‘Opposition-Craft’: An Evaluative Framework for Official

Opposition Parties in the United Kingdom
Edward Henry Lack
Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of PhD

The University of Leeds, School of Politics and International
Studies

May, 2020

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Intellectual Property and Publications Statements

The candidate confirms that the work submitted is his own and that appropriate credit has been given where reference has been made to the work of others.

This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement.

©2020 The University of Leeds and Edward Henry Lack The right of Edward Henry Lack to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988

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Acknowledgements Page

I would like to thank Dr Victoria Honeyman and Dr Timothy Heppell of the School of Politics and International Studies, The University of Leeds, for their support and guidance in the production of this work.

I would also like to thank my partner, Dr Ben Ramm and my parents, David and Linden Lack, for their encouragement and belief in my efforts to undertake this project.

Finally, I would like to acknowledge those who took part in the research for this PhD thesis: Lord David Steel, Lord David Owen, Lord Chris Smith, Lord Andrew Adonis, Lord David Blunkett and Dame Caroline Spelman.

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Abstract

This thesis offers a distinctive and innovative framework for the study of effective official opposition politics in the United Kingdom. While other work has focused on narrow aspects of life in opposition – such as leadership, media communications, or policy – this work draws together the entire scope of skills into a framework, described as ‘OppositionCraft’, against which any official UK opposition can be tested for its effectiveness. Using Bulpitt’s 1986 paper on ‘Statecraft’ as its inspiration, this thesis compiles a similar set of key elements that an opposition must possess if it is to have any hope of victory at a general election. Bulpitt established a set of criteria around the key structural aspects of a good government which, if followed, would likely result in a governing party remaining in power. In that regard, ‘Statecraft’ focused on parties of government, whereas this new framework produces a similar set of criteria by which an opposition can be measured. Following the creation of the model in the opening chapter, subsequent chapters go on to test the framework against four distinct periods of opposition from 1980 onwards, each of which assesses a wide spectrum of electoral success: Michael Foot’s Labour Party, 1980-83, Neil

Kinnock’s Labour Party, 1987-92, Tony Blair’s Labour Party, 1994-97, and David Cameron’s

Conservative Party, 2005-10. By applying the model and forming judgements around their relative success, this project will evaluate why, during the post-war period, the Conservative Party has been more successful in opposition than the Labour Party. Thus,

‘Opposition-Craft’ is the first of its kind in that it presents a full exploration of all

dimensions involved in the technique of opposition. In that regard, if Bulpitt’s notion of

‘Statecraft’ is the art of successful government, then ‘Opposition-Craft’ is the art of

successful opposition.
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Table of Contents

Intellectual Property and Publications Statements ...................................................... 2 Acknowledgements Page............................................................................................ 3 Abstract ..................................................................................................................... 4 List of Tables, Diagrams and Illustrations.....................................................................7 Abbreviations............................................................................................................. 8

Chapter 1: ‘Opposition-Craft’: The Model ............................................................. 9

1.1 Section1: The rationale for the project .................................................................................11 1.2 Section 2: The existing literature...........................................................................................13 1.3 Section 3: Context .................................................................................................................20 1.4 Section 4: Strategy.................................................................................................................27 1.5 Section 5: Tasks .....................................................................................................................32 1.6 Section 6: Skills ......................................................................................................................38 1.7 The case for ‘Opposition-Craft’..............................................................................................49

Chapter 2........................................................................................................... 55

Tony Blair, 1994-97: A masterclass in how to operate in opposition........................... 55

2.1 Introduction...........................................................................................................................55 2.2 Academic Perspectives on the Blair Era, 1994-97 .................................................................55 2. 3 Context .................................................................................................................................58 2.4 Strategy .................................................................................................................................67 2.5 Tasks ......................................................................................................................................74 2.6 Skills.......................................................................................................................................80 2.7 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................89

Chapter 3........................................................................................................... 93

David Cameron, 2005-10: A stunning achievement or a failure to complete the job? .. 93

3.1 Introduction...........................................................................................................................93 3.2 Academic Perspectives on the Cameron Era, 2005-10..........................................................94

• 3.3
• Context ...........................................................................................................................96

3.4 Strategy ...............................................................................................................................111 3.5 Tasks ....................................................................................................................................120 3.6 Skills.....................................................................................................................................129 3.7 Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................140

Chapter 4......................................................................................................... 144

Neil Kinnock, 1987-92: On the right track, but outsmarted in the end ...................... 144

4.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................144 4.2 Academic Perspectives on the Kinnock Era, 1987-92..........................................................145 4.3 Context ................................................................................................................................147 4.4 Strategy ...............................................................................................................................157 4.5 Tasks ....................................................................................................................................170 4.6 Skills.....................................................................................................................................178 4.7 Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................192

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Chapter 5......................................................................................................... 195

Michael Foot, 1980-83: What not to do in opposition .............................................. 195

5.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................195 5.2 Academic Perspectives on the Foot Era, 1980-83 ...............................................................196 5.3 Context ................................................................................................................................198 5.4 Strategy ...............................................................................................................................206 5.5 Tasks ....................................................................................................................................213 5.6 Skills.....................................................................................................................................224 5.7 Conclusion ...........................................................................................................................232

Chapter 6: Conclusions..................................................................................... 235 Bibliography.................................................................................................... 248

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List of Tables, Diagrams and Illustrations

Figure 1: Model of ‘Opposition-Craft’: Context .....................................................................25 Figure 2: Left-Right locations of UK parties since 1945 .........................................................29 Figure 3: Model of 'Opposition-Craft': Strategy.....................................................................31 Figure 4: Model of 'Opposition-Craft': Tasks .........................................................................37 Figure 5: Most Capable Prime Minister* ...............................................................................42 Figure 6: Model of 'Opposition-Craft': Skills ..........................................................................46 Figure 7: The inverted relationship between aspects of the 'Opposition-Craft' Model........50 Figure 8: Evaluative Judgements ...........................................................................................51 Figure 9: Who would make the best Prime Minister? ...........................................................62 Figure 10: With Britain in economic difficulties, which party do you think could handle the problem best - the Conservative Party or the Labour Party?................................................62 Figure 11: Labour advertising campaign................................................................................71 Figure 12: YouGov voting intention polls...............................................................................97 Figure 13: Which of these would make the best Prime Minister? ......................................103 Figure 14: Who would make the best Prime Minister?.......................................................104 Figure 15: I am going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today. I would like you to tell me whether you think the Conservative party, the Labour party or the Liberal Democrats has the best policies on each problem. Base: c. 1,000-2,000 GB adults aged 18+: Managing the economy .......................................................................................................106 Figure 16: Conservative Party ideological positions ............................................................114 Figure 17: Dailies’ Endorsements by Circulation 1992-2010 ...............................................128 Figure 18: Who would make the best Prime Minister?.......................................................152 Figure 19: Who would make the best Prime Minister?.......................................................154 Figure 20: With Britain in economic difficulties, which party do you think could handle the problem best? The Conservatives under Mr Major or Labour under Mr Kinnock? ...........156

Figure 21: Voters’ Assessment of parties’ governing abilities.............................................162

Figure 22: The Best Party: Labour lead on caring issues......................................................182 Figure 23: Conservative campaign advertising posters .......................................................183 Figure 24: National newspaper circulation and party support............................................185 Figure 25: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister? ...199 Figure 26: Who would make the best Prime Minister?.......................................................200 Figure 27: How do you think the financial situation of your household will change over the next twelve months? ...........................................................................................................202 Figure 28: Media coverage of Michael Foot ........................................................................232 Figure 29: Major passages of opposition.............................................................................237

Figure 30: Labour’s difficulties around leadership up to 2017 ............................................242

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Abbreviations

• AES
• Alternative Economic Strategy

British Broadcasting Company Corporation Conservative Central Head Quarters Clause Five Group
BBC CCHQ CFG CLP CND EC
Constituency Labour Party Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament European Community
EEC ERM EU
European Economic Community Exchange Rate Mechanism European Union
FPTP HQ
First past the post (electoral system) Head Quarters

• MP
• Member of Parliament

NATO NEC NI
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation National Executive Committee National Insurance
OMOV PLP
One Member One Vote Parliamentary Labour Party

• Prime Minister
• PM

PMQ SDP UK

Prime Minister’s Questions

Social Democratic Party United Kingdom

• US
• United States

• VAT
• Value Added Tax

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Chapter 1: ‘Opposition-Craft’: The Model

Leading a party which has lost office and is seeking to regain it is no easy

task (Bale, 2015, p.58)

Winning a general election is a tough assignment for any political party; winning one from the vantage point of an official opposition is an even tougher challenge. Success at a UK general election is the ultimate goal for any party seeking to govern the country, so it is unsurprising that a considerable amount of research has been undertaken into the strategies used to win elections. The first chapter of this thesis will extend the existing research into electoral success and will propose a model of behaviour and conditions necessary for an official opposition to win a UK general election. In later chapters we will then apply this model to a number periods of opposition in UK politics in order to analyse the success or otherwise of that party. At its core, this thesis will ask: what factors shape a