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A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick Permanent WRAP URL: http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/150669 Copyright and reuse: This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. For more information, please contact the WRAP Team at: [email protected] warwick.ac.uk/lib-publications Japan’s Incremental Grand Strategic Shift in the 21st Century: The Cases of Article 9 and Ballistic Missile Defence Through a Neoclassical Realist Approach By Yuki Watai A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Politics and International Studies The University of Warwick Department of Politics and International Studies September 2 2019 Table of Contents List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... II List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... III Declaration .................................................................................................................................. IV Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... V Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... VII List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................ VIII 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Research Puzzle and the Purpose of the Thesis .................................................................. 1 1.2 Theoretical Framework and Methodology .......................................................................... 3 1.3 Japan in Broader International Relations Debates and the Contributions of the Thesis ... 4 1.4 Two Case Studies: The Constitution and Ballistic Missile Defence ................................... 6 1.5 Summary and Contributions of the Thesis .......................................................................... 8 1.6 Structure of the Thesis......................................................................................................... 9 2 Literature Review: What Drives Japan, How It Behaves and Where It Is Headed .................. 11 2.1 Japan’s Re-emergence in the International System Post-Cold War .................................. 11 2.2 Motivations for Japan to Behave as It Does ...................................................................... 14 2.3 A Means to Achieve Security ............................................................................................ 18 2.4 Where Is Japan Headed? ................................................................................................... 19 2.5 Key Variables with Missing Links and a Research Puzzle ............................................... 20 3 Theoretical Framework ............................................................................................................ 24 3.1 Neoclassical Realism: What Is It, What Is Its Purpose and Why Has It Been Chosen? ... 24 3.2 Structure, System, Structural Modifiers and Power (Balancing) ...................................... 32 3.3 The Concept of Strategic Environment and Clarity .......................................................... 35 3.4 Intervening Variables ........................................................................................................ 38 3.5 Methodology – Process Tracing ........................................................................................ 44 i 3.6 The Operationalisation of Neoclassical Realism in Japan’s Security Policy .................... 46 3.7 Hypotheses of Japan’s Incremental Grand Strategic Adjustment ..................................... 57 4 Assessment of the Strategic Environment: Japan’s Behaviour Post-Cold War and In Future . 60 4.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 60 4.2 The Rise of China .............................................................................................................. 61 4.3 North Korea ....................................................................................................................... 68 4.4 Assessment of Japan’s Strategic Environment in the 21st Century ................................... 71 5 Case Study I: Constitutional Reinterpretations/Revision ......................................................... 75 5.1 Introduction: Evolution of Constitutional Reinterpretation .............................................. 75 5.2 Constitutional Reinterpretation/Revision Between 2004 and 2008 .................................. 83 5.3 Collective Self-Defence and the Constitutional Revision Between 2009 and 2012 ....... 100 5.4 Collective Self-Defence and Constitutional Revision Between 2012 and 2018 ............. 112 5.5 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 130 6 Case Study II: Ballistic Missile Defence ................................................................................ 134 6.1 Introduction: A Brief History of Ballistic Missile Defence in Japan .............................. 134 6.2 Ballistic Missile Defence: Materialisation of Defensive Realist Strategy between 2004 and 2009 ................................................................................................................................ 149 6.3 Continuity of Defensive Realist Grand Strategy of Ballistic Missile Defence Between 2009 and 2012 ....................................................................................................................... 165 6.4 Towards an Offensive-realist Oriented Grand Strategy Between 2012 and 2018 .......... 175 6.5 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 189 7 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 193 The List of Interviews ............................................................................................................... 213 References ................................................................................................................................. 215 ii List of Figures Figure 3.1 Basic Interaction of Variables of NCR ...................................................................... 28 Figure 3.2 Conceptual Linkage between Structure, System, Structural Modifiers and Power ... 35 Figure 3.3 The Web of the Interaction of Each Variable ............................................................ 43 Figure 3.4 NCR Analytical Model of Japan’s Security Policy ................................................... 58 Figure 4.1 GDP of US, China and Japan ..................................................................................... 61 Figure 4.2 Annual GDP Growth of US, China and Japan ........................................................... 62 Figure 4.3 Annual Military Expenditure of US, China and Japan .............................................. 62 Figure 4.4 Purchasing Power Parity of US, China and Japan ..................................................... 63 Figure 5.1 The Proportion of the Public to Support the Constitutional Revision ....................... 97 Figure 5.2 The Proportion of the Public to Oppose the Constitutional Revision ........................ 97 Figure 6.1 The Operational Concept of BMD ........................................................................... 136 II List of Tables Table 3.1 Japan’s Grand Strategic Adjustment and its Means .................................................... 49 Table 3.2 The Break Down of Each Intervening Variable .......................................................... 56 Table 3.3 List of Hypotheses Relating to Japan’s Progressive Grand Strategic Adjustment ...... 57 Table 5.1 Hypotheses of the Case of Article 9 ............................................................................ 82 Table 5.2 The Past Attempts to Enact the Law Concerning the National Referendum .............. 90 Table 5.3 The Highest and Lowest Cabinet Support Rate of the Prime Ministers between 2004 and 2009 ...................................................................................................................................... 98 Table 6.1 The Details of Intervening Variables for the Case of BMD ...................................... 140 Table 6.2 Hypotheses of the Case of BMD ............................................................................... 148 Table 7.1 The Presence/Absence of Leaders’ Image ................................................................ 199 Table 7.2 The Presence/Absence of Domestic Institutions ....................................................... 200 Table 7.3 The Presence/Absence of State-Society Relations .................................................... 203 Table 7.4 The Summary of Each