CSIRO fDivision of Atrnospheric Research
Research Report 1985 - 1988 CSIRO
Divisionof AtmosphericResearch
ResearchReport 1985- 1988 Contents
Overview I Staffand finance 2 Externalfunding J TheDivisional Advisory Committee A Highlights1985 - 1988 ,
Global Atmospheric Change 7 Introduction Carbondioxide Impactof plantson carbondioxide 8 The greenhouseeffect l0 Sourcesof increasedmethane r2 Climate impacts l3 Sulfur cycle 13 BiogenicNOx emissions 14 Ozonedestruction 15 Nuclearwar 17 Climatic effects 17 Nuclearfireball modelling l8 TeleconnectiouDattems l9
AtmosphericPollution 2l Introduction 2l LatrobeValley Ailshed Study 2l Plumetracking studies 21 LatrobeValley smog precursor study ZJ Aerosol/Visibilitystudy 25 Air-flowin theSofia Vale 26 Acid rainin theNorthern Territory 27 Turbulentdispersion 28 Coldfronts modelling 30 Flowover complex terrain 3l Bushfiremeteorology 3l
Remote Sensing 33 Introduction JJ Lidarapplications JJ Instrumentation JJ Lidar 5+ Cloudradiation studies 34 Supportstudies for a satellitewind lidar 36 Satelliteapplications 36 Introduction 36 Vegetationproperties 5t Flood rnonitoling 37 Antarctic satelliteremote sensins 3t Other applications 38 Satelliteatlas 38 Satellite instrumentatior.r 38 Along Track ScanningRadiometer 38 AnnosphericPressure Scanner 40 Other instrumentation 4l Satellitereception and commercial activities 41 Imageprocessing system A) Value-addedproducts ia Currentand futuredirections +J
Water Resources 45 Introduction 45 Droughtstudies 45 El Niiio 47 Generalcirculation models A1 M iddle ahnospheremodelling 49 Surfacernoisture impact ou clirnate 50 Dynarnicsof mesoscaleconvective systems 50 EMEX 5l Australiansummer monsoon 52 The AustralianWinter StonnsExperiment 52 Geophysicalfl uid dynamics )J Geophysicalfluid dyuamicslaboratory 53 Fluid transportthrough Bass Strait 54 Oceancurrent transport 54 Coastalcurrents 55 Effectsof topographyon atmosphericflows 55
Activities 5/ Technologytransfer J/ Cornrnercialisation of CSIDA Ji Electricalread-out meteorological barometer )/ Cylindersfor thestable storage of referencegases )/ TV signaldistribution JI Laserceiliorneter 58 Mechanicalproducts 58 Consultantservices 58 FacilitiesGroup )6 Engineering 58 Computing 59 ScientificServices Group 60 Conferencesand Workshops 60 Greenhouse87 6l Conferencesand Workshops supported by theDivision 6l Administration 62 Foreword
This researchreport is being issuedat an auspicioustime. The current popular and world-wide interest in atmosphericscience is unique. A generalawareness ofthe precious nature ofour environment not only encompassesimportant specific topics such as acid rain, air quality and stratosphericozone, it is now firmly focussedon climate - the synthesisof all atmosphericstudies. Over the last three years the Division of Atmospheric Research has.experienced a remarkableincrease in morale and in resources. Practically all the increasedfunding is from extemal sourcesand has been due to the enthusiasticadvocacy by membersof the Division of the skills residenthere and the scientific achievements The Chief of the that contribute strongly to national objectives.In the past eighteen CSIRO Division of extemal funding has significantly exceeded Aunospheric Research, months increased Dr G. B.Tucker further cuts in Treasury funding and the growth being experienced at the Division contrastsmarkedly with the overall trend within CSIRO. A major expansion,of course, has occurred in green- housetype research.However, this has beenparalleled by strong scientific advancesin drought prediction research,in aspectsof remote sensingand in the application of laboratory, field, theor- etical and computing skills to problems of atmosphericpollution. The Division hasbeen strongly involved in many national and international programsand is generally regardedas a leading agency in climate research,in atmosphericchemistry on both regional and global scalesand in boundary layer studies.This repoft details work in theseareas and describesother research achievementsbetween 1985 and 1988. Strong support for this resurgenceof atmosphericscience and the role of the Division in solving problems of major national relev- ancehas been shown by many who are involved in one way or anotherwith our activities.These include the Director of the Institute of Natural Resourcesand Environment; the Divisional Advisory Committee; the Australia and New Zealand Environment Council and associatedState agencies;several Governmentdepartments, particularly the Departmentof Arts, Sport, the Environment, Tourism and Territories; the Commission for the Future and the Australian ConservationFoundation. Fair and sympatheticreporting from the media has contributed to the new senseofpurpose and self-esteemthat has spreadthroughout the Division. It is a great pleasureto acknowledge the fine spirit and pride in achievementshown by all staff members.
G. B. Tucker November 1989 Chief of Division Overview
While the thrustof the Division's researcheffort hasremained the same,there has been a redefinition of the four major research programs.Each program is made up of a number of research projectsand the projectslisted are currentforJuly 1988.The new programs and componentresearch projects are:
Global Atmospheric Change Researchseeks to discover why the chemistry of the atmosphereis changing,how it will changein the future and how our climate is influencedby thesechanges. The aim is to provide a predictive capabilityof atmosphericand climatic changeand to put this in a specific Australianperspective. . The mechanismsand causesof increasesin non-reactivetrace gases(carbon dioxide, methane and chlorofluorocarbons)in the global atmosphere . Scientificsupport for the CapeGrim BaselineAtmospheric Pollution Station(CGBAPS) . Chemical,physical and biological mechanismsregulating reactivegases and aerosolsin the global atmosphere . Studiesof the dynamicsand physicsof global and regional climatechange . Studiesof dynamicaland physicalmechanisms producing anomalousatmospheric circulations . Climateimpact and assessment
Atmospheric Pollution and Bushfi re Meteorology This programstudies factors which influenceair pollution and bushfires.The focus is on identifying sourcesofpollution and understandingthe way in which it is formed, transportedand dispersed.The aim is to assistindustry and regulatorybodies which areconcemed with atmosphericpollution and the implementation of control strategies. . Theoretical and experimental studiesof turbulent dispersion in the atmosphericboundary laYer . Air quality dynamics:research and applications . Regionalstudies of visibility reducingaerosols and oxidant precursorsin the Latrobe Valley . Bushfire meteorology research
Remote Sensing A precise understandingof the way solar radiation interacts with the atmosphereis essentialto our understandingof many physical processeswhich determinethe natureof our weatherand climate. Remote sensingtechniques are usedto collect information about the earth'satmosphere, oceans, land and ice surfaces.The aim is to useour improvedunderstanding of thesephysical processes to provideaccurate information for the managementof the natural environment. . Satellitedata applications . Commercialisationof CSIDA . New instrumentsfor meteorologicalsatellites . Developmentof new lidar technologyfor atmosphericresearch
Water Resources The programfocuses on the way in which regionaland global weatherand climateprocesses influence the waterbudget. The aim is to providepractical means of forecastingdroughts and to carry out researchto improve our understandingof stormsand rain-bearingsystems. . Drought studies . Dynamicsof mesoscaleconvective systems . Surfacemoisture impact on climate . Winter stormsand cloud seeding,quantitative precipitation forecastins
Staffand finance The Division of AtmosphericResearch has some I l5 staff, approximatelytwo-thirds of whom areResearch and Experimental Scientists.Expenditure in eachofthe financial years1985-86, 1986-87and 1987-88was $6.2 million. In 1985-86the non-appropriationfunding was3.5Voof the total expenditure,but by 1987-88this had risen to ll%o.TheDivision is steadily increasingits level offunding from externalsources and expects The Dit,ision of Atnutspheric Rcscarc'lt thesesources to providb over 3OVoof its budgetwithin two years. Externalfunding Project Lead scientist Grant Deptof ForeignAffairs 1985-86 B. Pittock $140000 Clinwticeffec'tsort Austalia of a nuclearu,ar itt theNortlrcrn Hemisphere Departmentof Science/Bureauof G. Pearman $420000 Meteorology1985-88 BaselineAir PollutiortStqtion EPA(V)1987-88 I. Galbally $15000 Anilient organics EPA(V)1987-88 I. Galbally $5 000 No n - nrc th a ttich yd roca rbort st u dy MMBW 1987-88 A. Long $230000 CIoudseeding cottsulting cotltt'act MMBW 1987-88 A. Long $60000 CSIROF27 hire NERDDC1987-88 R. Francev $13500 Meridionqlcarbon isotope variations NERDDC1985-88 G. Ayers, $81000 LatroheValley Aerosol J. Gras Visibility Srudy SEC(V)1986-88 B. Sawford $140000 Researc'hFellou,ship VictorianDepartment of T. Beer $4 000 Conservation,Forests and Lands (NBRU)1987-88 WheatIndustry Research I. Galbally $20000 Council1986-88 Gase ou s nitro ge n entission fi'om it't'igatedwheat in SouthAusn'alia Revenueearned by the Division Anemometercalibrations 1986-88 $35000 CSIDA Images1986-88 $50000 Massspectrometry analysis 1987-88 $5 m0 Workshop/Conferencefundin g: AVHRR Workshop1986-87 COSSA $5 000 Bureauof Meteorology $10000 CSIRO(GroundwaterResearch) $3 000 Asia AustraliaAssociation via COSSA $2 000 GAGEMeeting 1986-87 Bureau of Meteorology $3 000 AerosolAssociation of Australia $l 000 Greenhouse87 sponsorship1987-88 $18500 The DivisionalAdvisorv Committee In a move to ensurethe Division's accountabilityand to strengthen the Division's supponfrom outsideCSIRO, Dr Tucker decidedin 1983to invite a numberof prominentfigures to serveon a Divisional Advisory Committee.The Committeemeets twice a year and advisesthe Chief on policy and other matters.It also has a very importantrole in identifying the interestsof the Australian communitythat may be furtheredby the Division's researchas well as suggestingthe best way to make this work known to interestedpersons and organisations. In July 1988the Advisory Committeeconsisted of: Mr Hal Holmes, Chairman Chairman(retired), Monsanto Australia Limited Mr Richard Llewelyn, Manager,Research and Development,State Electricity Commissionof Victoria Mr Mike Lodge, Deputy GeneralManager (retired), Board Member,Woodside Offshore PetroleumPty Ltd Dr Ian McPhail, Director-General,Department of Environmentand Planning, SouthAustralia Mr Alan Rainbird, Deputy Secretary,Commonwealth Department of Aviation Dr Brian Tucker, Chief of Division of AtmosphericResearch Mr Bob Chynoweth, Observer M.P., FederalMember for Dunkley Dr Willem Bouma, Secretaryto the Committee Division of AtmosphericResearch
Highlights1985 - 1988 The AtmosphericPollution and Bushfire MeteorologyProgram hasshown significant progress in all areas.In particular,a new laboratoryfacility (a largeconvection tank) is in the processof being constructedand installed.Amongst otherhighlights for this programwas the successfulcompletion of the LatrobeValley Air ShedStudy in which CSIRO collaboratedwith the State Electricity Commissionof Victoria (SECV) and the Environment ProtectionAuthority of Victoria (EPAV). Theoreticalstudies on plume dispersionin the convectiveboundary layer complimentthe LatrobeValley field work. An offshootof the Airshed Study,a NationalEnergy Research, Development and Demonstration Council (NERDDC) supportedproject on visibility problemsand ozoneprecursors in the Valley, was carriedout by the Division's atmosphericchemists. There have also been severaldevelopments relating to the Global AtmosphericChange Program. Theseinclude significant scientificachievements in tracegas studies such as improved precisionin COz measurementand the successfulanalysis of air trappedin Antarctic ice, contributionsto the understandingof the newly discovered"ozone hole" and a burgeoninggas container projectwhich hascommercial implications. A scenarioof climate changefor Australiawas developedto assistthe preparationfor the Greenhouse87 Conferencewhich is referredto below. An exciting projectin the RemoteSensing Program was the designand developmentof a prototypeatmospheric pressure scannerwhile collaborationwith the RutherfordAppleton Laboratory in the UK continued on the developmentof the Along Track ScanningRadiometer. A novel activity for the Division has beento providethe motivation and the businessplan for a new companyto design,engineer and marketsatellite reception and analysissystems. Commercialisation of productsfrom satellite datacontinues to bring revenueto the Division. The drought component of the Water ResourcesProgram has been highly successfulscientifically in establishingan association betweencontinental scale drought and two differentsea surface temperatureanomaly pattems in the Pacific Ocean.Indeed, a novel theoreticalapproach is being developedto determinethat patternof anomaloussea surface temperature which producesthe largestresponse in the atmosphericcirculation. A secondfeature of this programhas been the Division's involvementin field experimentson mesoscaleweather phenomena such as convective stormsover northernAustralia and frontal systemsover south-easternAustralia. During 1987the Division puf a greatdeal of effort into organising the Greenhouse87 Conference.The two major objectiveswere: . to haveexperts in the variouspotential impact areas assess the impactsof climate changeof the kind possibledue to greenhousewarming. o to communicateto the wider scientificand engineering communitythe currentstatus of the greenhousetheory.
About 90 scientistsand engineerstook up the challengeearly in 1987and prepared57 papersfor presentationat the meeting.The paperswere ofa high standardand, afterrefereeing and selection, they were usedto producethe Greenhouse87 Conference Proceedings,which were almostready for publicationby the end of the reportingperiod. Global Atmospheric Change
Introduction Changesin the chemicalcomposition of the atmosphereare occurringboth regionallyand globally.Locally thesechanges haveeffects on visibility and the quality of the air we breath.At a global level there is now strong evidencethat thesechanges are likely to bring aboutsignificant climatic modificationsas a result of the greenhouseeffect. Some will be beneficial,others will not. Reliable predictions of thesechanges will be of great benefit to the Australiancommunity. This requiresan understandingof why the chemistryof the atmosphereis changing,how it will changein the future and how the climate system,at both the global and regional level, is influencedby thesechanges. The objectives of the Global Atmospheric ChangeProgram are to predictand understandthe mechanismsresponsible for alterations in the chemical and physical characterof the atmosphere.Projects involve a combinationof theoreticalnumerical modelling and observationswhich will improve the understandingof the budgets of key climatically important trace gasesand aerosols.
Carbon dioxide Confident predictions of how future carbon dioxide emissions will affect the concentrationof this gas in the atmosphererely on an accuratemodel of carbon dioxide pools and their interactions.For accuratemodelling the carbon dioxide concentrationprior to 1850 must be known. It was at this time that industrialization and forest felling beganto havean impact. Air bubbles trapped in polar ice from as long ago as the 17th centuryhave been analysed by Division scientistsin collaboration with scientistsfrom the AustralianAntarctic Division. It hasbeen discoveredthat, prior to I 800, the carbon dioxide concentration was essentiallyconstant at about280 ppm. To carry out the analysis,ice which hasbeen drilled from the Antarctic is crushedunder vacuum. The releasedair is then dried and condensedin a trap cooled by liquid helium, and transported to the CSIRO laboratories.Gas chromatographyis used to determine the abundanceof carbon dioxide as well as nitrous oxide and methane. Map of Antar ctica sllnu'iug nwj or fc aturc s, ic e- c o r irry sitcsartd stations
CO, concentration (pp-mby volume)
Carhott dioxide 1700 1800 1900 co trce tilratio ns det e rni rted Year gas was trapped fi'on air u'apped in Antarctic tce-cotes Impact of plantson carbondioxide The Division of AtmosphericResearch operates a high quality sampli ng network measuringthe carbon-1 3 l carbon-t2 isotope ratio in atmosphericCOz from clean air sites.This is used to identify the portion of the COz which hasexperienced photosynthesisin land plants,including that from fossil fuels. An unanticipatedbonus from this project,which is fundedby NERDDC and haslogistic supportfrom CGBAPS (CapeGrim BaselineAir Pollution Station),NOAA/GMCC (Geophysical Monitoring For Climate Change)and the AustralianAntarctic Division, is the first reliableglobal dataon the oxygen-18/ A cross-.sectiottthrough an oxygen-16isotope ratio. It hasbeen found that the oxygen ice-corefi'ont LtwvDonte, isotoperatio exhibitsstrong systematic behaviour with both Atfiarctica. latitudeand seasonas well as with the El Niflo - Southern Oscillationphenomenon. The most likely explanationis that this is alsodue to the actionof greenplants,9OVo of which grow in the tropicsand the nofthern lremisphere.Measurements indicate that between30Vo and 5OVo of the total atmosphericCOz interactswith leaf watereach year. It is dissolvedand oxygen atomsare exchangedwith the water before the carbondioxide is againreleased. While within the plant, the COz moleculeencounters the enzymecarbonic anhydrase which ensuresrapid exchangeof one of its constituentoxygen atomsfor an oxygen atom from one of the plant's watermolecules. Both the signatureof the groundwater oxygen- 1 8 content(lower from the polesand continentinteriors) and the shift of the ground wateroxygen-l 8 due to evaporationfrom leaves,is reflectedin the atmospherecarbon dioxide oxygenisotope values. The effectsare most markedin the northernhemisphere. At a time when seriousquestions are emerging about the way fossil fuel carbondioxide is being removedfrom the atmosphere, the researchis providing a freshlook at a grossexchange aspect of the carboncycle which hasnot previouslybeen observed. Variationsin this datacarry informationon zonally averagedplant activities.At the least,the oxygenisotope ratio in CO2 promisesto be an unusualtracer of atmospherictransport. Sourcesof oxygen-18enrichment
(lcein vater evaporates foming oxtgen I lt deplete(l cloud droplels
(lessoxygen-18 inland)
Sources of o"rygen-18 ettriclmtent
The greenhouseeffect There are a number of gasesin the earth's atmospherewhich are able to intercept infrared radiation. The principal gasesare water vapour and carbon dioxide and both have a similar effect on the radiation balanceof the atmosphere.They allow incoming (visible) solar radiation to passthrough unhindered,but absorb a significant fraction of the outgoing infrared radiation emitted by the earth's surface.Even though the radiation lost to spaceis still equal to the radiation received from the sun, the combined effect of the radiatively active gasesand clouds is to increasethe surface temperatureof the earth in order to balancethe incoming solar radiation. Without this greenhouseffict, the averagetemperature oTthe earth's surface would decreasefrom its presentlevel of l5oC to about-1 8oC. In recentyears the term greenhouseeffect has been used to describe the global warming expectedas a result of man-induced changesto concentrationsof atmospherictrace gaseswhich absorb in the infrared.
l0 Greenhouse gas Annual increase Major sources Carbon dioxide 0.4Vp fossil fuels, deforestation Methane o.8vo livestock, rice paddies, mining Nitrous oxide O.3c/o biomassbuming, fossil fuel combustion Chlorofluorocarbons 5-lOVo industrial applications
Over the next 40 years it is thought that the greenhouseeffect will lead to:
. global warming of 1.5 to 4.5oC.
. world-wide changesin climate.
. changesto rainfall distribution, storm frequency and all other parametersthat make up climate.
. warming of the upper layers of the oceansleading to thermal expansionof the water. Coupled with a melting of land-based ice, this is expectedto lead to a sea-levelrise of botween 2O and50 cm.
. higher concentrationsof carbon dioxide which, in the absence of competing effects from other sourcessuch as acid rain and ozone, will act as a fertilizer and thus influence plant growth. Sourcesof increasedmethane Methane,like cat'bondioxide, is an importantatmospheric trace gasthat contributesto the greenhouseeffect' If the presenttrends fof methaneand othertrace gases continue, further warming will proceedat almosttwice the rateexpected to arisefrom increased carbondioxide levelsalone. This gasalso plays a significantrole in controlling levelsof stmtosphericchlorine and henceozone. Predictions of future stfatosphel'icozone levels depend strongly on the assumedgrowth in methane. In the past5 years,high-precision measurements of methane (CH+)levels have confirmed that this gasis increasingin the atmosphereby aboutO.8 Vo per year. Studies of air extractedfrom polat ice cotesshow fhat the modernincrease is part of a general rise in concentrationtlrat palallelshuman population growth. Concentrationshave increased from about775 partsper billion (tOg)Uy volume (ppbv) 200 yearsago, to the currentlevel of about I 600 ppbv. The main sink for CH+,accounting for' 85 7oof losses,is reaction with atmosphelichydroxyl (OH) radicals.The averageCH+ lifetime is about7-l l years.The main causeof the increasing - concentrationis the growth of sources.The principal sources entelic fermentationin livestockand insects,rice fields and natural wetlands,biomass burning, land fills and gasand coal fields are thoLrglrtto accountfor 27 5-790 T glyr. Agricultural sourcesare known to be increasingand both the area underfice cultivation and the cattlepopulation have grown steadilywith humanpopulation, doubling in the past40-50 years. Part of the increasein atmosphericmethane may also be due to a decreasein the hydloxyl radicalsink.
OH4brbvl i 1600 F t t
1200 .et f
I .t 'l ' tr't
1600 1700 1800 1900 M cthane co,tcctlil ations Year dete rntine d fiom air u'apped irt Atttarctic icc
t2 Climateimpacts Scenariosfor climatechange on a regionalscale in Australiahave beendeveloped and arebeing progressivelyrefined as new informationbecomes available from climate modellins and paleoclimaticand otherresearch. An early scenario,developed during 1984,was usedto assessthe potentialsensitivity of net primary productionin Australia to a climatic changesuch as might be expectedwith an equivalent doublingof carbondioxide in the atmosphere.In this scenario higher summerrainfall led to increasesin productivity in northern Australia,while warmingled to increasedproductivity in south-easternAustralia. Only the south-westshowed any decrease in ploductivity. While this scenariois generallyoptimistic, it containsmany grosssimplifications and shouldnot be takenas a firm prediction.Several factors not takeninto account,such as increasesin insectpests and plant diseases,could tend to reduce productivity.
Percettage chattge itt net primary produc tit i ty relativ e to tlxepresentfor a clinute scenario roug lily equivale nt to a doublittg of annsplrcric carbon dioxide Sulfur cycle Most of the sulfur-containingparticles that act as cloud nuclei over land come from anthropogenicsources such as coal buming and smeltingof sulfideores. Even in the most remotelocalities, such as over the southernoceans, each cubic centimetreof air typically containshundreds of submicroscopicsulfur-containing panicles capableof inducingthe formationof waterdroplets. Studieshave strengthened the suppositionthat, apartfrom that originating in seasplay, most naturalsulfur derivesfrom dimethyl
13 sulfide,produced by decomposingsea plants. Dimethyl sulfide is thoughtto be a significantnatural source of rain-wateracidity. Although over the oceanthe predominantmass of airbome particles comes from relatively large salt particles, in terms of numbers,the tiny sulfur-containingparticles (Aitken nuclei) are the most abundant.The numberof particlesis crucial in determiningthe numberof dropletsper unit volume of cloud, and this in turn hasa strongbearing on the cloud's persistence,the amount of solar radiation it reflects back to spaceand the likelihood of rain. The concentrationsof Aitken nuclei and cloud condensationnuclei are determined at Cape Grim. Both theseclasses of particles have beenshown to havemarked seasonal and interannualvariations. Ion chromatographyhas been usedto find the concentration of methanesulfonatein air trappedat Cape Grim. The methanesulfonateaerosol is producedfrom the breakdown of dimethyl sulfide gas.A seasonalvariation in concentrationwas found and this was attributedto changesin the biological productivityof phytoplanktonaccording to season. Laboratory studieshave demonstratedthat dimethyl sulfide producessulfur dioxide and particlesof sulfateas well as methanesulfonate.Clean maritime air alwayscontains pptv levels of sulfur dioxide.The amountof sulfateisolated has been in excessofthat derivedfrom seasalts. This supportsthe suggestion that the excesssulfate originates from dimethyl sulfide.
BiogenicNOx emissions Evolution of nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogendioxide (NOz) is a small but importantmechanism by which nitrogenis lost from the plant-soil system to the atmosphere.Nitrogen oxides are recognizedair pollutantsthat havean importantrole in the chemistry of the atmospherefrom the urban to the global scale. Nitric oxide is producedin soils during the microbial processesof nitrification and denitrificationand chemicallyby chemo- denitrification.Nitrogen dioxide can alsobe producedduring chemicaldenitrification. These gases,once they are releasedinto the atmosphere,combine with hydrocarbonsand carbon monoxide in atmospheric photochemical processesto form ozone, hydroxyl and nitrate radicals in the atmosphere.These are the major gas phaseoxidants which set in processthe chemistrythat removesmethane, incompletely substitutedhalocarbons, hydrocarbons and reduced sulfur gasesfrom the atmosphere.Thus microbial processes throughnitrogen oxide emissionsregulate the atmospheric concentrationsof many climatically importantchemical species. t4 Groundlevelsources of NO
About half tlrc growrl-level During this trienniumthere have been considerable advances in sources of NOl itt tlu our understandingof NOx emissions.Three field experimentshave Lan'obe Valley arc tnfitral. ln addition, nujor .stacks beenconducted in collaborationwith the Division of Plant liberate over 120 tonnes of Industry,Melbourne University and the Victorian Departmentof NOz a day, but this largely Agriculture. The fate of nitrogen fertilizer applied to flooded rice, escapesthe ltourtdary layer. to winter wheatand to sunflowershas been investigated along with the factorscontrolling these nitrogen oxide emissions.Plant cover, soil water content and soil temperatureare each important in regulatingthe NOx emissions. A simplemodel of soil microbial and physicalprocesses has been developed.It relateslaboratory measurementson soil cores to field measurementsof NOx emissionsand is the first model of NOx emissionstleveloped. An unanticipatedspin-off of this work was the estimationof NOx emissionsfrom soil processesin the Latrobe Valley for the Smog PrecursorStudy. BiogenicNOx emissionsin the LatrobeValley during summer have been calculatedon the basis of NOx measurementsmade at variousother siteswith land useand environmentalconditions similar to thosein the Valley. Both soil temperatureand eitherthe type of vegetationor the land usewere usedin thesecalculations of NOx fluxes.
The biogenicnitrogen oxide sourcefrom soils makesup 97o (range4Vo-76Vo) of the total NOx emissions into the Latrobe Valley in summer.However thesebiogenic emissions make up 54Voof the emissionsinto surface air where the regional pollution problems occur. This highlights the importance of thesenatural NOx emissionsin regionalphotochemical pollution processes.
Ozonedestruction Monitoring of the ozone layer and concentrationsof chlorofluorocarbons(CFCs) in the atmospherehas been done for many years.So far, a decreasein total ozone ofonly a few percent has been apparent,a trend that is not particularly significant in view of the largeyear to year variations.
15 At the CapeGlim Station,Division scientistsare monitoring the atmospl]el'icconcentrations of the chlolofluorocarbonsCCllF, CClzFz,CCIzFCCIFz and CHCIFz and the chlorocarbons CHTCCI: and CCI+.CFCs are usedas aerosolpropellants, refrigerants,foam-plastic blowing agentsand solventsand the chlolocarbonsas solvents,chemical intermediates and fumigants. Concentlationsof thesechemicals are increasingrapidly: 5Vo annuallyfor CClf and CClzFz;73Vo for CCIzFCCIFz;8Vo for CHCIFz; 5Vofor CHrCCls and 1-2Vofor CCI+. Models of stlatosphericchemistry have predicted that increasing amountsof CFCs in the atmosphereresult in a depletionof ozone. The ploblem is exacelbatedby the long lifetimesof these substances,The ozone"hole" is an annuallyrecurring decrease in ozonelevels 12-20km abovethe Antarctic in spring. Concentrationsbegin to declinein September,reach a low in Octobel and recoveragain in November.A numberof theories lravebeen plesented to explainthe seasonalnature ofthe Antarctic ozoneloss. All arebased on the uniquemeteorological isolation and extlemecold of the stratosphere.Recent data strongly indicate T ltc cortccntratiortsof halocorlnns, nrcastrcd al that increasingchloline levels,mainly from CFCs,are responsible Cape Grint fol the Antalctic ozonehole.
Growthof halocarbonsat GapeGrim Mixingratio (ppt) carriitF;lpt 400
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ec|sF{F-luc6rea
200
cct2FccrFs (F:113) - *tlffi #s#d#tC#f'
'78 '80 '82 'a4 '86 '88 Year
l6 | | 2OO-250dobson units I tso-zoo dobsonunits ffi <1So dobsonunits
Sprittg .sn'atoslth er ic ozone lettels over Antarctica Nuclear war Climaticeffects Under a grantfi'om the AustralianDepartment of ForeignAffairs, an activeresearch project has been undertaken to attemptto quantify the possibleclimatic effectsin the southemhemisphere of a major nuclearwar fought in the northernhemisphere. Early co-operationwith scientistsat the Los Alamos National Laboratoryin New Mexico establishedan estimationof the amountof smokefrom nuclearwar-induced fires which might be transportedat high altitudesinto the southemhemisphere. For a wal fought in the northernspring or summer,this was found to be sufficientto absorbsome 20-30Vo of the incoming sunlightat heightsof 1G-I5 km. Evidencefrom paststudies of volcanicdust, and recentchemical studies in the U.S. suggeststhat this amount of smokemay be presentin the southernhemisphere for up to a year or so after injection. Threedifferent types of climatemodels have been used to investigatethe suface climatic effects.One is a mesoscalemodel, developedat ColoradoState University and usedat the Division for air pollution studies,The secondis a coupledone-dimensional atmosphere-oceanmodel which was usedto estimatethe resulting cooling of the oceansurface. The third is the AustralianNumerical MeteorologicalResearch Centre Global SpectralModel, which is suitablefor fully three-dimensionalclimate simulations.The mesoscalemodel was usedfor a large numberof sensitivitytests which providedinfolmation aboutthe best way to usethe more expensiveANMRC model.
t7 Resultsfrom the global model have shown that with the moderate amount of smoke likely to be overhead,serious climatic effects can be expected.Soil surfacecooling due to the smoke at Australian latitudes was found to averagearound 3-6oC during the middle of the day and around l-2oC at night. A large rainfall decreaseoccurred in the tropics and in the summer monsoon regions of both hemispheres.Similar effects occurred for both Januaryconditions in the southernhemisphere and for July conditionsin the northernhemisphere. Reductions in crop productivity of the order of 30Voare to be expectedmainly due to the large reduction of rainfall. Reductions in sunlightfor photosynthesis,loss of variousinputs to agriculture such as fertilizers and pesticidesand increasesin damaging ultraviolet radiation due to ozone destruction would be expectedto further reduceproductivity. Besidesthe profound importanceof theseresults in relation to the potential consequencesof nuclear war, the studieshave for the first time usedthe ANMRC model for studying substantial climatic changesand give confidence in the potential application of this model to studiesof the climatic impactof the greenhouse effect.Such a study is now underway.
Nuclearfireball modelling Surfacenuclear explosions are capable oflofting large amountsof solid material into the upper atmosphere.American nuclear tests prior to the 1963atmospheric test ban showedthat between30 and 300 thousandtonnes of surfacematerial could be lofted per megatonof explosiveyield. Investigationsat the Division of AtmosphericResearch have examined the possibilitythat surface nuclearexplosions over fuel dumps,coal fields or regionsof peaty soils might carry vast quantities of soot into the upper atmosphere, adding to the climatic effect producedby smoke plumes from massfires. This mechanism,if effective,would be of particular importance to the southernhemisphere because the normal loss and delay mechanismsoperating on smoke plumes would not occur. This would lead to greatly increasedsoot amounts in the upper atmosphere,with enhanceddetrimental climatic effects in our latitudes.
A numerical model of the ascendingstage of a nuclear fireball has been developedand simulations compare favourably with availabledata from mid-latitudeexplosions. A chemical schemefor the uptake of carbon and combustion of soot particles in the fireball has been developedand incorporated into the model. Both standardruns with the model and sensitivity studiesfor a range of conditions indicate that all the soot particles within the fireball burn up as the hot fireball ascendsin the air and no soot is releasedinto the upper atmosphere.It thus appearsthat l8 this mechanismwill not contributeextra soot to the upper atmosphereafter a nuclearwar. Estimatesof the climatic effects should thereforebe basedon soot production from fires, carried into the upperatmosphere by smokeplumes, and to a lesserextent on non-sooty dust particles carried aloft by the fireballs. Further work hasbeen carried out with the fireball model to examinethe rateof injectionof nitrogenoxides into the upper atmospherefrom the fireballs.Preliminary findings indicatethat the ratecalculated from this model is substantiallyless than that estimatedby previousworkers. Thus depletionof ozonein the upper atmospheredue to nitrogen oxides from the nuclear explosionsmay be lessthan originally thought.It shouldbe noted however, that there are other processesinvolved in the potential destructionof ozonefollowing a nuclearwar.
^40 E .t
.c '6 30 G o t .9(, G20 "E o o Elo lt
The influence of bomb yield ort thefinal clond height of a fireball
Teleconnectionpatterns Large-scaledynamical processesof the extra-tropical troposphere are usuallyconsidered as processesin which the fluctuationshave scalesgreater than about 250 km and periods larger than about one day. Within this range,there exists a wide varietyof disturbances including relatively small-scaleextra-tropical cyclones or lows, anticyclonesor highs,blocking dipolesconsisting ofhighJow pairsaligned in the north-southdirection and very large-scale teleconnectionpatterns which may be of hemisphericor even global extent. Teleconnectionrefers to the fact that the climate in one part of the world may be related to the climate in a distant region through theselarge-scale features of the circulation.
T9 Teleconnectionpatterns have profound effects on the weatherand climate,producing severe storms in someregions and droughtsin others.A theoryof the fotmation of anomalouscirculations due to atmosphericteleconnection patterns has been developed and comparedwith observationsfor the northernand southern hemispheres.For someteleconnection pattems such as the western Atlantic northernhemisphere pattern, topography plays a very importantrole. For others,such as the Pacific North American patternit playsonly an indirect role in the growing stagesof the pattern.Detailed studies have been canied out usinga variety of theoriesand numericalmodels to elucidatethe role of topography in the formationof teleconnectionpatterns. The modelling of climateis further discussedin the Water Resourcessection of this report.
20 AtmosphericPollution
Introduction This programstudies the atmosphereand surfaceand source characteristicswhich influenceair pollution and bushfires.It is developingimproved methods of predictingthe local and regional impactof pollutantsource emissions and the outbreakand spread ofbushfiresforboth planningand regulatorypurposes as well as for disastermanagement. Theoreticalanalysis, numerical model experiments,laboratory experimentsand field measurcmentsare usedin the investigations. The focus is on identifying sourcesof pollution and the way in which it is transportedand dispersedby local artdregional winds in the boundarylayer. Chemical transformation among pollutant speciesand the interactionbetween local winds,bushfire dynamicsand topographyare being studied. An efficient three-dimensionalmesoscale model hasrecently been developed.The model hasnow beensuccessfully tested in a nestedmode for severalproblems of flow over complexterrain.
LatrobeValley Airshed Study After I I years of operation the Latrobe Valley Airshed Study has been completed.The study was carried out in collaboration with personnelfrom the Applied Meteorology and Tropospheric ChemistryGroups and severalother organisations. It hasled to advancesin the modelling of visibility reductiondue to fine particles,photochemical ozone formation and long-range transport of emissionsfrom Melboume,The modelsincluded Lagrangian photochemical-trajectory,multi-level box, Gaussianplume, puff diffusion and grid-pointprognostic types. In collaborationwith the ChisholmInstitute of Technology,diagnostic wind field modelling- the basisof the Lagrangianand puff models- was advancedto include effects of stableambient temperaturefields. A number of Latrobe Valley field studies have been undertaken.
Plumetracking studies The final two Experimentswere successfullyundertaken in winter 1985and summer 1986in collaborationwith the StateElectricity Commissionof Victoria (SECV). A massiveset of upperair and surfacemeteorological and air quality monitoringdata has been assembled.The Experiments,funded by the NationalEnergy Research,Development and DemonstrationCouncil (NERDDC),
21 havebeen extremely important for model developmentby participantsin the AirsheciStuciy. The CSIRC researchaircraft was usedto track the pathsof power stationplumes over distances of 100km to the eastand west.Additional upperair datawere collectedby balloon soundingand extensivesurface observations weremade. A three-dimensionalmesoscale model hasbeen used to further understandingof flows observedduring this study.Using a 5 km grid lengthover a 250 x 250 km domain,the model is successful in predictingthe flows which dominatethe region in the warmer months,in palticularthe seabreezes from the eastand southcoasts which meetnear Morwell in the late afternoon.Anomalous westerlywinds in the morning hours,under a weak norlheasterly synopticpressure gradient, were found to resultfrom an inertial oscillationof the rcmnantsof the previousday's seabreeze and slopewind circulations.The useof radiativeconditions at lateral boundarieswas necessaryfor realisticresults in the complex terrainand enabled simulations to run for 48 hours. Understandingand prediction of suchcomplex wind fields is importantflom the standpointof pollutantdispersal in the Valley. A Lagrangianparticle dispersion model, driven by wind and turbulencestatistics from the mesoscalemodel, has been used to investigatethis problem.With the currentdistribution of emitters, the seabreeze advects clean maritime air up the Valley to Yallourn and beyond,but the additionof sourcestowards the
Sintulation of phnte dispersion in tlrc Lat'obe Valley. Particles u,ere releasedfi'ont sources at M oru,ell pou,er statio rt antJ Austral ian Paper M il Is. T he lower stack lrciglt at APM results itt a diffcrent clirectiott of partic le u'ansport.fi onr tlrut of partic Ie.rfi'ont tlrc lig her Moru,ell stack.
22 coastlinewould causepollutant concentrations to rise as the sea breezemoves inland. In stablenight-time conditions when thereis little mixing of plumesto groundlevel, strongvertical wind shear fiom tenain effects can lead to markedly different trajectories for plumesfrom sourceswith differing effectivestack heights.
LatrobeValley smog precursor study It is only possible to understandand accuratelymodel photochemicalozone production with, amongstother information, a knowledgeof the sourcesand concentrationsof reactive hydrocarbonsand nitrogenoxides within the air. Thus developmentof any scenariosfor ozone exceedencesin the Latrobe Valley is dependenton reliable information on these. Unforlunatelyat the time of this study,unlike other air pollution measurements,for exampleozone and local visualdistance (LVD), no adequatemethod existed for routine measurementof reactive hydrocarbonsin the regional atmosphere.Early attempts to measurenon-methanic hydrocarbons in the Latrobe Valley were hamperedby insurmountabletechnical difficulties associatedwith equipment.These measurements led to the erroneousconclusion that therewas around400 ppbC (ppb = lO-e)of non-methanic hydrocarbons(NMHC) in rural air in the Valley, a valueperhaps twenty times higher than is now accepted.The first accurate informationon NMHC levels iq rural air in the LatrobeValley (Cz The nnltile laborutorl' was obtainedwhen reactivehydrocarbons to Cro) were Itousittgtlrc au tonntic measuredat the MinniedaleRd Air Quality Monitoring Station specicrtitrygas during autumn 1986and summer-autumn1987 using an cltonntograplt ott sitc irt tlrc Lau'obe Vallet'. automaticspeciating gas chromatograph developed at the Division.
23 Subsequentlyin the summerof 1988,grab samplingof NMHCs was conductedat groundsites and from an aircraftin the Latrobe Valley. Sampleswere also takenin a forestarea and from the Yallourn opencut coal field to make a preliminaryassessment of potentialspecial soul'ces of hydrocarbons.The dataobtained gave the first clearpicture ofthe spatialdistribution and variability of NMHCs in the Valley. ' <-: On photochemicalsmog pronedays, the measurementsshowed around2O to 3OppbC of Cz to Cto hydrocarbonswith little systematicvariation both with heightand aroundthe Valley. The mix of hydrocarbonsobserved, when comparedwith emission mixes for Sydneyand the easternsuburbs of Melbourne,appeared to be alreadyaged by photochemicalprocesses. These aircraft and day-timemeasurements were in somecases upwind of the hydrocarbonsources. These observations have been interpreted as being due to the presenceof a backgroundNMHC level in air over south-easternAustralia before it enteredthe Valley. This backgroundlevel was probablydue to the long traverseofthe air over land in the northerlyair flow that coincidedwith smog prone conditionsduring thesesummer-autumn months. Anthropogenic hydrocarbonsemissions are relatedto populationdensity. Consequently,hydrocarbon emissions per unit areado not vary significantlyfrom thosein the Valley for otherrural areasof Victoria and southernNew SouthWales. Air would havebeen exposedto theserural hydrocarbonemissions for severaldays beforeit enteredthe Valley. In forestedregions ofthe Valley naturalreactive hydrocarbons from vegetation,including isopreneand 1,8Cineole (eucalyptus oil) contdbutedone third to one half of the C2 to C t o atmospheric hydrocarbonconcentration. These observations provide evidence that,as well as local emissions,regional transport and natural emissionscontribute to photochemicalozone production in the LatrobeValley. With this precursorinformation available as well as the natural NOx emission inventory, a collaborative effort on computermodelling of photochemicalsmog in the LatrobeValley was setup betweenthe EPAV and CSIRO. The model took into account40 chemicalspecies reacting through 83 pathways.Conditions existing during a 3-daysmog episode during 1988were fed into the model.The Valley is proneto such long-livedepisodes because of its "boxed in" nature.During this episode,when the Valley was shut off from outside sources,the observed1-hour maximum ozonelevels at rural sitesnot influencedby power stationemissions were 36 ppb,44 ppb, and 50 ppb on the threedays. On 29 Januarythe maximum measuredozone concentration in the Valley was 59 ppb, but the recordingstation in questionis thought to havebeen influenced by power stationemissions.
z+ A 3-day smogepisode in the Valley 70
60
50 ;; ,-\ 40
30
20
Assunittg contparable 10 eluantitiesof nanu'al and artificial precu'sors (NO t and rcactive organic 27 Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan carbons), ntodelling of o trapped enissions gave noon noon pretlicted letel.r clo.seto oltserved otrcs.
Modelling reflectedthe actualobserved ozone levels fairly accuratelyas the graphindicates. Moreover, it showedthat the ozonelevels were NOx-limited- that is, the amountof ozone producedwas restrictedby the availabilityof NO1 ratherthan by that of hydrocarbons.In this situationwhere half the surface-emittedNOx camefrom naturalsources, ozone levels would be approximatelyreduced by one+hirdif thesenatural sourceswere absent.On the other hand,modelling showedthat halving (or doubling)the hydrocarbonfigure would havevery little effect on the ozone levels reached.
Aerosol/Visibilitystudy This projectaimed at determiningthe sourcesof aerosolon days when visibility in the Latrobe Valley falls below the designated acceptedlevel. The Study was fundedjointly by DAR, NERDDC and the SECV. Propertiesof sub-micrometreaerosol particles werc determinedeither by irt-situsampling or by subsequent Iaboratoryanalysis of samplestaken at threesites in the Valley. Physicaland chemicalpropefties peculiar to individual sourcesof aerosolin the Valley were usedto determinethe role playedby thesesources in determiningatmospheric visibility. Aerosol types readily identifiedinclude sea salt, soil dust,photochemical (smog) products,power stationemissions and effluentfrom biomass
25 burning.An unexpectedlylarge proportion ofaerosol on occasions of low visibility appearsto be composedof organichydrocarbon material.At this stagethe major sourceof this aerosolcannot be quantitativelyidentified. However, there is considerable circumstantialevidence suggesting that it is bushand grassfires.
Air-flow in the SofiaVale Vertical stability in the atmosphereis an importantcontrolling factor for many typesof meteorologicalphenomena. It is of particularimportance in confinedregions such as the Latrobe Valley in Victoria and the Vale of Sofia in Bulgaria.As part of an internationalexchange scheme the Division hasundertaken a studyof the Vale in collaborationwith the BulgarianAcademy of Science. The valueof sucha collaborativeprogram to Australiais that it enablesthe theory and the laboratorymodelling techniques developedat the Division to be testedin an areaof extremely complexterrain with the validatoryfield work beingcarried out by theBulsarians.
1
Cottstt'uction of a ntodel oJ the Sofia Valc irt Bulgaria
Significantsources of industrialand urbanatmospheric pollution are presentin the Vale, and on occasionsof synopticblocking air stagnatesbelow the crestline of adjacentmountains. Frequently occurringconditions of light winds, cloudlessskies, stable stratificationand strongsurface heat flux causethe diurnal developmentof a well-structuredconvective boundary layer. The
26 heightof this layer plays an importantrole in determiningthe ability of the atmosphereto dispersepollution. The diurnal developmentis controlledby the amountof sensibleheat liberated at the earth'ssurface and thereforeit is importantto identify the factorsinfluencing the surfaceheat flux. Routinemeteorological observationshave been used to estimatethis heatflux and its diurnal developmentat differenttimes of year.This hasenabled determinationof convectiveboundary layer heights. As part of the study,a I cm : 200 m horizontalscale model of the Vale was constructedand then towed througha laboratorywater tank.This techniquehas important relevance both to scientific understandingof flow patternsover complexterrain and to practicalproblems of locatingatmospheric pollution and identifying its sources.The experimenthas enabled tentative hypothesesto be maderegarding wind directionand pollution levels in the Vale. The informationshould be of assistancein planningvalidatory field studiesduring periodsof stable conditionsand light prevailingwinds.
Acid rain in the Northern Territory It hasbeen known for sometime that thereis a widespread occurrenceof acidic rainwaterin the Northem Territory. Water from individual stormshas given pH readingsas low as 3.5. Scientistsfrom the Division havestudied the sourceof this acidity in collaborationwith the NorthernTerritory Office of the Supervising Scientist. A high-performanceliquid chromatographwas usedto identify and measurethe typesof acid presentin rainwatersamples
concentration ,/ / ,' (micromoles eet D / // // ,/ ,/,/,/ ,/ / ,/,/,/ ,/,/ ,//r/ ,/,/ / ,/,/,/ / ,/ / // / / ,/ //,/ Acids in Jabirilrain
.o*s*"o.'a^;ilroo'l"rs The average pH of rain- u,ater collected at Jahiru u,as4.3. Most of tlrc acidity conte s front fornic ac id.
27 collectedat Jabiru.Results showed that formic acid and acetic acid contributemost to acidity.The level of sulfuric acid, which is the major contributol to acid rain in industrialregions, was consistentlylow. Plantsare thought to be the sourceof the acidspresent in the rainwater.Isoprene makes up more than one third of complex hydrocarbonsreleased by plants.This compoundis particularly volatile and reactiveat the high temperaturesfound in tropical regionsand it is suggestedthat underthe actionof sunlightit forms olganic acids.Bush and grassfires may also contribute appreciableamounts of compoundsthat turn into organicacids. In orderto investigatethe isoprenemore thoroughly,a seriesof air sampleswere taken on the ground and from the CSIRO research airclaft. At groundlevel, isopreneconcentrations offrom one to severalparts per billion by volume weredetected. Concentrations decreasedwith altitudeand wereconsistently lower at high altitude.Carbon monoxide is one of the break-downproducts of isoprene.Greater than normal concentrationsof this gaswere found at all altitudes. Analysis of cloud-waterdroplets gave an averagepH of lessthan that of the lain samplescollected on the ground.The difference may be due to dilution of the acid as the waterdroplets in clouds grow to laindlop size.About 60Voof thetotal acidity in both cloud droplets and rainwatel is due to formic acid and 20Voto acetic acid.Other organic acids were presentand both nitrateand sulfate contributeto the acidity. Ground-levelmeasurements of aerosoland gascompositions fitted in with thesefindings. Scientistshave concluded that most of the chemicalsfound in air in the NorthernTerritory come from natural sources.Sulfate is the onlv man-madesource of rain-wateracidity in tropicalAustralia.
Turbulentdispersion Within the wider contextof providing a unified statistical treatmentof turbulentdispersion for arbitraryflow fields and arbitrarysoul'ce distributions, research has focused on two areas. The first of theseconcems fluctuations in concentrationabout the meanvalue due to the inherentstochastic nature of turbulenceand turbulentdispersion. Such fluctuations are importantbecause they are generally at least as large as the mean value and therefore representan inherentlimit on the certaintyof both measurements and model predictionsof the mean.They alsoenter into the physicsof the analysisof phenomenasuch as chemicalreactions (includingfire and explosions)in turbulentflow and influencethe responseof biological and mechanicalentities to pollutants.
28 The secondconcerns dispersion in the convectiveboundary layer, which underAustralian conditions often accountsfor the highest groundJevelpollution levelsfrom largeelevated point sources suchas power stationsand smelters.Due to the large,energetic eddieswhich dominateturbulence under these conditions, the usualtwo-stage approach to plume dispersion- a near-field buoyancy-dominatedstage and a far-field stagedominated by atmosphericturbulence - is lessappropriate. A more unified approachis calledfor in which the statisticalproperties of the spatialand temporaldistribution of pollutantsare studied, describedand modelledin termsof thejoint effectsof plume buoyancyand atmosphericturbulence. Theseproblems are being examinedthrough an interactive combinationof theoretical,laboratory and field studies. The theoreticalwork hasprogressed on two fronts.Firstly, fundamentalstudies of fluid accelerationsprovide both parameter inputsand justification for developinga Lagrangianmathematical model of turbulentdispersion. A numberof new basicresults have beenfound. Secondly,the working model ofdispersionhas been usedin a numberof complexflows to predictmean pollutant concentrations.However, the concentrationfluctuations, which are output from newermore complexLagrangian models, are not yet well understood.The mean-concentrationmodels have been validatedagainst wind-tunnel data, laboratory data and field experiments,all of which are part of the overall program. The concentration-fluctuationmodels had not previouslybeen well enoughdefined to warrantcomparisons with experiment. However,the fundamentalwork hasgreatly aided formulation and the comparison(with wind-tunneldata) is now feasibleand will lead to working modelsfor concentrationfluctuations. Laboratoryexperiments provide a bridgebetween theory and field observations.Dispersion experiments in a wind tunnel provide basicdata on concentrationfluctuations which are usedto test and validatetheory. I aboratorymeasurements of dispersionin a convectiveboundary layer will be undertakenin a new convectiontank that is being built as part of a 3 year researchfellowship funded by the State Electricity Commissionof Victotia (SECV). A novel featureof the 3.2mx 1.6m x 0.8 m deepglass-walled convection tank is the useof salinesolutions to generatethe buoyancyflux normally producedby heat.This widensthe rangeof conditionsthat can be modelledand simplifiesthe operationof the apparatus. The model will initially be usedto studythe interactionbetween the turbulencestructure of the convectiveboundary layer and that generatedby the rising buoyantplume with a view to obtaininga full parametricdescription of buoyantplume dispersion.Further work will be directedtowards measurements of concentration
29 fluctuations.These results will aid the developmentof improved dispersion models by providing much more complete sets of data than are possible in the ever-changingatmosphere. Laboratory modelling of the atmosphereis further referred to in the Water ResourcesSection of this report.
Saline sohttions, added tlrottgh a porotts ntcntbratrc at tlte top of tlrc tank are used to getterate tlrc buoyancyflu-r nornuLly produced lry heat. Cotnectite cells catt he set up itt lltis process and tlrc tar* nrinics thc atnto.splrcric boundary layer upside dou'n.
Finally, preparationshave been in progressfor a major field study of the dispersionof a large buoyantpoint sourceunder convective conditions.This experimentat Tarongpower stationin Queenslandis fundedby NERDDC and is a collaborativeventure which aimsto provide a setof dispersiondata. It is hopedthat this setof data,through scaling by appropriatemeteorological and emissionparameters, will be applicableto other locationsand will provide a testbed for laboratoryand theoreticalstudies.
Cold frontsmodelling The interaction of summertime cold fronts with a diurnally heated land masshas been studied using two-and three-dimensional models.This studyhas advanced understanding offrontal movementto the stagewhere convective heating of the boundary layer over land is now known to changedramatically the basic structureof a front and henceits modeof propagation.During the Cold Fronts ResearchProgram, two categoriesof fronts differing in basiclow level structurewere observed and it now appearsthat the presenceor lack of boundarylayer heatingis largely responsiblefor thesedifferences. Insight hasalso been gained into the meansby which fronts approachingthe coastin afternoonand early eveninghours appear to accelerategreatly along the southwestVictorian coastline.In preflontalsituations, a day-timepressure trough develops at the coastlineor just inland if thereis a seabreeze. This is due to the
30 diurnal pressurefall over land.Experiments show that the typical frontal characteristics- wind shift, temperaturefall and pressure rise - of an approachingfront may be transferredat some stageto the coastlinetrough, which thenbecomes the main front. The organisationofan offshorefrontal systemin sucha way is also responsiblefor the largepercentage of summertimefronts which passthrough Melbourne in the aftemoonand early eveninghours.
Flow over complexterrain The formationmechanisms of the Melbourneeddy havebeen clarified in a seriesof numericalsimulations, performed jointly with the MeteorologicalResearch Institute of Japan(MRI). The MRI mesoscalemodel was usedwith a l0 km outer meshand a 5 km innermesh. Two differentcyclonic eddieswith separate formationmechanisms were identified. The first is generatedby vorticity shedfrom the upstreamAustralian Alps, and corresponds to earlierlaboratory simulations. Day-time anabaticeffects were found to enhancethe strengthofthe eddy.The secondtype of eddy is generatedby interaction of the sea-breezefront with a weak synopticnorthwesterly flow. The MRI model was also usedto study flow over the complex temainof the LatrobeValley, with particularattention given to sea-breezebehaviour. For negligibleprescribed background synopticflow, therewas little differencebetween 5 km resolution nestedand non-nestedpredictions. The arrival times of the sea-breezesin the Latrobe Valley were found to be in good agreementwith observations.With a moderatenorth easterly synopticflow the nestedsimulation revealed upstream orographic effects. In particular a weak nocturnal eddy formed over the Latrobe Valley, and the eastcoast sea-breezewas retardedin agreementwith observations.The eddy formation probably dependson both wake and diurnal heating effects.
Bushfiremeteorology A National Bushfire Model which featuresthe use of computer colour graphicsis being developed.Dynamic optimisationis incorporatedso that model parameterscan be altered when field dataindicate discrepancies between model predictionsand real-time wind or fire-front observations.It is scale-freeso it is able to handle a small fire in a single paddock as well as a major conflagrationsuch as Ash Wednesday. The National Bushfire ResearchUnit conductedfield experiments on NorthernTerritory grasslandsduring August 1986.Statistical analysisof the resultsindicated that existingbushfire models performedpoorly. It suggests,however, that the Kalman filter would perform well as an optimising tool. The Kalman filter is a
3l statisticaltechnique designed to optimisethe outputof a systemby compadngthe discrepancybetween observations and predictions and then alteringthe predictionsin order to minimise the error. This hasbeen incorporated into the proposeddesign of the NationalBushfire Model. Analysis of pastmeteolological data reveals that yearsof extreme bushfiredanger are characterizedby low atmospherichumidity. To predictbushfire danger under future climatic scenarios theleforerequires detailed knowledge of the future atmospheric A flou' diag ram sltou' ittg the ntodules contpri.sittgt he moisture,in particular,relative humidity. This is the atmospheric National Busltfit'e Mode l. variablemost critical in determininglong-term bushfire danger.
Inputs Processing 0utputs
Input NMGgrid f rorn zoomfacitity disk slofage Fuettype
Firespread an0 perimeter
Fire -fron t information
Inputfrom economicmodule
32 RemoteSensing
Introduction The flows of solarand thermalterrestlial radiation through the atmosphereand their interactionswith the atmosphereand land and oceansudaces are what, in the first instance,determine the climate in which we live. Studyingthese processes is therefore vital to our understandingof climate and climatechange, particularlyat the earth'ssurface. Modern researchin this areainvolves remote sensing techniques flom satellites,aircraft and the surface.Recent emphasis at the Division hasbeen on meteorologicalsatellites as well as ground-basedlaser ranging (lidar). Sensorson satellitesnormally operateat wavelengthsfrom the visible to the microwaveand collect informationabout the earth's atmospherc,oceans, land and ice surfaces.These satellites monitor the planetat a varietyof altitudesfrom low polar (approximately 200 km) to high equatorial(approximately 36 000 km). The informationis commonly processedinto the form of a photographicimage or collectedas an arrayof digital data. The Division of AtmosphericResearch is also involved with developing,and whereappropriate, commercializing technology for investigatingclimate and the naturalenvironment. Activities haveincluded the designof new space-borneinstruments, developmentof lidars as well as the demonstrationof new value-addedproducts and designof imageprocessing from existingoperational satellites. The developmentof CSIDA (the CSIRO Systemfor Interactive Data Analysis)has continued. It is now a completesystem for receivingand processingmeteorological satellite data and itself hascommercial potential. A detaileddescription of CSIDA appearcin the Division's previousresearch report.
Lidar applications Instrumentation The Divisional ruby lidar hasbeen upgraded with improvements to the optical system,electronics and alignmentsystems. The data acquisitionsystem has been completely redesigned and now works from a PC system.New depolarizationequipment has been added to the ruby lidar for more accurateprofiles. A commerciallidar for cloud baseand other measurementsis being developedand partially fundedby the TasmanianDevelopment Authority. The
JJ design,simulations and the softwarepackage were suppliedby the Division with additionalfunding being suppliedby Sirotech and the CapeGrim BaselineStation. The prototypeinstrument will be usedfol scientificinvestigations at CapeGrim in Tasmania.
The nalrow-beaminflaled filter ladiometersdeveloped at the Division have beenupdated and continueto be used.The Division's infraredtuneable lidal hasalso beenimproved. Commelcialcollaborative opportunities are being soughtto further developthis instl'ument.
Lidar. Lidar provides a techniquefor measuringthe properties of the atmosphereat rangesof up to 30 km. In the study of atmospheric pollution, it may be usedto track emissionand dispersionof plumes from indusffial sites, and to measu'reconcentrations of a numberof pollutantsincluding sulfur dioxide,nitrogen dioxide, ozone and various organic molecules. Lidar may be operatedfrom the ground as well as from aeroplanes and satellites. Development of more sophisticatedlidars allows measurementof humidity, wind velocity and turbulence.It also permits detection and measurementof molecules which occur in very low concentmtions.The concentrationof stratosphericozone may be determined using lidar. The lidar instrumentemploys a laser to send pulsesof light into the atmosphere.Aerosols and cloud particles reflect the light back into an optical telescopeconnected to a processingsystem which allows the data to be analvsed.
Cloudradiation studies Cloudsare madeup of waterdroplets and ice crystals.The scatteringand absorptionof atmosphericradiation can at times be very strong.Many cloudstransmit less than 5070of solar radiation.Without the presenceof cloudsin the atmosphere,the meansurface temperature of the earthwould be 15oCwarmer. While groundbased lidar hasbeen the main tool for studying clouds,aircraft and satellitemeasurements have also been used. Long term researchis being conductedto obtain a better understandingofthe lelationsbetween cloud extinction,liquid watercontent and particlemode radiusin layer clouds.Such an understandingis basicto the properparameterization of cloud optical propertiesin climatemodels and to the climate feedback propeftiesof theseclouds in any global warming. Progresshas been made on the vital role of particlesize and its variationwith tempelaturein cirlus clouds.An important discoveryhas been the presenceoflayers ofcirrus containing
34 much smallerparticles than consideredpossible. These layers will radiativelytend to havea cooling effect on the atmosphere.Sizing and countingof particlesfrom many replicatapes taken in situ in cirrus in US missionsand analysedat the Division shows,for the first time, the presenceof many small columns,bullets and needle crystals.Analysis and interpretationof NASA dataobtained by a lidar and scanningradiometer overflying cirrus,together with in situ cloud physicsmicrophysical data, revealed the presenceof layersof small crystals(5-10 pm radius). Analysisof cloud microphysicaldata has revealed the general dominanceof cloud particlesize in determiningthe cloud optical properties.A deepprecipitating system with 50 timesthe liquid water contenthas a similar volume extinctioncoefficient to boundarylayer stratocumulusdue of the presenceof largeprecip- itating particlesin the former clouds.A parameterizationof cirrus cloud in tems of solaralbedo, infrared emittance and the global temperaturechange has been devised based on previouslidar/rad- iometer(LIRAD) observationsof cirrus cloudstaken at Aspendale. A study hasalso beendone using satellitedata and LIRAD ground -baseddata at Aspendale.The 3.7 pm and 1l pm wave-length radiancesfrom cinus were comparedwith simultaneous ground-basedlidal measurementsof the opticaldepth. It was found that the differencebetween the two channelradiances was relatedto the ground-basedoptical depth in a mannerwhich agreedreasonably well with theoreticalmodels. Most of the abovestudies have been undertaken in collaboration with variousU.S. colleagues,emphasising the internationalnature of thisclimate work.
300
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35 Supportstudies for a satellitewind lidar Division scientistswere involved in collaborativework with NASA in 1986to studythe microphysicaland backscatter propertiesof the southernhemisphere aerosol using ground-based lidar and aerosolsensors. The backscatterprofiles, taken in valious locationsbetween 4oS and 4loS, agreedquite well with calculationsfrom aerosolsize distributions measured on the CSIRO F-27 researchaircraft by colleaguesin the Global AtmosphericChange Program. The NASA ContinuousWave (CW) COz coherentlidar, on board the aircraft gave low backscattervalues at 10.6pm, in agreementwith the aerosoldata. The low southernhemisphere values have importantimplications for the designof a satellitedoppler lidar. The Division is involved with simulatingcloud back-scatterfor the NASA Lidar-In-SpaceTechnology Experiment to be conductedin 1993.Simulations of backscatterfrom cloudsfor a satellitelidar haveindicated that multiple scatteringwill result in a significantimprovement to the transmissionof lidar pulses throushclouds.
Satelliteapplications Introduction Accuratenumerical modelling of the world's weatherand climate and our understandingof their physicalprocesses are dependent on the availabilityof high quality datadescribing the earth-atmosphere-oceansystem. Operational satellites provide the only meansby which sufficientglobal datacan be providedat the fi'equencyrequired. Studiesare aimed at the useful interpretation of data obtained from meteorological satellites.Data from the Division's satelliteleception system are being usedin a numberof researchprojects involving the interactionof solarand thermal radiation with the atmosphere,land and ocean.These efforts are an importantpart of the Division's climate changeprogram. One of the major thrustsis to provide a satellitedata base for the investigationand detectionof regionalclimate change within Australia. The work involvesactive participation in importantinternational programsincluding NASA's Earth ObservationSystem (EOS), the ISCCP (InternationalSatellite Cloud Climatology Program), ECLIPS (ExperimentalCloud-based Lidar Pilot Study)and the ERS-l programof ESA (EuropeanSpace Agency). There are also importantinteractions with primary industry. The scientificeffort is alsobalanced by a "spacehardware" programin which supportis given to Australianindustry involved in the building of appropriateinstrumentation. Space hardware for the ERS-1 satellitehas been built in Adelaide,a prototypefor a
36 The AdvanccdTIROS satellite
new satelliteinstrument is underdevelopment in Canberraand further transferof spacetechnology to Australianindustry is underway.
Vegetationproperties The index of vegetation greenness,NDVI (normalised difference vegetationindex) is being usedto study grasslandfire potential in rural areasof Victoria in collaborationwith the Victorian CountryFire Authority. The NDVI is subjectto errorscaused by radiationscattering in the atmosphereand effort hasbeen put into devisingcorrections for theseert'ors. A fast radiativetransfer schemefor rapid calculationof correctionshas been developed andis now in use.
Flood monitoring The potentialuse of meteorologicalsatellite data in the monitoring of flood watersin inland Australia is underinvestigation. The extensiverainfall over the centralAustralian regions in the last threeyears has provided a usefuldata set for this study. Preliminarywork showsthat the operationalmeteorological satellitescan give detailson the movementof flood watersas well as the extentof the floodins.
Antarcticsatellite remote sensing In conjunctionwith the Glaciology Sectionof the Antarctic Division, NOAA AVHRR imageryis being usedto detectopen waterpolynyas (areas ofopen water surroundedby seaice), thin ice typesand ice thicknesswithin the Antarctic sea-icezone. The extentand thicknessof sea-iceforms an importantcontrol on the oceanicheat loss and surfacealbedo which in turn influencesthe globalclimate, Two studieshave shown that, within the Antarctic sea-icezone, the concentrationof openwater and thin sea-iceare
5I the dominantfactors affecting the exchangeofheat from oceanto atmospherethus influencingcyclogenesis and cyclolysis. Algorithms underdevelopment ale to be usedfor identifying legionsof potentialhigh latitudesynoptic development.
Other applications New applicationsof AVHRR (AdvancedVery High Resolution Radiometer)satellite data have been developed. These include a methodfor detectinghazardous volcanic eruption clouds and a simplescheme for determiningevaporation from arid zonelakes. Joint wolk with the Division of Oceanographyhas continued on studiesof the Leeuwin current,a warrn,poleward current flowing off the westemAustralian coast.
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C ontp ut e r -e t t hat tc ed sa te I I it e Satelliteatlas innges showirtg tlre Over the next threeyears all the usefulmeteorological satellite evaporating u,atersof Lake Eyre data will be combinedinto a satelliteatlas of Australia.This will includeproducts such as seasonalvalues of NDVI, land and sea surfacetemperature, evaporation and clouds.The atlasaims to lemonstratehow satellitedata can be appliedto various communityand industrialproblems.
Satelliteinstrumentation Along Track ScanningRadiometer The Australianinvolvement in the Along Track Scanning Radiometer(ATSR) programcontinues. The instrumentis a joint effort betweenthe RutherfordAppleton Laboratoryin the U.K., C.R.P.E.(Centre de Recherchesen Physiquede I'Environnement
38 Prelintirtary h'orkfor tlrc ATSRprogrgnt A radionrcter on ltoartl the CSIRO research sltip, tlrc RV Franklin, i.suscd to test ctut'ent teclaique.sfor tleternititry sea sutfacc lentperatu'esfront space.
Terresteet Plan6taire)in Franceand CSIRO.The ATSR is a new generationinfrared and microwaveradiometer designed to measuresea sufface temperature from spacewith an accuracyof betterthan 0.3oC. The instrumentwill be launchedfrom Kourou in FrenchGuyana by the EuropeanSpace Agency (ESA) on their first remotesensing satellite ERS- l. Launch is currentlyplanned for late 1990.
The Division is taking a leadingrole in the preJaunchactivities requiredfor deriving seasurface temperature from the satellite data,organising ship and airbornecampaigns for the validationof the satelliteproducts and developingthe meansfor comparing infraled dataand productsfrom two or more differentsatellites. The preliminarywork for ATSR includesthe useof ship-borne radiometersto testthe cul'renttechniques for deriving seasurface temperaturesfrom space.Two cruisesonthe RV Franklinhave been undertaken,one in the Coral Sea and one off the west coast of Australia.Joint studiesof air-seainteraction and the energy budgetof the seasurface have been started with the CSIRO Divisionsof EnvironmentalMechanics and Oceanography,the
39 Universityof Tasmaniaand Curtin University.Radiometer and coincidentsatellite data have been collected southeast of Papua New Guineaand on the equatornorth of Australia.Analysis of thesedata sets is underway. Researchefforts have been concentrated in two main areas- developmentof ATSR scientificobjectives and applicationsof AVHRR data.A simulatedATSR dataset has been completed for the RutherfordAppleton Laboratory science team and other data usel'sfo assessthe usefulnessof ATSR data in various applications.
Atmospheric PressureScanner The measurementof surface pressurefrom spaceis one of the major unsolvedproblems in satelliteremote sensing. Active systemsusing highly stablelasels tuned to an absolptionline of oxygenoffer the most promisein the long tem, but presentlyface many technicalproblems. More attractivein the shortterm are passivesystems such as the nearinfrared system under study at the Division. The absorptionof radiationby oxygen is monitoredand this permitsthe massof oxygen along the ray path throughthe atmosphereto be infened. Becauseoxygen is well mixed in the atmospherc,the oxygenmass is directly relatedto atmospheric pressure.In this systemsunlight reflected from the earth'ssurface will be sampled. The Division hasput forward the AtmosphericPressure Scanner in responseto a call from tlreJapanese National SpaceDevelopment Agency (NASDA) for foreign sensorsfor the ADEOS satellite which is to be launchedin 1993. Two prototypeinstruments have been constructed. Extensive numelicalmodelling suggested the constructionof a high resolutionspectrograph and establishedthe precisionwith which the aerosolloading and temperatureprofile of the atmosphere must be known in orderto recoversurface pressure with an accuracyof 2 hPa. Basedon theseresults, a prototypehigh resolutionspectrograph was developed,using a holographicallyrecorded, concave diffi'actiongrating designed and manufacturedby the opticsgroup at CSIRO Division of MaterialsScience and Technology. Preliminarytests with the prototypesupport the modellingresults and haveprovided the basisfol the designof a rugged,stable instrumentfor usein the researchaircraft. The CSIRO Office of SpaceScience and Applications (COSSA)has funded the developmentof the secondprototype. The instrumentis being developedjointly by the Division, the CSIRO Division of MaterialsScience and Technologyand AuspacePty Ltd.
40 G\Bo ft Corntructiott rf the optical hottsittgof tltc protot),pe Attttospltcric P re sntrc Scatncr ott a conq)uter conn'olled ntill itr the D ivi.s i o t t u,o r kslto p. =n Otherinstrumentation Preliminarywork hasbeen done on fwo other instrumentsfor meteorologicalsatellites: a cloud sizeanalyser and a high speed imageanalyser.
It is well lecognisedthat the radiationfluxes to and from the earth dependnot only on the cloud amountbut alsoon the degreeof fragmentationof the cloud.The purposeof the cloud sizeanalyser is to supplementthe datacurrently available from instruments suchas the AVHRR with the sizeanalysis of cloud fields using high speedimage analysis on board the spacecraft. Reliablesize informationcan alsobe recoveredby applying modem imageanalysis techniques to satelliteimagery. This analysiscan be performedin real time by a dedicatedprocessor on boarda satellite.The processolneeds only currenttechnology and would be a low cost supplementalypackage for one of the existing instruments.
Satellitereception and commercialactivities The original NOAA (NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration)satellite reception componenf of CSIDA was designedby Divisional engineelsand constructedin the electrical and mechanicalworkshops. Tne systemwas installedin 1983and
4l hasrun successfullyever since,acquiring data from up to six satelliteoverpasses per day. This systembecame the prototype for a commercial development ventureundertaken jointly by the Division andthe firm of PCM Electronics Pty Ltd. The venture proved successfulwith PCM selling systemsto the Bureau of Meteorology in Melboume, the WASTAC consortiumin Perthand the NASIS consortiumin Townsville.
Imageprocessing system Experiencein operatingthe imageprocessing component of the original CSIDA facility coupledwith the needto find a cost- effectiveexpansion path to meetfuture processingrequirements led Divisional scientiststo build and marketan improvedimage processingsystem based on the needfor increasingspeed at lower cost, software rather than hardware solutions,portability, enhanceddisplay systems and improveduser interactions. The systemwas built and marketedas part of a joint venture betweenthe Division and The Dindima Group Pty Ltd. Although salesto datehave been limited to only four units,the systemhas provedthe advantagesofthe conceptson which it was basedand has thus pointed the way to presentand future developmentsin this particulartechnology. The exercisehas also given the Division experiencein commercialisation.
Value-addedproducts Ever sincethe commissioningof the CSIDA facility in January 1984,the Division hasbeen inundated with outsiderequests to supplysatellite images or dataenhanced in variousways to highlight featuresor to extractinformation of significancesuch as seasurface temperatures or vegetationindices. The past three years have seenthe establishmentand progressiveimprovement of a service to meet theserequests. The service operatescommercially and is able to support its own programmer and generalexpenses. The range and quality of its productshave improved as proceduresand techniquesdeveloped in variousDivisional researchprograms have been progressively incorporatedinto its operationalcode. A recentinnovation has greatly improved product distribution. It allows customersto use personalcomputers to accessa data base of requestedvalue-added products via a dial-up modem. Selected image data can then be transferredto their local system which will display or print the information in the form of a full-colour plot which is a faithful representationof the original image.
A'' A CSIDA intage shou'ittg -f. sea-surface tentperature off the New SouthWalescoast. The darker the area, the 4* vta,nrcr tlle v,ater. Current and future directions A continuingstrong demand for systemswhich provide the receptionand processingcapabilities of CSIDA encouragedthe Division to explorenew avenuesfor commercialization.The exerciseculminated with a proposalto establisha new company which would market turn-key reception and processingsystems basedon the evolving CSIDA technologyand a rangeof value addedproducts. Ownership of the company would be shared betweenCSIRO, which would contributeits expertisein the area and severalAustralian-owned companies which would contribute managementand marketingexpertise as well as capitalto undertakecommercial development. The joint venture partnerswould be dedicatedto the strategic developmentof systemsover the next decade.The proposednew company would be uniquely placed to incorporate in its operationalsystems those techniques and procedureswhich emergefrom CSIRO's ongoing researchin the areaof remote sensing.Negotiations are continuing. Water Resources
Introduction As a dry continentwith a greatvariability in rainfall, it is appropriatethat considerableemphasis should be given to the hydrologicaspects of Australia'sclimatic system.This has resultedin the establishmentof the Water ResourcesProsram within the Division of AtmosphericResearch. The programaims to identify importantmechanisms affecting regionaland global climate as they apply to the waterbudget. Practicalmeans offorecasting droughts are being derivedand researchis being doneto improve understandingof severestonns and rain-bearingsystems. The resultsof this work will be very importantfor engineeringschemes and precipitationevaluation. The droughtand suface moisturestudies both relateto climate and land useproblems and employ numericalmodelling techniqueson quite different spacescales. These techniques and quantitativeprecipitation evaluation should realise a strong similarity in physicalparameterization schemes. The surface moisturestudy has a major field observationalcomponent with emphasison extensiveirigation areasin semi-aridAustralia. The studiesrelated to mesoscaleconvective systems and mid-latitudewinter stormsare predominantly observationally basedand involve detailedanalysis and interpretationof comprehensivedata sets from tropical and midlatitude regions.
Droughtstudies This researchaims to identify the causesof droughtinitiation and cessationand to developa testabledrought prediction scheme. Researchis being pursuedvia generalcirculation models and a major model developmentprogram has been completed recently. One aspectof this programinvolved updatingof the soil hyd- rology parameterizationand its evaluationin termsof the diurnally varying regionalclimatology at individual model gridpoints. Emphasisis now being placedon assessmentof the impact of Pacific Ocean seasurface temperature anomalies as drought precursors,using the updatedgeneral circulation model. Observationshave identified major droughtsin Australiawith suchanomalies, particularly El Nif,o events.Very realistic droughtshave been obtained in the model for Australia and other regions,as well as enhancedrainfall associatedwith El Nifro.
45 Futureexperiments will explorethe relationshipbetween the spatialdistribution of droughtand that of the anomalies. Timely drought predictions resulting from seasurface temperature anomaliesrequire that the anomaliesbe forecast.The ability to predictEl Nifro eventsis thereforecentral to the droughtproject. Intelnationalresearch on this topic hasused observed winds to force a numerical model of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.However, recentobservations have shown that the responseof the equatorial Pacific is also dependenton the polewards heat transport by the Kuroshio Current.The strengthof this currentis thoughtto depend on westwardpropagating Rossby Waves in a way that is poorly understood.Hence, the numericalmodel of the Pacific Ocean being developedas part of the droughtproject is being forced not only by the observedsurface wind field but also by the observed
Paciflc Ocean curretils not'tlt strengthof the Kuroshio Current.Assessments of the model using of Austt'alia the 198213El Niflo-induced drought in Australia are planned.
46 El Nino Due to their very large heat-holding capacity, the oceansplay a major role in driving the atmosphere.A persistenttemperature anomaly in the oceansof only 1 or 2oC can causeappreciable disruptions in the atmosphericcirculation. The best known anomaly of seasulface temperaturesis El Niflo. El Nifio forms part of a large scale atmosphericphenomenon. Air circulates easf-westalong the equator in cells centred over the great oceans.The strongestsuch circulation occurs above the Pacific. Warm. moist air rises over the Indonesianregion resulting in cloud and rain. The air rises to the upper troposphereand travels eastwards,to sink towards the cold waters off Peru. The descendingair createsan oceanic dry zone off South America. Under normal easterly trade wind conditions, the sealevel is about 40 crn higher in the west than in the east.When these winds slacken,the drag on the oceansurface dirninishes and warm water is transportedback to the east and interferes with the usual upwelling of cold water off Peru. This is the birth of an El Nifio. Drought spreadsacross most of Australia bringing with it immensedust storms,bushfires and lossesin agriculture and livestock production. Long setsof meteorologicaldata show the existenceof a coupled ocean-atmospheresystem that irregularly switches o the El Niffo stateevery 2 to 7 years.The altemation is called the Southem Oscillation and involves the see-sawingof the atmospheric pressurelevel between points in the westem and eastem Pacific. Normally pressurein the west is lower than that in the east. However during El Nifro eventsthe opposite condition prevails. El Niflo and the Southem Oscillation are different manifestationsof the samephenomenon which is often referred to as ENSO. La Nifra is the reversecycle of El Nifio. It is associatedwith higher rainfall and a grearcr'number of cyclones over Australia.
General circulation models Recentemphasis has been on developinggeneral circulation models.The original two level model hasbeen modified to four levelsso that a more accuratespecification of nearsurface propertiescan be obtainedfor usein driving a coupledoceanic model. Data from one year have been generatedwith the atmospheric model and this is being usedto tune a threelayer oceanicmodel. The lattermodel containsa variabledepth mixed layer and a themocline layer, both of which includeadvection and upwelling. The third layer is static and relaxesto observedtemperatures. This model shouldpermit integrationsof the coupledoceanic- atmosphericmodel for 10 year periods.This is adequatefor many climatologicalstudies.
+t Exploratoryruns with the coupledmodel areabout to commence. Successwith this model shouldprovide crucial guidancefor the ultimateaim of couplingthe atmosphericgeneral circulation model with a multi-level primitive equationoceanic general circulationmodel. Using outputfrom a 1O-yearintegration with the two level model,the conditionsgoverning the productionof naturallyoccurring drought in the model havebeen analysed for a numberof geographicalregions. Naturally occurringdrought is consideredto lesult from nonlinearinteractions of the climatic system.As suchit is inherentlyunforecastable. Fortunately, the model resultsand subsequentexamination of observedrainfall variationsin Australia,confirm that suchdroughts are restricted to small areasand usuallylast for only one year.
ice-ocean --.._"__ vJ L atmosohere-ocean coupling OCEAN
Changes of ocean basin shape, salinity, etc
The major processes The two level atmosphericmodel hasbeen improved by replacing influencing the conelete the bucketsoil hydrologyby a two-layerscheme, which is far eaft h-oc ean-atnns here P more sensitive.The model is now being run in the diurnal mode v"stent and improvementshave been made to the way in which near surfacemoisture and temperatureare derived. The overall performanceof the modelhas improved and detailedexamination ofdiurnal and inter-diurnalvariability hasrevealed a wealthof climatic information.The detailsof this variability provide encouragementfor the useof the model in plannedexperiments. Theseresults also highlight someproblems in simulationswhich may not be generallyappreciated. This versionof the model has now beensuperseded by the four level model which will be used in a seriesof experimentsdesigned to provide insight into the characteristicsof drought,particularly in the Australianregion.
48 Due to the dominantinfluence of El Niflo eventsin the creationof Austlaliandroughts, an oceanicmodel of the Pacific extending from 30oNto 30oSis being developed.The model initially will be entirely wind driven usingobserved data for the validationpart of the assessment.A simpleatmospheric model will be usedto generatethe wind datawhen the model operatesin a predictive mode.This simplecoupled model will be usedto predictsea surfacetemperatule anomalies associated with El Niflo events, permittingthese anomalies to be insertedinto the four level generalcirculation model. By this meansit shouldbe possibleto predictthe largescale droughts occurring over easternAustralia duling El Nifro events.
Generalcirculation models In some areasof scienceit is not possible to carry out direct experimentson the subjectsof interest.The global atmosphereis an example of this and computer-basedgeneral circulation models are usedfor investigations. Clanges in heating pattemsdue to increasedemissions of greenhousegases will influence all other elementsof climate including rainfall, cloudiness,frequency of cyclones,m,idlatitude storm tlacks, frosts, snowfall and sea-ice.For a complete treatment it is necessaryto consider the whole globe from the surface to well into the stratosphere,and all the major processesinfluencing the complete earth-ocean-atmospheresystem. General circulation models are designedto satisfy theserequirements. General circulation models involve solving a set of at least six highly non-linear partial differential equationson a spherical grid at different levels. Six equationsare neededto solve the six variables:pressure, temperature, hum'idity and the three componentsof velocity. A horizontal grid with a mesh of 500 km, for example, gives about 35 points over Australia. Some 2 000 points cover the globe. Thus, for a 15 vertical level model, the three dimensional grid contains 30 000 points at each of which the equations have to be solved for the model to be advancedone time step. Using the most powerful of modern computers,typically ten minutes of processingtime is neededfor one model day; five hours for eachmonth. General circulation models have many applications and have been used for some time for day to day weather forecasting.
Middle atmospheremodelling Somedetailed development of the model, which extendsfrom the surfaceto 100km, is continuing.In additionto allowing diurnal variability in the atmosphere,the diurnal variability of the land surfacetemperature is now permitted.The gravity wave drag parameterizationscheme of the British MeteorologicalOffice has beenpermanently implemented in additionto the previouslyused
49 Lundzendrag scheme.However, the mesosphericwind systems, particularlyin the southernhemisphere, have proved to be very sensitiveto the parametersdefining the intensityof dissipation associatedwith theseschemes. This hascaused considerable difficulty in obtaininga final climatologydue to the time consumingnature of assessingthe impactof changesto this dissipation.This processof adjustmentis now nearlycompleted and it is next proposedto analysethe interactionofthe breaking internalgravity waveswith the tidal structuresin the model mesosphere.
Surfacemoisture impact on climate A long term investigationof the impactof surfacemoisture discontinuitieson the behaviourof the lower atmosphereand ultimately regionalclimate, has commenced in conjunctionwith ColoradoState University, USA. Aircraft experimentsover inigation areasin the semi-aridregions of north eastColorado have revealedsignificant differences in the planetary boundary layer structureover dry and inigated sectors. Thesedifferences are consistent with the presenceof inland sea breeze-likecirculations known as non-classicalmesoscale circulations.These circulations are not readily observedbecause of air flows from the nearbymountains as well as large scale atmosphericcirculation. Another field experimentinvolving both aircraftand satelliteswas conductedin south-eastColorado over snow soil discontinuities. The aim of this experimentis to identify non-classicalmesoscale circulationsand to relatethese to thoseexpected over irrigated areas.Appropriate areas in easternAustralia are now being identifiedfor study. An evaluationis being done into the impactof wet soil and vegetativecanopy surface temperatures on Bowen ratiosand boundarylayer depthas a functionoflatitude and season. Modificationsto the evaporationparameterization used in models, specificallyin climatestudies, are being assessed.
Dynamicsof mesoscaleconvective systems Analysis of data from the field phasesof the Cold Fronts Research Program has been completed. This collaborative project involving the Division of AtmosphericResearch, the Bureauof Meteorology and severalAustralian universities has resulted in a new understandingof the genesisof the summer-timecool change. A conceptualmodel hasbeen developed which explainsthe behaviourand structureof the main frontal types.The rolesof evaporativecooling and the influenceofthe coastlinein modifying the cool changeare now understood.Results have been communicatedto operational forecastersvia a seriesof workshops
50 A CSIDA innge slnwittg tlrc easlward progressiott of a co ld fr'otfi across sotttltent Australia.
and throughclose liaison with colleaguesin the Bureauof MeteorologyTraining Schooland MonashUniversity.
EMEX In the tropical regionsof the world and particularlyin the oceanic region to the north of Australia, the atmospherichydrologic cycle is dominatedby mesoscaleconvective systems. Thus in 1987the Division of AtmosphericResearch in collaborationwith the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR), several U.S. universitiesand the AustralianBureau of Meteorology,partic- ipated in the Equatorial MesoscaleExperiment (EMEX). The purposeof EMEX was to define the input of cloud systemsto the vertical heating rate profile in the tropical atmosphere.The correct representationof this profile is a fundamental requirementfor both global and regional climatic and forecasting models. It is this heating profile which essentiallydrives the global climatic system. The observationalphase of EMEX took place during January and February1987 and eight cloud systemswere investigated by appropriately instrumentedresearch aircraft including the CSIRO F-27. Collaborativeanalysis of the resultingdata sets is now under way. Concurrent with the EMEX project were two other major observationalprogrammes, the AustralianMonsoon Experiment (AMEX) and the StratosphericTropospheric ExchangeProject (STEP).
5l 'l I r
- precipitation .i .... .,,i t- \. ./ /^\ : -\/\/ t.t \/t -' cloud
wind direction at 850 mb pressure -1 ,|, r, r, r, r,l,l,r rr,l, r, r. r, r, J I 15Dec 1 Jan 14Jan Feb 15Feb
Daily tinte series of raitfall attd cloutliness over ttortlrcut Australiansummer monsoon Ausu'alia Obselvationaland theoleticalstudies of the Australiansummer monsoonhave continued. The onsetprocess during AMEX was extensivelystudied. A very clearonset occurred on 14 January with a dramaticincrease in rainfall, cloudinessand low level westerlywinds. This onsetdate was more than two standard deviationslatel than the thirty year meanof 24 December.This was a direct l'eflectionof the suppressingeffects that the 1987El Nifro eventproduced throughout the Australianregion. The predominantfluctuations in the intensityof the monsoonare at low fi'equency,that is greaterthan a2O day period.Well defined 40-50 day oscillationevents wel'e identified in the Australian region.The major breakon about?TJanuary was associatedwith the eastwardtraversal of the downwardbranch of one suchevent. Consideringthe markedinfluence the 4G-50day oscillationhas on the Australianmonsoon, a theoreticalexplanation of the oscillationis desirable.A model developedat CSIRO reproduces most of the featuresof the observedoscillation and is uniquein that the amplitudeof the disturbanceis predictedin a self consistentmanner. The basichypothesis of this model is that the tropicalatmosphere is conditionallyunstable. A large-scale disturbancegrows due to the instability.However as it gains amplitudeit reducesthe instabilitythrough vertical transport of heat.This stabilisationoccurs in the mannernecessary for slow eastwardpropa-qation to occur.The relevanceof this mechanism to the observedoscillation is still underinvestigation.
The AustralianWinter StormsExperiment The AustralianWintel StormsExperiment (AWSE) will be conductedduring July andAugust, 1988. The experimentis sponsoredby the Division and hasalso receivedsupport from the
52 Melbourneand MetropolitanBoard of Works (MMBW), the AustralianUrban WaterResearch Association and the Bureau of Meteorology.Overseas support comes from the US National ScienceFoundation, the NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administrationand the DesertResearch Institute of Nevada. AWSE aims at improving a cloud seedingexperiment which will be conductedby the MMBW over the next five years.It is designedto show whether,and to what extent,precipitation can be increasedover the major ThomsonDam water supply catchment.The Division will act as scientificconsultants for the conductand analysisof the experiment.A wide rangeof instrumentationand observationswill supporta studyof the condensed-phasewater budget ofthe cloudsover, upwind and downwind of Baw Baw Plateau.Of particularconcern is the relationshipbetween the amountsof precipitationand the super-cooledliquid waterthat flows acrossthe Plateauwithin the clouds.This liquid waterwould be the main sourceof any additionalprecipitation which could come from cloud seeding. The amountof liquid watermay representthe potentialincrease in on when the water is TheAusu'alianWirter precipitationfrom cloud seeding.Information Storm.sExperintetil presentwill indicatewhen cloud seedingshould be conducted.
Geophysicalfluid dynamics Geophysicalfluid dynamicslaboratory The geophysicalfluid dynamicslaboratory carries out a varietyof experimentsmodelling atmospheric phenomena involving density stratifiedand rotatingfluids. An effectivemethod of measuring
53 fluid speedsin theseexperiments is to useneutrally-buoyant particles as tracers.A system which can do this for a whole field of motion which rapidly changeswith time hasbeen developed. The fluid is seededwith small polystyrenebeads and is then illuminatedby a thin but intensesheet of laserlight. The fluid motion in this sheetof light is viewed by a video cameraand the positionsof the visible beadsin successiveframes are recorded by a computerusing "imagingboards". This enablescalculations of velocity fields, showinghow the motion evolveswith time. The systemis being designedfor usewith turbulentplume experimentsas a model for bushfires.During the development processit hasbeen used with simplerflows suchas stratifiedflow past three-dimensionalobstacles. The formation of upstream blocking and downstreameddies at low levelscan be clearly visualizedand measuredwith the new svstem.
Fluid transportthrough Bass Strait As part of an air-seainteraction program, an experiment was designedto measureand analysethe flow of sea-waterthrough BassStrait. This is importantfor an understandingof oil spills and transportof dissolvedand suspendedmaterial. The experimenf was a collaborative project with the Victorian Instituteof Marine Scienceswith assistancefrom the CSIRO Division of Oceanography.Two sectionsof cunent meterswere deployedbetween Cape Otway and King Islandand King Island and Hunter Island,together with a numberof tide gaugesaround Bass Strait. Data were also obtained from Bureau of M :eorology wind stations.It was found that in winter, through-flowmostly occurs in surgesfrom west to eastlasting from two to three days. This coincideswith the south-westerlyairstreams which follow the passageof atmospherecold fronts acrossthe region. The flow is forced by this air streamwithin and to the west of Bass Strait.
Oceancurrent transport An innovativestudy ofocean currenttransport involved an old Morse-code submarinecable which was laid under the Tasman sea in 1912.The 2 270 kilometre length of insulated wire carried telegraphmessages between Sydney and Auckland until 1967. Oceanographershave known for some time that the flow of sea wateracross cables induces small voltages.Seven years of cable-voltagedata were analysedusing mathematical modelling. The monthly averagecable voltage was found to correlate with the mean sealevel at Sydney, suggestingthat the cable was in fact respondingto oceancurrents. However there were problems associatedwith extraneousvariations due to action of ocean eddies,variations in the earth's magnetic field and short circuiting of the signal by sedimentand rock beneaththe cable. This meant
f4 that correlationsbetween voltage surges and documented ocean movementcould not be found. Due to a combinationof conductivityand deptheffects, the cablewas much more sensitive to currentmovements near Sydney than elsewhere.Therefore it was concludedthat local effects override any signal generatedby largescale ocean movements.
The length of eaclt arrov, .thowstltc.sertsitit,ity rf the cable to oceatt cu.rrerilof urtit speetl at tlxatpoint. Coastal currents Curent researchin the Division aims at understandingthe propertiesand constraintsoperating on the differentforms of coastalcurrents. Ofparticular interestis the ability to transport heat poleward. This may explain why the Gulf Stream off the Atlantic coast of North America appearsto have a much greater influenceon the climateof that oceanthan the corresponding Kuroshio Cunent hason the Pacific Ocean.
Effects of topography on atmospheric flows Previouswork on stratifiedflow over topographyof substantial heighthas been extended in severalways. Laboratory studies of flow pastthree-dimensional bamiers which model a mountain rangehave been carried out to show the relevanceoftwo- dimensionalstudies to more generalsituations. For sufficiently high topography,low-level blockedflow passesaround the obstaclesand separates,forming eddiesin the wake.This downstreamflow is essentiallyunsteady, which affectsflow impinging on obstaclesfunher downstream.Upper level flow passesover the obstaclesas if they were nearlytwo-dimensional. This study has been usedto establish a generalframework for laboratorymodelling of flow over realisticcomplex terrain. Flow over topographyof substantialheight has a very different characterfrom flow over topographyof small height.In the former, flow is essentiallynon-linear and hasa hydrauliccharacter resemblingthat of flow over rocks in a shallowstream. The drag of topographyon the fluid increasesdramatically when this regime is reached.Hydraulic modelsof stratifiedflow havebeen
55 constructedto exploreand describethis processand thesehave beencompared with laboratoryobservations. Understanding of this phenomenonhas reached the stagewhere applications of these hydraulicmodels to real situationscan now be made. A laboratorystudy of the topographiceffects of Antarcticaon the meansouthern hemisphere circulation has been carried out. The closesimilarity betweenflow patternsin a rotatingtank and the meanatmospheric flow patternat a heightat which the pressureis 700 mb impliesthat the importantdynamical factors in the atmosphereare the sameas thosein the tank.This suggeststhat the govemingprinciples are potential vorticity conservationand flow separationfrom topographicfeatures, producing large sepal'ationeddies.
The ffict of a three- dintensiottal bar'r'ierott lon' level su'atified T lrc flow. t: acldition of a dye slt'eam to the n ater etnbles tlzeflow pattent b be clearly seen.
Uppe r I eve I stt'atified Jlow over a sintple lhree- dintettsional lnrrier
56 Activities
Technologytransfer The Division of AtmosphericResearch collaborates and exchangesinfomation with many organisationsboth within Australia and overseas.Many examplesare describedelsewhere within this repolt. In supportof its researchprograms, the Division hasbeen actively engagedin devisingand developingnew instrumentsand methods for studyingaspects of weather,climate and air pollution. The potentialfor commercialisationof our inventionshas become more and more obvious and during the past three years a number of technologytransfer projects have occurred.
Commercialisationof CSIDA The satellitedata acquisition and analysisfacility developedat the Division is being marketedin the form of meteorologicalsatellite receivingstations, together with imageprocessing workstations. A detaileddescription of the commercialisationof CSIDA appearsin the RemoteSensing section of this report.
Electricalread-out meteorological barometer A barometerof very stablelong-term performance, with electrical read-outsuitable for automaticlogging of datawas developedin supportof the Division's cold fronts researchprogram. The barometerappears to fill an international market niche and is being consideredfor manufactureby a Melboumebased scientific instrumentcompany.
Cylindersfor the stablestorage of referencegases In collaborationwith the Division of MaterialsScience and Technology,the Division is contributingexpertise towards the developmentof specialgas cylinders with stable,low contaminant internalsurfaces. A potentiallylarge internationalmarket is anticipatedwithin the semiconductorindustry and atmospheric chemistryresearch. A licenceagreement is being negotiatedwith a Melboume manufacturer,through Sirotech.
TV signaldistribution Advice, engineeringassistance and testingservices have been providedto the Melbournecompany, On-Site Aerial Servicein the developmentand manufactureof productsassociated with TV signaldistribution in large installations.Currentiy these products
57 are obtained from overseasmanufacturers and the aim is to manufacturethem locally with a potentialfor export.The Division of Applied Physicshas participated in someproduct-certification tests.
Laserceiliometer A low powerNd-746 lidar is being developedin collaboration with the TasmanianDevelopment Authority. The lidar is suitable for the measurementof cloud heightand for assessingvisibility.
Mechanicalproducts Severalitems developed by the Division during the manufacture of mechanicalcomponents are being consideredcommercially' Theseinclude a rotary welding positionerand a castorwheel assemblyof adjustableload and suspensionrange.
Consultantservices The Division hasa very broadbase in theoreticaland experimental techniqueswhich are applicableto the analysisof commonly en- counteredenvironmental issues. These include . particletransport modelling . atmosphericflow modelling by fluid tank experiments . NATA-certified anemometercalibration service . satellitelemote sensingof clouds,sea surface temperature, and land surfacefor vegetationand geologicalstudies . transportablelidar facility for trackingairbome material such as industrialsmoke plumes, toxic gasesand dust . mobile air chemistrylaboratory for the analysisof urban atmosphericpollution . computerbased climate modelling A brochuredetailing facilities and potentialcommercial applica- tions for the useof Division expertisein the aboveareas is being developed.
FacilitiesGroup The FacilitiesGroup providesengineering and computingsupport to the Division's researchprograms. It designsand develops specialisedscientific instrumentation and participatesin the transfer of technology to industry. Computing servicesare offered via extensivelocal facilitiesand Csironet.The Group also managesand maintainsbuildings, facilities and services'
Engineering Thedesign, development and manufacture of advancedscientific instrumentationto support the Division's experimental research programshave provided considerable challenge to engineering
58 staff.The EngineeringGroup's activitieshave expanded with the increasingemphasis on the commercialisationof CSlRO-developedtechnology. Someof the major instrumentdevelopment tasks undertaken during the reportedperiod includethe automationand computer control of gaschromatographs, integration of imageprocessing workstationhardware, on-going development and enhancementof NOAA and GMS satellitereception facilities, fluid tank atmosphericmodelling instrumentation,laser systems as well as extensiveinstrumentation associated with atmosphericchemistry research.A proposedsatellite bolne radiometeris being developed for the femotemeasurement of groundsurface atmospheric pressure.
Field programsrequiring significant engineering suppoft included air quality studiesin the LatrobeValley, continuedwork associatedwith the AustralianBaseline Station at CapeGrim and researchinstallations aboard the R.y. Franklitt and Fokker F-27 aircraft. The provisionof engineeringsupport to industryvia consultant servicesand direct assistancein the designand developmentof new productshave resulted in successfulcommercial collaboration detailedelsewhere in this report.
Computing The ComputingGroup is responsiblefor operatingthe local computersand network and for providing a supportservice to all computerusers. The Division is one of the major usersof computersin CSIRO. Greatdemand has been placed on the Organisation'sCyber 205 supercomputerand on the Csironet networkfor atmosphericmodelling. Six local minicomputersare in operationas well as aboutseventy personal computers. An Equinox digital dataswitch was installedin 1987to provide access to all facilitiesfrom any terminalor PC on site. During the pastthree years the Division hasbeen involved in shapingthe Cyber 205 serviceand hasplayed a major role in ensuringthat usageis free to Divisions so that the machineis fully utilised.The Cyber 76 serviceon Csironethas been phased out and work hasbeen transferred to the Cyber 205 and Cyber 180 machines. The ComputingGroup managesthe Csironetmicronode and peripheralsfor usersand overseesthe useofthe Division's file storageallocations. In 1985a Hewlett-Packard,4900 was installed to providemore computationalcapacity and in 1986a DEC MicroVAX II was installedto run VAX specificsoftware from other sitesand to provide interactivegraphics capabilities.
59 The Group hasmade a large numberof enhancementsto the local machinesand the network connectingthem. It hasalso continued to providesubstantial support services to the CSIDA facility. The numberof personalcomputers on site hasgrown rapidly. The ComputingGroup is involved in advisingusers on hardwareand softwarepurchases, installation, usage and faults.The Group also providessuppoft services to conferenceorganisers. The ComputingAdvisory Committeehas prepared a five-year plan for computingin the Division. This plan involvesa major local host machinerunning the UNIX operatingsystem, a local areanetwork, and eithercontinued access to a CSIRO supercomputeror a mini-supercomputeron site.The Division has received a grant from the Major Items of Equipment budget to enablethe purchaseofthe host and networkin 1988-89.
Scientific ServicesGroup The ScientificServices Group supportsthe Divisional research efforl and helpsmaintain contact with the scientificcommunity and the public at large. Explainingthe researchthe Division doesas well as emphasising the importanceof the work is an essentialrole of the Group. Activities includereporting to the Instituteand the Govemment, informationexchange between Divisions, communicating with scientificusers of the Division's lesearchand keeping the general public informedabout scientific advances and topical issues. Communicationwithin the Division is very importantand regular newslettels,bulletins and researchreports are produced. Managementand scientificadministrative tasks are also performed by the group and thesehave been described in detail in the previousreport. The Division hasan extensivelibrary which makesfull useof the CSIRO Library Network. An integratedon-line automatedlibrary system(CLINES) was introducedduring 1986. Photographyand graphicservices are available for scientific publications,conference presentations, lectures and special displays.
Conferencesand Workshops The Division of AtmosphericResearch fosters the exchangeof scientificinformation by supportinga wide rangeof conferences and workshops.A major conferenceduring the reportingperiod was Greenhouse87.
60 Greenhouse87 The main objectivesof this conferencewere to encourage scientiststo assessthe potentialimpacts of climatechange of the kind possibledue to greenhousewarming and to communicateto the wider scientificand engineeringcommunity the currentstatus of the greenhousetheory. In preparationfor the confet'encea refinedclimate change scenario was cilculatedto contributolsas a commonbasis for a discussion of impactson variousindustlies and sectorsof Australiansociety and activity, rangingfrom agricultureand wildlife to the insurance and skiing industries.This scenariowas largely influencedby that proposedat the internationalconference at Villach in 1985. The preparedpapers tended to confirm that climatic changeof aboutthe magnitudeenvisaged in the scenariowould havevery significant,and often deleterious,effects on many partsof the naturaland humanenvironment and consequentlyon Australian economiclife. Someoutcomes of the meetinghave been: . The stimulationof climate-impactsresearch throughout Australia. . A clearerspecification of the requirementsof climatemodelling work by thewider community. . Establishmentof an awalenessof the potentialadvantages and disadvantagesof greenhouseclimate change in government instrumentalitiesand the community at large. . A contributionto the developmentof an agreementbetween the Austlalian and New Zealandgovernments to undertakejoint researchon the issue. . A contributionto the developmentof a strongsupport for such researchfrom the AustralianEnvironment Council. Greenhouse87 attractedwide scientificand popularinterest and extensivemedia coverage and was a joint activity by the Division and the Commissionfor the Future.The editedproceedings will be publishedin book form as Greenhotrse:Planningfor Climate Chartge.
Conferencesand Workshopssupported by the Division 28-30May 1986 Drought Workshop Councilof Adult Education,Melboume 18Novembef 1986 Latrobe Valley Airshed Study Modellers' Workshop Divisionof AtmosphericResearch. Convenor: F.C. Manins
61 8-12December 1986 Mechanismsof Interannual and Longer Term Climatic Variations Universityof Melbourne. 17December 1986 AntarcticOzone Symposium Divisionof AtmosphericResearch. Convenors:P.J. Fraser and R.A. Plumb I May 1987 MesoscaleTopographic Effects in the Australian Region Divisionof AtmosphericResearch. Convenor: P.G. Baines 2-3 July 1987 Meteorologyand PhysicalOceanography in Australia: Priorities in Research,Operations and Education MonashUniversity. Convenor: P.G. Baines Z4July 1987 DiscussionMeeting on Atmosphere-OceanCoupled Models Divisionof AtmosphericResearch. Convenor: B.G. Hunt 3ONovember - 4 December1987 The GreenhouseProject: Planningfor Climate Change MonashUniversity. Convenor: G.I. Pearman 14-17February 1988 SecondConference on Air-SeaInteraction Merimbula,NSW. Convenor: P.G. Baines 16-24February1988 RemoteSensing of Atmosphereand Oceans AustralianDefence Force Academy, Canberra. Convenor:C.M.R. Platt 29 February- 3 March1988 Cloud BaseMeasurement Workshop Divisionof AtmosphericResearch. Convenor:C.M.R. Platt 2G-21June 1988 LatrobeValley Air ShedStudy End-of-Study Symposium ChisholmInstitute of Technology.Convenor: P.C. Manins
Administration The AdministrativeGroup providespersonnel and financial servicesto theDivision including recruitment, budgeting, purchasing,wold processing,rcception, travel and transport facilities. During the last threeyears the increasingemphasis on external funding hasseen the expansionof commercializationactivities
62 and also a greateremphasis on applicationsto competitivefunding schemes.The administrationprovides high level policy adviceto managementand researchstaff and is intimately involved in the negotiationof researchagreements with funding bodiesand commercialpartners. Due to a major devolutionof responsibilitiesin the personneland financealeas from the CSIRO CorporateCentre to Divisions, major retrainingand reorganisationof administrationhas occurred to meetthese demands.
Visitorsto the Division VIP visits l0 September1985 Dr Bill Farrell,Manager of Assessmentand Research Branch, EPA Dr DougMunro, ProjectOfficer, Melbourne Airshed Study, EPA 24 September1985 FourthMeeting of theDivisional Advisory Committee 15November 1985 Mr Blondeau,Head, Scientific and Technical Cooperation Department Dr Ullman,International Affairs Division, in chargeof Australia, CentreNational d'Etude Spatialle (CNES) 2l November1985 SenatorBrian Archer,Shadow Minister for Science l3 December1985 SenatorsSanders and Vigor l6 January1986 Hon. BarrieJones, Minister for Science 20January1986 Mr HansEisen, Director-General, Department of Industry, Technologyand Resources Dr Murray Frazer,Project Director, Technology and Innovations,ITR 21January 1986 Dr RogerSmith, Bureau of Meteorology Dr GregHolland, Bureau of Meteorology 23January 1986 Mr RobertW. Jemison,Divisional Manager, Scientific InstrumentsDivision, ICI AustraliaOperations Pty. Ltd' 23January 1986 Mr Terry Kelly, KEL AerosPace
63 5 February1986 Dr NevilleFletcher, Director, Institute of PhysicalSciences 14February 1986 Dr Don Thompson,New ZealandMeteorological Service 4 April 1986 FifthMeeting of DivisionalAdvisory Committee 17April 1986 StateRemote Sensing Committee 28April 1986 Ms FionaHamilton, Victorian Department of Conservation, Forestsand Lands I May 1986 Mr Mike Fosberg,Riverside Fire Research Station, Los Angeles, USA 7 May 1986 Mr C. Veenstra,Director, Division of NationalMapping Dr D. J. Grey,Station Director, Australian Landsat Station l8 June,1986 Mr Phillip Adams,Media Consultant l7 July1986 NaturalEnvironment, Renewable Natural Resources StandardCommittee (NERNR) 22luly 1986 ProfessorP.D. Bhavsar, Director, Space Applications Centre, IndianSpace Research Organisation 22July1986 EuropeanCommunities Delegation Dr PhilippeBourdeau, Dr UgoMiranda, Mr LucianoCao and Dr AIan Jonesof DITAC 19August 1986 Dr Ian Torrens, Organisationfor EconomicCooperation and Development(OECD) 3 September1986 Mr. M. Tanke,Elsevier Publishing 12September 1986 Mr Julian Beale,MHR 24 September1986 Dr DixonButler. NASA Dr Karen Miller, NASA 3 October1986 Dr Ian Bailey,Zoology Department, Monash University
64 l0 October1986 Dr Alex Buchanan,Centre for InternationalResearch Cooperation(CIRC) l0 November1986 Hon. B. O. Jones,Minister for Science l3 November1986 Prof. Qing Lin Zheng,State Meteorological Administration, P.R. China 4 December1986 Mr Tom Warwick,Liberal Candidate for Dunkley 5 December1986 Dr PeterRowntree, Meteorological Office, Bracknell, UK 16December 1986 SixthMeeting of DivisionalAdvisory Committee 17February 1987 ChineseMeteorological Delegation, SMA Academyof MeteorologicalScience 19February 1987 Mr Abdul Karim Heneidy,Meteorology and Environmental ProtectionAdmi nistration (MEPA) Dr Daryl Lacey,Australian Adviser on Environmental Regulationsto MEPA l8 March1987 Mr DavidNixon, Minenco Pty Ltd 2 April 1987 Dr Y. Horikawa, NationalSpace Development Agency of Japan (NASDA) l2lune 198'7 Mr Digby Gascoigne,Department of Arts, Heritageand Environment 26lune 1987 SeventhMeeting of DivisionalAdvisory Committee 29 July 1987 Dr Tony Gregson,Member of CSIROBoard 25 September1987 Mr Colin Tudge,BBC ScienceShow, UK 9 November1987 TechnicalStanding Committee 16November 1987 Dr Joji Tabata,Dr ShigeoYamada , Dr ShojuMatsubara, NationalSpace Development Agency of Japan
65 3 December1987 Dr K. McCracken,Director, COSSA l7 December1987 EighthMeeting Divisional Advisory Committee 7 January1988 Hon.Neville Wran, QC,Chairman of CSIRO 15January 1988 Dr Roy Green,Director, Institute of NaturalResources and Environment 22January1988 Dr Brian Mapes,University of Washington 8 March1988 ASIA members 16March 1988 Japanesedelegation from the Science and Technology Agency Dr JoichiTakagi, Director, Disaster Prevention Research Division,Research and Development Bureau, Science and TechnologyAgency. Mr YoshifumiKuroda, Japan Marine Science and Technology Center Mr YohsukeHoashi, Staff Writer, Science Department Mr KenkichiHirose, First Secretary, Embassy of Japan,Canberra l8 March1988 Mr DaveCollins. Alcoa 29March 1988 SenatorGraham Richardson, Minister for theArts, Sport, the Environment,Tourism and Territories Mr DavidTierney, Senior Private Secretary Mr Bob Chenowyth,MHR, Memberfor Dunkley CouncillorCameron Hogan, City of Frankston 26April 1988 Mr Tonnesvon Zweigberg,Ericsson Radar and Electronics, Sweden Mr DavidNickols, Ericsson Defence Systems Pty Ltd, Canberra l2-13May 1988 Mr Fred Pearce,News Editor, New Scientist 23May 1988 Ms WendyParsons, Manager, Public Affairs and Communication,INRE
66 Visitingscientists
9 July1985 Dr Y. Sugimura,MRS, Tsukuba, Japan 3 October1985 Dr Gary Meyers,Division of Oceanography 12November 1985 Dr RichardWalterscheid, Aerospace Corp, Los Angeles 7 February1986 Dr RichardDubinski, York University,Canada 21 February1986 Dr PaulSteele, NOAA, Boulder,USA 27 March 1986 Prof. K. Okamoto,Tokyo GakugeiUniversity 12May 1986 Dr MichaelA. Box,University of New SouthWales 13May 1986 Dr WolfgangUlrich, University of Munich 27 June1986 Dr Alex Craik, Universityof St Andrews 31July 1986 Dr Ian N. James,University of Reading 3l July1986 Dr ScottL.Zeger,John Hopkins University 5 September1986 Prof. Wilfred Bach,University of Munster 5 September1986 Dr PaoloOrlandi, University of Rome 9 September1986 Dr ReinholdSteinacker. Universitv of Innsbruck 24 September1986 Dr DixonButler, NASA 2 October1986 Dr CharlesS. Shapiro,Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory USA. l3 November1986 Prof. JohnAllen, Oregon State University 5 December1986 Dr A.A. White,U.K. MeteorologicalOffice
67 l0 December1986 Dr G.W. Kent Moore,University of Toronto 15December 1986 Dr ShigeoYoden, University of Washington 15December 1986 Prof. RogerRevelle, Scripps Institute of Oceanography 22January1987 Dr ThomasAckerman, NASA AmesResearch Laboratory California 9 February1987 Dr J. Hogan,Oxford University 11February 1987 Dr ThomasHauf, DFVLR, West Germany Dr AndrewCrook, GFDL Princeton University 2 April1987 DrHorikawa 9 Aplil 1987 Dr B.B. Hicks,ARL, NOAA l5 May 1987 Dr DavidCarruthers, Cambridge University 2l May 1987 Dr Tom Beer,National Bushfirc Research Unit, Australia 22May 1987 Dr Judith Holyer,University of Bristol 25May 1987 Prof. Murray Salby,University of Colorado,Boulder 25 May 1987 Dr PaulNewman, NASA GoddardLaboratory 17luly 1987 Dr TimothyBates, NOAA, USA 2l July 1987 Dr DavidM. Etheridge,Department of Science,Antarctic Division l8 August1987 Dr Jim Weinman,University of Wisconsin,USA. 7 September1987 Dr Y. Hayashiand Dr Isobe,Division of Agrometeorology, Japan l4 September1987 Dr JoeWarburton, DRI, Nevada
68 15September 1987 Dr Jeff Weil,Martin Marietta Corp. Baltimore l7 September1987 Dr PierreCellier, Bioclimatologie INRA, France 23 September1987 Prof. PeterWebster, Pennsylvania State University 1 October1987 Mr GrahamJohnson, CSIRO Division of FossilFuels, NSW 29 October1987 Dr Alan Perry,University College, Swansea I I January1988 Dr Ian Watterson,NOAA, Boulder,USA 8 March1988 Dr SusumuYamamoto, NRI, Japan l5 March1988 Dr JamesA. Moore,NCAR, Boulder, USA 25March 1988 Dr TangDengyin and ZhangRenhua, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 5 May 1988 Dr Ron Smith,Yale University, USA 8 June1988 Dr Blair T.N. Evans,Defence Research Establishment Quebec, Canada
InternationalResearch Programs Researchat the Division of AtmosphericResearch covers a wide rangeof atmosphericphenomena which impingeson weather, climateand atmosphericpollution. In performingthis research, scientistsmaintain close contact with colleaguesboth nationally and internationally.Although many of theseinteractions are dilectly instituteto instituteand scientistto scientist,there are a numberof internationalresearch programs to which our scientists contributeand coopelatewith othersin settinggoals and tasksfor the future. The two main internationalbodies relevant to atmosphericscience are the InternationalAssociation for Meteorologyand AtmosphericPhysics (IAMAP) and the World Meteorological Organisation(WMO). The Chief of the Division of Atmospheric Research,Dr G. B. Tucker,has been President of IAMAP since 1988.Another organisationwith an interestin atmosphericscience in termsmainly of policy issues,is the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
69 In view of the rapidly changingglobal environment,a new intelnationalprogram has recently been established to look at the issuesof global changeacross a wide rangeof disciplines.This is known asthe IntemationalGeosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP). The InternationalCouncil of ScientificUnions (ICSU) is the overall governingbody for both the International Geosphere-BiosphereProgram and the InternationalAssociation for Meteorologyand AtmosphericPhysics. Embeddedin thesevarious organisations are a rangeof specific programsin which many of the Division scientistsare active. They includethe World Climate ResearchProgram (WCRP), the WMO Committeeon AtmosphericScience (CAS), the International Global AtmosphericChemistry Program (IGAC) and the IntemationalCloud Climatology Program(ICCP). Another internationalactivity concernsthe studyof chlorofluorocarbonsand other tracegases in the global atmospherethrough a programformally known as the AtmosphelicLifetime Experiment(ALE) now operatingunder the nameof the Global AtmosphericGases Experiment (GAGE). A very recentinternational activity towardswhich the Division is contributingstrongly via a numberof working groupsis the InternationalGovernment Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). IPCC was set up specificallyto provide a world-wide forum for assessmentof research,impacts and responsestrategies with l'espectto the greenhouseeffect.
Affiliations The committees,panels and editorialboards on which staff membersserved are listed below. They indicaterecognition of the high nationaland internationalstanding of the Division. ABBS, Debbie HonorarySecretary, Australian Meteorological and OceanographicSociety (AMOS) AYERS, Greg AssociateEditor, Australian Meteorological Magazine AssociateEditor, CleanAir CapeGrim BaselineAir Pollution Station(CGBAPS) Working Group BAINES, Peter AssociateEditor, Austroliatt Meteorological Magazine Editorial Board,Dynantics of Atmospheresand Oceans InternationalCommission for Dynamic Meteorology InternationalCommission for DynamicalMeteorology, Working Group C (MesoscaleDynamics)
t0 President,Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society(AMOS) BARTON.Ian AustmlianRepresentative, Committee of Earth Observation Satellites(CEOS) Working Group on Calibrationand Validation ScienceTeam Member,Along Track ScanningRadiometer for ERS-I,ESA BEER,Tom Convenor,Awards Sub-Committee,AMOS Editorial Board, Australian Maritime Atlas ExecutiveCommittee of SimulationSociety of Australia BIGG, Keith CGBAPS Working Group BIRD,Ian Advisory Committee,Department of Science Adviser, Divisional Engineering,CSIRO Instituteof Physical Sciences Convenor,CSIRO ElectronicsSeminars Committee, Victoria National Committeefor AntarcticResearch, Australian Academy of Science ProgrammeAssessoL, Engineering, Antarctic ResearchPolicy BOUMA. Willem CGBAPS Working Group Secretary,Division of AtmosphericResearch Advisory Committee FRANCEY, Roger CGBAPS Working Group FRASER, Paul CGBAPS Wofting Group CleanAir Societyof Australiaand New Zealand Co-Editor,-Ba seline I 985,BaselineI9S6 CSIRO Representativeat meetingsof the Global Atmospheric GasesExperiment (GAGE) CSIRO ScientificAdviser to AerosolAssociation of Australia Invited AustralianRepresentative at the Sthmeeting of the United NationsEnvironment Program's Co-ordinating Committee on the OzoneLayer Invited Chairman,Ttace GasTrends Group, NASA OzoneTrends Panel National Health and Medical ResearchCouncil Committeeon Chlorofluorocarbons and AlternativeAerosol Propellants FREDERIKSEN, Jorgen Sub-Editor, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societv
7l GALBALLY.Ian AssociateEditor, Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry CGBAPS Working Group Commissionon AtmosphericChemistry and Global Pollution of IAMAP Editorial Board, Tellus InternationalOzone Commission of IAMAP Latrobe Valley Airshed Study Working Group on Ozone ScientificAdvisory Committeeof SCOPEBiospheric Trace Gas EmissionsProject
GARRATT, John Chairman,World MeteorologicalOrganization's (WMO) Group of Rapporteurson Boundary-Layer Problems Editorial Board, B oundary-Layer Meteorology Editorial Committee, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorology Society WMO Working Group on Boundary-LayerProblems GRAS.John CGBAPS Working Group HUNT. Barrie AssociateEditor, CI imate Dynamic's AustralianWorld ClimateResearch Program Committee ScientificDiscipline Member, ScientificCommittee for Solar TerrestrialPhysics LONG, Alex AssociateEditor, Journal of Clinute and Applied Meteorology MANINS, Peter ProjectDirector, LVASS Working Group PALTRIDGE, Garth Chairman,National Committee for AtmosphericScience InternationalRadiation Commission PEARMAN, Graeme AustralianAcademy of Science,National Committee of AtmosphericSciences AustralianAcademy of Science,National Committee for the InternationalGeosphere-Biosphere Program CGBAPS Working Group IAMAP Commissionon AtmosphericChemistry and Global Pollution InternationalCouncil of ScientificUnions and the WMO Joint OrganizingCommittee Working Group on Data for Climate Research WMO Commissionfor Instrumentsand Methodsfor EnvironmentalPollution Measurement WMO Working Group on AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide
12 PITTOCK, Barrie Australiandelegate to SCOPEGeneral Assembly in 1985 SCOPEStanding Committee on Publications Chairperson,Australian Academy of Science'sNational Committeefor the Environment Editorial Board, Clinrute Chang,e,Journal of Clintatology and N atura I H azards J ournal SCOPEWorking Group on the EnvironmentalConsequences of NuclearWar PLATT.Martin Chairman,Australasian Physics of RemoteSensing Group InternationalCommittee for LaserAtmospheric Studies CGBAPS Working Group InternationalRadiation Commission. IAMAP PLUMB, AIan AssociateEditor, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences Chairman,WMO/\ASA OzoneAssessment Working Group Editorial Committee, Pure and Applied Geophysics InternationalCommission for DynamicalMeteorology PRATA, Fred Co-Chairman,Volcanic Ash Detectionand Air SafetyWorking Group, COSSA ScienceTeam Member, Along Track ScanningRadiometer for ERS-1,ESA RYAN, Brian Aircraft Advisory Committee,COSSA SAWFORD,BTian Leader,Non ReactiveGases Project Team of the LVASS TUCKER, Brian AustralianEnvironment Council SteeringCommittee Australianlonizing RadiationAdvisory Committee CapeGrim ManagementCommittee Chairman,Latrobe Valley AirshedStudy SteeringCommittee ExecutiveCommittee of ScientificCommittee on Oceanic Research,SCOR NationalBushfire Research Unit SteeringCommittee President,International Association of Meteorologyand AtmosphericPhysics, IAMAP TURNER. Peter ChisholmInstitute of TechnologyCourse Committee for the GraduateDiploma in ComputerGraphics Victorian RemoteSensing Committee
73 Lecturecourses and affiliationswith Australianuniversities A numberof Divisionstaff have presented lecture courses at universities: BEER,Tom - Melbourne1987. Lectures on "Introductory PhysicalOceanography" to second year meteorology students. FRASER,Paul - Wollongong1985, 1986 and 1987. Lecture courseon "AtmosphericChemistry" to thirdyear chemistry students. GALBALLY, Ian - Melboume1985 and 1986. Lectures on "The Compositionand Chemistry of theAtmosphere" to fourthyear meteorologystudents. HUGHES,Roger - Monash1987. Half courseon "Physical Oceanography".Melbourne 1988. Lecture course on "Mathematicsin Industry". PITTOCK, Barrie- Melbourne1985 and 1986. Lectures on "ClimateChange and Variability" to secondyear meteorology students.
Transfersand Retirements Dr Keith Bigg, a SeniorPrincipal Research Scientist, Dr Chris Coulman, former Officer-in-Chargeof the Cloud Physics Laboratoryin Sydneyand Peter Hyson, a SeniorExperimental Scientistretired during the periodcovered by this report.Eric Webb hasalso retired but will staywith the Division as an HonoraryResearch Fellow. Dr Alan Plumb has accepteda Chair at MassechusettsInstitute of Technologyin Boston.Dr Warren King has moved to the CSIRO Division of Radiophysicsin Sydneyand Dr Peter Howells is now employedby the company"Applied Financial". A numberof scientistshave completed term positionsat the Division - StevenBanks, Frank Di Marzio, Harry Hendon, Richard Kleeman, Dianna Davies,John Everett, Julie Golds, Denis McConalogue and Lou Ripari. Supportstaff who haveleft the Division includeWayne Knight, Ray Meyer, John Swannie and Neil Tyson. A numberof staff havemoved from the old CSIRO Division of Cloud Physicsin Sydneyduring the reportingperiod - Tony Adriaansen, Lynne Hanrahan, Enid Turton, Anthony Whichello, Laurie Carmichael and Barbara Georgeson.
74 Publications
ABBS, D.J. (1986).Sea-breeze interactions along a concavecoastline in SoutlrernAustralia: observations and numericalmodeling study.Mon. Weather Rev.,114: 831:848. ABBS, D.J. and R.A. PIELKE (1986).Thermally forcedsurface flow and convergencepatterns over NortheastColorado. Mon. WeatherRev., ll4:2281-2296. ABBS, D.J.and R.A. PIELKE (1987).Numerical simulations of orographic effects on NE Colorado snowstorms.Meteorol. Atmos. Pl.ys.,37:1-10. AYERS, G.P. and R.W. GILLETT (1985).Some observations on the acidity andcomposition of rainwaterin Sydney,Australia, during the summerof 1980-81. J. Atntos.C hent. 2, 25-46. AYERS, G.P.,R.W. GILLETT and E.R. CAESER (1985).Solubility of ammoniairr waterin thepresence of atmosphericCOz. Tellus 378, 35-40. AYERS,G.P., R.W. GILLETT and U. CERNOT (1986). Chemical cornpositionof rainwaterat New Plymouth, N.2., in 1981-82.Clean Air.20:89-93. AYERS,G.P., J.P. IVEY andH.S. GOODMAN (1986). Sulfate and methanesulfonatein the maritime aerosol at Cape Grim, Tasmania. "/. Atnrcs.Clrcnt. 4: 173-I 85. AYERS,c.P., J.P. IVEY and H.S. GOODMAN. (1986). Seasonal cycle in rnethanesulfonatein the aerosol at Cape Grim. ln: Baseline83-84 (EdsR.J. Francey and B.W. Forgan). Bureau of Meteorology/CSlRO Divisionof AtmosphericResearch, Australia, 1986. pp.15-17. IVEY,J.P., D.M. DAVIES, V. MORGANand G.P. AYERS (1986). Methanesulfonatein Antarctic ice. T e I I us,388: 375 -37 9. AYERS,G.P., R.W. GILLETT and U. CERNOT(1987). Rainwater acidityin Sydney,an addendum. Clean Air 21,68-69. AYERS,G.P. and R.W. GILLETT (1988). Acidification in Australia.In: Scope36, AcidiJication inTropical Countries, Ed. H. Rodheand R. Henera,Wiley and Sons, pp.347-402. AYERS,G.P. and R.W. GILLETT. (1988). First observations of cloud-wateracidity in tropicalAustralia. Clean Air 22(2):53-57. AYERS,G.P. and R.W. GILLETT. (1988). Isoprene emissions from vegetationand hydrocarbon emissions from bushfires in tropical Australia. "/. At ntos. C hent. 7 (2): 177 -190. AYERS,G.P. and J.P. IVEY (1988).Precipitation composition at Cape G rim, 1977 -1985.T e I I us 40B,297 -307 . AYERS,G.P. and S.R. RAMSDALE (1988). Wet deposition of excess sulfateat Macquarie Island, 54oS. J. Atntos. Chem.7,3l7-323. BAINES,P.G. and FANG XIN-HUA (1985).Intemal tide generation at a continentalshelf/slope junction: a comparisonbetween theory and a laboratoryexperiment. Dynanics of Atnosltheresand Oceans,9: 297-314. GRIMSHAW,R.H.J., P.G. BAINES and R.C. BELL (1985).The reflectionand diffraction of internalwaves from the iunction of a slit anda half-space.Dyn. Atntos. Oceans. 9, 85-1 20.
75 BAINES,P.G. and K.P. HOINKA (1985). Stratified flow over two-dimensionaltopography in fluidof infinitedepth: a laboratory sirnulation.J. Atmos.Sci., 42: 1614-1630. BAINES,P.G. (1986). Intemal tides, internal waves, and near-inertial motions.ht: Baroc'litticProcesses on CotttinentalShelves, Coastal and Est u a r in e Sc' ie n c' e s 3, AmericanGeophysical Union, 1 9-3 1. BAINES,P.G. (1986). The hydraulics of stratifiedflow overtopography. gtlt Artst.Flrtid Mechanics Conference, Auckland, N.2.,436-439. BAINES,P.G. (1987). Sea fog, by WangBinhua, a review.Dyn. Atmos. Oceans,ll:87-88. BAINES,P.G. (1987). Upstream blocking and stratified flow hydraulics. 3rd InternationalSynqtosiunr on Density-sn'atifiedFlows,Pasadena. lopp. BAINES,P.G. (1987). The effects of rotationon disturbancesupstream of cold frontsapproaching south-eastern Australia. 2 ndInternational Conlerenceon SoutlrcrnHemisplrcreMeteorology, Dec. l-5, 1986, Wellington,N.Z. BAINES,P.G. (1987). Upstream blocking and airflow over mountains. Ann.Rev. of FluidMech.,19:.75-97. BAINES,P.G. and R.C. BELL (1987).The relationship between ocean currenttransports and electrical potential differences across the Tasman Sea,measured using an ocean cable. Deelt Sea Research,34(4): 53r-546. BAINES,P.G. (1988). A generalmethod for determiningupstream effects in stratifiedflow of finitedepth over long two-dimensional obstacles.,I. FluidMech.,188: |-22. BAINES,P.G. (1988). Meteorology and physical oceanography in Australia.ln'. Priorities in research,operatiot'ts and education Ed.Peter G. Baines.Report of a discussiottnrceting organised by theAusn'alian Branc'ltof theRoyal Meteorological Soc'iety, July 1987' BAINES,P.G. and F. GUEST(1988). The nature of upstreamblocking in urriformlystratified flow overlong obstacles. J. FluidMech.,l88: 23-46. BANKS,S.M., D.J. BOOTH and S.A. YOUNG (1988). Ruby lidar measurementsof atmospheric water vapour using a wedgeabsorption technique.Rentote sensing of atntosphereand oceans',proceedings. Canberra:Australian Defence Force Academy,Paper 67 , BARTON,I.J. (1984). Infrared absorption coefficients obtained from '84: satellitedata. /RS CurrentProblems in AtmosphericRadiation,Ed. G. Fiocco.A. DeepakPub. pp 399-403 JEREMY,R., R.D. GLENN and I.J. BARTON (1985). ERS-I project definitiottstudv - Finalreport presented to theDepartment of Industry, Technologyand Cornmerce. August 1985,122pp. BARTON,I.J. (1985). Transmission model and ground-truth investigation of satellite-derivedsea surface temperatures."/. Climate Appl. Meteor., 24,508-516. BARTON,I.J. (1986). Australian validation plans for ERS-1.Proceedings oJ'a Workshopon ERS-I Windand WaveCalibratiott, Schliersee, FRG, 2-6June, 1986. p.165-168. DELDERFIELD.J., D.T. LLEWELLYN-JONES, R. BERNARD,Y. DE JAVEL,E.J. WILLIAMSON, I.M. MASON,D.R. PICK ANd LJ.BARTON (1986). The along track scanning radiometer (ATSR) for ERS-1,/rslrlrrrcntotionfor optical remote sensingfrom spcce, John S. Seeley,John W. Lear,Andre Monfils, Sidney L. Russak,Editors, Proc' SPIE589, 114-120.
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9l PLUMB,R.A., R.A. VINCENT and R.L. CRAIG (1987). The quasi-two-daywave event of January1984 and its impacton themean mesosphericcirculation. "/. Atmos. Sci., 44(20): 3030-3036. PLUMB,R.A., P.A. NEWMAN, M.R. SCHOEBERL and J.E. ROSENFIELD(1988). Mixing rates calculated from potential vorticity. J. of GeopltysicalRes.,93(D5): 5221-5240. PRATA,A.J., J.B. WELLS and M. IVANAC (1985).A "satellite's eye-view"of volcanoeson theLesser Sunda islands. Weather, 40(8), 245-250. PRATA,A.J. (1986).Editor: Proceedittgs of the Ist Austalian AVHRR Conftrence,Perth, Westem Australia, CSIRO Division of Groundwater Research,322pp. PRATA,A.J. and L. VAN BURGEL(1986). Unusual clouds over Perth, WesternAustralia. Weather,4l(10), 320-327. RYAN,8.F., K.J. WILSON, J.R. GARRATT and R.K. SMITH(1985). Cold frontsresearch programme: Progress, future plans, and research directions.Bull. Anrcrican Meteor. Soc.,66: ll16-1122. RYAN,B.F. (1986). Cold fronts research: mesoscale research on a united front.S earc h, 17: 32-35. RYAN, B.F.and R.C. O'BRIEN (1987). Boundary layer measurements of a convectiverain band in tropicalCyclone lrma. Intemational Symposiurnon Tropical Precipitation Measurements, Tokyo, Japan 28-30October. WILSON,K.J. and B.F. RYAN (1987).The role of low-levelcooling in a conceptualmodel of theAustralian summertime cool change: implicationsfor very-short-rangeforecasting. ln: Mesoscaleanalysis andJbrecastiug ittcorporating' Nowcastiug'. Paris: European Space Agency,p.213-218. WILSONK.J. and B.F. RYAN (1987).The subsynoptic scale environmentof mesoscaleconvective weathef systems at genesis over southeastemAustralia. Be i t. P hys.Atmo sp h., 60:210-228. RYAN, 8.F.,K.J. WILSON and S.L. BARRETT (1987). Kinematic diagnosisof satelliteimagery associated with thesummertime cool changeover Southeastem Australia. Workshop on Satelliteand Radar ImageryInterpretation. Bracknell, JK, July 1987.Eumetsat. RYAN, B.F.(1988). [Airbome systems] 2.2 Airbome Meteorological Radars.ln: Marineand coastalremote sensing in theAusn'alian n'opics,edited by K.G.McCracken and J. Kingwell.Canberra: COSSA. p.15- I 9. SAWFORD,B.L. (1985).Lagrangian statistical simulation of concentrationmean and fluctuation fields, ./. ClimateAppl. Meteor.,23: 1152-1166. SAWFORD,B.L. andD.G. ROSS (1985). Workshop on regulatoryair quafity modellingin Australia(Report) - 8thInternational Clean Air Conference,S2-86. SAWFORD,8.L., C.C.FROST and T.C. ALLAN (1985).Atmospheric boundary-layermeasurements of concentration statistics from isolated andm u ltiple sources,Bo u nd. Laye r. Me te oro l. 31, 249-268. SAWFORD,B.L. (1986).Atmospheric dispersion of heavygases and smalfparticles. Eds. G. Oomsand H. Tennekes.Dynamics of Atmos.& Ocea ns, l0: 261-262. [Book Review]. SAWFORD,B.L. (1986).Generalized random forcing in random-walk turbulentdispersion models. Tlrc Physics of Fluids,29:3582-85
92 SAWFORD, B.L. andJ.C.R. HUNT (1986).Effects of turbulence structure.molecular diffusion and source-sizeon fluctuationsof concentrationin homogeneousturbulence. '/ . Fluid Mech' 165, 373-400. SAWFORD. B.L. and H. STAPOUNTZIS (1986).Concentration fluctuationsaccording to fluctuatingplume modelsin one and two dimensions.Bound.Layer Meteor', 37:.89-I05. STAPOUNTZIS. H.. B.L. SAWFORD, J.C.R' HUNT and R.E. BRITTER (1986).Structure of the temperaturefield downwind of a line sourcein grid turbulence.J. Fltlid Mech. L65,4Ol-424. SAWFORD, B.L. (1987).Conditional concentration statistics for surface plumesin the atmosphericboundary layer' Bound.Layer Meteor.,38" 209-223. SAWFORD,B.L. (19S7). Turbulence and turbulent dispersion from elevatedsources in theconvective boundary layer - a briefreview with implicationsfor LatrobeValley Power Stations. Clean Air,2l: ll-17. SAWFORD,B.L. andF.M. GUEST (1987). Lagrangian stochastic analysisof flux-gradientrelationships in theconvective boundary layer. J.Atntos.Sci., 44(8): I 152-l165. SAWFORD,B.L. (1988).Comments on transilientturbulence theory PartsI andlll, J. Atntos.Sci., 45,2092-2A93' SAWFORD,B.L. andF.M. CUEST (1988). Uniqueness and universality of Lagrangianstochastic models of turbulentdispersion, Proc. 8th SymposiunronTurbulence and Dffitsion, April26-29, San Diego' California(AMS, Boston). ALLISON.I..C.M. TIVENDALE and G.R. COPSON (1985)' Annual saltand energy budget beneath an antarcticfast ice cover.Annals of Glaciolo gy, 6: I 82-1 86. TUCKER,G.B. (1986). Nuclear winter or thecredibility of thethird horseman.Clean Ait',20: 3-4. TUCKER,G.B. (1986). Trace gas trends in theSouthern Hemisphere' WemerStrauss Memorial Lecture and Congress Keynote. Clean Air, 20:73-76. TUCKER,G.B. (1987). Climate Change. ln: Proceedingsof l6th NationaICongress, IJrban Developmentlnstitute of Australia, Melbourne.p.81-95. TUCKER,G.B. (1988). Surface heat flux andthe diurnal development of theconvective boundary layer. B ulgarian Geophysical Journal, 3(14): zv-J t. TURNER,P.J., A.C. DILLEY, C.C. ELSUM andD.B. SMITH (1987)' TheArlunya image processing workstation,ln'. Proc. lst Australian AVH R R Co nfe r en c e, Perth,Westem A ustralia, O ctober22-24, 1986 : CSIRODivision of GroundwaterResearch, pp.44-48. WALLEY,C.G. (1987). Satellite tracking antenna mechanical design and construction.ln: Proc.Tlird NationalSpace Engineering Symposirtm. WEBB,E.K. (1986). Discussion of "Evaporationand potential evaporation- a practicalapproach for agriculturalengineers" by P.J' Wattsand N.H. HancockInstn Engrs, Aust., Mech. Engg. Trans. ME l0 (4) 233-234. WEBB,E.K. (1988). Convective processes in thelower atmosphere: commentary.ln Flow ArtdTransportInThe NaturalEnvironment: AdvancesAnd Applicatiotts, eds. W.L. Steffenand O.T. Denmead (Springer)pp. 261 -269. EVANS,L.F.,I.A. WEEKS and A.J. ECCLESTON (1985)' Measurementsof photochemical precursors in theMelbourne atmosphere.Cle a n Air, 19:.2l -29.
93 EVANS,L.F., I.A. WEEKSand A.J. ECCLESTON (1986). A chamber studyof photochemicalsmog in Melboume,Australia - presentand future.Atmospheric Ent,ironnrcnt, 20: 1355-1368. YOUNG,S.A., D. CUTTEN,M.J. LYNCH andJ.E.DAVIES (1986). Aerosolstudies in mid-latitudecoastal environments in Australia.In: Reprintsl3th InternationalLaser Radar Conference, Toronto, Canada, AugustI l-15,1986, NASA ConferencePublication243l, pp 16-19. YOUNG,S.A. (1987). Lidar optical alignment and its verification. AppIied Opri cs,26; 1612-1616. YOUNG,S.A. (1987). A logarithmicamplifier for LIDAR receivers. J.P hy s. E., Sc' i etttifi c I ttstt' un rc nt s, 20: 403-406. YOUNG.S.A. and M.J. LYNCH (1981.Lidar observations of smoke plumedispersion for tall stacksin a coastalenvironment. Clean Air,2l: 25-30.
94 Conferencepresentations
SecondAustralian Conference on TropicalMeteorology, Perth, 11-12 July 1985 HENDON,H. - Linearand nonlinear response to tropicaldiabatic heating PRATA,A.J. and M.J. LYNCH - Satelliteradiance measurements of tropicalcyclones ANZAAS,Melbourne, August 1985 AYERS,G.P.- Acid rain: theAustralian context FourthAustralian Laser Conference, Macquarie University' August 1985 PLATT,C.M.R. and J.C. SCOTT - Theapplication of high-powerpulsed lasersin meteorologyand climatology IAMAP/IAPSOJoint Assembly,Honolulu,5-16 August 1985 FREDERIKSEN,J.S. and WEBSTER, P'J' - Altemativetheories of atmosphericteleconnections and Iow-frequency fl uctuations PITTOCK.A.B. - Climaticeffects of nuclearwar: an overview Fourth WMO ScientificConference on WeatherModification, Honolulu,12-14 August' 1985 LONG,A.B. et al.- Jointremote-sensing, radar, and surface microphysicalinvestigations of winterorographic clouds in centralUtah' USA SecondWorkshop on Wind Engineeringand Industrial Aerodynamics,Highett, 28-30 August 1985 MANINS.P.C. - Thewind in a broadvalley - theLatrobe Valley of Victoria SAWFORD,B.L. - Plumeconcentration statistics in theatmospheric boundarylayer CACGPConference on AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide' Kandersteg' Switzerland,2-6 September' 1985 ENTING,I.G. - Theapplication of latticestatistics to bubbletrapping in ice Workshopon AtmosphericTransport Processes and Plant Canopies, Canberra,4-6 September 1985 WEBB,E.K. - theB-B combinationmethod InternationalConference on AcidicPrecipitation' Muskokar Canadat 15-20September 1985 GALBALLY,I.E. - Dry depositionof NOzand HNO3 and emission of NO - How muchdo we know? Bureauof ReclamationWorkshop on the Physicsof Winter OrographicPrecipitation and its Modification,Denver, Colorado, 1'3 October1.985 LONG.A.B. andJ. HEIMBACH- Discussionson seedingmethods, transportand diffusion of seeding
95 DroughtResearch in Australia1985, Melbourne,2l-22 October 1.985 BARTON,I.J. - SAVE- a satellitevalidation experiment HUNT,B.G. - Droughtresearch - the modelling approach PITTOCK,A.B. - Teleconnectionpattems, can they be usedfor drought forecasting? AnnualMeeting of the AustralianBaseline Monitoring Program, Aspendale,November 1985 FRASER,P., N. DEREK,R. O'BRIEN,R. SHEPHERD, R. RASMUSSEN,A. CRAWFORDand L. STEELE- Intercomparisonof halocarbonand nitrous oxide measurements. 1976-1984 SeventhSymposium on Turbulenceand Diffusion,Boulder, Colorado 12-15November 1985 SAWFORD,B.L. - Concentrationstatistics for surfaceplumes in the atmosphericboundary Iayer Fall Meetingof theAmerican Geophysical Union, San Francisco, California.December 1985 STEELE,L., P.FRASER, R. RASMUSSEN,M. KHALIL, A. CRAWFORD,T. CONWAY,R. GAMMON,K. MASARIEand K. THONING- Theglobal distribution of methanein therroposphere STEELE,L., T. CONWAY,L. WATERMAN,R. GAMMON, P.FRASER, R. WEISSand R. RASMUSSEN- Measurements of atmosphericmethane from the Akademik Korolev cruise, October-December1983 Air-SeaInteraction and its ConsequencesConference, Sydney, 2-5February 1986 BAINES,P.G. and G.D. HUBBERT - TheBass Strait flux experiment BARTON,I.J. - How accuratelycan satellites measure sea surface temperature? WEBB,E.K. - Freeconvection theory and the air-sea bulk transfer relationship First AustralasianWorkshop on Climatology,University of Newcastle,13-14 February 1986 PITTOCK,A.B. - Anticipatingfuture climates EighthSession of theCo-ordinating Committee on the Ozonelayer (CCOL),Nairobi, Kenya, March 1986 FRASER,P. - Recentresearch results on on-goingresearch activities relevantto theWorld Plan of Actionon theOzone Layer: Australia SCOPEWorkshop on TropicalAcidification, Caracas, Yenezuela, 6-11April 1986 AYERS.G.P. - Acidificationin Australia GALBALLY, I.E. andR.W. GILLETT - Processesregulating nitrogen compoundsin thetropical atmosphere SecondAVHRR UsersMeeting, Rutherford AppletonLab., Oxford, U.K.,April 1986 BARTON,I.J. - AVHRRmeasurements of land surface emissivity TenthConference on WeatherModification, Arlington, Virginia, 27-30May 1986 LONG,A,B, - Mesoscaleair motionsand supercooled liquid water developmentin winterclouds in a mountainousregion
96 Conferenceon Sciencein theNational Parks, Fort Collins'Colorado' July 1986 PEILKE,R.A., R.W. ARRITT, R.T. MCNIDER, M. SEGAL,C.H. YU andW.L. PHYSICK - Screeningestimates of maximum24-hour average pollutionconcentrations on mountainvalleys during synoptic stagnation RoyalAustralian Chemical Institute/Federation of AsianChemical SocietiesMeeting on EnvironmentalChemistry, Darwin, Australia' 7-11July 1986 GALBALLY,I.E. - Nitrogencycling in thetropical atmosphere WMO/IUGG NumericalWeather Prediction Symposium' Tokyo' 4-8 August1986 McGREGOR,J.L. - Accuracyand initialization of a two-timelevel semi-Lagrangianmodel Third InternationalTOVS StudyConference, Wisconsin' U.S.A.' 13-19August 1986 PRATA.A.J., M.J. LYNCH, R. HILLE andL. VAN BURGEL- Observationsof tropicalcyclones in WestemAustralia using combined TOVSand AVHRR radiances SeventhWorld CleanAir Congress,Sydney, August 1986 FRASER,P. - Carbonmonoxide in theSouthern Hemisphere IGARSSSymposium, Zurich, Switzerland, September 1986 LLEWELLYN-JONES,D.T., I.J. BARTON, J. DELDERFIELD, I.M. MASON.D.R. PICK andE.J. WILLIAMSON - Thealong track scanningradiometer for ERS-1:Performance, calibration and validation Conferenceon CloudPhvsics, Snowmass, Colorado,22'26 September 1986 LONG,A.B. et al.- Remotesensing investigation of themesoscale kinematicsand the microphysics of a wintermountain storm SeventhAustralian Institute of PhysicsCongress, Workshop on solar-terrestrialand spacephysics, Adelaide,25-29 September 1986 HUNT,B.G. - Generalcirculation modelling of themiddle atmosphere First AustralianAVHRR Conference,Perth, Western Australia' 22-24October t986 BARBER,J. andG.W. PALTRIDGE - Fuelmoisture content of vegetationfrom AVHRR - anoperational fire potential monitoring system PRATA.A.J.. A.F. PEARCE, J.B. WELLS ANd J. CARRIER - SAtCIIitE sea surfacetemperature measurements of theLeeuwin current M.J.LYNCH, A.J. PRATA and J.R. HUNT - Seasurface temperature anomaliesoff theNorth West shelf of WestemAustralia WELLSJ.B. and A.J. PRATA - ProcessingNOAA dataon microcomputers HILLE R.,L. VAN BURGEL,M.J. LYNCH andA.J. PRATA - Applicationsof NOAA satellitedata to thestudy of tropicalcyclones HICK P.T.,A.J. PRATA andN.A. CAMPBELL - NOAA-AVHRR satelliteevaluation of theareal extent of bushfiredamage in Westem Australia TURNER,P.J. et al.- TheArlunya Image Processing Workstation
97 Civil DefenceSymposium, Natural Disasters Organisation, Victoria, Australia.22-24 October 1986 GALBALLY,I.E. - Climatologyand civil defencein Australia. ScientificApplications of BaselineObservations of Atmospheric Composition,Aspendale, November 19E6 AYERS,G.P. - Sulfateand methanesulfonate in the maritime aerosol at CapeGrim, Tasmania NationalForum on Scienceand Technology,Canberra,6-7 November 1986 PITTOCK,A.B. - The economicimportance of environmentalresearch Australiaand NewZealand Solar Energy Society Conference, Aclelaide,12-14 November 1986 AKBARZADE,A andP.C.MANINS - Sidewall effects in theoperation of solarponds LatrobeValley Air ShedStudy modellers workshop, Melbourne, 18 November1986 ABBS,D.J. - Comparativeexperiments between two prognostic models undersummertime conditions in theLatrobe Valley. Part I - theCSU mesoscalemodel McGREGOR,J.L. - Comparativeexperiments between two prognostic models.Part II - theMRI localwinds model PHYSICK,W.L. - Why theLatrobe Valley is interestingmeteorologically SCORSymposium - Interfacesin the Ocean,Hobart,24-26 November1986. WEBB,E.K. - Prospectsfor measurementof air-sea COz transfer AMS SouthernHemisphere Meteorology Conference, Wellington, NewZealand, 1-5 December 1986 GARRATT,J.R. - Numericalstudy ol atmosphericgravity cunents, with referenceto Australiansulnmertime cold fronts HENDON,H. - On thestructure and dynamics of thetroposphere over the AustralianTropical Region HOWELLS.P.A.C. - A numericalstudy of theI December1982 SoutherlyBuster Event Ninth AustralasianFluid MechanicsConference, Auckland, 8-12 December1986 FREDERIKSEN.J.S. and C.S. FREDERIKSEN - The roles of baroclinic andmembarotropic instability during cyclogenesis and atmospheric blocking SAWFORD,B.L. andF.M. GUEST - Lagrangianstatistical simulation of turbulentdispersion in theconvective boundary Iayer Conferenceon Mechanismsof Interannualand LongerTerm ClimaticVariations, Melbourne, 8-12 December 1986 FREDERIKSEN,J.S. - Instabilitytheory of atmosphericfluctuations GORDON,H.B. - Interannualclimatic fluctuations attributable to nonlinearities HUGHES,R.L. - Thehydraulic switch for westemboundary heat flux HUNT,B.G. - Nonlinearinfluences in climaticperturbations HUNT,B.G. - Theinfluence of anozone hole on climate- experiments witha generalcirculation model PALTRIDGE,G.W. - Cloud-radiativeinteractions and infrared absorbers
98 PITTOCK,A.B. - Sensitivitystudies on nuclearwinter effects with implicationsfor changedclimates PLUMB,R.A. - Instabilitiesof simplecoupled atmosphere-ocean models Workshopon low-levelflow aroundbushfires - studyand measurement,Canberra, 17 December 1986 GARRATT,J.R. - Windsin thelower atmosphere: A Review PHYSICK,W.L. - Numericalmodelling of low-levelwinds and its practicalapplication ANZAAS Congress,Palmerston North, NZ, 26-30January 1987 PITTOCK,A.B. - Atrnosphericand climatic consequences of nuclear war SCOPE-ENUWARWorkshop, Bangkok, Thailand' 9'12 February 1987 PITTOCK,A.B. - Sensitivitystudies on nuclearwinter effects in the southernhemisphere with widerimplications GMCC AnnualMeeting, Boulder, Colorado, March 1987 AYERS,G.P. - Measuremelltprograms at theCape Grim Baseline Station EighthSymposium on Turbulenceand Diffusion,San Diego, California,April 1987 GARRATT,J.R. - Interactionbetween the planetary boundary layer and anevolving atmospheric gravity current SAWFORD,B.L. andF.M. GUEST - Uniquenessand universality of Lagrangianstochastic models of turbulentdispersion AmericanChemical Society Symposium on AtmosphericMethane' Denver,Colorado, April 1987 FRASER,P.J. - Globalmethane: a Southem Hemisphere perspective AustralianInstitute for Refrigeration,Air Conditioningand Heating Workshop,Parkville, Victoria, April 1987 FRASER,P.J. - Chlorofluorocarbons,stratospheric ozone and the refrigerationindustry MesoscaleTopographic Effects in the AustralianRegion' Aspendale' L May 1987 BAINES,P. - Stratifiedflow past3-D barriers McGREGOR.J.L. - Altemativemechanisms for theMelbourne eddy PHYSICK,W. andD,J. ABBS - LatrobeValley flows Bushfiresin HeathConference, Canberra, 4'6N'f.ay 1987 BEER,T. - BushfirePhysics SimulationSociety of AustraliaBiennial Conference, Melbourne' 11-13May 1987 BEER,T. - Modellingthe physical environment FREDERIKSEN,C.S. and J.S. FREDERIKSEN - Simulation and models of therole of topographicinstability in theformation of atmospheric teleconnectionpatterns AustralianConference on Lasersand Spectroscopy,Surfers Paradise, 11-15May 1987 BANK, S.M.,C.M.R. PLATT, D.J. BOOTH and G.R. PATTERSON - Lidarremote sensing at CSIRO Division of AtmosphericResearch BOOTH.D.J., S.M. BANKS, J. GRAS and C.M.R. PLATT - Lidar measurementof aerosol backscatter and comparison with Mie calculations usingmeasured aerosol profiles
99 NERDDCWorkshop on the ScientificBasis of Standardsfor the Releaseof EnergyBased Air Pollutantsin Australia,Canberra, 19.20 May 1987 MANINS,P.C. - Assimilativecapacity of theLatrobe Valley airshed for emissionsfrom energy-related industrial activity CARRAS,J., G. ROSS,B.L. SAWFORDand R. SIMPSON- Methodsof source-receptormodelling for airquality applications Workshopon forecastingimplications of the ColdFronts Research Programme,Melbourne, 2-3 June 1987 PHYSICK,W.L. - TypeI andType 2 fronts PHYSICK,W.L. - Whatdo surfaceobservations mean? PHYSICK,W.L. - Topographiceffects RYAN, B.F.- Prognosisof linefeatures
CleanAir Societyof Australia and New Zealand,Queensland Branch AnnualMeeting, Brisbane, June 1987 FRASER.P.J. - Ozonein theupper atmosphere Meetingon Prioritiesin Research,Operations and Educationin Meteorologyand PhysicalOceanography in Australia,Melbourne, 2-3 July 1987 PITTOCK,A.B. - Prioritiesin climaticresearch InstituteofForesters Conference, "Tasmania's Forests . Beyond 2000",Tasmania 4 July 1987 PITTOCK,A.B. - ForestsBeyond 2000 - effectsof atmosphericchange. Workshopon CumulusParameterization, Melbourne,22 July 1987 McGREGOR,J.L. - TheBMRC spectral model: choice of parameterizationscheme CoherentLaser Radar: Technology and Applications,Aspen, Coforado, July 27-30, 1987 GRAS,J.L. - Australianfree atmospheric-aerosol measurements IUGG GeneralAssembly, Special Session on GlobalTropospheric Chemistry,Vancouver, Canada, 9-22 August 1987 GALBALLY, I.E.- Nitrogenchemistry in theatmosphere IUGG GeneralAssembly, Vancouver 12-18 August, 1987 BAINES,P.G. and G.D. HUBBERT - TheBass Strait Flux Experiment - fluid transportsand causes BAINES,P.G. - Topographiceffects in theatmosphere - a review PITTOCK,A.B. - Climaticeffects of smokeand dust produced from nuclearconflagrations Symposiumon MesoscaleAnalysis and Forecasting, Vancouver, Canada,17-19 August 1987 WILSON,K.J. and B.F. RYAN - Therole of low-levelcooling in a conceptualmodel of theAustralian summer time cool change: implications for very-short-rangeforecasting Third Conferenceon MesoscaleProcesses, Yancouver, Canadar2l-26 August 1987 RYAN,8.F.,G.R. TRIPOLI and W.R. COTTON - Upside-down convectionDown Under: A numericalstudv
r00 International ConferenceOn ComputationalTechniques And Applications,Sydney, 24-27 Lugust 1987 FREDERIKSEN,J.S. and R.C. BELL - Simulationsand closure theory for interactingbarotropic waves FREDERIKSEN,C.S. and J.S. FREDERIKSEN - The application of spectraltechniques in a studyof thestability of orographicallyforced planetarywaves KLEEMAN,R., J.S. FREDERIKSEN and R.C. BELL - Statistical dynamicsof Quasi-geostrophicfl ows InternationalGeographical Union Study Group on RecentClimatic Change,Sheffield, UI(,24-28 August 1987 PITTOCK,A.B. - Clirnaticeffects of nuclearwar: a perspectivefrom the SouthemHemisphere PITTOCK,A.B. - Towardsestimates of thepractical consequences of the greenhouseeffect CACGPSymposium on TroposphericChemistry, Peterborough, Canada,August 1987 FRASER,P.J. - TheCSIRO global methane program InternationalSymposium on Flow and Transportin theNatural Environment,Canberra,31 August- 4 September1987 MANINS,P.C. - Windblocking in periodicvalleys InternationalSatellite Land SurfaceClimatology Project' Yalta' USSR,September 1987 HUNT,B.G. - Surfacehydrology irnpact in a generalcirculation model EleventhConference on WeatherModification, Edmonton, Alberta' 6-8October 1987 LONG,A.B. - Onthe precipitation efficiency of a wintermountain storm in Utah IAF Congress,Brighton, U.K.' October1987 BARTON,I.J., - FutureAustralian participation in meteorologyfrom space NASA OzoneTrends Panel Meeting, Les Raisses Ste-Croix' Switzerland.November 1987 FRASER,P.J. - Trendsiu sourcegases Greenhouse87 Conference,Melbourne,30 November - 4 December 1987 BEER,T., A.M. GILL andP.H.R. MOORE. - Australianbushfire danger underchanging clirnatic regimes PEARMAN,G.l. - Greenhousegases: evidence for atmosphericchanges andanthropogenic causes PITTOCK,A.B. - Actualand anticipated changes in Australia'sclimate TUCKER,G.B. - Climatemodelling: how does it work? LatrobeValley Air ShedStudy Modelling Seminar,4 December 1987 McGREGOR,J.L. - In searchof theGabo Island eddy AustralianApplied Mathematics Conference, Leura, 7-11 February' 1988 BEER,T. - Optimisingperformance of bushfirespread models ENTING,I.G. and G.N. NEWSAM - Inverseproblems in atmospheric collstituentstudies
101 SecondConference on Air-SeaInteraction, Merimbula, NSW, 14.17 February1988 BAINES,P.G. and G.D. HUBBERT - Fluidtransport through Bass Strait BARTON,I.J. and J.D. PENROSE - Experimental investigations of bulk/skintemperature differences in theopen ocean HUGHES,R.L. - An aspectof coastalcunent separation HUNT,B.G. - Someoceanic problems in climaticresearch WALSH,K. andA.B. PITTOCK - Thesensitivity of a coupled atmospheric-oceanicmodel to variationsin thealbedo and absorptivity of a stratosphel'icaerosol layer Conferenceon GlobalChange, Australian Academy of Science,24.27 February1988 GALBALLY,I.E. - Thebiosphere, atmospheric composition and climate HUNT,B.G. - Perturbationsto general atmospheric circulation caused by globalchange PEARMAN,G.l. - Thegreenhouse effect PITTOCK,A.B. - Changesin climaticvariability TUCKER,C.B. - Globalgeosphere-biosphere modelling GlobalChange Conference, Canberra, February 1988 PITTOCK,A.B. - Regionalclimatic change and its impacts WMO Meetingon Time Seriesanalysis of CO2 data,Hilo, Hawaii, March 1988 ENTING,I.G. - COzmeasurements of CSIRO (Australia) ENTING,I.G. - Studiesof baselineselection criteria for CapeGrim ENTING,I.G. - Somecomments on Kalmanfiltering of COzdata ENTING,LG. - Timeseries studies of COzdata in Divisionof AtrnosphericResearch ENTING,I.G. and M. MANNING.- Theseasonal cycle of CO2at Mauna Loa:A re-analysisofa digitalfiltering study PropelMedia Symposium, Sydney, March 1988 FRASER,P.J. - NASA OzoneTrends Panel Report AerosolAssociation of AustraliaMedia Seminar, Sydney, April 1988 FRASER,P.J. - NASAOzone Trends Panel Report AnnualMeeting Science Teachers Association of NSI{, Sydney,April 1988 FRASER.P.J. - TheAntarctic Ozone Hole AnnualMeeting Science Teachers Association of Victoria,Monash University,April 1988 FRASER,P.J. - AntarcticOzone CentenaryANZAAS Conference, Sydney, May 1988 BARTON,LJ. - Rernotesensing from ERS-1 FRASER.P.J. - Depletionof stratosphericozone SpectralModelling Workshop, Melbourne University,24 May 1988 McGREGOR,J.L. - Imptementationof the boundary layer and cumulus parameterizationschemes in theBMRC spectral model Symposiumon GreenhouseEffect and OzoneDepletion, Bussleton, WA, May 1988. FRASER,P.J. - NASAOzone Trends Panel Report.
t02 LatrobeValley Airshed Study End-of-Study Symposium, Melbourne' 20-21June 1988 AYERS,G.P. - TheLatrobe Valley Aerosol/Visibility Study MCGREGOR,J.L. and D.J. ABBS - Modellingmesoscale effects in the Lan'obeValley with a nestedmodel MANINS,P.C. - Meteorologyand air qualityof theLatrobe Valley SdWFORD,B.L. - Primaryair pollution in theLatrobe Valley Air QualityModelling - Scienceand Application.NERD&D Program Worksliop,Melbourne, 23-24 June 1988 BAINES,P.C. - Laborarorysimulation of topographiceffects on atmoSphericflows in stableconditions BORGAS,M.S. - Recentmodelling developments in turbulent dispersion problenrs MANINS,P.C. - Modelperfortnance in theLatrobe Valley Airshed Study PHYSICK,W.L. - Mesoscalerneteorological and Lagrangian dispersion models: a numericalsystem for pl'edictingair quality NationalFisheries Forum and Exhibition88, Brisbane' 28'30 June 1988 BOUMA,W.J. - El Nino,the greenhouse effect and the Antarctic ozone hole:perturbations of theahnospheric/ocean system RICHARDSON,S.A. - Satellitederived sea-surface temperature imagery
103 Staff
30June I 988 Chiefof Division G.B.Tucker, BSc, PhD, DIC ScientificAssistant to the Chief(Scientific Services Officer) W.J.Bouma, MSc, PhD, ARACI DivisionalSecretary (Administrative Services Offi cer) D.M. Slater ChiefResearch Scientist G.W.Paltridge, MSc, PltD, DSc, FAA SeniorPrincipal Research Scientists J.S.Frederiksen, BSc, PhD, DSc, FAIP B.G.Hunt, BSc(Eng), MSc G.I.Pearman. BSc. PhD C.M.R.Platt, MSc, PhD PrincipalResearch Scientists G.P.Ayers, BSc, PhD, ARACI P.G.Baines, BA, BSc,PhD I.J.Barton, BSc, PhD LG.Enting, BSc, PhD, GDip CS R.J.Francey, BSc, PltD P.J.Fraser, BSc, PhD I.E.Galbally, MSc J.R.Garratt, BSc, PhD, DIC A.B.Long, BA, BSc,PhD * P.C.Manins, BSc, BE, PhD A.B. Pittock,MSc, PhD B.F.Ryan, BSc, PltD B,L. Sawford,BSc, PhD, DIC SeniorResearch Scientists J.L.Gras, BSc, PhD R.L.Hughes, MEngSc, PhD * J.L.McGregor, BSc, PhD D.M.O'Brien, MSc, PhD W.L. Physick,BSc, PhD A.J.Prata, BSc, MSc, DPhil, ARCS, DIC * ResearchScientists S.M.Banks, BSc, PhD M.S.Borgas, MSc, PhD * M.F.Hibberd, BSc(Hons), PhD * R.M.Mitchell, BSc, PhD * SeniorExperimental Scientists R.C.Bell, BSc, PhD A.C.Dilley, BSc R.H.Hill, BE, Dip ElecEug
105 ExperimentalScientists D.J.Abbs, BSc, PhD * D.J.Beardsmore, ARMIT J.W.Bennet, Dip ElecEng S.T.Bentley BSc(Hons) * R. Cechet,BSc * T.J.David, BSc A.G.Davies. BA M.R.Dix, BSc A.J.Eccleston, BAppSc, ARMIT C.C.Elsum, BAppSc R.W.Gillett, BSc H.B.Gordon, BSc, PhD * H. Granek,BSc * F.M.Cuest, BSc S.Harding, BSc, PhD K.J.Hennessy, BSc(Hons) * J.P.Ivey, BSc, MSc E. Kowalczyk,MEngSc * J.V.Mansbridge, BSc(Hons), PhD C.M.Meyer, BSc, PhD * R.C.O'Brien, BAppSc G.R.Patterson, BAppSc S.A.Richardson, BSc * F.J.Robbins, BSc, PhD * C.M.Tivendale, BSc P.J.Tumer, BSc(Hons), PhD C.G.Walley, Dip MechEng K.J,Walsh, BA, MSc I.A. Weeks,MSc, PhD S.A.Young, BSc(Hons), PhD * Librarian E.A.Davy, BSc, Dip Lib, ALAA Library Officer G. Burt,Cert AppSc (Lib Tech) HonoraryResearch Fellow E.K.Webb, BA, BSc SeniorTechnical Oflicers F.R.de Silva H.S.Goodman, Cert InstrTech G. Grauze D.L. Munay N.G.Richards G.F.Rutter J. Stevenson D.S.Whillas,ARMIT J. Wren TechnicalOfficers R.T.Armstrong J.M.Bathols C.M.Elsworth V. Jemmeson,Post Grad Dip - Commun
106 S.M.Kepert R.J.McVay P.J.Nelson G.O.Scott L.G.Tout B. Turner A.J.Walker TechnicalAssistants E.R.Bearzatto S.A.Coram N. Derek L.A. Duffy M. Edwards,LRIC G. Fergadiotis T.H.Firestone S.A.Higgins * G.R.Matthews, Assoc Dip Sclnst R.S.Page C.A.Srrith AdministrativeServices Offi cers K.W.Barker D.G.Clifton C.J.Davey J.M.Dobinson P.M.Kaing M. Laricchia,Dip Ed M.A, Maher A.E.Peck J.L.Rowan M.L. Sparshon M.B.Swingler S.M.Webdale PersonalSecretary R. Baum RadioTradesman T.W.Carey D.A,Hartwick SeniorLaboratory Craftsmen R.J.Henry A. Reynolds Storeman P.R.Hanis Handyman G. Broome Assistant(Food Service) A.J.Hopkins *
* Joinedthe Division during the period 1985-1988.
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