CURRENT HISTORY April 2010

“Even if all essential parties are interested in a negotiated settlement, getting to yes is no sure thing.”

Afghanistan’s Rocky Path to Peace J Alexander Thier

t is a hallmark of intractable conflicts that ments and uphold them. Further, the content the distance between the status quo and of an agreement or series of agreements, as well Ithe conflict’s inevitable resolution can appear as the process by which any accord would be unbridgeable. Such is the case with today’s established, is uncertain. And even if all essential Afghanistan. parties are interested in a negotiated settlement, For the first time since 2001, when the US-led getting to yes is no sure thing. intervention in Afghanistan began, a serious pros- pect exists for political dialogue among the vari- Peace—who wants it? ous combatants, aimed at the cessation of armed Winston Churchill said “to jaw-jaw is always conflict. Over the past few months, and high- better than to war-war,” but jaw-jaw is not always lighted by a conference on Afghanistan held in easier. In Afghanistan, the process is not off to London on January 28, 2010, signs have emerged a promising start. Already, US Secretary of State of a concerted and comprehensive effort to engage Hillary Clinton has all but ruled out negotiat- elements of the insurgency in negotiations, recon- ing with the Taliban’s senior leadership. She told ciliation, and reintegration. National Public Radio in January that the United In London, Afghan President Hamid Karzai States is “not going to talk to the really bad guys repeated a previous offer to negotiate with, and because the really bad guys are not ever going to reintegrate, not only low-level foot soldiers renounce Al Qaeda and renounce violence and and commanders of the Afghan insurgency, but agree to re-enter society. That is not going to hap- also its leadership, including the Taliban chief pen with people like Mullah Omar and the like.” Mullah Muhammad Omar. Karzai went further by Meanwhile, President Barack Obama took full announcing that he would in the spring convene ownership of the war in a December 1, 2009, a national peace jirga, a traditional Afghan assem- speech at the US Military Academy. The president, bly, to facilitate high-level talks with the insur- after having sent 21,000 additional troops to gency. Karzai expressed hope that Saudi Arabia Afghanistan in the first months of his presidency, would play a key role in this process. ordered another 30,000 soldiers into the theater— Eight and a half years after the invasion, amid a place he called the “epicenter of violent extrem- rising insecurity across Afghanistan and with ism,” where “our national security is at stake.” By a continuously expanding international troop the summer of 2010, the international presence presence in the country, the prospect of a negoti- will amount to about 135,000 troops, with the ated settlement with some or all elements of the United States contributing 100,000 of them. insurgency is enticing. However, a successful path Obama’s announcement came nine days before toward sustainable peace in Afghanistan remains he accepted the Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo, but it far from obvious. Fundamental questions persist was no peacemaker’s gambit. Rather, he sent the about the willingness and capability of key actors, troops to undergird a robust new strategy aimed inside and outside Afghanistan, to reach agree- at displacing the insurgency from key population centers. While this surge of forces may eventually create more propitious conditions for a negoti- J Alexander Thier is the director for Afghanistan and Paki- stan at the US Institute of Peace. He is the editor and coauthor ated settlement, it may in the near term have the of The Future of Afghanistan (USIP, 2009). opposite effect.

131 132 • CURRENT HISTORY • April 2010

Even so, it is time to take seriously the idea of ity were established and international forces political reconciliation in Afghanistan, to weigh the withdrew. Other Karzai allies—such as his two prospects for arriving at such an outcome, and to warlord-cum vice presidents from the Northern consider the obstacles in the way. If we cannot even Alliance, Muhammad Fahim and Karim Khalili— imagine how reconciliation might be achieved, it represent constituencies that have fought the will be impossible either to prepare the way or to Taliban since 1994 and are not keen to see them determine whether the path is worth traveling in gain any power. the first place. Other potential opponents of a peace deal Is the conflict in Afghanistan ripe for resolu- include civil society organizations that have tion? In a conflict, after all, reaching a settlement pushed for human and especially women’s rights can be very difficult even when the key players in the post-Taliban period. Allowing the return of have decided that they want it. Every war has its Taliban-style gender apartheid policies, even in own logic—and its own economy. limited sections of the country, would be anath- Peace in Afghanistan will require the stars to ema to these groups and the vocal international align. Several constellations of actors will have constituency that supports them. to participate to secure a lasting peace. These include the “progovernment Afghans”—that is, Men with guns along with the government itself, those opposi- And what about the insurgents? The three tion groups that are not fighting the government; major groupings—Mullah Omar’s Taliban, directed the insurgents (themselves composed of at least from sites in Pakistan; the Haqqani network; and three major groupings); the United States and its Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e-Islami—are not a partners in the International Security Assistance monolith, and may treat the prospect of negotia- Force (ISAF); and regional powers like Pakistan, tions differently. This differentiation is often seen as Iran, India, and China. Also in the mix are several a good thing, because parts of the insurgency might spoilers—groups that likely will never want sta- split off from the rest. But recalcitrant actors might bility. These include Al Qaeda, Pakistani radical also try to sabotage the process. Also, even a suc- groups in solidarity with the Afghan insurgents, cessful settlement with one group will not under and the drug traffickers who move 90 percent of these circumstances end the insurgency. the world’s illicit opium. The harder question, though, is why the insur- In any case, do the progovernment forces want gency would sue for peace if it believes it is win- to reconcile with the Taliban? Karzai, who sees his ning and the Americans are preparing to leave. future and his legacy hinging on a political settle- Considering the Karzai government’s continued ment, has been a strong advocate for such efforts, loss of moral authority, the insurgency’s still large- and he is using his executive power and personal ly safe haven in Pakistan, and an ongoing decline prestige in support of them. He is backed by large in public support for the war in NATO countries, segments of an Afghan society that is bone-tired the insurgents might easily decide to wait out the of war and is likely willing to accept significant next few years, meanwhile waging a very effective compromises in exchange for stability. guerrilla campaign. Many, however, including some close to But several factors could conspire to change Karzai, may be much more ambivalent. Assume their calculus. The first is the war itself. Obama’s for a moment that a deal means conceding to deployment decisions will essentially double the the Taliban control over some part of southern number of forces in the country this year. The Afghanistan. The people around Karzai who gov- Afghan security forces are also growing—and ern these provinces, who operate construction some are getting better at their jobs. The bigger and road-building enterprises, and who profit force numbers, moreover, are accompanied by a from the drug trade would under such a settle- new counterinsurgency strategy, one that looks ment lose their power and their cash cows. likely to produce effects more lasting than those Two of the enterprises that generate the most generated by the Bush administration’s “economy profit are transport—essential for supplying of force” strategy, which involved too few troops international forces—and private security, in the to secure territory won through battle. form of companies that guard convoys, bases, NATO also seems finally to have figured out and reconstruction projects. These multibillion- how to reduce Afghan civilian casualties, depriv- dollar industries would wither rapidly if stabil- ing the insurgency of a key propaganda asset at a Afghanistan’s Rocky Path to Peace • 133 moment when militants are killing more civilians and Mir Muhammad, the Taliban’s “shadow gov- than ever. The United Nations estimates that in ernors” for two Afghan provinces. 2008 the Afghan and international military forces Pakistan has come under increasing pressure killed 828 civilians, and the insurgents killed from the Obama administration to confront the 1,160. In 2009, the numbers were 596 and 1,630 Afghan Taliban, with senior US officials report- respectively. edly telling the Pakistanis that if they do not The war on the Pakistani side of the border, act within their own territory, the United States involving drone aircraft, has also been stepped up, will. Islamabad is also grappling with an internal and both the Pakistani Taliban’s top leader and his struggle against militants who are determined replacement have been picked off in such strikes to overthrow the state, and it has learned some in recent months. It is unclear whether guided hard lessons after getting burned by extremist missile attacks have been used against Afghan fires that it has stoked in the past. That said, insurgent targets in Pakistan as yet, but certainly Pakistan is unlikely to abandon its longstanding the capability exists. patron-client relationships with groups that it If all this adds up to a change in military still considers strategic assets. But it might use momentum, popular attitudes might change, cost- its leverage to help force a political outcome in ing the Taliban support and increasing the num- Afghanistan. ber of people willing to inform or even fight The United States, despite some hedging, against them. seems to view an Afghan political settlement Increased credibility of Afghan and interna- that includes the Taliban as a possible ele- tional civilian efforts also could have an impact ment of its plan to draw down US forces. In on public opinion. While most Afghans do not early 2009, the Obama administration’s focus support the Taliban, they have had little incen- was almost exclusively on “reintegration,” or tive to risk their necks for a coaxing insurgents off the government widely viewed battlefield, rather than as corrupt and ineffective. Pakistan’s attitude toward the use “reconciliation,” which If the Afghan government implies a broader politi- of militants as a strategic asset in and its international part- cal settlement with insur- ners can present a compel- Kashmir and Afghanistan is changing. gent leaders. According to ling, plausible alternative a March 2009 statement of to the Taliban, backed by Obama’s new Afghanistan significant new investments in delivery of ser- and Pakistan strategy: “Mullah Omar and the vices and good governance, the environment Taliban’s hard core that have aligned themselves will become less hospitable for the insurgents. with Al Qaeda are not reconcilable and we can- The Afghan government and NATO have also not make a deal that includes them.” launched a massive new reintegration effort It appears that eight months of bad news from intended to lure insurgent soldiers and low-level Afghanistan, along with declining support for commanders off the battlefield. If this program the war among the US public and some soul- succeeds in demobilizing combatants and safely searching deliberations, softened the administra- reintegrating them into society, prospects for tion’s stance toward the prospect of negotiations. defeating the rebels would brighten. In his December West Point address, Obama said, “We will support efforts by the Afghan The pakistan factor government to open the door to those Taliban And finally, the insurgency would be dealt a who abandon violence and respect the human heavy blow if it lost its sanctuary in Pakistan. rights of their fellow citizens.” And in January The Taliban recruit, train, fundraise, convalesce, of this year, just days before the London con- and maintain their families there. For years, the ference, General Stanley McChrystal, Obama’s Pakistani government has denied that the insur- handpicked commander of the ISAF, said, “I gent leadership was present in the country, but believe that a political solution to all conflicts is this has begun to change. In February, the govern- the inevitable outcome.” ment arrested Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Afghanistan’s neighbors and other regional operational commander of the Afghan Taliban. powers also have a say in the process—or at least The Pakistanis also arrested Mullahs Abdul Salam a veto. Pakistan, Iran, India, Russia, and Saudi 134 • CURRENT HISTORY • April 2010

Arabia have all contributed to Afghan instability aid to Kabul—despite itself having the highest over the past three decades, supporting various number of poverty-stricken people in the world. warring factions (while also at times supporting Pakistan feels threatened by India’s relationship peaceful development). Afghanistan is a poor, with Afghanistan, and so continues to maintain a mountainous, landlocked country with a weak hedge in the Taliban. central government, and while it is difficult to Many believe, as a consequence, that the road control, it has always been too easily destabilized to peace in Afghanistan runs through Delhi. by the predations and manipulations of larger Yet, if Afghan stability is held hostage to a com- powers. An agreement among regional actors to prehensive accord between Pakistan and India, promote mutual noninterference in Afghanistan’s we can forget about it. In the near term, ways internal affairs would be necessary to secure the must be found to mitigate Pakistan’s concerns peace. about India and Afghanistan. The resumption Efforts to reach such an agreement are ham- of comprehensive talks between Pakistan and pered by regional and international rivalries India—which were tabled after a Pakistan-based that drive the desire to intervene. Pakistan, extremist group carried out a November 2008 the most significant of the regional players, massacre in Mumbai—could provide a critical backed the Taliban in the 1990s in order to end outlet. Also, because of brutality and overreach- Afghanistan’s civil war, open trade routes to ing by the Pakistani Taliban and other groups in the newly independent states in Central Asia, the past few years, Pakistan’s attitude toward the and secure a friendly government in Kabul. use of militants as a strategic asset in Kashmir and This strategy worked for a while, but the Afghanistan is changing. Taliban regime proved so odious and extreme Iran’s potential role also remains ambiguous. that Pakistan found itself, on September 11, Tehran has supported the Karzai government, 2001, on the wrong side of a provided some develop- great conflict engulfing the ment assistance near west- region. Every war has its own logic— ern Afghanistan’s border with The Pakistani security Iran, and was a strong foe establishment, though it and its own economy. of the Taliban. It has also cooperated with the US inva- acted consistently to combat sion of Afghanistan, has the opium trade, which has found it difficult to completely break with its for- helped create an estimated 4 to 5 million Iranian mer clients, and has allowed the Taliban sanctuary addicts—a massive public health crisis. in Pakistan. Thus Pakistan serves simultaneously On the other hand, Iran is encircled by US as the primary supply route for the ISAF and as the forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and it faces con- base for the insurgent leadership. tinuing confrontation with the United States over its nuclear program. A settlement in Afghanistan The indian presence would allow the United States to concentrate more Why this untenable balancing act? The on dealing with Iran, and would free up US military Pakistani military and its intelligence apparatus assets as well. Tehran might prefer to see America still feel surrounded by India. Pakistan has lost bogged down in a costly conflict. three or four wars to India (depending on how you count them). India’s superiority in economic Art of the deal and conventional military strength, combined Prevailing on key parties to agree to a peace with Pakistan’s unresolved border issues with both deal will depend heavily on the shape of the deal India (Kashmir) and Afghanistan (the Durand itself. Last year some starting positions were aired, Line), keeps Pakistan’s guard up. Islamabad is but both sides effectively demanded the other’s also facing a severe domestic militancy crisis that capitulation. The Afghan and US governments has cost thousands of lives—and, in Baluchistan, called on insurgents to reject Al Qaeda, lay down a simmering separatist insurgency that, Pakistan their arms, and accept the Afghan constitution. charges, receives Afghan-Indo support. The insurgents demanded withdrawal of foreign India for its part maintains strong relations with forces, removal of the Karzai government, and the Karzai government and is training Afghan civil revision of the Afghan constitution to create a servants and providing hundreds of millions in “true” Islamic republic. Afghanistan’s Rocky Path to Peace • 135

Each of the three primary parties—the Afghan to the United States represents an even greater government, the Taliban, and the United States— national security concern—will make pulling out would enter negotiations with their political sur- entirely a risky endeavor. vival depending on one condition. For Kabul, For the Obama administration, the one com- the condition for survival is just that—survival. pletely sacrosanct condition for a peace deal In other words, the Karzai government will not with insurgents is a firm, verifiable break with Al make a deal requiring it to step down or hand over Qaeda. Al Qaeda was the reason for going into power. Such a prospect appears to Kabul far worse Afghanistan to begin with, and this issue will than the status quo; in addition, the likelihood of prevent US withdrawal until it is addressed. But the government’s catastrophic collapse seems dis- can the Taliban break with Al Qaeda? The two tant enough to ignore. entities grew up together, and so did their lead- For the Taliban leadership, the condition is ers—fighting the Soviets, ruling Afghanistan from the withdrawal of foreign forces. The Taliban’s 1996 to 2001, and since 2001 returning to the success today relies not on ideology, but rather fight, against the Americans. They have shared on resistance to foreign occupation and Karzai’s foxholes, and reportedly have established family corrupt puppet regime. It would be hard for the ties through marriages. Taliban, perhaps impossible, to accept some sort The Taliban have made an effort to suggest of accommodation with Karzai—but it is nearly they would rule without Al Qaeda. In November unimaginable that the Taliban would accept any 2009, they released a statement claiming that the agreement that does not include the fairly quick “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan wants to take con- withdrawal of foreign forces from the Taliban structive measures together with all countries for heartland, and their timeline-based withdrawal mutual cooperation, economic development, and from the entire country. Between this Taliban [a] good future on the basis of mutual respect.” demand and the US desire to withdraw, a pleas- But would a ban on Al Qaeda in Taliban-controlled ing symmetry exists. But Afghanistan’s fragility territory be verifiable? After all, international ter- and that of neighboring Pakistan—a country that rorist cells continue to operate in Pakistan, where

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Visit fl etcher.tufts.edu or call 617.627.3040 136 • CURRENT HISTORY • April 2010 the United States has resorted to an all-but-official were in contravention of the constitution or the drone war because of the lack of local cooperation terms of the peace agreement. and the inaccessibility of the territory. There is also a real possibility that combatants on all sides of the conflict who have committed Up for discussion war crimes and atrocities will not be brought to Aside from these core conditions, everything justice. Evidence from many conflicts suggests a is to some extent negotiable. Some groups in sustainable peace is unlikely without such reck- the “progovernment” camp have for years sup- oning. ported changes to the 2004 constitution and to Even so, the real issue in negotiations is not like- Afghan law that would increase power sharing, ly to be the rules themselves, but rather who makes decentralization, and strengthening of Islamic and enforces them. Power sharing is the firmament strictures. Many conservative political leaders, of all peace processes, and changing the Afghan mostly former mujahideen figures, would love to political system will have to involve sharing power. see an increased role for Islamic law, or sharia. A What exactly would a power sharing arrangement political and legal map that allows for regional look like? Would the Taliban (and other groups) be variation might make sense in such an ethnically given control over certain provinces? Would they and geographically segmented country. help fill out the ranks of the Afghan national secu- Meanwhile, a process of political reconciliation rity forces? Would they be guaranteed a number with the Taliban could be used not only to mol- of ministries or seats in the parliament? Or would lify the insurgents, but also to address tensions they simply be allowed to compete for such things still lingering from the civil war, as well as per- in a (quasi) democratic process? ceived inequities among Afghanistan’s regions and Peace accords that have been reached in Bosnia, ethnicities, which continue Burundi, and Northern to cause conflict. Addressing Ireland, to name a few exam- these tensions and inequities Most Afghans have had little ples, spell out such arrange- should be a key focus of the incentive to risk their necks for ments in great detail. In the upcoming peace jirga. end, it is even more difficult The United States, its a government widely viewed to implement such complex Western allies, and the UN as corrupt and ineffective. provisions than to agree on would come under serious them. political fire if a deal with Neighboring coun- the Taliban meant abandoning Afghan women— tries will also be looking for certain guarantees. whose privations under the Taliban have served Pakistan wants its allies to succeed, and wants to to rally international support for the intervention be a key player in the peace process itself. Afghans, since 2001. But any legal changes that threatened including perhaps the Taliban, will resent a strong Afghanistan’s gains in human rights would likely Pakistani role in the process, but no process will be limited and subtle, at least on paper. Since we take place without Pakistan. And unless Pakistan are not talking about a deal that would put the nudges the Taliban to the table by denying them Taliban in charge of the national government—in sanctuary, the insurgents can always, if the pres- the near term, at any rate—little danger exists that sure gets too high in Afghanistan, retreat into the constitution would be changed to ban outright Pakistan, where they can go to ground and wait girls’ education or women’s access to employment. out the United States for a few more years. To be sure, an accommodation with the Taliban Iran, Russia, and the Central Asian states for might accelerate the steady erosion of rights that their part will want guarantees that the Taliban and Afghan women have experienced in recent years. other groups will not harbor or export militancy. Indeed, the democratically elected parliament All the neighbors are likely to agree on one thing— passed a family law last year—signed by President that Afghanistan should be neutral, eschewing alli- Karzai—that sanctioned, among other things, ances with any of the regional powers. marital rape under certain circumstances. And if, after the ink dried on an agreement, the Taliban Can it happen here? imposed an unofficial ban on female employment Even if all the parties are willing to negotiate, in provinces that they controlled, no ISAF offen- and sufficient space exists to reach a viable agree- sive would likely be triggered, even if such a ban ment despite all the red lines, achieving resolution Afghanistan’s Rocky Path to Peace • 137 will still be enormously challenging. Between and among the various actors there is a fundamental lack of trust, and talks this year will occur amid an Make an intense military campaign. It is unclear whether either the Karzai government or the insurgent impact. leaders have the wherewithal to discipline their own constituencies. Strong leadership will be needed on all sides both to craft an agreement and to achieve buy-in for unpopular concessions. Public Diplomacy education at USC: The profusion of players, motivations, condi- Two-year Master of Public Diplomacy tions, and potential spoilers seems to cast serious doubt on prospects for a negotiated peace. But the One-year Professional Master of status quo cannot hold either. Obama has already Public Diplomacy signaled that the Afghan mission has the full sup- Mid-career Summer Institute in Public port of his government until July 2011. At that Diplomacy for professional diplomats point, if the trajectory of the war has not changed appreciably, US strategy will. Nobody knows what that means. It could mean abandonment of the counterinsurgency strategy, with increased focus U S C A N N E N B E R G S C H O O L given instead to the sort of counterterrorism strat- F O R C O M M U N I C A T I O N & egy reportedly advocated by Vice President Joseph J O U R N A L I S M Biden in 2009, with few troops on the ground and heavy reliance on drones and special forces to strike at terrorist targets. A new strategy could entail the replacement of the Karzai government. Perhaps the most important issue affecting chances for a negotiated outcome is whether, to the various players, such an outcome looks more • Home of the nation’s first master’s degree attractive than the alternatives. If the Taliban program in public diplomacy think they can run out the American clock with- • Combines the strengths of USC’s Annenberg out losing the war, they will do so. If the Karzai School for Communication and School of government and the Americans think they can International Relations beat the Taliban and stabilize Afghanistan without • USC Center on Public Diplomacy recognized a deal, they will try. If the Pakistanis think that a by the U.S. State Department as “the world’s weak, unstable Afghanistan that brings billions premier research facility” in the field into their coffers is better, they will undermine a • Strong institutional relationships with deal. So will the Iranians, if they decide the bet- embassies, government agencies and NGOs ter alternative is a weak and unstable Afghanistan around the world that pins down American forces. • Energetic and international student body But all of these factors might cut in more than one direction. Paradoxically, it is conceivable that • Innovative perspective informed by Los Angeles’ role as international media capital the prospect of a US surge and departure could and key position on Pacific Rim make a negotiated outcome more attractive to all parties—that is, negotiations might appear prefer- able to the risk of collapse and failure. Do the Afghan people get a say? After 30 years The graduate education you want. of war they are among the poorest and most trau- The graduate education you need. matized people on earth. But they are possessed of endurance and an indomitable spirit. If the indigenous, neutral leadership that supports a just annenberg.usc.edu peace could find its voice, that might spur a move- ment that presses the parties to reconcile. ■ The University of Southern California admits students of any race, color, and national or ethnic origin.