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Home , Aberdeen, Cardiff Airport, Cardiff City Centre, Glamorgan, Inverness, South Wales

State of the Region Part 1: Connected Contents Foreword

Introduction 03 The Industrial and Economic Plan (2019) office in , a Metro ‘strategic Transportation & Infrastructure 04 for Region stated that hub’, is an early example of how the Metro improving connectivity is critical in order can help re-balance the regional economy. Housing 12 to move the needle and improve the economic prosperity of our region. We The ten local authorities have agreed to welcome the baseline research set out in prepare a joint Strategic Development this report, which has been undertaken by Plan which will provide a ‘larger than local’ . approach to regional thinking. The new SDP will address housing, employment, To drive economic growth, it is essential waste and regional transport so that the that we improve our Region’s connectivity benefits of growth can be maximised. both internally and externally to key UK and international centres. This will Cardiff Capital Region will work closely improve access to employment for all of with the UK and Welsh Governments the communities within south-east , to further develop, enhance and deliver whilst allowing the seamless and efficient improvements in connectivity – from flow of people and goods. national schemes to active travel. Building infrastructure is, by its nature difficult Improved digital connectivity, both fixed and complex however its delivery is key and mobile, will be mapped out in a to boosting competitiveness, accessing Digital Connectivity Plan. The Region markets and alleviating pinch points. is already a tech hub with a strong track record in data science and cyber- The Joint Cabinet and Economic Growth security, and this illustrates the role that Partnership are both determined to infrastructure plays in enabling innovation respond to this challenge in order that and encouraging investment. we may create an improved business environment and build upon our The City Deal has, at its core, the South region’s strong reputation for trade, Wales Metro rail upgrade. Some £738 innovation and quality of life. million of the City Deal funding is ring- fenced to help deliver the Valleys Lines Electrification (VLE) programme and wider Metro. The Metro investment will greatly increase passenger capacity. However, it will also create a backbone for shaping future development in a transit- orientated and sustainable way, as set out by ’s emerging National Development Framework. The decision by to locate its head

Chris Sutton Economic Growth Partnership Introduction

In its Industrial and Economic Plan, The report is split into three parts. Part the Cardiff Capital Region (CCR) made one brings together data on the CCR’s a commitment to invest in analytical connectivity, notably highlighting key capability to provide robust and reliable features of the region’s transport and data on a series of economic, social housing infrastructure. Travel- to- and environmental indicators to better work patterns highlight the strong understand the performance of the interdependencies that exist between the region. This capability is vital to ensure region’s communities which reinforces well informed decisions are taken in the importance of the South Wales the delivery of the plan and to measure Metro, as does the continued evidence progress towards the CCR’s twin of the region’s emphasis upon the car objectives of improving the region’s for commuting. The region’s housing prosperity and tackling inequalities. infrastructure is critically linked to commuting patterns across the region, This report represents a first key step and the analysis here highlights the towards understanding the current sharp divides which characterize the state of the region. Produced with region’s housing market and presents a colleagues here at Cardiff University, it key indicator of the regional challenge in brings together a range of economic, terms of inequality. social and environmental indicators on the region and groups them under the There is more analysis of the state of the key strategic objectives of connectivity, region to come in parts two and three of competitiveness, and resilience. We the report and clearly more work to be have brought together data from a done in using this to further strengthen range of different sources so that it the analytical capability for decision- can be accessed in one place, and we makers in the region. We look forward to have presented the data in a variety of working in partnership with the CCR and different ways in an effort to develop a supporting this endeavour. clear and insightful picture of the region’s prosperity and quality of life. Critically, we have also sought to illuminate the differences that exist between the region’s constituent communities, as well as to identify longer-term patterns and trends in the region’s development. This provides a basis for benchmarking and monitoring the impact of the CCR’s investments and serves as a valuable independent health check for all key decision-makers and stakeholders in the region.

Professor Gill Bristow Cardiff University 3 2 1 Footnotes Infrastructure Transportation & 01. 4 — Cardiff Capital Region State of the Region Part 1: Connected ONS: Census ofpopulation, 2011 http://www.commute-flow.net 2011 data:OpenGovernment License - usingCensus ofpopulation Manchester Urban Institute, University of Commute-flowtypology developed by billion vehicle kilometres, 2014 and2017 Welsh Government: Volume oftraffic per Dominant commuting types to Cardiff commutingcentreDominant based(2011) types onwww.commute-flow.net city classification and social security fields. public administration, defence, taxation work inconsumer aswell services, as bus, train, bike andonfoot, those who average propensity to travel to work by composed ofpersons withahigherthan . Whilediverse, itispredominately stretches across South Wales andto The commuter beltto number ofurbancentres. areas region, withinthecity focused on a There are several identifiable commuting from 1.861Newport to 1.949. with thelargest increase occurring in most authorities between2014 and2017, kilometres have moderately increased in Traffic volumes perbillion vehicle Volume perbillion oftraffic vehiclekilometres (2014 & 2017) 2.25 0.75

Blaenau Gwent 1.5 0 3 2014

Bridgend 2017

Caerphilly

Cardiff

Monmouthshire

Rhondda CynonNewport Taf 2 1 High Flyers Traders, Movers & Makers The Nurturers Friendly Faces Supporting Society Sustainable Sorts Consumer Services Techs Types andthe City Vale of

Torfaen Commuting flows (net origin-destination) (2011)3

Number of Commuters: 10 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 200 201 - 500 501 - 4998 7 6 5 4 Footnotes Infrastructure Transportation & 01. 6 — Cardiff Capital Region State of the Region Part 1: Connected copyright anddatabase right2012 & contain data©Crown Crown copyright anddatabase right2012 All mapscontain National Statistics data© Technology, OpenGovernment Licence,. Welsh Government: Geographyand 2014/15 and2017/18 Welsh Government: Rail Station Usage, and 2017/18 Welsh Government: , 2014/15 ONS: Census ofpopulation, 2011 Cynon Taf Method oftravel to to work, 74 aged 16 allusual residents (2011) as 15ofthetop 20. are intheCardiff Capital Region, as well The top three busiest stationsinWales choosing to drive to work in2011. 70% ofresidentsinhalftheauthorities regionin thecity was thecar withover to workdominant modeoftransport Despite theincreases inrailtravel, the to a18.9% increase inNewport. has beena -12.7% decline. Thiscompares except Tydfil for inMerthyr where there all authorities from 2014/15 and2017/18 Rail passenger journeys have increased in and citiesoftheCardiff Capital Region. localities are emerging throughout thetowns Active Travel routes anddesignated Vale ofGlamorgan Taxi Bus, minibus orcoach Train Work mainly atorfrom home Blaenau Gwent Merthyr TydfilMerthyr Newport Torfaen Cardiff 0% Bicycle Passenger inacar orvan Driving acar orvan Motorcycle, scooter ormoped 25% 4 50% Other methodoftravelOther to work On foot 75% 100% 20 busiest stations in Wales by station entries/exits (2014-2015 & 2017-2018)5 Percentage change in rail passenger journeys (2014/15-2017/18)6

2014-15 2017-18 **Cardiff Capital Region Station 14m +15.6% +2.6% +5.8% +12.3% -12.7%

Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Caerphilly Cardi Merthyr Tyd l

10.5m +12.5% +18.9% +5.1% +11.0% +18.9%

Monmouthshire Newport Rhondda Torfaen Vale of Cynon Taf Glamorgan

Active Travel routes and designated localities7 7m

3.5m

0

Rhyl RadyrBarry BangorPenarth ** ** NewportSwanseaBridgend Active Travel Approved Routes ** Caerphilly ** ** ** Cardiff BayPontypridd ** ** ** ** ** Cardiff Central ** Merthyr Tydfil Active Travel Designated Localities ** ** Cardiff Queen Street Parkway ** 9 8 Footnotes Infrastructure Transportation & 01. 8 — Cardiff Capital Region State of the Region Part 1: Connected Data, 2017 UK CivilAviation Authority: UKAirport Data, 2005-2017 UK CivilAviation Authority: UKAirport passengers passingthrough theairport. and 2017 of26%resulting in300,000 more increase inscheduled between2015 flights 2005 and2015, Cardiff saw an Airport Following decliningnumbers between only 76% in2015 to 81% in2017. of scheduled Cardiffflights, from Airport been animprovement inthepercentage business travel use. There hashowever areflights often used asanindicator of intheUK.Scheduled other majorairports thanmost scheduled flights to chartered Cardiff hasa much highermixof Airport more passengers on scheduled flights from onscheduled flights more passengers in 2017 in2017 compared to 2015 Cardiff Airport

MORE THAN 300k Percentage change in terminal passengers from scheduled flights (2015-2017)8 Air transport movements, scheduled vs chartered flights (2017)9

ABERDEEN

BELFAST INTERNATIONAL

INV +31% ABZ -10% BRISTOL

CARDIFF 2015

CARDIFF 2017

EDI EAST +21% GLA +14%

GATWICK

NCL BFS +16% +33% HEATHROW

INVERNESS LBA +18% BRADFORD LPL +14% MAN EMA +20% +10% CITY

BHX LUTON +28% LTN +30% STN +15% MANCHESTER CWL LHR +26% NEWCASTLE +4% LCY +5% SOU BRS +17% LGW +21% +13% STANSTEAD

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Scheduled Flights Chartered Flights Between 2015 and 2017 ports in and 01. around the Cardiff Capital Region, apart from Cardiff, Port Talbot, and Bristol saw Transportation & increases in the volume of freight carried, with Newport and seeing triple Infrastructure digit percentage growth.

The greatest decline during this period was at Cardiff (-217 thousand tons) and the greatest increase was Newport (+2,395 thousand tons).

Total goods lifted by road from, to, and in Wales for domestic haulage have all been increasing, with within Wales goods increasing the most from 36,143 thousand tonnes to 45,470 thousand tonnes between 2013 and 2017.

Footnotes 10 Welsh Government: Road Freight, 2017 11 Port Freight Statistics: Freight traffic, by port, in thousands of tonnes, 2017 10 12 Ibid. Goods lifted by road within, to and from Wales by UK registered HGVs, by commodity group, in thousand tonnes (2013-2017)

50,000

37,500

25,000 Connected

12,500

0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Cardiff Capital Region Capital Cardiff 1: Part of the Region State

10 — From Wales to rest of UK To Wales from rest of UK Within Wales Change in freight traffic, by port, in thousands of tonnes (2015-2017)11 2015 2017 Change

Barry: 207 292 85

Bristol: 8877 8741 -136

Cardiff: 1791 1574 -217

Neath: 192 223 31

Newport: 1055 3450 2395

Port Talbot: 8113 7589 -524

Sharpness: 60 432 372

Swansea: 518 542 24

Percentage change in freight traffic, by port (2015-2017)12

NEATH +620% +16% SHARPNESS +4% +227% PORT -2% -6% TALBOT -12% NEWPORT BRISTOL CARDIFF

+41% BARRY 15 14 13 Footnotes Housing 02. 12 — Cardiff Capital Region State of the Region Part 1: Connected Welsh Government Homelessness datacollection, Information Database Rent Officers Wales - Lettings June 2018 areas inEngland andWales: year ending ONS: House statisticsfor small

Median house price paid(All year house types, endingJune 2018) accommodation. Capital Region was £506 for 2-bedroom authority rent intheCardiffunitary of Glamorgan (+11.8%). Theaverage the greatest increase beingintheVale Capital Region from 2012to 2017, with have increased throughout theCardiff Rents for 2-bedroom accommodation £287,500 -£380,000 £216,750 -£287,500 £161,000 -£216,750 £112,500 -£161,000 £50,000 -£112,500 of Glamorgan. Caerphilly, Cardiff, andthe Newport, Vale needin homeless andinpriority populations found eligible, unintentionally Capital Region, withtriple digit homelessness throughout theCardiff There isconsiderable variation in 13 Average private sector rent Households found to be eligible, unintentionally (2 bedroom accommodation)14 homeless and in priority need during the year15

2012 2017 Change 2015/16 2017/18 Change

Blaenau Gwent: £358.59 £376.39 +5.0% 12 36 +200.0%

Bridgend: £469.30 £498.29 +6.2% 57 93 +63.2%

Caerphilly: £456.39 £464.40 +1.8% 54 135 +150.0%

Cardiff: £615.85 £687.42 +11.6% 570 669 +1 7.4 %

Merthyr Tydfil: £391.81 £410.06 +4.7% 9 9 0.0%

Monmouthshire: £530.63 £567.17 +6.9% 39 33 -15.4%

Newport: £494.92 £517.67 +4.6% 204 279 +36.8%

Rhondda Cynon Taf: £406.28 £433.88 +6.8% 60 75 +25.0%

Vale of Glamorgan: £563.60 £630.12 +11.8% 84 120 +42.9%

Torfaen: £477.20 £481.20 +0.8% 69 42 -39.1% 16 Footnotes Housing 02. 14 — Cardiff Capital Region State of the Region Part 1: Connected 9, 2019 administrative geographies:HPSSA dataset ONS: Medianhouse prices for Percentage changeinaverage house price paidby ofhouse (Q1 type 2016- Q12018) price paidbetween2016and2018. percentage change(>15%) inaverage and Torfaen, have flats seen thegreatest £380,000. InCaerphilly, Monmouthshire, lows of£50,000 to medianhighsof the Cardiff Capital Region, from median There isasharpdivideinhouse prices in Rhondda Cynon Taf: Vale ofGlamorgan: Blaenau Gwent: Monmouthshire: Merthyr Tydfil: Caerphilly: Bridgend: Newport: Torfaen: Cardiff: +10.5% Detached +0.6% +3.7% -4.6% +1.4% +1.4% -8.4% -0.3% -3.2% -4.1% Semi-Detached +26.3% +22.3% +6.5% +9.5% 74% +7.4 74% +7.4 +4.1% -5.5% -1.8% -0.1% 16 +8.0% +6.9% +5.4% +5.3% Terraced -0.4% 74% +7.4 7 % 5 +7. +2.1% -3.5% -7.8% +26.4% +36.4% +15.9% -10.0% +11.2% +9.4% 7 % 3 +7. -8.9% -5.8% -5.5% Flat

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