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Investing in an Era of Uncertainty

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Investing in an Era of Uncertainty Investing in an Era of Uncertainty John S. Griswold, Jr. Executive Director, Commonfund Institute | CAIS/NYSAIS | May 2008 Setting the Context | The Market Headlines Bursting bubbles and the ripple effects Volatility returns with a vengeance No more housing ATM card – approximately $2 trillion in “lost” wealth “Agflation” – more than just oil is up Global growth slows … and China hums along The “R” word – how slow will we grow? 2 Source: BEA U.S. RealGDP Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago 10% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Quarterly GDP (%) -2% 1992 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1993 1Q00 2Q00 1994 3Q00 4Q00 1995 1Q01 2Q01 1996 3Q01 4Q01 1997 1Q02 2Q02 1998 3Q02 4Q02 1999 1Q03 2Q03 2000 3Q03 4Q03 2001 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 2002 4Q04 1Q05 2003 2Q05 3Q05 2004 4Q05 1Q06 2005 2Q06 3Q06 2006 4Q06 1Q07 2.50% 2007 1Q08 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 2008 1Q08 The Housing Sector – Existing Homes – The Great Equalizer Monthly Data 1/31/1955 - 3/31/2008 Housing Starts (Year-to-Year Change) 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 3/31/2008 = -36.5% 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 90 90 80 80 70 Shaded areas represent National Bureau of 70 60 Economic Research recessions. 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 -20 -20 -30 -30 -40 -40 -50 3/31/2008 = -40.9% -50 (E238) Building Permits (Year-to-Year Change) Source: Ned Davis Research | CAIS/NYSAIS | May 2008 Source: BLS Inflation Percent (%) 10% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Jan 2003 Apr 2003 Jul 2003 Oct 2003 CPI ex Food & Energy ex Energy Food(YoY) & CPI (YoY) CPI Food & ex Energy (YoY) PPI PPI (YoY) Jan 2004 Apr 2004 Jul 2004 Oct 2004 Jan 2005 Apr 2005 Jul 2005 Oct 2005 | CAIS/NYSAIS | May 2008 Jan 2006 Apr 2006 Jul 2006 Oct 2006 Jan 2007 Apr 2007 Jul 2007 Oct 2007 Jan 2008 Employment Black Monday S&L Crisis Mexican Debt Russia/ LTCM NASDAQ Subprime October 19, 1987 1990 Crisis | 1995 1998 Collapse | 2000 Crisis | 2007 10% 4% 3% 8% e 2% 6% 1% 4% 0% Civilian Unemployment Rat Civilian Nonfarm Payroll Employmen 2% Civilian Unemployment Rate (left axis) -1% Nonfarm Payroll Employment (right axis) 0% -2% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: BLS | CAIS/NYSAIS | May 2008 Abundant Liquidity Global Broad Money Growth (YoY Chg) Russia M2 49.8% South Africa M3 25.8% Argentina M3 25.1% Brazil M4 22.0% India M3 20.7% Singapore M3 20.6% Saudi Arabia M2 19.6% China M2 18.5% Australia M3 18.0% Norway M2 17.4% Indonesia M2 17.1% Hong Kong M3 16.9% Philippines M3 14.9% United Kingdom M4 13.7% United States MZM 11.8% Eurozone M3 11.6% Czech Republic M2 11.4% Korea M3 10.3% Source: ISI 7 World Economic Growth 15% World USA Japan EU 15 Emerging countries China Latam 10% 5% 0% -5% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Commonfund, OECD, Wellington updated March 2008 | CAIS/NYSAIS | May 2008 What’s Different This Time? The Mix of World GDP 1995 2007 Italy France 4% United 5% Kingdom 4% Other developed 14% United States 26% Germany Japan 9% 8% Developing Gaining in Economies Importance Developing Germany 22% Economies 6% 34% Japan United 18% Kingdom 5% United States 24% France 4% Other developed Italy 13% 4% Source: ISI | CAIS/NYSAIS | May 2008 The Global Growth Dichotomy 20 ISI Developing Economies 15 Strength minus Weakness Economic 10 Diffusion Index 5 0 -5 15 10 5 ISI Developed 0 Economies Strength minus -5 Weakness Economic Diffusion Index -10 -15 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: ISI Source: FactSet P/E byRegion Multiples (P/E FY 1) MSCI Japan MSCI M SCI UnitedKingdom S&P 500 MSCI Emerging Markets Emerging MSCI M SCI Europe Kingdom Ex-United 16.8x 12/31/02 12/30/03 12/31/04 12/30/0514.9x 12/29/06 12/31/07 3/31/08 19.5x 14.9x 9.4x 18.8x 15.7x 19.1x 16.8x 12.0x 17.3x 15.0x 16.8x 15.1x 10.3x 15.9x 13.1x 19.0x 14.5x 12.2x 15.8x 13.3x 18.3x 14.5x 13.8x 15.8x 12.8x 15.5x 13.3x 15.8x 13.4x 10.8x 12.7x 10.7x 12.7x The Numbers Behind the Headlines Slowing Global Growth 11.4% 2007 10.0% 2008 9.8% 8.5% 3.1% 2.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% U.S. Japan UK Europe ex-UK China BRICs Source: JP Morgan The Numbers Behind the Headlines “Agflation” – commodity prices beyond oil 13 The Numbers Behind the Headlines The return of volatility 180 50 MOVE Index (left axis) 160 VIX Index (right axis) 45 40 140 35 120 30 100 25 VIX MOVE 80 20 60 15 40 10 20 5 0 0 9/1/1998 3/1/1999 9/1/1999 3/1/2000 9/1/2000 3/1/2001 9/1/2001 3/1/2002 9/1/2002 3/1/2003 9/1/2003 3/1/2004 9/1/2004 3/1/2005 9/1/2005 3/1/2006 9/1/2006 3/1/2007 9/1/2007 3/1/2008 Source: Bloomberg The Numbers Behind the Headlines The return of volatility Daily Change in S&P 500 Index 140 Number of Days +/- 1% 125 Number of Days +/- 2% 120 105 102 100 92 82 81 79 80 60 52 49 Number of Days Per Year 41 38 40 37 30 29 23 23 25 20 17 20 13 15 15 15 3 0 002 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1Q 2008 Source: Bloomberg The Numbers Behind the Headlines Risk is no longer free and spreads have widened U.S. Credit Basis Basis Basis Swaps Points U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities Points Points 270 330 80 250 280 230 75 210 230 70 190 65 170 180 150 60 130 130 55 110 80 90 50 Jul 07 Jul Jan 07 Jan 08 Nov 07 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar Sep 07 May 07 May Jul 07 Jul Jan 07 Jan 08 Nov 07 Mar 07 Mar Mar 08 Mar Jun 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Mar Mar 07 Mar May 07 May Sep 07 Dec 07 Dec 06 Basis Basis Basis Points Agencies Emerging Markets Points U.S. Corporate High Yield Points 100 920 340 90 320 820 80 300 720 280 70 620 260 60 240 520 220 420 50 200 40 180 320 160 220 30 140 Jul 07 Jul 07 Jul Jul 07 Jul Jan 08 Jan 08 Jan 07 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 07 Nov 07 Nov 07 Nov 07 Mar 08 Mar 08 Mar Mar 07 Mar 07 Mar Mar 08 Mar Mar 07 Mar Sep 07 Sep 07 Sep 07 May 07 May 07 May May 07 May Source: Bloomberg, Lehman Live Source: Bloomberg High YieldCreditSpreads 1,000 1,200 200 400 600 800 Mar 1997 Sep 1997 Mar 1998 +150% Sep 1998 Mar 1999 Sep 1999 Mar 2000 Sep 2000 +101% Mar 2001 +22% +30% Sep 2001 Mar 2002 1,000 Sep 2002 200 400 600 800 +52% Mar 2007 Mar 2003 Apr 2007 May 2007 Sep 2003 Jun 2007 Jul 2007 Mar 2004 Aug 2007 Sep 2007 Sep 2004 Oct 2007 +69% Nov 2007 Mar 2005 Dec 2007 Jan 2008 Sep 2005 Feb 2008 June 2007 to Mar 2008 Mar 2006 March 2008 +198% Sep 2006 Mar 2007 Sep 2007 Mar 2008 Housing Price Appreciation …. Depreciation 15.8% Price Decline 250 25% S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index from June 2006 to February 2008 6.8% Price Decline 20% 200 from October 1989 to April 1991 15% 10% 150 5% 0% Index Level 100 -5% Year over Year Change (%) Change Year over Year -10% 50 Composite-10 -15% Year over Year Change 0 -20% 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Standard & Poor’s Cumulative Inflation-Adjusted Performance 70% S&P 500, 30% Lehman Aggregate and 5% Spend Real Value using CPI as the Deflator Real Value using HEPI as the Deflator Time Period – 42 Years Source: Ibbotson, Bloomberg, Commonfund Institute The equity portion of the hypothetical portfolio is based on monthly returns of the S&P 500 Index (12/65-2/08), and the fixed income portion is based on monthly returns of the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Index (01/73-2/08) and the Ibbotson Associates Long Term Corporate Bond Index (12/65-12/72). HEPI data from 07/06 to 2/08 is estimated using the Commonfund Institute method based on regression analysis. Returns for this hypothetical portfolio assume that it is rebalanced to 70/30 annually on 1/1/yy and 5% is distributed annually on 1/1/yy. | CAIS/NYSAIS | May 2008 Return/Risk 10 Year Period Ending December 31, 2007 Source: Style Advisor; Altvest The following are the indices used by asset class: U.S. Government Bonds, Lehman Aggregate Bond Index; U.S.
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