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Home , Thomas Robert Malthus

WHERE WOULD SOCIAL SCIENCE BE WITHOUT MATHS?

Malthus posited the Nightingale believed Galton’s work on Durkheim is Rowntree’s statistical George Gallup embarrassed Fogel used computer Goldthorpe has contributed Wilkinson and hypothesis that unchecked statistical data could be used human intelligence considered a father revelations about urban and the leading US pollster, the technology to calculate to the understanding of Pickett have shown always as powerful arguments for sought to separate of sociology. He rural poverty exposed the Literary Digest. He that railroads contributed social mobility. The well- that in more equal exceeds the growth of the medical reform. the sheep from the discovered collective failings of . knew his rivals’ use far less to the growth in the established Goldthorpe societies, such as means of subsistence. goats and sparked the tendencies toward of phone listings and US than had been class schema is a standard Japan, people are ideas of the eugenics suicide and drew car registrations thought. approach to describing happier and movement. He was theoretical conclusions would skew its different social classes. healthier. heavily influenced on its social causes. sample toward the by his cousin Charles wealthy. Darwin.

1662 1798 1801 1835 1855 1869 1897 1901 1936 1964 1980 1991 2009 John Graunt, a Thomas Robert Malthus First comprehensive Adolphe Quetelet Florence Nightingale’s Francis Galton’s Emile Durkheim Seebohm Rowntree’s Gallup poll accurately Robert Fogel’s Railroads John Goldthorpe Cathie Marsh and The Spirit Level by merchant, publishes publishes his on census in Britain. publishes A Theory of ‘coxcomb’ pie chart Hereditary Genius publishes his monograph Poverty: A study of Town calls US election for and American Economic publishes Social Mobility colleagues publish The Richard Wilkinson Natural and Politial Population, drawing Man and devises Social shows the number investigates whether on suicide. Life was to influence Franklin Delano Growth, heralds the and Class Structure in Case for Samples of and Kate Pickett uses Observations Made attention to the potential Mechanics. of soldiers who died human intelligence is much subsequent Roosevelt (above). rise of , the Modern Britain. Anonymised Records statistics from around the Upon the Bills of dangers of population of wounds, disease or passed down through research. systematic application wins from the 1991 Census world to explore the link Mortality. He produced growth. other causes during the families. In the late of economic theory and Nobel Prize for creating and open the way for a between inequality and a primitive life table, Crimean . 1860s, Galton invented quantitative methods to computer models of new strand of reasearch, social problems. and can be seen as the ‘correlation’ and . national such as Finney and father of insurance ‘regression’. which can estimate the Simpson’s Sleepwalking mathematics. impact of policy changes. to Segregation? (2009). nation had to balance ‘the power to produce data and organised a record keeping nutritional needs, food consumed, health to a hypothetical one in which correctly predicted that the demand for Landmarks in and the will to consume’. Known as ‘Parson system. Her calculations showed that Emile Durkheim and housing. The book illustrated the transportation infrastructure was limited Cathie Marsh consumer that had been unmet Selected references Malthus’, he bequeathed us the adjective improved sanitary methods decreased the French social scientist (1858-1917) failings of the capitalist system and argued to wagons, canals and rivers. The difference British quantitative sociologist during the war, combined with the WHERE WOULD statistics in social ‘Malthusian’, and helped to earn number of deaths. that new measures were needed to in cost attributable to railroads was only (1951-1993) purchasing power of returning soldiers, General the reputation as ‘the dismal science’ Nightingale created graphical n his youth Durkheim became overcome the problems of , about one per cent. This conclusion made a would prevent a depression. Encyclopedia Britannica sciences because his argument went against popular representations of her statistical data convinced that advances in science did old-age and ill-health. Poverty: A Study of controversial name for cliometics. s a leading member of the Economic His earliest models were built on the www.britannica.com ideas about . which she called Polar Area Diagrams, or Inot necessarily lead to social progress. Town Life did much to help those who went and Social Research Council Census work of Jan Tinbergen (1903-1994), a University of York, Life and Work of SOCIAL SCIENCE BE Some leading Malthus has been criticised for failing to ‘coxcombs’. They showed that deaths in the In his first major work,The Division of on to build the foundations of the welfare AWorking Group, Cathie Marsh was Dutch who pioneered Statisticians handle his factual and statistical materials British field hospitals reached a peak Labour in Society, he introduced the state. John Goldthorpe instrumental in persuading the government macroeconomic mathematical modelling. www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/ figures with sufficient critical or statistical rigour. during January 1855, when 2,761 soldiers concept of ‘anomie’, a personal sense of British sociologist (born 1935) to make census data available to lifework WITHOUT MATHS? Later, the agricultural revolution increased died of contagious diseases, 83 from rootlessness fostered by the absence of researchers. The Case for Samples of The MacTutor History of Mathematics the and made wounds and 324 from other causes, making social norms. George Gallup ohn Goldthorpe has made important Anonymized Records from the 1991 Richard Wilkinson and Archive, School of Mathematics and Landmarks in statistics prosperity possible for a larger number of a total of 3,168. The army’s average His landmark Suicide (1897) was based American pollster (1901-1984) contributions to the understanding of Census, by Marsh and others, Kate Pickett Statistics, University of St Andrews, JOHN GRAUNT people. But today, Malthus’s concerns are manpower for that month was 32,393. on his observation that suicide appeared to Jsocial mobility. People’s actions are demonstrated that census material could British epidemiologists Scotland, created by John J O’Connor British merchant (1620-1674) becoming relevant again. Using this information, Nightingale be less frequent where the individual was ome 130 years after polling began, undertaken from a positon of social power provide a wealth of social data for and Edmund F Robertson Though he was reviled by many as an computed a mortality rate of 1,174 per closely integrated into a society; in other George Gallup did more than anyone which is determined by the class they researchers to study. After her early death, t is too early to tell who will be the http://www-history.mcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/ raunt is credited as the founder of enemy of the workers, his Essay can be 10,000 with 1,023 being from diseases such words, those without a strong social Sto put this method of survey-taking on belong to. Therefore class position is a the Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Durkheim of the 21st century, but .html , the statistical study of seen as the first serious economic study of as typhus and cholera. If this rate had identification would be more susceptible. solid scientific ground. His work with public powerful predictor of many kinds of Survey Research was established at IWilkinson and Pickett could well be in University of Minnesota Morris Ghuman populations. A prosperous the welfare of the lower classes. continued, and troops had not been Thus, what looks like a purely individual opinion surveys altered political campaigns behaviour. University. the running. Their book The Spirit Level: www.morris.umn.edu/~sungurea/ haberdasher until his was replaced frequently, disease alone would decision to renounce life could be and corporate marketing. Polling uses The internationally-used Goldthorpe Marsh’s work laid foundations for such why more equal societies almost always introstat/history/indexhistory.shtml destroyed in the fire of London in 1666, he have killed the entire British army in the explained through social forces, such as statistical methodology and probability Class Schema groups 11 classes of publications as 2009’s ‘Sleepwalking to do better, shows statistically that in Nobel Prize winners began studying baptism and death records ADOLPHE QUETELET Crimea. religious affiliation, which he argued theory for constructing appropriate employees into three main clusters. Segregation’? by Nissa Finney and Ludi countries where there is a big gap between www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/ kept by the London parishes (the bills of Belgian statistician (1796-1874) On her return to London in August 1856, produced different rates of suicide among samples and for calculating margins of -class, or salaried, occupations Simpson, which used census information to rich and poor, problems such as mental economics/laureates/ mortality) while still a merchant. He Nightingale discovered that soldiers during Protestants and Catholics. error for the survey results. (such as professionals and administrators) challenge both right-wing and left-wing illness, drug abuse, obesity, crime and Articles by Gordon Marshall in A noticed that certain phenomena occurred uetelet was one of the most peacetime had twice the mortality rate of This part of his argument has Gallup is famous for one major triumph offer incremental advancement, ‘myths’ about immigration and racial teenage pregnancy are more common. The Dictionary of Sociology, 1998 regularly, and wrote Natural and Political influential social statisticians of civilians. Using her statistics, she subsequently been the basis of much debate and one embarrassing failure. In 1936, he security and often a high level segregation. It showed, for instance, that most equal societies, such as Japan and http://www.encyclopedia.com Observations … Made upon the Bills of Q the 19th century, and has been illustrated the need for sanitary reform in about how reliable suicide statistics are, accurately forecast the re-election of of trust from employers. Working-class jobs immigrants as a group are young, motivated Sweden, have the best records of psycho- Wikipedia Mortality in 1662. called the ‘patriarch of statistics’. He was all military hospitals and gained the because strong taboos around suicide in Franklin Delano Roosevelt to his second tend to have closely regulated pay and skilled, not benefits scroungers, as social health. Levels of trust and a sense of www.wikipedia.com Graunt observed that the urban death convinced that probability influenced the attention of Queen Victoria and Prince some cultures mean there is variation in term as US President. The leading pollster arrangements, greater routine and more mythology has it. Migrants (who make up community are greater, children do better 200 Years of the Census rate exceeded the rural, and attributed this course of human affairs. ‘Average’ man Albert. which deaths come to be classified as of its day, the Literary Digest magazine, supervision. The intermediate class is small nine per cent of the UK population) in school and there is more social mobility. www.statistics.gov.uk/census2001/ to overpopulation. He found that although could be described by graphically arraying suicides. Durkheim has also been criticised drew samples from phone books and car employers and the self-employed. contribute more in taxes than they use in These trends affect everyone across the bicentenary/bicentenary more males than females were born, there sets of facts about many individuals as for committing the ecological fallacy in his registrations and predicted that Alf Goldthorpe’s analysis of social mobility public services and benefits. spectrum. For example, in countries with Cliometrics was a higher mortality rate for males, so the bell-shaped curves. The behaviour of Francis Galton analysis, misinterpreting correlations Landon, a Republican, would win. Gallup showed that the second half of the The first British census was taken in the widest gaps, such as the US, Britain and www.science.jrank.org/pages/9638/ population was divided almost evenly individuals could then be assessed against British anthropologist (1822-1911) between suicide rates and the social realised this approach biased the sample twentieth century saw significant upward 1801 amidst fears that the growing Portugal, rates of mental illness are five History-Economic-Rise-Cliometrics-or- between the sexes. Graunt is also seen as how an ‘average’ man would behave. characteristics of places, but despite these towards the wealthy, and used a smaller but mobility of sons relative to their fathers’ population might outstrip the food supply, times higher across the whole population New-Economic-History an early pioneer in and He believed average characteristics of The man who coined the term ‘nature criticisms his study still stands as a more representative group. positions, but that this did not mean that as Malthus predicted. It asked five than in the most equal societies. Durkheim epidemiology. whole races or nationalities could be versus nurture’ was Francis Galton, an remarkable pioneering work. In 1948, he wrongly predicted that the the UK was moving towards a classless questions and counted 10 million people Surprisingly, and contrary to the www.Emile-durkheim.com He invented the life table, which quantified by careful use of his methods, explorer and anthropologist who became In his research for Suicide, Durkheim Republican challenger Thomas Dewey society; rather, space for significant living in 2 million . The 2001 hypotheses of Durkheim, the authors found Finney, N. and Simpson, L. ‘Sleepwalking predicted the percentage of persons who which he called ‘social mechanics’. He interested in heredity, in part through was one of the founders of the use of would defeat Harry Truman. It was a close numbers of men from working-class census asked 40 questions, counted nearly that while homicide was higher in unequal to Segregation’? would live to each successive age and their devised improvements in census taking and reading his cousin ’s Origin quantitative methods in the study of race, but Truman won. Gallup learned from backgrounds to develop middle-class 60 million people living in some 24 million societies, those where the gap was smaller The Policy Press Know then thyself, presume not God to scan; economies and predict the impact of a vast life expectancy year by year. It was the start today the Quetelet Index is an international of Species. He became convinced that criminology. his mistake: he had stopped polling two careers had been created by the changing households and informed more than £50bn had a higher proportion of suicides, http://www.policypress.org.uk The proper study of Mankind is Man. range of variables. The pioneering social of actuarial statistics, so important to the measure of obesity. people who were successful had acquired weeks before the election despite the large occupational structure. The picture is of public spending each year. perhaps because people blamed themselves Gallup scientists of the 19th century would be amazed insurance industry. Graunt was able to Quetelet was the first to use the bell their superior intelligence through number of undecided voters. Gallup further complicated by the movement of rather than society for their anomie. John H. Lienhard, University of Houston, o said the poet Alexander at where their work has led. estimate roughly the number of men of curve other than as an error law, and this heredity. B. Seebohm Rowntree concluded that undecided voters tend increasing numbers of women into the Wilkinson and Pickett used international ‘Engines of our Ingenuity’: Pope, and social scientists have been Statistics (which has the same root as State) military age, the number of women of had a powerful influence on Francis He outlined his hypothesis in Hereditary British sociologist (1871-1954 ) disproportionately to favour incumbents on labour force. Lawrence Klein statistics about physical and mental health, www.uh.edu/engines/epi1199 childbearing age, the number of families Galton’s studies of intelligence. He was a Genius (1869), using data collected by polling day. The class schema was one of the first American economist (born 1920) drug abuse, education, imprisonment, Klein trying to take the measure of man and began as the counting of people and goods so and the population of London. pioneer in pointing to the existence of analysing the obituaries of eminent men in oncerned about poverty, Rowntree classifications in sociology to be developed obesity, social mobility, trust and The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics, woman ever since. For more than 200 that they could be taxed by the rulers. regularities in social phenomena. The Times. His work sparked the eugenics conducted a survey of working-class with reliability and validity always in mind. ew technology has vastly extended community life, violence, child well-being Library of Economics and Liberty: S movement, which called for improving the homes in York in 1897-98 and Robert Fogel Classifications and scales that allow what statisticians can do. Lawrence and other indicators to develop an index of www.econlib.org/library/Enc/bios/Klein years, they have used statistics and other types Starting in the 17th century, concepts of C of maths to find out about the nature of probability and the study of variation THOMAS ROBERT MALTHUS physical and mental make-up of the human published his findings inPoverty: A Study American economic historian and counting and other forms of measurement – NKlein’s Wharton Econometric health and social problems for 23 rich Malthus British demographer and cleric FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE species by selected parenthood. Galton of Town Life (1901), which became a classic scientist (born 1926) and in turn, statistical analysis – play a Forecasting model of the US economy countries. In Japan and Sweden the richest www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/ different groups of people and to try to make transformed statistics into a mathematical (1766-1834) English nurse (1820-1910) went so far as to advocate human breeding in empirical sociology. Several more crucial role in social science. But they must contains more than 1,000 simultaneous 20 percent are less than four times as rich malthus_thomas.shtml their lives better. Social reformers have used discipline. Today, statistical methodology is restrictions so that the ‘feeble-minded’ surveys followed. he systematic application of have high levels of reliability (the capacity equations. This and other econometric as the poorest fifth; but in Britain they are Florence Nightingale statistics to describe the stark reality of poverty important in the physical, biological and social althus’s Essay on Population put he Lady with the Lamp was a social would not have children. Born into the famous chocolate family, economic theory and quantitative to be used by different researchers on the models can forecast economic conditions over seven times as rich, and in the USA, statistical links: – how little food some people had to eat, for sciences, engineering, economics and forward the idea that unchecked activist who used statistical charts Despite these highly controversial Rowntree was instrumental in getting the Tmethods to economic history is same data and give the same results) and and estimate the impact of changes in over eight times. www.math.yorku.ca/SCS/Gallery/flo.html example. Florence Nightingale used statistical wherever measurements are made and Mpopulation growth always exceeds Tand diagrams as powerful arguments conclusions, Galton’s contributions to to establish a pension plan, a called ‘cliometrics’ (Clio is the muse of validity (does what it says on the tin). government spending, taxes and other Florence Nightingale Museum the growth of the food supply. Actual for social reform. Her idea that social social science are influential to this day. He five-day week, and an employee - history). A large stock of quantitative data Because it has a clear theoretical basis policies as well as fluctuations in business http://www.florence-nightingale.co.uk/ charts of her own devising to prove that better interpreted. population growth is kept in check by phenomena could be measured objectively developed the statistical concepts of sharing plan. and advances in computer technology which allows its validity to be tested, the conditions such as , cms/ sanitation and nutrition in hospitals saves This poster and the teaching notes trace events such as starvation, war and disease and analysed mathematically were correlation and regression to the mean, and In his 1901 study, Rowntree made it possible to collect large historical schema has provided the basis for far more and exports. Rowntree many lives. In the late 20th century, computer some of the landmarks in the use and by ‘preventive checks’ such as influenced by Quetelet and her charts by was the first to use the survey as a data distinguished between families suffering samples. Fogel’s first major study involving revealing statistical analyses than were is defined byEncyclopedia International Journal of Epidemiology: technology escalated what could be done with of statistics in social science. postponement of marriage. William Playfair, who introduced the pie collection method. from primary poverty – lacking enough cliometrics was Railroads and American previously possible of the relationships Britannica as ‘the statistical and www./ije.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/ Because of the tendency for the chart and the circle graph in 1801. for even the minimum necessities – : Essays in Econometric between social class and – for example – mathematical analysis of economic full/31/2/505-a numbers. Numerous aspects of whole societies It is far from comprehensive, but population always to push above the food Nightingale was asked to oversee the and secondary poverty, where earnings History (1964). His mathematical approach health and mortality, children’s educational relationships, often serving as a basis for www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/ could be measured in detail, and econometric provides a brief sketch of their supply, it would be fruitless to try to introduction of nurses to military hospitals were sufficient, but money was spent on enabled him to rebut the assumption that attainment, voting behaviour and economic forecasting’. RErowntreeS.htm modeling could describe large national development. ameliorate the conditions of the poor, in Turkey during the Crimean War other things (some ‘useful’, some – such as railroads had made a huge difference to the sociopolitical attitudes, lifestyles and class After WWII Klein used econometric Wilkinson, R. and Pickett, K. The Spirit because the extra means of subsistence (1853-6). When she arrived in Scutari, she alcohol – ‘wasteful’). US economy in the 19th century. mobility. modelling to counter the conventional Level, Allen Lane Editor Diane Hofkins Chief adviser Graham Crow School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton would immediately be absorbed by a boost found desperately unsanitary conditions in Rowntree’s study provided a wealth of Examining goods transportation costs, wisdom that the end of the war would sink PHOTOS www.equalitytrust.org.uk/why/evidence/ PHILIP ENTICKNAP (c) DORLING KINDERSLEY / ISTOCKPHOTO Consultant Philip Press statistician Design Dane Wilson in population. To maximise wealth, a the field hospitals. Nightingale collected statistical data on , hours of work, Fogel compared the actual 1890 economy the US economy into depression. Klein BRIDGEMAN / ALAMY / GETTY / BBC methods