Among Republicans Nationally: Dole Slips but Still Front Runner Buchanan Clear #2 and Rising

Home , Lamar Alexander, Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes

The arris Poll

THE HARRIS POLL 1996 #I4 For Release: Saturday, March 2, 1996

AMONG REPUBLICANS NATIONALLY: DOLE SLIPS BUT STILL FRONT RUNNER BUCHANAN CLEAR #2 AND RISING

Among All Adults: Clinton leads Dole by 1 1 points, leads Buchanan by 21 points and Alexander by 24 points.

by Humphrey Taylor

A new nationwide Harris Poll, mostly conducted after the last round of Republican primary elections, shows that Bob Dole is still the clear front-runner for the Republican nomination but that his lead has fallen sharply since late January. Patrick Buchanan has jumped into second place far ahead of Steve Forbes and Lamar Alexander.

When the Republican candidates go head to head with President Clinton he beats them all handily, but his margin over Senator Dole is a relatively modest eleven points as compared to a 21-point margin over Pat Buchanan and a 24-point margin over Lamar Alexander.

These are the results of a new Harris Poll of 1,005 adults surveyed between February 22 and February 29. However, more than eighty percent of the interviews were actually conducted on February 27th, 28th and 29th, after the most recent primaries in Delaware, Arizona, North and South Dakota.

One of the many characteristics of this year's election season is the extreme volatility of support for different candidates. This is likely to continue. Today's primary in South Carolina and next week's primaries in Colorado, Georgia, Maryland, and

Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. 111 Fifth Avenue NYC (212) 539-9600 Vermont will produce more winners and losers which will add momentum to some candidates and hurt others. .& Some of the key results of this new Harris Poll are:

Bob Dole is the first choice of 38% of Republicans, compared to 46% in late January. He is down eight points.

When independent voters are included -- and in many states, independents can vote in the primaries -- Bob Dole is the first choice of 32%, down from 41 % in January.

Pat Buchanan is the first choice of 22% of Republicans and of 21% of Republicans and independents combined.

Steve Forbes and Lamar Alexander are tied for third place with 10% of Republicans each. When independents are included, Forbes wins 14% and Alexander 11% of their support.

In head-to-head "horse race" pairings for the presidential election, Bob Dole does better than Buchanan or Alexander.

However, Clinton leads Dole by eleven points, he leads Buchanan by twenty-one points and Alexander by twenty-four. 4 One indication of the Republican problem, as they continue to slug it out in the primaries, is that currently many Republican voters -- and many more independents -- would not support the Republican candidates in a race wi,th the president. However, that is only the picture now and has little real meaning for the election in November. Much will happen to move opinions between now and then.

At this time it is really not possible to say how strong or weak the eventual Republican nominee will be after he has fought his way to the winning line. However bloody the battle, victory sometimes has a way of making victors look pretty good.

Humphrey Taylor is the Chairman and CEO of Louis Harris and Associates, Inc. TABLE 1

FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLICAN NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT

Base: Republicans and Independents

"Who's your first choice for the Republican presidential nomination in 1996?"

91996 February April July December January 22-29 Yo yo yo Yo

Bob Dole Phil Gramm Pat Buchanan Steve Forbes Lamar Alexander Dick Lugar Alan Keyes Not sure

TABLE 2

FIRST CHOICE AMONG REPUBLICANS ONLY

Base: Republicans

"Who's your first choice for the Republican presidential nomination in 1996?"

January February 22-29 O/o Yo

Bob Dole Phil Gramm Pat Buchanan Steve Forbes Lamar Alexander Dick Lugar Alan Keyes Not sure TABLE 3

CLINTON AND DOLE

"If the next presidential election were held today and you had to choose between Bill Clinton, the Democratic candidate and Bob Dole, the Republican candidate, who would you vote for, or would you probably not vote?"

1995 1996 February September October December January 22-29 Yo Yo % % Yo

Bill Clinton Bob Dole Would probably not vote Someone else (vol.) Not sure

Difference

TABLE 4

CLINTON VS. DOLE BY PARTY

"If the next presidential election were held today and you had to choose between Bill Clinton, the d Democratic candidate and Bob Dole, the Republican candidate, who would you vote for, or would you probably not vote?" c Inde- Total Republican Democrat pendent Yo Yo Yo %

Bill Clinton Bob Dole Would probably not vote Someone else (vol.) Not sure

Difference TABLE 5

CLINTON VS. BUCHANAN

"If the next presidential election were held today and you had to choose between Bill Clinton, the Democratic candidate and Pat Buchanan, the Republican candidate, who would you vote for, or would you probably not vote?"

CONSIDER SELF Inde- Total Republican Democrat pendent Yo yo Yo %

Bill Clinton Pat Buchanan Would probably not vote Someone else (vol.) Not sure

Difference

TABLE 6

CLINTON VS. ALEXANDER w "If the next presidential election were held today and you had to choose between Bill Clinton, the Democratic candidate and Lamar Alexander, the Republican candidate, who would you vote for, or would you probably not vote?"

Inde- Total Republican Democrat pendent Yo Yo Yo Yo

Bill Clinton Lamar Alexander Would probably not vote Someone else (vol.) Not sure

Difference This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between February 22 and 29, among a nationwide cross section of 1,005 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education and number of adults in household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled wiZh complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error.-They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of National Council on Public Polls.

Contact Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., Information Services, 111 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10003, (212) 539-9697, for complete demographic details for the questions in this release.

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