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Space Policies, Issues and Trends 2007/2008 SPACE POLICIES, ISSUES AND TRENDS IN 2007/2008 Report 15, September 2008 Nicolas PETER, ESPI DISCLAIMER This Report has been prepared for the client in accordance with the associated contract and ESPI will accept no liability for any losses or damages arising out of the provision of the report to third parties. Short Title: ESPI Report 15, September 2008 Editor, Publisher: ESPI European Space Policy Institute A-1030 Vienna, Schwarzenbergplatz 6 Austria http://www.espi.or.at Tel.: +43 1 718 11 18 - 0 Fax - 99 Copyright: © ESPI, September 2008 Rights reserved - No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without permission from ESPI. Citations and extracts to be published by other means are subject to mentioning “source: © ESPI Report 15, September 2008. All rights reserved” and sample transmission to ESPI before publishing. Price: 11,00 EUR Printed by ESA/ESTEC Layout and Design: M. A. Jakob/ESPI and Panthera.cc Ref.: PO-1080321/P29 Report 15, September 2008 2 Space Policies, Issues and Trends 2007/2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 6 Background 6 Objectives of this study 6 Chapter 1 - Global political and economic trends 7 1.1 Global economic outlook 7 1.2 Political developments 8 1.2.1 Europe 8 1.2.2 Asia 8 1.2.3 Africa 9 1.2.4 Americas 10 1.2.5 The Middle East 10 1.3 Major scientific achievements 11 1.4 Selected Focus 12 1.4.1 Europe in 2007/08 12 1.4.2 The United States in 2007/08 15 1.4.3 Russia in 2007/08 16 1.4.4 Japan in 2007/08 16 1.4.5 China in 2007/08 17 1.4.6 India in 2007/08 17 Chapter 2 - Global space sector - size and developments 19 2.1 Global space budgets and revenues 19 2.2 Overview of institutional space budgets 19 2.3 Overview of commercial space markets 26 2.3.1 Satellite services 26 Direct Broadcast Services 26 Fixed Satellite Services 28 Mobile Satellite Services 31 2.3.2 Satellite manufacturing 32 2.3.3 Launch sector 32 2.3.4 Ground equipment 34 2.3.5 Insurance sector 35 2.3.6 Emerging commercial markets 35 Chapter 3 – Global space policies and strategies 38 3.1 Europe 38 3.2 European Space Agency 38 3.3 European Union 40 3.4 Eumetsat 43 3.5 National governments 44 3.5.1 France 44 3.5.2 Germany 45 3.5.3 Italy 46 3.5.4 The United Kingdom 46 3.6 The United States 47 3.6.1 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 47 3.6.2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 50 3.6.3 Department of Defense (DoD) 50 3.7 Russia 50 3.8 Japan 52 3.9 China 53 European Space Policy Institute 3 Report 15, September 2008 3.10 India 54 3.11 Emerging space powers 56 3.11.1 Africa 56 3.11.2 Asia 56 3.11.3 The Middle East 57 3.11.4 Oceania 58 3.11.5 South America 58 3.12 International sectoral comparisons 58 3.12.1 Launch sector 58 3.12.2 Missions launched 60 3.12.3 Overall assessment 62 Chapter 4 - European institutional market 63 4.1 European institutional market 63 4.2 Civilian space expenditure 63 4.3 European Space Agency 64 4.4 Eumetsat 64 4.5 National agencies 66 4.5.1 France 66 4.5.2 Germany 67 4.5.3 Italy 68 4.6 European Union 68 4.7 Security-related space expenditures 68 4.8 The institutional market and its impact on the industrial base 70 Chapter 5 - Space industry evolutions 71 5.1 Industrial evolutions in Europe 71 5.2 Industrial evolutions in the United States 73 5.3 Industrial evolutions in Russia 74 5.4 Industrial evolutions in Japan 76 5.5 Industrial evolutions in China 76 5.6 Trans-Atlantic industrial comparison 76 5.6.1 State of the European space industry 76 5.6.2 State of the United States’ space industry 80 5.7 Sectoral overview 82 5.7.1 Launch sector 82 2007 results 83 Launch contracts awarded in 2007 86 5.7.2 Satellite manufacturing sector 89 2007 results 89 Satellites contracts awarded in 2007 90 5.7.3 Satellite operators 92 Chapter 6 – The defence perspective 94 6.1 Recent trends in military expenditure 94 6.2 Global space military context 94 6.3 European space military context 96 6.3.1 National initiatives 96 6.3.2 European Union level 98 6.3.3 European Space Agency 99 6.3.4 Other European institutions 99 6.4 The United States 100 6.5 Russia 102 6.6 Japan 102 6.7 China 102 6.8 India 103 6.9 Other space actors 103 Report 15, September 2008 4 Space Policies, Issues and Trends 2007/2008 Chapter 7 – The specific roles of institutions 105 7.1 European institutions 105 7.1.1 Council of the European Union and its Presidencies 105 7.1.2 European Commission 107 7.1.3 European Union Agencies 109 7.1.4 European Parliament 109 7.2 Other institutions 110 7.2.1 Assembly of the Western European Union (WEU) 110 7.2.2 European Interparliamentary Space Conference (EISC) 110 7.2.3 Network of European Regions Using Space Technologies (NEREUS) 111 7.3 International institutions 112 7.3.1 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) 112 7.3.2 UNGA Committees 112 Disarmament and International Security Committee 113 Special Political and Decolonisation Committee 113 Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space 113 7.3.3 Other UN bodies and organs monitoring outer space activities 114 7.4 Non-governmental organisations (NGOs) 117 European Space Policy Institute 5 Report 15, September 2008 Space Policies, Issues and Trends 2007/2008 Introduction Background From 2002 until 2005, the European Space Agency (ESA) published annual reports that provided an overview of the European space sector in a global context. These reports entitled “The European Space Sector in a Global Context” took into account the geopolitical and economic changes that occurred in a given year and which were of importance for the European space sector. These aspects were then analysed in a boarder context. ESA’s annual analysis also presented facts and figures of other space powers in order to be able to view the development of the European space sector in a larger perspective. Objectives of this Study In 2006, ESA’s DG Policy Office tasked the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) based in Vienna (Austria) under a specific contract to conduct a nine-month study on global issues and trends in the space sector covering the period 1 January 2006 to 30 June 2007. ESA’s DG Policy Office commissioned a similar study in 2007 for the period 2007/2008. The ESPI study “Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2007/2008” aims to present in a single document, comprehensive data and analyses characterising global space activities from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008. This report provides an overview of the European space sector in a global context. It takes into account geopolitical and economic changes that are of relevance and importance for current and future developments in the European space sector. It provides facts and figures on the latest European activities, while putting them into perspective with the situations of other major space-faring countries, notably the United States, Russia, Japan, China and India. European Space Policy Institute 6 Report 15, September 2008 Space Policies, Issues and Trends 2007/2008 Chapter 1 - Global political and economic trends 2007 and the first half of 2008 was a period countries have also been affected. The marked by the confirmation of several key International Monetary Fund (IMF) is trends that appeared in recent years such as anticipating potential losses and write-downs the economic and political rise of powers in the financial sector of about 945 billion from the “South” like China and India as well U.S. dollars, with banks suffering slightly as the recovery of Russia, while the “North” more than half of total losses, with the rest witnessed limited growth, particularly the affecting insurance companies, pension United States. Climate change and global funds, hedge funds and other investors. 2 warming are increasingly being perceived as Consequently, near-term growth prospects of serious global threats demanding an urgent all major economies have weakened (Table and coordinated global response. In addition, 1). skyrocketing prices of natural resources such as oil and gas, but also the rise of primary According to the IMF, the world output in products’ prices is further aggravating the 2007 reached 5%: a similar level to 2006 global economic situation. (Table 1). Global economic growth is projected at 4.1% in 2008 and 3.9% in 2009 (Table 1). The projections for advanced economies have been reduced significantly in 1.1 Global economic recent months and there are looming threats outlook of recession for the second half of 2008. This is the result of deteriorating market conditions and limited U.S. growth which are The expansion of the world economy affecting economic activities in other remained robust in 2007 (Table 1). However, advanced economies. The main risks to the global economic growth slowed markedly in outlook for global growth are that on-going the final quarter of 2007 following major turmoil in financial markets (partly due to losses in the financial sector originating in the liquidity shortages and increasing credit U.S.
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