Why do large-scale land protests in China succeed or fail? By © Yongfeng Tang MA Thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Department of Political Science Memorial University of Newfoundland March 2020 St. John’s Newfoundland and Labrador Abstract Land protests account for a large portion of all protests in China, but existing scholarship on this topic does not explain under which conditions large-scale land protests succeed or fail. This thesis will attempt to answer this question by focusing on five large-scale land protests that happened in China from 2012 to 2017. I argue that large-scale land protests are more likely to succeed under three conditions: when 1) domestic media reports on this protest are supportive or on the protesters’ side; 2) the protests are violent, and 3) the protests occur in the early stages of a developmental project. Those conditions do not work in isolation, but they coincide with protest success in those five cases that I investigated in this research. Using media analysis and doing a one-and-a-half-month-long period of fieldwork in China, I found that domestic media in China played two roles in determining the outcome of a protest: a “catalyst” role or a “watchdog” role. I also distinguished between short-term outcomes and long-term outcomes and found that the success of a short-term outcome will not necessarily guarantee the long-term outcome of a protest. Thirdly, I found that not only does the level of violence of the protest matter, but also which side used violence first affects the outcome of a large-scale land protest. This research contributed to the literature on contentious politics in China by highlighting under what conditions do large-scale land protests in China tend to succeed in the Xi Jinping era. ii Acknowledgment After finishing this almost two-year-long thesis, I feel grateful for the many people who have helped me during this process. Without their support and help, it would have been impossible for me to write on this challenging topic. Thank you to my supervisor, Isabel Côté, who provided thorough and insightful feedback on every stage of this project: from the proposal to the ethical review, to doing fieldwork in China, to writing on each chapter. Your rich knowledge and experience guided me during this whole process. You were always there whenever I needed advice or suggestions while writing this thesis or applying for Ph.D. programs. At Memorial University, I met some of the most fantastic professors in Canada and incredibly inspiring colleagues. Professor Bittner, thank you for leading me to the field of Political Science. My thanks and gratitude also go to Professor Williams, Professor Martin, Professor Tomblin, and Professor Basta for the help, support, and encouragement they gave to me during my studies at Memorial University. I want to thank the Department of Political Science for providing part of the funding for my fieldwork in China. I also want to thank Juanita and Audrey for their excellent work on providing auxiliary assistance in the Department of Political Science. For my cohort, I want to thank Jose, John, Megan, Michelle, and Rachel for their company and friendship, which made St. John’s a much less lonely place to live. I am incredibly grateful to the over 30 people who talked with me on such a sensitive topic and shared their insights and knowledge with me, even though they knew I could not help them with their predicament in their lives. I could not mention their names for their own safety, but I will always be grateful for their help. I also want to thank my supervisor at Nankai University, Professor Liu (Jianwen), who supported this research by introducing me to students of his who have connections with one of my fieldwork sites and helped me set up iii an interview with local government officials. Moreover, I want to thank Matt Sheehan and Journalist Liu (Haichuan) for passing on some protest leaders’ contact information to me so I could establish connections before I went back to China. To my yeye and nainai, who raised me from when I was six months old until they passed away when I was still a young boy, thank you for giving me so much love. Their unconditional love nourished, protected, and enriched me. They made me felt beloved, taught me about Justice and injustice, taught me the importance of knowledge and education, and taught me to be a good person, even though they were both illiterate. They are the most important people in my life, and I will miss them forever. To my father and mother, thank you for supporting me in pursuing my dreams. You have supported my education since I was seven years old. You allowed me to study in Yi county after I finished primary school when other people were laughing at you. You let me choose which maJor I would study, which university I would go to and what kind of lifestyle I would lead. After experiencing so many hardships, difficulties, and setbacks, as a family, our lives are finally heading towards a better direction and future. I thank my brother, Erbao, for taking care of my parents after I went abroad five years ago. Lastly, I want to thank the rest of my extended family, both in Hebei Province and Sichuan Province, who have always supported and encouraged me and have kept faith in me no matter what happened. iv Table of Contents Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgment ..................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... vii List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................. viii Chapter One: Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research question, argument and hypotheses .................................................................. 3 1.3 Why land-related protests? .............................................................................................. 5 1.4 Who owned China’s lands? ............................................................................................. 6 1.5 Why do some protests in China succeed while others fail? ............................................. 7 1.6 Research method ............................................................................................................ 10 1.7 The organization of this thesis ....................................................................................... 13 Chapter Two: Theoretical Framework ..................................................................................... 15 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 15 2.2 Wukan Protest ................................................................................................................ 16 2.3 Why do some protests succeed but others fail? ............................................................. 18 2.4 Issue opportunity structure ............................................................................................. 19 2.5 The role of “state capacity” ............................................................................................ 19 2.6 The role of social media ................................................................................................. 20 2.7 The role of “issue linkage” ............................................................................................ 22 2.8 The size of protests ........................................................................................................ 22 2.9 The role of the central government or provincial government ...................................... 24 2.10 The role of traditional media ........................................................................................ 25 2.11 The role of violence ..................................................................................................... 31 2.12 The role of timing of the protest .................................................................................. 32 Chapter Three: Research Method ............................................................................................ 35 3.1 Sub-national comparison ............................................................................................... 35 3.2 Media analysis ............................................................................................................... 37 3.3 Fieldwork interview ....................................................................................................... 40 3.4 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 44 Chapter Four: Empirical Case Studies ..................................................................................... 45 4.1 Liantang Case,