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ORGANIZATION FOR SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH IN EASTERN AFRICA Copyright © Fassil G. Kiros First Edition 1993 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in aretrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the author ISBN 92 9064 059 6 for Tarik Acknowledgement The author wishes to acknowledge the support and cooperation received from a number of institutions and individuals while undertaking this work. The institutions which have provided support on different occasions are the Ford Foundation; The Rockefeller Foundation; the Institute of International Studies of the University of California at Berkeley; and jointly the Center for African Studies, Department of Economics and Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences of the University of Florida, Gainesville. Individuals who have generously given of their time to read and comment on earlier drafts of the manuscript are Goran Hyden, Michael J. Watts and Eshetu Chole. Bahru Zewde has also kindly commented on parts of Chapter 2 and 3. The author extends sincere gratitude to all the institutions and individuals. However, all the Findings and views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of either the institutions or individuals. Contents List of Tables ix List of Annexes xi Introduction xv 1 The Many Faces of Rural Poverty 1 Introduction 1 The Facts of Rural Poverty 2 The Realities of Poverty 4 The Impact of Chronic Food Shortage 4 Poverty and lll-Health 7 Conclusion 11 Annexes to Chapter I 12 References and Notes to chapter 1 15 2 The Erosion of the Rural Production System 17 Introduction 17 The Diversity of Rural Production Systems and Indigenous Technologies 19 Systems of Subsistence Production in Ethiopia 22 Physical and Biotic Problems of Production 25 The Struggle for Survival 27 The Impact of Socio-Political Forces 29 The Burden of Tribute and Taxation 30 The Impacts of the Scramble for Power 33 Conclusion 35 Annexes to Chapter 2 37 References and Notes to Chapter 2 42 vi The Subsistence Crisis in Africa: The Case of Ethiopia 3 Aspects of Modernization Policy and its Impact on the Rural Society 49 The Origin and Evolution of Modernization in Ethiopia 49 Aspects of Ethiopia's Modernization Policy 53 The Impact of Modernization Policy 55 External Economic Dependency 56 Deepening Exploitation of the Rural Producers 57 The Impact of Urbanization 60 Conclusion 65 Annexes to Chapter 3 67 References and Notes to Chapter 3 72 4 Toward a Policy of Agricultural Modernization 1967-1975 77 Introduction 77 The Regional Projects of Food-Grain Production 79 The Chilalo Agricultural Development Project 79 Other Projects 81 The National Scheme of Agricultural Modernization 82 An Assessment of the Impact of the Policy of Agricultural Modernization 84 Conclusion 94 Annexes to Chapter 4 95 References and Notes to Chapter 4 99 5 The Policy of Revolutionary Transformation of Agriculture 103 Introduction 103 The 1975 Rural Lands Proclamation 105 The Process of Land Distribution 107 The Creation of Rural Mass Organizations 111 The Transitional Rural Institutions — The Peasant Associations and Service Cooperatives 112 The Plan for the Development of Agricultural Producers' Cooperatives 114 The Creation of State Farms 117 Agricultural Production Strategy Since 1975 118 Agriculture in the Six-Years Campaign 119 Agriculture in the Ten-Year Perspective Plan 122 Conclusion 123 Annexes to Chapter 5 124 References and Notes to Chapter 5 128 Contents vii 6 The Outcomes of the Revolutionary Agrarian Policy 131 Introduction 131 The Impact of the 1975 Agrarian Reform 132 The Peasant Sector 132 The State Sector in Agriculture 136 The State Farms 137 Agricultural Marketing Corporation 140 Overall Impact of Agricultural Production Policies 143 The Impact of Other Policies and Practices on the Rural Population 146 Taxes and Other Levies 146 The Population Resettlement and Villagization Policies 147 Bureaucratic Malaise and Campaign-Mania 148 Conclusion 149 Annexes to Chapter 6 151 References and Notes to Chapter 6 154 7 The Undercurrents of Demographic and Ecological Changes and their Economic Consequences 157 Introduction 157 The Pressure of Population Growth 159 Population Growth: I900-19S4 159 The Growth Potential of Ethiopia's Population 163 The Extent of Land Degradation and Its Economic Consequences 165 The Economic Consequences of Recurrent Drought and Famine 167 Impact on Agriculture and Livestock 168 Overall Economic Impact 170 The Cumulative Effects of Drought 172 Conclusion 173 Annexes to Chapter 7 175 References and Notes to Chapter 7 181 8 Challenges of the 1990s and the New Century: Conclusions 185 Introduction 185 The Dilemma of Poverty Amidst Potential Plenty 186 The Challenge of Development in Perspective 188 The Scope of Rural Development 193 Leading Issues of Rural Development 196 Food and Development 197 Means of Empowerment of the Rural People 199 viii The Subsistence Crisis in Africa: The Case of Ethiopia Strategies Required to Suit Diverse Conditions of Production 201 Utilization of Human and Physical Resources 202 Research and the Development of Appropriate Technology 206 Concluding Remarks 209 Annexes to Chapter 8 212 References and Notes to Chapter 8 215 Index 219 List of Tables 1 1.1 Average Annual Growth Rates of Production by Major Sectors and Total GDP — 1965-1988 1.2 Daily Calorie Supply Per Capita in Ethiopia in 1965 and 1986 Compared with Levels in Other Developing Countries 1.3 Some Indicators of Health Conditions in Ethiopia Compared with Those of Other Developing Countries of the World 2 2.1 The Complex Pattern of Crop Rotation Evolved in Parts of Arsi, Gojam and Shewa Regions 3 3.1 Values of Imports and Exports of Cereals and Flour — 1962-1964 4 4.1 Fertilizer and Improved Seed Distributed Under the MPP — 1970/ 71-1973/74 4.2 An Example of the Incongruence Between Production Problems and Technological Inputs Trend of Increase in the Average Price of DAP and Urea in Ethiopia Wheat Varie ties Released and Later Abandoned by CADU 1967- 1983 5 5.1 Average Number of Peasant Associations and Members Under Ministry of Agriculture by Region — 1987/88 X The Subsistence Crisis in Africa: The Case of Ethiopia 5.2 Distribution of Fertilizer and "Improved" Seeds — 1975/76-1977/ 78 5.3 Fertilizer Distribution by Major Users — 1978/1979-1982/83 5.4 Quantity of Seeds Distributed by the Ethiopian Seed Corporation 6 6.1 Average Size Distribution of Holdings of Peasant Households in 1974/75 and 1977/78 6.2 Sizes of Fragmented Holdings in a Sample of 295 Households from Eight Peasant Associations in Adaa in 1977/78 6.3 Estimates of Yields of Major Crops in Ethiopia for Producers' Cooperatives, Private Peasant Holdings and State Farms — 1979/ 8-1985/86 6.4 Actual Capital Expenditure on Agriculture and The Share of State Farms — 1979-1985 6.5 Purchase Share of AMC in Total "Marketable Surplus"— 1976/77— 1985/86 6.6 National Estimates of Area Under Major Crops and Production of Major Crops — 1979/80-1985/86 6.7 Estimated Growth of Main Sectors of the Economy — 1984/85- 1990/91 7 7.1 Reconstructed Estimates of Ethiopia's Population Sizes and Growth Rates—1980-1984 7.2 Estimated Population Density by Region — 1978 and 1984 7.3 Population Projections for Ethiopia Under Different Scenarios — 1985-2035 7.4 Estimated Soil Losses by Type of Land Cover in Ethiopia 7.5 Percent Changes of Export and Import Values— 1979/80-1984/85 List of Annexes 1 1.1 GNP Per Capita of Ethiopia and "Low-Income" Countries of Africa and the World — 1990 1.2 Pattern of Income Distribution Among the Agricultural Producers' Cooperatives of Chilalo Awraja 1986/87 1.3 Rural Cereal Consumption 1966/67, 1966/68, 1979/80, 1982/83 1.4 Estimated Population Affected by National and Man-Made Disas- ters 1973/74-1986/87 2 2.1 The Nomadic Ethnic Groups of Ethiopia and their Geographic Locations 2.2 Estimates of Ethiopia's Total and Nomadic Herds 2.3 Major Problems that Affect Production According to About 7,000 Ethiopian Subsistence Producers in Thirteen Weredas (Districts) Located in Six Regions 2.4 Excerpts from Asbe Hailu's Descriptions of the Conditions of the Ethiopian Peasantry 2.5 Percentage of Tenants in Total Farm Population and Percentage of Total Area Cultivated by Tenants 2.6 Absentee Landowners in Pre-1975 Period 3 3.1 Estimated Exports and Imports of Ethiopia—April 1, 1887-March 31,1898 3.2 Total Value of Imports, Exports and Re-Exports, and Visible Bal- ance of Trade of Ethiopia — 1945-1964 xii The Subsistence Crisis in Africa: The Case of Ethiopia 3.3 Budgeted Government Expenditure of the Year-Ending September 5, 1945 4 4.1 The Application of the Concept of Integrated Development by ARDU 5 5.1 Powers and Duties of the Peasant Associations 5.2 Objectives, Powers and Duties of Service Cooperative Societies 5.3 Number of Service Cooperatives and Their Membership Under the Ministry of Agriculture — 1987/88 6 6.1 Agricultural Producers' Cooperatives Established up to 1987/88 by Region 6.2 Estimates of Production of Major Crops for Private Holdings — 1979/80-1983/84 6.3 Estimates of Production of Major Crops for Stale Farms— 1979/80- 1983/84 6.4 Estimates of Production of Major Crops for Cooperatives — 1979/ 80-1983/84 7 7.1 Estimate of Rural and Urban Population — 1978 7.2 Total Population of Ethiopia by Region, Rural and Urban — 1984 7.3 Projected Crude Rates of Population Growth — 1985 - 2035 7.4 Projected Working-Age Population (10 years and above)