Central Bank Reform, Spatial Diversity and Monetary Policy in Germany, 1876-1890
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Central bank reform, spatial diversity and monetary policy in Germany, 1876-1890 Ousmène Jacques Mandeng A thesis submitted to the Department of Economic History of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree Doctor of Philosophy June 2019 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 45322 words excluding references, appendices and figure and table contents. 2 Abstract “One size does not fit all.” The aim of the thesis is to investigate conduct, impact and spatial dimension of monetary policy in Germany in 1876-90. Germany established one of the most successful monetary unions in the nineteenth century amid strong economic growth and stable bank note issuance. Yet, the role of monetary policy during its early years remains largely unexplored. This may lead to an incomplete understanding of the relationship between monetary policy and economic developments in the latter part of nineteenth century Germany. The 1875 bank act (Bankgesetz) in Germany, following introduction of a single currency and the gold standard, adopted a unique mixed central banking system with the German Imperial Bank (Reichsbank) at federal and the private banks of issue (Privatnotenbanken) at federal state level. The thesis analyses monetary policy with emphasis on the monetary policy framework, transmission mechanism and reaction function. The findings show that competition between the Reichsbank and Privatnotenbanken influenced monetary policy conduct and established the stability conditions of the system; that the Reichsbank’s monetary policy was effective but had an undue negative impact on output while the impact of the Privatnotenbanken was mixed highlighting some scope for monetary policy spatial differentiation; and that the Reichsbank maintained considerable monetary policy discretion and acted more in line with a commitment under reputational forces than the rules of the game of the classical gold standard. The thesis uses new monthly bank balance sheet, economic and financial data and employs advanced statistical estimation techniques based on structural vector autoregression models. The study relies extensively on narrative accounts based on archival parliamentary records and new Reichsbank reports. Nineteenth century Germany offers important lessons for the establishment of central banking in monetary unions and conduct of monetary policy under spatial diversity and reveals that decentralisation in a monetary union can be effective. JEL Classification: E52, E58, F45, N23 Keywords: Reichsbank, Privatnotenbanken, monetary policy, monetary unions, central bank organisation. 3 Acknowledgements The Department of Economic History at the LSE offered a truly enjoyable, inspiring and stimulating environment. I thank my supervisor Olivier Accominotti and advisor Oliver Volckart. The comments received from Albrecht Ritschl, Joan Roses and Max Schulze as part of the LSE Graduate Review Committee process were very helpful. Natasha Postel-Vinay provided most helpful comments on my final revisions. I’m grateful to Neil Cummins for his support towards the examination. I greatly appreciate the decision of my PhD examiners Claude Diebolt and Ulrich Volz for having passed the thesis with no need for corrections. Ben Veal and David Pavon-Prado offered many constructive observations. Mattia Bertazzini and Sandra de Pleijt kindly commented on earlier drafts of my thesis. I’m thankful to Barry Eichengreen and Harold James who kindly supported my application to do a PhD. I benefitted greatly from discussions on the presentations of the different papers held at the LSE Graduate Review Workshops, Centre for Financial History at Darwin College, Cambridge, Oxford Graduate Seminar in Economic and Social History, LSE Graduate Economic History Seminar, World Congress of Cliometrics, European Historical Association Annual Meeting and Economic History Society Annual Conference. I obtained valuable assistance with the collection of data by the staff of the Geheimes Staatsarchiv Preußischer Kulturbesitz, Berlin; Bundesarchiv Berlin- Lichterfelde, Berlin; Forschungslesesaal of the Jacob-und-Wilhelm Grimm- Zentrum of the Humboldt University, Berlin; Bücherei of the Reiss-Engelhorn- Museen, Mannheim; Hessisches Wirtschaftsarchiv, Darmstadt; Gruppe Alte Drucke Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen. The Landesarchiv Baden- Württemberg Hauptstaatsarchiv, Stuttgart helpfully undertook reproductions of the reports of the Reichsbankkuratorium. I was kindly allowed flexible access to the archives of the Otto von Bismarck Stiftung, Friedrichsruh. 4 Max Martens assisted with the digitalisations of the financial and economic data. Michael Blümel transcribed the old-German script into Latin script. I’m deeply indebted to my wife Marion for her relentless patience, encouragement and support and to my children Pia, Jil and Kim for having had to suffer a dad returning to school. 5 Contents Declaration .......................................................................................................... 2 Abstract ............................................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................. 4 Contents .............................................................................................................. 6 0. Introduction ............................................................................................ 10 0.1. Literature review ............................................................................ 15 0.2. Political and economic developments in Germany, 1815-90 ........ 20 0.3. Monetary developments, 1830-1890 .............................................. 25 0.4. International central banking developments, 1844-1913 ............ 32 0.5. 1875 bank act .................................................................................. 35 0.6. Sources............................................................................................. 48 0.7. Appendix .......................................................................................... 62 0.8. References ....................................................................................... 64 1. The Reichsbank, central banking competition and monetary stability in Germany, 1876-1890 ........................................................................................ 70 1.1. Introduction ..................................................................................... 70 1.2. Central banking competition ......................................................... 73 1.3. Central bank operations ................................................................. 77 1.4. Statistical analysis ......................................................................... 87 1.5. Conclusions ................................................................................... 100 1.6. References ..................................................................................... 103 2. Monetary policy transmission and regional monetary policy differentiation in Germany, 1876-1890 ......................................................... 107 2.1. Introduction ................................................................................... 107 2.2. Monetary policy transmission ...................................................... 109 2.3. Economic development and spatial diversity .............................. 113 2.4. Statistical analysis ....................................................................... 118 2.5. Conclusions ................................................................................... 133 2.6. References ..................................................................................... 136 6 3. The Reichsbank, commitment credibility and the rules of the game, 1876-1890 ........................................................................................................ 141 3.1. Introduction ................................................................................... 141 3.2. Rules of the game .......................................................................... 144 3.3. The Reichsbank’s monetary policy views .................................... 147 3.4. Statistical analysis ....................................................................... 152 3.5. Conclusions ................................................................................... 166 3.6. References ..................................................................................... 170 4. Conclusion ............................................................................................. 174 List of figures Figure 0-1. German Confederation 1815-1866 ............................................... 21 Figure 0-2. Output ............................................................................................ 23 Figure 0-3. Prices ............................................................................................. 23 Figure 0-4. Industrialisation ..........................................................................