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Sistemi Economici E Il Ruolo Della Tecnologia: Un'esplorazione Teorica SISTEMI ECONOMICI E IL RUOLO DELLA TECNOLOGIA: UN’ESPLORAZIONE TEORICA SULLA DINAMICA STRUTTURALE Autore: ANA DUEK DISSERTAZIONE PROPOSTA ALLA FACOLTÀ DI SCIENZE ECONOMICHE UNIVERSITÀ DELLA SVIZZERA ITALIANA LUGANO PER IL CONSEGUIMENTO DEL PH.D. IN SCIENZE ECONOMICHE Copyright © 2007 Giuria Direttore di tesi: Prof. Giorgio Tonella Revisore interno: Prof. Mauro Baranzini Revisore esterno: Prof. Heinrich Bortis Questa ricerca è stata svolta presso la Facoltà di Scienze Economiche dell’Università della Svizzera Italiana, Lugano. Versione finale: Ottobre 2007. ABSTRACT I ABSTRACT This research examines theoretically the problem of structural change. It is, in particular, an analysis of how economic systems and economic theory deal with structural change. The emphasis of the research is on three central topics: economic theory, systems theory and technological change. The particular focus of Part I is on features of economic structure definition, representation and methods. Part II deals with systems as abstract objects and system theory vis-à-vis with its structural endeavour, therefore concepts were presented to deal with changing systems. But this research also focuses its attention, in Part III, on the dynamic and evolutionary character of the particular technological changes and their interactions with economic systems. Two examples of technological innovation — Computer and the Internet — will be used to examine, in a historical framework, the core of the structural change. Based on economics and system theory, but with a multidisciplinary view, the present research combines the more traditional historic view with complexity science to achieve a more robust view of the economic system and its structural analysis. RINGRAZIAMENTI II RINGRAZIAMENTI Sono grata ai Professori Giorgio Tonella, Mauro Baranzini e Francisco Louçã per il loro brillante supporto accademico. La mia gratitudine va in modo particolare al direttore di tesi il Prof. Giorgio Tonella che mi ha guidato accuratamente nella stesura di questo lavoro. Ringrazio i correlatori di questa tesi il Prof. Mauro Baranzini per la riflessione e rigorosità teorica con cui ha condiviso la direzione della prima parte e il Prof. Francisco Louçã per aver condiviso la sua esperienza di ricerca oltre che per aver guidato la realizzazione della terza parte. La mia gratitudine anche: Ai membri della giuria e in particolare al Prof. Heinrich Bortis. Al Prof. Carlos Domingo per l’ininterrotta discussione critica e al Prof. Luigi Pasinetti per i consigli negli stadi embrionali della ricerca. Ai Professori Gianluca Colombo ed Erik Larsen per gli utili consigli, gli interessanti suggerimenti bibliografici e il costante incoraggiamento. Al Prof. Giovanni Ventimiglia per la discussione su materie filosofiche che hanno arricchito questo lavoro. Ai Professori Alastair Beattie e Simona Cain per le meticolose annotazioni linguistiche, la pazienza e l’incoraggiamento. Alla Biblioteca universitaria di Lugano e in particolare a Stefano Vizzola. A tutti coloro che, attraverso il loro sostegno, hanno condiviso la realizzazione del presente studio, in particolare, G. F. & M. Sangermani e Irma Tonella. Sono anche molto riconoscente a Matteo Tescari, Mattia Maffioretti e Matteo de Franceschi. Mia sincera gratitudine va rivolta pure a Domenico de Franceschi. Ed infine, speciale e profonda gratitudine a Jack Duek e S. & V. Duek. SOMMARIO III SOMMARIO ABSTRACT (p. I) RINGRAZIAMENTI (p. II) SOMMARIO (p. III) INTRODUZIONE (p. 1) PARTE 1 (p. 11) Status Quaestionis: LA STRUTTURA ECONOMICA E IL CAMBIAMENTO STRUTTURALE NELLA TEORIA ECONOMICA 1. Introduzione (p. 11) 2. La struttura economica e il cambiamento nell’analisi economico strutturale (p. 15) 2.1. Alcuni concetti di struttura usati nell’analisi economico strutturale (p. 15) 2.2. Metodi d’analisi della dinamica economica strutturale (p. 34) 2.3. Metodi d’analisi temporale (p. 35) 2.3.1. Metodi per l’integrazione delle attività economiche (p. 44) 3. La dinamica strutturale nella teoria economica: alcuni modelli (p. 52) 3.1. Lineamenti della dinamica strutturale nella teoria economica (p. 52) 3.2. I modelli dell’economia classica (p. 53) 3.3. I modelli multisettoriali (p. 73) 3.4. Analisi per sub-sistemi e l’integrazione verticale dei processi produttivi (p. 80) 3.5. Il progresso tecnico nelle teorie dello sviluppo economico e della crescita (p. 90) 4. Considerazioni conclusive (p. 98) PARTE 2 (p. 102) SULLA TEORIA DEI SISTEMI E SULLA DINAMICA ECONOMICA: LA DINAMICA ECONOMICA STRUTTURALE 5. Introduzione (p. 102) 6. Alcuni concetti della teoria di sistemi (p. 106) 6.1. Sui Sistemi (p. 106) 6.2. Sui Modelli (p. 117) 6.3. Sulla Struttura (p. 127) 7. Teoria di sistemi, verso un cambiamento di paradigma (p. 133) SOMMARIO IV 8. Sui sistemi economici (p. 143) 8.1. L’economia: Sistema Complesso (p. 143) 8.2. I sistemi ed il loro ambiente circondante (p. 153) 8.3. L’interazione sociale: la relazione tra il tutto e le parti (p. 168) 8.3.1. Processi di assembling e disassembling (p. 168) 8.3.2. Processi bottom-up e top-down process (p. 176) 9. I sistemi economici e il cambiamento strutturale (p. 194) 10. Considerazioni conclusive (p. 210) PARTE 3 (p. 213) TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC DYNAMICS 11. Introduction (p. 213) 12. The economics of technological change: an overview about the importance of sciences and technology for the economy and in economic theory. (p. 218) 13. Approaches for structural analysis: (p. 231) 13.1. Evolutionary economics (p. 232) 13.2. Economic cycles (long-waves) (p. 244) 14. Structural economic change and the role of technology (p. 259) 14.1. Technology and economic transformation (p. 259) 14.2. Evolving innovations: two examples (p. 264) 14.2.1. Computers (p. 264) 14.2.1.1. The beginnings of computers: counting and calculators (p. 264) 14.2.1.2. Computers organizations: stages of evolution (p. 270) 14.2.1.3. Some approaches and patterns of computers economic impact (p. 281) 14.2.2. The Internet (p. 298) 14.2.2.1. Behind the ARPANET: the emergence of the Internet (p. 298) 14.2.2.2. The Internet dimensions (p. 313) 14.2.2.3. Some patterns of Internet impact: the New economy, the Network Society, the Information Age. (p. 332) 15. Final Remarks (p. 346) CONCLUSIONI GENERALI E PROSPETTIVE FUTURE PER ULTERIORI RICERCHE (p. 351) REFERENZE BIBLIOGRAFICHE ED ELETTRONICHE (p. 362) APPENDICI (p. 380) ELENCO DEI GRAFICI E DELLE TABELLE V ELENCO DEI GRAFICI E DELLE TABELLE Elenco delle Figure Figura 1: Alcuni argomenti necessari per l'analisi economica strutturale. (p. 7) Figura 2: Modello di flusso circolare uniperiodale. (p. 45) Figura 3: Modello delle interdipendenze orizzontali con effetti distribuiti nella struttura temporale. (p. 46) Figura 4: Modello di analisi trasversale dei processi integrati verticalmente usato da Hicks (1973). (p. 47) Figura 5: Modello di integrazione verticale di sub-sistemi usato da Pasinetti (1981 e 1993). (p. 48) Figura 6: Diagramma causale del modello semplificato di Smith, nel diagramma le frecce rappresentano le relazioni funzionali in ogni unità di tempo. (p. 57) Figura 7: Diagramma causale del modello semplificato di Ricardo, nel diagramma frecce rappresentano le relazioni funzionali in ogni unità di tempo. (p. 60) Figura 8: Schema grafico delle nozioni del flusso circolare dell’economia di Quesnay. (p. 67) Figura 9: ‘piramide sociale’ di Marx (p. 68) Figura 10: Effetto del progresso tecnologico sulla produttività secondo il modello smithiamo e il modello marxista dell’economia. (p. 71) Figura 11: Rappresentazione del percorso temporale del flusso degli input e degli output in un processo produttivo. (p. 84) Figura 12: Relazione tra alcuni dei fattori che intervengono nella definizione della dinamica economica nel modello schumpeteriano. (p. 95) Figura 13: Circuito relazionale. (p. 108) Figura 14: Elementi basilari e le relazioni del processo di modellazione e simulazione. (p. 120) Figura 15: Corrispondenza tra sistema e modello. (p. 127) Figura 16: Circuiti positivi e negativi di primo e secondo ordine: alcuni scenari. (p. 159) Figura 17: Schema semplice di controllo (feedback). (p. 161) Figura 18: Sistemi di singoli livelli (single level systems). (p. 163) Figura 19: Sistemi multi-livello (multi-level systems). (p. 163) Figura 20: Organizzazione attiva o a forma di anello. (p. 166) Figura 21: Modello matematico della struttura. (p. 199) Figura 22: Tecniche per l’analisi sistemica. (p. 201) Figura 23: Propagazione del cambiamento. (p. 205) Figura 24: Il tutto e le parti. (p. 207) Figura 25: Adaptive Cycles. (p. 257) Figura 26: Moore’s Law. (p. 267) Figura 27: Computer industry evolution and competition. (p. 280) ELENCO DEI GRAFICI E DELLE TABELLE VI Figura 28: A technological discontinuity including its ‘minor’ discontinuities. (p. 284) Figura 29: Sources of competitive advantage. (p. 285) Figura 30: Major waves in computing. (p. 294) Figura 31: Map of ARPANET in 1971. (p. 300) Figura 32: Map of ARPANET in 1980. (p. 301) Figura 33: Geopraphic map of USENET sites and routes in 1986. (p. 303) Figura 34: Map of ARPANET in 1989. (p. 305) Figura 35: Internet history timeline. (p. 308) Figura 36: How the Internet influences industry structure. (p. 324) Elenco delle Tabelle Tabella 1: Tipi di struttura Sociale di Durkheim (p. 24) Tabella 2: Tavola input-output prezzi per quantità (p. 78) Tabella 3: Categorie fondamentali dei modelli (p. 123) Tabella 4: Formato per una descrizione informale di un modello (p. 126) Tabella 5: The information Age: Personal Computers per 1,000 people (p. 268) Tabella 6:
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