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International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology (IJMET) Volume 10, Issue 02, February 2019, pp. 314–326, Article ID: IJMET_10_02_032 Available online at http://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJMET?Volume=10&Issue=2 ISSN Print: 0976-6340 and ISSN Online: 0976-6359

© IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed

INTERROGATING THE RELEVANCE OF THOMAS MALTHUS THEORY ON POPULATION AND THE CHALLENGES OF NIGERIA’S BOURGEONING POPULATION

Joseph Ibrahim Adama* Department of , Landmark University, Omu Aran, Kwara State, Nigeria

Jacob Audu Department of Political Science and International Studies, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria

Dominic Zann Agba Department of Economics, Landmark University, Omu Aran, Kwara State, Nigeria

Sunday Olabisi Adewara Department of Economics, Landmark University, Omu Aran, Kwara State, Nigeria. *corresponding author

ABSTRACT Issues of population explosion has evoked several images characterized by emotional, -laden and often paranoiac connotation that cannot be obviously ignored considering its threatening challenges. It is against the foregoing that this paper attempt to interrogate the relevance of Thomas Malthus theory on population and the challenges of the bourgeoning population explosion in Nigeria. The core objective of this paper is to investigate the relevance of the theory on Nigeria’s population. Other objectives are to ascertain the effects of the population explosion on the Nigerian urban areas; food security, crimes and security and poverty. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on an explanatory design and some empirical data generated through secondary sources and official documents were examined. The data were analysed using a descriptive method of analysis. The paper identified the relevance of Malthus theory on the bourgeoning population explosion on the following key areas: Food Security; Poverty Rate; Urbanization; crimes and Security Threat. After examination of official documents and secondary data, the paper concludes that population explosion has continued to undermine the achievement of development’s goals in Nigeria. A population growing faster than the of modern and services not only frustrates development goals; it undermines the credibility of promises made in the

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name of development and political will to pay the of . The paper among other things recommends for the promotion of mechanized farming; engage public private partnership for and financing of agricultural and housing; and the era where population increase is seen by many in Nigeria as the key to the control of political power and resources should be discarded and a proactive approach adopted. Key words: Crimes, Food Security, Population, Security, Poverty and Urbanization. Cite this Article: Joseph Ibrahim Adama, Jacob Audu, Dominic Zann Agba and Sunday Olabisi Adewara, Interrogating the Relevance of Thomas Malthus Theory on Population and the Challenges of Nigeria‟s Bourgeoning Population, International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology, 10(2), 2019, pp. 314–326 http://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJMET?Volume=10&Issue=2 1. INTRODUCTION At the close of World II, Professor Frank Notesten had foreseen a of three billion by the year 2000. In fact, the three billion mark was passed by 1960. The world entered the 21st century with over 6billion people. By 2011, the world‟s population was estimated to be 7 billion (Babare, 2011).Today, there are about 7.2 billion people in the world. Nigeria‟s population according to NPC (as cited by Osibanjo, 2018) has grown by nearly 50 million in 12 years. The complexity of the challenges of population explosion was aptly captured by the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA) when it stated that: The complex ways in which population variables interact, reciprocally, with socio- variables and to show how action programmes can be mounted to integrate population activities with health care, educational, rural development, organization of agriculture, industrial development and other programmes. Hence, issues of population explosion has evoked several images characterized by emotional, value-laden and often paranoiac connotation that cannot be obviously ignored considering its threatening challenges. Population has come to be conceptualized as actors, processes, objects of development planning, obstacles to successful investment, sources of qualified manpower and threats to the world‟s ecosystem. Population discourse has become a variable analogous to , labour, technology or infrastructure in a world system. Since 1949, development discourse on population has assumed an epistemological status especially in public policy statement as it relates to birth control, women‟s status and ecology. Consequently, the term population continues to be used in public policy statements as the equivalent to a concrete social collectivity that designate the inhabitants of a country, a region or a continent. Nigeria is often said to be the giant of Africa because of its enormous natural resource endowments and human population but with the growing rate of population explosion, our number may be more of a liability than asset when compared with the quality of education available to the youth and health facilities to the population. Over the last 50 years, the Nigeria‟s urban population has grown at an average annual growth rate of more than 6.5 per cent without commensurate increase in social amenities and infrastructure. A huge population that is largely not educated, healthy and productive would pose more of challenges than opportunities. It is against the foregoing that this paper attempt to interrogate the relevance of Thomas Malthus theory on population and the challenges of the bourgeoning population explosion in Nigeria. The core objective of this paper is to investigate the relevance of the thrust of Robert Malthus theory on population. Other objectives are to ascertain the effects of

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Interrogating the Relevance of Thomas Malthus Theory on Population and the Challenges of Nigeria‟s Bourgeoning Population the population explosion on the Nigerian urban areas; food security, crimes and security and poverty.

1.1. Contextual Discourse in Existing Literature on Population Explosion Conceptually, the concept of population evokes images of an explosion, mainly of uneducated Third World people, in countries that cannot repay their debts (Duden, 1992, p.146). It also evokes the notion of pressure which pushes people beyond their borders and to camps. Population evokes anger at irresponsible procreation, insufficient funding for birth control programmes, and against the Catholic Church for opposing contraception and abortion. Feminists‟ scholars also stress that population and population related issues will continue to remain a problem as long as its origin is not seen from the perspective of the exclusion of women from development process. To the Ecologists, they tried to connect population alarming and with the corresponding carrying capacity of the planet. Paul Ehrlich (as cited in Duden, 1992.p.153) for instance noted that the earth‟s carrying capacity was endangered by population growth. Consequently, the hope of development was overshadowed by the fear of global disaster. It is against this background that population explosion in the 1970s was referred to as a new epidemic All these have increasingly triggered the need to interrogate Malthus Theory on population and the challenges of population explosion in contemporary Nigerian state. Population has therefore come to evoke something threatening, something which casts a shadow over the future and something which in the Northern latitudes looks yellow or brown (Duden, 1992, p.146). Population discourse has passed through three distinct phases or periods which gives consideration to real people but it was only in the third stage, during the mid-1970s that population growth came to be seen as one among many interrelated processes and treated as an endogenous factor of the developing system. During the 1950s, for the first time, over population came to be understood as an imminent threat but it was given strong backing in 1973, when George Bush, the then U.S. Representative to the United Nations declared that: “today, the population problem is no longer a private matter…it commands the attention of national and international leaders”(p.150). In the same vein, the Club of Rome published a work “” which popularized the idea of the world as a system whose survival was threatened (p.153). Paul Ehrlich (as cited in Duden, 1992) stated that “The battle to feed all humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo -hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash program embarked upon…these programmes will only provide a stay of execution unless they are accompanied by determined and successful efforts at population control. The birth rate must be brought into balance with the death rate or mankind will breed itself into oblivion…population control is the only answer. Theoretically, population grow, consume, pollute, and need, demand; hence, become object that can be acted upon, controlled, developed and limited. As such, Classical Political like Thomas Malthus attempt to demonstrate that the wealth and power of the state depend on the number (as it focuses on the importance of enumeration as a basis of a government bureaucracy) and character of its subjects According to Malthus (1798), population increases in a geometrical ratio, subsistence in an arithmetical ratio. Population, as Duden agues has a special status. It does not aggregate things, but people. It does not reduce things to dollars, but persons to borderless entities that can be managed as characterless classes that reproduce, pollute, produce or consume, and for the common good, call for control (1992,p.149).

1.3. Theorizing Robert Malthus Theory on Population

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Joseph Ibrahim Adama, Jacob Audu, Dominic Zann Agba and Sunday Olabisi Adewara

Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834 was a son of an English gentleman Daniel Malthus, born in Rookery, England. He studied Philosophy, Mathematics and Theology at Cambridge. In 1805, he was appointed a Professor of History and Political a clergy man and a Mathematician. He was not the first to write on exponential growth in population and its consequences on humanity but he was first to knitted the scattered ideas into a full subject and was the first to write a treatise on population. People, according to him, unless checked in some way doubled their numbers in every quarter of a century. He was able to synthesize the growth of population with the effects of the same; the relationship between population and the means of subsistence was put in the forefront, and the conclusion was drawn to a sufficient degree in quantitative terms. Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) one of the classical political economists looked at economic realities with greater concern especially with the severe impact of the rising food . He was concerned with the imbalance between the population and the means of subsistence. Malthus was known for his contributions on population and the theory of economic crisis. His contributions are encapsulated in the following works: I. An on the Principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvements of Society, with Remarks on the of Mr. Godwin, Mr. Condorcet and other writers (1798). II. An Essay on the Principle of Population; or, A View of the Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness; with an Inquiry into Our Prospects Respecting the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils which it occasion (1803). III. Principles of , considered with a view to their practical application (1820). Thomas Robert Malthus was able to synthesize the growth of population with the effects of the same as it relates to the means of subsistence. Malthusian theory was developed as a result of the rapid population growth rate (in geometric ratio) and diminishing return if left unchecked. Thus Malthus as cited by Hanson, 1977 declared that: The best lands are taken up first, then the next best, then the inferior, at last the worst; at each stage the amount of food produced is less than before. If existing cultivated land were farmed intensively, the same inexorable law will operate and again there will be diminishing return. Consequently, it would be impossible to maintain expansion of food production to keep pace with increasing population as is popularly called emphasizes that the poverty of the popular masses in a bourgeois society is engendered not by the social system, but by the rapid population growth and relatively slow increase in the means of subsistence. Malthus contended that there is something natural which forced the increase in population at a faster rate than the increase in food supply. A classic example is the sex instinct which is very powerful in human beings and such increase procreation in geometric progression or compound rate unless checked by moral restraints. He also argued that the means of subsistence, which are equated with supply of food, and which are extracted from soil, cannot increase that fast. He was very emphatic that means of subsistence could, at most, increase in arithmetic progression. Hence population was bound to outstrip the supply of means of subsistence. Malthus theory of population remained a foreboding of a gloomy future for mankind and it is claimed that his book could well be entitled “An Essay on the Causes of the Poverty of Nations”. He saw poverty as an inevitable result of rapid population growth. Thomas Malthus is of the view that there is only one way to overcoming this disparity-to keep the population growth at zero or under it. Malthusianism also further added that the world‟s growing

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Interrogating the Relevance of Thomas Malthus Theory on Population and the Challenges of Nigeria‟s Bourgeoning Population population cannot be provided with the necessary food and so poverty is a natural occurrence especially in the economically less developed countries like Nigeria.

1.4. Trends and Characteristics of Nigeria’s Bourgeoning Population The total surface area of Nigeria is approximately 923, 768 Sq km. In combination with the nearly 200 million person, the density of Nigeria is around 212.04 individuals per Sq km. Nigeria has the highest population of any African nation. According to CBN (2000), Nigeria is blessed with wide expanse of land of 98.321 million hectares, out of which 75.3% is arable; 21 billion barrels of crude oil reserve with 112 trillion cubic feet estimated gas reserve(associated and non-associated) tar sand deposit estimated at 31 cubit barrels of oil equivalent. Other available resources include iron ore, coal, limestone, columbite, gold marble at different locations of the country but tragically, the political economy environment of Nigeria cannot translate these resources into quality life to avert the imminent doom as predicted by Thomas Malthus. In 1960 when Nigeria got her independence from the British colonial master, Nigeria recorded an estimated population of 45.2 million people. Today, Nigeria‟s current population is 197,686,886 as of Saturday November 17, 2018 based on the latest United Nations estimates. Nigeria‟s population is therefore equivalent to 2.57 of the total world population. Nigeria ranks number 7 in the list of countries by population. The trend in Nigeria‟s population indicates that Nigeria is one of the fastest growing countries in the world. The life expectancy in Nigeria is unfortunately the lowest in all West Africa. The average life expectancy is around 54.5 years of age, with men living an average of 53.7 years and women 55.4years. This is attributed to the fact that Nigeria has a lot of health related issues. Nigeria also has a high child and maternal mortality rate. It is estimated that one out of every five children that are born in Nigeria will die before they reach the age of 5 due to many health risks in Nigeria. A Nigerian woman‟s chances of death during pregnancy or childbirth is 1 in 13. The components of population change has shown one birth in every 4 seconds; one death in every 14 seconds and one migrants every 9 minutes. On the quality of life, in terms of access to clean drinking water, 68.5% have access to improved means of access while 31.5 still struggle get clean water. 29 % of the entire population have improved sanitation access as compared to 71 that are still struggling. National literacy rate is 59.6%. Nigeria‟s high population growth rate is essentially due to its persistent high fertility rate of 5.3 children per woman and decreasing death rate from 27 to 15 per 1000 persons (UN, 2010). Demographically, the Nigerian population is relatively young with about 43.99 % of the population as at 2017constituting between the age structures of 0-14years. The Median age for both males and females is actually18.4 years. They are, according to estimates, about 1.04 males to every 1 female in the country. According to the UN Project, the overall population of Nigeria will reach about 398 million by the end of 2050. But according to the census Bureau of the United States, the population of Nigeria will be 402 million people by the 2050. According to the World Population Data (2018), the expected birth per day will be 20,211 and death per day at 6,372. With those figures, Nigeria will become the third most populated country in the entire world, surpassing the U.S. in the near future. It therefore suffice to state as Duden (1992,p.151) put it, unlike plagues of the Dark Ages, or contemporary disease we do not yet understand, the modern plague of over population is soluble by means we have discovered and with resources we possess. The tables below helps to show the trend and characteristics of Nigeria‟s bourgeoning population

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Joseph Ibrahim Adama, Jacob Audu, Dominic Zann Agba and Sunday Olabisi Adewara

Table 1: Nigeria‟s Population Distribution

DENSITY POPN GROWTH SN YEAR POPULATION MALE/ FEMALE % KM2 RANK RATE% M=50.68 1 2018 195,875,237 212.04 7 2.61 F=49.32 M=50.67 2 2017 190,886,311 206.64 7 2.63 F=49.33 M5=0.66 3 2016 185,989,640 201.34 7 2.65 F=49.34 M=50.65 4 2015 181,181,744 196.13 7 2.70 F=49.35 M=50.58 5 2010 158,578,261 171.66 7 2.68 F=49.42 M=50.50 6 2005 138,939,478 150.41 9 2.58 F=49.50 M=50.42 7 2000 122,352,009 132.45 10 2.52 F=49.58 M=50.35 8 1995 108,011,465 116.92 10 2.54 F=49.65 M=50.31 9 1990 95,269,988 103.13 10 2.64 F=49.69 M=50.26 10 1985 83,613,300 90.51 10 2.62 F=49.74 11 1980 73,460,724 M=50.27 F=49.73 79.52 11 3.00 M=50.07 12 1975 63,373,572 68.60 11 2.51 F=49.93 13 1970 55,981,400 M=50.01 F=49.99 60.60 11 2.23 14 1965 50,127,214 M=49.96 F=50.04 54.26 13 2.12 M=49.91 15 1960 45,137,812 48.86 13 1.90 F=50.09 M=49.89 16 1955 41,085,565 44.48 13 1.65 F=50.11 M=49.89 17 1950 37,859,744 40.98 13 0.00 F=50.11 Source: NBS, World population Prospects (2017, Revision), United Nations population estimates and projections

Table 2: Projections of Nigeria population by year from 2020-2050

DENSITY POPULATION GROWTH SN YEAR POPULATION MALE/FEMALE% KM2 RANK RATE% 1 2020 206,152,701 50.70/49.30 223.17 7 0.00 2 2025 233,691,888 50.73/49.27 252.98 5 2.54 3 2030 264,067,527 50.75/49.25 285.86 5 2,47 4 2035 297,323,173 50.76/49.24 321.86 5 2.40 5 2040 333,172,092 50.75/49.25 360.67 4 2.30 6 2045 371,119,359 50.74/49.26 401.75 4 2.18

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Interrogating the Relevance of Thomas Malthus Theory on Population and the Challenges of Nigeria‟s Bourgeoning Population

7 2050 410,637,868 50.72/49.28 444.52 3 2.04 Source: Worldpopulationreview.com. Accessed on 20/11/18

Table 3. Nigeria‟s Age Structure, 2017 TOTAL AGE SN SEX FIGURE POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS RANGE IN % MALE=41,506,288 THE EARLY 1 0-14 42.54 FEMALE=39,595,720 SCHOOLING AGE MALE=19,094,899 THE EARLY 2 15-24 19.61 FEMALE=18,289,513 WORKING AGE MALE=30,066,196 3 25-54 30.74 PRIME WORKING LIFE FEMALE=28,537,846 MALE=3,699,947 MATURE WORKING 4 55-64 3.97 FEMALE=3,870,080 LIFE 65 YEAS MALE=2825,134 5 AND 3.13 ELDERLY FEMALE=3,146,638 ABOVE Source: World population Prospects (2017, Revision), In 2016, Nigeria population was estimated at 185,989,640 million with widening youth bulge with more than half of its population under 30 years. Currently, Nigeria‟s population is estimated at 195,875,237 and it is expected to explode to 410,637,868 by 2050 (Worldpopulationreview.com.). According to the World Population Prospects report (2017), of the nine countries expected to contribute half of the world‟s population from 2017 to 2050, Nigeria comes second after India and has the worse real GDP growth rate. Uncontrolled population is a real problem in the context of one earth. The Extremist argument attributes all the world‟s economic and social evils – poverty, hunger, environmental degradation – to population explosion. And Empirical research reveals that it instigates slowdown, penury, food crisis, poor health conditions, increases in legal and illegal migration and environmental challenges. The world‟s population of 7.6 billion with a projection over 9.8 billion by 2050 calls for global concerns especially in Africa from where most of the increase would come. Nigeria represents 2.5 per cent of the world‟s population; No wonder there is for everything- from medical to security services, to transport, schools and jobs. We are therefore increasingly losing the ability to feed even half of our population.

2. Relevance of Thomas Malthus theorization on the Population Explosion in Nigeria The geographical area of Nigeria is by nature limited to 923,768 sq. km which represents a fixed factor and the population which is varying in an increasing order as shown in the results presented is the variable factor. When a variable factor like population growth is put on a fixed factor that is already known as the geographical area of Nigeria, then it can be said that the fixed factor will suffer more.

2.1. Nigeria’s Population Explosion and Food Security

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Joseph Ibrahim Adama, Jacob Audu, Dominic Zann Agba and Sunday Olabisi Adewara

Nigeria, based on the U.S Energy Information Administration (2015) has the largest natural gas reserves in Africa and is the continent‟s second largest oil exporter Nigeria‟s population is currently 192million and this figure is expected to explode to over 400 million by 2050 which is about 300% growth from what it was in 1960 (Behnassi and Yaya, 2013). The present Nigeria‟s land size and usage is totaled 92.4 million hectares (924000km2) of which land and water respectively encompass 79.4million and 13.0 million hectares. Agricultural land covers about 78% of Nigeria‟s total land area equivalent to 71.9 million hectares. Disappointingly, only about 28.2 million of the agricultural land is actually being used or cultivated with a bush fallow and crude system of farming used such that land is left idle and the soil to naturally regenerate its fertility over a period of time. Omorogiuwa, Zivkovic and Ademoh (2014) had noted that about 75% of Nigeria‟s land is suitable for agriculture, but only 40% is actually cultivated. In addition, out of 2 million of land estimated to be irrigable, only 7% or about 220,000 is actually irrigated. This reflects a gross disproportionate utilization of agricultural land when compared to the rate of population growth. Nigeria is also blessed with a very large and diverse and rich vegetation capable of supporting large population of livestock and has estimated surface water volume of about 267.7billion cubic meter and underground water of about 57.9 billion cubic meters Adekunle and Fatunbi, (2014) but tragically, not put to adequate use. Agriculture has remained a major contributor to Nigeria‟s economy since independence until the discovery and exportation of oil in commercial quantity, however, it still remain the largest non-oil contributor to the national economy, accounting for 41.84% of the GDP in 2017 and employing almost 70 of the national labour force but the farmers are largely small scale subsistence farmers totaling about 14 million with an average farm size of 1 hectare in the South and 3 hectares in the Northern part of Nigeria. Agriculture considered as the citadel of Malthus theory was the leading sector in the 1960s before the discovery and predominance of Petro dollar economy which was characterized by decline in agriculture as a result of low investment and low level of technology. According to the UN Report (2001), Nigeria is richly endowed with cultivatable land mass of 71.2 million hectares out of the available 98.3 million hectares about 47% is cultivated and employs 70% of the country‟s labour force. But as Ukeji (2001) has argued, majority of the farmers are still involved in using rudimentary and crude technology of cutlasses and hoes. In a similar development, Ango (2002) remarked that “ harvest technology is so primitive that the annual losses to harvest amount to 25 million metric tons of agricultural products with estimated value put at 500 billion exchange rate. Thus, Avan and Uza, (2002) notes that domestic food production continues to lag behind the food needs of the population. This has aggravated poverty level in Nigeria. The poverty of the popular masses and the suffering it entails, as Volkov (1985, p.210) put it are the result of population growth in geometrical progression, while the means of subsistence grow in arithmetical. Consequently, as poverty does not prevent births; it only increases child mortality. Food is the most basic of all human survival needs. The African Food Security Briefs (AFSB, 2014) estimated that approximately one out of every person in the Sub Saharran Africa is hungry and in some cases undernourished. The rural areas have become more vulnerable to malnutrition, erratic supply of food items, unaffordable food costs, low quality food and sometimes complete lack of food. This is even more prevalent in many parts of northern Nigeria. Failure to ensure food security has resulted in many social problems including civil unrest and riots in many major cities of the world.

2.2. Population Growth and Poverty Rate

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Interrogating the Relevance of Thomas Malthus Theory on Population and the Challenges of Nigeria‟s Bourgeoning Population There have been large scale poverty in Nigeria over the years to the extent that Nigeria is recently said to be the world capital of poverty estimated to be housing 40% world poor people. Majority of Nigerians live below $1 per day; with Nigeria been rated among the list of 15 places with worse poverty indices in the world. The 2015 Global Hunger ranked Nigeria 40th out of 79 nations while the UNDP (2017) Human Development Index placed Nigeria 152nd out of 188 countries. There is a consistent rise in population and in poverty rate. This is reflected in the table below.

Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Popn in 64.7 75.5 86.7 96.8 115.2 133.5 158.8 181,181,744 million Poverty% 28.3 46.3 42.7 65.6 70.4 54.4 54.0 NA Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin, 1999; 2003; 2004; 2011 and 2012 The implication of poverty which entails lack of basic necessities of life is that people in poverty will not only be restive and agitative but will also be less productive as they lack the ability to perform at optimal levels of their capacity. The prevalence of poverty and hunger is more pronounced in the rural areas where up to 80% of the population survive on less than one dollar per day. The situation in the rural areas is compounded by inadequate post-harvest technology and poor distribution of food. In addition, Magashi (2007) opined that with rapid population growth, there will be fewer spaces of education and rapid urban growth will create concentration of unemployed youths and that on its own is a risk factor for civil conflicts, increase in sexual activities through prostitution, sexual harassment, assault, incest and rape. All these would consequently affect negatively on Nigeria‟s economy, quality of life and even sustainable development. In the health sector, malaria that has been totally banished in some parts of the world is responsible, according to UNICEF (2009) as the cause of about 250,000 deaths among children annually and about 66% of those who visit the hospital and clinics have reported cases of malaria in Nigeria. The developmental challenge posed by Nigeria‟s population explosion as envisaged by Malthusian theorization would have been adequately addressed with responsible government and responsive policy mechanisms. But that has not been the case due poor governance, lack of commitment and political will by successive leadership especially since independence. Government policies and expenditures are more of avenues for primitive accumulation using the state power and its apparatuses. For instance, several governmental agricultural programmes targeted at domestic food sufficiency such as River Basin Development Authorities, Agricultural Development Projects, Green Revolution, Operation Feed the Nation, etc, were undermined largely due to lack of political will and commitment of our political leadership. Not less than 86.9 million Nigerian population representing above 50% is living in extreme poverty and surviving on less than a dollar($1) per day becoming the number one country with extreme poor people in the world overtaking India as the country with the most extreme poor people in the world, and food insecurity prevalence is rising(Vanguard Nigeria, 2018; Asaleye et al., 2018). As Todaro and Smith (2006) put it; “It is not numbers per se or parental irrationality that is at the root of the LDC „population problem‟. Rather, it is the pervasiveness of absolute poverty and low levels of living that provide the economic rationale for large families and burgeoning populations. And it is the effects or negative social of these private parental decisions that provide the strictly economic justification (in terms of „ failure‟ argument) for government intervention in population matters”. The overall implications of this

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Joseph Ibrahim Adama, Jacob Audu, Dominic Zann Agba and Sunday Olabisi Adewara growth on the living standards, resources use and the environment will continue to change the Nigerian landscape for a very long period of time if nothing is done to checkmate the rapid population growth. It is more of a time bomb that may threaten even the very existence of the Nigerian state. These effects are presently felt most especially in energy , carbon emissions, air pollution and human congestion as it put more pressure on the resources and its use with dangerous health hazards on humanity.

2.3. Population Explosion and Urbanization The world‟s developing countries, not long ago predominantly rural, will probably be half urban within a decade and nearly 60%urban by 2030. In 1960, Casablanca (Morocco) and Cairo (Egypt) were the only cities in Africa with populations of more than one million. By 1983, about nine cities exceeded that size with Lagos population expected to have a population of nearly 25million by 2015, making it perhaps the world‟s largest mega city. According to UNDP Human Development Report (1998), Lagos population which was estimated to be about 10, 287,000 is expected to explode to 24,640,000. Massive population explosion obviously pose daunting challenges to urban housing, sanitation, education and transportation needs. Approximately 50% of Nigeria‟s population are urban dwellers in 2010; 50.3% in 2018 and by 2050, it will rise up to 69.9. (CIA Worldfactbook, January, 2018).Most of the population is a young population with 42.54% between the ages of 0-14 with a high dependency ratio of the country at 88.2%. Urbanization which results in rural-urban migration plays key roles in the emerging food insecurity in Nigeria. According to Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO, 2015; Adama et al. 2018), by year 2050, 70% of the world population is expected to be living in cities. Consequently, agricultural production will be disrupted thereby increasing the food insecurity. Explosion in population growth without a commensurate increase in agricultural production has increased the demand for food products thereby causing severe food insecurity which affects food, the basic of all human needs. For the foreseeable future, the shrinking state sector offers little relief for the growing number of urban job seekers. Of all the challenges confronting urban poor, none is more serious than finding adequate housing. Housing is the Achilles heels of most developing nations. Even though most of them have made remarkable strides in reducing infant mortality and in lengthening the span of life, the population explosion that followed could not be matched with the required investment to house the bourgeoning multitudes. With many metropolitan areas doubling in size, private sector housing cannot possibly expand fast enough to meet the need of the teeming population. This is been compounded by the fact that new homes apartment houses built for sale or rental privately are designed for the middle and upper classes, since low income housing is not profitable enough to recoup and recover their investment. In all, the total number of shanty down residents, slum dwellers and homeless account for over half the population of third world cities (Handelman, 2005,p.177). Political leaders and government planners are therefore confronted with how to provide city dwellers with needed jobs, housing, sanitation and other essential services, while also protecting them from crime. With government rolling back roles in the age of , associated with structural adjustment policies, larger proportion of the population is exposed to the vagaries and risk of this bourgeoning population explosion. Unlike the population growth experienced in the West in the 19th century, especially in Europe and North America where their urban population explosion occurred amidst the era of unprecedented industrialization and economic growth and with modern coming of age, which could accommodate the indeed needed wave of immigrant labours; in contrast, urban population in developing countries like Nigeria is

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Interrogating the Relevance of Thomas Malthus Theory on Population and the Challenges of Nigeria‟s Bourgeoning Population accompanied with an era of deindustrialization due to neoliberal policies and reforms thereby failing to provide sufficient to the growing urban work force.

2.4. Population Explosion and Security Threat Another challenge confronting population explosion in the developing countries is the rising crime. Even though as in developed countries, crimes origins lie in poverty, discrimination, income inequality, inadequate schools, broken families, its victims are to be found in all social classes. However, throughout the world, the urban poor contribute disproportionally to both criminal activity and its victims. “The confluence of poverty, inequality and social decay helps explain why violent crime rate in Africa and America are generally substantially higher than in western Europe, Japan and other economically advanced nations” (Handelman, 2005, p.182). Population explosion in Nigeria is a time bomb as most of these insurgent groups have a pool to recruit for their terrorist activities thereby posing a security threat to the political, economic, and social and even the corporate existence of the Nigerian state. The age structure of Nigeria‟s bourgeoning population affects the nation‟s political and socio-economic issues as countries with young populations(high percentage under age15) need to invest more in schools; while countries with older population(high percentage ages 65and above) need to invest more in the health sector. The age structure can also be used to help predict potential political issues. For instance, rapid growth of a young adult population unable to find employment can lead to unrest as there is a ready pool to be recruited for political, social and religious unrest as experienced in the insurgency and militancy in different part of Nigeria especially since the return to civil rule in 1999. 3. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Given development and the consequent rapid reduction in infant and puerperal mortality, it can be concluded that population explosion has continued to undermine the achievement of development‟s goals. This paper conclude that high population explosion creates faster than jobs increase, the number of mouths to be fed faster than the production capacity of rice paddies, squatters faster than people housed in modern facilities, excrement faster than sewers can be built. A population growing faster than the output of modern not only frustrates development goals; it undermines the credibility of promises made in the name of development and political will to pay the price of progress. For an economically backward country like Nigeria, the danger of population explosion is more real and apparent that the state /government actions especially in terms of compulsory education at all levels would be needed and through some deliberate government policy. Hence, Malthus theory is still relevant and applicable under his assumed conditions. For too many Nigerians, life is a Hobbesian, zero-sum game that adds up to an aggressive, predatory system of survival of the fittest. Nigeria is a place where life is too often a matter of who can intimidate whom. Indeed, war, crime and thuggery are the province of young males, and Nigeria‟s population is composed of many of them. For Nigerian politics at the highest levels is as predatory as life on the street. Therefore, it has become inevitable that a balance be struck and maintained between the numbers and means through preventive checks. The paper therefore recommends the followings: 1. Unchecked population has degenerating consequences for sustainable living. A concerted government effort on population is inevitable for a country like Nigeria where half of the population exists below the poverty threshold. These family planning advocacies alone are obviously ineffective. Abuja, For instance, has not successfully implemented family planning programs to reduce and space births because of a lack of political will, government financing, and the availability and

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Joseph Ibrahim Adama, Jacob Audu, Dominic Zann Agba and Sunday Olabisi Adewara

affordability of services and products, as well as a cultural preference for large families. Increased educational attainment, especially among women, and improvements in health care are needed to encourage and to better enable parents to opt for smaller families. A more stringent measure is long overdue at all levels of government. 2. Promotion of mechanized farming. Ojo and Adebayo (2012) noted that despite the use of indigenous Crop Rotation Production (CRP) system in Africa, Asia and Latin Americas, food insecurity has been on the rise as these techniques are not enough to meet the demand of the fast growing populations. There is need for mechanization of agriculture in Nigeria to improve production through the use of equipment, machineries and implements. 3. There is need to engage public private partnership for investment and financing of agricultural productivity and housing development at a moderate government controlled cost. 4. Economic marginalization and poverty in sub Saharan Africa, especially Nigeria, were the major causes of the Boko Haram insurgency. Hence, Sanusi, (2018) argues that Boko Haram crisis will be a child‟s play in the next 20years if strong economy is not provided, and demographic explosion is not addressed in northern Nigeria. 5. Finally, cue should be taken from China and other countries like Russia, Hungary, Estonia etc with negative population growth rates, in trying to address her rapid population growth. Drastic measures are needed to solve this eminent time bomb that is fast eating its way like a cankerworm into the potential existence of Nigeria as one of the most domineering nations in Africa and the world at large. The era where population increase is seen by many in Nigeria as the key to the control of political power and resources should be discarded and a proactive approach adopted. REFERENCES

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