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Monthly Insight Dawn of a New Decade January 2020 Monthly InsighT Dawn of a new decade Wonjae Park Chuljoong Kim +822-3774-1426 +822-3774-1464 [email protected] [email protected] Young-gun Kim Yumi Cha +822-3774-1583 +822-3774-1770 [email protected] [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. I. Investment strategy • Korean IT plays to gain competitive edge in 2020, with earnings improving steadily; Heightened expectations largely reflected II. Sector view III. Think big IV. Global IT navigation V. Spotlight stocks & other notable stocks 2| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Mirae Asset Daewoo IT universe share performance December: 17.2% for spotlight stocks vs. 11.8% for other notable stocks Monthly InsighT returns Avg. of spotlight stocks 17.2 Cumulative returns MCNEX 40.1 Avg. of spotlight stocks 178.1 Avg. of notable stocks -16.6 SK Hynix 16.3 KOSPI 40.2 KOSDAQ -1.4 (%) LG Innotek 14.8 -100 0 100 200 Note: September 2014-December 2019 SEMCO 12.6 -1Y Samsung SDI 2.2 Avg. of spotlight stocks 39.7 Avg. of notable stocks 13.0 Avg. of notable stocks 11.8 KOSPI 7.7 KOSDAQ -0.8 (%) SSC 22.6 -20-100 1020304050 December SEC 10.9 Avg. of spotlight stocks 17.2 LGD 10.5 Avg. of notable stocks 11.8 KOSPI 5.3 LGE 3.1 (%) KOSDAQ 5.8 (%) 01020 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 3| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Korean IT plays to gain competitive edge in 2020, with earnings improving steadily; Heightened expectations largely reflected ■ IT sector update - Display: LCD panel prices are rebounding; we expect 1Q20 prices to rise, as Chinese Share performance & OP consensus revision rates for Korean IT large caps LCD panel makers have demanded ASP hikes. OLED investments are projected to increase, with China’s OLED investments continuing and Samsung Display likely to (%) (%) resume investments in its A5 flexible OLED fab. Share performance (1M, L) 4Q19 consensus revision rate (R) - Batteries: The BEV market remains sluggish. However, we expect market sentiment 30 50 to improve in 1H20 (Model 3 sales in China and new releases such as the Tesla Model Y and Volkswagen ID) and earnings to recover in 2H20 (ESS earnings 15 25 stabilization and EV battery revenue expansion). 0 0 - Semiconductors: DRAM spot prices have begun to rebound, and contract price hikes are likely to follow, leading to a sustained price uptrend. -15 -25 - Handsets/components: Smartphone demand has remained soft, with 1.34mn units being sold in November (-3.0% YoY, -2.7% QoQ). SEC and Apple are expected to see -30 -50 increased sales in 2020 (foldables, 5G technology, and the iPhone SE 2). - TVs/home appliances: Competition is growing in the TV market. While the home appliance market is expanding, 4Q is traditionally a slow season. ■ Strategies 1) OLED equipment makers to benefit from China’s OLED investments and Samsung Display’s A5 fab investments 2) Foldable display market to bloom; focus on OLED materials/parts makers with bright Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research earnings prospects for 1Q20 (SKC Kolon PI) 3) Semiconductor share prices may look high following recent advances, but upcoming spot and contract price hikes should provide another tailwind. 4) Handset and component providers deserve continued attention, as SEC’s and Apple’s earnings are expected to rebound. We advise investors to look for the beneficiaries of Huawei’s woes, foldable displays, and the iPhone SE 2. ■ Spotlight stocks - SK Hynix, Samsung SDI, SEMCO, LG Innotek, Seoul Semiconductor Korean IT large caps Current price Share performance (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Company Rating TP (W) Upside (%) (W, 12/30) 1W 1M 19F 20F 19F 20F 19F 20F SK Hynix Buy 115,000 94,100 22.2 -0.5 16.3 28.1 12.8 1.3 1.2 5.1 10.7 Samsung SDI Buy 315,000 236,000 33.5 3.5 2.2 31.9 17.6 1.3 1.2 4.3 7.3 SEMCO Buy 151,000 125,000 20.8 4.6 12.6 16.2 18.0 1.8 1.6 11.8 9.6 LG Innotek Buy 171,000 140,000 22.1 4.1 14.8 18.3 12.1 1.4 1.3 8.2 11.3 SSC Buy 21,300 16,250 31.1 6.6 22.6 22.7 19.7 1.4 1.3 6.3 7.0 SEC Buy 70,000 55,800 25.4 0.5 10.9 17.5 13.0 1.5 1.4 8.8 11.1 LGE Buy 89,900 72,100 24.7 -0.6 3.2 15.0 9.4 0.9 0.8 5.9 8.9 LGD Buy 20,000 16,250 23.1 1.6 10.5 -3.7 -23.9 0.5 0.5 -11.8 -1.9 Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Earnings forecast revisions for large-cap IT plays (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 4Q19F 2019F 2020F 4Q19F 2019F 2020F 4Q19F 2019F 2020F SK Hynix Revenue 6,339 26,402 30,466 6,339 26,402 30,466 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 476 2,953 7,398 476 2,953 7,398 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 314 2,259 5,422 314 2,259 5,422 0.0 0.0 0.0 Samsung SDIRevenue 2,982 10,259 11,798 2,975 10,252 11,370 -0.2 -0.1 -3.6 Cut earnings estimates for OP 37 479 1,001 33 475 900 -11.5 -0.9 -10.0 cylindrical batteries and ESS NP 42 432 864 30 437 769 -28.4 1.2 -11.1 SEMCO Revenue 1,969 8,323 8,904 1,973 8,327 8,836 0.2 0.1 -0.8 OP 116 684 803 140 708 840 20.9 3.5 4.6 HDIbusiness suspension NP 84 621 603 -138 398 641 TTR -35.8 6.3 LG Innotek Revenue 2,703 8,040 8,498 2,739 8,075 8,786 1.3 0.4 3.4 Robust Apple product sales OP 177 371 415 181 375 418 2.2 1.0 0.6 NP 77 164 275 72 158 277 -7.1 -3.4 0.8 SSC Revenue 277 1,125 1,135 281 1,129 1,167 1.3 0.4 2.9 Favorable F/X movements OP 10 46 73 10 45 74 -2.2 -1.2 1.8 NP 7 41 49 6 40 50 -12.4 -2.7 1.8 SEC Revenue 58,685 229,201 245,561 58,685 229,201 245,561 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 6,968 27,576 38,876 6,968 27,576 38,876 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 5,583 21,860 29,985 5,583 21,860 29,985 0.0 0.0 0.0 LGE Revenue 16,229 62,474 66,979 16,265 62,510 66,117 0.2 0.1 -1.3 OP 255 2,589 2,992 197 2,532 2,882 -22.7 -2.2 -3.7 Intensifying competition in TVs NP -153 754 1,561 -190 717 1,482 RR -4.9 -5.1 Delays to recognition of depreciation expenses LGD Revenue 5,748 22,803 20,912 5,748 22,802 20,911 0.0 0.0 0.0 for the Guangzhou plant OP -677 -1,614 -203 -536 -1,474 69 RR RR -134.1 LCD panel price hikes NP -489 -1,518 -344 -426 -1,455 -365 0.0 RR RR Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Consensus vs. Mirae Asset Daewoo estimates (Wbn, %) Mirae Asset Daewoo Consensus % diff. Notes 4Q19F 2019F 2020F 4Q19F 2019F 2020F 4Q19F 2019F 2020F SK Hynix Revenue 6,339 26,402 30,466 6,739 26,804 31,007 -5.9 -1.5 -1.7 OP 476 2,953 7,398 432 2,912 7,024 10.1 1.4 5.3 NP 314 2,259 5,422 384 2,437 5,365 -18.2 -7.3 1.1 Samsung SDIRevenue 2,975 10,252 11,370 2,924 10,210 12,184 1.7 0.4 -6.7 OP 33 475 900 41 483 958 -19.2 -1.7 -6.0 NP 30 437 769 141 520 942 -78.8 -15.9 -18.4 Lower equity-method gains (Samsung Display) SEMCO Revenue 1,973 8,327 8,836 1,985 8,332 8,935 -0.6 -0.1 -1.1 OP 140 708 840 123 683 802 14.4 3.7 4.7 NP -138 398 641 84 599 540 TTB -33.5 18.7 HDI business sell-off LG Innotek Revenue 2,739 8,075 8,786 2,718 8,055 9,004 0.8 0.3 -2.4 OP 181 375 418 162 355 452 11.6 5.5 -7.7 Conservative estimates for Apple sales NP 72 158 277 93 181 275 -23.5 -12.7 0.9 SSC Revenue 281 1,129 1,167 277 1,124 1,156 1.4 0.5 1.0 OP 10 45 74 11 46 67 -14.0 -0.9 10.7 Expectations for TV BLU NP 6 40 50 8 42 48 -20.6 -4.2 3.5 SEC Revenue 58,685 229,201 245,561 61,032 231,457 255,054 -3.8 -1.0 -3.7 OP 6,968 27,576 38,876 6,596 27,173 37,804 5.6 1.5 2.8 NP 5,583 21,860 29,985 4,880 21,710 29,195 14.4 0.7 2.7 LGE Revenue 16,265 62,510 66,117 16,427 62,667 65,618 -1.0 -0.3 0.8 OP 197 2,532 2,882 286 2,619 2,914 -31.0 -3.3 -1.1 Intensifying competition in TVs NP -190 717 1,482 -92 868 1,391 RR -17.4 6.6 LGD Revenue 5,748 22,802 20,911 6,236 23,290 23,869 -7.8 -2.1 -12.4 OP -536 -1,474 69 -608 -1,545 -63 RR RR -209.7 NP -426 -1,455 -365 -591 -1,575 -243 RR RR RR Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I.
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