[TITLE] DRAFT Prepared for JUNE 2020 Mansfield Shire Council ▪ Most of the analysis in this report was undertaken prior to the Global COVID-19 Pandemic. The ongoing economic, social, and environmental impacts of the pandemic are uncertain at this stage, however as new information comes to light it will inform preparation of the Mansfield 2040 later in the project. © SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd 2021 This report has been prepared for Mansfield Shire Council. SGS Economics and Planning has taken all due care in the preparation of this report. However, SGS and its associated consultants are not liable to any person or entity for any damage or loss that has occurred, or may occur, in relation to that person or entity taking or not taking action in respect of any representation, statement, opinion or advice referred to herein. SGS Economics and Planning Pty Ltd ACN 007 437 729 www.sgsep.com.au Offices in Canberra, Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney 20190547 Mansfield 2040_Background and discussion paper_Technical Report 210323.docx TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VII 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Project background and purpose 1 1.2 Council’s role in creating a more liveable Shire 4 1.3 Structure of this document 4 1.4 Key questions for the Mansfield Shire community 5 2. THE SHIRE OF MANSFIELD AT A GLANCE 7 2.1 The Shire of Mansfield 7 2.2 A short history of Mansfield 9 2.3 Demographic and household profile 11 3. MACROTRENDS AFFECTING MANSFIELD 19 3.1 Population change and distribution 19 3.2 An ageing Population 19 3.3 Climate change and variability 20 3.4 Structural changes to the economy 20 3.5 Trends in agriculture 21 3.6 Trends in tourism 22 3.7 COVID-19 and potential implications 22 4. POLICY CONTEXT 25 4.1 State and regional planning policy 25 4.2 Taungurung Country Plan 26 4.3 Mansfield policies and plans 27 5. SETTLEMENT AND HOUSING 39 5.1 The Shire’s towns and settlements 39 5.2 Housing 42 5.3 Capacity for future housing growth 48 5.4 Housing affordability 51 5.5 Absentee landholdings 55 5.6 Sensitive interfaces 57 5.7 Challenges and opportunities 58 6. ENVIRONMENT AND LANDSCAPE 61 6.1 Mansfield’s environmental values 61 Click here to enter text. i 6.2 Natural hazards 75 6.3 Challenges and opportunities 78 7. BUILT ENVIRONMENT AND HERITAGE 81 7.1 Built environment 81 7.2 Places of cultural heritage significance 92 7.3 Challenges and opportunities 96 8. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 99 8.1 An overview of business and employment in Mansfield 99 8.2 The visitor economy 100 8.3 Mansfield’s commercial and industrial precincts 101 8.4 Preliminary discussions with local businesses 104 8.5 Challenges and opportunities 105 9. AGRICULTURE 109 9.1 An overview of agriculture in Mansfield 109 9.2 Agriculture outlook 113 9.3 Lot sizes and land ownership 114 9.4 Challenges and opportunities 119 10. TRANSPORT 121 10.1 The Shire’s transport connections 121 10.2 How do people get around Mansfield today? 131 10.3 Challenges and opportunities 131 11. INFRASTRUCTURE 134 11.1 Community infrastructure 134 11.2 Open space 140 11.3 Waste, water, telecommunications and energy infrastructure 142 11.4 Telecommunications, electricity, and gas 144 11.5 Fluctuating populations and demand for infrastructure 145 11.6 Challenges and opportunities 147 12. IMPLICATIONS FOR MANSFIELD 2040 150 12.2 Next steps 153 APPENDIX A: MANSFIELD PLANNING SCHEME 154 Click here to enter text. ii LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: POLICY HIERARCHY 2 FIGURE 2: PROCESS FOR DEVELOPING THE STRATEGY 3 FIGURE 3: ICONIC VIEWS EAST TO THE ALPINE NATIONAL PARK ALONG MOUNT BULLER TOURIST ROAD 7 FIGURE 4: FLOODPLAINS AROUND MACS COVE AND HOWQUA AREA, NEAR LAKE EILDON 7 FIGURE 5: THE SHIRE OF MANSFIELD, IN CONTEXT 8 FIGURE 6: TAUNGURUNG COUNTRY 9 FIGURE 7: HISTORIC AND FUTURE POPULATION GROWTH 11 FIGURE 8: NUMBER OF DWELLINGS* 14 FIGURE 9: TOTAL DWELLINGS (BASED ON DE-IDENTIFIED RATEPAYERS) 14 FIGURE 10: NUMBER OF UNOCCUPIED DWELLINGS, BASED ON CENSUS COUNT* 15 FIGURE 11: NUMBER OF NON-RESIDENT RATEPAYERS (DEIDENTIFIED) 15 FIGURE 12: AGE PROFILE BY SERVICE AGE GROUPS, 2006 TO 2036 16 FIGURE 13: PLACE OF USUAL RESIDENCE FIVE YEARS AGO, 2016 16 FIGURE 14: INDUSTRY OF EMPLOYMENT, 2016 17 FIGURE 15: PLANNING ZONES IN MANSFIELD SHIRE 30 FIGURE 16: SELECTED PLANNING OVERLAYS IN MANSFIELD SHIRE 32 FIGURE 17: PLANNING OVERLAYS – BUSHFIRE MANAGEMENT OVERLAY 33 FIGURE 18: HUME REGIONAL GROWTH PLAN SETTLEMENT FRAMEWORK 40 FIGURE 19: LAND ZONED FOR RESIDENTIAL USE 43 FIGURE 20: LOT SIZES IN THE RURAL LIVING ZONE 44 FIGURE 21: PLANNING APPROVALS FOR NEW DWELLING CONSTRUCTION, 2009 TO 2020 45 FIGURE 22: POPULATION BY FAMILY TYPE, 2016 TO 2036 47 FIGURE 23: ESTIMATE OF HOUSING CAPACITY, 2020 48 FIGURE 24: HOUSE PRICE GROWTH COMPARISON, 2006 TO 2016 51 FIGURE 25: NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS EXPERIENCING RENTAL STRESS, 2016 53 FIGURE 26: LOCATIONS OF NON-RESIDENT RATEPAYERS BY LGA 55 FIGURE 27: NON-RESIDENT RATEPAYERS BY LGA - TOP 15 56 FIGURE 28: PUBLIC LAND, STATE AND NATIONAL PARKS IN MANSFIELD SHIRE 62 FIGURE 29: BIOREGIONS IN MANSFIELD SHIRE 63 FIGURE 30: WATERWAYS AND FLOOD-PRONE LAND ACROSS MANSFIELD SHIRE 65 FIGURE 31: DECLARED WATER SUPPLY CATCHMENTS 66 FIGURE 32: PRE-1750 MODELLED VEGETATION COVERAGE (ECOLOGICAL VEGETATION CLASSES) 68 FIGURE 33: 2005 VEGETATION EXTENT (ECOLOGICAL VEGETATION CLASSES) 69 FIGURE 34: VIEW EAST ALONG MOUNT BULLER ROAD, FROM THE CENTRAL VICTORIAN UPLANDS TO THE HIGHLANDS AND VICTORIAN ALPS LANDFORMS 70 FIGURE 35: REMNANT RIVER RED GUMS ON PRIVATE PROPERTY PROVIDE NATURAL LANDMARKS IN SHORT- AND MEDIUM-RANGE VIEWS THROUGHOUT THE UPLANDS 70 FIGURE 36: PICNIC SPOT NEAR LAKE EILDON 71 FIGURE 37: GENTLY ROLLING PLAINS SOUTH OF MANSFIELD 71 FIGURE 38: ICONIC VIEWS ACROSS LAKE EILDON, FROM GOUGHS BAY 72 FIGURE 39: FARMLAND WITH LONG-RANGING VIEWS TO WELL-VEGETATED HILLS, BETWEEN JAMIESON AND MANSFIELD 72 FIGURE 40: LANDSCAPE FEATURES ACROSS THE MANSFIELD LGA 73 FIGURE 41: LAKE EILDON BOATING AND FACILITIES MAP 74 Click here to enter text. iii FIGURE 42: BUSHFIRE MANAGEMENT OVERLAY 76 FIGURE 43: MANSFIELD TOWNSHIPS AND SETTLEMENTS 83 FIGURE 44: MANSFIELD TOWNSHIP LOT SIZES 85 FIGURE 45: BONNIE DOON LOT SIZES 86 FIGURE 46: LOT SIZES IN MAINDAMPLE (LEFT) AND JAMIESON (RIGHT) 89 FIGURE 47: LOT SIZES IN GOUGHS BAY (LEFT) PLUS HOWQUA AND MACS COVER (RIGHT) 89 FIGURE 48: MERRIJIG AND SURROUNDS (TOP) PLUS MERTON (BOTTOM) 90 FIGURE 49: PLACES COVERED BY THE HERITAGE OVERLAY IN MANSFIELD 93 FIGURE 50: PLACES RECOGNISED UNDER THE HERITAGE OVERLAY IN MANSFIELD TOWNSHIP (LEFT) AND JAMIESON (RIGHT) 94 FIGURE 51: AREAS OF ABORIGINAL CULTURAL HERITAGE SENSITIVITY 95 FIGURE 52: COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL PRECINCTS IN MANSFIELD TOWNSHIP 102 FIGURE 53: EMPLOYMENT AND OUTPUT, MANSFIELD SHIRE, 2015-16 110 FIGURE 54: GROSS VALUE OF AGRICULTURE, MANSFIELD SHIRE 110 FIGURE 55: AGRICULTURAL LAND VERSATILITY 111 FIGURE 56: SOIL TYPES 112 FIGURE 57: FARMING ZONE LOT SIZES 116 FIGURE 58: FARMING ZONE LAND OWNERSHIP 117 FIGURE 59: CENTRAL HUME SUB-REGION TRANSPORT NETWORK 121 FIGURE 60 NORTH EASTERN REGIONAL VICTORIA TRAIN AND COACH NETWORK MAP 122 FIGURE 61: ROADS BY MANSFIELD SHIRE ROAD STATUS 126 FIGURE 62: MANSFIELD TOWNSHIP FOOTPATH NETWORK 128 FIGURE 63: TRANSPORT AND TRAILS ACROSS MANSFIELD SHIRE 130 FIGURE 64: COMMUNITY FACILITIES IN THE MANSFIELD TOWNSHIP 135 FIGURE 65: BONNIE DOON (LEFT) AND JAMIESON (RIGHT) COMMUNITY FACILITIES 136 FIGURE 66: MANSFIELD STATION PRECINCT ACTIVATION PROJECT CONCEPT MASTER PLAN - PREFERRED OPTION 137 FIGURE 67: MANSFIELD TOWNSHIP OPEN SPACE AND RECREATION INFRASTRUCTURE 141 FIGURE 68: BONNIE DOON (LEFT) AND JAMIESON (RIGHT) OPEN SPACE AND RECREATION INFRASTRUCTURE 142 Click here to enter text. iv LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: COMPARISON OF FORECAST POPULATION GROWTH MANSFIELD AND REGIONAL VICTORIA 11 TABLE 2: HOUSEHOLDS IN MANSFIELD SHIRE AND REGIONAL VICTORIA, 2016 12 TABLE 3: PROPORTION OF UNOCCUPIED PRIVATE DWELLINGS, AND NON-RESIDENT RATEPAYER DWELLINGS, BY SUBURB ACROSS MANSFIELD’S URBAN AREAS AND SMALLER SETTLEMENTS 13 TABLE 4: OCCUPATION, 2016 17 TABLE 5: RESIDENTIAL ZONES THAT APPLY IN MANSFIELD SHIRE 42 TABLE 6: HISTORIC AND FORECAST CHANGE IN POPULATION 2006 TO 2016 AND 2016 AND 2036 46 TABLE 7: DWELLING DEMAND, 2016 TO 2036 47 TABLE 8: HOUSING CAPACITY BY ZONE (REPORTED AS TOTAL NUMBER OF LOTS) 49 TABLE 9: TOTAL DEMAND FOR SOCIAL AND AFFORDABLE HOUSING, 2016 53 TABLE 10: RENTAL STRESS BY HOUSEHOLD TYPE, 2036 54 TABLE 11: BIOREGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS IN MANSFIELD SHIRE 64 TABLE 12: LANDSCAPE AND ENVIRONMENT OVERLAYS IN MANSFIELD SHIRE 67 TABLE 13: TOWNSHIP CHARACTER 87 TABLE 14: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES BY EMPLOYMENT LOCATION 106 TABLE 15: LOT SIZES AND LAND OWNERSHIP SIZES, FARMING ZONE 115 TABLE 16: MANSFIELD TRACKS, TRAILS AND BRIDLEWAYS 129 TABLE 17: SHIRE OF MANSFIELD COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE 137 Click here to enter text. v ABBREVIATIONS DELWP Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning ESO Environmental Significance Overlay FZ Farming Zone GBCMA Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority GRZ General Residential Zone GVW Goulburn Valley Water IBRA Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia MSS Municipal Strategic Statement MUZ Mixed Use Zone PPF Planning Policy Framework RLZ Rural Living Zone SLO Significant Landscape Overlay TCAC Taungurung Clans Aboriginal Corporation TZ Township Zone VHR Victorian Heritage Register VPO Vegetation Protection Overlay VPP Victoria Planning Provision Click here to enter text. vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Mansfield Shire is preparing a planning strategy for the municipality, Mansfield 2040. Development of Mansfield 2040 is a significant undertaking for the Shire and its communities. The Strategy will guide land use and development decisions across the municipality over the long term. Introduction Mansfield Shire’s population is growing, and its demographic profile is shifting.