THE BRITISH GENERAL ELECTION OF 1992 Other books in this series
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David Butler Fellow ofNuffield College, Oxford
Dennis Kavanagh Professor of Politics, University of Nottingham
M St. Martin's Press ©David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh 1992
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Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First published 1992 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world ISBN 978-0-333-56903-0 ISBN 978-0-230-37209-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230372092
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Copy-edited and typeset by Grahame & Grahame Editorial, Brighton
First published in the United States of America 1992 by Scholarly and Reference Division, ST. MARTIN'S PRESS INC., 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010
ISBN 978-0-312-08666-4 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Butler, David, 1924- The British General Election of 1992 I David Butler, Dennis Kavanagh. p. em. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-312-08666-4 1. Great Britain. Parliament-Elections, 1992. 2. Elections• Great Britain. 3. Great Britain-Politics and govemment-1979- 1. Kavanagh, Dennis. II. Title. JN956.B868 1992 324.941'0859--dc20 92-27877 CIP Contents
List 0/ T ables vi List 0/ Illustrations viii List 0/ Plates ix Pre/ace xi
A Changed Scene: 1987-1992 2 Conservatives: Thatcher to Major 23 3 Labour: Seeking Electability 43 4 Liberal Democrats and Peripheral Politics 67
5 The Near Term Campaign: Winter 1991-92 77
6 The Deceptive Battle: March-April 1992 100
7 The Waterloo of the PolIs 135
8 Politics on the Air Martin Harrison 155
9 A Tabloid War Martin Harrop and Margaret Scammell 180
10 MPs and Candidates Byron Criddle 211 11 The Local Battle 231 12 Retrospect: Mistakes and Triumphs 247 13 A Critical Election? 269 Appendix 1: The Voting Statistics 284
Appendix 2: The Results Analysed lohn Curtice and Michael Steed 322
Select Bibliography 363 Index 369
v List of Tables
1.1 Economic indicators 2-3 2.1 Govemment and leader ratings, 1987-92 31 5.1 Expectations of a Labour govemment 1ed by Neil Kinnock 96 5.2 Comparative expectations of the parties in govemment 98 6.1 Main daily campaign themes 104-5 6.2 IG futures index 119 7.1 Campaign polIs 136 7.2 Scottish polIs 139 7.3 Final polIs 140 7.4 Time of decision 144 7.5 Possible components of poIl errors 145 7.6 Exit poIl predictions 146 8.1 Election leads in main evening news programmes 160-1 8.2 Relative prominence of issues in news coverage 163 8.3 Politicians quoted in radio and television news 169 8.4 Party shares of news coverage 171 9.1 Partisanship and circulation of national daily newspapers 181-2 9.2 Profile of press content 183 9.3 Coverage of major political parties in front-page stories and editorials 188 9.4 Party supported by daily newspaper readers 190 9.5 Photographs of leading party politicians in national dailies 191 9.6 Partisanship and circulation of national Sunday newspapers 192 9.7 Front-page lead stories 194-5 9.8 Editorials about the General Election, by topic 199 9.9 Front-page lead stories about the General Election, by topic 201 9.10 Political advertising in national daily and Sunday newspapers 205 10.1 Age of candidates 221 10.2 Parliamentary experience of MPs 222 10.3 Education of candidates 224
vi List 0/ Tables vii
10.4 Occupation of candidates 226 10.5 Sponsored Labour candidates 227 11.1 Photographs of party leaders on election addresses 237 11.2 Public impact of campaign 242 11.3 Time of voting 243 11.4 Total amount spent by candidates 245 12.1 The key issues 268 13.1 How Britain voted in 1992 277
A1.1 Votes and seats, 1945-92 284-5 A1.2 Regional results, 1992 286-7 A1.3 Constituency results in Great Britain, 1992 288-312 A1.4 Northern Ireland constituency results, 1992 313 A1.5 Outstanding results, 1992 315 A1.6 By-election results, 1987-92 319
A2.1 Measures of change since 1987 323 A2.2 Regional variation in incomes and newspaper readership 326 A2.3 Regression equations of party performance 327 A2.4 The south-eastern triangle 329 A2.5 The influence of the tactical situation 332 A2.6 The pattern of voting in Con/Lab seats 333 A2.7 Tactical voting in the South 335 A2.8 The concentration of the non-Conservative vote 336 A2.9 Change in turnout by region and urban-rural type 346 A2.1O Electoral bias at recent elections 350 A2.11 The relationship between seats and votes 351 A2.12 The impact of the Boundary Review? 352 A2.13 Two perspectives on the UK result 353 A2.14 The chan ging distribution of Liberal Democrat and SNP support 354 List of Illustrations
FIGURES 1.1 Economic indicators, 1987-92 11 1.2 Opinion poIl trends, 1987-92 14 7.1 Opinion poIl trends during the campaign 137
MAPS 13.l Seats changing hands 270 13.2 Liberal Democrat victories and near misses 271 13.3 Regional swing 272 13.4 Regional Conservative strength 273
PARTY ADVERTISEMENTS Conservative advertisements 112 Labour advertisements 113
NEWSPAPER HEADLINES Headlines, 9 April 1992 132 Headlines, 10 April 1992 133 Tabloid front pages, 8 April 1992 187
CARTOONS 'Begone! I'm not the father!' 18 'D' you think Labour has come clean ... ?' 111 Jennifer's ear 121 April 1st 125 The Key to Number 10 127 Proportional Representation 129 'Bring Out Your Dead' 238 The Result 250
viii List of Plates
Chris Patten and David Mellor, 21 January 1992 (Tony Andrews, Financial Times) 2 (left) John Major 'Meet the People' in his constituency, 15 March 1992 (Ashley Ashwood, Financial Times) 3 (below) John Major, Chris Patten, Michael Heseltine, Douglas Hurd, Norrnan Lamont: Manifesto launch, 18 March 1992 (Tony Andrews, Financial Times) 4 (left) Chris Patten and Michael Heseltine: Press Conference, 23 March 1992 (Financial Times) 5 (right) John Major, Chris Patten, Margaret Thatcher, Candidates' Meeting, 22 March 1992 (Independent) 6 (below) John Major at Luton, 28 March 1992 (Independent) 7 (above) Gerald Kaufman, John Smith, Jack Straw, Neil Kinnock, Margaret Beckett, John Cunningham: Labour Press Conference (Financial Times) 8 (above) Neil Kinnock at the Sheffield Rally (David Kampjner) 9 (right) Roy Hattersley: 'Labour has won the Election', Sheffield Rally, 1 April 1992 (David Kampjner) 10 Norrnan Lamont as Vatman, John Smith, Margaret Beckett, John Cunningham, 28 January 1992 11 (left) Neil Kinnock at Southampton, 3 April 1992 (Sean Smith, Guardian) 12 (right) Launching 'Made in Britain', Gordon Brown and John Smith, 8 January 1992 (Martin Argles, Guardian) 13 Des Wilson, Paddy Ashdown, Graham Elson, outside the Liberal Democrat Headquarters, 11 March 1992 14 (left) Des Wilson and Paddy Ashdown, Press Conference, 24 March 1992 (Financial Times) 15 (below) 'Vote Tactical', Oxford, March 1992 (Peter Hamilton) 16 (above) Charles Kennedy in Dingwall Town Hall, 25 March 1992 (Don McPhee) 17 (right) Dave Nellist in Coventry, 23 March 1992 (lohn Snowdon, Guardian)
ix x List 0/ Plates
18 The Scottish National Party, 1 April 1992 (Scotsman Publications) Election Night 19 (above) Smith Square: Chris Patten, Norma Major, John Major, Sir John Lacy, Douglas Hurd, Election Night, 1992: Conservative 20 (left) Walworth Road: Neil Kinnock, Glenys Kinnock, Bryan Gould, Election Night, 1992: Labour 21 (bottom left) Declaration of Austin Mitchell's election at Great Grimsby 22 Peter Snow, BBC, at the Swingometer, Election Night, 1992 23 Julia Sommerville, Alastair Stewart, Jon Snow: ITN Election Night, 9-10 April 1992 (lohn Curtis) Preface
This is the fourteenth Nuffield College study of a British General Election and is the sixth study written jointly by the present authors. It necessarily follows in the mould of its predecessors, since the series is designed to make possible comparison of one election with another. However, the 1992 election was unique in many ways, raising new and difficult problems about long-term trends in party support and about the impact of modem electioneering and opinion polIs, both before and during the final three weeks. British parties have increasingly come to believe that it is 'the long campaign' in the months preceding the dissolution of Parliament that actually decides the outcome. We have therefore covered in more detail than ever before the pre-campaign preparations of the two main parties. The long campaign is now an established part of British elections and parties are sure to leam the lessons of 1992. Opinion poIls coloured the coverage and the conduct of the 1992 Campaign to an exceptional degree and their failure to foreshadow the Conservative lead recorded on April 9 has left an enduring mark on the political scene. The breakdown of a measuring instrument that seemed to work so well in previous contests leaves achallenge both to pollsters and to commentators that will not be quickly met. In our efforts to describe and explain the election, we have once again been greatly helped by intellectual and practical support from our colleagues in Nuffield College and Nottingham University and by financial support from the Economic and Social Research Council. We owe a great deal to the politicians, party officials and advisers who have so generously given of their time in some hundreds of interviews during the last few years and to the many candidates who replied to our post-election questionnaire. Any authority that these pages may have is due in large measure to the access and the insights the participants have allowed uso We are deeply grateful to them. We have made inordinate demands on the research skills of Roger Mortimore and the secretarial skills of Audrey Skeats and April Pidgeon. We must also thank, among the readers of our manuscript, Lewis Baston, Vemon Bogdanor, Simon Henig and Peter Morris, and we must pay due tribute to our long-suffering wives and families.
DAVID BUTLER 10 July 1992 DENNIS KA VANAGH
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