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A Cardiff Capital Region Metro: Impact Study: Metro Spatial Map

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A Cardiff Capital Region Metro: Impact Study: Metro Spatial Map Report to the Minister for Economy, Science and Transport Merthyr Ebbw Hirwaun Tydfil Rhymney Tredegar Vale Brynmawr Abergavenny Aberdare Treherbert Abertillery Pontypool Bargoed Blackwood Newbridge Abercynon Cwmbran Pontypridd Ystrad Mynach Cross Keys Porth Maesteg Talbot Green Taffs Well Caerphilly Caerleon Pontyclun Cardiff Gate North West Heath Bridgend Cardiff Severn Queen Tunnel Ely Mill Street Newport Junction Porthcawl St Llanwern Chepstow Mellons Culverhouse Cross Pill Cardiff Cardiff Bay Bristol Airport Sports Village Cardiff Central Barry Penarth Porth Teigr A Cardiff Capital Region Metro: Impact Study: Metro Spatial Map October 2013 Metro Spatial Map FINAL Report | September 2013 Project No: CS/060195 Doc Ref: CS/060195 Rev: Client: Welsh Government Issue Date: September 2013 Metro Spatial Map FINAL Report Name Signature Date Author Steph Malson 30/09/2013 Checker David McCallum 30/09/2013 Approver David McCallum 30/09/2013 Issue Record Rev Date Description/Comments Author/Prepared by: Approved for Issue by: “The report shall be for the private and confidential use of the clients for whom the report is undertaken and should not be reproduced in whole or in part or relied upon by third parties for any use whatsoever without the express written authority of the Consultant’ Spatial Model Report: FINAL Report September 2013 CONTENTS Page 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Context 1.2 Report Purpose and Structure 2. Methodology 3 2.1 Development of the Base Model 2.2 Analysis using the Base Model 2.3 Gap Analysis 2.4 ‘Do Something’ Model Development 3. Model Outputs and Results 7 3.1 Strategic Healthcare 3.2 Tertiary Education 3.3 Existing Employment 3.4 Proposed Development 3.5 Lower Super Output Areas 3.6 Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 4. Conclusions 28 APPENDICIES Appendix A Spatial Model Metro Interventions Spatial Model Report: FINAL Report September 2013 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It is the view of the Metro Consortium that the production of an overall strategic regional economic plan that presents a clear vision integrating economic development, regeneration and transport is essential. In developing this plan, work was required to identify and quantify the potential wider economic benefits of a Metro via a Metro Regional Economic Impact Study. This study included the assessment of strategic development and regeneration opportunities and the role / impact of other government interventions. To achieve key project objectives, tasks were divided between the Metro Consortia, with Capita Symonds having responsibility for delivering one of the main work streams in recommendation of metro interventions. This work task has been achieved through the identification and formation of potential interventions, their appraisal and packaging to provide recommended interventions. This sits alongside the other key tasks that Capita Symonds has undertaken in this project which included the production of a multimodal corridor study and the production of a spatial model to provide many of the data inputs which have been used in the appraisal of the Metro Interventions. This report forms part of the Metro Regional Economic Impact Study, providing an outline of the methodology used to create a thematic model of the existing situation and compare it with a ‘Do Something’ scenario. This model was used to collect data on each of the Metro Interventions which was fed into their comparative assessment. This is covered in detail in the Interventions Report. The output of the model allows an assessment of the likely changes in accessibility of strategic healthcare and tertiary education facilities; existing employment and potential development sites; and each of the Lower Super Output Areas in South East Wales, as a result of the Metro Interventions. Appendix A contains a thematic map showing the approximate location of the proposed Metro Intervention infrastructure in relation to the existing network and each of the sites and areas assessed as part of this process. Spatial Model Report: FINAL Report September 2013 INTENTIONALLY BLANK Spatial Model Report: FINAL Report September 2013 1. Introduction 1.1 Context 1.1.1 South East Wales currently faces some serious economic challenges with a wide range of economic prosperity levels existing across the region. 1.1.2 It has been identified by the Metro Consortium (a group of stakeholders who have come together with the common aim of promoting the Metro concept as a regional regeneration project consisting of Capita Symonds, Cardiff Business Partnership, M&G Barry Consulting, Powell Dobson Urbanists, Institute of Welsh Affairs, Jones Lang LaSalle, British Gas, Admiral, Cardiff Business School, Capita Architects, Curzon Real Estate, Paramount Office Interiors, Wardell Armstrong and J.R. Smart) that the area needs a coherent vision to 2030 that fully integrates economic development and transport. A key part to developing and delivering this vision is a Cardiff City Region Metro and more widely interventions to improve connectivity within the region. 1.1.3 A number of studies have been produced in recent years which have looked at the Metro concept, the most recent of these being the South East Wales Integrated Task Force Report to the Minister for Economy, Science and Transport, in March 2013. This report produced a two phase list of potential interventions, with Phase 1 representing a list of accelerated schemes identified within the National Transport Plan and Regional Transport Plan and Phase 2, a list of longer term interventions for the area. 1.1.4 The Metro Consortium have also recently published their report ‘A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform/ regenerate / connect’, which sets out a vision for a Cardiff City Region Metro focussed on economic development and regeneration within the context of a strategic plan for the region to 2030. 1.1.5 It is the view of the Metro Consortium that the production of an overall strategic regional economic plan that presents a clear vision integrating economic development, regeneration and transport is essential. In developing this plan, work was required to identify and quantify the potential wider economic benefits of a Metro via a Metro Regional Economic Impact Study. This study included the assessment of strategic development and regeneration opportunities and the role / impact of other government interventions. 1.1.6 The overall objectives of this project were: • To provide a more comprehensive spatial and regional economic context for Metro development; • To inform a strategic region wide economic plan; • To provide guidelines / context for the regions local authorities as regards Metro development; • To provide input to the Wales and Borders franchise specification and Network Rail route planning; • To assess a range of transit modes (from cascaded EMU’s through to tram-train, light rail and BRT) that could be utilised; • To provide details and data for further and more detailed Metro planning (network, mode, stations, engineering feasibility etc); 1 Spatial Model Report: FINAL Report September 2013 • To selectively assess (high level) engineering feasibility of some interventions; and • To identify a number of quick wins for implementation at the same time as or before Valleys Line Electrification (VLE). 1.1.7 To achieve these project objectives, tasks for the project were divided between the Metro Consortia, with Capita Symonds having responsibility for delivering one of the main work streams in recommendation of metro interventions. This work task has been achieved through the identification and formation of potential interventions, their appraisal and packaging to provide recommended interventions. This sits alongside the other key tasks that Capita Symonds has undertaken in this project which included the production of a multimodal corridor study and the production of a spatial model to provide many of the data inputs which have been used in the appraisal of the Metro interventions. 1.1.8 This report feeds into the main Metro Regional Economic Impact Study and should be read alongside this study with the following constitute reports: • Metro Modal Study, September 2013 - Capita Symonds; • Metro Spatial Model Report, September 2013 – Capita Symonds. 1.2 Report Purpose and Structure 1.2.1 The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of the outputs of the Spatial Model and the methodology used to develop the model. The report is structured as follows: Chapter 2 provides a detailed overview of the methodology used to develop the model including the base data used to populate the model and the do something data; Chapter 3 describes the outputs of the model with thematic mapping and Traffic Light (Red Amber Green) assessments; Chapter 4 provides a conclusion. 2 Spatial Model Report: FINAL Report September 2013 2. Methodology 2.1 Development of the Base Model 2.1.1 The Metro Spatial base model was based on an ordnance survey background which was overlaid with the Lower Super Output Area boundaries (LSOAs) and their corresponding population centre points, using GIS software (MapInfo). 2.1.2 Layers containing the existing rail network in South East Wales were manually plotted using the OS background as a guide. 2.1.3 A list of major existing employment sites (including retail, commercial and industrial) and proposed development sites (including retail, commercial, industrial, enterprise zones and residential), identified in the local authorities UDP/LDPs, provided by JLL, were also manually plotted using a series of polygons. 2.1.4 Locations for strategic healthcare
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