Week 4: Covert Action

Coups and Popular Revolutions Sometimes elections don’t mean anything… ● Violent means are needed to remove unfriendly governments: ○ Coups ○ Popular revolutions Coups: Definition ● Sudden overthrow of the government. ○ Group from establishment. ○ Often military ○ Not ideological. Coup Menu

● US-backed: ○ Iran 1953 ○ Guatemala 1954 ○ Congo 1961 ○ Brazil 1964 ○ Chile 1973

● Soviet-backed: ○ Czechoslovakia 1968 Iran before 1953

● Constitutional monarchy ruled by shah.

● Elected prime ministers, ○ Mohammed Mossadeq

● Mossadeq seeks to nationalize oil industry.

Mossadeq (L), Mohammed Reza Pahlavi ®. CIA orchestrates coup in 1953

● Two possible rationales:

● Secure Iran from communism.

● Secure Iranian oil for US corporations. Guatemala after WWII

● Succession of nationalist left-leaning leaders.

● Jacobo Arbenz elected president in 1951.

● Seeks to redistribute land to peasants Arbenz overthrown in 1954 The Congo after independence

● Independence from in 1960.

● Congolese National Movement led by wins first elections.

● Lumumba is left-leaning, but not Soviet-backed. Coup and assassination of Lumumba ● Lumumba chastises imperialism, demands Belgian troops leave.

● CIA hires assassins to kill Lumumba.

● Overthrown by in 1961. ○ Killed soon after. Brazil and Chile: Two socialist leaders

Joao Goulart: President of Salvador Allende: President Brazil (1961-1964) of Chile(1970-1973) Indirect support for coups

Brazil 1964

Chile 1973 Czechoslovakia after WWII

● Communists win 31% of vote in free elections in 1946.

● Control interior ministry and army.

● Lose popularity after election Coup of 1948 ● Communists purge non-communist officers from army.

● Non-communists resign.

● Army takes over communist ministries.

● President Benes forced to resign. When were coups supported? When were coups supported?

● Countries nearly under influence of one superpower.

● Countries where ideological relatives of the other superpower could win elections.

● Forsythe: Democracies were not fully developed.

● Coups brought ‘stability’ Popular Revolution: Definition

● Fundamental change in government in short time.

● Initiated from the outside. 1952-1958 ● Fulgencio Batista takes power in coup in 1952.

● Corrupt, unpopular, tied to American organized crime.

● US embargo in 1958. Castro takes power

● Begins armed struggle against Batista.

● Rapid progress in 1958.

● Batista resigns on New Year’s Eve 1958 Cuba becomes conduit for Soviet support to Latin American insurgencies

Guatemala (1960-1996) El Salvador (1979-1992) Colombia (1964-present) Congo 1963

● Attempt to secede and form socialist state fails.

● Simba rebellion

● Widespread violence attracts Western attention. CIA and Belgian troops put down rebellion US support for popular revolutions

● We’ve seen Ukraine/Baltics and later .

● More often in the form of a proxy war after revolution (next week!). ○ Nicaragua ○ Angola ○ Mozambique When were revolutions supported? When were revolutions supported?

● Total government control by ideological enemy.

● Closer to other superpower’s sphere of influence.

● Existing insurgency. Coups vs. Revolutions Coups vs. Revolutions

● Coups: usually pro-status quo

● Revolutions: usually anti-status quo

● Support for ideology of superpower in channels of power crucial. Effects of Coups

● Legitimacy problems

● Reaction against superpower patron. (1979) ● Sometimes, civil war and/or terrorism Discussion

Is support for coups ever justified? What factors should be considered in deciding whether to support a coup? Effects of Revolutions

● Reactionary forces respond.

● Often proxy wars follow

Takeaway: Both coups and revolutions can lead to more violence. Next Week

Proxy Wars