Week 4: Covert Action
Coups and Popular Revolutions Sometimes elections don’t mean anything… ● Violent means are needed to remove unfriendly governments: ○ Coups ○ Popular revolutions Coups: Definition ● Sudden overthrow of the government. ○ Group from establishment. ○ Often military ○ Not ideological. Coup Menu
● US-backed: ○ Iran 1953 ○ Guatemala 1954 ○ Congo 1961 ○ Brazil 1964 ○ Chile 1973
● Soviet-backed: ○ Czechoslovakia 1968 Iran before 1953
● Constitutional monarchy ruled by shah.
● Elected prime ministers, ○ Mohammed Mossadeq
● Mossadeq seeks to nationalize oil industry.
Mossadeq (L), Mohammed Reza Pahlavi ®. CIA orchestrates coup in 1953
● Two possible rationales:
● Secure Iran from communism.
● Secure Iranian oil for US corporations. Guatemala after WWII
● Succession of nationalist left-leaning leaders.
● Jacobo Arbenz elected president in 1951.
● Seeks to redistribute land to peasants Arbenz overthrown in 1954 The Congo after independence
● Independence from Belgium in 1960.
● Congolese National Movement led by Patrice Lumumba wins first elections.
● Lumumba is left-leaning, but not Soviet-backed. Coup and assassination of Lumumba ● Lumumba chastises imperialism, demands Belgian troops leave.
● CIA hires assassins to kill Lumumba.
● Overthrown by Mobutu Sese Seko in 1961. ○ Killed soon after. Brazil and Chile: Two socialist leaders
Joao Goulart: President of Salvador Allende: President Brazil (1961-1964) of Chile(1970-1973) Indirect support for coups
Brazil 1964
Chile 1973 Czechoslovakia after WWII
● Communists win 31% of vote in free elections in 1946.
● Control interior ministry and army.
● Lose popularity after election Coup of 1948 ● Communists purge non-communist officers from army.
● Non-communists resign.
● Army takes over communist ministries.
● President Benes forced to resign. When were coups supported? When were coups supported?
● Countries nearly under influence of one superpower.
● Countries where ideological relatives of the other superpower could win elections.
● Forsythe: Democracies were not fully developed.
● Coups brought ‘stability’ Popular Revolution: Definition
● Fundamental change in government in short time.
● Initiated from the outside. Cuba 1952-1958 ● Fulgencio Batista takes power in coup in 1952.
● Corrupt, unpopular, tied to American organized crime.
● US embargo in 1958. Castro takes power
● Begins armed struggle against Batista.
● Rapid progress in 1958.
● Batista resigns on New Year’s Eve 1958 Cuba becomes conduit for Soviet support to Latin American insurgencies
Guatemala (1960-1996) El Salvador (1979-1992) Colombia (1964-present) Congo 1963
● Attempt to secede and form socialist state fails.
● Simba rebellion
● Widespread violence attracts Western attention. CIA and Belgian troops put down rebellion US support for popular revolutions
● We’ve seen Ukraine/Baltics and later Afghanistan.
● More often in the form of a proxy war after revolution (next week!). ○ Nicaragua ○ Angola ○ Mozambique When were revolutions supported? When were revolutions supported?
● Total government control by ideological enemy.
● Closer to other superpower’s sphere of influence.
● Existing insurgency. Coups vs. Revolutions Coups vs. Revolutions
● Coups: usually pro-status quo
● Revolutions: usually anti-status quo
● Support for ideology of superpower in channels of power crucial. Effects of Coups
● Legitimacy problems
● Reaction against superpower patron. Iranian Revolution (1979) ● Sometimes, civil war and/or terrorism Discussion
Is support for coups ever justified? What factors should be considered in deciding whether to support a coup? Effects of Revolutions
● Reactionary forces respond.
● Often proxy wars follow
Takeaway: Both coups and revolutions can lead to more violence. Next Week
Proxy Wars