#10 (104) October 2016 Mainstream and opposition Ministers of finance and Ukrainian Muslims political forces, their ambitions agriculture on taxes and land in the war WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM Featuring selected content from The Economist FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION CONTENTS | 3 BRIEFING 32 Referendums on responsibility: 4 Storm clouds ahead for allies: Michael Binyon on alternatives to Who is vying for leadership in the direct diplomacy and accountability Poroshenko Bloc and People’s Front of politicians POLITICS 34 A tale of two ethics: Why many 7 In a narrow niche: The ambitions and Germans think impractical idealism prospects for opposition in Ukraine is immoral 8 New Donetskites: A shift 35 Three-hit wonder: A co-founder of of generations in the electoral field Twitter is betting he can revolutionise of the former Party of Regions clans digital publishing once again FPCUS 36 Split platform: How the Polish opposition is coping with defeat 10 Rent seeking on land: What changes and disillusioned voters Ukraine’s land market needs 38 Political music for four hands: 13 Taras Kutoviy: “The state can be Who and what shapes the agenda a proper owner only of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice in exceptional cases” Minister of Agricultural Policy and SOCIETY Food on problems in the agricultural 41 Heorhiy Tuka: sector, the lobby of landholders and "Local elections in Donetsk and the land market Luhansk oblasts were untimely” 16 Locomotive in action: What are the Deputy Minister of the Temporarily prospects for Ukraine’s agro-industrial Occupied Territories and IDPs on complex? social benefits, smuggling across the contact line and blockade ECONOMICS 44 Alan Aeschlimann: 18 The fifth column’s new front: Why “We hope that a commission for those who push for renewal of the missing persons will be created economic ties with Russia for Ukraine in Ukraine” are wrong Head of the International Committee 22 Speculations on the state budget: of the Red Cross mission Interesting details about Ukraine’s to Ukraine on the search budget for 2017 for the missing people and 27 Oleksandr Danylyuk: "If people pay cooperation with authorities taxes, the state will reduce rates 46 For Allah and country: where possible” How various Muslim communities The Minister of Finance on tax reform perceive the war in the Donbas and campaign against shadow economy, corruption CULTURE & ARTS 50 Urban jazz, contemporary art NEIGHBOURS and Ukraine’s new brands: 29 Selling air: What undermines the The Ukrainian Week offers a selection Lukashenka regime in Belarus of events to enjoy this month E-mail [email protected] www.ukrainianweek.com Tel. (044) 351-13-00 The Ukrainian Week #10 (104) Oktober 2016 Editors address 37 Mashynobudivna str., Kyiv, 03067, Ukraine Founder ECEM Media GmbH. Publisher ECEM Media GmbH Print run 15 000. Free distribution Address Austria, Am Gestade,1, 1010 Vienna Our partner State registration certificate КВ № 19823-9623ПР 19.03.2013 Chief Editor Dmytro Krapyvenko Editors Anna Korbut, Lidia Wolanskyj #10 (104) Oktober 2016 | THE UKRAINIAN WEEK 4 | BRIEFING | THE UKRAINIAN WEEK | #10 (104) Oktober 2016 ???????????? | BRIEFING | 5 BRIEFING Storm clouds ahead for allies Bohdan Butkevych he low poll numbers of the current ruling duumvirate and the rather uncertain politi- cal backdrop have provoked a surge of ambition in their members. It is as yet con- cealed, but no less strong despite that. The Ukrainian Week looks at what the cur- Trent party allies could transform into and which social forces they can rely on. If we look at the Petro Poroshenko Bloc (PPB) in terms of the business circles that support it, the first thing that comes to mind is large Ukrainian monopolies, especially in agriculture, light industry, food processing, machine building and property development. There is no doubt that the owners of these businesses, including Yuriy Kosiuk, Oleksiy Vadaturskyi, Roman Matsola and Lev Partskhaladze, among others, will be right behind current President Petro Poroshenko until the bitter end. Mentally he originates from the same surroundings of more or less pro- Ukrainian business that gained its power less through its owners' outstanding managerial abili- UNIAN PHOTO ties than their proximity to government and almost unlimited access to the state budget. #10 (104) Oktober 2016 | THE UKRAINIAN WEEK 6 | BRIEFING | This business will need political "protection" under deserves this or not is another matter) for all the nega- any circumstances. If the PPB starts to lose its footing, tive reactions to the economic decline of the past two there is no doubt that their ambition and rudimentary years. The party he leads, People’s Front, has plum- desire to survive in their respective industries will be meted in terms of public support and did not even run sufficient for a new political project. Or a change in the in the latest local elections. Yatseniuk retired into the leadership of one that already exists. There is no doubt shadow after his resignation for six months, but made that Premier Volodymyr Hroisman has considerable a bright and emotional comeback with a speech this political ambitions that go beyond being his current September at the Victor Pinchuk-sponsored YES forum premiership on a short leash. If such an opportunity which moved to Kyiv after the annexation of Crimea. He arises, he will do everything in his power to become the certainly does not see his current status of merely head leader of a party. Either in the form of the PPB or any of the People’s Front as a normalcy for himself. And new party to replace it. he will definitely attempt to storm the power Olympus Another politician to look at is Yuriy Lutsenko, who once again. Therefore, his Yalta speech is yet another now as Prosecutor General seems to have been given reminder of his political ambitions that have not faded. carte blanche to lock up corrupt officials – especially Whether his political ambitions will be realized hand in those who are unable to come to an arrangement with hand with the People’s Front is an open question. So is him – and who must have drawn the appropriate con- the future funding for the project. By and large, apart clusions from his disastrous spell as Interior Minister from its long-time heavyweights Mykola Martynenko under President Viktor Yushchenko. In addition, he has and Andriy Ivanchuk, there are no significant national- truly become both intellectually and emotionally stron- level businessmen in what can be treated as the patriot- ger following his two-years in prison. Needless to say, he ic-Euro-Atlantic party in the PF. Therefore, the party’s dreams of being selected by Poroshenko as a successor. resources directly rely on the proximity to power. Since Ukraine is nothing like Russia, a direct trans- The influence of Oleksandr Turchynov who was, for fer of power is obviously out of the question. It would a few months in 2014, Acting President, has plummeted rather be the case that President Poroshenko officially as well. Contrary to Yatseniuk’s case, however, Turchyn- endorses Lutsenko’s candidacy. For example, after his ov’s loss of image has not been so dramatic. Moreover, own probable second term in office. Or even instead of he has gained the reputation of a decisive political with himself, if the political situation in 2020 is completely strong willpower. Ever since Turchynov acted as Presi- unfavourable for him. A closer look at the current power dent in the role of the Verkhovna Rada Speaker right af- structure makes one assume that Yuriy Lutsenko is the ter the Maidan, his closet has become far more crowded with skeletons: the loss of Crimea, the start of war in the Donbas. Still, Turchynov has significant political THE LOW POLL NUMBERS OF THE CURRENT RULING capital. His current position as Head of the National Se- DUUMVIRATE AND THE UNCERTAIN POLITICAL curity and Defence Council is probably not enough to fit his power ambitions. Moreover, Turchynov has spent BACKDROP HAVE PROVOKED A SURGE OF AMBITION IN most of his political career in secondary roles at Yulia THEIR MEMBERS. IT IS AS YET CONCEALED, BUT NO Tymoshenko’s Batkivshchyna. Therefore, it only makes LESS STRONG DESPITE THAT sense to expect that he could start a political game of his own. However, Turchynov's plans remain a mystery – all claims that this politician would like to take over only man capable of – if the situation so requires – may- Arsen Avakov's role as Interior Minister following a re- be not competing with, but at least replacing Porosh- shuffle were met with a categorical, although not very fi- enko in some way. The bottom line is that he clearly has ery, denial. After all, Turchynov is truly in an interesting such plans, although he is careful to refute these ambi- situation: either de facto or de jure, he has managed to tions in interviews. As shown by the example of Porosh- hold all of the highest positions in the country. It would enko himself, who never spoke about his political plans seem that all the peaks have already been conquered. either, such behaviour is the most effective. Those who However, there is no doubt that his job in the National shout about their political dreams rarely fulfil them, as Security and Defence Council is not forever. all their opponents know in advance how to counteract Speaking of concealed political ambitions in this them and who to attack. faction, we must mention the People Front’s Andriy Currently, no figures of equal ranking to the afore- Parubiy first of all. He already holds one of the highest mentioned are in evidence in the political or business posts in the state hierarchy – Speaker of the Verkhovna stables.