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Climate: Observations, Projections and Impacts: Bangladesh

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Climate: Observations, Projections and Impacts: Bangladesh Climate: Observations, projections and impacts: Bangladesh Met Office Simon N. Gosling, University of Nottingham Robert Dunn, Met Office Fiona Carrol, Met Office Nikos Christidis, Met Office John Fullwood, Met Office Diogo de Gusmao, Met Office Nicola Golding, Met Office Lizzie Good, Met Office Trish Hall, Met Office Lizzie Kendon, Met Office John Kennedy, Met Office Kirsty Lewis, Met Office Rachel McCarthy, Met Office Carol McSweeney, Met Office Colin Morice, Met Office David Parker, Met Office Matthew Perry, Met Office Peter Stott, Met Office Kate Willett, Met Office Myles Allen, University of Oxford Nigel Arnell, Walker Institute, University of Reading Dan Bernie, Met Office Richard Betts, Met Office Niel Bowerman, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Bastiaan Brak, University of Leeds John Caesar, Met Office Andy Challinor, University of Leeds Rutger Dankers, Met Office Fiona Hewer, Fiona's Red Kite Chris Huntingford, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Alan Jenkins, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Nick Klingaman, Walker Institute, University of Reading Kirsty Lewis, Met Office Ben Lloyd-Hughes, Walker Institute, University of Reading Jason Lowe, Met Office Rachel McCarthy, Met Office James Miller, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Robert Nicholls, University of Southampton Maria Noguer, Walker Institute, University of Reading Friedreike Otto, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Paul van der Linden, Met Office Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia The country reports were written by a range of climate researchers, chosen for their subject expertise, who were drawn from institutes across the UK. Authors from the Met Office and the University of Nottingham collated the contributions in to a coherent narrative which was then reviewed. The authors and contributors of the reports are as above. Developed at the request of: Climate: Observations, projections and impacts Research conducted by: Bangladesh We have reached a critical year in our response to There is already strong scientific evidence that the climate change. The decisions that we made in climate has changed and will continue to change Cancún put the UNFCCC process back on track, saw in future in response to human activities. Across the us agree to limit temperature rise to 2 °C and set us in world, this is already being felt as changes to the the right direction for reaching a climate change deal local weather that people experience every day. to achieve this. However, we still have considerable work to do and I believe that key economies and Our ability to provide useful information to help major emitters have a leadership role in ensuring everyone understand how their environment has a successful outcome in Durban and beyond. changed, and plan for future, is improving all the time. But there is still a long way to go. These To help us articulate a meaningful response to climate reports – led by the Met Office Hadley Centre in change, I believe that it is important to have a robust collaboration with many institutes and scientists scientific assessment of the likely impacts on individual around the world – aim to provide useful, up to date countries across the globe. This report demonstrates and impartial information, based on the best climate that the risks of a changing climate are wide-ranging science now available. This new scientific material and that no country will be left untouched by climate will also contribute to the next assessment from the change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I thank the UK’s Met Office Hadley Centre for their However, we must also remember that while we hard work in putting together such a comprehensive can provide a lot of useful information, a great piece of work. I also thank the scientists and officials many uncertainties remain. That’s why I have put in from the countries included in this project for their place a long-term strategy at the Met Office to work interest and valuable advice in putting it together. ever more closely with scientists across the world. I hope this report will inform this key debate on one Together, we’ll look for ways to combine more and of the greatest threats to humanity. better observations of the real world with improved computer models of the weather and climate; which, The Rt Hon. Chris Huhne MP, Secretary of State for over time, will lead to even more detailed and Energy and Climate Change confident advice being issued. Julia Slingo, Met Office Chief Scientist Introduction Understanding the potential impacts of climate change is essential for informing both adaptation strategies and actions to avoid dangerous levels of climate change. A range of valuable national studies have been carried out and published, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has collated and reported impacts at the global and regional scales. But assessing the amount of information about past climate change and its future impacts has been available at Each report contains: data on extreme events. Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC. Dangerous Climate Change programme (AVOID) and supporting literature. through international cooperation. Summary Climate observations Since 1960 there has been widespread warming over Bangladesh during both the hot season (March to May) and cool season (December to February). There has been a reduction of the number of cool nights and an increase in the number of warm nights over the period 1970-200. There has been a small increase in total precipitation over Bangladesh since 1960. Climate change projections For the A1B emissions scenario projected temperature increases over Bangladesh are in the region of 3 to 3.5°C by 2100. The agreement between models is high over the entire country. Precipitation is projected to increase in Bangladesh under the A1B emission scenario. Increases of up to 20% could occur in the north of the country with increases of 5- 10% more typical through the rest of the country. Agreement across the CMIP3 ensemble is moderate to high. Climate change impact projections Crop yields Most of the global- and regional-scale studies project a decrease in the yields of rice and maize, two of Bangladesh’s major crops, as a consequence of climate change. However the magnitude of the CO2 fertilisation effect may yet determine whether crop yield losses or gains are realised under climate change. This represents a major source of uncertainty in crop projections. 1 Food security Bangladesh is currently a country with moderately high levels of undernourishment. Global-scale studies included here generally suggest that parts of Bangladesh could face worsening food security over the next 40 years. National-scale studies included here show that Bangladesh’s food security is highly vulnerable to the impact of future flooding. Water stress and drought There are currently few studies on the impact of climate change on water stress and drought in Bangladesh, especially at the national scale. From the few global and regional assessments available, climate change projections suggest that Bangladesh could be exposed to moderate to high water stress with climate change. Recent simulations by the AVOID programme broadly agree with global- and regional-scale studies that project an increase in water stress for Bangladesh as a whole. However, the uncertainty in the projected changes is large. Pluvial flooding and rainfall Recent studies indicate an increase in mean and extreme precipitation over Bangladesh. This supports conclusions from the IPCC AR4. However, large uncertainties remain, particularly with respect to how the large-scale Asian monsoon system might respond to climate change and changes in precipitation associated with tropical cyclones. Fluvial flooding A number of studies suggest that fluvial flooding could increase in Bangladesh with climate change. 2 Simulations by the AVOID programme confirm this, with a large majority of simulations showing an increase in average annual flood risk, particularly by the end of the century and under the SRES A1B emission scenario. Tropical cyclones Estimates of future tropical cyclone damages in Bangladesh due to climate change are highly uncertain. The population is highly vulnerable to such damages owing to the country's topography and limited resources for adaptation. Coastal regions Several studies show that Bangladesh is one of the countries on the globe that is most vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) impacts. More than 30% of the cultivable land in Bangladesh is in the coastal area. A 10% intensification of the current 1-in-100-year storm surge combined with a 1m SLR could affect around 23% of Bangladesh’s total coastal land area. Out of 84 developing countries, Bangladesh was in the top 10 most impacted, in terms of population, GDP, urban area and agricultural land affected by a simulated 1m SLR combined with a 10% intensification of the current 1-in-100-year storm surge. 3 4 Table of Contents Chapter 1 – Climate Observations ........................................................................ 9 Rationale ............................................................................................................................... 10 Climate overview .................................................................................................................. 12 Analysis of long-term features in the mean temperature .................................................... 13 Temperature extremes .......................................................................................................
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