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Warlords in the International Order: a Neorealist Approach

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Warlords in the International Order: a Neorealist Approach Warlords in the International Order: A Neorealist Approach Anthony John Vinci The London School of Economics and Political Science This thesis is submitted towards the attainment of the degree of PhD in International Relations. 1 UMI Number: U615517 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U615517 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 TABLE OF CONTENTS • Abstract, 4 • Preface ,5 • List of Acronyms 6 Part I: Introduction and Definitions 1.) Introduction .9 • Warlords • Approaches to Analysis • Theoretical Approach • Argument Outline • Testing the Validity of the Approach: Case Studies • Note on Methodology 2.) Definition and Conceptualization of Warlord.................................49 • Context • Contemporary Definitions • Conceptualizing Warlords and Warlord Organizations • Comparisons with other Actors Part II; Theory 3.) Warlords and Neorealism...................................................... 109 • Groups • Motivations • Anarchy 4.) Warlord International Relations.....................................................167 • Overview of Neorealism • Internal Power Cultivation • Alliances • Security Dilemma • War 2 Part III: Case Studies 5.) Case Study: Somali Warlords..........................................................217 • History and Context • Somali Armed Groups • Warlords and the UN Intervention • Ethiopia, the SNF, and A1 Ittihad 6.) Case Study: The Lord’s Resistance Army..................................... 278 • History and Context • The LRA as Warlord O rganiza tion • LRA Relations with Uganda, Sudan, and the SPLM/A Part IV: Conclusion. Appendixes and Bibliography 7.) Conclusion..........................................................................................326 • Warlords and International Relations • Armed Groups and International Relations • International Relations Theory • Policy Implications Appendix A .- Somali Memorandum of Understanding...................348 Appendix B .- Analysis of the SPLM/A.............................................. 350 Appendix C .- OLS Ground Rules Agreement.................................. 369 Bibliography • Books, Chapters, and Journal Articles...................................377 • Gove rnment, NGO, IGO, and Research Institute Reports and Documents.......................................................................... .418 • News Articles..............................................................................423 • Interviews................................................................................... .426 Thesis Length.......................................................................................... 433 3 ABSTRACT Armed groups are becoming increasingly significant international actors. International Relations as a discipline must analyze and integrate these actors if it is to effectively explain international politics. This thesis begins this process through examining the international relations of warlords. Specifically, this thesis asks: how do warlords relate with states and other international actors? The thesis moves away from the greed-grievance debate, instead a Neorealist approach is used to analyze the relations of warlords. The conclusion reached is that warlords relate with states and other international actors in essentially the same way as states - they seek to ensure their survival through the balance of power. Specifically, they relate in terms of internal power cultivation, alliances, and war. The argument for this conclusion begins with a conceptual analysis of warlords, in which it is determined that warlords are non-state actors that use military power and economic exploitation to maintain fiefdoms which are autonomous and independent from the state and society. It is then demonstrated that the traditionally state -centric Neorealist approach can be used to analyze warlords, by arguing that warlords can be seen as empirically sovereign, ‘functionally undifferentiated’, Tike units’, which are motivated by survival, and exist in an anarchic system. Neorealist theory and its notions of self help, internal power cultivation, alliances, security dilemma, and war are examined and it is demonstrated how these concepts describe and explain warbrd international relations. The validity of using the Neorealist approach is tested throughout the thesis in vignette case studies on warlords including the National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPLF), the Revolutionary United Front (RUF), and Afghan warlords as well as in two major case studies on Somali warlord relations with the UN and Ethiopia and the Lord’s Resistance Army’s (LRA) relations with Uganda, Sudan, and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A). 4 PREFACE I would like to thank the many people who have helped me in the writing of this thesis. In particular, I owe a debt of gratitude to my PhD supervisor Christopher Coker who has advised me and provided valuable insights throughout the entire process. I am also immensely grateful to those who provided me with extensive comments and editing help in writing the thesis, including Matthew Arnold, Lisa Aronsson, Rune Henriksen, Jennifer Rumbach, Hannah Vaughan-Lee, and Marco Vieira. I would also like to thank those people who have provided me with helpful advice on my work, including Chris Alden, Philippa Atkinson, Mark Bradbury, Dominque Jacquin-Berdal, Alexandra Dias, John Kent, Matthew LeRichie, Lisa Magloff, Monika Thakur, Becky Tinsley. Other people I would like to thank are Paul Kalenzi and his family, Tony Odiya, Samuel, Laura, Chris and the many others who helped me with my research in Africa; as well as my friends who helped in their own way during the writing process, including Dave, Jeremy, Lyndon, Mark, Radwan, Tobias, and Tony. My gratitude also goes out to the LSE International Relations Department and the University of London Central Research Fund for providing me with funds for my research. Finally, I owe the most thanks to my family, and especially my parents, without whom I could not have done any of this. 5 LIST OF ACRONYMS ADF - Allied Democratic Forces ANC - African National Congress C3 - Command, Control, and Communication DRC - Democratic Republic of Congo ECOMOG - ECOWAS Monitoring Group ECOWAS - Economic Community of West African States EPLF - Eritrean People’s Liberation Front FARC - Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia GoS - Government of Sudan HSM - Holy Spirit Movement ICBM - Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IGAD - Inter-Governmental Authority on Development IGO - Intergovernmental Organization IMF - International Monetary Fund IPE - International Political Economy IR - International Relations IRA - Irish Republican Army LRA - Lord’s Resistance Army MNC - Multi-National Corporation MOU - Memorandum of Understanding MPLA - Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO - Nongovernmental Organization NPFL - National Patriotic Front of Liberia NRA - National Resistance Army NRM - National Resistance Movement NSA - N on-State Actor NSC - National Salvation Council O LF- Oromo Liberation Front O LS- Operation Lifeline Sudan OODA- Observe-Orientate-Decide-Act PLO - Palestinian Liberation Organization 6 PMC - Private Military Company RENAMO- Mozambiquan National Resistance R PG - Rocket Propelled Grenades RRA - Rahanwein Resistance Army RUF - Revolutionary United Front SAG - Sovereign Armed Group SNA - Somali National Alliance SNF - Somali National Front SNM - Somali National Movement SNSA- Sovereign Non-State Actor SPLA- Sudanese People’s Liberation Army SPLM - Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement SPLM/A - Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army SRRC - Somalia Reconciliation and Restoration Council SSDF - Somali Salvation Democratic Front TFR- Task Force Ranger TNG - Transitional National Government UN - United Nations UNDOS - United Nations Development Office for Somalia UNICEF - United Nations Children’s Fund UNDP - United Nations Development Programme UNIT A- National Union for Total Independence of Angola UNITAF - UN International Task Force UNOSOM - United Nations Operation in Somalia UPDA - Uganda People’s Democratic Army UPDF - Ugandan People’s Defense Force US - United States U SC - United Somali Congress USC/PM - United Somali Congress/Peace Movement WSLF - Western Somali Liberation Front 7 “Another infirmity of a Commonwealth is the immoderate greatness of a town, when it is able to furnish out of its own circuit the number and expense of a great army; as also the great number of corporations, which are as it were many lesser Commonwealths in the bowels of a greater, like worms in the entrails of a natural man.” - Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan, Chapter XXIX 8 CHAPTER 1- INTRODUCTION Armed groups - non-state organizations that have the capacity for systematic military action - are becoming increasingly significant actors in international relations.1 For most of the Cold War armed groups were typically local or mainly involved internationally via another state.
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