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The Electoral College CON JUNE 2020 VOL. 99 NO. 6 A Pro & Con® Monthly The Electoral College PROS & CONS of a National Popular Vote Should the United States change the way it elects presidents? PRO Foreword: The Electoral College .........................................2 Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) .............................................. 18 How the Electoral College Works ........................................3 Adam Eichen ....................................................................... 20 Does the Electoral College Need Reform? .........................5 Equal Citizens The National Popular Vote ................................................ 10 Darrell M. West ................................................................... 24 Brookings Institution States in the National Popular Vote Compact ................ 13 CON Voter Trends in 2016 ......................................................... 14 Public Opinion on the Electoral College .......................... 16 Jason Pye ............................................................................. 19 FreedomWorks What Congress Is Doing on the Electoral College .......... 17 James Wallner ..................................................................... 23 R Street Institute PRO & CON Extra Topics Matthew Spalding .............................................................. 27 Mail-In Voting ..................................................................... 30 Hillsdale College Ending Surprise Medical Billing ........................................ 31 The Electoral College Should the United States change the way it elects presidents? “He who decides a case without hearing the other side . Midwestern and Rust Belt states grow more conservative. Tho he decide justly, cannot be considered just.” —Seneca Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who ran for the 2020 Democratic nomination, even called for the Electoral F O R E W O R D College to be abolished. “I believe presidential candidates should have to ask n June 2019, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D) signed a bill every American in every part of the country for their vote, Ithat she said would make her reliably blue state “part of not just a few random states that happen to be close,” the national conversation around presidential elections.” Warren wrote in 2019. The signing made Oregon the 15th state, along with the According to a March 2020 poll from the Pew District of Columbia, to join the National Popular Vote Research Center, 58% of Americans back a national pop- Interstate Compact, an effort to ditch the Electoral Col- ular vote, up from 51% in a poll immediately following lege. Once enough states join the compact, it could change the 2016 election. the way the U.S. elects presidents, moving the country Critics say that abolishing the Electoral College towards an electoral system based on the popular vote. would diminish the role of smaller states in presidential The Electoral College has long been controversial, politics. Why would a candidate spend time and money with critics saying it concentrates presidential campaigns in a small state like Nebraska or Wyoming when they into a handful of swing states and can lead to presidents could get more votes campaigning in Texas or Califor- being elected without a majority of votes. The 2016 elec- nia? The Electoral College also forces candidates to adopt tion, in which Republican candidate Donald Trump de- policies that appeal to centrist voters, rather than simply feated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College campaigning to activate a majority of partisan voters. despite losing the popular vote by more than 2.7 million Some Republicans have dismissed Democrats’ con- votes, has prompted a new look at the pros and cons of cerns as sour grapes and say there’s no need to overturn the Electoral College and has given more momentum to a system that has worked for 58 presidential elections. the National Popular Vote campaign. The Electoral College would have to be replaced Under Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution, the through a constitutional amendment, but attempts to president and vice president are chosen by electors who move one through Congress have come up short. Even are nominated by their states. The intent was to ensure if an amendment passed both chambers of Congress, 38 a national consensus when there were more than two states would need to ratify it, an unlikely event given the major parties and multiple candidates. Most states have power the Electoral College gives small states. laws that “bind” their electors to vote for the popular The National Popular Vote movement, however, vote winner in their state, with a fine for those who fail sidesteps that process by focusing on state legislatures. to do so. Currently, a candidate needs to secure 270 of It would kick in once states totaling 270 electoral votes 538 electoral votes to win. approve the measure, ensuring that the popular vote win- However, a solid chunk of those 538 votes are in states ner would also prevail in the Electoral College under where the outcome is rarely in doubt. Candidates can ef- current rules. As of May 2020, states totaling 196 votes fectively ignore those states when campaigning, and the have approved it, including the purple state of Colorado diversity of voices within those states is marginalized. (in November 2020, Colorado voters will vote on a ballot Although the Electoral College has aligned with the measure that could remove the state from the compact). popular vote more than 90% of the time, there have been There’s no chance that the National Popular Vote five elections in which the president did not win a ma- Interstate Compact will clear enough states ahead of the jority. Two of those have come in the past 20 years, each 2020 election, but the Electoral College debate is sure to time favoring the Republican candidate, leading Dem- stay on the front burner, especially if the winner of the ocrats to worry that they could be at a disadvantage as Electoral College loses the popular vote again. n 2 Congressional Digest n www.CongressionalDigest.com n June 2020 How the Electoral College Works Who’s really voting for the president? he Founding Fathers established the Electoral College Opinions on the viability of the Electoral College Tin the Constitution, in part, as a compromise between system may be affected by attitudes toward third parties. the election of the President by a vote in Congress and Third parties have not fared well in the Electoral College election of the President by a popular vote of qualified system. For example, third party candidates with region- citizens. However, the term “Electoral College” does al appeal, such as [South Carolina] Governor [Strom] not appear in the Constitution. Article II of the Consti- Thurmond in 1948 and [Alabama] Governor [George] tution and the 12th Amendment refer to “electors,” but Wallace in 1968, won blocs of electoral votes in the South, not to the “Electoral College.” but neither came close to seriously challenging the major Since the Electoral College process is part of the orig- party winner, although they may have affected the overall inal design of the U.S. Constitution it would be necessary outcome of the election. to pass a Constitutional amendment to change this system. The last third party, or splinter party, candidate to The ratification of the 12th Amendment, the expan- make a strong showing was Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 sion of voting rights, and the States’ use of the popular (Progressive, also known as the Bull Moose Party). He vote to determine who will be appointed as electors have finished a distant second in Electoral and popular votes each substantially changed the process. (taking 88 of the 266 electoral votes needed to win at the Many different proposals to alter the Presidential time). Although Ross Perot won 19 percent of the popular election process have been offered over the years, such vote nationwide in 1992, he did not win any electoral as direct nationwide election by the eligible voters, but votes since he was not particularly strong in any one state. none has been passed by Congress and sent to the states In 2016, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party candidate, for ratification as a Constitutional amendment. Under the qualified for the ballot in all 50 states and the District most common method for amending the Constitution, an of Columbia but also failed to win any electoral votes. amendment must be proposed by a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress and ratified by three-fourths n Distribution of Electoral Votes of the states. Allocation among the states. Electoral votes are What proposals have been made to change the Elec- allocated among the states based on the Census. Every toral College process? Reference sources indicate that state is allocated a number of votes equal to the number over the past 200 years more than 700 proposals have of senators and representatives in its U.S. Congressio- been introduced in Congress to reform or eliminate the nal delegation—two votes for its senators in the U.S. Electoral College. There have been more proposals for Senate plus a number of votes equal to the number of its Constitutional amendments on changing the Electoral Congressional districts. Under the 23rd Amendment of College than on any other subject. The American Bar the Constitution, the District of Columbia is allocated Association has criticized the Electoral College as “archa- three electors and treated like a state for purposes of the ic” and “ambiguous” and its polling showed
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