The Race for the Republican Nomination Bob Dole Still

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THE HARRIS POLL 1996 #6 I For Release: Monday, January 29, 1996

THE RACE FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION

BOB DOLE STILL FAR AHEAD AS STEVE FORBES LEADS 'THE REST OF THE PACK

by Humphrey Taylor

Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole is still far ahead of the field as the first primary elections for the Republican nomination come closer. In a national poll of Republicans L and Independent voters, Dole wins 41% of the vote, with Steve Forbes a distant but clear second at 16%. Among Republicans alone, Senator Dole does even better, winniug 46% of ,their support, with Forbes receiving 13Ol0.

These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 598 Republicans and Independents surveyed between January 18 and January 22, 1996.

The emergence of Steve Forbes as the principal challenger to Bob Dole has sharply reduced the likelihood that any other candidate can present a serious challenge in this race. Pat Buchanan (now at 1 I%), Phil Gramm (at 8%) and Lamar Alexander (at 4%) are the big losers from the Forbes candidacy.

Forbes seems to be the beneficiary of several factors. He has shown that heavy advertising can work wonders. He is a fresh face, and a non-politician when experienced politicians are widely held in poor regard. His flat tax proposal is appealing to some people because of its simplicity, and because it sounds like a tax- cut.

Humphrey Taylor is the Chairman and CEO of Louis Harris and Associates, lnc.

Louis Harris & Associates, Inc. 11 1 Fifth Avenue, NYC (21 2) 539-9600 TABLE 1

FAMILIARITY WITH NINE POSSIBLE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT

Base: Republican or Independent 4' "I'm going to read you some names of potential Republican presidential candidates. Are you familiar with (READ LIST), or not?"

1995 1996 April July October December January Yo Yo Yo Yo Yo Those familiar with: Bob Dole Pat Buchanan Phil Gramm Steve Forbes N/A N/A 44' 3 7 52 Lamar Alexander 2 3 24 2 3 3 1 3 3 Robert Dornan Dick Lugar Alan Keyes

Asked as "Malcolm Steve Forbes" in the late October Survey

TABLE 2

FIRST CHOICE FOR REPUBLIC NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT

Base: Republicans and Independents

"Who's your first choice for the Republican presidential nomination in 1996?"

1995 1996 April July October December January Yo % Yo Yo Yo

Bob Dole 47 Phil Gramm 9 Pat Buchanan 5 Steve Forbes NIA Lamar Alexander 2 Dick Lugar 1 Alan Keyes NIA Robert Dornan 1 Not sure 25

'Less than .5% TABLE 3

REPUBLICAN FIRST CHOICE AMONG REPUBLICANS

January 18-22 Yo

Bob Dole Phil Gramm Pat Buchanan Steve Forbes Lamar Alexander Dick Lugar Alan Keyes Robert Dornan Not sure METHODOLOGY

This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between January 18 and 22, among a nationwide cross section of 598 adults. Figures for age, sex, race, education and number of adults in household were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a staZistical precision of plus or minus 4 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is difficult or impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of National Council on Public Polls.

Contact Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., Information Services, 111 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10003, (21 2) 539-9697, for complete demographic details for the questions in this release.

Compuserve address: 76702,2063 Other E-mail: [email protected]