ISSN 2079-8555 e-ISSN 2310-0524 BALTIC REGION 2020 Vol. 12 № 1 KALININGRAD Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University Press 2020 12+ BALTIC Editorial council REGION Prof. Andrei P. Klemeshev, Immanuel Kant Baltic Fede ral Univer sity, Russia (Editor in Chief); Prof. Gennady M. Fedo­ rov, Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, Russia (Depu­ 2020 ty Chief Editor); Prof. Dr Joachim von Braun, University of Bonn, Germany; Prof. Irina M. Bu sygina, Saint Petersburg Volume 12 Branch of the Higher School of Economic Research University, № 1 Russia; Prof. Ale ksander G. Druzhinin, Southern Federal Uni­ versity, Russia; Prof. Mikhail V. Ilyin, Moscow State Insti­ tute of International Relations (MGIMO University), Russia; Kaliningrad : Dr Pertti Joenniemi, University of Eastern Finland, Finland; I. Kant Baltic Federal Dr Nikolai V. Kaledin, Saint Petersburg State University, Rus­ University Press, 2020. sia; Prof. Konstantin K. Khudolei, Saint Petersburg State Uni­ 198 р. versity, Russia; Dr Kari Liuhto, University of Turku, Finland; Prof. Vladimir A. Ko losov, Institute of Geography, Russian The journal Academy of Sciences, Russia; Prof. Gennady V. Kre tinin, Im­ was established in 2009 manuel Kant Baltic Federal Uni versity, Russia; Prof. Vla dimir A. Mau, Russian Presi dential Academy of National Econo­ Frequency: my and Public Administration, Russia; Prof. Andrei Yu. Mel­ quarterly ville, National Research University — Higher School of Eco­ in the Russian and English nomics, Russia; Prof. Nikolai M. Mezhevich, Saint Petersburg languages per year State University, Russia; Prof. Tadeusz Palmowski, University of Gdansk, Po land; Prof. Andrei E. Shastitko, Moscow State Founders University, Russia; Prof. Aleksander A. Sergunin, Saint Peters­ Immanuel Kant Baltic burg State University, Russia; Prof. Eduardas Spiriajevas, Klai­ Federal University peda University, Lithuania; Prof. Daniela Szymańska, Nicolaus Saint Petersburg Copernicus University in Torun, Poland; Dr Viktor V. Voronov, State University Dau gavpils Univer sity, Latvia. Editorial Office Address: 14 A. Nevskogo St., Kaliningrad, Russia, 236016 Managing editor: Tatyana Kuznetsova [email protected] Tel.: +7 4012 59-55-43 Fax: +7 4012 46-63-13 www.journals.kantiana.ru © I. Kant Baltic Federal University, 2020 CONTENTS Political Regional Studies Oskolkov P. V. Estonia’s party system today: electoral turbulence and changes in ethno­regional patterns ............................................................................................4 Lanko D. A., Lantsova I. S. Party system nationalization in Estonia, 2005—2019 ......16 Gribanova G. I., Sootla G., Kersten K. Local government reforms in Estonia: institutional context, intentions and outcomes .............................................................32 Romanova T. A., Sokolov N. I., Kolotaev Y. Y. Disinformation (fake news, propaganda) as a threat to resilience: approaches used in the EU and its member state Lithuania ..............................................................................................................53 Grigoreva O. V., Plyusnin N. O. The Danish Parliament as an actor of Denmark’s foreign policy towards the EU and Russia: a comparative analysis ............................68 Social geography and regional sociology Zhitin D. V., Sechi G., Krisjane Z., Berzins M. Socio­spatial differentiation in transition: a preliminary comparative analysis of post­soviet Saint Petersburg and Riga ................................................................................................................... 85 Dezhina I. G., Soldatova S. E., Ushakova S. E. Migration of researchers in the Baltic region: a forecast and factors ...................................................................115 Mikhaylov А. S., Wendt J. A., Peker I. Yu., Mikhaylova А. А. Spatio­temporal patterns of knowledge transfer in the borderland ........................................................132 Economic geography and regional economics Roos G., Voloshenko K. Yu., Drok T. E., Farafonova Yu. Yu. An economic complexity analysis of the Kaliningrad region: identifying sectoral priorities in the emerging value creation paradigm .....................................................................156 Krivosheev V. V., Makarov S. N. Managerial competencies required: a comparative analysis of Moscow and the Kaliningrad region ..........................................................181 POLITICAL REGIONAL STUDIES ESTONIA’S PARTY SYSTEM TODAY: ELECTORAL TURBULENCE AND CHANGES IN ETHNO-REGIONAL PATTERNS P. V. Oskolkov a, b а Institute of Europe Russian Academy of Sciences Received 24 August 2019 11—3 Mokhovaya St., Moscow, Russia, 125009 doi: 10.5922/2079-8555-2020-1-1 b MGIMO University, © Oskolkov P. V., 2020 76, Vernadskogo pr., Moscow, Russia, 119454 A well-developed party system has emerged in Estonia over the decades of independence. There are, however, distinct geographical patterns of voting. A number of new political parties have appeared in the country; the regional and ethnic patterns of voting (the latter matter much in Estonia) have changed dramatically. This study aims to analyse the recent changes in the Estonian party system as well as the causes of these changes and the effect of the ethnic and geographical factors on the transformation of the electoral behaviour of Estonian citizens. The research employs a systemic approach that makes it possible to solve the agent–structure problem to the benefit of the general structure and integral sys- tem of Estonia’s party scene. The method of comparative systemic analysis is used along- side those adopted in electoral geography. It is concluded that the effect of the ethnic and geographical factors on electoral behaviour is diminishing as a civil society based on civic rather than ethnic principles is emerging in the country. The main drivers of the change are the formation of new parties and coalition-building — both have an immedi- ate effect on how the image of the parties is perceived by voters. Keywords: party system, electoral geography, ethnicity, non­citizens, civic society, coalition­ building Introduction Since regaining independence, Estonia has developed a mature party system. Almost every ideological position possible has a party to defend it in the country. According to the principles of electoral geography, some parties are traditionally more popular in certain areas. In Estonia, such set patterns have existed for over To cite this article: Oskolkov, P. V. 2020, Estonia’s party system today: electoral turbulence and changes in ethno-regional patterns, Balt. Reg., Vol. 12, no 1, p. 4—15. doi: 10.5922/2078-8555-2020-1-1. BALTIС REGION ‣ 2020 ‣ Vol. 12 ‣ № 1 P. V. Oskolkov 5 fifteen years. The northeastern county of Ida-Viru and Tallinn used to vote for the Estonian Centre Party (the reasons for that are considered below), whereas the southern counties of Valga and Võru preferred social democrats. The emergence of new players in the Estonian political scene, however, subverted the usual pat­ tern. Coalitions were formed that were quite unexpected for the conservative public, and the electoral map of the country changed. The article attempts to answer several questions. How has the Estonian par­ ty system changed over recent years? What actors are dominating this system? How have the regional patterns of support for certain Estonian parties changed in recent years? What role do the ethnic and border factors play in these changes? A viable hypothesis is that the appearance of new party players in the Country eroded the traditional region-specific electoral preferences resulting in the ethnic and border factors losing their power. The article has the following structure. The first part provides an overview of Estonia’s party system and its changes in 2007—2019, i. e. during the last four electoral cycles. The most conspicuous patterns of voting for selected parties over the study period are identified. The level of analysis is a municipality (vald), or a county, if county data are congruent enough for a generalisation to the first level of territorial units. Further, the paper describes the effect of the ethnic factor on Estonian electoral dynamics. Finally, it indicates the causes and consequences of these changes basing on the analysis of the dynamics of the electoral­geo­ graphical situation in Estonia over the past twelve years. The Estonian party system and regional voting patterns The Estonian party system is highly fragmented. Although only five parties sit in the parliament (Riigikogu), there are fifteen registered political groups in the country. According to Giovanni Sartori’s classification, Estonia is a coun­ try of moderate pluralism. Using the data from the last parliamentary election (2019), it is possible to calculate the Laakso–Taageprea index of the effective number of parties for the country: N= . ଵ ଵ ଵ మ మ మ మ మ మ σ௣೔ ൌ ଴Ǥଶ଼଼ ା଴Ǥଶଷ ା଴Ǥଵ଻଼ ା଴Ǥଵଵସ ା଴Ǥ଴ଽ଼ ൌ ଴Ǥଵଽ଴ଵଶ଼ ൌ ͷǤ͵ Therefore, if rounded to an integer, the effective number of parties in Esto­ nia is five, which is the exact number of parties in the Riigikogu. Below is an overview of the evolution and ideologies of Estonian parliamen­ tary parties. 1 The Centre Party (Keskerakond) is one of the oldest parties in the country. Founded in 1991, it was as a successor to the Popular Front of Estonia, one of the two structures that had a key role in regaining independence. Edgar Savisaar 1 We also recommend that the reader peruse Rein Toomla’s comprehensive study of the 2000—2010 history and