airport Operations users are in favour of significant airfield development in the form of an extended runway, Nakina Airport is currently operated by Nakina Air the majority of those consulted are satisfied with Service on behalf of the Municipality of the current runway length. Additionally, many Greenstone. Their responsibilities include, but believe that an extended runway would benefit are not limited to, snow removal, grass cutting, few users and would be cost prohibitive for the the sale of municipally-owned aviation fuel, and Municipality to undertake. the collection of user fees. Significant development of the Airport is not Concerns were brought forward during needed to serve current traffic according to many consultations with regards to the above stakeholders. It was suggested that when arrangement. The airport is municipally funded development is justified, additional commercial and operated by the sole aviation tenant. This lots should be provided to accommodate new arrangement may provide Nakina Air Services tenants and allow for expanded operations of with a competitive advantage over other existing current tenants. or potential local operators. Several of the users consulted agree that they would be hesitant to Concerns were raised about the prevailing wind seek tenancy at Nakina Airport so long as Nakina direction and the alignment of the runway. Air Service is responsible for airport operations. Several pilots and municipal officials were Several instances of allegedly anti-competitive concerned with the current alignment of the behaviour were identified to the consultants. runway and suggested that realignment of the existing runway or the re-commissioning of one Both existing airport deficiencies, and the of the former runways could mitigate adverse characteristics of current operations, are crosswinds experienced periodically during flight considered to discourage wider use of the airport. operations.
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1.2.4 New Aerodrome Development 1.2.5 Mine Road During stakeholder consultations, the consultant The construction of an all-seasons road to serve was made aware of the potential opportunity for mining operations in the Ring of Fire would have development of a new aerodrome in Aroland; a further implications for the Nakina Airport. First Nations community located approximately Consultations suggest that during the 20 km west of Nakina. If constructed, the new construction of the road, traffic at the airport aerodrome could likely have a 5,000 ft. runway. would likely increase, but upon completion traffic This runway length would allow larger aircraft to levels would likely return to pre-construction carry greater loads than is possible using levels. It is anticipated that the road could reduce Nakina’s 3,500 ft. runway. If constructed, this the strategic importance of Nakina Airport as the new aerodrome could potentially absorb a mines would then be less dependent on local air significant portion of Nakina’s air traffic. transportation.
The construction of aerodromes in the Ring of 1.2.6 Stakeholders Fire area may also have an impact on traffic levels in Nakina and other surrounding airports. A A list of stakeholder consultations conducted 5,000 or 6,000 ft. runway located at a mine site during the assessment process is provided in could allow access by larger jet aircraft and Table 1-1. turboprop aircraft from wide-spread locations in Canada. Mine workers would likely be transported from urban centres directly to mine sites. Similarly, expediters contracted to resupply the mines could use larger aircraft and carry greater payloads than can be accommodated at Nakina Airport.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 1-4 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 1-1 – Nakina Airport - Stakeholder Consultation List
Organization Name Title/Position
Municipality of Greenstone Vicki Blanchard Economic Development Officer
Municipality of Greenstone Brian Aaltonen Director Public Services
Municipality of Greenstone Darlene Leupen Airports Manager
Municipality of Greenstone Chris Walterson Geraldton Ward Councillor
Municipality of Greenstone Jay Daiter Nakina Ward Councillor
Municipality of Greenstone Roy Sinclair Chief Administrative Officer
Municipality of Greenstone Stephen Mykulak Director – Protective and Planning Services Municipality of Greenstone Curtis Forbes Fire Chief
Nakina Air Service Millie Bourdignon Owner
Nakina Air Service Greg Bourdignon Chief Pilot
Skyservices Jason Booth Owner
Ministry of Natural Resources Dale Horan Fire Management Supervisor
Private Alex Ward Pilot / Prospective Tenant
Wisk Air Mark Wiskemann President
Wisk Air Jason Gould Assistant Operations Manager
Wilderness North Alan Cheeseman President
Wilderness North Brian St. Germain Chief Pilot
Cargo North Frank Kelner Partner
Wasaya Airways John Beardy Director of Sales and Customer Service
Aroland First Nation Sonny Gagnon Chief
Matawa First Nations Management Raymond Ferris Ring of Fire Coordinator
GCK Consulting Aaron Dorland Environmental Consultant
Ministry of the Environment Monika Holenstein Senior Environmental Officer
Cliffs Natural Resources Eric McGoey Director of Government and Public Affairs
Noront Resources Scott Jacob Manager – Community Relations
Hilderman Thomas Frank Cram Jeff Frank Principal
NAV CANADA Andrew Campbell Vice President, Customer and Commercial Services
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 1-5 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
2 Air Services Development
An original objective of the Municipality of All of the preceding factors have been observed Greenstone in launching this study was to to be impacting activities at Nakina Airport. develop an Air Service Marketing Strategy, goals, Figure 2-1 illustrates the location of Nakina objectives and an action plan for air service Airport in relation to other airports competing in development, with marketing materials focussed the Northern Ontario general catchment area, the on Nakina Airport. Based on these desired regional road network, seasonal road networks, outcomes, a series of preparatory tasks were regional and local communities, First Nations undertaken as described below. communities, and mining activities.
The consultation program revealed many 2.1 Catchment Area Research important factors with respect to the relative attractions of the various airports and incumbent Catchment areas vary for individual airports air carriers within the Northern Ontario area. Key depending on a series of factors including the observations are noted below (and elsewhere in availability of local air services, ticket cost, flight this report): schedules, frequencies and reliability of air services, regional and local road networks, ease Most current mines are located relatively of access to the airport, airport availability in poor close to existing roads or airports in northern weather and a variety of other factors. Local air Ontario; travellers may drive to a larger airport if local air Ring of Fire mining exploration and fares are too high (known as “leakage”), while development is considered to be the bargain conscious travelers have been known to dominant economic focus for industry and travel up to 6 hours to a distant regional airport government for the future; simply to access a low cost airline network. Ring of Fire mining opportunities are located Remote communities may rely on air on First Nations’ traditional lands; transportation for year-round access however Ring of Fire mining opportunities are located many such communities have seasonal access in the general vicinity of many First Nations by winter road, summer barge or other means. communities; The catchment areas for these communities will vary seasonally as will exploration and Few First Nations communities are served by development activities associated with natural year round or all season roads; resource extraction. Most First Nations communities have airports It is important to note that cargo traffic will or aerodromes supported by the Government typically be routed on the lowest cost itinerary of Ontario; unless it is uniquely time sensitive. Cargo traffic First Nations may construct aerodromes to typically uses water, all-season and winter road support Ring of Fire mines; and means before resorting to air transportation which is significantly more expensive on a cost New exploration and development projects per kilometre basis. will be supported by the lowest cost combination of ground transportation (cargo) and air transportation (passenger) services.
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Figure 2-1 – Nakina Location Map
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 2-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
2.2 Destinations Analysis 2.1.3 Nakina – Mine Sites Consultations with resource companies suggest 2.1.1 Nakina – Thunder Bay that there may be potential use of Greenstone’s Based on consultations with airport users, airports to transport supplementary labour to municipal officials, and First Nations projects including Black Thor and Eagle’s Nest. representatives, the majority of scheduled air Both companies consulted are in the early stages passengers travelling between Nakina and of developing logistics plans and could not Thunder Bay are residents of remote First confirm which, if either, Greenstone Airport would Nations communities. Interviews with community be utilized. It was confirmed that the majority of stakeholders revealed that the cost of flying from the labour force would be consolidated in at an Nakina to Thunder Bay (approximately $320) is urban centre airport (likely Thunder Bay) and too great for many Greenstone residents to flown directly to the mine sites. Labour sourced justify. It is common for passengers to drive to from the Greenstone area would be relatively Thunder Bay and pay for parking at the airport if modest in numbers and could be transported travelling to a further destination. The level of effectively through airport facilities and air traffic leakage to Thunder Bay Airport is high. services. 2.1.2 Nakina – Remote Communities Remote communities including Fort Hope, 2.1 Airport Opportunities Lansdowne House, Ogoki Post, and Webequie are served by Nakina Air Service based at the In the event that Nakina Airport is successful in Nakina Airport. Wasaya Airways, based out of positioning to be a logistics support point for Sioux Lookout, also serves many of these mining developments in the Ring of Fire, a communities, as well as Geraldton. number of opportunities have been identified for Passengers originating in remote communities airport growth and development north of Nakina must stop in either Nakina or Expediter/Resupply (Airside and Groundside Sioux Lookout en route to Thunder Bay. As most Lots) – The probability of growth in mineral remote communities are dependent upon air exploration in the region will present an service for most, if not all of the year the increased demand for expediter services. likelihood of a reduction in this traffic is low. Both airside and groundside lots could be Conversely, the traffic on these routes is made available for lease for the storage of expected to grow in line with the population in bulk items with airside lots reserved for remote communities. Traffic may also grow as aviation-related materiel. Additionally, land the demand for labour in the Ring of Fire leases accommodating non-aviation materiel increases in the coming years. currently held by Noront and Meridian could be transferred to groundside lots.
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Air Carrier Commercial Lots (Fixed and Rotor 2.3.1 Nakina Airport Wing) – Consultations with air carriers, both Strengths fixed and rotor wing, suggest that if the airport operator were to change, there could Nakina Airport is served by an established be interest in leasing lots at Nakina Airport. local air service, operating Pilatus PC-12, Chartered air carrier traffic would increase in Cessna Grand Caravan, Cessna Caravan, line with an increase in exploration activity. and DHC-3T Turbo Otters. Nakina Air However, the introduction of additional Service connects Nakina to Thunder Bay to scheduled passenger services by a new the south as well as remote communities to carrier is unlikely. the north including Fort Hope, Lansdowne House, Ogoki Post, and Webequie. Waste Transfer Facility – Consultations with the Government of Ontario and GCK Nakina Airport serves a diversified clientele Consulting revealed the requirement for a including scheduled and charter aircraft waste transfer facility located on the airport operators, resource industry and resource property for the consolidation of waste exploration support. materials, particularly used oils, lubricants, Due to its geographic location, Nakina Airport and empty fuel drums. The facility could be is well suited to serve the mineral exploration privately operated by a commercial entity. sector. Nakina is located approximately 290 km from McFaulds Lake, near the Recreational Use – Although limited, there geographic center of the Ring of Fire. In has been demand for the development of comparison Nakina Airport’s closest land for recreational flying use. This would competitor, Pickle Lake Airport is likely entail the private construction of a approximately 320 km by air from McFaulds modest hangar building to house a small Lake. The 30 km flight distance (60 km round personal aircraft. trip) is a competitive advantage for Nakina. Industrial Land Adjacent to Airport – In Being located at the head of the all-season addition to fuel storage and material staging, road complements Nakina’s proximity to the the development of industrial land adjacent Ring of Fire. This allows exploration supplies to the airport (potentially west of Cordingley and materials to be trucked to Nakina before Lake Rd.) presents an opportunity for use by being flown to their final destination, reducing exploration and aviation supporting services the flight times and cost of transportation. not requiring airside access. Although there are airports north of Nakina that could potentially service the Ring of Fire, 2.3 Strategic Assessment they are not serviced by all-season roads and are dependent upon air transportation. Consultations have revealed that the mining Nakina Airport is located adjacent to community is currently considering both Cordingley Lake. The lake is home to a water Geraldton and Nakina Airports as logistics aerodrome used by Nakina Air Service, support points. The competitive strengths, Leuenberger Air Service, and other charter weaknesses, opportunities and threats of Nakina operators. These carriers use aircraft Airport and Geraldton Airport are presented equipped with floats in the summer and skis below to determine if a two airport system in the winter to access remote exploration strategy could be advantageous to Greenstone. camps. This asset makes Nakina accessible to a wider range of aircraft.
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A Canadian National (CN) rail line passes By comparison, Greenstone Regional Airport through the community. In addition to having has a 24 hour manned weather observation future importance related to transporting service. Installation of an Automated product from Ring of Fire mines, it also Weather Observation System (AWOS) could provides residents with access to VIA Rail provide Nakina Airport with adequate service. Passenger rail service is an asset in weather observation capabilities to support attracting hunting and fishing tourists who approaches in poor weather. travel to Nakina and transfer onto charter Although the property reserved for airport aircraft to access fly-in camps. use is large, the availability of easily Weaknesses developable land in the vicinity of existing airport infrastructure is limited by terrain and The runway at Nakina Airport is currently water constraints. The recent agreement 3,500 ft. long. This length is suited for current between the Municipality and Nakina Air operations by small to medium sized Service to lease land east of the public apron passenger and cargo aircraft. However, the absorbs a significant portion of land that runway is constrained at one end by Munro could be developed for commercial use more Lake and at the other end by the community easily than land further to the east. of Nakina. A more suitable runway length to support large mining operations is 5,000 ft. A The apron area at Nakina Airport is very preliminary review suggests that lengthening congested during peak use. Safe and the runway would be cost prohibitive. efficient use of the apron can be difficult not only because of the size of the apron, but Nakina Airport is equipped with one also due to the location of the fuel dispensing navigational aid, a Non-Directional Beacon facility. Expansion of the public apron may be (NDB). The current decision height for pilots limited by the leasing of land east of the using the NDB approach is 579’, which is apron to Nakina Air Service for aircraft high compared to other airports with navaids. parking purposes. The probability of Nav Canada installing improved navigational aids is unlikely based The Community of Nakina does not currently on the relatively low traffic volumes. possess many of the services required to However, the decision height might be support large scale operations, such as reduced through development of a GPS worker transportation to and from large mine approach. sites. These services typically include hotels, grocery stores, restaurants, etc. There are currently no systems or procedures in place at Nakina Airport to The operation of the airport has been observe weather for aviation use. Based on transferred from the Municipality to Nakina consultations it is highly unusual for an Air Service. Further investment in the airport airport accepting scheduled passenger by the Municipality may be viewed as an service to have no weather observation and investment in the anchor tenant if they reporting capabilities. continue to operate the airport. Additionally, consultations revealed that prospective tenants are hesitant to relocate or expand to Nakina Airport as long as the anchor tenant continues to operate the airport.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 2-5 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Opportunities 2.3.2 Geraldton Airport The high probability of growth in mineral Strengths exploration in the region will present Greenstone Regional Airport has a long increased demand for expediter services with asphalt runway at 5,000 ft. which allows for related land leases and employment at the larger aircraft to operate with greater loads. airport. Nakina is capable of accommodating many Chartered air carrier traffic would increase in of the aircraft that utilize Greenstone line with an increase in exploration activity. Regional, but at a reduced payload. However, the introduction of additional Greenstone Regional is equipped with a scheduled passenger services by a new VOR/DME navigational aid which allows a carrier is unlikely. lower decision height and improved airport Consultations with air carriers, both fixed and availability in poor weather in comparison to rotor wing, suggest that if the airport operator Pickle Lake and Nakina airports. were to change, they would be interested in There is an abundance of serviced, leasing lots at Nakina Airport. developable land. In cooperation with the There has been limited demand for Northern Ontario Heritage Fund and FedNor, development of land for recreational flying nine (9) 100’ x 200’ airside commercial lots use. were prepared in 2012. Threats The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources recently constructed a major forest fire Pickle Lake Airport, located approximately support base at the airport. The base helps 280 km northwest of Nakina, is a direct justify continued maintenance and operation competitor. Although located 20 km further of the airport. MNR activities contribute to from McFaulds Lake than Nakina, Pickle increased traffic and fuel sales during the Lake possesses a longer runway at 4,900 ft. firefighting season. which is 1,400 ft. longer than Nakina’s runway. This allows larger aircraft to carrier A Maintenance, Repair, Overhaul (MRO) heavier loads to mining sites at lower cost. company specializing in DHC-3T conversions Although well-positioned to support operates at the airport. The business has increased exploration activity, Nakina Airport leased two commercial lots and employs will be in direct competition with Pickle Lake. local labour. The presence of differing aviation tenants diversifies airport revenues. Development of an aerodrome or certified airport at Aroland is under consideration by A contract weather office is operated at the the First Nations. Such a development would airport. This ensures that pilots are provided introduce another aerodrome competitor for with the most current weather information. mining and exploration support activities. The airport is municipally managed and Development of a certified airport with a operated. There are no perceptions of 5,000 ft. runway would have greater preference towards users and the implications. This could theoretically relationship between users and the introduce competing scheduled air services Municipality is amicable. or attract Nakina’s existing scheduled service carrier.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 2-6 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Weaknesses Should a new airport be constructed at Aroland, the 5,000 ft. runway at Greenstone The Greenstone Regional Airport is located Regional may no longer be a competitive further from the Ring of Fire, and First advantage for serving the Ring of Fire. It is Nations communities’ scheduled service unlikely that existing aviation activity based needs when compared to Nakina and Pickle at Greenstone would be affected. Lake. Consultations with Nakina and Greenstone Airport users suggest that Greenstone is a better airport than both 2.3 New First Nations Airport Nakina and Pickle Lake, but its geographic location is its downfall. The Chief of Aroland First Nations has held talks with other First Nations and mining interests in There are currently no air carriers based at relation to development of a new aerodrome or the airport. Wasaya Airways offers scheduled certified airport at Aroland. Although at a very service to Geraldton, but its frequency is preliminary stage, it is anticipated that the sporadic due to low demand. aerodrome would have at least a 5,000 ft. long The relatively short distance between runway to accommodate large aircraft. An Geraldton and Thunder Bay as well as the aerodrome is effectively any area of land or water ease of access by highway reduces the designed or used for the operation of aircraft. A dependence on air travel. Local business certified airport is an aerodrome that has been and pleasure travellers typically drive to certified by the Minister of Transport as meeting Thunder Bay to reduce cost and improve the standards and recommended practices efficiency. stipulated in Transport Canada TP 312. Opportunities To develop a certified airport instead of a The Municipality is considering Greenstone registered aerodrome requires considerably Regional Airport as the location for the greater financial investment. However, a certified Greenstone Regional Skills Centre. The airport is a requirement for operation of centre will house a water treatment scheduled passenger services for the public. laboratory, classrooms, a training shop, and Both Nakina and Greenstone Regional are a mining simulator. Being located at the certified airports. airport could facilitate training synergies with An aerodrome will be less expensive to the aviation industry. construct, but could not accept scheduled Should demand increase, the airport has the passenger services, although charter passenger capacity to accommodate improved air and cargo operations would be permitted. As a services. private facility, the proposed Aroland aerodrome would likely require navigational aids as well as Threats weather services. It is unlikely that traffic levels Nakina and Pickle Lake are closer to mineral would be sufficiently high to establish a positive exploration operations and First Nations business case justifying investment by Nav communities than is Geraldton. Depending Canada. The cost of the required equipment on the type of the resource operation, the would therefore fall on the aerodrome owner. longer runway at Greenstone may not
outweigh the benefit of supporting mineral operations from an airport closer to the mine sites.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 2-7 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Nuna Logistics, a contractor well-versed in Compared to neighboring airports Nakina Airport development of remote aerodromes, is co- has the poorest infrastructure. It has a operating with Aroland First Nations in this significantly shorter runway, the least capable initiative. Aroland is also in discussions with navigation aids, and lacks weather observation Marten Falls regarding transportation needs for systems. It has a taxiway system limiting access all Ring of Fire operations as they relate to to both the runway and to developable land. Impact Benefit Agreements (IBAs). There is little public apron space available for itinerant aircraft, and no commercial land At this point it is unclear if the development of an immediately available for development. aerodrome at Aroland will proceed, however the possibility of a larger and more capable airport or Operation and maintenance of Nakina Airport, as aerodrome nearby constitutes a significant threat well as services to itinerant aircraft, are to the long-term sustainability of Nakina Airport. undertaken by one company, whose business may compete with potential aviation users.
Lacking weather services the airport is less 2.4 Area Airports Analysis accessible than competitor airports and as it has higher ceiling and visibility limits for landing, it is A comparative analysis of the four certified less accessible in bad weather and hence more airports capable of supporting Ring of Fire likely to have less reliable air service. development is informative in understanding the commercial and industrial development potential Scheduled passenger air services are provided for Nakina Airport. Four airports serve the by Nakina Air Services six (6) days a week. overlapping catchment areas: Nakina; There is limited local demand for his service. Greenstone Regional; Pickle Lake; and Thunder Competitive airports serving higher local Bay. Competitive factors include airport populations offer greater scheduled flight infrastructure, available air services, air and road frequencies although they may not maintain travel distances, as well as user fees, and many those frequencies when demand is low. Wasaya other factors. Airways offers service to Geraldton six (6) days a week, but operates reduced services when Tables 2-1 and 2-2 present a series of demand is low. comparative factors. Nakina and Greenstone Regional airports share Nakina benefits from its closest proximity to the the same owner and the same fee structure. Ring of Fire and its easier road access from These fees are on par or less than those charged Thunder Bay. When compared to Pickle Lake, by Thunder Bay Airport with the exception of the Nakina is 30 km closer to the Ring of Fire by air Airport Improvement Fee (AIF). Pickle Lake is a and 200 km closer to Thunder Bay by road. provincially-owned and operated airport and does Depending on the source of materials and not charge aircraft parking or landing fees. supplies this can be a competitive advantage.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 2-8 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 2-1 – Ring of Fire – Supporting Airports Comparison Greenstone Nakina Pickle Lake Thunder Bay Regional Airport Management/Operations Nakina Air Services Municipality Prov. Of Ontario Airport Authority Airfield Data Number of Runways 1 1 1 2 Longest Runway 3,500 5,000 4,900 7,300 Runway Surface Asphalt Asphalt Asphalt Asphalt Multiple small Taxiway System Apron access only Parallel taxiway Parallel taxiways taxiways One (limited) Multiple public and Multiple public and Apron One public public/private private private Airside Commercial No Yes Yes Yes Land Availability Navigation NDB NDB Navigation Aids NDB VOR/DME VOR/DME DME ILS Landing Minima 579’ / 1 ¾ mi. 358’ / 1 ¼ mi. 513’ / 1 ½ mi. 200’ / ½ mi.
Weather Observation None METAR H24 METAR 11-02Z METAR H24 TAF H24 TAF 13-01Z TAF H24 Aircraft Services Sole commercial Commercial Commercial Ground support None provider providers providers Contracted to Fuel services Municipally Commercial Commercial operator supplied providers providers Passenger Air Services Air Canada, WestJet, Wasaya Air Air Carriers Nakina Air Service Wasaya Air Porter, Bearskin, North Star Air Nakina Air Service, Thunder Air Frequency M, T, W, T, F, S S, M, T, W, T, F M, T, W, T, F S, M, T, W, T, F, S
DHC-3T CL-415 DHC-3T Aircraft Types Based Cessna 208 Cessna 337 HS 748 Various Cessna 208B (Summer) Cessna 208B PC-12 PC-12 Air Distance to Ring of Fire (McFaulds Lake) Kilometers 291 339 320 541 Road Distance (km) Toronto 1,194 1,185 1,903 1,387 Winnipeg 1,026 969 710 707 Thunder Bay 343 286 544 -
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 2-9 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 2-2 – Ring of Fire – Supporting Airports Fees Comparison Greenstone Nakina Pickle Lake Thunder Bay Regional Vehicle Parking Fees Daily Rate $2 ($5 with plugin) $2 ($5 with plugin) $0 $10 (Tax Included) Aircraft Landing Fees Min Charge Turboprop $2.25 / 1,000kg $2.25 / 1,000kg $0 $5.72 / 1,000kg Max Charge Turboprop $3.38 / 1,000kg $3.38 / 1,000kg $0 $9.50 / 1,000kg Min Charge Jet $2.25 / 1,000kg $2.25 / 1,000kg $0 $7.08 / 1,000kg Max Charge Jet $3.38 / 1,000kg $3.38 / 1,000kg $0 $10.05 / 1,000kg Aircraft Parking Fees Minimum Daily Charge $7.69 $7.69 $40 (FBO) $16.05 Maximum Daily Charge $39.07 $39.07 $40 (FBO) $38.30 Terminal Fees Minimum Daily Rate $12.15 (Jet Only) $12.15 (Jet Only) $0 $16.13 Maximum Daily Rate $58.37 (Jet Only) $58.37 (Jet Only) $0 $87.25 Airport Improvement Fee Per Passenger $5.40 $5.40 $0 $0
2.5 Air Services Development Plan
The only significant advantage offered by Nakina Air carriers and industrial clients avoid situations is that of being marginally closer to the Ring of in which they perceive there to be a lack of Fire than Pickle Lake Airport. Given the competitive pricing or equitable treatment. shortcomings of Nakina Airport including a Nakina Airport may attract increased activity in potentially uncompetitive environment, it is the event a local mining or processing operation unlikely to attract a major share of new air were to be developed. Construction of a road or transportation services in the long term. railroad to the Ring of Fire would cause short- A small-scale air services development plan term increased airport use. The site is physically could potentially market the services of the constrained from major development. Limited existing air carrier/airport operator and could improvements can be undertaken when justified, promote their aircraft and capabilities of for example for a mill or rail construction project. operating from Nakina Airport. For a large-scale
air services development plan to succeed, with potential for broader benefits to Greenstone, the airport would need a longer runway, improved infrastructure, land for development, and the availability of services from competitive suppliers.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 2-10 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
3 Aeronautical Activity Forecast
3.1 Airport Role The forecasts view the mining activity as consisting of four stages: The airport should serve the needs of industry, Exploration air charter operators, scheduled service carriers as well as General Aviation (GA) users. In order This phase involves highly trained geologists who to maximize the economic capabilities of the visit prospective mineral deposits. They conduct airport while respecting the facility’s limitations, and interpret tests to identify and delineate the the role of Nakina Airport should be to provide: major mineral deposits. These operations use small aircraft and helicopters for remote sensing a base for scheduled and charter aircraft and for conveying small numbers of staff to the operations; centres of exploration. Nakina Airport may play a a base for resource exploration support; role as a support base. a tourism gateway to the region; a base for corporate and private aircraft Development owners and operators; The Development phase calls for heavy a base for general aviation activities and construction of new mines. Large numbers of support; and skilled staff will live and work on the sites support to industrial airport use with off- preparing them for operations. Most of these airport industrial land. employees will work on the sites only until they begin productive operations. They will likely fly by 3.2 Forecast Assumptions scheduled aircraft from their homes throughout Canada to an airport in northern Ontario having The future of Nakina Airport depends on many mainline scheduled services. This could be factors that are complex and which can be Thunder Bay, Sault Ste. Marie or Sudbury. The difficult to predict. The scale and pace of the resource companies will then use scheduled Ring of Fire mineral developments will depend on charter flights to convey their staff from this airport both very local environmental and social to aerodromes in the Ring of Fire. concerns, and on global demands for raw In the Development phase, the resource materials. companies will incur large costs for the regular 3.2.1 Mineral Development movement of many skilled employees to the Forecasts call for the first mines of the Ring of mines. Using surface modes to transport Fire to enter production over the 2015-2020 personnel from airports such as Pickle Lake, period. Negotiations with nearby communities Geraldton or Nakina to the Ring of Fire would and the problems of providing the access road or result in large wages costs for unproductive time. railroad to the sites will create uncertainties about The most likely logistics pattern would therefore the timing of the extraction activities and could involve chartered flights from large airports influence the schedules for further resource nonstop to the Ring of Fire, by aircraft that are too projects. large for the Nakina Airport.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 3-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Production Each mine will pass through the four stages. Since each project has a unique timetable, The length of the production phase will depend on several such phases will be occurring in the Ring the characteristics of the ore body and other of Fire simultaneously. The forecasts herein factors. Permanent employees will operate the assume that Nakina Airport will primarily support mine. Many workers will live elsewhere in Exploration phase activities. These will use small Canada, and travel to the mines for two-week aircraft to reach remote sites. shifts. The mines will generate a small quantity of other traffic, such as managers from the head Once the mines reach the Development or office, suppliers, or spare parts for machinery. Production stages, they will generate large This traffic will be relatively time-sensitive and will volumes of inbound and outbound operating be routed through an airport with mainline personnel. There will be large demands for food services. Nakina Airport may play a secondary for operating staff, spare parts and other role in supplying the mines. Any new flights would supplies. This traffic will require aircraft that may operate purely on an ad hoc basis. be too large for Nakina Airport. Surface transport will be used for many items whose size or value Closure and Remediation cannot justify the air mode. Mining companies Most spent mines, including those that produce will likely want to operate all flights from airports chromite, pose many environmental problems. with mainline services. Nakina Airport may serve Machine oil can leach into the soil and many the Closure and Remediation activities, although chemical reagents are toxic or carcinogenic. these operations will be towards the end of the Tailings may contain corrosive chemicals or heavy 2013-2035 forecasting period. metals. Northern Ontario, with its thin soils, 3.2.2 Regional Airport Development muskeg and short growing season, is particularly susceptible to environmental problems. The 3,500 foot runway of Nakina Airport is limited to smaller aircraft up to light turbo-prop in size. The closure/remediation stage involves The location of the runway effectively rules out dismantling the mine and removing any useful any major extension. Greenstone Regional equipment. The mine owner then monitors any Airport 48 kilometres away, has a more capable environmental hazards and regularly tests ground 5,000 foot runway. A proposed Aroland Airport, water and surface runoff. The activities depend on potentially with a 5,000 ft. runway could divert the type of mine, the composition of the tailings, traffic from nearby Nakina Airport. the local geology and soil conditions and other factors. The forecasts assume that Nakina Airport will continue to serve its existing traffic base and The remediation activities can be very large. there will be no significant diversion of traffic to However, they usually do not involve extensive the Greenstone Regional or Aroland airports. effort. They would require occasional charter Exploration activities have the potential to flights, but would not be the source of any large- increase. Large-scale movements for the scale flight activities. development and the production phases of the mines will use other airports.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 3-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
3.2.3 Economic Conditions The Canadian or Ontario gross domestic product will capture many of the international influences. General aviation activities, such as those at Nakina Airport, can be challenging to forecast. The first few months of 2013 have shown They often depend on conditions specific to one prospects for only sluggish growth. The operator, one specific application or one locality, Canadian economy continues to suffer from such as a plant closing, the gain or loss of a weak commodity prices, an appreciating contract, or purchase of an aircraft. These currency, high levels of household indebtedness events are difficult to forecast, and even the and large provincial deficits. businesses that are primarily affected may be In the long term, the world will likely see a return unable to predict such events. to economic growth. However, an economic There are few strong indicators for general slowdown can reduce government revenues aviation activity, even on a Canada-wide basis. while increasing the need for pro-stimulation expenditures. These processes can lead to The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is arguably government deficits, which must ultimately be the best predictor available. While an excellent resolved through fiscal cutbacks. These in turn predictor of high volume commercial activity, it is may constrain growth, and create future less satisfactory for low volumes. Because of the budgetary problems. These feedback processes complexity and diversity of general aviation, there therefore suggest that economic growth could be are no known variables that can be applied to weaker during the forecast period than in recent community-specific data on a widespread basis. history. The GDP is usually selected in default. A major advantage of the GDP is that it is widely Tables 3-1 and 3-2 show current forecasts for documented, and many institutions produce real economic growth in Canada and Ontario. forecasts. Table 3-3 shows historical rates of economic growth. The “Projected” rows show the rates The global economy will affect the timing and used herein to forecast the growth of traffic at scale of development of the Ring of Fire. Nakina Airport. International economics will have a strong bearing on the prosperity of the Municipality of Greenstone and on aviation activity at its regional airports, including Nakina.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 3-3 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 3-1 – Forecasts for Growth of the Real Gross Domestic Product of Canada
2001- Institution Date 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011
Scotia Bank Dec. 2012 2.2 3.2 2.6 2.0 1.7 2.3
Toronto Dominion Bank Dec. 2012 1.9 1.7 2.5
Royal Bank Jan. 2013 2.0 2.4 2.8
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce 2.0 1.7 2.4
Government of Ontario 2.0 1.9 2.3
International Monetary Fund Jan 2013 1.8 2.3
Bank of Canada Jan 2013 2.0 2.7
Conference Board
Bank of Montreal Jan 2013 2.0 1.7 2.3
Table 3-2 – Forecasts for Growth of the Real Gross Domestic Product of Ontario
2001- Institution Date 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011
Scotia Bank 1.9 3.2 1.8 2.0 1.6 2.0
Toronto Dominion Bank Dec. 2012 1.9 1.6 2.4
Royal Bank Jan. 2013 2.1 2.3 2.6
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Oct. 2012 - - - Government of Ontario Ministry of Oct. 2012 2.0 1.9 2.3 Finance Conference Board Sep. 2012 2.1 2.3 -
Bank of Montreal Jan. 2013 2.0 1.7 2.3
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 3-4 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 3-3 – Historical and Projected Growth of Real GDP
Period Canada Ontario United States
Historical
1980-1990 2.83% 3.32% 3.24%
1990-2000 2.92% 3.08% 3.40%
2000-2010 1.89% 1.44% 1.56%
1980-2010 2.54% 2.61% 2.73%
Projected
2013 1.9 1.9
2014 2.3 2.3
2015-2020 2.6 2.2
2020-2035 2.5 2.4 Source: Statistics Canada, United States Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic research
3.3 Forecast Methodology The sum of operations at these airports served as a proxy value for historical activity at Nakina. 3.3.1 Modeling Approach It is assumed that these aggregate variables react to changes in GDP in a manner similar to Nakina Airport annual traffic data for 1992-2011 that of the Nakina Airport. inclusive was provided by the Municipality which also provided monthly statistics for 2011 and a The Ontario GDP provided the best statistical fit portion of 2012. Such a data set spans a to the airport traffic series. Figure 3-1 displays sufficient number of years to permit development the relationship between the two series. The of a rigorous econometric forecasting model. statistical model, provides a mediocre “fit,” and However, the estimation process failed to yield a fails to predict the surge in activity in the early credible model for forecasting. Traffic levels, years of the last decade. This period was particularly at airports the size of Nakina, can be affected by post 9/11 events, very low interest very volatile. Small influences, acting at the level rates, a low value for the Canadian Dollar, and of one airport tenant or one customer, can cause weak fuel prices. However, these conditions are large changes in volumes. unlikely to create distortions during the forecasting period. The forecast herein therefore uses a model that eliminates the large and random variances at individual airports. The analysis considered total aircraft movements at Kenora, North Bay, Sioux Lookout, Timmins, and Thunder Bay.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 3-5 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Figure 3-1 – Northern Ontario Airport Operations vs. Real Ontario Gross Domestic Product
250 600
500 200
400
) 150
300
100 GDP ($Billions) ($Billions) GDP Operations (000 200
50 100
0 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Runway Operations Ontario GDP
Appendix B provides a summary of the Most of the activity related to the Ring of Fire regression analysis. The “F” statistic shows that mineral deposits would use Thunder Bay Airport, the two models (using Canadian or Ontario GDP) Pickle Lake Airport, or the proposed Aroland are statistically significant therefore the GDP is a aerodrome. meaningful predictor of traffic growth at Nakina The Medium Scenario assumes that Nakina Airport. Airport will grow at the same rate as the five airports in the sample. This results in steady 3.3.2 Operations Forecast growth that is not dependent upon speculative The GDP projections and a statistical model that activity. links real GDP to Northern Ontario airport activity The High Scenario calls for accelerated growth together define a growth path for Northern over 2015-2020. It assumes that Nakina Airport, Ontario aviation. despite its limited runway, will play an important The Low Scenario for Nakina Airport assumes role in the planning and supply for the proposed that other airports in the region and/or a new railroad and road to the mines. Its location on airport at Aroland will absorb a portion of current the main transcontinental line of the Canadian movements. Furthermore, they will also capture National will make it an important center for any future growth that Nakina Airport would logistics and for the management of the otherwise have experienced. Traffic will begin to construction. The five Northern Ontario airports shift from Nakina in 2016. By 2018, Nakina in the index have experienced varying growth Airport’s operations will have fallen to rates over the 1998-2011 period. The highest of approximately 3,000 per year. They will remain these rates, 6.93 percent per year, was assumed at this depressed level through the entire to govern the High Case for Nakina for the years forecasting period. of accelerated growth.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 3-6 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
During other years, airport operations at Nakina The High Scenario applies a constant annual were assumed to grow at the rate of the Medium growth rate to the 2011 traffic. A time series Case. Figure 3-2 displays forecasts of flight regression indicated that the passenger volumes operations at Nakina Airport for the 2013-2035 at Nakina have grown at an average of 3.3 period. percent per year from 1992 to 2011. The High Case assumes that Nakina Airport will remain the 3.3.3 Passenger Forecasts primary gateway to the immediate area. The The Low Scenario assumes that Nakina community’s overall demands for transportation Airport’s passenger traffic will remain at 2011 will increase because of positive spinoffs from levels until 2015. It will then decline to 5,000 the mineral developments. passengers per year in 2018. This traffic loss would result from absorption of traffic by other 3.3.4 Operations Forecasts airports in the region and/or the development of Figure 3-2 summarizes the operations forecasts the new Aroland Airport. through to 2035. These are detailed in Appendix The Medium Scenario calls for a nominal 1 B. Figure 3-3 summarizes historical and forecast percent annual growth rate. It implicitly assumes passenger activity. Appendix B also displays that the immediate needs of areas surrounding these forecasts in detail. Nakina will continue to grow. The airport will experience major changes in volumes, either from the positive effects of the Ring of Fire developments or the negative impact of the proposed Aroland Airport.
Figure 3-2 – Movement Forecasts for the Nakina Airport
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000 Runway Operations Runway 4,000
2,000
0 4 8 2 2 6 2 6 0 4 9 0 3 9 0 006 010 020 024 0 1992 199 1996 1 2000 2 2004 2 2008 2 201 2014 201 2018 2 202 2 202 2028 203 2032 2
Low Medium High Historical
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 3-7 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Figure 3-3 – Passenger Forecasts for Nakina Airport
25,000
20,000
15,000
Passengers Passengers 10,000
5,000
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 5 7 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 9 9 1 2 2 3 99 00 00 02 19 1 199 19 2 200 2 200 200 2010 2013 20 201 2019 20 202 20 2 202 20 203 203
Historical Low Medium High
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 3-8 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
4 Airfield Requirements
A review of airport facilities was undertaken to The runway is constrained on the east end by determine the condition, deficiencies and future Munro Lake and beyond the west end by the requirements impacting the commercial and Community of Nakina. Although in theory the industrial development strategy. The process runway could be extended to support larger included visual inspection of above ground aircraft and improve the payloads of aircraft facilities and equipment, review of previous currently serving Nakina, the cost would be reports and consultations with Municipal staff. prohibitive. The current airport layout is presented in Figure Runway 09-27 was last paved in 2011. Runways 4-2 Site Plan. Figure 4-3 Physical Zoning of this type typically need resurfacing every 15 illustrates the runway strip limitations, take- years, but this can vary by traffic and local off/approach surface limitations and transitional conditions. zoning surface limitations at Nakina Airport. Prevailing Winds These zoning limits must be respected if development is contemplated in order for the Consultations with airport users identified that the airport to remain certified. prevailing winds do not favour the current runway alignment and crosswinds are experienced
regularly. LPS AVIA analysed wind patterns to 4.1 Airfield Infrastructure substantiate these concerns and to confirm whether runway realignment was necessary. The airport includes one asphalt paved runway Limited hourly wind data for Nakina was obtained with the designation 09-27 (3,500' x 100'), one from MNR for the hours 0800 and 1300 LST May taxiway (Taxiway ‘A’), and one apron (Apron I). 10 through October 26, 2012. This totaled 343 An Air Terminal Building (ATB) is located on reports. The results are presented in a wind rose Apron I supporting scheduled passenger chart and a table of wind frequencies by direction services. and speed. 4.1.1 Runway 09-27 The size of the Nakina Airport dataset is too Size and Location small to draw firm conclusions about the nature of the wind speed and direction. As a result, 32 The runway is 3,500’ x 100’ and is of asphalt years of data was obtained for the Geraldton concrete construction. Rehabilitation in 2011 was Airport nearby. A comparison was made between funded by the Federal Airport Capital Assistance the winds for the two airports for the same time Program (ACAP). The runway is in good periods. Wind data for Geraldton Airport was condition and is of sufficient length to support extracted to match the hours analyzed for Nakina Code B aircraft (i.e. Pilatus PC-12) and some Airport, and the charts and tables for the two Code C aircraft (i.e. Basler BT-67) according to airports were compared. The wind direction for the current Airport Operations Manual (AOM). the two datasets was very close, although the However, the range and payload of certain wind speed at Nakina was approximately 5 knots aircraft are limited by the runway length lighter than at Geraldton. This could be due to dependent upon meteorological conditions differences in terrain, equipment, and weather specifically air temperature, and on runway equipment siting. surface contamination.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 4-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
For the purpose of calculating runway availability, 4.1.2 Aprons it was found that the winds at Geraldton Airport Apron I are closely aligned to those at Nakina Airport. Apron I serves as the main public apron The 32-year data set for Geraldton Airport was accommodating scheduled air service activities analyzed to produce a wind rose chart and table and general aviation. The apron serves the of frequencies for wind speed and direction. The terminal building and is 105m x 80m in area. It is wind direction is primarily from the western of asphalt construction and was rehabilitated in sector, from the south through the northwest. 2011. Additionally, the 2011 Rehabilitation With the runway bearing of approximately 090- Project included the reconfiguration of the apron. 270, there are a high percentage of winds that The pavement surface is in good condition. have crosswind components to the runway. However, the wind speeds are relatively light, The apron currently experiences periods of with only 4.65% of the winds at 15 knots or more. congestion dependent upon the time of day and Two thirds of the winds greater than 15 knots are the volume of itinerant aircraft. less than 60 degrees across the runway, The apron is constrained on three sides by the resulting in crosswind components considerably runway to the south, the Nakina Air Service less than 15 knots. Therefore, approximately hangar and terminal building to the west, and fuel 1.5% of the total wind data set has a crosswind storage and staging lots to the north. component approximating 15 knots or more. The Wind Rose is presented in Figure 4-1. The development strategy herein recommends the future development of the airport take place Figure 4-1 – Geraldton Airport Wind Rose in phases to accommodate demand on an event- driven basis. The first development phase could be accomplished without expanding Apron I or constructing a secondary apron by reorganizing the lands north of the existing apron. A second development phase would include the expansion of the apron to the east by 300 ft. (91m) increases public apron space, and provides access to new airside commercial lots. It is recommended that Apron I be expanded to the east in a second development phase to provide additional space for aircraft parking and provide access to new airside commercial lots.
The availability of Runway 09-27 at Nakina Airport is estimated to be 98.5% for crosswind components less than 15 knots. Consequently the runway alignment appears adequate for the duration of the planning period.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 4-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
New Apron II The taxiway should be of asphalt construction, 15m wide, meet Code C offset requirements, and Future demand for airside commercial lots will meet or exceed the strength of existing depend on the level of exploration activity in the pavements. According to the Airport Operations region. It is anticipated that exploration activity Manual (AOM) the existing pavement satisfies a will continue to grow and the requirement for Pavement Load Rating (PLR) of 8. commercial lots beyond those proposed on expanded Apron I will be required within the It is recommended that a Code C taxiway planning period. Significant slope changes and be constructed to connect the expanded the distance from the property boundary reduce Apron I to Runway 09-27 to improve aircraft the feasibility for further expansion of Apron I to circulation and airport capacity. the east. New Taxiway ‘C’ A third development phase would include the The planned Phase 3 development of Apron II construction of a Code C apron 120 m x 33.5 m, requires the construction of a supporting taxiway to serve additional commercial lots. To satisfy to provide access to Runway 09-27. The taxiway existing pavement strength, Apron II should meet should be of asphalt construction, 15m wide, or exceed a PLR of 8. meet Code C offset requirements, and meet or It is recommended that a second apron exceed the strength of existing pavement. (Apron II) be expanded to the east of According to the AOM the existing pavement Apron I to access to new airside commercial satisfies a PLR of 8. lots as part of a third development phase. It is recommended that a Code C taxiway 4.1.3 Taxiways be constructed to connect Apron II to Asphalt paved taxiways typically need Runway 09-27. resurfacing every 15 years, but this can vary by traffic and local conditions. 4.1.4 Airside Capacity Taxiway ‘A’ Current air traffic levels are well below the Taxiway ‘A’ is a 15m wide, Code C taxiway of capacity of the airfield infrastructure and asphalt construction that connects Apron I to the specifically, below the capacity of the runway. As button of Runway 09. The taxiway is adequate long as similar aircraft types and activity levels for its current purpose. The taxiway was last prevail significant improvements will not be rehabilitated in 2011. required. However under certain air service growth scenarios, additional airside infrastructure New Taxiway ‘B’ capacity may be required. The proposed Phase 2 expansion of Apron I Should expanded airline schedules and an should be supported by the construction of a increase in itinerant aircraft movements cause secondary taxiway to improve aircraft circulation. apron occupancy challenges and congestion at This taxiway will also increase airport capacity by peak times, expansion of Apron I and/or allowing landing aircraft to exit the runway at an construction of a second apron may be required. earlier point than Taxiway ‘A’.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 4-3 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
One Antares Drive, Suite 250, Ottawa, ON, Canada K2E 8C4
www.lpsaviation.ca
Client
Municipality of Greenstone
Title
NAKINA AIPRORT COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
SITE PLAN
Notes 1. Preliminary
2. All dimensions approximate 3. Base digitized by LPS from drawings provided by Greenstone
Figure No. 4-2
Drawn By AIM
Approved By EGL
Date APRIL 2013
Scale NTS
Filename 361-Nakina One Antares Drive, Suite 250, Ottawa, ON, Canada K2E 8C4
www.lpsaviation.ca
Client
Municipality of Greenstone
Title
NAKINA AIPRORT COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
PHYSICAL ZONING
Notes 1. Preliminary
2. All dimensions approximate 3. Base digitized by LPS from drawings provided by Greenstone
Figure No. 4-3
Drawn By AIM
Approved By EGL
Date APRIL 2013
Scale NTS
Filename 361-Nakina
4.2 Airfield Electrical It is recommended that a Non-Precision WAAS approach be developed for the 4.2.1 Visual Approach and Landing Aids airport to improve aviation safety and increase airport availability. Runway 09-27 is equipped with runway threshold and edge lighting and Abbreviated Precision 4.2.3 Field Electric Centre Approach Path Indicator (APAPI) lighting. A The Field Electric Centre (FEC), which controls rotating Aerodrome Beacon is mounted on the the distribution of electrical power to airfield Air Terminal Building (ATB) and two lighted facilities, is located in the ATB. The FEC is windsocks are located in close proximity to the reported to be in good condition. runway ends. 4.2.4 Airfield Lighting Based on consultations with scheduled passenger and general aviation operators, The airfield is equipped with medium-intensity improvements could be made to some facilities to threshold end lights, runway edge lights, taxiway increase availability. However, consultations edge lights, and apron edge lights. The airfield suggest that the airport’s current inventory of lighting was upgraded to an LED system in 2011, visual approach and landing aids is adequate along with the installation of a back-up generator. and will not require substantial upgrades within This project was funded through the federal the planning period. ACAP program. The current airfield lighting system is expected to be adequate for the 4.2.2 Electronic Navigation and Approach duration of the planning period. Aids 4.2.5 Meteorological Observations The airport is served by a non-directional Beacon (NDB) located 1 km south of the extended There are no formal meteorological observation runway centreline, approximately 4.2km east of facilities at Nakina Airport. This is highly unusual the threshold for Runway 27. Currently, the for an airport served by daily scheduled approach minima for the NDB approach are a passenger flights. Greenstone Regional Airport, 579 ft. ceiling and 1 ¾ miles horizontal visibility. which experiences considerably fewer scheduled flights annually, has a full-time, 24 hour per day Installation of more capable navigation aids (i.e. weather observer. VOR/DME) could potentially reduce minimas and Consultations revealed that pilots regularly improve airport availability and safety. NAV assume similar weather conditions in both CANADA periodically upgrades existing facilities Geraldton and Nakina and reference the weather and infrastructure. An Aeronautical Study is observed at Geraldton. However, consultations usually conducted, with opportunities for public also suggested that the weather at the two consultations, in the event changes are airports can differ greatly, particularly with contemplated with respect to existing service respect to visibility. Installation of an Automated levels. Weather Observation System (AWOS) would Consultations with airport users suggest that the significantly increase safety at Nakina Airport. development of a GPS/ Wide Area Augmentation It is recommended that an Automated System (WAAS) approach would be a cost Weather Observation System (AWOS) be effective strategy for improving approach installed to provide aviation weather minimas. observation and reporting services at the airport.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 4-6 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
5 Facility Requirements
5.1 Air Terminal Building The standards are based on a Peak Design Volume (PDV) of passengers using the building. 5.1.1 Deficiencies The PDV is determined through analysis of schedules, passenger loads and forecasts. It is The Air Terminal Building (ATB) was constructed the peak half-hour period passenger load for in 1992 and houses a passenger/general public which the air carriers supply the most seats waiting area, an airline office, Airport Manager (arrival and departure). office, washrooms, vending, and associated mechanical and electrical functions. Based on Five levels of service (LOS) are considered in the visual inspection and consultations with airport STEP standards as described in Table 5-1. A staff, the building is in good condition. new air terminal is usually designed to deliver a Level of Service B for the first 5 years of Based on current traffic, there appear to be no operation. When service has deteriorated to less overall ATB space deficiencies. The required size than the desired level, action by management is of the terminal in the future should be based on recommended. peak hour passenger volumes and agreed levels of service. These are derived from a combination Following the STEP methodology, 9 basic sizes of aircraft size, airline schedules and peak hour of Air Terminal Buildings are classified in passenger throughput. Increases in aircraft size, progressive order of PDV processing capability. sectors served (i.e. trans-border, domestic) Each size of terminal is capable of processing a and/or frequencies beyond current levels may range of volumes depending on the desired Level require adaptation of existing spaces, followed by of Service. For example, a STEP 5.5 terminal progressive expansion of the floor area of the can process a PDV of 109 - 130 at Level of building. Service B, or a PDV of 201 - 260 at Level of Service E. Each STEP size classification 5.1.2 ATB Assessment Methodology corresponds to a prescribed balance of functional The Systemized Terminal Expansion Program services, amenities, and building areas. These (STEP) was devised by Transport Canada as a may be adjusted as required to meet specific guide for the design and progressive expansion local characteristics of small Air Terminal Buildings. The STEP was established on the basis of long-standing Canadian airport experience and remains valid in most aspects today. The key change has been the recent increase in space requirements to perform passenger security tasks.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 5-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 5-1 – Levels of Service - Systemized Terminal Expansion Program
Level Quality Characteristics A Excellent Condition of free flow, no delays; excellent level of comfort. B High Condition of stable flow; high level of comfort. C Good Condition of stable flow, acceptable throughput; systems in balance. Condition of unstable flow, delays for passengers; conditions acceptable for short D Adequate periods. E Unacceptable Unstable flow; conditions seriously limiting the capacity of the system
Table 5-2 – STEP Air Terminal Characteristics
Peak Design Volume (PDV) (passengers) Total Space Air Terminal Classification Allocation (m²) Lower limit L.O.S. ‘B’ Upper Limit L.O.S. ‘E’
STEP 3 314 26 60 STEP 3.5 424 34 80 STEP 4 628 47 110 STEP 4.5 841 64 150 STEP 5 1,289 84 200 STEP 5.5 1,623 109 260 STEP 6 2,043 139 330 STEP 5.5X 2,516 180 430 STEP 6X 3,007 230 550
5.1.3 Requirements At L.O.S. B, a terminal provides a ‘condition of stable flow; high level of comfort’ and at this level Air terminal building requirements are determined of service a STEP 3 terminal can accommodate through analysis of current and future passenger a PDV of 26-30 passengers. The most common demand and assessment of peak apron and passenger aircraft currently serving Nakina building occupancies. The Nakina Airport Airport is the 9-seat Pilatus PC-12. The terminal terminal building is approximately 200 m2. Based building could theoretically accommodate 3 on the values provided in Table 5-2 above, the simultaneous PC-12 flights or one PC-12 and typical functional area of a STEP 3 terminal is one Beech 1900. 314 m2. However, when unnecessary elements are omitted including: a separate hold room, car The requirement for a terminal building rentals, airport security, and baggage claim expansion project is not anticipated within the devices; the total area of a Step 3 terminal is planning period. 2 approximately 220 m .
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 5-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
5.2 Commercial Facilities It is recommended that municipal land be reserved west of Cordingley Lake Road 5.2.1 Current Inventory for groundside commercial use in the immediate vicinity of the airport. Airside Airside commercial facilities are those that have 5.3 Access Roads and Parking direct access to the taxiways and runways and are generally leased by companies that are 5.3.1 Access and Approach Roads directly involved in the operation of aircraft. The following companies lease airside commercial Access to the airport from the Community is via lots at Nakina Airport: Cordingley Lake Road. The road is two lanes and is of asphalt construction. Based on visual Nakina Air Services; inspection, the road is in good condition and Meridian Fuels Inc.; and should be sufficient for the duration of the Noront Resources planning period. Future airside commercial lots will require groundside access from Cordingley Nakina Air Services offer a mix of scheduled and Lake Road. Extending the existing access road general aviation services and include scheduled that commences north of the parking lot to the passenger operations, aircraft maintenance, and south and then to the east would provide charter operations. sufficient access. This design would require the Meridian Fuels and Noront Resources lease land adjustment of the small pond north of Apron I. for staging purposes. Although Meridian and The environmental impacts of adjusting the pond Noront stage materials to support mineral are discussed in Chapter 7. The estimated cost exploration on airside land, these activities of an environmental assessment as well as should ideally take place on groundside lots, adjusting the pond is presented in Chapter 8. making more land available for direct aviation activities. It is recommended that an access road be constructed to support future airside Groundside commercial development. Groundside commercial facilities are those that are located on airport property, but do not have 5.3.2 Terminal Frontage and Parking direct access to taxiways or runways. Companies The terminal building is accessed directly from that lease groundside lots may not be directly the public parking lot, at the intersection with the involved in aircraft operations, although driveway connecting to Cordingley Lake Road. At companies that provide a service that supports approximately 20 m, the frontage available for the aviation industry or resource industry are picking-up and dropping-off passengers is preferable. sufficient given the current passenger flight Nakina Airport has limited groundside schedule and fleet mix, allowing for 2-3 vehicles commercial property. The limited land that is to park simultaneously. Unfortunately, the lack of available for development should be reserved for a defined frontage road with an independent aviation uses only. entrance and exit from Cordingley Lake Road results in congestion in the parking lot as It is recommended that non-aeronautical vehicles are required to perform three-point turns activities be moved off airport property in order to exit. and the airport lands be reserved for aviation uses.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 5-3 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
The addition of a secondary access point would 5.4.2 Electrical and Communications expedite flow and reduce congestion. Hydro One is the primary electricity provider for It is recommended that a second driveway the Municipality. Telecommunications are be constructed connecting the north end provided to the Airport by Bell Canada. Both of of the parking lot to Cordingley Lake these services are currently adequate. Any Road to facilitate improved traffic circulation. upgrades are assumed to be the responsibility of the providers. Consultations with airport tenants and users identified that the existing public parking lot is 5.4.3 Building Heating undersized. The lot is used for both short-term Propane used for building heating is provided by and long-term parking. Some residents of Nakina Superior Propane. This system is reportedly work in other communities or locations during the adequate and sufficient for the duration of the week and those that elect to use air planning period. Upgrading this system, if transportation to commute park their vehicles at necessary, would require coordination with the the airport for the week, which can be considered service provider. “long-term”. At the time of the site visit, the lot was at capacity and based on the amount of 5.5 Aircraft Services snow accumulation on the vehicles, a significant portion had been parked for an extended period. 5.5.1 Fuel Facilities The construction of a long-term parking lot would Currently, the aviation fuel facility is owned by the increase parking capacity and airport revenue Municipality and operated by Nakina Air Service. while reducing demand on the existing lot. Jet-A and AvGas are available and stored in It is recommended that a new long-term above ground tanks. During periods of apron parking lot be located west of Cordingley congestion, access to the fuel tanks can be Lake Road, adjacent the Sand Storage Shed limited. The introduction of a fuel truck would and Maintenance Garage. reduce congestion, the need for excessive aircraft taxiing, and improve safety. Two fuel trucks are currently located at Geraldton Airport. 5.4 Utilities and Services The option of moving one truck to Nakina should be investigated. 5.4.1 Water Supply and Sanitary Sewage It is recommended that a fuel truck be Potable water is provided to the Airport from the based at Nakina Airport to reduce apron Municipal water system. Sanitary sewage is congestion and improve safety. collected and processed in a septic field north of the apron, near the terminal along the parking lot It is recommended that the existing fuel fence line, in line with the fuel tanks. storage tanks be relocated to a Consultations suggest that both of these systems groundside location. are capable of accommodating the current demand. Prior to the development of additional commercial lots, these systems should be evaluated to determine any surplus capacity.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 5-4 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
In 2012, Nakina Air Service was granted 5.7 Emergency Response permission to install private fuel facilities. Currently, Nakina Air Service is the largest Emergency Response Services (ERS) are customer (by volume) of aviation fuel at Nakina provided by the Municipality of Greenstone Fire Airport. With the installation of their own facilities, and Emergency Services. The requirement for Nakina Air Service will no longer purchase fuel on-site services is dependent upon the number of from the Municipality potentially resulting in enplaned and deplaned passengers annually. surplus fuel storage capacity. The existing fuel facility owned by the Municipality should have As stated in CAR 303.02, an airport does not sufficient capacity during the planning period. require on site ERS if it serves less than 180,000 5.5.2 Aircraft De-icing passengers per year. Nakina Airport experiences approximately 10,000 passengers per year. The Aircraft de-icing is the responsibility of individual airport therefore must rely on municipal air carriers. De-icing operations are performed emergency response services. Traffic volumes irregularly and based on consultations with are not anticipated to grow to the point of airport staff, construction of a dedicated de-icing requiring on-site ERS within the planning period. area or purchase of glycol collection equipment is not warranted due to the minimal glycol volumes 5.8 Airport Maintenance used and the limited number of de-icing events. 5.8.1 Services 5.6 Access Control and Security Airport maintenance services include, but are not 5.6.1 Airfield limited to the following tasks: Control of access to the airfield in the core area Snow Clearing; including the apron, terminal building, and airside Maintenance of Water and Sewer Systems; tenant facilities is maintained utilizing chain link Maintenance of the Field Electrical Centre; fencing along the edge of Cordingley Lake Road. Locking gates are also located at the access Runway, taxiway, and apron repair; road entry point. The fencing is provided to General Building Maintenance; and prevent unauthorized access between commonly used groundside areas and airside. Vehicle and Equipment Maintenance. Consultations did not reveal any concerns with trespassing or wildlife issues. Extension or the 5.8.2 Facilities completion of the fencing should be evaluated at The Sand Storage Shed and Maintenance regular intervals, and as development occurs. Garage is a two-storey steel frame structure with 5.6.2 Air Terminal Building a concrete slab-on-grade. The building was constructed in 2009 and is in excellent condition. Access to the restricted areas of the terminal building and access to the airside through the There are three bays: two for equipment terminal building is controlled utilizing manual maintenance storage and one for sand storage. locking systems. These systems are effective Consultations suggest sanding of runway and will likely be sufficient throughout the pavements rarely occurs. planning period.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 5-5 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Based on current and forecast traffic the building Based on the activity forecast and consultations is sufficient for equipment maintenance and with airport staff, no additional pieces of mobile storage for the duration of the planning period. equipment are expected to be needed within the planning horizon. 5.8.3 Equipment As stated in Section 5.5.1, it is The current fleet of airport mobile equipment is recommended that a fuel truck be reported to be sufficient for maintenance acquired to reduce congestion on the operations. apron and allow for the development of Equipment is maintained in-house and replaced land adjacent to the apron. when it has exceeded its useful life. The current fleet of maintenance equipment is as follows:
1997 Volvo L70C Loader with bucket, one way blade, and 16’ ramp plow 1997 Sweepster Broom – loader attachment 2005 International Snow Plow with Sander 1997 RPM Tech Snowblower
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 5-6 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
6 Airport Development Plan
6.1 Development Strategy Phase 1 will open more land to early commercial development. This will achieve a maximum The strategy for Nakina Airport combines the amount of short term space with minimum capital physical requirements of the airport with timely investment. Tasks associated with Phase 1 needs for additional commercial / industrial include the development of commercial lots north development areas when demand materializes. of Apron I, relocating the fuel storage and staging Key points for consideration in commercial lots, and providing access and municipal development include: services. Establishing lots on the northern edge of the existing Apron delays the need for airfield location (relative to on/off airport activities); infrastructure expansion. ease and cost of access; Phase 2 will feature expansion of Apron I to the availability of services; east in order to provide access to additional airside commercial lots and to increase the space scope for expansion of individual facilities; available for aircraft parking. Tasks associated cost of acquisition, leasing and operation; with this phase include expansion of Apron I, the development restrictions or limitations; establishment of a second taxiway, and the development and servicing of airside commercial proximity to appropriate airport services and lots. facilities; and Phase 3 will involve construction of a second timing and overall availability. apron to provide access to commercial lands east of Apron I To address these points, it is recommended that the commercial development of the airport take The proposed typical lots sizes for the place in phases. The execution of these phases development phases are presented in Table 6-1 should be event driven and not based on a Airport Commercial Land Management Strategy. predetermined schedule.
Table 6-1 – Airport Commercial Land Management Strategy
Phase Typical Lot Dimension Typical Lot Area Number of Lots Total Area 150`x 85 0.30 acres 1.20 acres 1 4 45m x 26m 0.12 Ha 0.48 Ha 150`x 85` 0.30 acres 1.20 acres 2 4 45m x 26m 0.12 Ha 0.48 Ha 150`x 100` 0.34 acres 1.36 acres 3 4 45m x 30.5m 0.14 Ha 0.56 Ha
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 6-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
6.2 Development Plan These developments need to occur as activity levels at the airport increase in order to maintain The Development Concept is expected to meet an efficient system. the current and future requirements for airside, The Airport Development Plan in Table 6-2 and groundside facilities development and identifies airside and groundside developments correct certain operational deficiencies at the within the planning horizons. airport. The Development Strategy protects sufficient land to accommodate growth beyond The recommended configuration of airside, the planning period. groundside and other airport infrastructure is provided in Figure 6-1 based on highest and best Development is recommended in phases to use airport planning principles. support current traffic levels and forecast growth. Airside development is recommended in addition to developments including infrastructure such as access roads, development lots, and parking areas. Table 6-2 –Airport Development Plan
Development Airside Groundside Period
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc. Prepare 2 Groundside Lots Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road Groundside Lots Provide Municipal Water Service to 4 Airside Lots Construct New Access Road Phase 1 Install Automated Weather Observation Station (AWOS) (2 Groundside Lots) Construct Long-Term Parking Lot Construct New Access Road (4 Airside Lots) Relocate Aviation Fuel Storage off Airport Property Acquire an Aviation Fuel Truck
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc. Prepare 2 Groundside Lots Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road Groundside Lots Phase 2 Construct New Access Road (4 Airside Lots) Construct New Access Road Provide Municipal Water Service to 4 Airside Lots (2 Groundside Lots)
Construct New Taxiway 'B' (Code C) Expand Apron I
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc. Prepare 2 Groundside Lots Import Structural Fill Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots Groundside Lots Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road Construct New Access Road Phase 3 Construct New Access Road (4 Airside Lots) (2 Groundside Lots)
Provide Municipal Water Service to 4 Airside Lots Construct New Taxiway 'C' (Code C) Construct New Apron II
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 6-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
One Antares Drive, Suite 250, Ottawa, ON, Canada K2E 8C4
www.lpsaviation.ca
Client
Municipality of Greenstone
Title
NAKINA AIPRORT COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Notes 1. Preliminary
2. All dimensions approximate 3. Base digitized by LPS from drawings provided by Greenstone
Figure No. 6-1
Drawn By EDH
Approved By EGL
Date APRIL 2013
Scale NTS
Filename 361-Nakina
7 Environmental and Economic Impact
7.1 Environmental Impact 7.1.2 Noise One of the most significant environmental 7.1.1 Environment impacts of airport activity is the noise generated The proposed commercial and industrial by aircraft movements. In order to estimate the development of Nakina Airport could have present or potential noise impact on areas in the environmental or ecological impacts. Areas of vicinity of an airport, Noise Exposure Forecasts potential concern include alteration to (NEF) are usually prepared based on the types of watercourses and the risk of soil contamination. aircraft operating and flight frequencies at the airport. An NEF is not available for Nakina Alteration of Watercourses Airport. To allow the most efficient use of space on the Noise was not raised as an issue at Nakina airport property, it will be necessary to alter the Airport during consultations, and no complaints location of some watercourses. In most instances have been recorded by airport management. This this would be limited to small streams or surface is likely due to the type and frequency of aircraft drainage ditches to facilitate the development of operations. If aircraft noise becomes a concern commercial land. In one instance, a small pond for individuals within the community, an NEF located north of Apron I, may need to be adjusted should be developed to ensure that to allow for the construction of an access road. developments surrounding the Airport are not Discussions should be held between the exposed to unacceptable levels of aircraft noise Municipality and provincial agencies to determine in the future. At this time, aircraft noise is not the specific implications of the proposed pond considered a major concern with regard to the adjustment. An Environmental Assessment (EA) future development in the vicinity of the Airport. must be completed prior to commencing development activities. 7.2 Economic Impact Risk of Soil Contamination The proposed siting of a Waste Transfer Facility 7.2.1 Methodology adjoining the airport property to handle waste oil, The economic impact of a facility can be lubricants, and empty fuel drums returning from measured in terms of the jobs it creates, the total exploration camps would require cooperation revenues it brings to local businesses and with provincial environmental agencies to ensure households, its contribution to the gross domestic all requisite standards are met. Without the product (“GDP”) of an area, or its contribution to proper mitigation measures in place, a leaking tax revenues. Other measures may also be tank or drum could lead to significant soil appropriate, depending on the circumstances. contamination. The economic effects, whatever their form, can reach the community through four channels:
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 7-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Direct Nakina Air Service employs approximately 30 persons at the Airport (direct effects). Although Direct impacts involve those activities undertaken its largest stimulus comes from direct on the Airport. They may also include economic employment, Nakina Air Service also purchases activities performed off the Airport, but that serve goods and services from the community (indirect only the aviation community. An off-airport effects). Its employees and suppliers in turn consolidation centre for an air courier is a direct make expenditures that employ additional impact. A bottling plant that serves airlines and persons (induced effects). The company’s flights non-aviation user is not a direct impact. bring visitors to the region who generate further Indirect activity, and some businesses may rely on the Indirect activities take place off-airport. The airport to continue operations (catalytic effects). goods or services may be used in the support of The theory and methods for measuring economic flight operations, but could also see many other impact are well accepted and the processes are uses. The off-airport bottling plant that supplies in theory fairly straightforward. In practice, an drinks to airlines and to local schools and economic impact study can encounter many supermarkets is an indirect impact. unusual or unexpected problems requiring pure Induced judgment. Common practical issues include defining the area of interest (Community of The direct and indirect impacts create jobs and Nakina, Municipality of Greenstone, or Northern personal income. The wage earners spend a Ontario), concerns about the various input-output portion of their income on goods and services, coefficients (most models assume full thereby creating employment for additional employment),and quantifying “leakages” to persons. The process continues indefinitely, with areas outside those of immediate interest. Most each successive transactor spending a portion of economic impact studies involve detailed his or her income. Since a portion of the income questionnaires completed by many business of each step goes to taxes, savings or imports, entities. Firms are often reluctant to disclose the stimulus declines geometrically with each sensitive financial information. The input-output round. The total stimulus can be represented as coefficients and multipliers calculated by a multiple of the original earnings. Statistics Canada are statistical averages, and Catalytic apply to a large population of businesses. A small sample greatly reduces the credibility of the Catalytic benefits result from the structural estimates and magnifies the risk that the changes that a facility such as an airport makes responses do not conform to industry-wide in the business environment of a region. An averages. airport may lower the cost of doing business in a region, or increase the quality of life sufficiently to Every economic impact study involves a attract new firms. It may also change compromise between theoretical rigour and the expectations or attitudes about a community. availability of data. This analysis has minimal The availability of air capacity may cause data about the wages or expenditures at Nakina. businesses to change their behaviour. It therefore involves a cross-section of other general aviation airports. The calculations draw their primary information from economic impact assessments at other general aviation airports Table 7-1 summarizes impacts for the reference airports.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 7-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 7-1 – Operations and Economic Impacts at Community Airports in Canada
Movements Employees Community Year Output Itinerant Local Total Direct
Tillsonburg 2005 2,200 8,508 9.0 5.0 1.53 Yorkton 2004 6,634 6,058 70.8 48 5.70 St. Thomas 2006 6,630 23,100 65.8 40.5 12.00 Haliburton 2005 1,450 1,650 46.0 29.0 4.10 Lac du Bonnet 2008 2,224 - 81.0 20.0 7.00 Nelson 2003 - - 28.1 12.75 5.94 Shaunavon 2001 - - 5.0 1.00 Carlyle 2001 - - 6.0 1.00 1.11 Total 19,137 39,316 311.65 157.25 38.89
7.2.2 Nakina Airport Economic Impact Although several European airports have spent large sums exploring catalytic impacts, the The analysis of current airport employment and general aviation airports of North America have representative community airports yielded the not shown a similar interest. There are no following economic impact for Nakina Airport. appropriate examples to apply to Nakina, and no The Airport generates thirty (30) full-time rigorous evidence of airport-induced catalytic equivalent employment positions. effects to apply as parallels. This analysis It generates gross revenues (output) of $7.42 therefore has not included the estimation of million yearly in the Nakina community. catalytic impacts for the Nakina Airport. Few North American airports, even the very largest, The Airport generates a further 29.46 full full- have developed estimates of catalytic effects. time equivalent jobs through indirect and induced expenses, for a total employment The Airport’s economic impact will grow as its stimulus of 59.46 full-time equivalent level of activity increases. Increases in either positions. runway operations or passenger volumes would raise its impact. The forecasts of future impact The Airport will generate catalytic benefits if it view the airport as serving prospecting, natural encourages firms to locate in Nakina. One likely resources and small aircraft access to remote form of benefit would see Nakina serve as a communities. Its economic impact would then stronger base, or major participant in the depend more closely on runway operations development of regional resources. rather than passenger volumes. The forecasted economic impact of the Nakina Airport is presented in Table 7-2.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 7-3 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 7-2 – Forecasts of Economic Impact of Nakina Airport
Operations Total Employment Output $(Millions) Year Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High 2012 5,648 5,648 5,648 59.46 59.46 59.46 7.42 7.42 7.42 2013 5,648 5,697 5,697 59.46 59.98 59.98 7.42 7.48 7.48 2014 4,977 5,756 5,756 52.40 60.60 60.60 6.54 7.56 7.56 2015 4,385 5,813 6,155 46.16 61.20 64.80 5.76 7.64 8.09 2016 3,864 5,871 6,581 40.68 61.81 69.28 5.08 7.71 8.65 2017 3,405 5,930 7,038 35.85 62.43 74.09 4.47 7.79 9.25 2018 3,000 5,989 7,525 31.58 63.05 79.22 3.94 7.87 9.89 2019 3,000 6,049 8,047 31.58 63.68 84.72 3.94 7.95 10.57 2020 3,000 6,114 8,605 31.58 64.37 90.59 3.94 8.03 11.30 2021 3,000 6,181 8,698 31.58 65.07 91.57 3.94 8.12 11.43 2022 3,000 6,248 8,793 31.58 65.78 92.57 3.94 8.21 11.55 2023 3,000 6,316 8,888 31.58 66.49 93.57 3.94 8.30 11.68 2024 3,000 6,385 8,985 31.58 67.22 94.59 3.94 8.39 11.80 2025 3,000 6,454 9,082 31.58 67.95 95.61 3.94 8.48 11.93 2026 3,000 6,524 9,181 31.58 68.68 96.65 3.94 8.57 12.06 2027 3,000 6,595 9,281 31.58 69.43 97.71 3.94 8.66 12.19 2028 3,000 6,667 9,382 31.58 70.19 98.77 3.94 8.76 12.33 2029 3,000 6,739 9,484 31.58 70.95 99.84 3.94 8.85 12.46 2030 3,000 6,813 9,587 31.58 71.72 100.93 3.94 8.95 12.59 2031 3,000 6,887 9,691 31.58 72.50 102.02 3.94 9.05 12.73 2032 3,000 6,961 9,796 31.58 73.28 103.13 3.94 9.14 12.87 2033 3,000 7,037 9,903 31.58 74.08 104.26 3.94 9.24 13.01 2034 3,000 7,114 10,011 31.58 74.89 105.39 3.94 9.35 13.15 2035 3,000 7,191 10,119 31.58 75.70 106.53 3.94 9.45 13.29
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 7-4 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
8 Airport Financial Plan
8.1 Financial Performance 8.2 Revenue Streams
The financial performance of an airport can be 8.2.1 Background analyzed by comparing its annual operating Developing reliable and sustainable streams of revenues and expenditures. Although ideal, it is revenue at an airport is a fundamental very uncommon for municipal airports in Canada requirement for an airport operator in order to to produce a surplus or to break-even and losses move towards economic self-sufficiency. To do are often recorded. However, analyzing annual this however, revenues and expenses need to be losses reveals if the financial performance of an carefully monitored and controlled by airport airport is improving, declining, or is stable. Table management. 8-1 presents the financial performance of Nakina Airport over a 3 year period. Airports with high volumes of aviation activity are less reliant on non-aeronautical based revenues. Table 8-1 – Nakina Airport Financial Performance Those airports with lesser volumes of aviation activity or limited growth potential in air traffic 2009 2010 2011 need to be more diversified and tend to be more Total $1,122,536 $1,274,277 $1,263,485 reliant on non-aeronautical based revenues. Revenue In general, airports derive revenue from a variety Total $(1,152,070) $(1,342,297) $(1,353,601) Expenditures of user pay services. The practice of imposing these fees on the user differs between airports. Surplus/Loss $(29,534) $(68,021) $(90,116) Some airport operators choose to aggressively charge users in a variety of different ways, while The Airport recorded a loss of approximately others charge very little. Those that charge $29,500 in 2009, or 2.63% or revenue. Over the excessively usually lose customer confidence, 3 year period the annual operating loss has and those airports that do not collect enough grown to be 5.34% in 2010 and 7.13% in 2011. revenues can find themselves seeking additional Relative to many typical municipal airports, these funds to support operational costs and capital losses are not substantial. However, the expenditures. Municipality should consider alternative revenue In order for a user pay system to function streams to potentially reduce or eliminate properly the following guiding principles should operating losses. be considered: The ultimate goal of an airport is not necessarily Full disclosure or transparency of charges; to be financially profitable, but to facilitate greater Acceptable cost recovery; economic benefit in a region. Though an airport may be perceived as a draw on municipal Reasonable fee structure; resources, it is crucial to understand that Efficient use of airport resources; and expenses seen at the airport are offset by Flexibility. economic gains in the community. These economic gains often far outweigh the expenses of the airport.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 8-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
A carefully designed system of charges is 8.3 Aeronautical Revenue considered as a necessity in order to achieve financial independence, or to move towards 8.3.1 Aircraft Landing Fees financial self-sufficiency. Airport charges are addressed below with recommendations on Landing fees are collected by the airport operator specific areas of opportunity for the Airport. and are charged primarily for the use of airside infrastructure (i.e. runways, taxiways, and 8.2.2 Airport User Charges aprons). These fees are usually identified by Airport user charges are classified under two using a formula that relates aircraft weight to the categories: aeronautical and non-aeronautical. charge being incurred by the aircraft operator. Aeronautical charges are levied for services and Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) is generally facilities related directly to the processing of used as the reference weight when this fee is aircraft, their passengers, and cargo. Non- being calculated; however, some airports may aeronautical charges refer to the various ancillary choose to use the Maximum Landing Weight commercial services, facilities and amenities that (MLW) for this purpose. are usually available at an airport such as parking, lease revenues, development fees, etc. Landing fees are generally structured by bracketing, where a fixed charge will be levied up Airport operators are encouraged to maximize to a specified weight threshold. Sometimes a the amounts of revenue collected from surcharge proportional to a given weight above a aeronautical and non-aeronautical sources in particular threshold is added. order to generate funds to support the Airport’s current operations and to contribute to capital Airports can elect to charge a landing fee in investment and improvements. proportion to the weight of the aircraft, but with a variable rate per unit of weight for different Below is a list of aeronautical and non- ranges. The current landing fee structure for aeronautical revenue opportunities that are Nakina Airport is detailed in Table 8-2. collected or should be considered at the Nakina Airport. Table 8-2 – Nakina Aircraft Landing Fees Jet Turboprop and Aeronautical Revenues Aircraft Twin Aircraft Aircraft Landing Fees; Minimum $9.90 $6.46 Aircraft Parking Fees; Airport Improvement Fees Per 1,000 kg Terminal Fees; and < = 21,000 kg $2.25 > 21,000 kg to 45,000 Fuel Concessions $2.88 kg Non-Aeronautical Revenues > 45,000 kg $3.38 Land Leases; Vehicle Parking; and The current aircraft landing fee structure appears to reflect industry standards. It should be noted Development Review Fees. that the Pickle Lake Airport, one of Nakina’s closest competitors, does not charge landing or parking fees.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 8-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
It is recommended that Nakina Airport This fee is usually introduced by an airport maintain the current landing fee structure finance capital investment and is usually related and adjust it periodically to reflect to facility expansions and upgrades. industry standards. AIF’s have become extremely popular with 8.3.2 Aircraft Parking Fees airport administrations in Canada since the Aircraft parking and tie-down fees are collected airports were forced to become financially by an airport for the use of apron stands, remote sustainable after divestiture from the federal parking facilities, aircraft tie-downs and/or plug- government in the mid 1990’s. ins, and occasionally hangar space. These fees Nakina Airport applies a $5.40 AIF to all arriving are normally calculated based on the weight of and departing passengers. the aircraft and/or its dimensions. It is recommended that Nakina Airport Airports can elect to charge parking fees based maintain its’ current AIF. on the amount of time and aircraft is positioned Regardless of the facility used by an air carrier, within the aircraft parking area, and the parking an AIF should still be collected from all area’s location. The current aircraft parking fee commercial passengers purchasing a ticket on a structure employed at the Nakina Airport is unit-toll basis. illustrated in Table 8-3. 8.3.4 Fuel Concessions Table 8-3 – Nakina Aircraft Parking Fees The Municipality currently owns the sole fuel Aircraft Weight (MTOW) Daily Monthly concession operation at Nakina Airport. < = 5,000 kg $7.69 $65.35 Consumers of aviation fuel and oil at an airport typically pay a fee to the airport operator, > 5,000 kg to < = 10,000 kg $13.00 $279.94 normally an agreed percentage of gross revenue related to sales at the airport. The Airport > 10,000 kg to < = 30,000 kg $25.23 $517.00 charges for the cost of the fuel plus a surcharge > 30,000 kg $39.07 $800.71 to offset fuel facility maintenance and upgrades. A discount is applied depending on the volume of The current aircraft parking fee structure appears fuel purchased by a customer. Table 8-4 outlines to reflect industry standards. the current fuel cost structure. It is recommended that Nakina Airport Table 8-4 – Nakina Fuel Cost maintain the current parking fee structure Volume Rate and adjust it periodically to reflect industry standards. 1 – 50,000 litres Fuel cost + $0.39/litre 51,000 – 150,000 litres Fuel cost + $0.30/litre 8.3.3 Airport Improvement Fees 151,000 – 500,000 litres Fuel cost + $0.20/litre Passenger service charges are commonly referred to as terminal service fees, and are 500,001 – 750,000 litres Fuel cost + $0.15/litre collected to cover the costs directly related to the > 750,001 litres Fuel cost + $0.12/litre use of passenger buildings. In Canada, the most common charge recognized by air travelers is the
Airport Improvement Fee (AIF).
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 8-3 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Consultations with the airport operator suggest Lands required for non-aeronautical purposes that negotiations are currently in progress are leased to individuals and/or organizations at between the fuelling supplier and the airport in a greater distance from the runway, taxiway, and order to negotiate an appropriate fuel concession apron environments, as these types of fee. The revenue and expenditures forecast businesses usually do not require access to presented at the end of this chapter provides these facilities. recommendations for fuel concession revenue Nakina Airport is capable of developing land for percentages. long-term lease to external third parties, as It is recommended that Nakina Airport shown within the Development Concept maintain the current fuel surcharge presented in Chapter 6. The Airport should structure to offset the operation and retain ownership of the land through a long-term maintenance of the fuel system. lease as it has two key advantages. Firstly, it minimizes the land development costs to the Recently, the Municipality granted Nakina Air tenant, but secondly, and more importantly, the Service permission to install and operate their airport retains ownership and control of the land own aviation fuel facility on the Airport. Based on uses at the site and is able to regain full control historical records, Nakina Air Service accounted of this property through a termination of the for approximately 82% of Jet A-1 fuel volume lease, if necessary. Potential investors may be sold in 2011. Although Nakina Air Service will be reluctant to invest capital on lease land; however, required to pay a per-litre surcharge on fuel, it will if the terms of the lease are long-term, be considerably lower than the surcharges other investment is usually more likely. airport users will pay. A reduction in fuel sales by the Municipality will have a noticeable impact on airport revenues. 8.5 Revenue and Expenditures Forecast 8.4 Non-Aeronautical Revenue 8.5.1 General 8.4.1 Airport Land Leases The Financial Forecast tables presented in Airports generally own the lands within their Appendix C are rough order-of-magnitude. property boundary and opt to lease areas to Capital costs were determined based on similar parties interested in operating their business at projects and recent industry experience and the airport, aviation or non-aviation related. should be considered as rough order-of- Interested parties usually enter into an magnitude only. More accurate estimates will be agreement with the airport owner to lease the possible once preliminary and detailed property for a set period of time, for a particular engineering designs are undertaken. Market use. Lease rates are established and the user conditions at the time of implementation may also pays the airport for use of the land on a regular affect the final costs. For the purpose of revenue basis, usually monthly or annually. and expenditure forecasting, the medium growth scenario was utilized. A number of economic Airport operators typically elect to lease lands for factors could affect the results of the model and aeronautical uses that are located adjacent to the success of the airport’s revenue generating operational airside areas (i.e. taxiways and initiatives, such as actual rate of traffic growth, aprons). which are subject to prevailing economic conditions.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 8-4 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
8.5.2 Model Assumptions The AIF will continue at $5.40 per scheduled A number of assumptions have been made in passenger, adjusted annually for inflation. preparing the financial forecast tables as Concession revenues are expected to presented in Appendix C. increase in line with scheduled passenger growth. Financial income and expenditure for the short-term has been developed on a yearly It is anticipated that Nakina Air Service will basis. Income and expenditure for the purchase its own aviation fuel commencing medium and long-terms have been grouped in 2013. Based on airport records, Nakina Air into their banded years. Service on average purchases approximately 80% of Jet A fuel sold at Nakina Airport. Detailed financial planning is only relevant in Nakina Air Service will pay the Municipality the short-term with the medium and long- $0.06/litre for the first million litres, $0.04/litre term projections having more uncertainty and for the second million litres, and $0.03/litre provides an indication and outlook only. for the third million litres. Complete financial information was provided for 2009, 2010, and 2011. Expenditure and Current land lease revenues are based on Revenue values for 2012 were estimated existing lease agreements. Lease revenues based partial data for 2012, previous years, are based on a rate of $0.38 per square foot and forecasted growth. per annum for Airside Commercial and of $0.10 per square foot per annum for non- A 20% engineering and project management airside land. New leases are based on the contingency has been be added to all capital rate above. Lease revenues within the infrastructure projects. forecast include 3% annual inflation. Inflation has been established at 3% across For the purpose of revenue and expenditure the financial forecast tables. forecasting, a lot absorption rate of 1 lot Current user fees are considered to be every 2 years was assumed. Because consistent with industry averages and have Nakina Airport currently has one airside been assumed to continue and grow with tenant, an analysis of historical lot absorption inflation. was not valid. Lot absorption will be driven primarily by events related to mineral No landing fees will be collected for Local exploration and mining in the region and will Private, Civil Government, or Military likely be sporadic. operations.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 8-5 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
9 Conclusions and Recommendations
9.1 Conclusions Nakina Airport’s deficiencies include, but are not limited to a lack of weather observation Nakina Airport primarily supports limited equipment and a need for a published flight scheduled passenger activity and mineral approach procedure to increase airport exploration activities. The airfield is in need availability and improve aviation safety. The of infrastructure reorganization to current NDB decision height is high, putting accommodate commercial development. Nakina Airport at a further disadvantage with While the runway length at Nakina Airport is competing airports in the region. 3,500 ft. the preferred length to serve the Commercial and industrial development of resource industry is 5,000 ft. to the airport will be tied directly to the resource accommodate larger passenger and cargo sector. Because the airport has had only one aircraft. Because the runway is constrained airside tenant for an extended period of time, by Munro Lake and the Community of Nakina it is difficult to forecast commercial lot the cost of extending the runway to is absorption rates. Development of the airport considered to be prohibitively high. will be based on events related to mineral Pickle Lake Airport is a significant threat to exploration (i.e. road construction to the Ring the future development of Nakina Airport. of Fire) and will not be time driven. Although Nakina is located approximately 30km closer to McFaulds Lake, the 4,900 ft. The Airport’s economic impact will grow as runway at Pickle Lake Airport can its level of activity increases. Increases in accommodate larger aircraft. Consultations runway operations and passenger volumes with resource companies suggest that their will raise its impact. The forecasts of future preliminary logistics plans recommend the impact consider the airport as serving use of either Pickle Lake, or one of prospecting, natural resources and small Greenstone’s two airports. aircraft access to remote communities. Economic impact will depend more on Future development of Nakina Airport will runway operations rather than passenger likely be limited to supporting mineral volumes. exploration. It is well-suited to accommodate smaller aircraft types typically filling this role, Nakina Airport’s financial performance is including helicopters. Based on mining relatively good; however, annual losses have logistics strategies, neither of the Greenstone escalated in recent years. The Municipality airports will likely play a substantial role in currently collects all fees typical of Canadian supporting operational mines. airports. Based on the airport’s operating revenue and expenditures, capital projects
associated with airport development will require outside funding.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 9-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
9.2 Recommendations Phase 2 includes expansion of Apron I to the east in order to provide access to additional The following actions are recommended: airside commercial lots and to increase the 1. It is recommended that Commercial and space available for aircraft parking. Projects Industrial Development of Nakina Airport include expansion of Apron I, establishment of be undertaken in three phases, with a secondary taxiway, and development and developments triggered only as needed. servicing of additional airside commercial lots. Phase 1 includes opening more land to early 2. Phase 3 includes construction of a commercial development. This will achieve a secondary apron to provide access to maximum amount of short term space with commercial lands east of Apron I. Specific minimum capital investment. Projects include projects for each phase are presented in development of commercial lots north of Table 9-1. Apron I, relocating the fuel storage and 3. It is recommended that an Automated staging lots, and providing access and Weather Observation System be installed municipal services. Establishing lots on the and that a Non-Precision WAAS approach northern edge of the existing apron will delay be developed for the airport. These the need for airfield infrastructure expansion improvements should be made in the short- or improvement. term to increase airport availability and improve safety.
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 9-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table 9-1 – Phased Development Projects
Phase Project
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc. Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road Provide Municipal Water Service to 4 Airside Lots Phase 1 Prepare 2 Groundside Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Groundside Lots Construct New Access Road (2 Groundside Lots) Construct Long-Term Parking Lot
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc. Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road Construct New Access Road (4 Airside Lots) Phase 2 Provide Municipal Water Service to 4 Airside Lots Code C Taxiway 'B' Construction Prepare 2 Groundside Lots Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Groundside Lots Construct New Access Road (2 Groundside Lots)
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc. Imported Structural Fill Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road Construct New Access Road (4 Airside Lots) Phase 3 Provide Municipal Water Service to 4 Airside Lots Code C Taxiway 'C' Construction Prepare 2 Groundside Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Groundside Lots Construct New Access Road (2 Groundside Lots)
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy 9-3 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Appendix A – Surface Wind Analysis
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy A-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis
Prepared for:
Vicki Blanchard, EDO Municipality of Greenstone 1800 Main Street, P.O. Box 70 Geraldton, ON P0T 1M0
Date January 21, 2013
Submitted by:
LPS Aviation Inc. One Antares Drive, Suite 250 Ottawa, Ontario CANADA K2E 8C4
Tel: (613) 226-6050 Fax: (613) 226-5236 e-mail: [email protected] Web site: www.lpsaviation.ca
Executive Summary
This report provides an analysis of surface winds This could be due to differences in terrain, for the Nakina Airport. The analysis is based on a equipment, and siting. For availability limited dataset of winds from Nakina Airport, and calculations, it was deemed that the winds at comparisons with a comprehensive dataset for Geraldton Airport would be closely aligned to the Geraldton Airport approximately 60 km to the those of Nakina. south of Nakina. The thirty two year dataset for Geraldton Airport Hourly data from the Nakina Airport was obtained was analyzed to produce a wind rose chart and for the hours 0800 and 1300 LST May 10 through table of percent frequencies of wind speed and October 26, 2012. This totaled 343 reports. The direction. The results are applicable to the results were presented in the format of a wind Nakina Airport. The wind direction is primarily rose chart and a table of percent frequencies by from the western sector, from the south through direction and speed. the northwest. With the runway approximately The size of the Nakina Airport dataset is too 090-270, there is a high percentage of the winds small to draw firm conclusions about the nature that have crosswind components to the runway. of the wind speed and direction. As a result, thirty However, the wind speeds are relatively light, two years of data was obtained for the Geraldton with only 4.65% of the winds 15 knots or more. Airport nearby. A comparison was made between Two thirds of the winds greater than 15 knots are the winds for the two airports for the same time less than sixty degrees across the runway, periods. Wind data for Geraldton Airport was resulting in crosswind components considerably extracted to match the hours analyzed for Nakina less than 15 knots. Therefore, approximately Airport, and the charts and tables for the two 1.5% of the total wind dataset have a crosswind airports were compared. The wind direction for component approximating 15 knots or more. the two datasets was very close, although the In terms of availability of the runway 09-27 at wind speed at Nakina was approximately 5 knots Nakina Airport due to the wind field, it can be lighter than at Geraldton. expressed as 98.5% for crosswind components less than 15 knots.
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis i
Table of Contents
1 Introduction ...... 1 2 Nakina Airport ...... 2 3 Methodology ...... 3 4 Wind Analysis ...... 2 5 Conclusions ...... 2
List of Figures
Figure 1-1 Map of Nakina and Geraldton Ontario ...... 1 Figure 2-1 Nakina Airport ...... 2 Figure 2-2 Nakina Airport Chart ...... 3 Figure 4-1 Wind Rose Diagram for Nakina Airport May-October 2012 ...... 5 Figure 4-2 Wind Rose Diagram for Geraldton Airport May-October 2012...... 7 Figure 4-3 Wind Rose Diagram for Geraldton Airport 1981-2012 ...... 10
List of Tables
Table 4-1 Frequency of Wind Speed and Direction Nakina Airport May-October 2012 ...... 6 Table 4-2 Frequency of Wind Speed and Direction Geraldton Airport May-October 2012 ...... 9 Table 4-3 Frequency of Wind Speed and Direction at Geraldton Airport 1981-2012 ...... 11
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis ii
1 Introduction
The purpose of this study is to provide an 60 km north of Longlac and Geraldton. There are analysis of wind direction and speed at the no topographical features that would impact the Nakina Airport. Nakina is located north of Lake wind direction or speed at the airport in a Superior and east of Lake Nipigon in northern significant way. As there was limited data Ontario. The airport is located near the Nakina available from the Nakina Airport, winds were town site in terrain dotted with many lakes and also analyzed from Geraldton Airport, surrounded forested hills 200 to 300 feet above the airport. by similar terrain, and the results extrapolated for Figure 1-1 is a map of Nakina located about the Nakina Airport.
Figure 1-1 – Map of Nakina and Geraldton in Northern Ontario
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 1
2 Nakina Airport
The Nakina Airport is located just east of the There is a 6 Deg. West variation which makes town site as pictured in Figure 2-1 below. The the runway approximately 087-267 Degrees runway is 3500 feet long and 100 feet wide, with True. The airport chart showing the runway is an orientation of 093-273 Deg. Magnetic. included as Figure 2-2.
Figure 2-1 – Nakina Airport
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 2
Figure 2-2 – Nakina Airport Chart
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 2
3 Methodology
Data was collected at the Nakina Airport for two The next step was to compare the winds from hours per day, 0800 and 1300 LST, during the Nakina Airport with winds from Geraldton Airport months from May to October 2012. This is a very for the same time period; that is from May to limited amount of data to assess a prevailing October 2012, for the hours 0800 and 1300 LST. wind for airport development. Charts and tables were produced for Geraldton Airport and the results compared with those of To improve the accuracy of the analysis, data Nakina Airport. The results were found to be was also obtained for the Geraldton Airport, comparable. approximately 60 km to the south. Thirty two years of data was analyzed for Geraldton Airport, The last step was to conduct the analysis for the totalling 273,148 hourly reports from 1981 thirty two years of data for Geraldton Airport and through 2012. apply these results to Nakina Airport with any qualifiers. The first step was to analyze the limited data of winds from Nakina Airport and produce a wind chart and tabular summary. The wind dataset was produced in km/h and had to be converted to knots. There were 342 wind reports in the analysis.
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 3
4 Wind Analysis
Following the methodology described in the Figure 4-1 presents the wind rose diagram for previous section of this report, the limited data for Nakina Airport May through October 2012 at Nakina Airport was analysed and charts and 0800 and 1300 LST. tables produced.
Figure 4 -1 Wind Rose Diagram for Nakina Airport
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 2
Table 4-1 – Percent Frequency Nakina Airport Winds May – October 2012 0800 & 1300 LST
Wind Direction 1-5 kt 5-10 kt 10-15 kt 15-20 kt 20-25 kt 25-30 kt > 30 kt Total
355 - 5 0.58% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 5 - 15 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 15 - 25 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 25 - 35 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 35 - 45 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.29% 45 - 55 0.88% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.46% 55 - 65 0.29% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 65 - 75 0.88% 1.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.63% 75 - 85 0.58% 1.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 85 - 95 1.46% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 95 - 105 1.17% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 105 - 115 1.46% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 115 - 125 0.88% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 125 - 135 1.46% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 135 - 145 0.58% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 145 - 155 1.46% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.34% 155 - 165 2.92% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.92% 165 - 175 3.80% 1.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56% 175 - 185 4.39% 1.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56% 185 - 195 2.63% 1.17% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.09% 195 - 205 3.22% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.51% 205 - 215 3.22% 2.92% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 6.43% 215 - 225 2.05% 2.05% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.39% 225 - 235 3.22% 1.17% 1.17% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.85% 235 - 245 2.05% 1.75% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.09% 245 - 255 2.34% 1.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.80% 255 - 265 1.75% 2.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.80% 265 - 275 1.75% 1.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.92% 275 - 285 0.88% 2.92% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.09% 285 - 295 1.46% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.34% 295 - 305 1.46% 3.80% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56% 305 - 315 1.46% 3.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.68% 315 - 325 1.75% 1.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.92% 325 - 335 1.17% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 335 - 345 0.88% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.46% 345 - 355 0.58% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.17% Sub-Total 55.85% 40.35% 3.22% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 99.71% Calms: 0.29%
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 1
Based on this data, the surface winds were Figure 4-3 is the same chart for Geraldton as is predominantly from the west, ranging from south presented in Figure 4-1 for Nakina. through northwest. There were few cases of winds from the easterly direction. The percent The pattern at Geraldton is very similar to that of frequency of strong winds was exceptionally low, Nakina. The winds are quite evenly divided from with only 0.29% 15 knots or more. the western sector from the south through the northwest. The wind speeds are somewhat The next step in the analysis was to compare the higher at Geraldton, approximately 5 knots, as above Nakina Airport results with those for evidenced in Table 4-2. The runway orientation Geraldton Airport for the same time period. The at Nakina is overlaid on the Geraldton tabular hourly reports for 0800 and 1300 LST were data. There are only two frequencies of concern extracted from the Geraldton Airport data and on the table where the crosswind could be similar charts and tables were prepared. If the greater than 15 knots, and their total is data was deemed comparable, then it follows approximately 0.6%. The majority of stronger that the longer term annual results for Geraldton winds are oriented along or close to the runway Airport would apply to Nakina Airport. direction.
Figure 4-3 Wind Rose Diagram for Geraldton Airport May – October 2012 0800 & 1300 LST
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 2
Table 4-2 – Wind Frequencies Geraldton Airport May – October 2012 0800 & 1300 LST
Wind Direction 1-5kt 5-10kt 10-15kt 15-20kt 20-25kt 25-30kt >30kt Total 355 - 5 0.58% 2.05% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.51% 5 - 15 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 15 - 25 0.29% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 25 - 35 0.88% 1.46% 0.00% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.63% 35 - 45 0.88% 0.58% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 45 - 55 0.29% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 55 - 65 0.29% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.17% 65 - 75 0.58% 0.88% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.34% 75 - 85 0.29% 0.58% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 85 - 95 0.29% 0.00% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 95 - 105 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 105 - 115 0.29% 0.88% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 115 - 125 0.29% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 125 - 135 0.29% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 135 - 145 0.58% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.88% 145 - 155 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.58% 155 - 165 0.29% 1.46% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.75% 165 - 175 0.58% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.17% 175 - 185 0.29% 2.05% 1.17% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.80% 185 - 195 0.29% 1.46% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 195 - 205 0.29% 0.58% 1.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 205 - 215 1.75% 0.58% 0.88% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.51% 215 - 225 1.46% 1.46% 1.75% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56% 225 - 235 0.29% 2.05% 0.88% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.22% 235 - 245 0.58% 1.46% 1.75% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.39% 245 - 255 0.88% 0.88% 1.75% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.80% 255 - 265 1.46% 1.46% 0.29% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.51% 265 - 275 1.46% 2.05% 1.17% 0.29% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 5.26% 275 - 285 0.29% 1.17% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 285 - 295 0.00% 0.88% 0.88% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 295 - 305 1.75% 2.34% 1.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.85% 305 - 315 1.46% 2.63% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4.68% 315 - 325 0.00% 0.88% 1.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% 325 - 335 1.46% 2.34% 1.75% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 5.56% 335 - 345 0.00% 1.46% 1.17% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.92% 345 - 355 1.17% 0.29% 0.58% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.05% Sub-Total 23.10% 37.43% 24.56% 3.80% 0.29% 0.00% 0.00% 89.18% Calms 10.82%
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 1
Given that the wind direction is very similar at chart for Geraldton Airport for the years 1981 Geraldton in comparison to Nakina, it is logical through 2012 is presented as Figure 4-3. that the wind analysis for Geraldton could be applied to Nakina. The wind speeds are The tabular data for percent frequencies of wind proportionally higher at Geraldton Airport by direction and speed at Geraldton Airport is approximately 5 knots, which could be a result of presented in Table 4-3. There are only 4.65% of differences in measuring equipment, averaging the winds greater than 15 knots and one-third of calculations, or terrain. In terms of the runway these would provide a crosswind component of orientation at Nakina, or in calculating the 15 knots or more on Runway 09-27 in Nakina. frequency of crosswinds and availability, it would Runway availability due to crosswinds in Nakina, be safe to use Geraldton as a comparable assuming the data for Geraldton applies, would reference. be approximately 98.5%.
The analysis of thirty two years of data at Geraldton Airport was conducted. The wind rose
Figure 4-3 Wind Rose Diagram for Geraldton Airport 1981-2012.
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 1
Table 4-3 – Wind Frequencies Geraldton Airport 1981-2012
Wind Direction 1-5kt 5-10kt 10-15kt 15-20kt 20-25kt 25-30kt >30kt Total 355 - 5 0.79% 1.18% 0.69% 0.14% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.81% 5 - 15 0.48% 0.74% 0.40% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.69% 15 - 25 0.58% 0.83% 0.40% 0.08% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.89% 25 - 35 0.67% 0.92% 0.43% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.10% 35 - 45 0.56% 0.81% 0.39% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.83% 45 - 55 0.58% 0.94% 0.47% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.08% 55 - 65 0.74% 1.07% 0.52% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.43% 65 - 75 0.71% 0.92% 0.37% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.07% 75 - 85 0.78% 0.81% 0.35% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.01% 85 - 95 0.84% 0.84% 0.33% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 2.07% 95 - 105 0.64% 0.62% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.48% 105 - 115 0.59% 0.54% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.28% 115 - 125 0.62% 0.53% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.28% 125 - 135 0.44% 0.36% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.89% 135 - 145 0.46% 0.37% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.93% 145 - 155 0.60% 0.50% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.29% 155 - 165 0.57% 0.60% 0.28% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 1.53% 165 - 175 0.58% 0.68% 0.40% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 1.78% 175 - 185 0.92% 1.22% 0.82% 0.26% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 3.24% 185 - 195 0.81% 1.17% 0.73% 0.25% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 2.98% 195 - 205 0.88% 1.37% 0.92% 0.28% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 3.47% 205 - 215 1.07% 1.38% 0.89% 0.27% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 3.64% 215 - 225 1.11% 1.20% 0.64% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 3.15% 225 - 235 1.12% 1.05% 0.49% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.80% 235 - 245 1.45% 1.30% 0.64% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 3.56% 245 - 255 1.32% 1.42% 0.67% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 3.59% 255 - 265 1.27% 1.41% 0.65% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 3.50% 265 - 275 1.34% 1.56% 0.78% 0.19% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 3.89% 275 - 285 0.91% 0.99% 0.49% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.52% 285 - 295 0.86% 1.06% 0.54% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.60% 295 - 305 1.11% 1.46% 0.82% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 3.57% 305 - 315 0.85% 1.14% 0.64% 0.17% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.81% 315 - 325 0.85% 1.15% 0.67% 0.17% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.86% 325 - 335 1.04% 1.28% 0.76% 0.17% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 3.26% 335 - 345 0.78% 0.97% 0.56% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.46% 345 - 355 0.70% 0.93% 0.58% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 2.32% Sub-Total 29.64% 35.31% 18.08% 4.32% 0.31% 0.02% 0.00% 87.68% Calms: 12.32%
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 1
5 Conclusions
The surface winds are analyzed for a very limited The winds were then analyzed for thirty two dataset at the Nakina Airport for the hours 0800 years at Geraldton Airport. Graphs and tables and 1300 LST May through October 2012. Winds were provided that demonstrated the availability for the same time period were analyzed from the of the Runway 09-27 at Nakina Airport would be Geraldton Airport nearby. The surface wind approximately 98.5% based on surface wind pattern in terms of speed and direction were speed and direction. A high proportion of the found to be very similar between the two airports, winds were across the Runway 09-27, however, although the wind speed at Nakina Airport was they were sufficiently light to avoid the found to be approximately five knots lighter than occurrence of crosswinds 15 knots or more at Geraldton Airport. 98.5% of the time.
Nakina Airport Surface Wind Analysis 2
Appendix B – Activity Forecasting
3
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy B-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table B-1 – Operations Forecasts for the Nakina Airport Year Low Medium High 2012 5,648 5,648 5,648 2013 5,648 5,697 5,697 2014 4,977 5,756 5,756 2015 4,385 5,813 6,155 2016 3,864 5,871 6,581 2017 3,405 5,930 7,038 2018 3,000 5,989 7,525 2019 3,000 6,049 8,047 2020 3,000 6,114 8,605 2021 3,000 6,181 8,698 2022 3,000 6,248 8,793 2023 3,000 6,316 8,888 2024 3,000 6,385 8,985 2025 3,000 6,454 9,082 2026 3,000 6,524 9,181 2027 3,000 6,595 9,281 2028 3,000 6,667 9,382 2029 3,000 6,739 9,484 2030 3,000 6,813 9,587 2031 3,000 6,887 9,691 2032 3,000 6,961 9,796 2033 3,000 7,037 9,903 2034 3,000 7,114 10,011 2035 3,000 7,191 10,119 Growth Rates 2012-2015 -8.09% 0.97% 2.91% 2015-2020 -7.31% 1.01% 6.93% 2020-2035 0.00% 1.09% 1.09% 2012-2020 -2.71% 1.06% 2.57%
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Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy B-2 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table B-2 – Passenger Forecasts
Year Low Medium High 2012 8,886 8,975 9,183 2013 8,886 9,065 9,490 2014 8,886 9,155 9,807 2015 8,886 9,247 10,135 2016 7,336 9,339 10,473 2017 6,056 9,433 10,823 2018 5,000 9,527 11,185 2019 5,000 9,622 11,559 2020 5,000 9,718 11,945 2021 5,000 9,816 12,344 2022 5,000 9,914 12,757 2023 5,000 10,013 13,183 2024 5,000 10,113 13,623 2025 5,000 10,214 14,079 2026 5,000 10,316 14,549 2027 5,000 10,420 15,035 2028 5,000 10,524 15,538 2029 5,000 10,629 16,057 2030 5,000 10,735 16,593 2031 5,000 10,843 17,148 2032 5,000 10,951 17,721 2033 5,000 11,061 18,313 2034 5,000 11,171 18,925 2035 5,000 11,283 19,557 Growth Rates 2012-2015 0.00% 1.00% 3.34% 2015-2020 -10.86% 1.00% 3.34% 2020-2035 0.00% 1.00% 3.34% 2012-2020 -2.47% 1.00% 3.34%
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Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy B-3 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Forecasting Regression Models
1. Model Structure
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 3.121535 0.818972 3.811527 0.002477 Real GDP 0.362756 0.134682 2.693427 0.019546
2. Goodness of Fit statistics Multiple R 0.613817 Standard Error 0.021205 R Square 0.376771 Observations 14 Adjusted R Square 0.324835
Degrees of Freedom Sum of Squares Mean Square F Regression 1 0.003262 0.003262 7.254551 Residual 12 0.005396 0.00045 Total 13 0.008658
Regression of Airport Activity Statistics on Real Ontario Gross Domestic Product
1. Model Structure
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 2.733429 0.776855 3.518586 2.733429 Real GDP 0.455828 0.136514 3.339047 0.455828
2. Goodness of Fit statistics Multiple R 0.693992 Standard Error 0.019339 R Square 0.481624 Observations 14 Adjusted R Square 0.438426
Degrees of Freedom Sum of Squares Mean Square F Regression 1 0.00417 0.00417 11.14923 Residual 12 0.004488 0.000374 Total 13 0.008658
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Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy B-4 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Appendix C – Financial Plan
3
Commercial/Industrial Development Strategy C-1 R. Elmer Ruddick Nakina Airport
Table C-1 - Projected Operating Revenues and Expenses
2012 Short-Term Medium Term Long Term Estimated 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022 2023-2033
Passenger Movement Forecast 8,975 9,065 9,155 9,247 9,339 9,433 48,597 115,819 Aircraft Movement Forecast 5,648 5,697 5,756 5,813 5,871 5,930 30,581 73,378
Operating Revenues Leases / Fees $12,349 $21,570 $22,217 $31,734 $32,686 $42,517 $290,596 $1,334,337 Landing / Parking / Callout $39,826 $41,419 $43,075 $44,798 $46,608 $48,491 $273,611 $836,676 Sale of AvGas 100LL $6,907 $7,183 $7,470 $7,769 $8,083 $8,410 $47,452 $145,102 Sale of Jet A-1 $1,157,599 $318,246 $321,333 $324,450 $327,727 $331,037 $1,706,844 $4,095,280 Air Terminal Fees $16,429 $17,091 $17,780 $18,497 $19,242 $20,018 $112,859 $342,715 Airport Improvement Fees $33,981 $35,350 $36,775 $38,257 $39,799 $41,403 $233,427 $708,842 Concession Revenue $2,120 $2,206 $2,295 $2,387 $2,484 $2,584 $14,566 $44,234
Total Gross Income $1,269,211 $443,066 $450,946 $467,892 $476,628 $494,458 $2,679,356 $7,507,186
Operating Expenses Administration $120,305 $123,914 $127,631 $131,460 $135,404 $139,466 $762,659 $2,132,883 Airport Buildings $153,228 $157,824 $162,559 $167,436 $172,459 $177,633 $971,369 $2,716,570 Airfield Lighting $3,864 $3,980 $4,100 $4,223 $4,349 $4,480 $24,498 $68,512 Airside Pavements $1,511 $1,556 $1,603 $1,651 $1,700 $1,751 $9,577 $26,783 Grounds Maintenance $863 $889 $916 $943 $972 $1,001 $5,473 $15,305 Aviation Products $1,061,188 $236,153 $239,001 $241,900 $244,946 $248,048 $1,289,428 $3,173,836 Maintenance Equipment $22,994 $23,685 $24,395 $25,127 $25,881 $26,657 $145,774 $407,676
Total Operating Expenses $1,363,953 $548,002 $560,206 $572,740 $585,712 $599,036 $3,208,777 $8,541,566
Income - Expenses -$94,742 -$104,936 -$109,260 -$104,848 -$109,083 -$104,578 -$529,422 -$1,034,380 Profit / Loss Loss Loss Loss Loss Loss Loss Loss Loss
Note: Operating Expenses do not include the depreciation of equipment, facilities, etc. Table C-2 - Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) Capital Cost Estmates
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc.$ 114,000 Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots$ 24,000 Install Municipal Water Service for 4 Airside Lots$ 39,600 Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road$ 1,200 Prepare 2 Groundside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc.$ 56,400 Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Groundside Lots$ 16,800 Install Automated Weather Observating Station (AWOS)$ 240,000 Construct New Access Road (4 Airside Lots)$ 36,000
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc.$ 115,200 Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots$ 16,800 Install Municipal Water Service for 4 Airside Lots$ 26,400 Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road$ 6,000 Prepare 2 Groundside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc.$ 56,400 Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Groundside Lots$ 8,400 Construct New Access Road (4 Airside Lots)$ 25,200 Code C Taxiway 'B' Construction$ 247,200 Apron I Expansion $ 1,476,000
Prepare 4 Airside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc.$ 135,600 Imported Structural Fill $ 236,400 Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 4 Airside Lots$ 45,600 Tree Clearing - 4 Airside Lots + Access Road$ 16,800 Install Municipal Water Service for 4 Airside Lots$ 73,920 Prepare 2 Groundside Lots - Grading, Hydroseeding, etc.$ 56,400 Supply and Install Subdrain Piping for 2 Groundside Lots$ 8,400 Construct New Access Road (4 Airside Lots)$ 67,200 Code C Taxiway 'C' Construction $ 58,800 Apron II Construction $ 171,600
Total Capital Expenses $528,000 $1,977,600 $870,720
Note: Capital estimates include a 20% engineering and project management contingency One Antares Drive, Suite 250
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