Transit Operations Quarterly Report Q3-FY17[Icon]

ATTACHMENT 16A Transit Operations Quarterly Report For the Period January 1, 2017 – March 31, 2017 (Q3 of FY17) Page 1 of 38 Contents BACKGROUND .............................................................................................................. 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 4 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ............................................................................. 6 RIDERSHIP PERFORMANCE ...................................................................................... 10 ROUTE PERFORMANCE ............................................................................................. 15 CUSTOMER FEEDBACK ............................................................................................. 31 FARE COLLECTION SYSTEM ..................................................................................... 37 Page 2 of 38 BACKGROUND NCTD produces this Quarterly Performance Report to provide information regarding the performance of its operations. The data contained in this report for Fiscal Year 2017 is unaudited and subject to change. In December 2015, NCTD awarded a new contract to Bombardier Transportation (Holdings) USA, Inc. (Bombardier) for combined SPRINTER and COASTER operations and maintenance. Revenue operations by Bombardier commenced with an early start in mid-June 2016, three weeks before the beginning of FY2017, July 1, 2016. The Bombardier contract with NCTD included a more robust capital project program approximating $5 million annually compared to the prior rail operations and maintenance contract in effect during 2nd Quarter FY2016. In the 4th Quarter of FY2017, NCTD will be reclassifying those capital costs from operating costs to better represent actual cost performance for the rail modes. For example, the combined operating costs for SPRINTER and COASTER for 2nd Quarter FY2016 was $7,153,869; for 2nd Quarter FY2017 it was $8,812,845, an increase of $1,658,976. Based on the estimated $5 million of capital eligible activity in the Bombardier contract, a reclassification of capital costs of up to $1,250,000 will be made to the FY2017 total expenditures for SPRINTER and COASTER operations. As a result of this adjustment, costs will increase by $408,976 or 5.72%. NCTD has also implemented automatic passenger counters (APC) for COASTER operations and has received certification from the Federal Transit Administration to use this technology for the counting of passengers. The use of APCs are more accurate than the manual methodology previously used by NCTD. Comparison of prior ridership conducted based using the manual methodology with APCs may result in significant variations with the APC technology being the most accurate method. Final and audited financial and performance results will be provided as part of NCTD’s Comprehensive Annual Financial Report. Page 3 of 38 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ridership across all modes (BREEZE, COASTER, SPRINTER, LIFT, and FLEX) decreased in FY17 Quarter 3 compared to FY16 Quarter 3. NCTD’s ridership performance is consistent with the nation-wide trends of decreased transit ridership, which can be attributed to increased usage of automobiles as measured by vehicle miles traveled and record automobile sales. Increased automobile usage has also been driven by low gasoline prices. Transit ridership has also been impacted by the growing popularity of transportation network companies (TNCs), like Uber and Lyft. Ridership for NCTD’s fixed-route bus and rail service is interdependent, with many passengers using BREEZE as a feeder service to COASTER and SPRINTER rail services. For multi-modal transit trips, a decrease in rail ridership directly results in a decrease in ridership for feeder services, contributing to an 11.4% decrease in ridership for the three modes from FY16 Quarter 3. BREEZE and SPRINTER service are the most integrated of NCTD’s modes, with buses scheduled to connect with SPRINTER arrivals and depart after the SPRINTER departs. Due to a strong interdependence of the two modes, changes in ridership in one mode have a related impact on the other mode. In FY17 Quarter 3 BREEZE service had a 12.5% decrease in riders, while SPRINTER ridership decreased by 8.4%. The SPRINTER station with largest drop in ridership was Palomar College SPRINTER Station. Palomar College Spring 2016 semester began 8 days sooner than the Spring 2017 semester leading to a decrease in trips to the Palomar College station. On-time performance and the percentage of trips operated for both services was very high with almost 100% of the service being operated (BREEZE 99.8% and SPRINTER 98.4%) and both improving their on-time performance from prior years. The overall COASTER ridership recorded using a manual counting methodology shows a decrease of 9.7% from the previous year; however, the DILAX automatic passenger (APC) data shows an increase in ridership ranging from 3.9 – 14.5% per station. The APC data is more accurate within a certified statistical confidence of 96.73%. To help reconcile the difference in ridership between manual and APC counts, NCTD reviewed COASTER revenue for the 3rd Quarter FY 16 with the 3rd Quarter FY 17 and found that revenue declined by $63,317 or 4.28%. Now that COASTER APC data has been certified by the National Transit Database, its data will be used as the sole source to report COASTER ridership going forward. COASTER on-time performance decreased by nearly 5% from FY16 Quarter 3. The declining on-time performance is attributable to construction activity and the performance of the COASTER operations contractor. As it relates to construction, there are more than six (6) projects totaling $427 million under construction that are impacting COASTER operations. The construction impacts have resulted in railroad closures, longer travel times, and delays. Unfortunately, NCTD cannot eliminate all of the construction delays. However, NCTD, SANDAG, and the Page 4 of 38 construction contractors have already been working on strategies to minimize the impact of construction on train service. As it relates to the performance of the COASTER operations contractor, on June 18, 2016, Bombardier assumed COASTER operations. As would be expected, the initial startup of a new operator can result in negative impacts to service. It was NCTD’s expectation that Bombardier, after its initial six months of operation – as of December 31, 2016, would have been performing at a very high level that exceeded past performance. Unfortunately, this has not been the case. Key areas in need of immediate improvement are COASTER vehicle maintenance, signal maintenance, and response time to incidents. NCTD is working with Bombardier to ensure that NCTD’s goals are met and ultimately exceeded. FLEX ridership decreased in FY17 Quarter 3 compared to the prior year’s Quarter 3. This can be attributed to the decline in ridership on the COASTER. The two on-demand FLEX zones serve the Poinsettia, Encinitas, and Solana Beach COASTER stations. The lower COASTER ridership contributed to decreased FLEX ridership, with less passengers using FLEX to access COASTER. There is a similar trend for Sorrento Valley COASTER Connection routes, which are scheduled with the COASTER and operated by San Diego Metropolitan Transit System (SDMTS). LIFT ridership decreased from FY16 Quarter 3 by 3.7% on average on the weekdays, breaking a trend of increasing ridership in prior years. NCTD is taking proactive steps to address declining ridership and customer revenue trends. Actions include: 1. The NCTD Board of Directors approved route modifications at its May 18, 2017 Board meeting that will be implemented in October 2017. These changes will improve productivity and support increased ridership. 2. The NCTD Board of Directors at its May 18, 2017 Board meeting authorized staff to submit proposed fare recommendations to SANDAG for consideration that, if adopted, would be implemented in July 2018. 3. Engaging with customers via survey to garner feedback about NCTD’s services. Page 5 of 38 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS NCTD’s performance is impacted by both internal and external factors. External factors that must be considered include, but are not limited to: the number of weekdays, number of days of inclement weather, number of railroad closures, the unemployment rate and average cost of gasoline. The table below provides information regarding these key external factors: Table 1: External Factors Impacting Ridership External Factors FY16 Q3 FY17 Q3 Variance Weekdays 64 65 1.6% Days of Inclement Weather 20 15 -25% Rail Construction Shutdown Days 10 10 0% Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.4% -8.0% Average Cost of Gallon of Gasoline 2.79 2.74 -1.9% It is also important to note that overall transit ridership on a national basis is trending downward as indicated in the media reports identified below: BART Ridership Slumps; Board Mulls Service Cuts, Fare Increases (http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/02/23/bart-ridership-continues-to-decline- board-mulls-service-cuts-fare-increases) New York MTA subway ridership dropped in 2016; first decline since 2009 (http://www.amny.com/transit/mta-subway-ridership-dropped-in-2016-first- decline-since-2009-1.13157843) Why Public Transit Ridership Is Down In Most U.S. Cities (http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2017/03/21/public-transit-ridership-down) FY17 Quarter 3 compared with FY16 Quarter 3 performance is as follows: BREEZE bus on-time performance was 90.2%, up from last year’s performance of 88.4%. COASTER

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