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A University of Sussex PhD thesis Available online via Sussex Research Online: http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/ This thesis is protected by copyright which belongs to the author. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the Author The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the Author When referring to this work, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given Please visit Sussex Research Online for more information and further details The effect of new media on candidate independence: A comparison of constituency candidates in the United Kingdom and Japan SEAN PAUL VINCENT DOCTORAL THESIS IN POLITICS UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX SUBMITTED NOVEMBER 2017 Abstract This thesis examines how constituency candidates are furthering independence from the national party through new media campaigning, by comparing data from general elections in two countries with different styles of campaigning – party-centred campaigning in the United Kingdom (2015) and candidate-centred campaigning Japan (2014). Data collection and analysis has been conducted in a two-stage process. Firstly, candidates’ website and social media use (Twitter and Facebook) during election campaigns was examined, establishing the degree to which candidates are using new media to pursue the personal vote, and what form this takes. Findings from candidate new media use were also used to formulate the second stage of research – interviews with candidates and members of parliament in both the UK and Japan. A secondary research question has also examines whether personal vote seeking behaviour has a positive impact on candidates’ electoral performance, or whether party performance factors are a key factor of performance at the constituency level. This study confirms that that Japanese candidates use new media to run more candidate centred campaigns, replicating traditional campaign styles, but also finds that other factors, namely candidates’ levels of experience and the strength of the national party, play a role in how candidates utilise new media. This is broadly confirmed through findings from candidate interviews which also provide a greater understanding of different campaign behaviour not just between Japanese and UK candidates, but also those representing political parties of varying strength. 1 Contents List of tables and figures………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5 Introduction to research ........................................................................................................................ 7 Aims and major findings of this research ............................................................................................. 12 Thesis structure ..................................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 1: Literature Review and theoretical framework .................................................................. 14 Literature Review .................................................................................................................................. 15 The personal vote ............................................................................................................................. 15 Party vs candidate centred voting .................................................................................................... 17 The Internet in Politics: early studies ................................................................................................ 21 Expanding functionality of the Internet in politics ........................................................................... 22 Literature on constituency level candidates and signs of independence ......................................... 23 New media and its effect on vote share ........................................................................................... 25 Case selection: United Kingdom and Japan .......................................................................................... 28 Campaigning in the United Kingdom ................................................................................................ 29 Campaigning in Japan ....................................................................................................................... 31 Hypotheses for Chapters 3-7 ................................................................................................................ 33 Chapters 3-6: Content analysis of new media use during election campaigns ................................ 33 Chapters 3 and 4: National party policy comparison ........................................................................ 37 Chapter 7: The Impact of personal vote seeking behaviour on vote share ...................................... 38 Chapter 2: Research design and methodology .................................................................................... 41 The use of mixed methodology in social science .................................................................................. 42 Chapters 3- 5: Methodology ................................................................................................................. 43 Candidate websites ........................................................................................................................... 45 Twitter and Facebook ....................................................................................................................... 47 Data collection .................................................................................................................................. 51 Dependent and independent variables included in PVI analysis (H1-H4) ............................................ 53 Dependent variable – Personal Vote Index (PVI) score .................................................................... 53 Independent variables ...................................................................................................................... 55 Chapters 3 & 4: National party policy comparison (H5) ....................................................................... 56 Chapter 6: Candidate Interviews .......................................................................................................... 57 Chapter 7: The impact of new media on vote share (H6) ..................................................................... 59 Dependent and independent variables ............................................................................................ 59 2 Control variables ............................................................................................................................... 60 Chapter 3: The 2015 United Kingdom general election ...................................................................... 62 Background to the 2015 United Kingdom general election ................................................................. 63 Details on methodology ........................................................................................................................ 65 National party policy comparison ..................................................................................................... 68 Details of frequency of use and number of followers on social media ................................................ 69 New media and the personal vote: Candidate websites ...................................................................... 73 New media and the personal vote: Social media analysis .................................................................... 75 Pursuing the personal vote on social media ..................................................................................... 75 Social Media content ........................................................................................................................ 78 Results of social media analysis ........................................................................................................ 80 Personal Vote Index .............................................................................................................................. 82 Policy promotion by candidates on social media ................................................................................. 86 Local vs national policy promotion ................................................................................................... 86 Party policy positions ........................................................................................................................ 87 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................... 91 Chapter 4: The 2014 Japanese lower house election .......................................................................... 94 Background to the 2014 Japanese Lower House Election .................................................................... 95 Details on methodology ........................................................................................................................ 97 National party policy comparison ................................................................................................... 100 Details on frequency of use and number of followers ......................................................................
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