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Modelling the Impacts of Constrained Network Access Modelling the impacts of constrained network access Public report Public Utilities Office 1 October 2018 Notice Ernst & Young (“we” or “EY”) has been engaged by the Public Utilities Office (“you”, “PUO” or the “Client”) to provide electricity market modelling services to assist the PUO in investigating the relative financial impacts of implementing a constrained network access regime on existing and new generators in the Wholesale Electricity Market (the “Services”), in accordance with our Letter of Appointment dated 21 November 2017 and the Panel Contract. The enclosed report (the “Report”) sets out the modelling methodologies, key data inputs and assumptions and the outcomes of the modelling. The methodology described, together with the scenarios and assumptions used, have been agreed with the PUO, as a result of a public consultation process undertaken in March 2018. This Report is standalone and contains the assumptions and modelling methodology used as well as describing the outcomes. It also describes the changes to the assumptions compared to the original published modelling methodology and assumptions report in an Appendix. The Report should be read in its entirety including the applicable scope of the work and any limitations. A reference to the Report includes any part of the Report. The report has been constructed based on information current as of 18 September 2018 (being the date of completion of this Report), and which has been provided by the Client, other stakeholders or is available publicly. Since this date, material events may have occurred that are not reflected in the Report. Therefore, our Report does not take account of events or circumstances arising after the date of completion of this Report and we have no responsibility to update the Report for such events or circumstances. EY has prepared the Report for the benefit of the PUO and has considered only the interests of the PUO. EY has not been engaged to act, and has not acted, as advisor to any other party. Accordingly, EY makes no representations as to the appropriateness, accuracy or completeness of the Report for any other party's purposes. No reliance may be placed upon the Report or any of its contents by any recipient of the Report for any purpose and any party receiving a copy of the Report must make and rely on their own enquiries in relation to the issues to which the Report relates, the contents of the Report and all matters arising from or relating to or in any way connected with the Report or its contents. EY disclaims all responsibility to any other party for any loss or liability that the other party may suffer or incur arising from or relating to or in any way connected with the contents of the Report, the provision of the Report to the other party or the reliance upon the Report by the other party. No claim or demand or any actions or proceedings may be brought against EY arising from or connected with the contents of the Report or the provision of the Report to any party. EY will be released and forever discharged from any such claims, demands, actions or proceedings. The methodologies chosen are based, in part, on the assumptions stated and on information provided by the stakeholders engaged in this process. We do not imply, and it should not be construed that we have performed audit or due diligence procedures on any of the information provided to us. We have not independently verified, or accept any responsibility or liability for independently verifying, any such information nor do we make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information. We accept no liability for any loss or damage, which may result from your reliance on any research, analyses or information so supplied. Modelling work performed as part of our scope inherently requires assumptions about future behaviours and market interactions, which may result in forecasts that deviate from future conditions. There will usually be differences between estimated and actual results, because events and circumstances frequently do not occur as expected, and those differences may be material. We take no responsibility that the projected outcomes will be achieved, if any. Further, the outcomes are contingent on the collection of assumptions as agreed with the PUO and no consideration of other market events, announcements or other changing circumstances are reflected in this Report. Neither EY nor any member or employee thereof undertakes responsibility in any way whatsoever to any person in respect of errors in this Report arising from incorrect information provided to EY or other information sources used. EY have consented to the Report being published electronically on the PUO website for the purpose of presenting the modelling outcomes for the Services. EY have not consented to distribution or disclosure beyond this. The material contained in the Report, including the EY logo, is copyright and copyright in the Report itself vests in the PUO. The Report, including the EY logo, cannot be altered without prior written permission from EY. EY’s liability is limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation. Public Utilities Office Modelling the impacts of constrained network access Executive Summary EY has been engaged by the Department of Treasury’s Public Utilities Office (PUO) to provide electricity market modelling services to assist the PUO in investigating the impacts of implementing a constrained network access regime in the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) in Western Australia (the Project). The objective of the modelling is to quantify the relative financial impact to generators and whole of system outcomes as a result of this transition being complete in 2022. The modelling was conducted for the period from 1 July 2022 to 1 July 2032 (the Study Period). A number of scenarios were examined to account for uncertainties in future electricity demand and supply availability. This report presents two scenarios selected by the PUO which explore changes in supply and demand balance outlook focussing on the relative impact on generator dispatch due to alternative network access frameworks. The scenarios were developed by the PUO, in consultation with EY and based on feedback received through a public consultation process held by the PUO in March 2018. Table 1 provides an overview of the two scenarios that are presented in this report. Apart from demand forecasts, the scenarios use a consistent set of input assumptions, including individual generator technical parameters and costs. Demand assumptions are based on the Australian Energy Market Operator’s WEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities forecasts. These are described in detail in Appendix B of this Report. Table 1: Overview of the scenarios Assumption Base Scenario High Scenario Demand forecast Expected High Partially Constrained Partially Constrained Network access cases modelled Fully Constrained Fully Constrained Unconstrained (Firm) In each scenario two cases were modelled: Partially Constrained Access and Fully Constrained Access. In addition, a third case; Unconstrained Access, was modelled in the Base Scenario. These three cases can be described as follows: ► Partially Constrained Access represents the status quo in the WEM. In this case existing generators maintain their firm access entitlements but new entrant generators are subject to generation curtailment in response to network congestion. ► Fully Constrained Access represents the full implementation of the constrained network access reform. In this case both existing and new entrant generators are subject to generation curtailment in response to network congestion. ► Unconstrained Access represents a complete return to the firm access regime in the WEM. This involves all existing and new entrant generators having Unconstrained Access entitlements. For the purposes of this exercise, sufficient transmission network capacity is assumed to be built and funded by the Western Australian Government to ensure all generators have firm, unconstrained access to the network. In each scenario and case, EY conducted time-sequential half-hourly electricity market modelling of the WEM over the Study Period to forecast new entrant generator capacity on an economic basis. The modelling uses EY’s electricity market dispatch software, 2-4-C® with offers (bids) for each individual generating unit (Synergy units are also modelled with offers on an individual basis) that form a merit order allowing dispatch and the balancing market price to be computed for each half hour. The generating unit offers were developed from an extensive benchmarking exercise of the Public Utilities Office Modelling the impacts of constrained network access EY | i 2016-17 historical financial year. The benchmarking methodology and outcomes are described in Appendix A of this Report. The network constraint equations used in each case were developed by Western Power and the PUO. These include a set of candidate new entrant technologies and locations, based on the public consultation process held by the PUO in March 2018. The capacity market was modelled separately, using a formula from the WEM Market Rules to forecast the reserve capacity price based on the difference between the total amount of allocated capacity credits and the reserve capacity requirement (RCR) in each modelled year. The capacity credits allocated to each generator was determined by the PUO using the latest version of its capacity credit allocation tool. This tool uses methods previously
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