Final Report Project Seasonal Climate Forecasting for Better Irrigation System Management in Lombok, Indonesia
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Final report project Seasonal climate forecasting for better irrigation system management in Lombok, Indonesia project number SMCN/2002/033 date published September 2009 prepared by Dr David McClymont, Dr Xike Zhang, Dr Sunil Duta, Dr Simon White Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence Ir. Ismail Yasin, Dr Husni Idris, Ir. Addinul Yakin, Professor Mansur Ma'shum University of Mataram, Indonesia Mr Ahmad Suriadi Balai Pengkajian Technology Pertanian Nusa Tengarra Barat (BPTP NTB), Indonesia Ir. Surana Dinas Pekerjaan Umum, Indonesia approved by Dr Gamini Keerthisinghe final report number FR2009-44 ISBN 978 1 921615 53 5 published by ACIAR GPO Box 1571 Canberra ACT 2601 Australia This publication is published by ACIAR ABN 34 864 955 427. Care is taken to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However ACIAR cannot accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in the publication. 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Final report: Seasonal climate forecasting for better irrigation system management in Lombok, Indonesia Contents 1 Executive summary .................................................................................. 5 2 Background ............................................................................................. 10 2.1 Study area .......................................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Project context (relationship to previous ACIAR research and other research) ................ 12 3 Objectives ............................................................................................... 15 4 Methodology ........................................................................................... 17 4.1 Methodology for climate analysis .......................................................................................18 4.2 Hydrological modelling .......................................................................................................20 4.3 Cropping optimisation (LP model)......................................................................................27 4.4 Development of decision support software ........................................................................ 28 4.5 Assessing supplementary irrigation resources ..................................................................30 4.6 Capacity building ................................................................................................................ 31 4.7 Information dissemination ..................................................................................................32 5 Achievements against activities and outputs/milestones .................. 33 6 Key results and discussion ................................................................... 35 6.1 Seasonal climate forecasting .............................................................................................35 6.2 Hydrological modelling .......................................................................................................40 6.3 Cropping optimisation (LP model)......................................................................................52 6.4 Development of decision support software ........................................................................ 60 6.5 Assessing supplementary irrigation resources ..................................................................71 6.6 Capacity building ................................................................................................................ 77 6.7 Information dissemination ..................................................................................................78 7 Impacts .................................................................................................... 84 7.1 Scientific impacts ............................................................................................................... 84 7.2 Capacity impacts ................................................................................................................ 84 7.3 Community impacts ...........................................................................................................85 7.4 Communication and dissemination activities .....................................................................86 8 Conclusions and recommendations ..................................................... 88 8.1 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................88 8.2 Recommendations .............................................................................................................90 9 References .............................................................................................. 92 9.1 List of publications produced by project ...........................................................................103 Page iii Final report: Seasonal climate forecasting for better irrigation system management in Lombok, Indonesia 10 Appendixes ........................................................................................... 104 10.1 Appendix 1: Rainfall predictand data used in seasonal skill assessment .......................104 10.2 Appendix 2: Background to seasonal climate forecasting ...............................................107 10.3 Appendix 3: Skill score assessment for Indonesian rainfall .............................................113 10.4 Appendix 4: Skill score assessment for Lombok rainfall .................................................125 10.5 Appendix 5: Skill assessment of the catchment river inflows and irrigation diversions ...137 10.6 Appendix 6: Skill assessment of the onset of the monsoon ............................................145 10.7 Appendix 7: Summary of data collection .........................................................................146 10.8 Appendix 8: Planting areas adopted in IQQM .................................................................154 10.9 Appendix 9: Guidelines for evaluating the quality of streamflow and diversion calibration .........................................................................................................................156 10.10 Appendix 10: IQQM Lombok node network diagrams .....................................................157 10.11 Appendix 11: IHACRES calibration outputs .....................................................................170 10.12 Appendix 12: Selected calibration results of Lombok IQQM ...........................................171 10.13 Appendix 13: Water balance formulation .........................................................................180 10.14 Appendix 14: Mathematical formulation of user-defined constraints ...............................182 10.15 Appendix 15: LP model validation-Comparison of Solver vs CropOptimiser outputs ......186 10.16 Appendix 16: Overview of FlowCast analyses .................................................................194 10.17 Appendix 17: Groundwater analysis results ....................................................................200 10.18 Appendix 18: HowLeaky parameterisations ....................................................................201 10.19 Appendix 19: Current state of institutions and policy on extension and dissemination in Indonesia and Lombok .....................................................................................................206 Page iv Final report: Seasonal climate forecasting for better irrigation system management in Lombok, Indonesia 1 Executive summary This project aimed to develop, customise and promote seasonal climate forecast (SCF) technologies to improve the management of irrigated agricultural production systems in Lombok, Indonesia. The climate of Lombok is highly variable being significantly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which greatly affects the productivity of the predominantly rice-based local agriculture. By customising ENSO-based SCF technologies for use in regional agricultural management and planning, there is significant potential to increase Lombok's agricultural productivity and revenue in favourable seasons and reduce the risk of crop losses in dry years and prolonged droughts. To achieve this, the objectives of the project embodied a range of decision support and “systems- modelling” development, capacity-building and information dissemination components including: • Collecting, synthesising, modelling and collating hydrologic and climatic data for integration into a climate-based decision support system. • Developing decision support tools for optimising choice of crop, crop area and irrigation water allocation based on seasonal climate information. • Promoting SCF-based planning amongst irrigators, government officials and community leaders. • Building local capacity in the development and operational use of decision support systems. Commencing