South Wales Programme: Public Transport Overview

Authors: Dr Richard Fry, Dr Sarah Rodgers & Professor Ronan Lyons

Developed and Produced by: Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research@College of Medicine, Swansea University

Date: October 2013

Purpose and Summary of Document: Report describing the methodology, limitations, and descriptive analysis of the indicative bus and walking based travel times and availability within the South Wales Programme study area utilizing both the current provision and four options, and the changes in these travel times resultant from such options, as outlined in the proposal agreed by the South Wales Programme.

South Wales Programme: Public Transport Table of Contents

Background ...... 4

Study Area ...... 5

Methodology ...... 7

Data Sources ...... 7

Census Centroid Based Travel Time Change ...... 8

Bus Travel Accessibility ...... 10

Assumptions and Limitations ...... 11

Results ...... 12

Centroid Based Travel Time Change Maps ...... 12

Census Statistics ...... 13

Bus Travel Accessibility ...... 15

Summary ...... 16

APPENDIX A: Monday – Friday Bus Services...... 18

Appendix A1: Average Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph ...... 19

Appendix A2.1: Average Change in Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph: A & E / Paediatric services ...... 26

Appendix A2.2: Average Change in Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph: Neonatal / Obstetrics services ...... 31

Appendix A3: Average Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph ...... 36

Appendix A4.1: Average Change in Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph: A & E / Paediatric services ...... 43

Appendix A4.2: Average Change in Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph: Neonatal / Obstetrics services ...... 48

Appendix A5: Monday – Friday Bus Travel Accessibility ...... 53

APPENDIX B: Saturday Bus Services ...... 59

2 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Appendix B1: Average Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph...... 60

Appendix B2.1: Average Change in Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph: A & E / Paediatric services ...... 67

Appendix B2.2: Average Change in Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph: Neonatal / Obstetrics services...... 72

Appendix B3: Average Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph...... 77

Appendix B4.1: Average Change in Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph: A & E / Paediatric services ...... 84

Appendix B4.2: Average Change in Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph: Neonatal / Obstetrics services...... 89

Appendix B5: Saturday Bus Travel Accessibility ...... 94

APPENDIX C: Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus Services ...... 101

Appendix C1: Average Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph ...... 102

Appendix C2.1: Average Change in Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph: A & E / Paediatrics services ...... 109

Appendix C2.2: Average Change in Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph: Neonatal / Obstetrics services ...... 114

Appendix C3: Average Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph ...... 119

Appendix C4.1: Average Change in Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph: A & E / Paediatric services ...... 126

Appendix C4.2: Average Change in Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph: Neonatal / Obstetrics services ...... 131

Appendix C5: Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus Travel Accessibility ...... 136

3 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Background

In December 2011, the Together for Health document, produced by the Welsh Government said that the NHS in Wales is facing some tough challenges and should make sure all its services are “sustainable” and “comparable with the very best”.

The South Wales Programme is made up of the five South Wales health boards – Abertawe Bro Morgannwg, Aneurin Bevan, Cardiff and Vale, Cwm Taf, and Powys – working with the Welsh Ambulance Service to create safe and sustainable hospital services for people living in South Wales and South Powys. Initially, the outcomes from the South Wales Programme (SWP) will be a series of high level options that the SWP will use to engage with the general public over the optimal service configuration for specialist services.

As with any service re-design exercise, it is important to consider the implications on patients, visitors and staff. One of the most important considerations is whether the potential changes have an effect on people’s ability to access services by various modes of transport, e.g. car, public transport, etc.

The transport infrastructure in South Wales is going through a period of uncertainty with likely changes to the way Welsh Government funding is allocated to Local Authorities and Regional Transport Consortia.

The South Wales Programme has approached the Centre for Health Information, Research and evaluation (CHIRAL) at Swansea University to develop accessibility profiles to better understand the impacts of options outlined for public consultation by the SWP from a public transport perspective. This document outlines the methodological approach developed by CHIRAL and provides a descriptive overview of the resulting outputs from the GIS models as defined in the project proposal.

The options outlined by the SWP are as follows:

 Option 1: Three fixed hospitals (UHW, Morriston, SCCC) plus Prince Charles Hospital  Option 2: Three fixed hospitals (UHW, Morriston, SCCC) plus Royal Glamorgan Hospital  Option 3: Three fixed hospitals (UHW, Morriston, SCCC) plus Prince Charles and Princess of Wales hospitals  Option 4: Three fixed hospitals (UHW, Morriston, SCCC) plus Prince Charles and Royal Glamorgan hospitals

4 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Study Area

The study area covered by this report covers the majority of South Wales, constituting the unitary authorities of: Blaenau Gwent, Bridgend, Caerphilly, Cardiff, Merthyr Tydfil, Monmouthshire, Neath Port Talbot, Newport, Rhondda Cynon Taf, Swansea, The Vale of Glamorgan, Torfaen and South Powys.

Figure 1: Study Area

Within the study area there are a number of public transport routes linking the larger settlements together along the coast, as well as along the Heads of the Valleys Road, which extend into East, West, South and Mid Wales. In addition to this, there are many local transport routes which link together smaller communities within the study area.

Table 1 summarises the Monday to Friday bus transport network for each unitary authority (UA) within the study area. A route is defined as separate by its service number and provider code. The total number of routes within the study area (770) is less than the cumulative number of routes in each UA due to a portion of the routes extending across multiple UAs connecting them together. Figure 2 provides an overview of these bus routes fitted to their real road route, including the remaining sections which extend out of the study area.

5 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Table 1: Monday - Friday Bus Routes Summary Number of Routes Within Number of Stops Serviced UA UA Within UA Blaenau Gwent 29 480 Bridgend 49 857 Caerphilly 66 1,145 Cardiff 116 1,617 Merthyr Tydfil 41 509 Monmouthshire 59 842 Neath Port Talbot 88 1,166 Newport 76 735 Powys 114 909 Rhondda Cynon Taf 91 1,436 Swansea 111 1,754 The Vale of Glamorgan 33 720 Torfaen 55 675 TOTAL 770 11,936

Figure 2: Bus routes that originate or terminate within the study area

6 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Methodology

Data Sources

To generate the GIS models for the study area three core datasets were used:

1. OS MasterMap Integrated Transport Network (ITN) Layer; 2. National Public Transport Access Node (NaPTAN) database; and 3. Traveline National Dataset for Bus Timetables.

The transport access nodes, and bus timetables are only available in a proprietary format and therefore required pre-processing and transferring into a relational database for use in the GIS. Both of these data types were converted into a set of tables, detailing for each bus service originating or terminating within the study area: the route, the stops it calls at, and the average travel time accrued to transverse between these stops according to the bus’s timetable. This was repeated for the Monday – Friday bus services and weekend and bank holiday bus services.

The road network dataset used in this study was the Ordinance Survey’s Integrated Transport Network (ITN), a geographic database describing every road and pathway in the UK in terms of its location, shape, and type. This allows the calculation of walking travel times across these road and path features as a function of a fixed walking speed and the length of the road or path. Walking time was estimated using two walking speeds: 3.5mph was used as model speed for able bodied adults, and 2.0mph to simulate the expected walking speed of an elderly or less able adult.

In order to move between the walking and bus networks the bus stops utilized by each route were mapped on to the road network, to allow a traveller to walk to a bus stop, access the bus network in order to travel to another stop at the buses travel speed, and then resume walking from another stop on that buses route to either change to another bus service, or to a destination facility. The essential attribute of both of these networks is the travel cost value; this determines how far a person can travel across the network within a given time.

It should be noted that as bus transit was based on an average transit time, it does not infer to the availability of connections, however it does allow for the time in transit to be estimated. A universal estimated transfer wait time was used to improve the realism of travel times generated using this model. This was calculated by sampling 10% of possible bus journeys between a bus stop and a NHS facility within the study area, against the TransportDirect timetable aware journey planner and calculating the average transfer time.

7 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Census Centroid Based Travel Time Change

Utilizing the bus network model, and population weighted centroids derived from the 2011 census output areas (OAs) as route origins, the travel times to each hospital from each lower layer super output area (LSOA) was calculated for the entirety of the study area. OAs was used as multiple origins within each LSOA and their transport time averaged per LSOA, in order to reduce the effect of errors resultant from inaccessible centroid locations skewing travel times. Population weighted centroids were used weight the origin of a journey in favour of where the majority of people live within an OA, allowing for rapid and representative modelling of travel times at this geographical scale. The time to the nearest facility was calculated to allow comparison of current travel times and the potential change in travel time as a result of the options outlined by the SWP.

This analysis has been performed on each of the options outlined by the SWP as follows:

 The current provision (denoted in sub-appendices 1 and 3 as Option 0)  Option 1: Three fixed hospitals (UHW, Morriston, SCCC) plus Prince Charles Hospital  Option 2: Three fixed hospitals (UHW, Morriston, SCCC) plus Royal Glamorgan Hospital  Option 3: Three fixed hospitals (UHW, Morriston, SCCC) plus Prince Charles and Princess of Wales hospitals  Option 4: Three fixed hospitals (UHW, Morriston, SCCC) plus Prince Charles and Royal Glamorgan hospitals

These options and the current provision were compared in terms of the provision of: emergency medicine (A & E services), consultant led maternity services, neonatal care, and inpatient paediatrics services.

Only facilities which currently host a service were included when calculating current provision times. The services present at facilities within the study area are detailed in Table 2. The facilities listed for each of the options are modelled to have all 4 services present (see Tables 3-6).

8 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Table 2: Current service provision within SWP providers Available Provider A & E Paediatrics Neonatal Obstetrics Morriston Hospital ✔ ✔ - - Nevill Hall Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Prince Charles Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Princess Of Wales Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Royal Gwent Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Singleton Hospital - - ✔ ✔ The Royal Glamorgan Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ University Hospital Of Wales ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Table 3: Option 1 provision within SWP providers Available Provider A & E Paediatrics Neonatal Obstetrics Morriston Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Prince Charles Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Specialist and Critical Care Centre (SCCC) ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ University Hospital Of Wales ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Table 4: Option 2 provision within SWP providers Available Provider A & E Paediatrics Neonatal Obstetrics Morriston Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Specialist and Critical Care Centre (SCCC) ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ The Royal Glamorgan Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ University Hospital Of Wales ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

9 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Table 5: Option 3 provision within SWP providers Available Provider A & E Paediatrics Neonatal Obstetrics Morriston Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Prince Charles Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Princess of Wales Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Specialist and Critical Care Centre (SCCC) ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ University Hospital Of Wales ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Table 6: Option 4 provision within SWP providers Provider A & E Paediatrics Neonatal Obstetrics Morriston Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Prince Charles Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Specialist and Critical Care Centre (SCCC) ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ The Royal Glamorgan Hospital ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ University Hospital Of Wales ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Bus Travel Accessibility

The two step floating catchment (2SFCA) technique was originally developed to measure access to health care facilities taking into account service availability (i.e. number of doctors or beds available at a given location per head of population) as well as travel time to the facility. We adapted this method to measure access to public transport by taking into account service availability (i.e. the number of bus services stopping at given stop) by head of population for the SWP area. The method involves the following steps:

Step 1. Using the population weighted centroids and service availability (the number of buses or trains stopping at a stop) within a specified distance of the population demand point (500m), create a service demand ratio for each public transport stop within the study area. Step 2. For each population demand point calculate bus stops located within the specified distances (500m) and sum the service demand ratio to realise the final 2SFCA score.

In addition to the base methodology, a distance decay calculation has also been included. This weights the 2SFCA scores so that bus or train stops that are closer to the population weighted centroid are deemed more appealing than those which are further away. Therefore, access to a hospital via a bus stop that requires a

10 South Wales Programme: Public Transport long walking distance will be given a lower access score, signifying it is less accessible. In comparison a stop a short walk from a population weighted centroid (e.g. less than 5 minutes) will be more appealing and therefore given a higher access score.

The benefits of this method are multiple. As well as modelling catchment areas for transport nodes, it also models choice of service available at population centre and transport availability by calculating the number of services stopping at each stop on a Monday to Friday, Weekends and Bank Holidays. This results in population centres with a higher frequency service being scored higher than those population centres which may have more stops closer, but an infrequent service. 250m, 500m and 750m were used in the analysis as it represents a range of distances for which people would be prepared/able to walk to access the bus network.

Assumptions and Limitations

In order to generate this report a number of assumptions have been made when developing the GIS models, for practical reasons involving the available temporal and computational resources. As such these outputs from the GIS model should be considered indicative as opposed to accurate outputs, particularly when analysing travel times. The assumptions in this work are as follows:

 Bus travel times have been calculated using average travel times derived from bus timetabled schedules. Consequentially the time of day that a journey is made is not catered for, along with extended transfer wait times between bus routes. This is particularly evident in the Saturday travel maps compared to the Monday – Friday maps due to the similarity in bus service availability, however the travel times may in fact be more protracted than expected due to larger wait times between services which we have not been able to account for.  It is difficult to quantify aspects of human behaviour – for example the variability in time a person is prepared to leave when transferring between bus services will affect how long they perceive a journey will take.  The use of two values for the average walking speed of adults at 3.5mph and 2.0mph, although allowing for a larger cross section of people to be considered, does not factor in speed variance due to topography.

11 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Results

The outputs of this report are delivered as a set of maps, and accompanying population statistics derived from the 2011 census data released by the Office for National Statistics. The maps are split into three categories: 1) public transport travel times for each option, 2) changes in public transport travel times from the current provision for each option, 3) bus travel accessibility. Each of these map types is reported for Monday – Friday bus services, weekend and bank holiday bus services. The travel times for each option and the change in these times from the current provision are included for both 3.5 and 2.0mph walking speeds. All of the map sets detailed are included as appendices (detailed in Table 7) and are also available as separate high resolution images.

Table 7: Map locations within this document Map Category Location 1) Public transport travel times for each option Appendix A1, B1, C1 (3.5mph), Appendix A3, B3 (2.0mph) 2) Changes in public transport travel times from the Appendix A2, B2 (3.5mph), Appendix A4, B4 current provision for each option (2.0mph) 3) Bus travel accessibility Appendix A5, B5

Centroid Based Travel Time Change Maps

The public transport travel time maps for each option each detail the travel times to a selection of facilities. The selection of facilities available as destinations is based on the SWP option being analysed and whether the facility has the service present. Each map illustrates shaded LSOA regions, which represent the average of the travel times between the OA centroids, to the nearest NHS facility where the specified service is available. The average travel time has been averaged per LSOA and then been classified into the following bands: 0-30 minutes, 31-60 minutes, 61-90 minutes, 91-120 minutes, and greater than 120 minutes.

For example the first map in Appendix A1.1 (located on page 18 of this document), represents the estimated public transport travel times to currently available A & E or paediatric services, when modelled with a walking speed of 3.5mph. The LSOAs are shaded using the same colour scheme throughout this map type, from white for areas with the shortest access times (0 – 30 minutes), to pink for areas with longer (90 – 120 minutes), and dark red for those over 2 hours (>120 minutes). Due to the identical boundaries of the LSOAs used across all map types in this report, comparison between the differences in travel times can be easily made.

12 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Certain services are identically distributed in terms of the facility they are available from within an option. As a result in these cases they were combined, to remove the duplicate information. For the current provision A & E and paediatric services, and neonatal and obstetrics services were combined; as all four of the services being analysed were always present at each of the facilities identified within each option, all four of the services were represented in combined outputs for the options.

Changes in public transport travel times from the current provision for each option maps, are also presented to give a clearer comparison between the current provision and the option under consideration. This results in either: reduced access times due to the presence of a new closest facility (in the case of the new SCCC), increased travel times where the closest facility has changed to one which is less accessible, or zero change in travel times due to the facility identified as closest in the current provision remaining in the option. As these maps are a comparison between the travel times of the current provision and the various options they take on a similar format, however as they display the change in travel time, they are displayed using different coloured classifications. Instead they utilize shades of green for reductions in travel time, to white for no change, and then into darkening shades of red through pink for increasing travel time classes. These changes are classed in 15 minute bands.

Census Statistics

Using the 2011 small area census statistics it is possible to estimate the number of people within each LSOA based travel time class. These values are based on the complete population of the LSOA, and so they should also only be considered indicative. The population figures are summarised in for Monday – Friday travel in Table 8, Saturday travel in Table 9, and Sunday and Bank Holiday travel in Table 10.

13 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Table 8: Monday – Friday travel per option and service type travel time population estimates Walking Speed = 2.0mph Travel Time (minutes) Service Type Option 0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 A & E / Paediatrics Current provision 332,051 1,134,079 404,098 31,010 Neonatal / Obstetrics Current provision 377,815 1,085,004 407,452 29,543 1 202,872 890,834 644,608 145,501 2 201,162 900,522 594,764 165,271 All 3 248,979 1,068,899 507,533 64,189 4 224,466 985,820 581,468 96,298

Walking Speed = 3.5mph Travel Time (minutes) Service Type Option 0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 A & E / Paediatrics Current provision 492,410 1,089,847 303,557 24,814 Neonatal / Obstetrics Current provision 546,339 1,036,249 303,897 24,143 1 289,347 946,389 550,999 104,515 2 298,713 948,624 512,608 111,616 All 3 360,821 1,094,236 398,374 49,207 4 331,352 1,036,902 459,913 69,302

Table 9: Saturday travel per option and service type travel time population estimates Walking Speed = 2.0mph Travel Time (minutes) Service Type Option 0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 A & E / Paediatrics Current provision 332,051 1,134,079 404,098 31,010 Neonatal / Obstetrics Current provision 377,815 1,085,004 407,452 29,543 1 202,872 890,834 644,608 145,501 2 201,162 900,522 594,764 165,271 All 3 248,979 1,068,899 507,533 64,189 4 224,466 985,820 581,468 96,298

14 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Table 10: Sunday and Bank Holiday travel per option and service type travel time population estimates Walking Speed = 2.0mph Travel Time (minutes) Service Type Option 0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 A & E / Paediatrics Current provision 249,476 808,228 532,027 185,135 Neonatal / Obstetrics Current provision 377,815 1,085,004 407,452 29,543 1 141,052 522,506 703,898 297,001 2 130,384 536,788 658,099 324,055 All 3 176,316 627,390 660,949 220,128 4 152,302 588,118 655,199 280,395

Walking Speed = 3.5mph Travel Time (minutes) Service Type Option 0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 A & E / Paediatrics Current provision 411,234 798,813 496,388 136,970 Neonatal / Obstetrics Current provision 546,339 1,036,249 303,897 24,143 1 218,922 681,925 633,789 229,039 2 207,621 692,852 611,360 216,790 All 3 272,906 786,007 555,177 165,953 4 242,430 738,561 587,219 198,121

Bus Travel Accessibility

The two step floating catchment analysis results (found in Appendix A5, B5 and C5) reflect the higher public transport availability in the more urbanised areas (Cardiff, Swansea, Bridgend, Newport and Cwmbran) of the study area where bus frequency is higher and access to bus routes is closer. LSOA’s within the study area where the topography of the land restricts the public transport routes to corridors also have better access scores as the public transport and population centres coincide. Rural areas where the population centres and transport network is more dispersed generally have poorer access to the public transport network, particularly Powys, Monmouthshire, parts of the Vale of Glamorgan and South Gower. There is also a marked difference in accessibility depending on which days a journey is made. Sundays and Bank Holidays (which operate on the same timetable) have a greatly reduced service thus resulting in poor accessibility scores for many areas. The small reduction in services available on Saturday also results in poorer accessibility scores but not to the same extent as a Sunday/Bank Holiday service. Again there us a rural- urban divide with rural areas more poorly serviced.

15 South Wales Programme: Public Transport Summary

This report aims to provide a general overview of the accessibility of different service options to the public when travelling via public transport within the SWP study area. The transport models indicate that generally most areas with dense population can reach an NHS A&E, paediatric, neonatal, or obstetrics service containing facility within 60 minutes by public transport and on foot. Closest facility accessibility times radiated out from facilities in decreasing steps, thus in options where a facility was removed from an area the transport time increased most dramatically, with the exception of areas near the Royal Gwent hospital which in all options transport times were either only slightly increased, or reduced due to the introduction of the SCCC.

Due to the stronger inter-city transport links which connect east-west, accessibility is most markedly affected outside of major towns and particularly in proximity to some valley based communities, which have relatively long travel times due to the lower availability of direct transport links from these regions to facilities. The longest transport times appear at the extreme east and west of the study area, which are furthest away from the facilities identified within this report.

The three different transport models for Monday – Friday, Saturday, and Sunday / Bank Holiday public transport yielded similar overall areas of impact, however the magnitude of increase in travel time was most marked in Sunday / Bank Holiday transport due to the reduced availability of travel routes.

The overall population impacts resultant from the options laid out by the SWP, are detailed below (Figure 3 and Figure 4). These population figures are however the total population within the regions defined as being within a travel time class, and make no weighting towards the active usage of public transport within these areas.

16 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Figure 3: Monday – Friday / Saturday overall population estimates within public transport travel time classes in the SWP study area

Figure 4 Sunday / Bank Holiday overall population estimates within public transport travel time classes in the SWP study area

It should also be noted that these models, although firmly based around scheduled timetables, can only provide an indicative overview of public transport provision. They cannot account for an individuals or group of individuals travel habits, and in particular how people perceive public transport provision. This should be considered when interpreting the model outputs.

17 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

APPENDIX A:

Monday – Friday Bus Services

18 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix A1: Average Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph

The following figures detail the LSOA regions which fall into each public transport travel time band, for each of the facility options as outlined by the South Wales Programme. ‘Option 0’ denotes the current provision.

These maps display the predicted average travel time on Monday – Friday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a normal walking speed of 3.5mph.

Each map is shaded in 30 minute travel time classifications, increasing from a near white colour for LSOA regions which are accessible to a facility by public transport and on foot within 0 – 30 minutes, through shades of pink increasing in darkness for 30 – 60 minutes, 60 – 90 minutes, and 90 – 120 minutes. Beyond this, regions which would take greater than 120 minutes are shaded with dark red.

19 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 492,410 1,089,847 303,557 24,814

20 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 546,339 1,036,249 303,897 24,143

21 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 289,347 946,389 550,999 104,515

22 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 298,713 948,624 512,608 111,616

23 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 360,821 1,094,236 398,374 49,207

24 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 331,352 1,036,902 459,913 69,302

25 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix A2.1: Average Change in Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph:

A & E / Paediatric services

This subsection contains figures detailing the change in travel time per LSOA region broken down into bands of increase, decrease and no change in travel time, for each of the A & E / Paediatric services facility options, as outlined by the South Wales Programme.

These maps display the predicted change in average travel time on Monday – Friday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a normal walking speed of 3.5mph. The change value is the travel time of the option subtracted from the current provision, consequentially a positive value means an increase in travel time is expected, and a negative value results in a reduction in travel time being expected.

Each map is shaded in 15 minute travel time classifications. No change in travel time is shaded as a very light pink. Increases in travel time are shaded in darkening shades of pink, where a large increase is a dark pink. Reductions in travel time are shaded in darkening shades of green, where the lightest green infers a small reduction in travel time, and larger reductions in travel time are indicated by a darker green.

26 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

27 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

28 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

29 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

30 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix A2.2: Average Change in Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph:

Neonatal / Obstetrics services

This subsection contains figures detailing the change in travel time per LSOA region broken down into bands of increase, decrease and no change in travel time, for each of the Neonatal / Obstetrics service facility options, as outlined by the South Wales Programme.

31 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

32 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

33 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

34 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

35 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix A3: Average Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph

These maps display the predicted average travel time on Monday – Friday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a slower than average walking speed of 2.0 mph.

36 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 332,051 1,134,079 404,098 31,010

37 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 377,815 1,085,004 407,452 29,543

38 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 202,872 890,834 644,608 145,501

39 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 201,162 900,522 594,764 165,271

40 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 248,979 1,068,899 507,533 64,189

41 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 224,466 985,820 581,468 96,298

42 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix A4.1: Average Change in Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph:

A & E / Paediatric services

This subsection contains figures detailing the change in travel time per LSOA region broken down into bands of increase, decrease and no change in travel time, for each of the A & E / Paediatric service options, as outlined by the South Wales Programme.

These maps display the predicted change in average travel time on Monday – Friday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a slower than average walking speed of 2.0 mph. The change value is the travel time of the option subtracted from the current provision, consequentially a positive value means an increase in travel time is expected, and a negative value results in a reduction in travel time being expected.

43 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

44 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

45 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

46 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

47 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix A4.2: Average Change in Monday – Friday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph:

Neonatal / Obstetrics services

48 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

49 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

50 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

51 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

52 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix A5: Monday – Friday Bus Travel Accessibility

This section contains figures which suggest the accessibility an area has to public transport, based on the density of bus stops within a fixed range of the area’s population weighted centroid weighted by their distance from the centroid using two step floating catchment (2SFCA) technique.

Each map is shaded based on an accessibility index score. High public transport accessibility is shaded in a near white colour, which increases towards a dark red as accessibility to public transport reduces.

53 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

54 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

55 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

56 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

57 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

58 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

APPENDIX B: Saturday Bus Services

59 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix B1: Average Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph

These maps display the predicted average travel time on Saturday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a normal walking speed of 3.5mph.

60 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 492,410 1,089,847 303,557 24,814

61 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 546,339 1,036,249 303,897 24,143

62 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 289,347 946,389 550,999 104,515

63 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 298,713 948,624 512,608 111,616

64 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 360,821 1,094,236 398,374 49,207

65 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 331,352 1,036,902 459,913 69,302

66 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix B2.1: Average Change in Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph:

A & E / Paediatric services

These maps display the predicted change in average travel time on Saturday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a normal walking speed of 3.5mph. The change value is the travel time of the option subtracted from the current provision, consequentially a positive value means an increase in travel time is expected, and a negative value results in a reduction in travel time being expected.

67 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

68 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

69 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

70 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

71 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix B2.2: Average Change in Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph:

Neonatal / Obstetrics services

72 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

73 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

74 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

75 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

76 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix B3: Average Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph

These maps display the predicted average travel time on Saturday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a slow walking speed of 2.0 mph.

77 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 492,410 1,089,847 303,557 24,814

78 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 546,339 1,036,249 303,897 24,143

79 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 289,347 946,389 550,999 104,515

80 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 298,713 948,624 512,608 111,616

81 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 360,821 1,094,236 398,374 49,207

82 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 331,352 1,036,902 459,913 69,302

83 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix B4.1: Average Change in Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph:

A & E / Paediatric services

This subsection contains figures detailing the change in travel time per LSOA region broken down into bands of increase, decrease and no change in travel time, for each of the A & E / Paediatric service options, as outlined by the South Wales Programme.

These maps display the predicted change in average travel time on Saturday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a slower than average walking speed of 2.0 mph. The change value is the travel time of the option subtracted from the current provision, consequentially a positive value means an increase in travel time is expected, and a negative value results in a reduction in travel time being expected.

84 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

85 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

86 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

87 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

88 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix B4.2: Average Change in Saturday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph:

Neonatal / Obstetrics services

89 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

90 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

91 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

92 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

93 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix B5: Saturday Bus Travel Accessibility

94 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

95 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

96 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

97 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

98 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

99 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

100 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

APPENDIX C: Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus Services

101 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix C1: Average Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 3.5mph

These maps display the predicted average travel time on Sunday and Bank Holiday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a normal walking speed of 3.5mph.

102 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 411,234 798,813 496,388 136,970

103 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 546,339 1,036,249 303,897 24,143

104 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 218,922 681,925 633,789 229,039

105 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 207,621 692,852 611,360 216,790

106 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 272,906 786,007 555,177 165,953

107 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 242,430 738,561 587,219 198,121

108 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix C2.1: Average Change in Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph:

A & E / Paediatrics services

These maps display the predicted change in average travel time on Sunday and Bank Holiday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a normal walking speed of 3.5mph. The change value is the travel time of the option subtracted from the current provision, consequentially a positive value means an increase in travel time is expected, and a negative value results in a reduction in travel time being expected.

109 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

110 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

111 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

112 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

113 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix C2.2: Average Change in Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph:

Neonatal / Obstetrics services

114 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

115 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

116 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

117 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

118 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix C3: Average Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph

These maps display the predicted average travel time on Sunday and Bank Holiday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a slow walking speed of 2.0 mph.

119 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 249,476 808,228 532,027 185,135

120 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 377,815 1,085,004 407,452 29,543

121 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 141,052 522,506 703,898 297,001

122 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 130,384 536,788 658,099 324,055

123 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 176,316 627,390 660,949 220,128

124 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Travel Time (minutes)

0 - 30 31 - 60 61 - 90 91 - 120 Estimated population 152,302 588,118 655,199 280,395

125 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix C4.1: Average Change in Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph:

A & E / Paediatric services

This subsection contains figures detailing the change in travel time per LSOA region broken down into bands of increase, decrease and no change in travel time, for each of the A & E / Paediatric service options, as outlined by the South Wales Programme.

These maps display the predicted change in average travel time on Sunday and Bank Holiday bus travel services and on foot, when considering a slower than average walking speed of 2.0 mph. The change value is the travel time of the option subtracted from the current provision, consequentially a positive value means an increase in travel time is expected, and a negative value results in a reduction in travel time being expected.

126 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

127 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

128 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

129 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

130 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix C4.2: Average Change in Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus and Walking Travel Times from the Current Provision per LSOA Assuming a Walking Speed of 2.0mph:

Neonatal / Obstetrics services

131 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

132 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

133 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

134 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

135 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

Appendix C5: Sunday and Bank Holiday Bus Travel Accessibility

136 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

137 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

138 South Wales Programme: Public Transport

139