Week 4: Covert Action Coups and Popular Revolutions Sometimes elections don’t mean anything… ● Violent means are needed to remove unfriendly governments: ○ Coups ○ Popular revolutions Coups: Definition ● Sudden overthrow of the government. ○ Group from establishment. ○ Often military ○ Not ideological. Coup Menu ● US-backed: ○ Iran 1953 ○ Guatemala 1954 ○ Congo 1961 ○ Brazil 1964 ○ Chile 1973 ● Soviet-backed: ○ Czechoslovakia 1968 Iran before 1953 ● Constitutional monarchy ruled by shah. ● Elected prime ministers, ○ Mohammed Mossadeq ● Mossadeq seeks to nationalize oil industry. Mossadeq (L), Mohammed Reza Pahlavi ®. CIA orchestrates coup in 1953 ● Two possible rationales: ● Secure Iran from communism. ● Secure Iranian oil for US corporations. Guatemala after WWII ● Succession of nationalist left-leaning leaders. ● Jacobo Arbenz elected president in 1951. ● Seeks to redistribute land to peasants Arbenz overthrown in 1954 The Congo after independence ● Independence from Belgium in 1960. ● Congolese National Movement led by Patrice Lumumba wins first elections. ● Lumumba is left-leaning, but not Soviet-backed. Coup and assassination of Lumumba ● Lumumba chastises imperialism, demands Belgian troops leave. ● CIA hires assassins to kill Lumumba. ● Overthrown by Mobutu Sese Seko in 1961. ○ Killed soon after. Brazil and Chile: Two socialist leaders Joao Goulart: President of Salvador Allende: President Brazil (1961-1964) of Chile(1970-1973) Indirect support for coups Brazil 1964 Chile 1973 Czechoslovakia after WWII ● Communists win 31% of vote in free elections in 1946. ● Control interior ministry and army. ● Lose popularity after election Coup of 1948 ● Communists purge non-communist officers from army. ● Non-communists resign. ● Army takes over communist ministries. ● President Benes forced to resign. When were coups supported? When were coups supported? ● Countries nearly under influence of one superpower. ● Countries where ideological relatives of the other superpower could win elections. ● Forsythe: Democracies were not fully developed. ● Coups brought ‘stability’ Popular Revolution: Definition ● Fundamental change in government in short time. ● Initiated from the outside. Cuba 1952-1958 ● Fulgencio Batista takes power in coup in 1952. ● Corrupt, unpopular, tied to American organized crime. ● US embargo in 1958. Castro takes power ● Begins armed struggle against Batista. ● Rapid progress in 1958. ● Batista resigns on New Year’s Eve 1958 Cuba becomes conduit for Soviet support to Latin American insurgencies Guatemala (1960-1996) El Salvador (1979-1992) Colombia (1964-present) Congo 1963 ● Attempt to secede and form socialist state fails. ● Simba rebellion ● Widespread violence attracts Western attention. CIA and Belgian troops put down rebellion US support for popular revolutions ● We’ve seen Ukraine/Baltics and later Afghanistan. ● More often in the form of a proxy war after revolution (next week!). ○ Nicaragua ○ Angola ○ Mozambique When were revolutions supported? When were revolutions supported? ● Total government control by ideological enemy. ● Closer to other superpower’s sphere of influence. ● Existing insurgency. Coups vs. Revolutions Coups vs. Revolutions ● Coups: usually pro-status quo ● Revolutions: usually anti-status quo ● Support for ideology of superpower in channels of power crucial. Effects of Coups ● Legitimacy problems ● Reaction against superpower patron. Iranian Revolution (1979) ● Sometimes, civil war and/or terrorism Discussion Is support for coups ever justified? What factors should be considered in deciding whether to support a coup? Effects of Revolutions ● Reactionary forces respond. ● Often proxy wars follow Takeaway: Both coups and revolutions can lead to more violence. Next Week Proxy Wars.