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A Consensus Proposal for a REVISED REGIONAL ORDER in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

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A Consensus Proposal for a REVISED REGIONAL ORDER in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia C O R P O R A T I O N A Consensus Proposal for a REVISED REGIONAL ORDER in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia CONTRIBUTORS Samuel Charap, Jeremy Shapiro, Alexandra Dienes, Sergey Afontsev, Péter Balás, Rodica Crudu, James Dobbins, Vasyl Filipchuk, Diana Galoyan, Ulrich Kühn, Andrei Popov, Yauheni Preiherman, Pernille Rieker, Nikolai Silaev, Olesya Vartanyan, Andrei Zagorski EDITORS Samuel Charap, Jeremy Shapiro, John Drennan, Oleksandr Chalyi, Reinhard Krumm, Yulia Nikitina, Gwendolyn Sasse For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/CF410 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0361-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Rick Penn-Kraus Cover image: Getty Images / erhui1979 Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Russia’s relations with the West are in deep turmoil. This turmoil has manifested itself in various ways, including alleged Russian interfer- ence in U.S. and European elections, tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions, and sanctions. These developments notwithstanding, the issue that originally sent the relationship off the rails and remains at the core of the broader dispute is the competition over Ukraine and the other in-between states: Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbai- jan. This contest has become a negative-sum game, benefiting none of the parties: As a result, the West and Russia now find themselves locked in a dangerous and damaging competition, while the states of the region remain, to varying degrees, unstable, unreformed, and rife with conflict. Despite the costs associated with the status quo, neither policy- makers nor the expert community have proffered ideas about how to revise the regional order—in a manner that might plausibly be accept- able to all concerned states—to achieve stability, address conflicts, and facilitate greater prosperity. The poisonous atmosphere in relations among the key states has made an official discussion nearly impossible, and it is equally difficult for individual researchers to offer alterna- tives that take into account the range of complex and often conflicting national perspectives. With support from Carnegie Corporation of New York and in partnership with the Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the RAND Corporation launched a project to fill this gap. To do so, we convened three repre- sentative working groups to devise alternative approaches to the three iii iv A Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia key elements of the dispute over the regional order: security architec- ture, economic integration, and regional conflicts. These groups of experts and former policy practitioners from the United States, the European Union, Russia, and the in-between states were tasked with finding mutually acceptable solutions to the current problems in these three domains. The results of their work are presented here. This project was conducted in the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of RAND’s National Security Research Division (NSRD). For more information on the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/ centers/isdp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ...............................................................vii Acknowledgments ............................................................... ix Abbreviations ..................................................................... xi CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Samuel Charap CHAPTER TWO Regional Security Architecture ................................................ 9 Jeremy Shapiro, James Dobbins, Yauheni Preiherman, Pernille Rieker, Andrei Zagorski The Status Quo and Its Shortcomings .........................................12 Proposal ............................................................................14 Proof of Concept: A Belarus Scenario ......................................... 28 Conclusion ........................................................................ 30 CHAPTER THREE Economic Integration ...........................................................33 Alexandra Dienes, Sergey Afontsev, Péter Balás, Rodica Crudu, Diana Galoyan Caught In-Between: Threats and Opportunities ............................. 34 The Status Quo .................................................................. 36 Proposal ........................................................................... 43 Conclusion .........................................................................51 v vi A Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia CHAPTER FOUR Regional Conflicts ...............................................................53 Samuel Charap, Vasyl Filipchuk, Ulrich Kühn, Andrei Popov, Nikolai Silaev, Olesya Vartanyan Interlinkages Between the Other Two Elements of the Regional Order Dispute and the Conflicts .................................................. 56 Regional Conflicts Go Beyond Geopolitics ................................. 60 Proposal, Part I: Conflict Management ....................................... 64 Proposal, Part II: Moving from Conflict Management Toward Settlement ...........................................................74 Proposal, Part III: Additional Incentives for Regional States and Entities to Engage ...........................................................76 Conclusion ........................................................................ 77 CHAPTER FIVE Summary: A Consensus Proposal for a Revised Regional Order .............................................................79 Samuel Charap APPENDIX Current Pain-Reduction Measures in the Region .........................89 Olesya Vartanyan, Andrei Popov, Nikolai Silaev References ....................................................................... 101 Author and Editor Biographies ............................................. 111 Figures and Tables Figures 1.1. Map of the Region .................................................... 4 3.1. A SWOT Analysis of the Economic Aspects of In-Between Status ...................................................35 3.2. In-Between States’ Exports to Russia and the EU as a Percentage of Total Exports, 2010 Versus 2018 ................. 38 3.3. In-Between States’ Imports from Russia and the EU as a Percentage of Total Imports, 2010 Versus 2018 ..................39 Tables 2.1. Summary of Proposed CSBMs to Complement the MSGs ............................................................ 23 4.1. Potential Pain-Reduction Measures for Regional Conflicts .................................................. 66 4.2. Potential CSBMs to Reduce Risks in Conflict Zones ...........70 5.1. Comparison of the Status Quo with Proposal for a Revised Regional Order .............................................83 5.2. Comparison of the Status Quo with the Proposed Revised Regional Order for the In-Between States ....................... 87 vii Acknowledgments We are grateful to Carnegie Corporation of New York for its continu- ing support for this project in its current and earlier phases, and to the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung’s Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe for its partnership. Additionally, we thank Lynn Davis and William Hill for their thorough reviews and helpful comments on the draft. ix Abbreviations CEPA Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CSBM confidence- and security-building measure CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization DCFTA Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement EAEU Eurasian Economic Union EU European Union EUMM European Union Monitoring Mission in Georgia FTA free trade area agreement IPRM Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism MSG multilateral security guarantee NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization OSCE Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe PKO peacekeeping operation PoC point of contact RSC regional security consultations SALW small arms and light weapons UN United Nations WTO World Trade Organization xi CHAPTER ONE Introduction Samuel Charap At the core of the heightened tensions between Russia and the West
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